After a long hiatus marked by minimal diplomatic interactions, Pakistan and the US have witnessed a significant renewal in their engagement over the past few months. This discernible reset in US-Pakistan relations is characterized by enhanced defence cooperation, economic agreements, and high-level symbolism. Pakistan’s Army Chief has made two official visits to the US in as many months, reflecting a change in the approach of the US. Unprecedented invitations to a private White House lunch with President Donald Trump and the change of command at CENTCOM highlight the reestablishment of close military-to-military and diplomatic ties. The Trump administration has also recalibrated its approach to Pakistan, unveiling a “massive” oil exploration and development deal, and discussing broader cooperation in critical minerals, trade, technology, and counterterrorism. Although several factors have contributed to this shift, media coverage has particularly emphasized Pakistan’s endorsement of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as a personal glorification, along with the signing of a deal with World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency firm connected to the US President’s family. Underlying strategic reasons include possible future assistance in addressing Iran if required, changing regional dynamics marked by rising US-India trade tensions, new US tariffs on Indian goods, and Washington’s growing frustration with India over its increasing purchases of Russian oil and arms. Unlike in the past, Pakistan is positioning itself as a multidimensional partner of the US to enhance its leverage, not just as a security enabler.

The use of terrorism against India as an instrument of state policy by Pakistan began in 1989. Pakistan’s importance to Washington has fluctuated—peaking during periods such as the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, US military engagement in Afghanistan post-9/11, and more recently when Pakistan has been viewed as a facilitator in the Afghan peace process. Historically, terrorist activities in J&K have tended to increase whenever Pakistan’s strategic utility to the United States has risen. Relying on US support as a shield, Islamabad has perceived greater latitude to support proxy war operations with reduced fear of international repercussions and strong punitive measures. During these periods, Pakistan has benefited from increased political leverage and aid flows, while militant groups operating in J&K have often found greater freedom of action. The highest numbers of terrorist killings in J&K occurred during the 1990s and early 2000s, which were the peak years of militancy. During this period, a large portion of the overall casualties—estimated at around 41,000 deaths, including civilians, security personnel, and terrorists—took place. In the 2010s, escalations in terror attacks like the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack coincided with critical moments in US-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan. Therefore, empirically, the Kargil conflict of 1999 and other surges in violence occurred during or just after periods of intense US-Pakistan cooperation. However, despite periods of global anti-terror pressure, infrastructure and support for militants have persisted in Pakistan, with the involvement of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in training, arming, and financing these groups.

Operation Sindoor, initiated on May 7, 2025, in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 innocent civilians, achieved its strategic and military objectives decisively. These objectives were to punish the perpetrators and planners of terror, destroy their infrastructure, demonstrate resolve, raise costs, impose caution on Pakistan, and thus restore deterrence that had waned since the Balakot air strikes five years ago. India has also adopted a declaratory policy on May 10, stating that any future act of terror will be considered an act of war against the country and will be responded to accordingly. This being an inflection point, the India-Pakistan equation has changed permanently by introducing the certainty of retaliation to every attack. However, it is important to distinguish between high-profile terrorist attacks like Mumbai, Uri, Pulwama, and Pahalgam, and localized, low-intensity terrorist incidents in J&K, which has been suffering from militancy abetted by Pakistan since the late 1980s. These low-intensity attacks, which have been occurring in J&K regularly, cannot be construed as a loss of deterrence.

Now, with Pakistan’s utility to the US having surged, it will be emboldened to continue the proxy war against India and keep tensions simmering. Therefore, terrorist actions below the tolerance threshold—restricted to J&K, targeted killings of migrants, tactical actions on the Line of Control (LC), and trans-LC firing—are likely to continue. The current estimated number of active terrorists in J&K, according to police and intelligence reports, is around 120, with 61 being foreign terrorists. Therefore, to make up numbers, a spike in infiltration of terrorists across the borders in J&K is very likely in the next few months before winter snows make passage across the LC in Kashmir difficult. Murmurs of statehood being restored in J&K are also likely to build pressure on Pakistan to direct terrorist handlers to initiate incidents to demonstrate that it is a disputed territory. These efforts will be complemented by increased narcotics smuggling—especially using drones—incitement of communal violence, and the smuggling of fake Indian currency notes, among other activities aimed at destabilizing India.

This can be related to recent media reports and intelligence inputs alluding to Pakistan having reactivated and rebuilt over 15 terrorist training camps and launch pads within the last 90 days in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), following India’s Operation Sindoor. Pakistan’s ISI and other government agencies are reportedly providing substantial funding—estimated at more than PKR100 crore—and logistical support to rebuild these camps. The reconstructed camps are smaller in size to avoid detection and are equipped with advanced technological counter-surveillance measures such as radar camouflage, satellite masking, and drone usage. These camps are located across various places in POK, including Kel, Shardi, Dudhniyal, Athmuqam, Jura, Leepa Valley, Tandpani, Nayyali, Jankot, Chakothi, and others. Additionally, four launch pads along the International Border in the Jammu region have also been reactivated. The terrorists are apparently using lessons from Operation Sindoor by employing smaller camps of about two dozen militants and dispersing locations to evade Indian intelligence and military forces. The rebuilt infrastructure efficiently supports recruitment, training, and operational planning for attacks in J&K.

Until US interests shift and Pakistan feels greater pressure to curb such activities again, the security forces need to retain and sustain a robust counter-infiltration posture on the LC, as well as an extensive counter-terrorism grid in the depth areas of J&K, irrespective of overall violence levels. At present, there is no room for complacency or lowering the guard, given the improved security situation in J&K. The gains made by the security forces should not be squandered at this stage.

The author is a former Vice Chief of Army Staff

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The 1994 parliamentary resolution which Rajnath Singh referred to read, “On behalf of the people of India we firmly declare that the state of Jammu & Kashmir has been, is and shall be an integral part of India and any attempts to separate it from the rest of the country will be resisted by all necessary means…. India has the will and capacity to firmly counter all designs against its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity and demands that Pakistan must vacate the areas of the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir, which they have occupied through aggression and resolves that all attempts to interfere with the internal affairs of India will be met resolutely.’ 

Many would describe this as adventurism of the kind Russia has engaged in to capture areas in Ukraine.

Gilgit-Baltistan is right in the north of the Ladakh part of united Jammu & Kashmir. The Corps Commander of 15 Corps in Srinagar was asked to react to what the defence minister said. He said if orders came to march North, all forces are ready. We are refining our forces’ conventional capabilities. When it is required there should be no looking back.

This was not the first time when India had said that in its efforts to push towards Akhand Bharat “We will reclaim Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK).” As recently as in September 2019 the foreign minister said, “POK is part of India and we expect one day that we will have physical jurisdiction over.” Removal of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution has sent an unambiguous signal that J&K is not negotiable and all that has to be settled is PoK and Baltistan, he added.

All this is happening when Pakistan looks extremely feeble with a round of political infighting.

Sometimes politicians need to make statements which will boost the morale of the country but this was not something that was happening in isolation over the last few days or years, rather the prime minister and his ministers’ statements have been coming out with quite regularity.

Strategic Opportunity

If you go by a geostrategic precedent. In 1962 – Russia and the United States were teetering on the brink of a nuclear war.

If India were to choose a geostrategic window for carrying out this operation, it could not have had anything better.

When Shahbaz Sharif took charge in Pakistan, we had a segment in the Indian establishment that felt that he was Nawaz Sharif’s brother. India thought there was a window to improve relations with Pakistan and had reached out to Nawaz Sharif. He had reciprocated very well before Gen Musharraf torpedoed that peace initiative. But on the ground, Pakistan’s military establishment and ISI complex – the Deep State – calls the shots. It matters very little who is the political face in Islamabad. It is just a democratic facade.

The Pakistan Army and ISI have been making a concerted effort to revive the terrorist movements both in J&K and Punjab. This is not a friendly act. India agreed to a ceasefire when they needed it most, when they were trying to take over Afghanistan. It was, perhaps, geostrategically rather short-sighted.

India has given Pakistan full opportunity to show if they would be interested in peace. Their economy is collapsing, the ethnic fault lines are most exacerbated and the political turmoil does not make it wise for Pakistan to have India on the wrong side.

Does India Have the Capacity?

If India were to execute the march north to Gilgit-Baltistan, the armed forces would realise that mountains eat up troops. The Indian Army is already stretched with its deployment in Northern Command on the LAC versus China. on the LOC and the AGPL. Huge number of troops are deployed but they are stretched to control the area in their possession.

Military operations of attack require the forces to have at least a 3-to-1 superiority with a lot of fire power to be able to capture an objective like a hill or a dominating ground the ration goes up. If a battalion is holding a feature, then a brigade level attack goes in, if a brigade is holding it, then at least a division is required. In the case of mountains even higher troop levels are required.

The idea to capture Skardu-Gilgit was first mooted by Gen Sunderji as the Army chief while planning exercise Brasstacks. Ravi Rikhi in his book “1984 The Fourth Round”, suggested that operational model but it never happened for a variety of political reasons.

Pakistan may be in political turmoil but the Army is still capable of holding its own in a defensive scenario. That territory is a conjunction between China’s steady in roads into the Northern Areas where the Chinese have invested at least $26 billion in four or five dams. They are going to invest more because water is part of China’s strategy for global dominance.

At the time of the Kargil War, prime minister Vajpayee in his wisdom did not allow the armed forces to cross Line of Control. Gen Musharraf went in to Kargil to divide the sanctity of the LoC. With these actions, the LoC got sanctified. World opinion will go against India if we cross the LoC at a time when prime minister Modi himself has maintained that this is not the era of wars. He said so about Chinese expansionism and he told Putin publicly on his actions in Ukraine.

Wars cost money and basic calculation is about Rs 5,000 crores upwards every week. Military operations are not only expensive, they have the knack of escalating out of control, no matter what the results of war gaming say. This operation is not going to finish in three days. Gen Sunderji told prime minister Rajiv Gandhi that Indian forces could finish off Sri Lanka’s problems in three days but the armed forces got stuck there for almost two years.

