Lt Gen. Chauhan, 61, will be India’s second CDS. His predecessor, Gen. Bipin Rawat, died in a helicopter crash in December last year. This is the first time in the history of the Indian military that a retired three-star officer has returned to active service in a four-star position.

In the 10 months following Gen. Rawat’s death, there had been widespread speculation that the next CDS would be appointed from within the Indian Army, not only because it is the biggest and most influential of the three services but also because Gen. Rawat’s untimely death had left the army’s CDS term unfinished.

In June, when the government made changes in the rules for appointment of the CDS, military circles were abuzz with Lt Gen. Chauhan’s name as a possible contender for the coveted post. Lt Gen. Chauhan belonged to the 11 Gorkha Rifles regiment, the same as Gen. Rawat. He is a native of Uttarakhand, like Gen. Rawat was. After his retirement from the army in May 2021, Lt Gen. Chauhan had been working closely with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval as a military advisor in the National Security Council Secretariat.

Seen as an expert on China, Lt. Gen. Chauhan previously served as director general of military operations (DGMO) before being appointed as the eastern army commander in September 2019. In his 40-year-long service in the army, he commanded an infantry division in the critical Baramulla sector in the Northern Command and later a corps in the Northeast.

Besides being a hardcore military man, Lt Gen. Chauhan has been a regular contributor to military think-tanks and has authored the book Aftermath of a Nuclear Attack.

As CDS, one of Lt Gen. Chauhan‘s biggest tasks will be to complete the theaterisation of the defence forces, which will see the creation of theatre commands. Gen. Rawat, who had started the process, was of the view that there was a marked lack of synergy between the three military wings since they operated in isolation. In the past few months, several studies on theatre commands have been underway at the Department of Military Affairs, along with a study on manpower optimisation.

The main agenda for the CDS will be to build a lean and integrated warfighting machinery within the budgetary constraints. The issue of theatre commands has been mired in controversy within the services, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) objecting to the move. Air chief marshal Vivek Ram Chaudhari recently said a separate air defence command would be “counterproductive”.

Gen. Rawat had been working hard to iron out the inter-service differences—a task his successor will have to continue. Like in the US and China, Gen. Rawat planned to have five commands—northern, western, peninsular, air defence and maritime.

The Indian military currently functions under 17 single-service commands. It has eight commands to manage the China front as against a single theatre command of the Chinese military responsible for borders with India. The proposal to set up unified commands came after the 1999 Kargil War, but the concept remained in limbo partly over fears that it would trigger an ugly turf war between the three services. If IAF chief Chaudhari’s remarks are any indicator, the issue of theaterisation still remains hotly debated and polarising within India’s defence establishment.

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Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi on 25 March 2022, the first by a top Chinese official after the 2020 clashes. Neither Beijing nor New Delhi made an official announcement about Wang’s visit.

That Wang chose to visit was a surprise, that India agreed to the visit was a bigger one. The visit was considered a diplomatic breakthrough given the slump in bilateral ties since the standoff in Ladakh started in 2020.

Speaking after the visit, Jaishankar no time line was agreed upon for disengagement and de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). A parallel but a separate discussion took place in regard to sorting out the situation in border areas.  He said 15 rounds of talks were held between the Corps Commanders of the two Armies since April 2020 leading to some progress at several friction points.

Wang at OIC

Wang’s visit to New Delhi came just a day after his comments on Jammu and Kashmir at an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, managed to irk New Delhi.

At the OIC meeting before leaving for New Delhi, Wang said: “On Kashmir, we have heard again today the calls of many of our Islamic friends. And China shares the same hope.”

This drew a sharp reaction from the Ministry of External Affairs. The MEA spokesperson said: “We reject the uncalled reference to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his speech at the Opening Ceremony (of the OIC meeting).”

 “Matters related to the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir are entirely the internal affairs of India. Other countries, including China, have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India refrains from public judgement of their internal issues,” he said.

Delegation-level Talks

National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval told Wang Yi that there was a need to push for early and complete disengagement at the LAC for bilateral ties to return to their natural course.

During delegation-level talks at the South Block in the national capital, India made it clear that continuation of the present situation was not in mutual interest.

The Chinese side invited NSA Doval to visit China to take forward the mandate of Special Representatives on border issues. Doval responded positively to the invitation and said that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully.

Disengagement Proposal Rejected

The Indian Express reported that around the time of Wang’s visit, China had sent a proposal for disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point 15 in the Hot Springs area of eastern Ladakh.

