India-Central Asia Meeting of NSAs

At the first India-Central Asia meeting of NSAs/secretaries of security councils, involving Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, India’s National security adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, on 6 December, flagged concerns about terror networks in the region, including in Afghanistan, and called for firm steps against terror financing.

The one-day NSA-level meeting was held in the backdrop of the first summit in January 2022 between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and presidents of the five Central Asian countries.

“Afghanistan is an important issue concerning us all. The existence of terrorist networks in the region is also a matter of deep concern. Financing is the lifeblood of terrorism and countering terror financing should be an equal priority for all of us,” Doval said in his inaugural address.

“Central Asia is our extended neighbourhood with which we have civilisational linkages and we accord highest priority to this region. We meet at a time of great churn in international relations and uncertainty about the future. A peaceful, secure and prosperous Central Asia is in our common interest,” Doval said.

There was consensus among the six countries that the expansion of terrorist propaganda, recruitment and fundraising efforts had serious security implications for the region and, a collective and coordinated response was essential.

“The misuse of new and emerging technologies, arms and drug trafficking using terrorist proxies for cross-border terrorism, abuse of cyber space to spread disinformation and unmanned aerial systems present new challenges in counterterrorism efforts and call for collective action,” said a joint communique issued after the meeting.

Top officials of the six countries condemned all “forms and manifestations” of terrorism, and underscored the need to fight the menace collectively. They “discussed the current situation in Afghanistan and its impact on the security and stability of the region, reiterating strong support for a peaceful, stable and secure Afghanistan, emphasising respect for its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and urging non-interference in its internal affairs”, the communique said.

The heads of the delegations emphasised that Afghan soil should not be used for sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist acts while reaffirming the importance of UNSC Resolution 2593 that no terror outfit should be provided sanctuary or allowed to use that country’s territory. The meeting comes at a time when India and the Central Asian countries celebrating the 30th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic relations.

The next NSA-level meeting will be held in Kazakhstan in 2023.

Taliban welcome Initiative

A statement by the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” welcomed the move aimed at building better coordination for the security of the region. It also supported the joint communique issued expressing support for a stable, peaceful, integrated and secure Afghanistan. Afghanistan has reiterated its commitment to not allow its territory to be used for any agency or powers to interfere in other nation’s internal affairs.

US-India Counterterrorism Joint Working Group

Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism Timothy Betts, a top American counterterrorism official, visited New Delhi for the US-India Counterterrorism Joint Working Group’s annual meeting on 12-13 December 2022 that reviewed regional and global terrorist threat assessments, collaborative bilateral and regional counterterrorism programming, and initiatives to strengthen law enforcement and judicial partnerships.

“No Money for Terror” Conference 2022

The third ‘No Money for Terror’ (NMFT) Ministerial Conference on Counter-Terrorism Financing was held in New Delhi, on 19 November 2022.

The conference was started in 2018, as an initiative of the French government, to specifically focus on cooperation between countries to choke terror funding. In 2019, the conference was held in Australia. It was to be held in India in 2020 but was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The conference offered a unique platform for participating nations and organisations to deliberate on the effectiveness of the current international regime on Counter Terrorism Financing and the steps required to address emerging challenges.

It was attended by delegates from 72 countries and 15 international organisations. During the Conference, deliberations were held in four sessions with focus on:

• Global Trends in Terrorism and Terrorist Financing.
• Use of Formal and Informal Channels of Funds for Terrorism.
• Emerging Technologies and Terrorist Financing.
• International Co-operation to Address Challenges in Combating Terrorist Financing.

India’s Stand at NMFT Conference

The Prime Minister of India strongly asked for avoiding any ambiguity in dealing with terrorism and also warned against nations that use terrorism as a tool of foreign policy.

Regime Change in Afghanistan. India urged the international community to take cognisance of threats emerging from regime change in Afghanistan, as the last one had led to 9/11 attacks. The regime changes and the growing influence of Al Qaeda & Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have emerged as a significant challenge to regional security.