Echoing the views of the defence minister is fine, but the Corps Commanders, the Northern Army Commander and the Army Chief should privately and professionally caution the political leadership that rhetoric apart, a situation like 1962 must be avoided until the forces are fully prepared.

The Folly of War

The Pakistani Army have a tight grip over the entire POK and Northern Areas. There is no real political freedom in either of the two regions and the military establishment calls the shots. Although liberation of Kashmir is a misnomer, Pakistanis are made to believe that they will fight for Kashmiris and their ‘freedom’.

If the Indian armed forces are to carry out any operations in Pok or in Gilgit-Baltistan, it would be a declaration of war. It will not be a Limited War but an all-out war under a nuclear overhang. We cannot adopt a cavalier approach.

With the kind of involvement and involvement the Chinese have made in Pakistan, it will effectively mean a very active two-front situation. No general in any army ever wants to fight on two fronts simultaneously. A two-front war can only be a defensive one.

The defence minister has, perhaps, rattled the cage, not so much because of some domestic political dividend but to put the Pakistanis on the defensive. In the past the Pakistanis kept talking about and threatening to wrest Kashmir from India. India was always seen to be on the defensive.

It will put the Pakistanis on the backfoot and rattle them into thinking that India might do something like that However, seen in the larger context, the defence minister statement was incongruent to what the prime minister Modi told the Russian president that “this is not an era of war.”

India should not fight a war, which it has not won already. In the 1971 War, India had already won the world when it started fighting. It is also important to enhance comprehensive National Power before engaging in any aggressive action.

India is rising but it has a multitude of problems. While there is no need to keep quiet and show that we have the prowess, and put the enemy on the defensive, it is quite another to start exercising that voice. It must be considered that the enemy’s economy will sink but what happens to your own economy at time must also be considered.

Initiating war under a nuclear environment, with a two-front situation, when the when the world is in a flux would be a folly, which is best avoided.

Voids Must Be Made Up

In the last two years of Covid pandemic, India armed forces stopped all recruitment. Sixty thousand men go out every year on pension. We are about 1,50,000 to 2,00,000 lakh troops short in the Indian army right now. Recruitment of Agniveers has opened up. The first step that is required is to speed up getting manpower, otherwise like Russia, we would start the conflict and then start mobilizing. In India, we have a major manpower versus equipment debate. Russia is not short of weapons but because of shortage of manpower they have been hit hard. There are clear lessons for us here.

War is the domain of risk. If you go back to the initial operations of the Second World War, when Hitler’s generals told him you cannot go. With the Blitzkrieg tactics he was able to bluff his way through.

If the armed forces are ordered to get the whole of POK, of course they have to prepare. The Air Force will have to come up to 45 squadrons, the Army will have to get the medium artillery induction speeded up. All shortages have to be made up.

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Notwithstanding statements from mainstream political parties and separatist organisations condemning the violence, many Kashmiri Pandit and Sikh employees abstained from work or took leave temporarily, worried about their security. This is an unfortunate outcome. News reports suggest serious attempts to target businessmen, aimed at sending a message to non-Muslims who have been staying here peacefully for decades. Targeted killings of prominent citizens belonging to the minority communities in the Kashmir valley during October created an atmosphere of panic and fear.

The Resistance Front (TRF), which draws its cadre from the Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attacks.

In Kashmir, 25 unarmed and innocent people have been killed in a similar pattern this year including off-duty policemen and security personnel on leave. Of them, ten were in Srinagar and four each in Pulwama and Anantnag, with the rest being spread across the valley. Six of the seven killed in October were from the minority community, adding to concerns and triggering debates on migration.

More civilians than security forces’ personnel have been killed in terrorist-related incidents this year in Jammu and Kashmir, reversing a six-year trend, pointing towards concerted efforts by Pakistan-backed Islamist terror groups and handlers to create a communal situation that could trigger an exodus of Hindus and Sikhs.

Despite the intelligence inputs, it is once again proving difficult for the state in Kashmir to provide protection for minorities.
The purpose of these attacks is to draw a response from the state. There can be two responses. The first is a wider and deper combing for terrorists inside Kashmir. The second is to go after groups supported by Pakistan and inside Pakistan.

Enemy Tactics

Pakistan’s ISI has been compelled to devise a new approach. J&K Police describe these targeted shootings as ‘hybrid warfare’, a new approach adopted by militants who according to the police are employing overground workers to kill ‘soft targets.’

This form of killing is gaining ground as, in comparison, known terrorists are identified, located and eliminated at a fast pace. With few successful infiltration attempts, Pakistan-based terrorists are reduced in numbers. With better human intelligence and electronic monitoring their locations are being detected, resulting in successful encounters. With local support waning, Pakistani terrorists are forced into hiding in jungles and hills. Locals who join militant ranks lack training and motivation; hence they have very short life spans once they pick up the gun.

In this changed strategy the weapons employed would change from long range AKs to pistols and grenades.

Current attacks in cities are based either on shooting from close range or throwing grenades on security force pickets or in crowded areas. An added aim is that such incidents could enhance communal divide, initially in the valley, subsequently spreading across the nation. For such operations, the modules created would be small with limited inter-connectivity. In case one is neutralized, others continue. Finally, India cannot blame Pakistan directly as incidents involve locals, mainly Over Ground Workers (OGWs).

Pakistan is exploiting the current Indian security policy in the valley, where security forces hesitate to act arbitrarily, to prevent youth from going astray and joining militant ranks. While crackdown on OGWs continue, there are many who remain below police radars. These are now being employed as killers.

This change in strategy necessitates a change in approach by security forces. The intention should be to locate and break these modules. The first stage must include increased monitoring including enhancing local intelligence networks. Secondly, random patrolling must be increased. Third should be to exploit informational space to convince the public of Pakistan’s designs and also seek inputs on possible suspects with promises of rewards. This needs care as in some cases individuals would pass information based on personal grievances.

Operations in such scenarios are intelligence driven and led by the police with other forces acting on tip offs. Human intelligence will play a critical role.

Every new approach by terrorists succeeds in initial stages. They possess the advantage as they have chosen the direction as also the date, time and place of killing innocents. With passage of time, these networks will be located and broken down.

Reactions from Administration and Society

Beyond the condemnation from the polity, civil society in such situations must take the initiative to foster communal amity and to mobilise people across communities against hatred. Appeals by some masjids in Srinagar requesting the public to show solidarity with the victims and to prevent the furthering of fear among Kashmiri Pandits is a welcome step indicating an intention to not let the situation deteriorate to what happened in the early 1990s.

The UT administration followed up with a strong crackdown on the insurgency seeking to isolate and quell the militant network that is allegedly responsible for the attacks. While the reactions from the polity and civil society and the administrative actions by the Government are necessary, they are not sufficient to restore normalcy in the Valley.

The suspension of the polity with the absence of an elected Assembly, and the stasis and alienation that had set in since the abrogation of J&K’s special status, its bifurcation and designation as a Union Territory would make the job of administration even more difficult. An immediate renewal of political dialogue to address this along with the restoration of Statehood and the complete resumption of political and press freedoms will help create the environment to isolate and tackle terror in the region.

Comments

The security establishment and the civil administration have a huge task on their hand to instil a sense of security and calm. Amid the gloom, the strong condemnation of the brutal acts of violence, cutting across political, religious and ideological lines, is the balm Kashmir needs badly. Kashmir has seen too much blood and tears to allow any repeat of the horrors of the past.
As there is a reset on strategy to hunt down the terror groups and a review of the threat perception of the vulnerable, there is a paramount need to involve political leaders, community representatives and the civil society to ensure communal harmony, and dispel anxieties. A political dialogue — difficult as it surely is after the scrapping of Article 370 and the events that followed — may still be a work in progress, but active engagement can be quite handy in effective public messaging, given the circumstances.

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In a major accomplishment for the security forces, four Pakistan-based terrorists belonging to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), were wiped out in an encounter near NagrotaBan Toll Plaza in Jammu & Kashmir on 19 November. The terrorists were trying to reach Srinagar in a truck. One police constable was injured in the encounter.

According to the J&K Police, the terrorists crossed the International Border in Jammu and were met by a courier in a truck at a pre-designated spot on the national highway south of Samba. The truck was supposed to ferry them to Kashmir but was stopped at the Ban toll naka in Jammu, based on specific inputs generated by intelligence agencies. When the police tried to check the truck, the terrorists opened fire, leading to two injuries among the policemen. In the gunfight that followed, all four terrorists were killed.

The 19 November encounter was a huge setback for the terror group, given how heavily Asghar had invested in their training and infiltration.

Tunnel Used to Infiltrate

Border Security Force said professional engineering expertise had gone into digging the 200-metre tunnel under the border fence the tunnel in Pakistan’s Shakargarh area was a surprise. What surprised investigators was the engineering detail that went into construction of the tunnel used by the Nagrota attackers to reach the pick-up point at Jatwal, 12 km from the international border. The tunnel, probably constructed with the help of Pakistani Rangers, was 200 metres long with enough space for terrorists to walk upright and cross the border. The tunnel was 40 metres long on the Pakistani side.

ALSO READ: Indian Army’s Response to Pak Terror Attacks in 2020

The terrorists had been receiving their orders the top commanders of the terror outfit, Mufti Rauf Asghar and QariZarar. Asghar is the younger brother of UN designated global terrorist Masood Azhar who leads the terror group.

Smartphones manufactured by Q Mobile, a Pakistani company recovered from the killed terrorists revealed that they had been receiving updates and messages from their handler in Pakistan.

J&K Police investigations have revealed that the Jaish terrorists had been sent with the specific task of carrying out a large attack ahead of the District Development Council (DDC) polls to derail the entire election process.

Police recovered 11 AK assault rifles, 24 magazines and 7.5 kg of RDX along with 20 m of IED wire and six detonators. Recoveries include one Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL), 29 grenades, five rifle grenades, three pistols with six magazines, a wireless set and a GPS. The four were also carrying 6.5 kilograms of nitrocellulose mixed with fuel oil, an explosive used in shaped charges.

