Prime minister Imran Khan of Pakistan completed two years in office on August 18 with hardly any positive comments visible in the press or in the cyberspace about him. His scorecard has been much below par in the last two years and the Pakistani people are generally very disappointed by the dismal performance by their premier. Pakistani opposition has described his two-year reign as an unmitigated disaster.

Imran promised a ‘Naya Pakistan’ during his election campaigning through his relatively nascent political party Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) which avowed to rid Pakistan of the malaise of corruption.

He was voted to power as the prime minister since the public and the military were fed up with the military reign of Musharraf and rampant corruption of Nawaz Sharif, his brother Shahbaz and the allies. But Imran failed to comply with his election promises. The experiment failed, as did his manifesto and all other assurances he had given to his electorate.

ALSO READ: PAKISTAN: Emerging Partnership Amongst Subjugated Sindhis, Balochis and Mohajirs

Pakistan’s current scenario is that of turmoil and repeated setbacks, both foreign and domestic, that are unlikely to come to an end in the near future.

The only achievement to his credit was that he leaned completely on the armed forces and kept them on the right side unconditionally and without any reservations. That suited the deep state. The military ran the country from Rawalpindi with Imran Khan as a ceremonial head.

Governance

Pakistan’s half-hearted and vague stance in handling the COVID crisis, rise in cases of religious intolerance, hunger, poverty and allied issues have shown Imran’s governance in very poor light.

Out of the 51 promises made by Imran for a ‘Naya’ Pakistan, hardly five of them were met, that too very not in entirety.

People have reacted to inflationary prices and job loss and responded negatively in polls conducted by Pakistan’s TV channels.

The rot in governance is exemplified by the fact that the pilots of the ill-fated Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) aircraft that crashed in June 2020 killing 97 people were widely believed to have fake licences. It is reported that around 260 commercial pilots of Pakistani origin were grounded across multiple airlines to set things in order. Europe banned all PIA flights for six months.

Economy

Imran Khan had “revolutionary” ideas overcoming indebtedness but was soon at the doorstep of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cope with $95 billion in foreign debt and $135.5 billion in domestic debt.

Saudi Arabia prefers to diversify its oil-based economy and invest in India ignoring Pakistan. Saudi Aramco is aiming for a $15 billion investment in India’s Reliance company – a 20 per cent stake in the refining and petrochemicals business, valued at $75 billion.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Chinese projects under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are facing poor-quality manpower and industrial base.

In May 2020, a massive scam amounting to $630 million was reported in a power project linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Chinese made windfall profits to the tune of 70 per cent by swindling Pakistani customers. A retired Army Commander wields immense powers as the head of CPEC Authority. Imran dare not antagonise the Chinese firms.

According to Pakistan’s official figures, it will pay China $40 billion for the $26.5-billion CPEC investments in 20 years. This figure doesn’t include the $8.2 billion Mainline-I project of Pakistan Railways.

Infrastructure projects are being set up by the government of Pakistan, and thus, the burden of repaying Chinese loans for them will be on the government’s shoulders.

Equipment, building material and services/labour for the CPEC are all to be imported from China. Furthermore, a majority of the companies that will invest in Pakistan’s energy sector are headquartered in China. The banks which will provide these Chinese investors billions of dollars to invest in Pakistan’s power sector are also Chinese.

Ultimately, the country already suffering from a shortage of dollar reserves — Pakistan — will end up pouring a substantial amount into the Chinese economy, and will find itself knocking the doors of the IMF, World Bank, Saudis, Emitaries, EU, USA, UK — and China — for a bailout once again. Pakistan can go bankrupt.

Rearing Terrorists

Terrorists remain active. Various homegrown terror outfits are completely out of control. They are selectively used for cross-border attacks in Kashmir and in Afghanistan. Imran has not been able to contain these outfits nor terror-linked money laundering. Pakistan has failed to comply with the 27 conditions laid by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The June 20202 deadline has been extended to October.