Stress on Terrorist’s Safe Havens. India stressed that the international community should never ignore terrorists’ safe havens or their resources.

Threats from Emerging Technologies. Terrorists and terrorist groups understand the nuances of modern weapons and information technology such as Dark Net and Cryptocurrency very well. This transformation of terrorism from dynamite to metaverse and AK-47 to virtual assets is definitely a matter of concern for the countries.

Cost of Terrorism Supportive Countries. Certain countries support terrorism as part of their foreign policy. They offer political, ideological and financial support to them. There must be a cost imposed upon countries that support terrorism. Organisations and individuals that try to create sympathy for terrorists must also be isolated.

Threats from Organised Crime. Organised crime should not be seen in isolation and these gangs often have deep links with terrorist outfits. The money made in gun-running, drugs and smuggling is pumped into terrorism. Even activities like money laundering and financial crimes have been known to help terror funding.

BIMSTEC Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism

A meeting of the BIMSTEC Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime started was held i New Delhi on 12 January. The meeting was hosted by India and featured participation from Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Key issues linked to intelligence sharing, legal and law enforcement, countering radicalisation, terrorism, etc, were discussed.

An MEA statement said the delegates deliberated on different aspects of implementation of the BIMSTEC Convention on Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organised Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking, which entered into force on March 16, 2021. India is the lead country for the security pillar under the BIMSTEC framework.

Under the security pillar, the mechanism of BIMSTEC joint working group on counter-terrorism and transnational crime oversees the work of six sub-groups which include:

• Intelligence Sharing
• Legal and Law Enforcement
• Countering Radicalization and Terrorism
• Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism
• Human Trafficking and
• Narcotic Drugs, Psychotropic Substances and Precursor Chemicals

“The meeting discussed traditional and emerging non-traditional security threats in the BIMSTEC region. The participants deliberated and made recommendations on wide ranging issues to enhance cooperation and collaboration in countering terrorism and transnational crimes in the region,” an MEA statement said.

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India said in a UN Security Council (UNSC) debate, on 25 January,  that member states are fully aware that Pakistan has a long history of harbouring, helping, and actively supporting terrorists during a UNSC debate on “Protection of civilians in armed conflict.” Underscoring the threat of terrorism to civilians, Counsellor in India’s Permanent Mission to the UN, R Madhu Sudan said that the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terror attack continue to have Pakistan’s support.

The Indian Counsellor made these remarks after a Pakistani diplomat misused the platform provided by the UN to “propagate false and malicious propaganda” against India. “This is not the first time that a Pakistani representative has used a UN platform to spread false and malicious propaganda against my country, attempting in vain to divert the world’s attention away from the sad state of his country where terrorists have free reign and the lives of ordinary people, particularly minorities, are turned upside down,” he said.

“This is a country that has been identified as a global terrorist sponsor and holds the world record for hosting the most terrorists sanctioned by the Security Council.” So much so that today’s terrorist attacks all around the world have their origins in Pakistan in some way or another,” he claimed.

Madhu Sudan reminded the Security Council that Pakistan’s prime minister and foreign minister had been chastised for aiding terrorists such as Osama Bin Laden, but they continue on their merry way.

“Today, we’re talking about civilian protection. Terrorists pose the greatest threat to civilians. As we previously stated, the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terror incident continue to enjoy the support of the state she represents,” he continued.

The Indian Counsellor reaffirmed that “the entire Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh were, are, and always will be an integral and inalienable part of India, irrespective of what Pakistan representation feels… We call upon Pakistan to promptly quit all regions under its unlawful occupation.

“Madhu Sudan stated that India wishes to have normal and friendly ties with all countries, including Pakistan, and that it is committed to amicably resolving any unresolved concerns, as per the Shimla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration.