Medicines recovered from the terrorists include painkillers, antibiotics to fight diarrhoea, Unani medicines, injections and surgical gauze. They have all been manufactured by Pakistani companies such as Lahore Medical Instruments Pvt Ltd (Kasur), Qarshi Industries (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Sami Pharmaceuticals (Karachi), Rehman Rainbow Pvt Ltd (Lahore) and Sanofi-Aventis Pakistan Ltd (Karachi).

Since August 2019, over 200 terrorists have been gunned down, including over 30 foreigners, in intelligence-driven precise operations by security forces in Jammu & Kashmir.

Terrorists Facing Problems

Mufti Rauf Asghar, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) operational commander, who had coordinated the infiltration of the heavily-armed operatives into India told Jaish terrorists in Kashmir that it was becoming difficult to supply them the necessary “items”, a reference to explosives and weapons. Asghar sent the message soon after the gun battle at Ban toll plaza.

Mufti Asghar is the younger brother of JeMchief and UN designated global terrorist Masood Azhar who is reported to have been under treatment for a life-threatening spine aliment. Asghar is considered the terror group’s de facto chief in his elder brother’s absence and had overseen the infiltration of the four terrorists from Bahawalpur in Pakistan’s Punjab province.

ALSO READ: Digital Footprint of Terrorism in Kashmir

Investigations into the encounter revealed the involvement of JeM operational commander Kasim Jan, the principal accused in the 2016 Pathankot air base attack. Jan is one of the main launch commanders of Jaish terrorists into India and has links with underground workers all over South Kashmir. He reports directly to Mufti Rauf Asghar, the de-facto chief of the UN designated global terrorist group.

According to intelligence reports, terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is also mobilising cadres from its Chelabandi camp in Muzaffarabad to fresh locations in Neelum Valley across the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan. And the Hizbul Mujahideen training nearly 400 cadres at a newly constructed facility in the forest area of Oghi in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).

The Jaish, intelligence reports indicate, is not the only one feeling the heat. According to one input, the Al Badr group is exploring ways to infiltrate into India from Bangladesh after security forces tightened the security grid across the LoC in Kashmir.

Pakistan Under Pressure

Indian intelligence officials suspect the attempt to carry out terror strikes at high-value targets could be a diversionary tactic by the Pakistani army and ISI chiefs, under pressure from Opposition parties in the country, to bring the focus back on Kashmir.

With the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and resurgence of the Taliban, its Deobandi ideological brother Jaish has got hyperactive across the Jammu & Kashmir border with no less than 14 specially trained terrorists waiting at Gujaranwala to infiltrate into India.

“Nearly 200 terrorists of mixed tanzeems are waiting at launch pads across the Line of Control (LoC) to infiltrate into India. We are picking up revival of Al-Badr group as well as creation of another terror front Lashkar-e-Mustafa, headed by one Hidyatullah Malik, and other Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) group training another 23 terrorists at Jangal-Mangal camp in Khyber-Paktunkhwa,” said another security official.

Pakistan-based terrorist groups have become especially active after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and have been preparing for a major drive in Jammu and Kashmir, according to intelligence reports. The Al Badr group is exploring ways to infiltrate into India from Bangladesh after security forces have turned the heat on infiltration across LoC in Kashmir.

Diplomatic Offensive

Soon after the Nagrota encounter of 19 November, prime minister Narendra Modi held a review meeting with home minister Amit Shah, national security advisor (NSA) AjitDoval, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and top intelligence establishment. It had been found that the terrorists were planning a “major attack” on the anniversary of the 26/11 terror attack. It was decided to step up its diplomatic campaign to hold Pakistan accountable.

The ministry of external affairs (MEA) summoned an official of the Pakistan high commission in Delhi over the encounter, on 21 November, and conveyed India’s strong concern to Pakistan over terror attack planned by JeM in J&K. A protest was lodged demanding Pakistan stops supporting terrorists operating from their territory.

Diplomats Briefed

Foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla informed a select group of Heads of Missions on 23 November about the discovery of a cross-border tunnel that was allegedly used by the militants to reach the Indian territory. They were provided with a detailed information docket giving the details of the incident as it transpired as well as a list of items and munition that were recovered from the terrorists clearly indicating their Pakistani origins.

Shringla said the attackers were clearly planning the biggest terror attack in India since the Pulwama strike in February 14, 2019. The diplomats were told that the attack appeared to be part of efforts to sabotage the DDC elections in Jammu & Kashmir and was designed to “coincide with the anniversary of 26/11 Mumbai terror strikes”.

ALSO READ: Will Pakistan Escape FATF’s Black-listing?

The Indian side highlighted the secret tunnel unearthed beneath the International Border in Jammu’s Samba Sector on Sunday and said the four militants who were killed in the encounter on November 19 used the tunnel to carry out their plans.

Shringla briefed the envoys about the past attacks by the Jaish-e-Mohammad in Jammu and Kashmir, saying that “…in the year 2020 itself we have seen 200 incidents of terrorist violence and neutralisation of 199 terrorists”.

The briefing was the first in a new series of interaction with foreign diplomats which will consist of small groups in view of the COVID-19 concerns.

Multi-pronged Strategy

Indian missions were also instructed to pass on details of the “information docket” handed over, which included details of the encounter in Nagrota between the suspected terrorists hiding in a truck and security forces, as well as the AK-47 rifles, 29 grenades and 7.5 kg of RDX explosive material the men allegedly had. That this was no ordinary encounter was evidenced from the prime minister’s statement, calling it a “nefarious attempt to target grassroots level democratic exercises in Jammu and Kashmir”, a reference to the District Development Council elections due to start on November 28.

By apprising the international community, it would seem the government has a multi-pronged strategy. The first imperative is to ensure that the full implications of the aborted attack and what could have occurred are understood worldwide, and the threat India continues to face from cross-border terror is acknowledged. In addition, any actions India takes against terror threats the Army perceives along the LoC this point on will be considered retaliatory. The second is to put Pakistan, which has itself been making allegations about a terror threat from India, squarely on notice. Pakistan still faces the final FATF decision in February 2021 on whether it will be blacklisted for its inability to curb terror financing and to shut down groups such as the JeM and the LeT, and the Imran Khan government would be better positioned in fulfilling the action plan it has been tasked with rather than flashing unsubstantiated dossiers with counter-claims against India.

Eventually, India’s success lies in protecting its borders, as done in Nagrota, and by providing a peaceful and stable environment in J&K so as to restart the much-delayed democratic process there, despite all attempts to derail it.

Vice-President M Venkaiah Naidu has called upon the world community to come together to isolate nations that sponsor terrorism and impose sanctions against them. Observing that no country was safe from terrorism, he said the days of platitude were over and it was time for concrete action.

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TRF is an amateur group created on 12 October 2019, virtually on Telegram. In its nascent stage, the Indian intelligence community and the Indian Army decoded its make and model and declared it was an extended hand of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

It was a ploy by Pakistan to revive its terror operations in Kashmir under a new name much similar to the Hamas, an acronym of the Arabic phrase ‘Harakat al-Muq wama al-Isl-miyya’,  meaning “Islamic Resistance Movement”.

Threat and Intent

Hostile social manipulation poses a larger threat than an active militancy itself. The virtual footprint of a terrorist’s image are birth grounds for otherwise amateurish terrorists like Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa. Their death has been encashed to further radicalise and recruit more innocent youth. Greater number of recruits for radical Islam-based terrorist organisations is a good indicator of radical Islamists’ hold in a conflict zone. In other words, the fire is still burning and the fuel will continue to be poured.

Numerous Islamist groups were formed in 1990 advocating Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of Muhammad) as the objective of their struggle. Murder of Kashmiri Hindus, intellectuals, liberals and activists was described as a necessity to get rid of ‘un-Islamic’ elements. Concurrently, all ‘sinful’ activities like cinema houses, beauty parlours, wine shops, bars, video centres, use of cosmetics and similar things were banned by the militant groups.

LeT, formed in 1987, is the armed wing of the Pakistan- based religious organization, Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI), a Sunni anti-US missionary organization led by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed. The group construes lands once ruled by Muslims as Muslim lands and considers it as their duty to get them back. It embraces a pan-Islamist rationale for military action. LeT believes that jihad is the duty of all Muslims and must be waged until eight objectives are met:

•             Establishing Islam as the dominant way of life in the world.

•             Forcing disbelievers to pay Jizya (a tax on non-Muslims).

•             Fighting for the weak and feeble against oppressors.

•             Exacting revenge for killed Muslims.

•             Punishing enemies for violating oaths and treaties.

•             Defending all Muslim states.

•             Recapturing occupied Muslim territory.

The Digital Footprint

The geography of cyberspace is much more mutable than other environments. Low barriers to entry make it an attractive option for hybrid warfare especially popular amongst international terrorists and rogues states like Pakistan with abysmal financial resources. Some experts believe that as virtual communities develop on the internet, they will cut across territorial jurisdictions and develop their own pattern of governance.

The key characteristics of any influence operation is its speed and reach.

Scrapping of Article 370 was a much-required political move to resolve the stalemate situation in Jammu & Kashmir. For decades, the stalemate situation otherwise provided fertile grounds for numerous back door deals between non-state actors and other organisations.

Analysis of open data on Twitter reveals that there was a spike in new accounts from October 2019 to March 2020, dedicated to promote terrorism in Kashmir or Pakistani narrative in Kashmir. Most of the accounts were from Pakistan. (See images).

There was a co-dependence trend observed amongst the newly created accounts wherein every new account was boosted by an already existing pool of similar accounts. These could not be classified under bots, trolls or sock puppets. These were multiple accounts organically created which were boosting terror-related content on social media.

Other kinds of twitter accounts are online media channels dedicated to Kashmir.

The online medium is primarily used by the terrorist groups like the ISIS or Al-Qaeda for radicalising young vulnerable minds. In 2009 Al-Qaeda launched an English e-magazine called Jihad Recollections. The ISIS launched ‘Dabiq’ under Al-Hayat (Life) Media Centre — the media house of the Islamic State. It was named after a famous Syrian town near the Turkish border where the ‘believers’ battled against the ‘infidels’. The LeT launched its online magazine in 2018 called ‘Wyeth’.

