The radar was displayed for the first time at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai (Guangdong), which concluded on November 13. The ten-meter-tall SLC-18 radar is said to be particularly successful in detecting and tracking multiple Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in all conditions. 

LEO satellites are located anywhere from 200 kilometers to 2,000 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. These satellites are used primarily for data collection and military surveillance and have steadily evolved into critical equipment for powerful countries seeking remote intelligence. 

LEO satellites can carry out intense, 360-degree, and all-factor hotspot surveillance thanks to their powerful capability, small size, and flexible orbits. China’s new radar is capable of monitoring such satellites.

The SLC-18 was developed by the state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), which also manufactures electronic systems and components, missiles, radars, and other weapons for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Sun Lei, CETC deputy general manager, said, “This radar will allow friendly countries to locate targets in space.” The statement hints at China’s desire to provide Pakistan with a radar system. 

The system provides capabilities for situational awareness against low-orbiting satellites to balance the tactical stance. This radar is substantially less expensive than others in its class, adding an affordability factor for Pakistan. 

It is important to note that India is a significant space power with a diverse array of satellites in orbit. This enables New Delhi to monitor Islamabad’s every action. However, with the SLC-18 radar, Pakistan could detect where the Indian satellites are. 

China and Pakistan have close ties, referring to one another as “iron brothers” and “all-weather allies” in their bilateral declarations. China is Pakistan’s top supplier of military equipment, including aircraft, missiles, and warships.

Islamabad is also crucial to China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. Highlighting that point, Sun emphasized that the SLC-18 radar’s situational awareness against LEO satellites and competitively priced ground-based space target monitoring can help the Belt and Road Initiative.

In the five years between 2017 and 2021, according to data from the Swedish research tank SIPRI, which contains information on weapon transfers, Pakistan imported 72% of its total weapons from China, and it was also the end recipient of 47% of all of China’s major arms exports.

In addition, China has armed Pakistan with its HQ 9/P HIMADS (High to Medium Air Defense System), which was inducted into the Pakistan Army Air Defense in October 2021.

With a single-shot kill probability, the HQ 9 can intercept various air targets, such as aircraft, cruise missiles, and weapons, beyond the optical range of more than 100 kilometers.

SLC-18 Radar Capabilities 

The SLC-18 radar, a P-band solid-state active phased array radar, is primarily used to detect space targets. It can track and measure several objects while searching for and capturing LEO satellites and other space targets.

Sun told the Global Times that the SLC-18 radar could identify and catalog satellites to create a radar database, which may be used to direct other equipment to respond accordingly. 

This development also alters the traditional practices of developing nations purchasing satellite data from developed countries, which may be compromised and very expensive because they lack the necessary space-based resources and platforms.

The SLC-18 can detect satellites from a distance and relay satellite data to the command center to help make decisions. It has wide-area detection capability, allowing it to instantly record a satellite’s orbit and enter it into a database. Based on the orbit parameters, it can immediately assess whether it is a new satellite type and its primary usage.

Sun pointed out that the radar has essential advantages such as all-weather, all-time, multi-target, immense power, and extensive search areas, which can identify LEO targets in various airspace and cover many LEO satellite targets.

He added that the radar is entirely built in China, from chip production to manufacturing. It also uses a modular design to extend its capabilities as needed. This suggests that China’s radar development has advanced to a new level.

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READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochment Between India and China—Part 1)

The Galwan Clash

A border standoff in eastern Ladakh erupted on 5 May 2020. The face-off escalated after the Galwan Valley clashes.

On 15 June 2020, Chinese troops, estimated to be more than 250, attacked a group of 50 Indian soldiers who were inspecting the progress of the Chinese withdrawal from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Galwan Valley. The encounter ended in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an undeclared number of Chinese troops, and led to a prolonged standoff between the two sides.

There had not been a single death from hostilities at the LAC in over 45 years — since 1967 – despite several hundred Chinese LAC violations annually.

The Current Situation is not promising.

The 16th Border Meeting was held on 17 July 2022, a step-by-step de-escalation was agreed but very little progress has been made.

The stated Indian position has been that until and unless there is peace and tranquility on the border, overall China-India relations cannot much progress. So far, India has remained reluctant to engage China normally in the bilateral context.

Beijing has repeatedly said that border standoff does not represent the entirety of China-India relations, while New Delhi has maintained that peace along the frontier is essential for the two countries to work together.

Chinese violations the LAC in all sectors are growing in frequency – up to 660 LAC violations by the PLA in 2019. There is an uncommon level of hostility, including fist-fighting and rock throwing that were rare prior to 2017.

The trends suggest LAC standoffs are growing more hostile, more frequent, longer in duration, and are receiving more media coverage and international attention, potentially restricting both sides’ room for manoeuvre.

There is a substantial massing of military forces in Ladakh to positions near the LAC.

Why Did China Resort to Aggression?

Some of the likely reasons are discussed below

Infrastructure Development. There has been an acceleration of Indian infrastructure development near the LAC in an attempt to close a substantial deficit with China there.  In April 2019, India completed work on the critical Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road running parallel to the LAC in Ladakh, stretching all the way to its northernmost outpost at Daulet Beg Oldi. More recently, India began building east-west feeder roads from DSDBO to its forward outposts near the LAC. This year, India was also reportedly engaged in efforts to improve road infrastructure at Pangong Lake.

China has attempted to pressure India to halt infrastructure activities. India refused to heed China’s calls; the PLA applied military pressure. Only this time with more troops, more equipment, more locations, more pressure, and one potentially bold attempt to change the status quo at Pangong Lake.

India continues to construct and modernize over 60 “strategic roads” along the LAC, with an expected completion date of 2022.

Galwan River area has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to DBO – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh.

Major Power Diplomacy. China tried to woo India to hedge against the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and making it a key partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. India declined.

China’s Neighborhood Strategy. China wants to effectively check a rising New Delhi by asserting its strength and psychological advantage in bilateral ties.  It wants to have a China-centered regional order with Beijing as the sole leader or rule-maker in the region.

Blame for Pandemic. China believed that India was catalyzing resentment against Beijing over poor handling of the pandemic that originated in Wuhan. India took over as the chair of the WHO executive Board on 22 May 2020 and it had a say in the probe into the origins of the pandemic and Taiwan’s participation in the 72nd session of the World Health Assembly.

Internal Dissent. Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced one of the biggest crises since the party came to power in 1949 because of dissatisfaction in handling the pandemic and the consequent surge in economic distress. At the NPC plenary, President Xi’s expected message was conciliatory to the domestic audience, while the international assertion was to be robust and defiant.

Restrictions on Chinese investments. The Chinese government took offence to India’s new rule notified in early April 2020 that blocked Chinese companies from acquiring Indian firms without government approval. The Indian government decided that all procurement orders of Rs 200 crore or less could not go to foreign companies. It could discourage cheap exports from China. Since the clash, India has also banned 224 Chinese Apps and a few dozen Chinese companies are facing tax evasion scrutiny including ZTE, Huawei, One Plus, Xiaomi and Vivo.

Change of J&K Status. India abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution on Jammu & Kashmir, which provided the province special status and autonomy on 5 Aug 2019. J&K was made a Union Territory directly administered from Delhi. China described India’s move as “unacceptable”, undermining its “sovereignty” — even raised the issue at the UN Security Council. Frequent calls have been made by Indians to integrate Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit- Baltistan as these territories rightfully belong to India. China is concerned about these demands since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of the ‘China Dream’ and the Karakoram Highway passes through these Indian territories to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.

India’s Accelerating Partnership with the US. China is concerned with India’s increasing and growing proximity to the US which it belives is aimed at countering China. Some of the developments which have taken place are

•             Major Non-NATO Defense Partner with all basic enabling agreements in place.

•             Over $20 billion in defense sales to India MQ-9B unmanned aerial systems; P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, C-130J transport aircraft, C-17 planes, MH-60R multi mission maritime helicopters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, CH-47 Chinook helicopters)

•             U.S.-India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative

•             Institutionalised 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue (2018)

•             Quad Initiative (March 2021).