“However, any genuine debate can only take place in a free of terror, animosity, and violence environment. Pakistan is responsible for creating such an environment. India would continue to take robust and decisive action until then.

On the issue of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Madhu Sudan reiterated that the entire J&K and Ladakh were, are and will always be an integral and inalienable part of India, irrespective of what Pakistan representative believes. “We call upon Pakistan to immediately vacate all areas under its illegal occupation,” the Indian Counsellor said. .

“However, any meaningful dialogue can only be held in an atmosphere free of terror, hostility and violence. The onus is on Pakistan to create such a conducive atmosphere. Till then, India will continue to take firm and decisive steps to respond to cross border terrorism,” he added.

No Common Definition of Terrorism

The United Nations member states have failed themselves by continuing to procrastinate on concluding a comprehensive convention against international terrorism, India has said, voicing concern that the global body has neither agreed on a common definition of terrorism nor crafted a well-coordinated policy to tackle the global scourge and dismantle its enabling networks.

Speaking in the UNGA meeting to consider the Report of Secretary-General on the work of the Organisation, Second Secretary in India’s Permanent Mission to the UN Dinesh Setia, on 24 January, said: “Our inability to seriously address terrorism, the most dangerous of scourges faced by states and societies since the World War II, casts doubt on the relevance of the organisation for the very people whom the Charter of the United Nations obliges us to protect”.

“The United Nations has yet to agree on a common definition, let alone craft a coherent well-coordinated policy to tackle terrorism and dismantle its enabling networks. We have failed ourselves by continuing to procrastinate on concluding a comprehensive convention against international terrorism,” he said.

India proposed a draft document on the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) at the UN in 1986 but it has not been implemented yet as there is no unanimity on the definition of terrorism among the member states.

The Indian diplomat further said that the effectiveness, relevance and longevity of any institution lie in its dynamic character and ability to adapt itself to the changing times.

“As long as the key organs of the organisation remain anchored in a governance structure frozen in the past, the crisis of legitimacy and performance will persist,” Setia said.

Lamenting that four decades have gone by since the inscription of the item on the reform of the Security Council on the agenda of the General Assembly, Setia called on member states to strive to ensure that this year is the one that finally delivers some concrete progress with regard to a Security Council and a United Nations that reflect the realities of the contemporary world.

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Since the fall of the Ghani Government in Afghanistan and the exit of the US forces from the war theatre, Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) has exploited this opportunity to attempt its dominance, monopolize Jihad in the Indian subcontinent and turn its low intensity asymmetric warfare into a virtual blitzkrieg approach in the region.

Over the years, IS-K has managed to build an intricate network amongst the locals in the regions where is operates. It has been seen effectively providing support to the Muslim Chinese jihadists and was lately employing Afghan soldiers, intelligence and law enforcement officers, as also the ex-Taliban recruits. Given that the outfit’s aspirations are not only limited to Afghanistan but also to additional plans which may not be aligned with its parent ISIS Central but its own, we have been witnessing an influx of recruits from India joining the IS-K in Afghanistan.

Recruitment Drive in India

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has probed over 37 terror attack cases directly linked with the IS, out of which 31 have been charge-sheeted with 27 accused convicted.

It is clear that IS targets individuals through social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. The individuals, whose ideologies resonate with the outfit, are contacted by the international handlers and are brainwashed into spreading and uploading IS-related content, knowledge on improvised explosives device (IED) making and terror funding. Even translating the IS-related texts to the regional languages is promoted.

In August 2021, an IS recruiter from Bhatkal (Karnataka) was arrested for radicalizing the youth through the ISIS published magazine “Voice of Hind (VOH)”. The magazine was conceived through the collaboration of Al-Qitaal media centre (pro ISIS media outlet) and Junudul Khilafa Al Hind in February 2020. It has, in the past months, elaborately detailed the plans on how to wage Gazwa-e-Hind (part of Pakistan`s plan to bleed India with a thousand cuts), preparations for Jihad and also praised IS terrorists killed as martyrs. Since 2020, the magazine has gained traction by stirring fear or working as a call centre to tap educated and qualified individuals for its propaganda machine.