Terrorist organisations in Kashmir have always maintained a euphoria amongst the locals that their fight was for a bigger cause and that the people from different parts of the world were supporting it; that they should rather feel proud and not sad, if their son becomes a ‘Shaheed’ and not a literate civilised peace-loving human being.

It was reported in the beginning of 2020 that Pakistan Army’s media wing Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) was organising competitions every month to award youths whose tweets were retweeted the most. The prizes included a job and contracts with Fauzi Foundation run by the Army. Like other ideas of Pakistan, this one is also borrowed from a state where the word ‘disinformation’ originated.

Defence against Online Radicalisation and Extremism

It is widely established that cutting down access to the Internet cannot be a long-lasting solution. Even in the absence of Internet, there are 15 Pakistan-based FM stations that are active in Jammu & Kashmir spreading propaganda against India.

The Twitter handle of Pakistan’s prime minister Imran Khan is also used for the same purpose, to amplify the narratives.

The counter-strategy cannot be a ‘tit for tat’ or a battle of whose narrative is louder.

Democratic states are more vulnerable to information warfare as they do not believe in building their own cyber-wall like Russia, Iran or China. Hence, the other option is to create cyber policies under which social platforms like Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram and others take a responsible step in preventing radicalisation and extremism.

Big Data giants like Google, Facebook, Amazon, e-Bay and other internet companies that are used every day to track and profile their users have established relations with the US military and intelligence agencies.

According to Yasha Levine, the author of Surveillance Valley, “over the years, Google had supplied mapping technology used by the US Army in Iraq, hosted data for the Central Intelligence Agency, indexed the National Security agency’s vast intelligence databases, built military robots, co-launched a spy satellite with the Pentagon and leased its cloud computing platform to help police departments predict crime.’’

While India satisfies the appetite of data giants as the next promising market, it sure can strike some deals to preserve its own national security interests.

The post Digital Footprint of Terrorism in Kashmir appeared first on IMR.

Senator Mushahid Hussain is Chairman of Pakistan’s Parliamentary Committee on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and founding Chairman of the think tank Pakistan-China Institute. This is an abridged extract of an article which was first published in the Pakistan Army Green Boo 2020. The views expressed do not represent the views of IMR

After the annexation of Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IOJK), it is clear that Modi has bitten off more than he can chew by spawning a crisis that is hitting at the heart of the Indian State, transforming its very character in a manner that it’s narrow-minded, bigoted Establishment could never have anticipated.

Consider the consequences and far-reaching implications of this decision:

•             Modi has divided India on political and communal lines that can have grave implications for Indian national unity and domestic stability.

•             Kashmir has been internationalized in a manner that was never done to this extent not since the 1965 India-Pakistan War, with wholesale condemnation of the Indian action from Beijing to Brussels.

•             The Kashmir dispute has been discussed for the first time in the UN Security Council since the 1998 nuclear tests, when the UN Security Council, on June 6, 1998, passed the last unanimous Resolution # 1172, mentioning Kashmir by name: ”Urges India and Pakistan to resume dialogue between them on all outstanding issues… and encourages them to find mutually acceptable solutions that address the root causes of those tensions, including Kashmir”.

•             Modi’s move has galvanized separatists within India ranging from the Nagas who are now setting new pre-conditions in their talks with New Delhi, for example, seeking their”separate flag and constitution” as part of broader autonomy, while the Sikhs are actively campaigning for a Khalistan Referendum in 2020.

•             China has been alienated since China, now like Pakistan and the Kashmiri people, is directly a party to the dispute because of Modi’s action to partition IOJK and declaring Laddakh a Union Territory. It was, therefore, not surprising that high-powered Chinese Military Delegation that visited Pakistan on August 26, included the People’s Liberation Army Commander for ‘Southern Tibet’, the area on the Chinese side bordering India.

•             The worst possible consequences have been within IOJK where resistance to repression has been rising, with an unprecedented curfew and complete lockdown, complete cutoff of all communication, a situation that did not even prevail during the height of the siege of Stalingrad or Leningrad during World War II. 6000 Kashmir is have been arrested without any charges and sent outside IOJK to jails in India ranging from the octogenarian former Chief Minister Dr. Farooq Abdullah to young teenage girls whose only crime has been to talk of ‘Azadi’ (freedom).

•             While there is a lot of bluff and bluster in Indian posturing, even nuclear sabre-rattling with the August 16 statement of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh questioning the utility of India’s professed “No First Use” policy on nuclear weapons. The fact is that, deep down, the Indian Establishment, particularly the RSS gang led by Modi, combines a curious mixture of hatred and fear of Pakistan. They have what can be termed as a “Mehmood of Ghazni Complex”, in other words, a fear of the Muslim inclination to ‘go against the tide’ to challenge injustice and wrong irrespective of an unequal size or strength! Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni has always been a very fascinating figure for the Hindutva ideologues, who, for them, symbolises what they view as “Muslim hordes from the North” with the Pakistan State seen as his contemporary potential ‘successor’.

Modi, who is from Gujrat, also knows that the famous Somnath Temple, located in his State, was a favourite target of Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni. A deep-seated loathing of Sultan Mehmood is embedded in the Hindutva mindset. In 1978, when the then BJP Chief and Foreign Minister of India, Atal Behari Vajpayee, went on an official visit to Afghanistan, the only special request he made was to visit Ghazni. His Afghan hosts were surprised, they said ”Ghazni is just a small town, it’s not a tourist spot, it has no 5-star hotels, why would you wish to go to such a place?” Vajpayee said ‘Ghazni is like a thorn that continues to hurt us as Sultan Mehmood, the marauder who looted India several times, came from there!” Conversely, Allama Iqbal, who was invited by King Nadir Shah to visit Afghanistan in 1933, also requested for a special visit to Ghazni to pay homage to the memory of Sultan Mehmood, in whose honour he penned a few famous couplets. It is thus no accident that Modi declared his intention to “free India from1200 years of slavery” in his speech to the Indian Parliament on June 12, 2014. Clearly, Modi’s reference is to the period of Muslim domination in India as the British rule lasted for only 200 years.

For Pakistan, it should be clear that an existential threat is posed by Modi’s India as the annexation of IOJK is the most important development for South Asia since 1971, given that the geography of the region has been changed. Modi and his RSS gang are also fervent believers in the notion of “Akhand Bharat” (Greater India). So a fascist India will likely become more aggressive with Pakistan through low-intensity conflict, proxy wars, covert operations, threat of war and nuclear blackmail.

This situation should also be viewed in the context of the new global scenario where the balance of economic and political power is shifting from the West to the East. The 21st Century is an “Asian Century”, particularly China’s transition from a regional to a global power. Then there are makings of a New Cold War with the US National Security Strategy of 2018 terming China and Russia as a “more serious threat than Al Qaeda or ISIS”.

Therefore, Pakistan needs to understand the nature of the challenge posed by Modi’s move:

•             The challenge is multi-dimensional: military, diplomatic, media, legal, all of which require sustaining a long-term strategy over a protracted period for the rest of Modi’s term, at least 3-5 years.

•             70% of the battle is in the domain of public diplomacy and propaganda, the battle of narratives, the ‘battle of ideas’, through media, think tanks, NGOs/civil society, human rights groups, parliamentary diplomacy, keeping up the Kashmiri morale while promoting a cohesive and credible Pakistani narrative, which we can sell at home and abroad.

•             Clarity about the kind of enemy we are facing: this is the die-hard ideological Hindutva crowd who hate Muslims and Pakistan, who presided over the ethnic cleansing of over 2000 Muslims in India’s Gujrat State in 2002, who actually believe in ‘Akhand Bharat’, and who are proud successors of the killers of Mahatma Gandhi. They will give no quarter and we should have no illusions about them either, as they will goto any extent to damage Pakistan.

Given this context, Pakistan needs to pursue a multi-pronged strategy with a kind of clarity and commitment that Pakistani policy makers demonstrated while building the Nuclear Bomb. Once the decision was taken in 1974, the Bomb project was pursued to its logical conclusion in a relentless, single minded manner, irrespective of any pressures and it achieved success when Pakistan detonated its own homemade nuclear device on May 28, 1998, undoubtedly, Pakistan’s finest hour. Such a strategy should target Modi and his RSS gang, and separate them from the broader Indian society and polity that opposes Modi, along with a united front of all Kashmiris and the linkup of the Kashmiri resistance with other insurgencies inside India. Close coordination with China and the rest of the international community through a strategy sustained by national stamina are the need of the hour.

A good example of an unconventional approach is the legal initiative taken by the Kashmir-Khalistan Referendum Front in an American court of law. The 73-page law suit accuses Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah as well as IOJK Commander, Lt Gen Kanwaljeet Singh Dhillon, of carrying out “extra judicial killings, wrongful deaths, crimes against humanity” against Kashmiris. The law suit against the Indian Prime Minister was filed under a Federal American statute, Torture Victim Protection Act of 1991, which allows civil suits on US soil against foreign officials who have violated Human Rights. Similar law suits in European courts, which also have a universal jurisdiction on Human Rights, can embarrass and damage the Indian leadership and expose the crimes that are being committed by them in the IOJK.

For starters, the focus should be on a Pakistani narrative. Indian writer Arundhati Roy’s classic article in The New York Times of August 15, 2019,”Silence is the Loudest Sound” provides some useful pointers, since it says it all:

•             Modi’s annexation of IOJK has a “distinct whiff of colonialism in the air”.

•             ‘RSS is the State’ in Modi’s India.

•             ‘An Architecture of Indian fascism is quickly being put in place’ by Modi and the RSS gang.