•             Exemption from buying the S-400 Triumf AD systems from Russia

•             Malabar joint exercises

•             Close collaboration in Covid-19 response

•             Counterterrorism Joint Working Group

•             Homeland Security Dialogue

•             Counter Narcotics Working Group

The Ukraine War

With the attention of the US-led West diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine instead of countering China in the Indo-Pacific, an emboldened Beijing is likely to indulge in muscle-flexing along the LAC, especially in the Arunachal sector.

India will have to grapple with a more belligerent China along its northern borders as a fallout of the Ukraine crisis.

The PLA has shown no signs of de-escalating the 21-month-long troop confrontation in eastern Ladakh, even as it has systematically strengthened its military positions and infrastructure all along the LAC.

Apart from conventional military capabilities, China’s focus on space, cyberspace and “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare has been a major concern for India.

India’s Encirclement By China

New Delhi has numerous other concerns regarding China’s activities in almost all of India’s neighbouring countries.

Today, China with its unmistakable clout in South and Southeast Asia has used its economic-political-military influence, in intensifying its ties with Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Maldives causing Indo-China political and security discord.

According to the US annual report “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 2020” the Pentagon says that in addition to the Chinese military base in Djibouti, China is seeking to set up military logistics facilities in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. In addition, China is considering to base its military logistics and infrastructure in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan.

China is using the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative first announced in 2013, to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade linkages to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond.

While China finances the developmental projects in target countries, information about its loaning operations are kept secretive and vague. Consequently, governments of BRI countries end up being completely unaware of the amount of money that they owe to China when contracts expire since loans extended to Chinese state-owned companies, banks, special purpose vehicles, joint ventures, and private sector institutions. The terms and conditions of the loans give China the right to use the finished projects and land as collateral if the latter were to default on loan repayments.

Potentially, these projects, when taken over could provide a global PLA military logistics network to interfere with military operations against China and support its own offensive operations as the Chinese global military objectives evolve.

Let us look at Chinese inroads into India’s neighbouring countries.

Myanmar

Myanmar is also part of BRI and likely to face the Chinese Debt Trap. There is also a lack of trust on the Myanmar side, due to China’s historical role in supporting rebel groups in Myanmar.

China and Myanmar share a 2,227-kilometer-long border. They have a boundary protocol signed in 1961, to conduct joint inspections every five years. But this has only occurred twice—in 1984-86 and 1992-95. A dispute over the border between Myanmar’s northern Shan State and China has simmered since 2008. Parts of the 200 km fence built by China have been pulled down by locals. The Chinese government is pushing Myanmar to implement the long-delayed Belt and Road Initiative projects and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) Chinese townships are coming up inside Myanmar border areas administered by Wa authorities. The expansion of Chinese influence is obvious.

The CMEC will terminate at a new deep-water port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. Some analysts have raised fears that the port could someday be used as a base or access point by the PLA.

China has a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence station on Great Coco Island in Myanmar. The Chinese Army is also building a base on Small Coco Island in the Alexandra Channel between the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea north of India’s Andaman Islands. These two islands, which have been leased to China since 1994.

Bangladesh

China is considered as an ‘all-weather friend’ of Bangladesh – Their ties cover geopolitical, economic spheres and defence ties form a key area of their relationship.

Bangladesh forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative-BRI. But all is not well between their ties. China tends to interfere with Bangladesh’s foreign relations matters.

Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jimming, on May 10, 2021, warned Dhaka against joining the QUAD and said that if Bangladesh did so, it will “substantially damage” bilateral relations between Bangladesh and China.

China accounted for around 74 percent of Bangladesh’s arms imports between 2010– 2019 including submarines.

Bhutan

Bhutan shares an over 400-km-long border with China and the two countries have held over 24 rounds of boundary talks in a bid to resolve the dispute.

Bhutan and China issued a 1988 Joint Communique on the Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Boundary and signed agreement on the maintenance of peace, tranquillity and status quo in the Bhutan-China Border areas in Kunming in April 2021.

China is using all tactics available to it for twisting Bhutan’s arms. China has established new villages roads and military or police outposts in disputed Bhutanese territory.

The Chinese game plan is probably to exchange it for another disputed pocket around Doklam, in western Bhutan at the cost of India’s security.

China seems to have managed to effectively lower India’s influence in Bhutan.

Nepal

China is trying to succeed in replacing India as the key economic as well as security partner for Nepal.

China’s main interest in Nepal has always been led by its concerns over Tibet. 25,000 Tibetans live in Nepal.

The Chinese have always considered Nepal the soft underbelly of Southern Tibet and are now determined to keep it under their influence.

Under a Marxist government, Nepal is trying to reshape its ties with China as a possible counterweight to India by proposing extension of their railway network from Tibet to Nepal, infratsructure projects and providing land link to Chinese ports.

Nepal as a buffer is important for India but India is losing its clout in Nepal to China.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka joined China’s BRI with several projects but now Colombo has fallen into the premeditated scheme of a Chinese debt trap, paying off its loans through debt-equity swaps to creating extra-jurisdictional Special Economic Zones.

An often-cited example of the ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ is the case of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, where the local government was forced to sign the port away on a 99-year lease after failing to repay Chinese loans.

For India, Lanka is an island that can be transformed into a veritable enemy aircraft carrier anchored on her doorstep, within strike range. Sri Lanka is also a potential kick-off point for an Antarctica mission at some future point.

Maldives

Maldives is barely 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy island in India’s Lakshadweep archipelago and 300 nautical miles away from India’s west coast.

Until 2017, Maldives was part of the Indian security grid receiving defence and economic assistance from India.

In 2013, after Abdulla Yameen came to power, Xi visited Maldives. Maldives joined the Maritime Silk Road and the two nations inked a free trade agreement. Chinese infrastructure projects flourished. Maldives accumulated a debt of nearly $3.1 billion (GDP $4 billion). There have been speculations about a possible Chinese naval base in Maldives. However, since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih came to power as president in 2018 after defeating Yameen, India has been prioritized over China.

Pakistan

China’s “irreplaceable, all-weather friend” Pakistan is China’s biggest arms buyer, counting for nearly 47% of Chinese arms exports.

China has established ammunition factories, provided technological assistance and modernised existing facilities.

The Chinese Chengdu J-10B fighter and Low to Medium Altitude Air Defence System (LOMADS) LY-80 has been supplied to the Pakistan Air Force. The Chinese have provided technology to manufacture JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, AWACS systems and Al-Khalid tanks.

China is the largest investor in Pakistan’s Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.

China played a major role in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure, such as in building the Khushab reactor (for production of plutonium) and the completion of the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility.

China inroads in  Pakistan/Sindh/Baluchistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, under the garb of BRI and strategic importance attached by it to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are an open secret.

India’s Opposition to CPEC. India has not endorsed the CPEC because it passes through the contested Gilgit-Baltistan region that remains, according to India, under the illegal occupation of Pakistan.

It is crucial for China to gain control over the Gilgit-Baltistan region (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir PoK), as the region borders the Xinjiang province of China.

CPEC would link Pakistan’s southern Gwadar port in Balochistan on the Arabian Sea to China’s western Xinjiang region. It also includes plans to create road, rail and oil pipeline links to improve connectivity between China and the Middle East.

Gwadar port, located on the Arabian Sea, will allow China to have a say in global energy economics as the country can use a naval base to hold control over the maritime traffic passing between West Asia.

READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochement Between India and China? (Part 3)

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The Pakistanis wanted to use the opportunity to convert it into a state visit. The Chinese refused to entertain Pakistani requests. They also asked the Pakistanis to cut down Imran’s entourage to just about four ministers from the nearly dozen that the Pakistani Prime Minister was planning to take with him. Even the audience with the Emperor was granted after a lot of entreaties from the Pakistani side. There was some speculation in Pakistani media whether Xi would even meet Imran. In the end, however, both the Chinese premier and the president held ‘brief’ meetings with Imran. The Pakistanis had also sought a meeting with the Russian president who was also in Beijing at the same time. But the Russians did not make time for a bilateral between Putin and Imran.