Earlier, in July 2021, three individuals were arrested from Anantnag, who had close links with the IS. They were responsible for dissemination of false propaganda against India and for radicalizing the youth in Kashmir on the lines propagated by VOH. A large number of digital devices were seized such as mobile phones, secure digital (SD) cards, etc. Fake identities were created and the individuals responsible used several virtual private networks (VPN) to avoid tracking.

Then, in August 2021, VOH edition displayed the newsclips of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) searches, while its editor made a defiant proclamation to increase the circulation “all the more” in the face of probes carried by all investigation agencies. It became evident when the Voice of Hind mentioned the raids in Anantnag, Jammu & Kashmir, that the right targets had been hit. Prior to this, it was assumed that the magazine was circulated from Afghanistan. After the raids it has been confirmed that it has its links in South Kashmir. It is also confirmed the content editors were being recruited from Maldives and Bangladesh.

Content Collation

it is confirmed that the material is “processed, edited and approved in Pakistan.” Region specific content lacing subnational ideologies imbibing Jihad are also part of the propaganda, a philosophy IS-K uses to participate in the local conflicts and to radicalize one actor against the other, if not the whole state. In order to promote the propaganda, area specific content and material is also being made available in Tamil, Bengali and Malayalam.

Campaign Against Idolatry

The IS propaganda thrives on the success of increased sub-nationalism in the Southern States in India and caters to the likes of all those in favour of the caliphate and an all-Muslim state, marginalizing all Hindus. In a recent issue published by VOH, an image of a decapitated Shiva with the ISIS black flag on its cover went viral in the social media. The VOH captioned it as “It is time to break the false Gods.”

The idol on the cover resembles the idol of Shiva statue in the Murudeshwara temple in Karnataka and has raised concerns. ISIS has been notorious for attacking and destroying various archaeological and heritage sites. The idea to erase history or existence of a culture has been a part of their jihadist plans or of what they view as their narrative of Jihad. For years, ISIS has made efforts to go through extreme selective theological lengths to define their narrative on iconoclastism (destruction of idols).

This could be discerned from one such narrative it spread after destruction of the Palmyra features in Syria. The ISIS magazine Dabiq carried a double spread of the images of the destroyed Palmyra site, while its French edition, Dar-al-Islam, quoted the text “Baal is a false divinity for which people sacrificed their children as indicated in the Old Testament. But, by the Grace of Allah, soldiers of the Caliphate destroyed it.” The entire act of destruction of the heritage sites was justified as combating “shirk” – the sin committed by practicing polytheism or worshipping idols other than Allah. ISIS views its approach as cleansing of Islam through the establishment of the caliphate, while returning to the roots of Islam (a view which is contested worldwide by the Muslim community). However, it does not eliminate the threat and the “built in brutality” it inflicts towards the non-Muslims. The recent attacks on the mosques in Kandahar, Kabul and Kunduz are a clear indication of the extremist attitude ISIS is maintaining towards its narratives, where it refuses to even identify with the beliefs of Shias or Muslims, who remain different from them. It prefers to eradicate them.

Given the pictures of decapitated Shiva statue have gone viral on social media platforms, this comes as no surprise but as confirms the ISIS aspirations in India. It is imperative to exercise caution in face of this looming and persistent threat. It is expected that IS-K, like its parent IS Central, will replicate a common strategy to wipe out other religious iconography and heritage sites. This can exacerbate communal tensions in India.

Hate-filled Newsletters

In December 2021, VOH has upped its antics and has published another inflammatory hate-filled propaganda in its Vol 23 issue – Hinduism, In the Mire of Delusion. The issue attacks Hinduism as the nullifier of Islam, calls to take back Babri Masjid, makes suggestions to kill and terrorize Hindus calling it the verdict of Allah “Jihad for the sake of Allah.”