•             “There has not been a single year since 1947 when the Indian Army has not been deployed within India’s borders against its ‘own people’. The list is long: IOJK, Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Hyderabad, Assam,…”

To meet this existential threat, Pakistan needs single-minded determination with clarity and commitment. Luckily, Pakistan has got strategic space to pursue the Kashmir cause for the next couple of years due to changes in the regional scenario:

•             Pakistan’s timely ‘course correction’ on the flawed Afghan policy of the past, reinforced by a clampdown on domestic extremism and militancy, Pakistan will no longer be caught in a ‘nutcracker’ like situation of being tied down both on the Western and Eastern borders.

•             President Trump has linked his re-election in2020 with the Afghan peace process in which Pakistan’s role is pivotal, hence, he feels that the road to the White House lies through Pakistan. Sooner than later, the Afghan peace talk will have to be revived.

•             Thanks to China, which is providing strategic “air cover” to Pakistan through CPEC, the Pakistan-China alliance will be further strengthened for the common cause of a joint strategy to counter India.

•             With the Gulf in turmoil and tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the last thing the International Community will want is a conflict between the two South Asian nuclear neighbours.               

After India’s annexation of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the future course of events will depend on three factors. First, while the Indian attempt is to seek a semblance of ‘normalcy’ through the diktat of their bayonets and bullets, with almost a million men under arms trying to enforce the annexation as a fait accompli. The Kashmiri determination to seek “Azadi” which is undeterred by any kind of force, will certainly supercede India’s ‘might is right’ approach as historically ‘right is might’.

Second, Pakistan, as the principal defender of the Kashmiri people and leading exponent of the Kashmir cause, must maintain the resolve and stamina to sustain a long term strategy of supporting the Kashmiri people and resisting Indian hegemony so that the status quo, which is untenable and unacceptable to the Kashmiri people, is changed. Third, the China factor would be key in any strategy as China, being Pakistan’s strategic partner provides Pakistan an entry into the international system, especially the UN Security Council, the G-20 and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

China’s leadership role in world affairs is a plus for Pakistan after having made the successful transition from a regional power to a global power. As Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi stated on March 18, 2019 during his meeting with his Pakistani counterpart: “no matter how things change in the world and the region, China will firmly support Pakistan in upholding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and dignity”.

The China factor is also pivotal for two reasons in the context of Kashmir. China’s voice matters in the councils of power globally and when China speaks for Kashmir, that voice is heard loud and clear. An assertive China now has a global voice that resonates in key world capitals. As President Xi Jinping told the Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 18, 2017 that “China has now become a great power in the world and it is time for us take centre stage in the world and to make a greater contribution to humankind.”

The other factor is China’s growing military might which was on display during the massive October 1, 2019, Chinese National Day military parade in Beijing, which shows that China now has the military prowess as well as the political will and the economic clout to pursue its interests in the region and the world. A key component of those interests is China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan which, as the China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on September 24, 2019, is “unbreakable”.

The biggest challenge for Pakistani policymakers is going to be on the military front as India’s international image has suffered badly because of Modi’s August 5 blunder and for the first time in30 years, the situation in IOJK is not being blamed on Pakistan, rather the onus is on Indian actions alone. The Indian Establishment, including their military high command and the RSS gang might wish to divert attention away from their own follies and crimes in IOJK and shift the onus on Pakistan either via a “false flag” operation or even a tactical military move on the Line of Control. Such threats have been openly hurled by the Indian military brass. For example, General Bipin Rawat, the Indian Army Chief told the Indian media on September 30 that “if we have to go across (the LOC), we will through the air or the ground route or both. The red line has been very clearly drawn as to what will be the future course of action” and in the same interview, he repeated the canard about “Pakistani terror training camps in Balakot”.

History teaches us that military might cannot crush a people’s will to be free. Vietnam, Afghanistan, racist South Africa and America’s own experience of ‘shock and awe’ in the post 9/11 period are instructive examples of failures of brute force to subjugate a people determined to resist. On August 5, Modi used a tried, tested and failed formula, deploying 900,000 armed men to browbeat 8 million defenceless but resilient and defiant Kashmiris. He assumed, like the Americans did in Iraq in 2003, that it would be a ‘cakewalk’.

Like others of his ilk, that decision has boomeranged and Modi’s India is bound to get stuck and sink in the Kashmir quagmire. This action is a precursor of new challenges and opportunities for Pakistan to seize and to pursue a clear doable strategy that best preserves, protects and promotes the interests of Pakistan and the Kashmir cause that we as a Nation are committed to espouse. Above all, it is a test of our leadership and the mettle of our people. As the Quaid-e-Azam said: ”Let it not be said that we did not prove ourselves equal to the task”.

The post Pak View on India’s “Annexation” of Kashmir appeared first on IMR.

Farzana Shah is a Peshawar based journalist. This is an abridged extract of an article which was first published in the Pakistan Army Green Book 2020. The views expressed do not reflect the views of IMR

On August 5th, 2019 India unilaterally revoked Article 370 of its Constitution which promised autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, i.e., Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). This unlawful decision with its dire pending consequences has triggered an outrage, not only in the region but also at the global level. The entire state has been put under siege with total communication blackout, enforced by deploying thousands of fresh troops. Over 3000 political figures including former chief ministers of the state were arrested under so-called Public Safety Act (PSA).

India also divided the state into two; an act through which she changed the geography of the disputed land, hence practically ending the 1971 Simla Agreement. This agreement has remained a critical milestone for both Pakistan and India, as it was this agreement based upon which both countries established what the world later on recognized as Line of Control (LoC). Not only that, August 5th action also undermined the very foundation of Indian constitution, as Article 370 was obliterated without the essentially required consent of state government and that’s why this action was not a constitutional reform, but a blatant coup in total disregard to the pending UNSC resolutions /UN Charter.

Modi government with full backing from hardliner Hindu groups, abolished IOJK’s autonomous status under a fabricated security threat perception to conceal the real intent. Pak-US peace overtures in Afghanistan had made Delhi very nervous because of the simple fact that any settlement between the US and Taliban would have enabled Pakistan to move almost 200,000 of its troops or at least a large number of these to its eastern borders in Kashmir and elsewhere. Indian desperation to counter Pakistan and limit her growing role in Afghan peace process led to such an abrupt abrogation of special status of IOJK and this timing was no coincidence.

Media reports suggest the Indian intelligence agencies were desperately waiting for this opportunity to strike. Delhi had sensed that a possible deal managed by Pakistan for US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan could eventually renew US military assistance for Pakistan.

Reportedly, to scuttle Afghan peace deal and legitimize Indian stance over Kashmir, Indian spy agency RAW’s new chief Samant Goel called on Narendra Modi on July 5th, 2019 and apprised him of the plan to abolish the Article 370 for IOJK. Preparations for the move were already in place in Delhi as a number of high profile military and intelligence visits were made to IOJK including those by RAW’s chief Goel, Indian NSA Ajit Doval and Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat in the months preceding August 2019. On July 24, Doval also held a meeting with Indian military chiefs and heads of all three intelligence agencies including National Technical Research Organization (NTRO), in the same context.

Media also reported that India had flown Israeli Heron drones across the Pir Panjal range to rehearse controlling mob in case of protesteruption3; military aircrafts made a number of sorties flying relief supplies including food, water and medicines into the Valley for the Indian troops.

After Indian decision of obliteration of Article 370, LoC has become potential conflict with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang because of the simple fact that Delhi has changed the goalpost for future talks on Kashmir. According to Indian leadership, now talks will be on Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Post August 5th environment suggests that India with obliteration of Article 370 actually risked a high intensity insurgency in an already volatile state of IOJK; something India could not have done alone without external backing.

Pakistan’s Current National Security

Predicaments Developments in IOJK are neither random nor isolated as far as their impact on Pakistan’s national security is concerned. It is a dilemma imposed by our geography that Pakistan cannot stay isolated from regional developments. Even in some cases, extra regional developments also impact Pakistan’s security milieu; fast evolving situation in Middle East and ongoing trade war between US and China, are cases in point.

United Nations on April 21, 1948 adopted Kashmir resolution after India took the issue to the UN under article 35 of Chapter VI. Kashmir was declared disputed territory and call for a plebiscite was made as the said chapter outlines the means for a peaceful settlement of disputes. The shadowy annexation of IOJK by India and insistence upon

its fabricated history has resulted in 3 out of4 Indo-Pak wars. With current clampdown on basic human rights in IOJK, there is a clear and present danger of yet another round of conflict. LoC is already red hot; both countries are already exchanging artillery fire. Earlier, in February 2019,both sides deployed air power. India lost 2 fighter jets on 27/2 with one pilot becoming POW; who was immediately returned by Pakistan as a goodwill gesture.

India is desperate to get a role in the region, belittling what Pakistan has been doing for regional stability. This is critical for India to present Pakistan as a perpetrator of global terror, while fact is Pakistan has been the biggest victim of non-state actors’ actions within and without.

Two most important strategic goals of India are:

•             Bigger role, both in the region and world.

•             Solving Kashmir through UNSC resolutions, but after changing its demography to ensure a win. Solving Kashmir will pave the way for permanent UNSC seat; vital prerequisite for India to embark on Akhand Bahart agenda of RSS.

Indian threat has been intensified even more after August 5, 2019. Kashmir has dominated the security debate as it’s going to impact both internal and external security dynamics. How things will unfold in coming weeks and months, depends on how Pakistan formulates and executes its strategy on Kashmir.

Apart from the traditional foe in the east, the country has been fighting an endless war on the west, which despite clear gains, remains a perpetually bleeding front albeit with reduced fatalities.

Notwithstanding these obvious kinetic threats, Pakistan’s security landscape is inevitably affected by certain other factors as well, like peaceful rise of China and her ensuing trade war with the US, culmination of US’ longest war in history in Afghanistan and growing strategic competition around various parts of Asia including South China Sea, Indian Ocean, North Korea, and stand-off between US allies in Strait of Hurmuz against Iran. All these geopolitical development swill directly or indirectly impact Pakistan. Hence, it is likely to continue to be in the eye of global security storm due to its geography and may continue to suffer if not steered wisely.