On the eve of the visit, the Pakistani media had published stories about all the goodies that would be bestowed by Xi on Imran. There was talk of Russia and Kazakhstan giving a billion dollars each in addition to a $3-billion loan from China. The total money expected from China was around $11 billion – about $4 billion in rollover of earlier debt, about $4.5 billion in credit-swap arrangements (which is used less for funding trade with China – its original purpose – and more for funding balance of payments) and an additional $3 billion in other loans. But closer to the visit, the Pakistani officials debunked all these reports about the loans that were being expected.

It was clear that the goody bag Imran was expecting in return for paying obeisance in the court of Emperor Xi was going to be a lot lighter than what was being originally expected. From what is available in the public domain, the only real worthwhile thing to come from the visit was the ‘Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation under CPEC’ between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Pakistan’s Board of Investment. This agreement is expected to provide the foundation for the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But bulk of the heavy lifting under this framework agreement has to be done by Pakistan. Given the past track record of the Pakistanis, this appears to be a very onerous task especially since none of the Special Economic Zones have so far delivered even the basic facilities to potential investors.

The Joint Statement was full of verbiage – the standard homilies being paid to the ‘all weather friendship’ between the two ‘Iron Brothers’, and the usual encomiums that Pakistanis heap on Xi’s visionary leadership, the various accomplishments of China and the Pakistani support to One China, and on Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, blah, blah blah. In return, the Chinese “reaffirmed their support for Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and security”. Nothing new here.

Similarly, despite the Pakistanis playing up the purported Chinese backing on Kashmir, the formulation in the Joint Statement was pretty standard, no different from what the Chinese have said so many times in the past: Kashmir issue was a dispute left from history, and should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements. China opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation. If anything, the ‘unilateral actions’ bit is something of a double-edged sword. While it cuts at India in the context of the constitutional reforms in Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019, it also cuts at Pakistani plans to annex Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (what they euphemistically call “Azad Jammu and Kashmir”) and the Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) region.

Out of the six-page Joint Statement, around one page was about CPEC and how both sides were committed to the ambitious project that has been in a sort of go-slow mode ever since Imran Khan became Prime Minister in 2018. But notwithstanding all the hackneyed formulations on CPEC – “win-win enterprise”, “pivotal for regional prosperity” – and promises to re-energise it and “safeguard it from all threats and negative propaganda”, there are serious problems affecting the CPEC. The Pakistanis are already in default on some of the payments they owe the Chinese power plants set up under CPEC. Nearly seven years after they agreed to set up a revolving fund to ensure that there is no circular debt in Chinese power projects, this fund has still not been set up. There are also reports of Pakistan seeking renegotiations on the contracts they have signed with the Chinese. But the Chinese are not ready to cut any slack for their ‘sweeter than honey’ friends. In addition, one of the most crucial components of CPEC was the ML-1 rail line connecting Peshawar to Karachi. This project continues to hang in limbo because there is as yet no agreement on the financing. The Pakistanis have no money to pay their side of the $6-8 billion cost of this railway line.

As if this were not enough, there is the entire security question. The Pakistanis have raised a force of over 10,000 to guard the Chinese. But there have been regular attacks against the Chinese. While most of these attacks have so far been carried out by Baloch freedom fighters, there have also been instances of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants targeting the Chinese. The attack on Chinese engineers and workers working on the Dasu Dam project has cost Pakistan heavy in terms of compensations demanded by the Chinese. The recent attacks in Noshki, Panjgur and Kech in Balochistan would have certainly set off alarm bells in China. The massive protests in Gwadar would also have spooked the Chinese. Add to this the unsettled conditions in Afghanistan, where the Taliban are showing no signs of curbing Islamist militants targeting both China and Pakistan. There are, therefore, serious doubts on how much private Chinese investment will come to Pakistan under the second phase of CPEC. If the second phase doesn’t take off, Pakistan will find it difficult, even impossible, to service the Chinese debt.

Clearly, the economic glue to the China-Pakistan relationship is coming unstuck. But it would be a mistake to reach the conclusion that China-Pakistan strategic relationship is getting fractured. There is absolutely no sign of that because neither side can afford a divorce, or even a separation. This is despite the fact that there are people in Pakistan who are now realising the perils and pitfalls of getting in too deep with the Chinese. But efforts to balance the relationship with China with the relationship with the West is easier said than done. For now, for Pakistan, China is the only game in town. The Chinese too are in no position to turn their back on Pakistan. Chances are they will use their leverages to extract whatever they can but they will not let things reach break point. Even so, the first signs of strains are starting to appear in the Chi-Pak relationship, and all the spin being put on Imran Khan’s visit to Beijing isn’t going to cover this up.

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Massive protests erupted in Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar against unnecessary checkpoints, a severe shortage of water and electricity and threats to livelihoods from illegal fishing, part of a growing backlash in the country against China’s multibillion-dollar belt and road projects.

The protests organised by workers of some political parties, civil rights activists, fishermen and concerned citizens went on for a week at Y Chowk on Port Road in Gwadar, a coastal town in the restive Southwest Balochistan province of Pakistan.

The protesters demand the removal of unnecessary security check posts, availability of drinking water and electricity, eviction of big fishing trawlers from the Makran coast and opening of the border with Iran from Panjgur to Gwadar.

Head of the ‘Give rights to Gwadar’ rally Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman said the protests would continue until their demands were met, asserting that the government had not been sincere in resolving the problems of the local people living in the region.

Rehman strongly criticised the government in the past for failing to resolve the basic problems of the people of Gwadar.

“We are demanding the rights of Gwadar, which were usurped by the rulers and the people were even deprived of basic needs. The fishermen were not able to earn their livelihood as big trawlers were allowed for fishing at Makran Coast,” he said at a public meeting in October.

Rehman said despite building the Gwadar Deep Sea Port, the people of the city were still jobless and the government had done nothing about it.

“It is an insult for the sons of soil when they are stopped at checkpoints and inquired about their whereabouts,” he was quoted as saying.

The protests were part of growing discontent with China’s presence in Gwadar, whose port is an integral part of the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC), the flagship project of China’s multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

India has protested to China over the CPEC as it traverses through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). The massive infrastructure project connects China’s Xinjiang province with Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

Gwadar port has long been portrayed as the jewel in the CPEC crown, but in the process, the city has become the very embodiment of a security state.

The authorities’ priorities are geared towards securing the port and its ancillary interests; the welfare of those for whom the area is home counts for little. Far from the port being a harbinger of an economic boom, the opposite has happened, The Dawn newspaper reported. Existing privations have deepened; people’s mobility is restricted by security forces and there is unwarranted questioning of their activities. Many say they are made to feel like strangers in their own land, it said.

Adding to the miseries of a large number of fishermen among the populace, the government, they complain, had issued licences to Chinese trawlers to fish in the waters off the coast. Their small boats cannot possibly compete, as a result of which their livelihoods were being squeezed. This was the petri dish of discontent from which the recent protests had sprung, it added.

Attacks Against Chinese

Balochistan is home to a long-running violent insurgency, and China’s presence in Gwadar has been the cause of much social unrest and led to anti-Chinese sentiment.

It has also given a fillip to Baloch militant insurgent groups, who have carried out terrorist attacks in protest at CPEC projects.

Baloch separatists, both militant and political groups, oppose China’s increasing involvement in the province. In November 2018, Baloch separatists attacked the Chinese consulate in Pakistan’s southern Karachi city.

On 21 August 2021, a convoy carrying Chinese personnel working on the East-Bay Expressway project was attacked by a suicide bomber in Gwadar. Two children were killed and three including one Chinese national was wounded in the attack.

On 14 July, 13 people, including nine Chinese engineers, died when a bus carrying the team working on the Dasu Hydropower Project was attacked by militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

In October last year, gunmen killed at least 14 people near Ormara on the coastal highway after ambushing a convoy of vehicles travelling from Gwadar to Karachi, and in 2019, five people, including a Pakistani Navy soldier, were killed in an attack on the luxury Pearl Continental hotel in Gwadar.