The 15-page newsletter reiterates its hate for Hindus and killing of all Kuffars worldwide. An excerpt from the magazine reads “on the mainland of India, the sons of Ghaznavi and Ibn Qasim, who subjugated the subcontinent to the rule of Islam. Whose swords chopped the heads of the Somnaths, the idols in the temples trembled and fell face down at the sound of their footsteps.”

The issue furthers urges its readers to carry Dawah activities on social media as “internet is cheap,” to raise the flags of jihad on streets, spread the word by uploading through USBs and use necessary security means to remain untraceable online.

Amidst these nefarious suggestions, an entire page is dedicated to “O Muwahhid take back Babri Masjid from the Hindus.” The entire section directly attacks the Jews and the Hindus, stating the “unholy alliance” between the Jews and the Hindus must be attacked. It talks of genocide and brute force to be utilized against the non-Muslims. While the entire section uses derogatory slander for non-Muslims, it provokes its readers to fight against the sons of “Khilafah” by painting a sorry picture of the jihadists, a bait easily to be bitten by the ISIS sympathizers.

It is not hard to foresee a radicalized youth playing into the hands of such inflammatory narratives, which not only spread hate but dispels the notion of secularism or diversity of India and seeks to ignite communal hatred and riots.

George Orwell said “The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history”. Hence, it is not farfetched to think the ISIS modus operandi relies heavily on its propaganda warfare while executing its plans physically. While conventional war may or may not be on the horizon, the war of perception continues to be waged daily. The proof lies in the virulent content of this IS propaganda organ, VOH.

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Handwara Operation

In the Army’s best traditions, Colonel Ashutosh Sharma, a decorated commanding officer of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion, along with company commander Maj Anuj Sood, two other soldiers and a policeman laid down their lives in a fierce encounter with terrorists at Chanjimulla area of Handwara in north Kashmir’s Kupwara district on 2 May.

Two terrorists were killed in the encounter, one of whom was identified as top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander Haidar alias Iqbal, a resident of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. They were part of a large group of Pakistani infiltrators who had sneaked into Kashmir through the Wadarbala-Rajwara forests in Kupwara in April. Col Sharma and his team reached the site after receiving reports that civilians were being held hostage in a house by terrorists. The Army officers were leading a team to rescue civilians who had been taken hostage by the terrorists.

Kishtwar Encounter

In a gunfight in Kishtwar district, on 17 April, two militants were slain. They had killed a Special Police Officer and injured another near Dacchan a week earlier, before decamping with their weapons. The weapons were recovered after the encounter near Sounder village.

In another encounter at Dairoo village in South Kashmir’s Shopian the same day two militans killed. 

Keran Gunfight

The Army suffered its biggest casualties in a day since the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammau & Kashmir (J&K), on 5 April. It was foiling an infiltration bid at a high-altitude pass on the Line of Control (LoC) at Shalbatoo, in the Jumgund area of the Keran sector in Kupwara in north Kashmir, in tough terrain and bad weather.

Five members of the elite para unit – 4 Para – and five militants were killed in the fierce hand-to-hand combat and gunfight in the snowbound Ringdori forest area of Keran, 120 km from Srinagar. The unit took part in the 2016 cross-LoC surgical strikes in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The special forces troopers, who had been air dropped near the LoC after information on the infiltrators was received, were found just six feet away from the terrorists, who they eliminated in an intense battle when the search party found them . They had infiltrated across the LoC from Qasim-II post in PoK and were headed to the Gulab Post on the Indian side.

At least three of the five terrorists gunned down on April 5 in the Keran sector belonged to Jammu & Kashmir and had gone across the border to Pakistan for training in 2018. Five AK-47 rifles, grenades, and GPS and wireless sets were recovered from the encounter site.