ALSO READ: PAKISTAN: Changing Trends in the Baloch insurgency

The Karachi Stock Exchange was attacked in end-June. It signified abject intelligence failure. The Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the daring attacks. Baluch related activities have risen manifold in the last two years.

Imran’s pro-Taliban rhetoric did not make him too acceptable to the world outside. His reference to Osama bin Laden as a “martyr” of Islam disappointed many who admired Khan for his honesty in financial matters.

The Taliban that Imran once favoured because they were anti-US are now hiding in Afghanistan after committing violence in Pakistan in pursuit of radical sharia. Various factions of the Taliban have united and plan to coerce Pakistan to adopt the caliphate they advocate.

While Pakistan is doing its utmost to meet the deadline of the FATF coming up in October, hasty actions have resulted in naming some terrorists living in Pakistan, sentencing some for their complicity in the Mumbai terror assaults of November 2008 and banning of assets of banned entities. Experts, however, feel that this action is simply cosmetic action to meet the FATF requirements.

Foreign Policy

China, of course, remains its staunchest ally enjoying a complete sway on Pakistan’s economy or territorial strategic interests. But, foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, has messed up the foreign policy which looks to be beyond repair. Traditional ally Saudi Arabia was so angered with Pakistan’s threat to call for a parallel session of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on Kashmir that Imran had to send Army chief Gen Bajwa and ISI head, Faiz Hameed to the Saudi kingdom to apologise.

Islamic countries, which have previously been objective in weighing the relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are openly blaming Pakistan for its inept diplomacy and immature approach in dealing with Saudi Arabia.

Gulf States had balanced their dealings with Pakistan in the past but now, they are openly moving closer towards India and moving away from Pakistan. Saudi Arabia is clearly ignoring Pakistan’s demand seeking support for Kashmir.

There are 2.5 million Pakistani expatriates in Saudi Arabia and annual remittances roughly amount to $821 million which is 30 per cent of the entire remittances. Also, $6.2 billion Ioan from Saudi Arabia took a toll of Pakistani economy which is already in shambles.

Imran Khan took Army Chief Gen Bajwa to the US last year to meet President Trump surprising many and confirming that the Army was calling the shots.

Pakistan’s growing closeness to Turkey has come in for criticism since the latter is desperate to pull Pakistan out of the Saudi camp. Turkey, under Erdogan, is strongly believed to be also responsible for causing fissures in Pakistan-Saudi relations. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are bitter adversaries and the former hates Pakistan acting as a sycophant of the latter. Angst for Turkey is also compounded by the fact that it is making efforts to assume supremacy in global Islamic affairs by cleverly playing the Islamic card.

Relations With India

Imran thought he could normalise relations with India but prime minister Modi was in no mood to oblige until cross-border terrorism stopped.

He has thoroughly mishandled the Kashmir issue by listening to “Muslim” leaders like Erdogan of Turkey and Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia to challenge Pakistan’s Arab friends on not “uniting” against India on Kashmir.

Deep State

There is a sense of uneasiness in the rank and file of the armed forces. After Army Chief Gen Bajwa aborted his trip to Saudi Arabia on 17 August to mend fences, returning red-faced and duly snubbed. Retired Army Chief, Gen Raheel Sharif is presently commander of the Saudi led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) based in Saudi Arabia. His efforts to push his candidature with Riyadh’s backing to play a crucial role in Pakistan, has unnerved the present chief of Pakistan Army.

The Army continues to govern the country by proxy peddling the belief that the serious socio-economic-security problems facing the country are the work of a ‘hidden hand’ – India. Add to that the facade of supporting the Kashmiris is the glue that keeps it going.

Pakistani elite comprising mostly its Army generals and some politicians still manage to project a strong but misplaced notion of national pride built around superiority of its race, military and nuclear weapons leaving millions of innocent Pakistanis in grinding poverty.

Fake websites list Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as the world’s best intelligence service and the former Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif as the world’s best commander!

ISI is anything but a professional agency that intimidates the common man through hired thugs and mercenaries. Raheel Sharif is, in fact, a symbol of corruption and nepotism. All generals in Pakistan never fail to grab acres of land, and run businesses while in service.