Pakistan’s Significance to China

Chinese trillion-dollar Belt & Road Initiative(BRI) is pivotal for turning China into a world commercial empire. The region of Azad Jammu and Kashmir gains unprecedented importance in the wake of US-China emerging geopolitical competition worldwide. US wants to hit CPEC just like India for almost similar reasons; CPEC has in fact comprehensively demolished the US envisaged strategic encirclement of China in South China Sea, notwithstanding US quadrilateral alliance with Japan, Australia, and India. Idea was that CPEC brings global connectivity to China, so that Beijing can invest hundreds of billions of US dollars in its reserves to reignite the growth engine, which has slowed down during last 5-7 years (from10% annual to 6.5%). Beijing has plans to expand BRI to 70 countries and CPEC remains a critical part of this Chinese enterprise. Road to China’s strive for challenging American dominance passes through CPEC.

Apart from this economic dimension, the north eastern region of IOJK is attractive due to its close proximity to Russia, China and Pakistan. The Indian action in IOJK gives the US deep state an opportunity for furthering its own scheme of geopolitical maneuvering in Afghanistan, which is instrumental in containing Russia-China-Pakistanat the same time.

While US has remained stranded in Afghan quagmire, China’s BRI has been helping Beijing in positioning China to rise peacefully as a peace broker to the conflict zones like Afghanistan and Iraq in near future through trade compulsions. These very aspects substantiate the growing geostrategic prominence of Pakistan /Kashmir.

The changing geopolitics has forced Pakistan to adopt a more robust offensive maritime policy, apart from safeguarding its interests attached to land component of CPEC. Pakistan Navy has embarked on an ambitious project of acquiring eight submarines along with multiple advanced naval ships. All these may help restore some balance of power in South Asia /IOR.

China – India – Pakistan Paradigm

Recent, Sino-India skirmishes in Doklam went full circle in locking both the nuclear powers into a possible warlike situation. India has recently expressed her envisioned two front war strategy, which basically relies on the premise of preventing Chinese ingress across the LAC amid a high intensity short lived Indo-Pak conflict adopting Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). After initial denial, the top Indian military brass has not only publically acknowledged its presence, but has also hinted at considering unleashing CSD against Pakistan.

Indian aggressive attempts to outmaneuver Pakistan’s nuclear threshold forced it to adopt a full spectrum deterrence posture, while retaining/displaying the resolve to adopt policy of first use. Though it carries a great promise of strategic stability, but still there is a sizeable Indian defense intelligentsia that conceives this as a weakness in conventional balance of power, hence sees an opportunity of a limited, high-intensity conflict aimed at shallow gains across LoC/IB. This community of India is of the view that such gains will serve a devastating blow to Pakistan’s national morale. Indian strategy is to choke Pakistan economically, while raising cost of its deterrence by triggering an arms race.

Adding current volatile situation in IOJK into above discussed strategic contest between conventional Indo-Pak militaries and growing US-China wrestling for dominance, it would be safe to assume that the probability of an armed conflict in this region was never this high in last 72 years, as it is now.

Critical Appraisal of Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Let us begin with the most critical question, i.e., if all these preparations as highlighted in earlier part of this discourse were underway in India, why Pakistan remained oblivious to these developments about IOJK or was it caught totally unaware /surprised like rest of the World? A critical and candid appraisal is needed.

It would be safe to assume that Pakistan missed the opportunity to preempt and did very little or nothing before August 5th on diplomatic and media fronts to expose and pressurize India. Whatever and wherever it reacted, it did once unilateral annexation of IOJK by Modi had already occurred.

In the wake of Indian move over IOJK, Pakistan repeatedly reiterated its intention to undertake preventive measures to counter threats hurled by India. Such a move had always been seen by the US and her allies as jeopardizing War on Terror, a metrics which puts Pakistan at a crucial position with regard to peace in the region. The equation exhibits importance of Kashmir conflict and consequences of Indian attempt of redrawing map of erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir for the world peace and stability.

On international fora, India always presented Kashmir as a bilateral issue, supposed to be solved under Simla Agreement at bilateral level without any third party intervention. While on the bilateral level, Indian policy on Kashmir is immoveable as it always maintains that Kashmir is an integral part of Union, hence no bilateral dialogue is possible. On the contrary, India showed willingness to discuss Azad Jammu Kashmir and Northern Areas(parts of heretofore Kashmir state) of Pakistan for which nation gave blood in 1947-48 to liberate from the clutches of Dogra Raj; putting added pressure on our diplomacy.

Despite the fact that since 9/11 Pakistan’s security challenges have grown manifold, it has made abundantly clear that Pakistan cannot and will not remain oblivious from what goes on inside the Kashmir valley; any undertakings however, demand a comprehensive understanding of the total security paradigm. Pakistan will have to work pro actively and diplomatically support the indigenous KFM, else the state will be dragged into yet another regional conflict with India, giving her the advantage to choose time and place of her liking.

Notwithstanding initial surprise, post August 5th Pakistan’s political leadership has repeatedly and quite forcefully warned the World at large about the potential threat to global peace emerging from regional conflict in Kashmir in near future; it’s a nuclear flashpoint that has the latent potential to engulf the entire world.

Geo-Strategic Implications

Strategically speaking, the clash of interests among big powers alone makes Kashmir a bone of contention; contested directly by three nuclear powers (intrinsically linked are the strategic interests of two extra regional nuclear powers i.e. US, Russia).

Gilgit-Baltistan region has for centuries been the most vital part of Jammu and Kashmir. It is now a key part of CPEC, the cornerstone of China-Pakistan axis and the flagship project of China’s BRI for global trade domination; it aims at connecting South Asia with Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East /Africa; the shortest route from Arabian Sea ports of Karachi and Gwadar.

The growing competition in different fields(fanning economies and military insecurities) is forcing China and India to gain access to energy rich CARs. International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was envisioned by India as alternative to CPEC. This corridor connects CAR to Iran and to India through Arabian Sea. Obviously, the route is not only much costlier due to its length, but also tremendously insecure as it goes through Iran and Persian Gulf, regions far from stable for long term investments and economic activities. The only alternative short and direct route for India passes through Azad Kashmir and Pakistan’s northern areas. Sooner or later, India will make a move to extend its jurisdiction over this area; current overture in IOJK may have this latent desire imbedded in it.

Apart from economic and strategic dimensions, Kashmir issue has become a cultural and social question as well.

Modi is planning to change the religious demography of IOJK, through ethnic cleansing and Hindu settlements in disputed territory on the lines of Jewish settlements by Israel. This drive itself is being fueled by right-wing Hindutva gangs, who have taken over India and have completely distorted her secular face. Hindutva ideology, much like Hitler’s Nazism, believes in supremacy of their own faith and considers all minorities in India as impure and hence, must be culled from Indian soil.

Modi appealed to the Indian society to”embrace Kashmiris” on Independence Day. It was sensible from both the domestic and international perspectives. But the news coming out of IOJK and even from mainland India, indicates that Hindutva’s control over Indian society has put Indian minorities in grave danger. Lynching of Muslims and Kashmiri students even within Indian cities has become new normal. This explains why Modi was compelled to ensure a complete media clampdown in the IOJK. Apart from that, Modi is now faced with severe internal pressure to act against Pakistan on AJK.

Apropos, it is beyond any doubt that the current fascist regime in India has nefarious designs against Pakistan /Muslims. Ruling RSS/ VHP/BJP has built anti-Muslim/anti-Pakistan sentiment so hard in Indian mainstream media and public discourse that BJP will have to continue undertaking some sort of anti-Pak overtures every now and then, to stay in power; hence current misadventure should not be taken as last.

Possible Emerging Scenarios and their Impact on Pakistan’s National Security

It is evident from the analysis so far that an Indo-US-Israel nexus is at play against Pakistan at multiple levels to close the Kashmir chapter once and for all. Hence, it is now prudent to examine the possible outcomes of Indian political discourse vis-à-vis Pakistan (Table Opposite).

A critical appraisal of the above scenarios suggests that Pakistan will have to walk a very thin line to fight for the Kashmir cause. Biggest challenge is that Pakistan will have to take the initiative and yet not to be seen as an aggressor as per international law. Having tested Pakistan’s response in February 2019, India may not escalate the situation along LoC any further than routine ceasefire violations, without consolidating control over IOJK. India’s best bet in current scenario is to maintain status-quo with a complete information and media control on developments inside IOJK particularly in the valley. This is where Pakistan will have to respond along with aggressive, non-apologetic and bold diplomacy. Proactive Foreign Office (FO) will produce results. If Pakistan keeps waiting for Indian action to react; Islamabad will be playing a losing game from the very onset.

Policy Recommendations

So far, Pakistan has given a standard response to Indian action of August 5th. Prevailing security crisis however, demands a robust and out of box solution, and that too in quick time. International community at best, will not go beyond condemning India over human rights violations in IOJK. In order to do that Pakistan will have to take the war into non-kinetic domains:

•   Information / Cyber Warfare

•   Electronic Warfare (EW) Spectrum

Relevant establishments must provide support to diplomatic efforts being done by government through operations in these two domains with focused goal of extracting authentic information from stakeholders in IOJK most importantly from general public facing the brutalities of Indian oppressive forces. Once information gathered, FO must disseminate it with proper narrative of the state of Pakistan.

A single video clip or picture can change the perception of India, which it has built so painstakingly over the years. Pakistan needs to keep world attention on IOJK and in order to do that communication links inside the valley must be established. Indian decision of communication blackout in IOJK was not random, but part of the planning. Pakistan’s response in these two domains will be purely non-kinetic, denying any involvement of arms. If executed properly anda local uprising occurs inside IOJK, it will make it extremely difficult for India to keep selling the terrorism card on IOJK. Burhan Wani was a local hero, India could not blame his action on Pakistan. Only a native uprising will be just and politically defendable for Pakistan on international forums. Even such an uprising will need support in the information domain.

EW Spectrum would be critical as it will enable Pakistan to keep Indian preparation in check. There is a possibility that India creates a deception in IOJK and opens war across IB on a spot like Pakistan’s soft-belly (Rahim Yar Khan – Kashmore) to sever Karachi from rest of Pakistan. There are rumors suggesting similar planning going on in Indian military headquarters; Pakistan must take requisite safeguards.