Kulgam Gunfight

A day earlier, on 4 April, four terrorists of Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) responsible for killing several civilians were shot dead by security forces in a shootout in Kulgam district of Jammu & Kashmir. Two soldiers of the Indian Army were also injured in the encounter, which took place in Hardmand Guri village of Kulgam. The house in which the terrorists were held up was demolished.

Army’s Response

The army responded to the unprovoked ceasefire violation and the killing of Special Forces commandos, on 10 April, by targeting Pakistani positions across the LoC in the Keran sector with artillery guns and caused severe damage to posts, terror launch pads and an ammunition dump in PoK.

A 48-second video clip released showed heavy and precision artillery blasting some positions, including an ammunition dump that was seen exploding in a huge ball of fire. It was a message to Pakistan that nothing goes unpunished.

The assault on terror launch pads at Dudhnial facing the Keran sector killed eight terrorists and 15 Pakistan Army soldiers. There was an effort to camouflage the extent of the casualties on the Pakistani side.

It was from Dudhnial that the five terrorists neutralised by the Indian Army special forces in the Keran sector on April 5 had been launched.

The Indian Army had no option since credible information suggested that nearly 160 terrorists of mixed tanzeems – LeT, Jaish e Mohammed and HuM – were waiting in the area to infiltrate into Kashmir.

At least one terror launch pad, among other targets, was apparently “completely destroyed” in the firing by the Indian Army, which used 105mm field guns as well as 155mm Bofors howitzers.

Defence minister Rajnath Singh, on 19 April, said the Indian Army was carrying out “targeted strikes” on terror launch pads along the LoC in Jammu & Kashmir and eliminating the Pakistani infiltrators before they crossed over to the Indian side.

“As you would have gathered from the operations along the LoC in the last two weeks, we are dominating the enemy through targeted intelligence based strikes on their launch pads and eliminating them before they set foot on Indian soil,” Singh said.

Comments

Dispite the coronavirus (Covid-19) panedemic spreading in Pakistan, there has been a spike in incidents across the LoC suggested that the operations to foment trouble in Kashmir – by first radicalising locals in Valley; then getting them to cross over for weapons training with terror groups such as the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed and HM; and then sending them back to wage war in India. There were attempts to smuggle assault rifles across LoC to supply to foreign and local terrorists in the Valley. Other moves which include propping up smaller indigenous armed groups, were linked with retaliation against India for the August 2019 nullification of Article 370.

Pakistan often resorts to ceasefire violations to push militants into the Indian side. Indian troops have also been retaliating to Pakistani actions under its policy of hot pursuit.

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The volatile 778-km long Line of Control (LoC), recorded over 1,547 times until 3 May from January – nearly half of the entire year’s figure in 2019 at 3,168.

The highest number of violations (411) were recorded in March 2020 when Covid-19 cases started peaking globally.

There were 3,479 CFVs and firings across the LoC and the 198-km international border (IB) in J&K in 2019, smashing all annual records since 2003.

The upward trend in CFVs has continued since the government revoked the special status of J&K on 5 August 2019 and then split the state into two union territories. Though there was a general decline in terrorist violence in the hinterland, with the snow in the mountain passes melting, there has also been a spike in infiltration attempts.

In April 2020, as many as 28 terrorists were killed in J&K – the highest since August 2019. 64 terrorists were killed in Kashmir and along the LoC in 2020 so far. In 2019, 152 terrorists were killed in J&K as against 215 in 2018, official figures stated.

Islamabad also blamed the Indian Army of 708 ceasefire violations in 2020, that it said killed two civilians and injured another 42.

Recruitment Up

The bigger cause of worry was that at least 35 local youths had joined terror groups in the first four months of this year, according to official figures of the armed forces. The local recruitment in 2019 was 119 – much less than 219 in 2018.

The Indian security forces have gone on the offensive, keeping the approaching summer in mind when infiltration attempts increase along the LoC and terrorists in the Valley become very active.