“Government sources said China proposed that Indian troops, who have been in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Chinese troops at PP 15 for almost two years now, move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region,” the newspaper reported.

The proposal was rejected since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres even behind PP 16 which has never been claimed by China earlier.

State of India-China relations

Thousands of Indian troops remain deployed along India’s remote border with China in the Himalayan snow deserts of Ladakh, where hand-to-hand fighting broke out in June 2020.

At least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed during a clash in Ladakh’s Galwan valley – the first deadly encounter between the nuclear-armed neighbours in decades.

Their undemarcated 3,500-km-long frontier has remained largely peaceful since a border war in 1962, and both countries still claim vast swathes of each other’s territory.

After the Galwan clash, senior officers from both militaries held more than a dozen rounds of talks to de-escalate the standoff in Ladakh but progress has been limited.

Last February, after multiple military parleys, Indian and Chinese troops completed a pullout from a lake area in Ladakh. Days later, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar agreed to setup a hotline.

There has been little progress for disengagement from the Depsang Plains in north Ladakh. The Chinese have denied Indian troops access to their traditional patrolling points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 but the Chinese have moved machinery for roadbuilding behind these patrolling points.

A total of 15 rounds of talks has been held at the level of corp commanders between the two armies on disengagement from various parts of Ladakh. But progress has been slow.

Beijing has repeatedly said that border standoff does not represent the entirety of China-India relations, while New Delhi has maintained that peace along the frontier is essential for the two countries to work together.

New Delhi has numerous other concerns regarding China’s activities in almost all of India’s neighbours.

Aside from the tensions in the Himalayas, India’s mistrust stems from Beijing’s support of old foe Pakistan, the competition for influence in Nepal, and concern over China’s economic clout in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

Chinese Strategy

Unsettling signal from China show that it intends to continue the ‘string of pearls’ strategy to encircle India in South Asia.

By engaging with Afghanistan’s ruthless regime for rare earth and minerals, China is trying to use a vacuum where India has almost no leverage. Sri Lanka and Nepal’s infrastructure investments aim to cut India’s regional standing. Deep seaports in Myanmar extend that envelope. This is a strategy of boxing India in and flies in the face of Wang Yi’s assertion during his meetings in Delhi that China does not seek a unipolar Asia.

Defence Spending

The standoff in the high Himalayas is a costly undertaking. India is not walking the talk with its defence spending. China increased its defence budget by 7.1 per cent to $230 billion in 2022. It is three times that of India’s $70 billion in 2022.

Without spending at the very least three per cent of her GDP on defence, India will find it increasingly difficult to match China’s assertiveness on the borders.

Economic Lever

In the two years of the standoff, India’s trade deficit is a staggering $103 billion in China’s favour. The quality of this trade deficit is also startling. India exports primarily iron ore, aluminium, and agricultural commodities while importing finished products across consumer and industrial categories, like electronics, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, and infrastructure items from Beijing.

The trade lever is firmly in China’s hands. Apart from banning a few apps, Narendra Modi’s government has been unable to bring structural reforms over two years to dent this relationship.

Investment and App Bans

China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expanding exponentially since the turn of the century to $95.02 billion in 2021/22. Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises, operate in India, including electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market.

Since 2020, however, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players in Asia’s third largest economy by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

The Indian government had previously held up investments worth billions from Beijing, but last week said that approvals for 66 proposals from neighbouring countries – including China – totalling $1.79 billion had been approved.

In February, India also blocked access to dozens of Chinese apps over security concerns, increasing the tally of such restricted mobile apps to more than 300.

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The India-China relationship has been at its lowest point in three decades since Beijing tore up a decade’s worth of agreements for maintaining peace and tranquility at the border and sent troops into India’s side of the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh in 2020.

If the Chinese intention was to gauge if India was ready to normalise ties, then the visit was structured inauspiciously. Wang, who is also a state councillor, arrived via Islamabad and Kabul. In Pakistan, he aired pro-Pakistan views on Kashmir at the foreign ministers’ conference of Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). In Afghanistan, he engaged the globally-slighted Taliban regime as it regresses to its old behaviour. A cold reception in New Delhi was thus expected. South Block judged correctly that the China’s obduracy required a riposte as the China’s need for de-escalation was now greater than India’s.

In 2017, China had similarly shown flexibility to resolve the Doklam stand-off after the BRICS meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Hamburg. Subsequently, not only China has dug deeper at positions near Doklam but showed no hesitation in widening the confrontation three years later in Ladakh.