Pakistan must also keep refining standard diplomatic response along with taking into consideration above mentioned suggestions. Few areas where improvement can be made are mentioned below:

•             Pakistan, according to UN charter, can openly help Kashmiris in their fight. Indian intervention in East Pakistan and recent Syrian conflict between Russia and the US are clear examples.

•             India may try to capture areas 5 to 7 km inside AJK to make claim on the area. Pakistan army must have own similar plans and be executed preemptively.

•             Question of Kashmir must be debated among legislators on regular basis so that policy can be kept proactive rather than calling session of parliament on special occasions. Kashmir’s importance as vital strategic national interest must be seen by whole nation. Kashmir demands and deserves more pragmatism than emotional outburst.

•             Pakistan’s foreign policy needs more consistency, more inclusiveness of security institutions and constant review of emerging developments around the world particularly in South Asia.

•             Kinetic intervention from Pakistan has proven counter-productive as far as larger goals of Kashmir’s freedom is concerned. It created problems locally as well. State must adopt transparent policy in this regard. Proscribed organizations must remain ineffective and immobile.

•             Pakistan must establish a dedicated and permanent desk at FO focused on human rights violation in India against minorities. These efforts must be driven not by shallow patriotism, but true humanitarian grounds. In this regard, contacts must be established with oppressed groups within Indian society. This desk must be tasked to constantly arranging seminars and programs for this single purpose. Kashmir Committee must work along with this desk.

•             Especial efforts must be put on proactive diplomacy on Kashmir in P-5 nations. Pakistan embassies must conduct seminars, conferences and round tables with local intellectuals about Indian oppression in the valley.

Conclusion

Indian government has gravely endangered the global peace by unilaterally changing the status of disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. Due to RSS/BJP actions in IOJK, future of 8 million Kashmiri Muslims is at stake with a probability of their systematic genocide or forced exodus from their native land. The subsequent strategic situation demanded an appraisal to assess the way forward for the state. This paper is an attempt in the same direction. It argued and examined various vertices of Kashmir’s geography, its linkage with national security and impacts of various policy options. Pakistan will have to act proactively. Standard diplomatic response will not be enough and a delay in decisive line of action will be suicidal.

Pakistan must ensure regional peace by adopting an aggressive and just policy on Kashmir, while also ensuring that state must not be seen as aggressor till the time an armed conflict with India becomes inevitable. Information and EW Spectrum domains must be explored for non-kinetic operations against Indian political and military leadership so that Pakistan can expose Indian atrocities and can achieve higher moral ground before any open conflict.

The post Pak View of Emerging Geopolitical Scenario Post Article 370 Abrogation appeared first on IMR.

Handwara Operation

In the Army’s best traditions, Colonel Ashutosh Sharma, a decorated commanding officer of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion, along with company commander Maj Anuj Sood, two other soldiers and a policeman laid down their lives in a fierce encounter with terrorists at Chanjimulla area of Handwara in north Kashmir’s Kupwara district on 2 May.

Two terrorists were killed in the encounter, one of whom was identified as top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander Haidar alias Iqbal, a resident of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. They were part of a large group of Pakistani infiltrators who had sneaked into Kashmir through the Wadarbala-Rajwara forests in Kupwara in April. Col Sharma and his team reached the site after receiving reports that civilians were being held hostage in a house by terrorists. The Army officers were leading a team to rescue civilians who had been taken hostage by the terrorists.

Kishtwar Encounter

In a gunfight in Kishtwar district, on 17 April, two militants were slain. They had killed a Special Police Officer and injured another near Dacchan a week earlier, before decamping with their weapons. The weapons were recovered after the encounter near Sounder village.

In another encounter at Dairoo village in South Kashmir’s Shopian the same day two militans killed. 

Keran Gunfight

The Army suffered its biggest casualties in a day since the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammau & Kashmir (J&K), on 5 April. It was foiling an infiltration bid at a high-altitude pass on the Line of Control (LoC) at Shalbatoo, in the Jumgund area of the Keran sector in Kupwara in north Kashmir, in tough terrain and bad weather.

Five members of the elite para unit – 4 Para – and five militants were killed in the fierce hand-to-hand combat and gunfight in the snowbound Ringdori forest area of Keran, 120 km from Srinagar. The unit took part in the 2016 cross-LoC surgical strikes in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The special forces troopers, who had been air dropped near the LoC after information on the infiltrators was received, were found just six feet away from the terrorists, who they eliminated in an intense battle when the search party found them . They had infiltrated across the LoC from Qasim-II post in PoK and were headed to the Gulab Post on the Indian side.

At least three of the five terrorists gunned down on April 5 in the Keran sector belonged to Jammu & Kashmir and had gone across the border to Pakistan for training in 2018. Five AK-47 rifles, grenades, and GPS and wireless sets were recovered from the encounter site.

Kulgam Gunfight

A day earlier, on 4 April, four terrorists of Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) responsible for killing several civilians were shot dead by security forces in a shootout in Kulgam district of Jammu & Kashmir. Two soldiers of the Indian Army were also injured in the encounter, which took place in Hardmand Guri village of Kulgam. The house in which the terrorists were held up was demolished.

Army’s Response

The army responded to the unprovoked ceasefire violation and the killing of Special Forces commandos, on 10 April, by targeting Pakistani positions across the LoC in the Keran sector with artillery guns and caused severe damage to posts, terror launch pads and an ammunition dump in PoK.

A 48-second video clip released showed heavy and precision artillery blasting some positions, including an ammunition dump that was seen exploding in a huge ball of fire. It was a message to Pakistan that nothing goes unpunished.

The assault on terror launch pads at Dudhnial facing the Keran sector killed eight terrorists and 15 Pakistan Army soldiers. There was an effort to camouflage the extent of the casualties on the Pakistani side.

It was from Dudhnial that the five terrorists neutralised by the Indian Army special forces in the Keran sector on April 5 had been launched.

The Indian Army had no option since credible information suggested that nearly 160 terrorists of mixed tanzeems – LeT, Jaish e Mohammed and HuM – were waiting in the area to infiltrate into Kashmir.

At least one terror launch pad, among other targets, was apparently “completely destroyed” in the firing by the Indian Army, which used 105mm field guns as well as 155mm Bofors howitzers.

Defence minister Rajnath Singh, on 19 April, said the Indian Army was carrying out “targeted strikes” on terror launch pads along the LoC in Jammu & Kashmir and eliminating the Pakistani infiltrators before they crossed over to the Indian side.

“As you would have gathered from the operations along the LoC in the last two weeks, we are dominating the enemy through targeted intelligence based strikes on their launch pads and eliminating them before they set foot on Indian soil,” Singh said.

Comments

Dispite the coronavirus (Covid-19) panedemic spreading in Pakistan, there has been a spike in incidents across the LoC suggested that the operations to foment trouble in Kashmir – by first radicalising locals in Valley; then getting them to cross over for weapons training with terror groups such as the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed and HM; and then sending them back to wage war in India. There were attempts to smuggle assault rifles across LoC to supply to foreign and local terrorists in the Valley. Other moves which include propping up smaller indigenous armed groups, were linked with retaliation against India for the August 2019 nullification of Article 370.

Pakistan often resorts to ceasefire violations to push militants into the Indian side. Indian troops have also been retaliating to Pakistani actions under its policy of hot pursuit.

The post Indian Army’s Response to Pak Terror Attacks in 2020 appeared first on IMR.

With Naikoo, who carried a reward of Rs 12 lakh on his head, two other terrorists were killed in a separate encounter in Sharshali Khrew area of Awantipora on 5 May.

Six months of persistent surveillance and the arrest of a mason, who reportedly built HuM commander Riyaz Naikoo’s hideout, led the forces to the big catch. A cordon and search operation had been carried out after the security forces were tipped off about the presence of militants in Beighpora area.

Mobile internet services were suspended in Kashmir as a precautionary measure. Soon after the incident, stone pelting broke out in the area following which cellular services were also shut.

Naikoo had taken over the HuM leadership in the Valley from Mohammad Yasin Itoo, alias Mehmood Ghaznawi, after he was killed in August 2017 in a gunfight in Shopian’s Awneera. Before Ghaznawi, Burhan Wani, the poster boy of militancy in the Valley, was killed in July 2016.

Naikoo’s killing is a significant blow to pro-Pakistan group HuM. It also marked an end of an era in which a generation of militants, like Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa, evoked folklore popularity and gained an unprecedented support and sympathy. It also proved that the shelf life of terrorists in J&K was few months. None of the surviving commanders and cadres has been able to step forward.

The reversals began in autumn of 2018 when dozens of district-level commanders were killed in precise anti-insurgency operations that dramatically dented the capabilities of the militant groups.

Nearly 800 militants – most of them locals, ill-trained and ill-equipped – have been killed in last four years and during the first half of 2020.

Saifullah Mir, aka Qasim Haider, a resident of Malangpora in Pulwama and part of the Burhan Wani group of 12 terrorists, listed as a A++ category terrorist, is reported to have succeed Riyaz Naikoo to fill the void in the group. A medical assistant in the past, he has treated terrorists wounded in encounters with the security forces.

Saifullah began as a guide for terrorists in Pulwama, Tral, Kakapora and Kulgam areas. He has been active in Srinagar city as well.

On the killing of Naikoo, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Bipin Rawat remarked, “The priority of the Armed Forces is to always get after the terrorist leadership and neutralize them as fast as possible. If you succeed in doing so, recruitment levels go down. They are not able to spread violence among the people because it is the leadership that spreads all the violence amongst the people and coerces the local population-young boys and girls through misinformation and they try to encourage them to join more often than not through fear and coercion. So if we are able to eliminate leadership, we are quite hopeful that you will find that recruitment will come down and there will be lesser violence in the Valley. It has always been the effort of the Armed Forces and they will continue doing so.”