Casualties

Since 21 March, at least 33 militants and two of their associates have been killed in 15 gunfights across the Valley. Most of these encounters took place in four districts of south Kashmir – Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag, which are considered the hotbed of militancy.

Twenty security personnel lost their lives in this period. Eighteen were killed in gunfights and in attacks by militants, and two army men died on the LoC in CFVs by Pakistan.

Terror Factories in Pakistan

Terror factories in Pakistan are continuing training modules and launch pads along the border from where the final push is made to cross over are also active. The encounter in the Keran sector, on 5 April, in which five special forces soldiers died while taking down a group of infiltrating terrorists-also showed a clear Pakistan hand, with recoveries of food packets and other supplies that had evident markings.

Army chief, Gen MM Naravane also accused Pakistan, on 17 April, of backing terrorism in the region at a time when the world was united to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. “While the whole world is focused towards fighting Covid-19, Pakistan-instigated terrorists have been targeting innocent civilians in the hinterland; just three days back they targeted a retired Kashmiri soldier. Therefore, we cannot let our guard down,” Naravane said.

Intelligence Assessment

Intelligence agencies had earlier pointed to terror launch pads that had been activated in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s (POK) Dudhnial, Sharda and Athmuqam across the Keran sector on this side of the Line of Control.

The encounters which happened during March to April point towards Pakistan-backed terrorist groups focusing on north Kashmir. It was a renewed attempt by Pakistan to give Kashmir terrorism a local face. According to an assessment presented to national security planners in late April, the ISI had messaged the 100-odd foreign terrorists to lie low and let the local terrorists front the battle with security forces.

The assessment was that foreign terrorists would be consolidating logistics, expanding the overground workers facilitation network and concentrating on recruitment of Kashmiri youth. Foreign terrorists had also stepped up efforts to radicalise the youth in the Doda-Kishtwar-Ramban range to prepare them for recruitment.

The intelligence brief had also predicted a spike in terror activities and attacks from April, after the starting of Ramzan.

NSA’s Review

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval carried out a complete operational review of the security situation in Jammu & Kashmir on 9 May. The review meeting was attended by Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane, Intelligence Bureau director Arvinda Kumar, Research and Analysis Wing chief Samant Kumar Goel, Border Security Force director general SS Deswal, Central Reserve Police Force chief AK Maheshwari. Northern Army Commander Lt Gen YK Joshi, and general officer commanding of the army’s Srinagar-headquartered 15 corps Lt Gen BS Raju and the Nagrota-based 16 corps commander Lt Gen Harsha Gupta and Jammu and Kashmir police chief Dilbag Singh had also attended the high-level review at New Delhi.

The meeting noted Pakistan government’s renewed push from terror launch pads, the rise in infiltration and how Pakistan was funding newly-created outfits such as The Resistance Front or the J&K Pir Panjal Peace Forum to claim that terrorism in the Kashmir valley was indigenous and not sponsored by Pakistan.

Placing the Pakistan Air Force on high alert was assessed as an effort to further Imran Khan’s narrative that asks the international community to intervene lest there is a confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Comments

The security grid has increased surveillance in the four districts of south Kashmir, while also keeping a close watch on the LoC. The months of April and May saw a pattern of encounters going up every year, when the snow starts melting on the upper reaches of the Himalayas and militants start infiltrating from POK into Kashmir.

With modern surveillance gadgets, security forces are registering big successes in tracking and zeroing in on militants. Once a militant is caught on radar, he is tracked through electronic surveillance, and the success is remarkable. Also, human intelligence inputs help the forces to coordinate operations in the better way. Intelligence gathering has also seen a marked improvement.

A section of security officials and experts believes CFVs by Pakistan are a desperate attempt to foment unrest in India.

In the security grid, many consider these CFVs an attempt to give a cover fire to help militants crossing over to India.