Defence Expenditure

Pakistan’s military spending has reached a whopping Rs 1,700 billion (including pension bill) as against a total development budget of Rs 650 billion, even as barely literate and unemployed youth continue to bulge at an alarming rate.

Pakistan is heading towards massive joblessness, around 19 million, which would further accentuate the deplorable social conditions that Pakistanis are already reeling under. Just one-fifth of Pakistan’s defence budget would be sufficient to finance universal primary education in the country, which currently remains abysmally poor.

The generals continue to justify increased defence spending by creating anti-India hysteria. The beneficiaries have mostly been the high-ranking military officers. Pakistani news reports said in April 2016, that former Army Chief and former President of Pakistan Gen Pervez Musharraf was in possession of Rs 2,156 million in net cash in an offshore account in addition to immovable property worth several millions. Former Army Chief and head of ISI, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was known to possess a multi-million dollar Swiss bank account. He was also accused by a fellow officer of being involved in a major land scam in a Defence Housing Scheme.

Political Witch Hunt

Imran has hounded the opposition parties, in particular the Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). He has used the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) to hound the opposition and to hunt down journalists and newspaper-owners critical of Khan’s governance.

Religious Intolerance

Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Shias and Ahmadis among other religious minorities often face discrimination and at times are even subjected to violence. In some cases Christian churches and Ahmadi mosques and the worshippers themselves have been attacked.

Pakistan—a Sunni Muslim majority country with Shia Muslim, Christian, and Hindu minorities—has been convulsed by sectarian violence. Pakistan also topped the list of most number of documented church attacks. out of 428 Hindu temples in Pakistan only around 20 survive today and they remain neglected.

In June 2020, Imran Khan approved a grant of Rs 100mn for the construction of a temple for Islamabad’s 3,000-strong Hindu population. However, a group of clerics and some opposition parties opposed the building of the temple. The Capital Development Authority stopped the construction citing ‘legal reasons’. 

Emboldened by Turkey’s conversion of Hagia Sophia, a former church or Kariye museum in Chora to a mosque, Pakistan, razed a pre-partition Hanuman temple to the ground in Zyari district, which is seen as a clear desecration, if not a sacrilege, of a place of worship. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s hollowed claims of Pakistan being a tolerant and secular country have fallen flat.

 Human Rights

The United Nations OHCHR reports on Kashmir document a number of human rights violations in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir to include restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression and association, impact of counter-terrorism on human rights, land rights, restrictions on the freedom of religion or belief and enforced or involuntary disappearances.

Before being elected, Imran Khan had admitted to the involvement of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies in enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings and vowed to resign if he was unable to put an end to the practice, holding those involved responsible. Independent local and international human rights organisations say 20,000 have reportedly been abducted only from Balochistan, out of which more than 2,500 have turned up dead as bullet-riddled dead bodies, bearing signs of extreme torture.

The Gilgit Baltistan Council was dissolved in 2018, leaving the population without political representation nor voting rights. Senge H Sering, President of Gilgit Baltistan Studies told the UN Human Rights Council on 6 March 2020, “The people of Pakistan-occupied-Gilgit-Baltistan continue to face torture, sedition and terrorism charges and life-imprisonment for opposing onslaught on their resources and cultural identity. Locals are losing battle against worst demographic engineering due to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor that encourages illegal settlements of Pakistanis and Chinese”.

Young Pakistani girls, in the hundreds, mostly from the minority communities, have fraudulently been sold in marriage to the Chinese with the tacit approval of the state; sadly most would end up in prostitution.

Comments

Corruption, fraud and cheating form the very lifeblood of this dysfunctional state. Paranoia, denial, fraud and cheating have begun to define Pakistan’s national character.

Muslims who want to be “modern-Islamic” are unhappy because the state can’t move quickly enough to assimilate the new universalism.

Pakistan refuses to acknowledge that its faulty founding principles and inborn ailments are the root cause of its present state of mess.