The onus of normalisation of ties lies with Beijing. The presence of a large number of troops, in contravention of agreements, denotes an abnormality and is a clear signal that border disengagement and de-escalation remain non-negotiable for any restoration of ties.

No breakthrough or major announcement came out of Beijing’s outreach. The conversation in the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times veered around the need for New Delhi to change its attitude and play down the border clashes for a positive thrust, given the two neighbours’ relations with Russia, a line taken by Wang Yi himself. Both Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval, though, responded to the call for taking a ‘long-term view’ by sticking to the stance that the overall development of ties was intrinsically linked to resolution of the border issues.

The new escalatory cycle now can be broken. India’s neutrality over Ukraine addresses Chinese worry about Indian proximity to the United States, after the Quad meetings were raised to the summit level. But China’s tactical moves must not be mistaken for a strategic shift. India will continue to be seen as a potential rival.

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In his nearly three-hour “candid” talks with visiting Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, external affairs minister S Jaishankar asserted that restoration of normalcy in ties will require restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

Wang flew into Delhi from Kabul on 24 March evening in an unannounced trip in the first highest-level visit to India by a Chinese leader after the border standoff in eastern Ladakh erupted nearly two years ago.

At a media briefing shortly after his talks with Wang, Jaishankar said: “If we are both committed to improving our ties then this commitment must find full expression in the ongoing disengagement talks.”

Describing the current situation as a “work in progress”, he also said that relations between India and China have been “disturbed” as a result of the Chinese actions in April 2020.

“So long there are very large deployments, border situation is not normal. We still have ongoing friction areas, have made progress in resolving some friction areas including Pangong Tso. Our discussion today was how to take this forward,” he said.

The border issue is understood to have figured prominently in the meeting between Wang and Doval too. Both sides agreed on the importance of early and complete disengagement in remaining areas to allow bilateral ties to take their natural course. They also stressed the need to continue positive interactions at diplomatic,military levels for restoration of peace, sources said.

Wang also met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who pressed insisted on an early and complete disengagement of troops in Ladakh, a source with knowledge of the discussions said. “The continuation of the present situation is not in our mutual interest,” the source quoted Doval as telling Wang.

“Restoration of peace and tranquillity will help build mutual trust and create enabling environment for progress in relations,” Doval added.

New Delhi has made it abundantly clear that it cannot be “business as usual” with China until the border stand-off is resolved on mutually acceptable terms.

‘Allow Indian students to return’

Jaishankar also raised with his Chinese counterpart the issue of return of Indian students to China to resume their studies and hoped that Beijing will adopt a “non-discriminatory approach” on it.

“I took up strongly the predicament of Indian students studying in China who have not been allowed to return, citing Covid restrictions. We hope that China will take a non-discriminatory approach since it involves the future of so many young people,” Jaishankar said.

“Minister Wang Yi assured me that he would speak to the relevant authorities on his return on this matter. He also recognised the particular concerns that medical students have in this difficult situation,” he said.

A large number of Indian students had come back to India when China has closed down all universities following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. China had restricted travel by suspending visa and residence permits from March 27, 2020, in view of the pandemic.

‘There should be immediate ceasefire in Ukraine’

The two ministers agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue to defuse the war in Ukraine.

“Wang Yi presented the Chinese understanding, the Chinese view of the situation developed there and the developments pertaining to it, and I presented the Indian view,” Jaishankar said.

The external affairs minister said both sides discussed their respective approaches and perspectives and agreed that diplomacy and dialogue must be the priority.

“I think, the Indian view, many of you may have heard me speak about it yesterday in Parliament as well. And obviously, what he said was his view and what I said was my view, but where we had a common element was that both of us agreed on the importance of an immediate ceasefire as well as a return to diplomacy and dialogue,” he said.

The external affairs minister said in Parliament on 24 March that India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been “steadfast and consistent” and that it wants resolution of the conflict through talks.

India has not criticised Russia yet for its invasion of Ukraine and also abstained from voting at the UN platforms in condemning the Russian attack.

China has close ties with Russia and it has been giving signals about its willingness to assist Moscow in offsetting the impact of economic sanctions announced by the US and other Western countries following the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Wang’s Kashmir remarks at OIC meet discussed

The external affairs minister said that the remark made by Chinese foreign minister at the OIC meet, which had sparked a strong response from New Delhi, featured in their talks.

Jaishankar said he conveyed to Wang that India hopes that China would follow an independent policy in respect to New Delhi and will not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries.

“Did the issue of what Minister Wang Yi said at the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) Conference come up? Yes, it did. I referred to it. I explained to him, why we found that statement objectionable. It was a subject discussed at some length. There was a larger context as well,” Jaishankar told reporters.