While the threat from religiously motivated militants having sanctuaries in Afghanistan is very real, Baloch separatists also operate out of Pakistan’s western neighbour. The banned Baloch Liberation Army claimed it had carried out the Gwadar attack.

Anti-Chinese Resentment

Balochistan remains Pakistan’s poorest and least populous province despite a number of development projects Islamabad initiated there in the past. Rebel groups have waged a separatist insurgency in the province for decades, complaining that the central government in Islamabad and the richer Punjab province unfairly exploit their resources. Islamabad reacted to the insurgency by launching a military operation in the province in 2005.

With the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Beijing aims to expand its influence in Pakistan and across Central and South Asia in order to counter US and Indian influence. The CPEC would link Pakistan’s southern Gwadar port in Balochistan on the Arabian Sea to China’s western Xinjiang region. It also includes plans to create road, rail and oil pipeline links to improve connectivity between China and the Middle East.

Brahamdagh Bugti, leader of the Baloch Republican Party living in exile in Switzerland, and grandson of slain nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti, says that Chinese economic projects in Balochistan were aimed at “colonizing” the province, and must be resisted. “None of the previous development projects in Balochistan have ever been beneficial to the province or its people,” Bugti says.

Pakistani Opposition senators say that the Pakistan government was appeasing China and giving contracts to Beijing without taking the Baloch people into confidence. Despite Chinese investments, Balochistan remains extremely poor with no proper health facilities, education and housing or even clean drinking water.

Balochistan province was not getting its due share of royalties from the Chinese projects. The contractual process and terms with the Chinese companies were not transparent.

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An IMR ReportChinese foreign minister, Wang Yi and his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi met, on 21 August, in Hainan for the two-day second round of China-Pakistan strategic foreign ministers’ dialogue.

Qureshi’s visit was one of the first high-profile diplomatic visits to China as the country emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. It was a time when both Beijing and Islamabad’s ties with New Delhi had taken a nosedive over the Sino-India border tension in eastern Ladakh, and abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir.

The last China-Pakistan foreign ministers’ strategic dialogue was held in March, 2019. Zhao said it had led to consensus on several matters and played an important role in the development of bilateral relations.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian said the dialogue mechanism was a platform for the two “iron brothers” to coordinate exchanges in various fields, discuss policy suggestions on the bilateral ties and enhance coordination and communication on international and regional issues.

ALSO READ: China Oppposes Pak Unilateral Action on Kashmir

Wang and Qureshi discussed the progress of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project under President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the ambitious connectivity venture that aims to connect China with Asia and Europe through infrastructure like highways and ports.

The bilateral meeting came in the backdrop of Beijing, in July, for the first time, urging Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan to carry “four-party cooperation” in fighting the coronavirus pandemic and continue to build projects under the BRI including the CPEC.

In a television interview preceding the meeting, prime minister Imran Khan said: “It should be clear that our future is connected with China… China also needs Pakistan very much. China is our only friend which has remained politically steadfast with Pakistan during good and bad times.”

China is the largest foreign investor in Pakistan and accounted for $27 million of the $114.2 million, which entered into Pakistan’s economy in July 2020.

Qureshi, was earlier in news for his broadside at Saudi Arabia that led Imran Khan to depute Army chief Gen Qamar JavedBajwa to firefight in Riyadh.

Discussion Points

Qureshi went to China with a three-point plan in hand that included scaling up military cooperation between the two countries. The People’s Liberation Army and Pakistan army had, in August 2019, signed a pact in Rawalpindi for defence cooperation and capacity building of Pakistan Army. Islamabad is keen on establishing a joint military commission with China.

The Imran Khan government was also looking at discussions to expedite implementation of phase 2 of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC projects.

ALSO READ: PAKISTAN: Emerging Partnership Amongst Subjugated Sindhis, Balochis and Mohajirs

Pakistan wants China to help upgrade the infrastructure in Sindh, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and the Gilgit-Baltistan region..

Qureshi also sought some sort of transport corridor between Nepal and Pakistan for trade with Kathmandu. Nepal had last year signed nearly 20 infrastructure-building agreements with China during President Xi’s visit including an upgraded all-weather road connection that includes building tunnels through the Himalayas.

India figured prominently in the discussions, when Beijing and Islamabad’s ties with New Delhi were at an all-time low due to tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and the Kashmir issue.

Joint Statement

A joint statement was issued after the dialogue and soon after President Xi Jinping was quoted as saying that China and Pakistan are “good brothers” and “good partners”, and that the economic corridor between the two countries, which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), is key to forging even closer ties between Beijing and Islamabad.

China and Pakistan believe a “peaceful, stable, cooperative and prosperous South Asia was in common interest of all parties”, the statement said. It added: “Parties need to settle disputes and issues in the region through dialogue on the basis of equality and mutual respect.”

Both also agreed “to strengthen cooperation on the Afghan issue” and “appreciated the efforts made by the Afghan government and the Taliban to initiate the Intra-Afghan negotiations.” The press release said they encouraged parties in Afghanistan to “seize this historic opportunity and commence the Intra-Afghan Negotiations at the earliest leading to durable peace and stability in Afghanistan.”

Support Over Kashmir

The Kashmir issue figured in the second strategic dialogue. India objected to their joint statement’s reference to Kashmir.

China had told Pakistan it opposed any “unilateral” action that complicated the situation in Kashmir, after Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi briefed his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi of his country’s concerns regarding the situation in the Indian state.

 “The Chinese side reiterated that the Kashmir issue is a dispute left over from history between India and Pakistan, which is an objective fact, and that the dispute should be resolved peacefully and properly through the UN Charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements. China opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation,” it said.

China had issued a similar statement immediately after India scrapped Kashmir’s special status in August last year. Since then, it has sought to raise the Kashmir issue at the UN Security Council on Pakistan’s behalf several times, but without much success.

China’s comments on “unilateral actions” echoed Beijing’s multiple statements last year that hit out at India’s move to dilute Article 370 and end statehood for Jammu and Kashmir. China had also opposed the creation of the Ladakh union territory and said the move had “undermined China’s sovereignty” as it included Aksai Chin and areas claimed by China, although the internal reorganisation did not change India’s external boundaries.

They are likely to have discussed the tense standoff between India and China along their disputed border. Pakistan and China share a growing mutuality of interests against India. At Hainan, China described Pakistan as its “staunchest partner” and the two sides pledged to “collectively take measures to safeguard their common interests.” India cannot dismiss these words as effusive rhetoric that is routinely articulated at China-Pakistan meetings. It must prepare for greater coordination and cooperation between the two countries in any possible military action against India henceforth.

According to information available with New Delhi, China has already assured Islamabad full coordination and support over the Kashmir issue to Islamabad. The Imran Khan government wantED Beijing to go one step further and raise the Kashmir issue at the UN General Assembly session in September. Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad were the only ones to go that far.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The $74 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)infrastructure projects in Pakistan proposed under CPEC are central to China’s wider Belt and Road Initiative to develop land and sea trade routes in Asia and beyond.

In the recorded message addressed to his Pakistani counterpart ArifAlvi, Xi said the CPEC, “a landmark project” under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is of “great importance to promoting in-depth development of the China-Pakistan all-weather strategic cooperative partnership and forging a closer China-Pakistan community with a shared future”.

India has consistently opposed CPEC because it passes through PoK. CPEC is among the new irritants and concerns for India’s ties with China, but Beijing has refused to address this issue, arguing it is only an economic project.

In early August, Pakistan’s National Economic Council cleared a $6.8 billion project – its costliest CPEC project till date- to upgrade its railway lines for the Islamabad-Beijing link. The CPEC seeks to connect Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s Balochistan with China’s Xinjiang province.

China confirmed, on 21 August, as the two foreign ministers met, that it would push on with rail and power projects agreed with Pakistan in order to revitalise the state’s economy.

China Defends Pakistan Over Terror

China staunchly defended Pakistan’s record in fighting terrorism, on 11 September, saying its all-weather ally has made “tremendous efforts and sacrifices”, countering calls by India and the US that Islamabad must ensure that its territory is not used for terror activities.