To be known as a good Pakistani means you have to love the idea of Pakistan that lives separated from India. If anyone says Pakistan should join India, it’s jail for him.

The post Pakistan Going in Reverse Direction appeared first on IMR.

According to the tweets by Sindhudesh supporters, Lt Gen Abdullah Dogar, Lt Gen Ijaz Chaudhary and Lt Gen Bilal Akbar were among the officers who were suspended from various locations. The dismissal, perhaps, followed due the breach of the Pakistani military ban on using smart phones in the military instalments. However, the fear of a possible coup within the Pakistani military seemed to be a probable reason.

It may be pointed out that Lt Gen Bilal Akbar was infamous for the genocide of Mohajirs and Sindhis in Sindh province, earning the title “Butcher of Sindhis.” He was pushed out as the head of the Pakistani Ordinance Factory allegedly due to his incompetence.

Lt Gen Bilal Akbar and Lt Gen Abdullah Dogar were known contenders for the position of the Pakistani chief of the army staff (COAS), had the Pakistan army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa not received a three-year extension (29 Nov 2019-30 Nov 2022). This resulted in strong discontentment amongst these Generals whose chances of promotion were smashed.

The other probable cause for insubordination was the notion that Gen Bajwa and the Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, were planning to reduce the Punjabi dominance within the Pakistani military. Both the Army chief and the prime minister not being Punjabis, were viewed as a threat to the Punjabi domination within the military. Hence, the frivolous charge of using a secret WhatsApp group was used and stringent action taken by the army chief.

The sacking came at a time when Pakistan was expected to lend support to China in the developing conflict between India and China. With the possibility of insubordination and a coup within its military, Pakistan was found to be busy in clean its own closet before aiding anyone. Regardless, Pakistan continued to prepare for a possible conflict against India.

Unrest in Sindh

A group of Sindhi soldiers refused to fight against India due to the alienation of the Sindhis by the Pakistani government. It was revealed that 15 high-ranking officers and three brigade commanders of Sindhi origin operating on the border with India in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) had gone on leave and had not come back. The situation developed after Altaf Hussian, leader of the Muttahida Quami Movement Sindh, warned Pakistan of trading Sindhi assets for repaying of Pakistan’s loans.

Earlier in June, an open source intelligence (OSINT) twitter id @frontalassault1 posted an undated letter supposedly written by a Pakistani soldier to his superior officers in regard to his commanding officer. The letter addressed issues such as the set-up of radical Islamist training camps, auctioning of military ranks for promotion and discriminatory treatment of non-Punjabi soldiers in wake of Covid crisis.

The disaffection among the Sindhis is no different from that felt by the Baloch, Pashtuns, Mojahirs or Ahmadiyas. The concept of extra judicial killings, abductions and plundering of the ethnic lands of these groups is part of familiar Pakistani treatment when it comes to Pakistan’s discriminatory treatment of non-Punjabis.

Like in the case of Baloch, Sindhis seek self-determination and their own free state of Sindhudesh. Due to the increase in the atrocities on the Sindhis by the Pakistani military, the struggle for freedom has seen the rise of many activists and insurgents in the province. In recent months, multiple attacks have been carried out in Karachi, Ghotki and Larkana on Pakistani Rangers personnel. There seems to be an alliance recently forged between the Baloch, Sindhi ethnic separatist groups and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM).

Sindhi Insurgent Activities

Between 10 and 19 June, a newly proscribed separatist outfit called the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) claimed five attacks on the Rangers in various cities. SRA is a splinter group of the Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA), run by Shafi Burfat.

The nature of the attacks carried out by SRA and SLA have always been low intensity in nature in comparison to the Baloch insurgent-led attacks. The new alliance between the Baloch and the Sindhis has certainly brought new trends and patterns with the frequency of attacks increasing. With the Baloch insurgents working under an umbrella network of Baloch Raaji Aajoi-A-Sangar (BRAS) and the addition of the Sindhi groups to the mix, increased efficiency of the human intelligence network, coverage of more land in terms of movement and bolder attacks has been evident. However, Pakistan has blamed India for the attacks.