Pakistan’s strategy of pushing terrorists across the border continues unabated. It’s likely that Pakistan is actually trying to take advantage of the Covid-19 outbreak and hit India with terror strikes when the latter is trying to control the epidemic. Plus, the nullification of special status of J&K by New Delhi last year did not lead to the kind of unrest that Islamabad had expected.

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Although banned by the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, you may now add Biological Warfare to hybrid warfare, in no uncertain terms. Hence the new doctrine is ­– Bio Attack, Cyber Attack, Kinetic Attack.

Biological warfare – also known as germ warfare-is the use of biological toxins or infectious agents such as bacteria, viruses, insects, and fungi with the intent to kill or incapacitate humans, animals or plants as an act of war. Biological weapons are living organisms or replicating entities.

Cyberwarfare is the use of technology to attack a nation, causing comparable harm to actual warfare. There is significant debate among experts regarding the definition of cyberwarfare, and even if such a thing exists.

A trade war is an economic conflict resulting from extreme protectionism in which states raise or create tariffs or other trade barriers against each other in response to trade barriers created by the other party. Increased protection causes both nations’ output compositions to move towards their autarky position.

Including biological weapons in the hybrid war arsenal will upset all equations related to building military capabilities, defence spending, force structures, space warfare, offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, force protection, conventional and counter-terrorism operations and so on.

Bill Gates’ Prophecy

Bill Gates, talking about new forms of war and threats, in his TedTalks on 3 April 2015, explained that the disaster he worried about most was a nuclear war. “Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe is not nuclear weapons instead it is Bio-War or Bio-Terrorism in the form of virus. If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war, not missiles, but microbes. We have invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents and invested little in a system to stop epidemic”.

The current Covid-19 pandemic has exposed how ill-prepared the nations are to deal with a virus attack. New strategies call for having epidemiologist, medical teams, volunteers, treatment approaches, health workers, good response systems, drugs and vaccines fit for various virulent pathogen, advanced research & development and to allocate a moderate budgets.

Cause and Effect

It was found that coronavirus genome variations in Iran and Italy were sequenced and it was revealed they did not belong to the variety that infected Wuhan.

Irrespective of its origin, which is still not conclusively established, as much as Trump tweets about the “Chinese virus,” COVID-19 already poses immensely serious questions about biopolitics and bio-terror.

The working hypothesis of coronavirus as a very powerful but not Armageddon-provoking bio-weapon unveils it as a perfect vehicle for widespread social control – on a global scale.

Novel virus attacks can kill millions. They can cause disruptions in global oil and stock markets, trade, business, tourism and manufacturing industries. International airlines suspended their flight operations due to their ‘concerns’ about the virus spreading globally. Affected countries started pulling out their citizens from China and other badly affected countries. Borders were closed. Global supply chain and exports were affected.

The world economy is in danger of plunging into recession. Bloomberg estimates $ 2.7 trillion loss to global economy due to the Covid-19 pandemic. IMF and World Bank suspended loan recovery from eight countries.

Covering the Tracks

To avoid blame and responsibility over the coronavirus outbreak, China re-positioned itself. Beijing openly regards the U.S. as a threat, as stated on 15 February, by Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference, said, “The root cause of all these problems and issues is that the U.S. does not want to see rapid development and rejuvenation of China, still less would they want to accept the success of a socialist country, but that is not fair, China has the right to develop,” Wang said during a discussion at the Munich Security Conference.

Wang’s comments at the Munich Security Conference followed those of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, both delivering back-to-back speeches accusing China of malignant activities.

Beijing carefully, incrementally shaped the narrative that, from the beginning of the coronavirus attack, the leadership knew it was under a hybrid war attack. President Xi Jinping said, on the record, that it was war. And, as a counter-attack, a “people’s war” had to be launched.

In a bid to parry accusations, Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, voiced in an incandescent tweet the possibility that “it might be US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.” The gloves were finally off. Zhao Lijian made a direct connection with the Military Games in Wuhan in October 2019, which included a delegation of 300 U.S. military.

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