This was after India and the US in a joint statement, after the 17th meeting of the India-US Counter Terrorism Joint Working Group and the third session of the India-US Designations Dialogue held on September 9-10, denounced the use of terrorist proxies and strongly condemned cross-border terrorism in all its forms.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that terrorism was a common challenge faced by all countries and Pakistan had made “tremendous efforts and sacrifices” in fighting terrorism.

Locals Up In Arms Against China & Pakistan’s Dam Plots

People in Muzaffarabad city of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), on 24 August, protested opposing construction of mega-dams by Chinese firms on Neelum-Jhelum river.

Over a thousand people from the city and other parts of PoK took out a torch rally and chanted slogans like ”Darya Bachao, Muzaffarabad Bachao” (Save River, Save Muzaffarabad) Committee” and “Neelum-Jhelum behne do, humeinzindarehne do” (let the Neelum and Jhelum rivers flow, let us live).

Pakistan and its ‘all-weather friend’ China have signed agreements to construct Azad Pattan and Kohala Hydropower Projects in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

Azad Pattan Hydel Power Project of 700.7 megawatts of electricity as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was signed on July 6, 2020. The $1.54 billion projects will be sponsored by the China Gezhouba Group Company (CGGC). The Kohala Hydroelectric Power Project which will be built on Jhelum River is roughly 7 km upstream of Azad Pattan Bridge in the Sudhanoti District of PoK and 90 km from Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan.

The project expected to be completed by the year 2026 will be sponsored by China Three Gorges Corporation, International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Silk Road Fund. Pakistan and China are jointly destroying the natural resources of PoK and Gilgit Baltistan in the wake of China Pakistan Economic Corridor. The discontent in the occupied territories is high against Pakistan and China.

The post Second China-Pakistan Strategic Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue appeared first on IMR.

China is now Pakistan’s only supplier of advanced armaments. With the United States cutting off Pakistan’s defence funding, China has swooped in with both weapons and tactics in an attempt to make sure the Imran Khan-led country continues to pose a security challenge to India.

Military Dependence on China

Pakistan’s military has not seen any major cuts to its budget. Pakistan, which is surviving on loans from its allies, former allies and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is largely run from Rawalpindi, the headquarters of its powerful military, and not from Islamabad.

China is now the chief supplier of weapons to Pakistan from 2015 to 2019 with 73 per cent of the latter’s arms supply coming from China.

In July, China agreed to supply four attack drones to Pakistan. In December 2019, they struck a deal to supply 236 howitzer guns. They signed a contract worth $512 million.

Another agreement was signed to overhaul Pakistan’s main battle tank. Reportedly, Pakistan may also get the Chinese JH-7 jets to boost air power.

ALSO READ: INDIA-PAKISTAN: China to Construct Dam on Indus River in POK

All other suppliers – have a single-digit share and Chinese military support is not just limited to arms.  The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is also training with Pakistan’s soldiers.

In January, the navies of China and Pakistan conducted a nine-day mega naval exercise called the ‘Sea Guardians 2020’. The drills were carried out in the northern Arabian sea.

A month before that, the warrior seven joint military drills were held in Pakistan. In August 2019, the air forces conducted the Shaheen eight military exercise in the Chinese city of Holton, which is close to the Indian border near Ladakh.

China and Pakistan are now sharing military intelligence, too. Recently, a Pakistani general was invited to attend a highly restricted meeting of the central military commission with an effort to enhance cooperation on Afghanistan.

China’s military support to Pakistan is expanding in all directions – from selling firepower to sharing intelligence – the dragon is building another defence force on India’s western border.

As Pakistan turns into a colony for China, the country’s army is being readied as a surrogate fighting force for Beijing.

Joint Military Commission

A future war between India against Pakistan and China could see greater co-ordination, even active participation of both countries, against India. China and Pakistan have been discussing, for years now, the setting up of a joint military commission (JMC) with a Sino-Indian military conflict a growing possibility.

‘Iron brothers’ China and Pakistan reportedly discussed the JMC between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi during the second Sino-Pakistan strategic dialogue at Hainan in China on 21 August. A mechanism that will pave way for greater operational coordination between their militaries, the JMC, should it materialise, will have great implications for India’s security. In the event of an armed conflict with Pakistan or China, India has always anticipated a two-front war, but hitherto in India-Pakistan wars, China has refrained from actively joining the fighting on Pakistan’s side although it did indulge in threatening military manoeuvres to pressure India and keep a part of its forces tied down along the Sino-Indian border.

Chinese Military Logistics Facilities

According to the US Pentagon’s annual report Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 2020, submitted to the US Congress on 2 September, China is seeking to set up more robust logistics facilities in about a dozen countries, including three in India’s neighbourhood, to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances.

In addition to the three neighbours of India – Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar – the other countries where China is considering to base its military logistics and infrastructure facilities are Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola and Tajikistan.

The Pentagon said, Beijing uses the One Belt One Road (OBOR) projects associated with pipelines and port construction in Pakistan intend to decrease China’s reliance on transporting energy resources through strategic choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca.

Equipping Terrorists

Pakistan’s long list of items includes 80,000 rounds of steel bullets. It is feared these will help arm jihadis and facilitate their intrusion. Steel bullets are potent enough to pierce through bulletproof jackets and have been used by terror groups against security forces in the last few years.

Many of the items on Pakistan’s shopping list are for equipping terrorists. The list includes surveillance platforms, winter clothing and equipment for high-altitude areas, artillery guns and combat armed drones. China wants to ensure that there is action at the Line of Control.

Pakistan has already procured 3,000-4,000 military combat ballistic bulletproof jackets from China. These are being supplied to the mujahideen battalions that assist terrorists of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba at Line of Control (LoC) in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Pakistan is also procuring balloon radars from China to be used at LoC. These helium-filled balloon looking airborne ground surveillance systems can go up to a height of 15,000 feet.

Intelligence reports also say Pakistan is procuring a medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Cai Hong-4 (CH-4) from China. It can carry a wide range of payloads. These UAVs might be used at the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir to create further unrest in India.

Can Pakistan Get F-35s or its Technology?

The F-35s are one of the most sought-after fighter jets in the world especially due to the stealth technology that it employs, speed and agility, fully fused sensor information, network-enabled operations and advanced sustainment.

The UAE has shown keen interest to acquire these fifth-generation stealth jets, however, Israel has objected to the possible sale despite the historical agreement between Israel and the UAE.

The United States earlier inked deals for its F-35 fighter jet with many key allies including the UK, Australia, and Japan but Israel is the only nation in the Middle-East to have it.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that his country would oppose any sale of weapons in the region which would threaten its military superiority in the Middle East.

The UAE has the most advanced military in the Arab world while Qatar and Saudi Arabia are aggressively catching up in terms of the capacity of their forces and their domestic defense industries – both areas where Pakistan plays a critical role.

Pakistanis have been known to provide training to Middle-East armed forces including the UAE and Saudi Arabia and thousands of their defense personnel have served and are presently serving in their uniforms.

Pakistani personnel also hold influential positions as advisers and trainers in the UAE Air Force (UAEAF). The UAEAF has even been termed by a prominent Pakistani author as an extension of the Pakistan Air Force. The first five Chiefs of Air Staff of the UAE Air Force were Pakistanis.  Even though UAE is one of the staunchest allies of India, the influence of Pakistani defense personnel in Gulf nations remains extremely high.

If the UAE gets F-35s, it could be Pakistani pilots who could be flying these stealth jets, and a lot of sensitive information can get passed to Pakistan and eventually to China. Thus Israel is, and should staunchly object to the sale of F-35s to the UAE.

List of Weapon Systems Pakistan is Buying From China

Army

Armour.

•             Manufacture of Al Khalid-1: Pakistan is manufacturing 110x Al Khalid-1 tanks (Phase-1) at Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) with Chinese assistance at the scale of 22 tanks/year.

•             Al-Khalid -Il: Pakistan was exploring procurement of 1500 HP diesel engine for its Al-Khalid-11 Tank from NORINCO, China.