According to Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore, the attacks were inspired by “geopolitical underpinnings” between the border disputes of India and China and also the intra-Afghan peace reconciliation process.

The law enforcement officials of Pakistan have continued to underestimate the insurgent groups labelling them as small or “weak”, unable to pose great threats to security, as they believe most of these Sindhi outfits lack organizational structure or a support base. This claim may be questioned, if the newly forged alliance with Balochi insurgents, backed by the MQM, UK is considered with the increase in the frequency of attacks in high security areas such as in Karachi.

MQM is now split in two – one based in UK and the other based in Pakistan. The one based in UK is being considered for a ban by the Pakistan government along with Jeay Sindh Tehreek. The Jeay Sindh Tehreek, another Sindhi group came into the spotlight soon after its head, Dr Safdar Sarki, appeared in a video with the MQM founder a few months ago. The Pakistani government believes that MQM, UK has been supporting the activities of the Sindhi separatists.

A new insurgent group called the Mohajir Freedom Fighters (MFF) claimed responsibility for a recent attack on the relatives of an MQM-Pakistan member of the provincial assembly (MPA) in Karachi’s Orangi Town area.

If Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) resorts to joining the Sindhi-Baloch alliance, it could surely reinforce the movement as a single front against the state of Punjab called Pakistan.

Comments

Like the Baloch, Ahmadiyas and Pashtuns, the Sindhis demand a separate independent state. The Pakistani government, aside from failing in mediation with the groups, continues its forced abductions, extra judicial killings and using the people of these groups for organ harvesting.

While the Baloch demand a share of the profits Pakistan and China make from the Baloch land through CPEC and the investments in their province, the Sindhis are troubled by the construction of dams in Gilgit-Baltistan, which would deprive their areas of any water for irrigation. The Sindhis believe the construction of dams such as Diamer-Basha dam and Kalabagh dam would deprive them of their share with the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) also. The contract for the Diamer Basha dam has been awarded to a Chinese company.

There is a growing subnationalism between both the Sindh and Punjab region also due to the blockading of the water supplied by the Indus river.

Given the backdrop of the atrocities inflicted by Pakistan, the Baloch and Sindh insurgent groups have forged a united front. It is no surprise that the Punjab-centric Pakistan is falling apart by marginalizing other provinces, which in turn will only diminish the identity of Pakistan.

The post PAKISTAN: Emerging Partnership Amongst Subjugated Sindhis, Balochis and Mohajirs appeared first on IMR.

Similarities with Attack on Chinese Consulate

The four men were shot dead by security forces. A policeman and two security guards were also reported to have died. The BLA members threw a grenade while attempting to infiltrate the complex and were killed in the process at the gates of the complex. This was similar in pattern to the BLA-claimed attack in Karachi in 2018 on the Chinese consulate, where the attackers were also killed at the gates.

The commonalities stem from the fact that both attacks were undertaken by the BLA, both were suicide attacks in nature and both gained large media coverage but could not be said to be militarily very effective. Secondly, the casualties were low on the Pakistani law enforcement side with few civilians were killed. Thirdly, it can be anticipated that the Baloch insurgents were prepared for a longer haul with a hostage situation in mind, indicated by the back packs with food and ammunition which were recovered. Lastly, both represented similar endeavours to strike outside their traditional areas in or near Balochistan, especially the attempts to penetrate the high security areas in Karachi, which clearly highlighted the similarities between the embassy and stock exchange attacks. However, the most important facet behind both the attacks was the attempt to target the Chinese.

Both attacks also generated media publicity of the Baloch struggle. They raised the question of limited information or surveillance capability of the insurgent group in Karachi since both the attacks showed lack of proper reconnaissance , detailed planning and insider assistance normally so useful for such attacks.