“I conveyed that we hope that China would follow an independent policy in respect of India and not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries and other relationships,” said Jaishankar.

3,500 km long border, varied perceptions

The India-China border, stretching from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh, is largely undemarcated. Both sides claim vast swathes of each other’s territory, primarily due to differences in perception about the exact location of the Line of Actual Control.

The border remained largely peaceful since the war of 1962, barring occasional skirmishes- until June 2020.

A violent clash erupted over a Chinese incursion into Indian territory and preventing Indian border patrols. 20 Indian soldiers were martyred when PLA troops attacked with hand-held weapons. Several reports said the Chinese side also suffered at least 35 casualties. However it has never been officially acknowledged by China.

Both sides deployed large number of troops and heavy weaponry in the region following the Galwan clash. The resulting stand-off has not been fully resolved, even after 15 rounds of military-level talks.

Growing trade, and the imbalance

Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

The exports from India to China have increased from $10.17 billion in 2016-17 to $21.19 billion in 2020-21. The imports from China have increased from $61.28 billion to $65.21 billion during the same period.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises and electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market, operate in India.

Since the Galwan clash of 2020, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

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Sri Lanka hosted the fourth National Security Adviser-level trilateral meeting on maritime security cooperation with India and the Maldives. It took place after six years. The last meeting was held in New Delhi in 2014.

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According to a joint statement issued by Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defence, the three countries – recognising the significance of the forum for promoting meaningful cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region on common issues pertaining to maritime security – took stock of the current maritime security environment in the region.

They discussed mutual cooperation in the areas of Maritime Domain Awareness, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief, Joint Exercises, Capacity Building, Maritime Security and Threats, Marine Pollution, and Maritime Underwater Heritage, it said.

They agreed to further strengthen cooperation in dealing with these challenges, to ensure peace and security in the region for common benefit, the joint statement said.

The three countries also exchanged views on common security threats and agreed to broad base cooperation by expanding the scope to improve intelligence sharing and include issues like terrorism, radicalisation, extremism, drugs, arms and human trafficking, money laundering, cyber security and effect of climate change on maritime environment, it said.

Chinese Influence

The meeting took place amidst China’s attempts to enhance its influence in the resource-rich Indo-Pacific region and the Indian Ocean.

China views the Maldives and Sri Lanka as key to its Maritime Silk Road project in the Indian Ocean. It has already acquired the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka on long lease and established a military base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.

The Heads of Delegations agreed to meet regularly to share, discuss and ensure timely implementation of decisions taken at the meeting. They also decided to hold Deputy NSA level working group meetings biannually for cooperation at operational level, according to the statement.

Mauritius and Seychelles were represented virtually at senior officials’ level, it said, adding that in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, the dialogue was conducted adhering to strict health guidelines using the ‘Air Bubble’ concept for the visiting delegations.

Sri Lanka, India and the Maldives launched the Trilateral NSA level Meeting on Maritime Security Cooperation in 2011 and three meetings have been held so far.

The past deliberations and outcomes have helped the three countries in improving close coordination in maritime security of the region. These were supplemented by Deputy NSA level meetings for sustained engagements and implementation of the discussions at the NSA level meetings, the statement said.

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena addressed the meeting as the chief guest. Foreign Secretary Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage also attended the event, the Sri Lankan Foreign Ministry tweeted.

Doval, who arrived in Colombo on Friday for the dialogue, on Friday met Didi and held a cordial and detailed discussion on deepening bilateral partnership with the key island nation in the Indian Ocean.

He called on Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Saturday and had a “productive” discussion with him on the ways to diversify and deepen the bilateral relationship.

NSA-Defence Secretary Meet

Doval also met Gunaratne on Friday and they agreed on several steps to further strengthen the “valuable” cooperation between the two countries which also contributes to peace and security in the region.

The high-level trilateral meeting is designed to initiate collective action on maritime security including maritime domain awareness, legal regimes, train in search and rescue, maritime pollution response, information sharing, curbing piracy drugs arms and contraband trafficking in the Indian Ocean region.

On Thursday, the External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi said the NSA-level trilateral meeting had served as an effective platform for cooperation among Indian Ocean countries.

“The meeting will provide an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region,” the MEA said in a statement.

This is Doval’s second official visit to Sri Lanka this year. In January, he visited the island nation and discussed a range of bilateral issues, including strengthening cooperation in defence, intelligence sharing and maritime security with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

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