•             Procurement of 12.7mm AA Gun: Machine Gun Factory (MGF), Pakistan was likely to procure 750 numbers of 12.7mm MMG (Anti-Ac Machine Gun) from Hong Kong Sky Wise, China.

•             T-85 Up-gradation: Asia Pacific Department of China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) has submitted the quotations for up-gradation and rebuild of 90 x T85-IIAP tanks to HIT Taxila.

 •            VT-4 Tanks: Pakistan Army plans to induct 360 x new MBTs. China’s VT-4 is in contention for this major contract and has participated for trials in 2015 & in Jul and Aug 2017.

Air Defence.

•             ESHORADS: Pakistan Army has purchased three ESHORAD FM-90 Air Defence system from the PLA package. The equipment were displayed on Pak Day Parade in 2017.

•             QW-18 SAMs: Pakistan has received 1391 x QW-18 SAM systems from China. 100 sets of QW-18 SAMs were provided by China out of PLA package.

•             LY-80 LOMADS: Pakistan Army has procured nine systems of LY-80 LOMADS from China. Pak Army had signed two separate contracts for supply of the AD Sys along with IBIS-150 radar. Delivery of all nine systems was completed in 2019.

•             HIMAD System: Pakistan has evinced interest in purchase of the FD-2000 HIMAD system from China out of PLA Package. China has conveyed that should the HIMAD system be provided under the PLA package then Pak will not be able to get anything else under the PLA package up to 2035.

•             FN-16 Missiles: ALIT, China has forwarded a technical proposal for supply of 1265 x FN-16 Man Portable AD Systems (MANPADS), 14 x Launching Mechanisms, 2 x Man Portable Missile Launchers, accessories, spares and tools, amounting to US$ 28,998,390.

UAV / UCAV.

•             Burraq UAV: Burraq UAV (armed/recce variants) are very similar to CH-3 UAVs of China and even Burg missile is very similar to AR-1 missiles fitted on CH-3 Armed UAVs and are likely to have been built with Chinese assistance.

•             CH-4/ CH-5 UCAV. Pak is negotiating with China for procurement of CH-4 & CH-5 UCAVs. Also discussing co-production of CH-5 Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle and subsequent joint R&D projects.

•             Wing Loong-1 (WL-1): China is making efforts to supply WL (Wing Loong) series of UAVs to Pak MI Directorate. Pak currently holds one WL-I UAV.

Artillery.

•             155/52 mm caliber Mounted Gun System (MGS): Pakistan Army is evaluating the Chinese Track Mounted Gun SH-15 gun. Pakistan has already procured 36 SH-1 MGS and is likely to procure 36 more MGS in the near future.

•             Re-lifing of A-100 MLRS: ALIT, China has forwarded technical proposal to GHQ Rawalpindi for re-lifing for 1st & 2nd battery of A-100 MLRS in Dec 2019 and Mar 2022.

Misc.

•             Z-10ME Helicopters. Pakistan Army had received 3 x Z-10 helicopters from China for trials/ use in counter-terrorist operations in FATA region.

NAVY

•             8xAir Independent Propulsion (AIP) Submarines: Pakistan had contracted 8 x Yuan Class AIP conventional submarines under Project S-26 from China in 2015 at an estimated cost of $ 4.8 billion. The first four submarines are being manufactured in China while the remaining four would be constructed at Karachi Shipyard under transfer of technology.

•             Construction of VLF Station: The construction of Pakistan Navy VLF station under Project-333 is under progress at Turbat by PTI, China since 2011.

•             Construction of Fast Attack Craft (Missile): Pakistan Navy has already procured 2 X FAC (M) from China between 2011-14 at an estimated cost of $43.5 million. Three of them were being manufactured at Karachi since April 2015 under transfer of technology.

•             F-22P Frigates: Pakistan Navy had procured 4 x Jiangwei-Il Class F-22 frigates from China between 2009-13. It is progressing construction of 4 x additional F-22 Frigates (Batch II) of the same class under transfer of technology.

•             FN-16 for Navy: Pak Navy plans to procure 100 X FN-16 SHORADS Surface to Air (SAM) missiles from ALIT, China at a cost of US $ 13.256 million.

•             Type 054A/P Frigates: China is boosting Pakistan’s naval muscle with four Type 054A/P guided missile frigates, said to be the most advanced weapons platforms China has ever supplied to another country.

Air Force

•             JF-17 Project: Block-1 construction (50 x aircraft) has been completed. Construction of Block-11 (50 x aircraft) is under progress since December 2013. The same will replace PAF Mirage and F-7P aircraft of PAF Block-Il.

•             Procurement of CM-400 AKG Missiles: Pakistanis was negotiations with CATIC China for purchase of 40 CM-400 AKG (20 of IR and 20 of Optical type, both with penetration warhead) air-to-ground missile.

•             ZOK-03 AWACS: Used ZDK-03 AWACS were under consideration.

•             Advanced J-10 Fighters: China will supply Pakistan with J-10 fighter jets that are comparable with advanced versions of the US F-16 fighter. Further antagonising India, Pakistan has also asked China for short-range PL-10 and long-range PL-15 air to air missiles.

Miscellaneous

IW Capability.

•             Cyber Information/ Cyber Security: Pakistan has been sought Chinese cooperation in the field of cyber information assurance and cyber security domain. It wants Chinese assistance in monitoring of internet and VOIP.

•             Information Security Laboratory (ISL): CETC-PRIVIS, China was facilitating Pak in building its all round capability in the domain of cyber warfare by the setting up of Information Security Lab (ISL) under the National Electronics Complex of Pakistan (NECOP).

Nuclear Cooperation.

•             China is assisting Pakistan in development of Tactical Nuclear Weapons based on Plutonium-based warheads.

•             Satellite Navigation: Chinese Satellite Navigation Office (CSNO) has agreed to establish BeiDou enabled Continuously Operating Radar Station (CORS) network in Pak

•             Acquisition of Remote Sensing Satellite: Pak had signed a MoU with China in 2011 on acquisition of a Remote Sensing Satellite (RSS).

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Farzana Shah is a Peshawar based journalist. This is an abridged extract of an article which was first published in the Pakistan Army Green Book 2020. The views expressed do not reflect the views of IMR

On August 5th, 2019 India unilaterally revoked Article 370 of its Constitution which promised autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, i.e., Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). This unlawful decision with its dire pending consequences has triggered an outrage, not only in the region but also at the global level. The entire state has been put under siege with total communication blackout, enforced by deploying thousands of fresh troops. Over 3000 political figures including former chief ministers of the state were arrested under so-called Public Safety Act (PSA).

India also divided the state into two; an act through which she changed the geography of the disputed land, hence practically ending the 1971 Simla Agreement. This agreement has remained a critical milestone for both Pakistan and India, as it was this agreement based upon which both countries established what the world later on recognized as Line of Control (LoC). Not only that, August 5th action also undermined the very foundation of Indian constitution, as Article 370 was obliterated without the essentially required consent of state government and that’s why this action was not a constitutional reform, but a blatant coup in total disregard to the pending UNSC resolutions /UN Charter.

Modi government with full backing from hardliner Hindu groups, abolished IOJK’s autonomous status under a fabricated security threat perception to conceal the real intent. Pak-US peace overtures in Afghanistan had made Delhi very nervous because of the simple fact that any settlement between the US and Taliban would have enabled Pakistan to move almost 200,000 of its troops or at least a large number of these to its eastern borders in Kashmir and elsewhere. Indian desperation to counter Pakistan and limit her growing role in Afghan peace process led to such an abrupt abrogation of special status of IOJK and this timing was no coincidence.

Media reports suggest the Indian intelligence agencies were desperately waiting for this opportunity to strike. Delhi had sensed that a possible deal managed by Pakistan for US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan could eventually renew US military assistance for Pakistan.

Reportedly, to scuttle Afghan peace deal and legitimize Indian stance over Kashmir, Indian spy agency RAW’s new chief Samant Goel called on Narendra Modi on July 5th, 2019 and apprised him of the plan to abolish the Article 370 for IOJK. Preparations for the move were already in place in Delhi as a number of high profile military and intelligence visits were made to IOJK including those by RAW’s chief Goel, Indian NSA Ajit Doval and Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat in the months preceding August 2019. On July 24, Doval also held a meeting with Indian military chiefs and heads of all three intelligence agencies including National Technical Research Organization (NTRO), in the same context.