Ruthless Suppression

Amidst the pandemic of Covid-19, speculations erupted as to whether the Pakistani military had been employing death squads to crush the Baloch freedom movement. Since the killing of Akbar Bugti in 2004, the province of Balochistan has experienced ruthless repression from the Pakistani military forces. Reports of the missing Baloch people, activists and freedom fighters have been surfacing in the media regularly but to no avail. With the fear of the marginalization in their own province, continued subjugation and Pakistan`s “Kill and Dump policy” of the Baloch in play, the Baloch insurgency has come as a natural reaction to this genocide. Over the years, the Baloch insurgency has evolved and has expanded systematically.

Recently, the acceleration up of the Chinese projects and investments in the province and the extra judicial killings of the Baloch at the hands of the Pakistani military, has only become a catalyst to intensify the Baloch movement. One man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorists. The Baloch have so far been operating largely as Insurgents and freedom fighters targeting the Pakistani army and economic infrastructure. The two attacks in Karachi seem to show a shift to the cities to gain media traction because the Pakistanis have been systematically blocking all information of Baloch attacks in the countryside.

While the Baloch are fighting for an independent Baluchistan, the Pakistani government has declared many Baloch insurgent groups as terror outfits. As per the South Asia Terror Portal (SATP), maximum number of terrorist outfits proscribed by the Pakistani government are the Baloch insurgents such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republic army (BRA) and Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) to name a few.

Coalition of Freedom Fighters

In recent months, the Baloch movement has seen a transformation of sorts. The insurgency is no longer limited to rural bases but has reached urban areas as well. There is a certain level of sophistication and technical improvement in the tactical operations of the Baloch insurgents. The recent attacks by the Baloch outfits on the Pakistani security forces also suggest a larger and more effective human intelligence network employed by the Baloch insurgents in the countryside. The same is not true of Karachi.

The motivation to attack the PSX could be the fact that the PSX sold 40 per cent strategic shares to a Chinese consortium comprising three Chinese exchanges – China Financial Futures Exchange Company Limited (lead bidder), Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The entire transaction was worth $85 million as reported by the Pakistani newspaper Dawn.

In the past year, BLA has boldly circulated videos on social media, warning Chinese President Xi Jinping to “get out of Balochistan”. These videos surfaced when an attack was claimed by the “Majeed Brigade” on a five-star hotel in Gwadar, which accommodates Chinese delegations.

Apart from the recent Karachi Stock Exchange attack, large number of Baloch insurgent attacks have been reported in the areas in the border region near Iran and in areas closest to the province’s capital, Quetta in recent months.

The rise in the reported fatalities of the Pakistani military personnel and security forces in Islamabad, has certainly sparked concern in Pakistan. The fear of a coalition between the Baloch and other insurgent groups to destabilize Pakistan has been resonating in Islamabad.

A total of 26 Baloch-led attacks have been verified in Pakistan in 2020. Some of the prominent attacks were – attack on Frontier Corps vehicles through a remote-controlled improvised explosive devices (IED) in Kech district’s Buleda area, about 14 km from the Iran border which killed a major and five soldiers. attack on a military convoy by a roadside IED near Quetta, on 9 May, which killed six Pakistani soldiers; attack on two military outposts in Pakistan’s restive frontier coastal province on 6 June, which killed at least seven Pakistani military personnel.

Although some of these attacks were denied by the BLA. there is a possibility that these were revenge attacks by the BLA against atrocities carried out by the so-called death squads of criminals led by ISI against the people of Balochistan.

Earlier, in February, guerillas of the Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) targeted the Pakistani Army post in the Singsila area, killing 16 Pakistani army personnel. BLT is the third constituent of the Baloch Raaji Aajoi-A-Sangar  (BRAS) rebel coalition. The possibility of joint operations was further confirmed when BRAS, an umbrella group of Baloch insurgent groups operating in the province confirmed various attacks conducted by the BLA and BLF.

Since the two attacks in May, there has been speculation that the BLA and BLF were again conducting joint operations as they had in the past, despite some differences between the two. Due to the discord between the Baloch insurgent groups, the latter had become weak and suffered at the hands of Pakistani security forces. The Centre of Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR) has observed that the new trends indicated a complete shift.