“Creating a more than life-size image of a terrorist leader is somehow propagating them into this Rambo kind of image. I think the more we stay away from them and highlight their negativity more, we will not create this Rambo image of these people. They are people just spreading terrorism, mayhem, and not allowing normalcy to return in the state. They are not heroes in the eyes of the local population. People are being coerced to treat them as heroes because of social media,” the CDS opined on attempts to build a larger than life image of Riyaz Naikoo.

The Resistance Front Launched

The Resistance Front (TRF),  a new terror group has been rushed by Pakistan to take responsibility for major terror attacks and firefights in Jammu & Kashmir. It is controlled by three top handlers of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan – Sajad Jatt for South Kashmir, Khalid for Central Kashmir and Hanzala Adnan for North Kashmir.

The TRF was launched in late 2019 after Parliament scrapped Jammu & Kashmir’s special status and divided the state into two centrally-administered union territories, Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.

The exercise is designed to give terror in Kashmir an indigenous face to ward off international pressure, particularly from the anti-terror financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF), over Pakistan sponsoring Islamist terror groups and what New Delhi describes as its jihadi terror factories.

This objective reflected the choice of names for the Inter Services Intelligence’s (ISI) recent terror initiatives such as TRF or the low-key JK Pir Panjal Peace Forum. These names do not have a religious label but suggest that they are homebred.

It is a facade to help the terror group gain space in the public mind and to attract local recruits. LeT’s old guard was focussing on getting TRF new recruits from the Kashmir Valley.

TRF’s social media managers in Pakistan claimed responsibility after five terrorists and an equal number of army soldiers were killed in the Keran sector in early April. The group also claimed responsibility for the gunfight in north Kashmir’s Handwara town that killed five security men, including the commanding officer of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion and a Major on 3 May. 

TRF is expected to carry out grenade attacks, mostly using its overground workers or fresh recruits rather than risking its trained hands. The group, however, lost dozens of grenades when the police caught some of its overground workers ferrying arms and ammunition in March.

Comments

The elimination of Riyaz Naikoo was a result of developing actionable human intelligence and operational synergy among forces fronting the counter-terror operations.

The Special Operations Group of the Jammu & Kashmir Police had been working on people in the Kupwara district who had access to Riyaz Naikoo. One of them was a man who had played a role in building the secret bunker in his native village in south Kashmir’s Pulwama. The intelligence was pinpointed.

Riyaz Naikoo’s elimination, a serious setback to terror group HuM in south Kashmir, is considered one of the most successful security operations in recent months in Jammu & Kashmir.

Even Syed Salahuddin, the Hizbul founder, who also leads the Pakistan’s ISI-backed alliance of terror groups – United Jihad Council – said the “the enemy (India) has the edge”. A day after Naikoo’s killing, he could be heard saying, “It’s a shock for all of us (killing of Riyaz Naikoo) but these ‘shahadats’ (sacrifices) are going on in Kashmir since long. Since January this year 80 Mujahideens (terrorists) have given their ‘Shahadat’ (eliminated by the security forces) and all of them were highly educated and trained.”

The security forces have now concentrated on spotting every terrorist infiltrating from Pakistan, analysing infiltration routes to spot gaps in counter-infiltration grid along the LoC, focusing on human intelligence, and stepping up offensive against foreign terrorists in Kashmir Valley.

Pakistan, by all accounts, is determined to bear down on India. This is the first summer after India scrapped Jammu & Kashmir’s special status in August 2019 and Islamabad has been prepping ever since.

It was clear that the Deep State was clearly in-charge of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy. And Imran Khan, quite like India had anticipated right in the beginning, was letting the army run the show.

Imran Khan’s tweets on Kashmir had attributed violence in Kashmir to an “indigenous resistance movement” and accused India of finding a pretext to launch a “false flag operation.” This remark has been interpreted in New Delhi to imply that the TRF model of funding terror and denying a role in terrorism in Kashmir was the template.

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Riyaz Naikoo’s Bad Deeds

Riyaz was involved in:

•             Killing of Haji Ghulam Mohammad Dar, father of a sarpanch, at Dogripora on March 8, 2014

•             Firing on a police bus near Bhatpora Tokena

•             Killing of Gh Mohi-Ud-din Dar

•             Killing of Javaid Akbar Khanday, resident of Khandaypora

•             Killing of police Head Constable Ashiq Hussain Mir at the Padgampoara crossing

•             Kidnapping of Constable Naseer Ahmad

•             Looting of nine weapons from the residence of former MLA Wachi

•             Killing of six migrant labourers in Kulgam

•             Killing of truck drivers and fruit traders post August 5, 2019

•             Release of an audio tape threatening attacks on the jail staff after preferential treatment being provided to militants and separatists lodged in various jails was discontinued.

The post Elimination of HuM J&K Head Significant Blow to Pakistan appeared first on IMR.

The volatile 778-km long Line of Control (LoC), recorded over 1,547 times until 3 May from January – nearly half of the entire year’s figure in 2019 at 3,168.

The highest number of violations (411) were recorded in March 2020 when Covid-19 cases started peaking globally.

There were 3,479 CFVs and firings across the LoC and the 198-km international border (IB) in J&K in 2019, smashing all annual records since 2003.

The upward trend in CFVs has continued since the government revoked the special status of J&K on 5 August 2019 and then split the state into two union territories. Though there was a general decline in terrorist violence in the hinterland, with the snow in the mountain passes melting, there has also been a spike in infiltration attempts.

In April 2020, as many as 28 terrorists were killed in J&K – the highest since August 2019. 64 terrorists were killed in Kashmir and along the LoC in 2020 so far. In 2019, 152 terrorists were killed in J&K as against 215 in 2018, official figures stated.

Islamabad also blamed the Indian Army of 708 ceasefire violations in 2020, that it said killed two civilians and injured another 42.

Recruitment Up

The bigger cause of worry was that at least 35 local youths had joined terror groups in the first four months of this year, according to official figures of the armed forces. The local recruitment in 2019 was 119 – much less than 219 in 2018.

The Indian security forces have gone on the offensive, keeping the approaching summer in mind when infiltration attempts increase along the LoC and terrorists in the Valley become very active.

Casualties

Since 21 March, at least 33 militants and two of their associates have been killed in 15 gunfights across the Valley. Most of these encounters took place in four districts of south Kashmir – Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag, which are considered the hotbed of militancy.

Twenty security personnel lost their lives in this period. Eighteen were killed in gunfights and in attacks by militants, and two army men died on the LoC in CFVs by Pakistan.

Terror Factories in Pakistan

Terror factories in Pakistan are continuing training modules and launch pads along the border from where the final push is made to cross over are also active. The encounter in the Keran sector, on 5 April, in which five special forces soldiers died while taking down a group of infiltrating terrorists-also showed a clear Pakistan hand, with recoveries of food packets and other supplies that had evident markings.

Army chief, Gen MM Naravane also accused Pakistan, on 17 April, of backing terrorism in the region at a time when the world was united to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. “While the whole world is focused towards fighting Covid-19, Pakistan-instigated terrorists have been targeting innocent civilians in the hinterland; just three days back they targeted a retired Kashmiri soldier. Therefore, we cannot let our guard down,” Naravane said.

Intelligence Assessment

Intelligence agencies had earlier pointed to terror launch pads that had been activated in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s (POK) Dudhnial, Sharda and Athmuqam across the Keran sector on this side of the Line of Control.

The encounters which happened during March to April point towards Pakistan-backed terrorist groups focusing on north Kashmir. It was a renewed attempt by Pakistan to give Kashmir terrorism a local face. According to an assessment presented to national security planners in late April, the ISI had messaged the 100-odd foreign terrorists to lie low and let the local terrorists front the battle with security forces.

The assessment was that foreign terrorists would be consolidating logistics, expanding the overground workers facilitation network and concentrating on recruitment of Kashmiri youth. Foreign terrorists had also stepped up efforts to radicalise the youth in the Doda-Kishtwar-Ramban range to prepare them for recruitment.

The intelligence brief had also predicted a spike in terror activities and attacks from April, after the starting of Ramzan.

NSA’s Review

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval carried out a complete operational review of the security situation in Jammu & Kashmir on 9 May. The review meeting was attended by Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane, Intelligence Bureau director Arvinda Kumar, Research and Analysis Wing chief Samant Kumar Goel, Border Security Force director general SS Deswal, Central Reserve Police Force chief AK Maheshwari. Northern Army Commander Lt Gen YK Joshi, and general officer commanding of the army’s Srinagar-headquartered 15 corps Lt Gen BS Raju and the Nagrota-based 16 corps commander Lt Gen Harsha Gupta and Jammu and Kashmir police chief Dilbag Singh had also attended the high-level review at New Delhi.

The meeting noted Pakistan government’s renewed push from terror launch pads, the rise in infiltration and how Pakistan was funding newly-created outfits such as The Resistance Front or the J&K Pir Panjal Peace Forum to claim that terrorism in the Kashmir valley was indigenous and not sponsored by Pakistan.

Placing the Pakistan Air Force on high alert was assessed as an effort to further Imran Khan’s narrative that asks the international community to intervene lest there is a confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Comments

The security grid has increased surveillance in the four districts of south Kashmir, while also keeping a close watch on the LoC. The months of April and May saw a pattern of encounters going up every year, when the snow starts melting on the upper reaches of the Himalayas and militants start infiltrating from POK into Kashmir.

With modern surveillance gadgets, security forces are registering big successes in tracking and zeroing in on militants. Once a militant is caught on radar, he is tracked through electronic surveillance, and the success is remarkable. Also, human intelligence inputs help the forces to coordinate operations in the better way. Intelligence gathering has also seen a marked improvement.

A section of security officials and experts believes CFVs by Pakistan are a desperate attempt to foment unrest in India.

In the security grid, many consider these CFVs an attempt to give a cover fire to help militants crossing over to India.

Pakistan’s strategy of pushing terrorists across the border continues unabated. It’s likely that Pakistan is actually trying to take advantage of the Covid-19 outbreak and hit India with terror strikes when the latter is trying to control the epidemic. Plus, the nullification of special status of J&K by New Delhi last year did not lead to the kind of unrest that Islamabad had expected.

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