Media also reported that India had flown Israeli Heron drones across the Pir Panjal range to rehearse controlling mob in case of protesteruption3; military aircrafts made a number of sorties flying relief supplies including food, water and medicines into the Valley for the Indian troops.

After Indian decision of obliteration of Article 370, LoC has become potential conflict with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang because of the simple fact that Delhi has changed the goalpost for future talks on Kashmir. According to Indian leadership, now talks will be on Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Post August 5th environment suggests that India with obliteration of Article 370 actually risked a high intensity insurgency in an already volatile state of IOJK; something India could not have done alone without external backing.

Pakistan’s Current National Security

Predicaments Developments in IOJK are neither random nor isolated as far as their impact on Pakistan’s national security is concerned. It is a dilemma imposed by our geography that Pakistan cannot stay isolated from regional developments. Even in some cases, extra regional developments also impact Pakistan’s security milieu; fast evolving situation in Middle East and ongoing trade war between US and China, are cases in point.

United Nations on April 21, 1948 adopted Kashmir resolution after India took the issue to the UN under article 35 of Chapter VI. Kashmir was declared disputed territory and call for a plebiscite was made as the said chapter outlines the means for a peaceful settlement of disputes. The shadowy annexation of IOJK by India and insistence upon

its fabricated history has resulted in 3 out of4 Indo-Pak wars. With current clampdown on basic human rights in IOJK, there is a clear and present danger of yet another round of conflict. LoC is already red hot; both countries are already exchanging artillery fire. Earlier, in February 2019,both sides deployed air power. India lost 2 fighter jets on 27/2 with one pilot becoming POW; who was immediately returned by Pakistan as a goodwill gesture.

India is desperate to get a role in the region, belittling what Pakistan has been doing for regional stability. This is critical for India to present Pakistan as a perpetrator of global terror, while fact is Pakistan has been the biggest victim of non-state actors’ actions within and without.

Two most important strategic goals of India are:

•             Bigger role, both in the region and world.

•             Solving Kashmir through UNSC resolutions, but after changing its demography to ensure a win. Solving Kashmir will pave the way for permanent UNSC seat; vital prerequisite for India to embark on Akhand Bahart agenda of RSS.

Indian threat has been intensified even more after August 5, 2019. Kashmir has dominated the security debate as it’s going to impact both internal and external security dynamics. How things will unfold in coming weeks and months, depends on how Pakistan formulates and executes its strategy on Kashmir.

Apart from the traditional foe in the east, the country has been fighting an endless war on the west, which despite clear gains, remains a perpetually bleeding front albeit with reduced fatalities.

Notwithstanding these obvious kinetic threats, Pakistan’s security landscape is inevitably affected by certain other factors as well, like peaceful rise of China and her ensuing trade war with the US, culmination of US’ longest war in history in Afghanistan and growing strategic competition around various parts of Asia including South China Sea, Indian Ocean, North Korea, and stand-off between US allies in Strait of Hurmuz against Iran. All these geopolitical development swill directly or indirectly impact Pakistan. Hence, it is likely to continue to be in the eye of global security storm due to its geography and may continue to suffer if not steered wisely.

Pakistan’s Significance to China

Chinese trillion-dollar Belt & Road Initiative(BRI) is pivotal for turning China into a world commercial empire. The region of Azad Jammu and Kashmir gains unprecedented importance in the wake of US-China emerging geopolitical competition worldwide. US wants to hit CPEC just like India for almost similar reasons; CPEC has in fact comprehensively demolished the US envisaged strategic encirclement of China in South China Sea, notwithstanding US quadrilateral alliance with Japan, Australia, and India. Idea was that CPEC brings global connectivity to China, so that Beijing can invest hundreds of billions of US dollars in its reserves to reignite the growth engine, which has slowed down during last 5-7 years (from10% annual to 6.5%). Beijing has plans to expand BRI to 70 countries and CPEC remains a critical part of this Chinese enterprise. Road to China’s strive for challenging American dominance passes through CPEC.

Apart from this economic dimension, the north eastern region of IOJK is attractive due to its close proximity to Russia, China and Pakistan. The Indian action in IOJK gives the US deep state an opportunity for furthering its own scheme of geopolitical maneuvering in Afghanistan, which is instrumental in containing Russia-China-Pakistanat the same time.

While US has remained stranded in Afghan quagmire, China’s BRI has been helping Beijing in positioning China to rise peacefully as a peace broker to the conflict zones like Afghanistan and Iraq in near future through trade compulsions. These very aspects substantiate the growing geostrategic prominence of Pakistan /Kashmir.

The changing geopolitics has forced Pakistan to adopt a more robust offensive maritime policy, apart from safeguarding its interests attached to land component of CPEC. Pakistan Navy has embarked on an ambitious project of acquiring eight submarines along with multiple advanced naval ships. All these may help restore some balance of power in South Asia /IOR.

China – India – Pakistan Paradigm

Recent, Sino-India skirmishes in Doklam went full circle in locking both the nuclear powers into a possible warlike situation. India has recently expressed her envisioned two front war strategy, which basically relies on the premise of preventing Chinese ingress across the LAC amid a high intensity short lived Indo-Pak conflict adopting Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). After initial denial, the top Indian military brass has not only publically acknowledged its presence, but has also hinted at considering unleashing CSD against Pakistan.

Indian aggressive attempts to outmaneuver Pakistan’s nuclear threshold forced it to adopt a full spectrum deterrence posture, while retaining/displaying the resolve to adopt policy of first use. Though it carries a great promise of strategic stability, but still there is a sizeable Indian defense intelligentsia that conceives this as a weakness in conventional balance of power, hence sees an opportunity of a limited, high-intensity conflict aimed at shallow gains across LoC/IB. This community of India is of the view that such gains will serve a devastating blow to Pakistan’s national morale. Indian strategy is to choke Pakistan economically, while raising cost of its deterrence by triggering an arms race.

Adding current volatile situation in IOJK into above discussed strategic contest between conventional Indo-Pak militaries and growing US-China wrestling for dominance, it would be safe to assume that the probability of an armed conflict in this region was never this high in last 72 years, as it is now.

Critical Appraisal of Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Let us begin with the most critical question, i.e., if all these preparations as highlighted in earlier part of this discourse were underway in India, why Pakistan remained oblivious to these developments about IOJK or was it caught totally unaware /surprised like rest of the World? A critical and candid appraisal is needed.

It would be safe to assume that Pakistan missed the opportunity to preempt and did very little or nothing before August 5th on diplomatic and media fronts to expose and pressurize India. Whatever and wherever it reacted, it did once unilateral annexation of IOJK by Modi had already occurred.

In the wake of Indian move over IOJK, Pakistan repeatedly reiterated its intention to undertake preventive measures to counter threats hurled by India. Such a move had always been seen by the US and her allies as jeopardizing War on Terror, a metrics which puts Pakistan at a crucial position with regard to peace in the region. The equation exhibits importance of Kashmir conflict and consequences of Indian attempt of redrawing map of erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir for the world peace and stability.

On international fora, India always presented Kashmir as a bilateral issue, supposed to be solved under Simla Agreement at bilateral level without any third party intervention. While on the bilateral level, Indian policy on Kashmir is immoveable as it always maintains that Kashmir is an integral part of Union, hence no bilateral dialogue is possible. On the contrary, India showed willingness to discuss Azad Jammu Kashmir and Northern Areas(parts of heretofore Kashmir state) of Pakistan for which nation gave blood in 1947-48 to liberate from the clutches of Dogra Raj; putting added pressure on our diplomacy.

Despite the fact that since 9/11 Pakistan’s security challenges have grown manifold, it has made abundantly clear that Pakistan cannot and will not remain oblivious from what goes on inside the Kashmir valley; any undertakings however, demand a comprehensive understanding of the total security paradigm. Pakistan will have to work pro actively and diplomatically support the indigenous KFM, else the state will be dragged into yet another regional conflict with India, giving her the advantage to choose time and place of her liking.