With a change in the mindset of the Baloch insurgent groups, it is evident that the modus operandi of the Baloch insurgents has resulted in a more unified approach in the conduct of operations.

Apart from the Pakistani military personnel being targeted, the Chinese have been frequently targeted by the BRAS. The possibility of marginalization of the Baloch with the increase in the Chinese population in the area has certainly invited an aggressive approach from the Baloch freedom fighters. The concern for the safety of the Sino-Pak joint projects has resulted in a more upgraded and iron-fisted approach from Pakistan.

As a retaliation to the BLA and BLF, an operation by the Pakistani military called the Ground Zero Clearance Operation was carried out. Its aim was to neutralize the Baloch insurgent bases and support networks around the Pak-Iranian border.

Pakistan believes that the lack of control and inability of the Iranian forces to monitor the Baloch insurgent bases had led to a thriving network across the border. It is expected that Pakistani security forces may tighten the fencing and monitoring of the region around the Iranian border.

It is also evident that the allocation of additional resources to strengthen the military operations against the insurgents strongly indicates the failure of the Pakistani military to curb insurgency.

Human Rights Violations

Pakistan Army has been accused of various human rights violations in its crackdown in Balochistan.

Pakistan`s regular counter-terrorist operations in the province as part of Operation ‘Radd-ul-Fasad’ (launched on 22 February 2017) has not limited itself from killing its own people in the façade of eliminating the terrorists.

It is revealed in online sources, that Pakistan Army plans a forced migration of local Balochi tribes in the general areas of Rustam Khan Shehr. The chances of seeing the insurgency dissipating is nothing short of wishful thinking.

 Pakistani media newsrooms, have been known to handle the topic of Balochitan with kid`s gloves.”Most of Balochistan’s problems are rooted in the military conflict and how its governed. That’s why there’s no room for independent reporting as it inevitably leads to talking about the root-causes of insurgency, grievances of the nationalists, and the establishment’s questionable actions in the province. Therefore, media networks try to stay clear of Balochistan. And if they do report, it’s usually based on the information approved by the ISPR.” As mentioned by Shahzeb Jillani, former senior executive editor and correspondent, Dunya News.

The strong control of ISI on the perception management of Balochistan, has led to a “structural exclusion of Balochistan’s existence, its struggles and its aspirations”.

Comments

Pakistan has failed to differentiate between the narrative of subnationalists and the insurgents, which it has collectively proscribed as terror outfits. It has failed to appease the people of the Baloch province and strongly alienated them by introducing its death squads to carry out extrajudicial killings and the abduction of Baloch civilians. While the Pakistani security forces have resorted to a more aggressive approach to eradicate the insurgent groups, a certain change in the trend is evident in the attacks claimed by the Baloch insurgents. With the formation of the BRAS, just like the Jihadi Council operating against India, the Baloch insurgency has not only expanded in terms of its outreach and intel, but has been effective in their attacks against its oppressors. The frequency of the Baloch insurgency has seen a new spike compared to the past with 26 attacks within three months of 2020.

Islamabad has always struggled to maintain relationships with Baloch nationalists who believe that their own land has been plundered of its natural resources by Pakistan and the China, without any gain for the Baloch.

The situation in Balochistan has exacerbated since the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a leading project of China’s One Belt and One Road initiative in the province which begins at Khunjerab Pass in Gilgit-Baltistan ends at Gwadar.

While the port city of Gwadar lies in Balochistan, its post is being operated by the Chinese. It would have been easily predicted that Gwadar would be an easy target for the insurgents who feel the pangs of being exploited in their own region. The separatist groups have already been targeting the Chinese engineers working in the area and have also attacked the Chinese consulate in Karachi in 2018.

The failure of the Pakistani government in addressing the political and economic grievances of the Baloch along with the Pakistani military`s adamant decision to seize control through force has triggered strong elements of subnationalism and Baloch freedom movement.

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