Notwithstanding initial surprise, post August 5th Pakistan’s political leadership has repeatedly and quite forcefully warned the World at large about the potential threat to global peace emerging from regional conflict in Kashmir in near future; it’s a nuclear flashpoint that has the latent potential to engulf the entire world.

Geo-Strategic Implications

Strategically speaking, the clash of interests among big powers alone makes Kashmir a bone of contention; contested directly by three nuclear powers (intrinsically linked are the strategic interests of two extra regional nuclear powers i.e. US, Russia).

Gilgit-Baltistan region has for centuries been the most vital part of Jammu and Kashmir. It is now a key part of CPEC, the cornerstone of China-Pakistan axis and the flagship project of China’s BRI for global trade domination; it aims at connecting South Asia with Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East /Africa; the shortest route from Arabian Sea ports of Karachi and Gwadar.

The growing competition in different fields(fanning economies and military insecurities) is forcing China and India to gain access to energy rich CARs. International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was envisioned by India as alternative to CPEC. This corridor connects CAR to Iran and to India through Arabian Sea. Obviously, the route is not only much costlier due to its length, but also tremendously insecure as it goes through Iran and Persian Gulf, regions far from stable for long term investments and economic activities. The only alternative short and direct route for India passes through Azad Kashmir and Pakistan’s northern areas. Sooner or later, India will make a move to extend its jurisdiction over this area; current overture in IOJK may have this latent desire imbedded in it.

Apart from economic and strategic dimensions, Kashmir issue has become a cultural and social question as well.

Modi is planning to change the religious demography of IOJK, through ethnic cleansing and Hindu settlements in disputed territory on the lines of Jewish settlements by Israel. This drive itself is being fueled by right-wing Hindutva gangs, who have taken over India and have completely distorted her secular face. Hindutva ideology, much like Hitler’s Nazism, believes in supremacy of their own faith and considers all minorities in India as impure and hence, must be culled from Indian soil.

Modi appealed to the Indian society to”embrace Kashmiris” on Independence Day. It was sensible from both the domestic and international perspectives. But the news coming out of IOJK and even from mainland India, indicates that Hindutva’s control over Indian society has put Indian minorities in grave danger. Lynching of Muslims and Kashmiri students even within Indian cities has become new normal. This explains why Modi was compelled to ensure a complete media clampdown in the IOJK. Apart from that, Modi is now faced with severe internal pressure to act against Pakistan on AJK.

Apropos, it is beyond any doubt that the current fascist regime in India has nefarious designs against Pakistan /Muslims. Ruling RSS/ VHP/BJP has built anti-Muslim/anti-Pakistan sentiment so hard in Indian mainstream media and public discourse that BJP will have to continue undertaking some sort of anti-Pak overtures every now and then, to stay in power; hence current misadventure should not be taken as last.

Possible Emerging Scenarios and their Impact on Pakistan’s National Security

It is evident from the analysis so far that an Indo-US-Israel nexus is at play against Pakistan at multiple levels to close the Kashmir chapter once and for all. Hence, it is now prudent to examine the possible outcomes of Indian political discourse vis-à-vis Pakistan (Table Opposite).

A critical appraisal of the above scenarios suggests that Pakistan will have to walk a very thin line to fight for the Kashmir cause. Biggest challenge is that Pakistan will have to take the initiative and yet not to be seen as an aggressor as per international law. Having tested Pakistan’s response in February 2019, India may not escalate the situation along LoC any further than routine ceasefire violations, without consolidating control over IOJK. India’s best bet in current scenario is to maintain status-quo with a complete information and media control on developments inside IOJK particularly in the valley. This is where Pakistan will have to respond along with aggressive, non-apologetic and bold diplomacy. Proactive Foreign Office (FO) will produce results. If Pakistan keeps waiting for Indian action to react; Islamabad will be playing a losing game from the very onset.

Policy Recommendations

So far, Pakistan has given a standard response to Indian action of August 5th. Prevailing security crisis however, demands a robust and out of box solution, and that too in quick time. International community at best, will not go beyond condemning India over human rights violations in IOJK. In order to do that Pakistan will have to take the war into non-kinetic domains:

•   Information / Cyber Warfare

•   Electronic Warfare (EW) Spectrum

Relevant establishments must provide support to diplomatic efforts being done by government through operations in these two domains with focused goal of extracting authentic information from stakeholders in IOJK most importantly from general public facing the brutalities of Indian oppressive forces. Once information gathered, FO must disseminate it with proper narrative of the state of Pakistan.

A single video clip or picture can change the perception of India, which it has built so painstakingly over the years. Pakistan needs to keep world attention on IOJK and in order to do that communication links inside the valley must be established. Indian decision of communication blackout in IOJK was not random, but part of the planning. Pakistan’s response in these two domains will be purely non-kinetic, denying any involvement of arms. If executed properly anda local uprising occurs inside IOJK, it will make it extremely difficult for India to keep selling the terrorism card on IOJK. Burhan Wani was a local hero, India could not blame his action on Pakistan. Only a native uprising will be just and politically defendable for Pakistan on international forums. Even such an uprising will need support in the information domain.

EW Spectrum would be critical as it will enable Pakistan to keep Indian preparation in check. There is a possibility that India creates a deception in IOJK and opens war across IB on a spot like Pakistan’s soft-belly (Rahim Yar Khan – Kashmore) to sever Karachi from rest of Pakistan. There are rumors suggesting similar planning going on in Indian military headquarters; Pakistan must take requisite safeguards.

Pakistan must also keep refining standard diplomatic response along with taking into consideration above mentioned suggestions. Few areas where improvement can be made are mentioned below:

•             Pakistan, according to UN charter, can openly help Kashmiris in their fight. Indian intervention in East Pakistan and recent Syrian conflict between Russia and the US are clear examples.

•             India may try to capture areas 5 to 7 km inside AJK to make claim on the area. Pakistan army must have own similar plans and be executed preemptively.

•             Question of Kashmir must be debated among legislators on regular basis so that policy can be kept proactive rather than calling session of parliament on special occasions. Kashmir’s importance as vital strategic national interest must be seen by whole nation. Kashmir demands and deserves more pragmatism than emotional outburst.

•             Pakistan’s foreign policy needs more consistency, more inclusiveness of security institutions and constant review of emerging developments around the world particularly in South Asia.

•             Kinetic intervention from Pakistan has proven counter-productive as far as larger goals of Kashmir’s freedom is concerned. It created problems locally as well. State must adopt transparent policy in this regard. Proscribed organizations must remain ineffective and immobile.

•             Pakistan must establish a dedicated and permanent desk at FO focused on human rights violation in India against minorities. These efforts must be driven not by shallow patriotism, but true humanitarian grounds. In this regard, contacts must be established with oppressed groups within Indian society. This desk must be tasked to constantly arranging seminars and programs for this single purpose. Kashmir Committee must work along with this desk.

•             Especial efforts must be put on proactive diplomacy on Kashmir in P-5 nations. Pakistan embassies must conduct seminars, conferences and round tables with local intellectuals about Indian oppression in the valley.

Conclusion

Indian government has gravely endangered the global peace by unilaterally changing the status of disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. Due to RSS/BJP actions in IOJK, future of 8 million Kashmiri Muslims is at stake with a probability of their systematic genocide or forced exodus from their native land. The subsequent strategic situation demanded an appraisal to assess the way forward for the state. This paper is an attempt in the same direction. It argued and examined various vertices of Kashmir’s geography, its linkage with national security and impacts of various policy options. Pakistan will have to act proactively. Standard diplomatic response will not be enough and a delay in decisive line of action will be suicidal.

Pakistan must ensure regional peace by adopting an aggressive and just policy on Kashmir, while also ensuring that state must not be seen as aggressor till the time an armed conflict with India becomes inevitable. Information and EW Spectrum domains must be explored for non-kinetic operations against Indian political and military leadership so that Pakistan can expose Indian atrocities and can achieve higher moral ground before any open conflict.

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