At a time when US President Joe Biden’s words put the spotlight on Pakistan as “the most dangerous nation in the world”, Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities are also occupying a position of significance and creating anxieties for various major global powers.

US President Biden at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Reception in Los Angeles (California), during which he berated both China and Russia said, “This is a guy (Xi Jinping) who understands what he wants but has an enormous, enormous array of problems. How do we handle that? How do we handle that relative to what’s going on in Russia? And what I think is maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world: Pakistan. Nuclear weapons without any cohesion.”

Pakistan’s government, the Taliban, its various outfits in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and other jihadist groups inside Pakistan have created a worry over the nuclear weaponry falling into terrorist hands, reported Global Strat View.

Pakistan supports the Taliban covertly. The world believes that Pakistan’s nuclear program remains a threat of being stolen by terrorist organizations. Last year in August, after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghan soil, Afghanistan has quickly fallen into the Taliban’s extremist clutches.

The political upheaval in Afghanistan also has regional repercussions, especially for those in neighbouring Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s continued production of fissile material and subsequent weapons, as well as the potential deployment of more tactical nuclear weapons, only makes the increasing possibility of the misuse of these materials more glaring and plausible, reported Global Strat View.

A London-based Pakistjournalist Farooq Sulehria said, “The Talibanization of the Pakistan military is something we can’t overlook. What if there is an internal Taliban takeover of the nuclear assets?”

There has been multiple instance when experts and US Presidents have expressed their concerns over Pakistan’s nukes. During the time of the Obama administration, a Harvard nuclear expert, Graham Allison, stated, “When you map weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, all roads intersect in Pakistan.”

He said this while sitting on the US Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism.

Moreover, ex-US President Bill Clinton also had similar apprehension regarding Pakistan’s strides towards nuclear testing. Clinton, worried about the geopolitical threat of South Asia if Islamabad was to go ahead with its nuclear armament.

Clinton made all sorts of offers within his ambit. Whether it was a state dinner to billions of dollars in assistance to the country, Clinton tried to persuade the then-Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to put off the nuclear testing.

However, once Clinton was unable to succeed in getting his way, he publicly condemned Islamabad’s move. Clinton described the nuke tests “dangerously destabilizing.” Pakistan went ahead with its testing, and the US imposed crippling economic sanctions in retaliation.

Along the same lines, Generals Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, along with their high-ranking generals, claimed their awareness of the risks the Afghanistan move would pose for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and its national security.

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The Deesa air base will be the fire wall between enemy aircraft taking off from Mirpur Khas, Hyderabad, Shahbaz F-16 airbase in Jacobabad in Pakistan with Gujarat’s more than a trillion dollar industrial complex in and around Ahmedabad, Bhavnagar and Vadodara as target to economically hit India in the worst-case scenario.

Indian Air Force fighter taking off from Phalodi air base in Rajasthan. Deesa air base will plug the air defence gap between Bhuj and Phalodi air bases.

Although the land for Deesa airbase was allotted an in-principle approval given to Indian Air Force (IAF) by the Vajpayee government way back in 2000, the project was put on a back burner by the UPA government for the next 14 years. Although the project was revived when Narendra Modi took over as PM, it was the 2017 massive floods in Banaskantha that really kick-started the project.

When PM Modi and then Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman asked IAF to provide flood relief, the Air Headquarters then headed by Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa found it very difficult to provide a relief air bridge to the affected area due to bad weather and no nearby airfield as Deesa was still lying-in files. It was then Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman who got the airbase approved by the government along with the ?1,000 crore funding.

It is quite evident that with PM Modi getting the funds released for the airbase construction through now Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the IAF will have a new forward base in the next two years with air defence fighter aircraft in position.

While PM Modi said the Deesa airbase will provide faster offensive capability to the IAF in this sector, the new airfield will also plug a crucial tactical gap between forward air bases at Naliya, Bhuj in Gujarat, and Phalodi in Rajasthan.

The Deesa air base will be the fire wall between enemy aircraft taking off from Mirpur Khas, Hyderabad, Shahbaz F-16 airbase in Jacobabad in Pakistan with Gujarat’s more than a trillion dollar industrial complex in and around Ahmedabad, Bhavnagar and Vadodara as target to economically hit India in the worst-case scenario. Deesa will also make Pakistani cities of Hyderabad, Karachi, and Sukkur vulnerable with its deep penetration strike aircraft.

Since Deesa is a forward airbase, the IAF has no intentions to deploy its frontline Rafale or Su-30 MKI fighters on this airfield. Instead, it will station air defence fighters like MiG-29 and Tejas so that enemy fighters are intercepted and their ability to target Gujarat’s industrial complex gets neutered.

The airbase can also be used to retaliate against Pakistan in case of a major terror strike in Gujarat or along the south-western sector apart from giving support to any land offensive in future.

With Deesa airbase expected to be operational in the next two years in 2024, the Pakistan air force is also expected to ramp up its air assets in the sector as Indian fighters can cross over the international border in mere two minutes at Mach 2.0 speed if the red flag goes up.

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“In continuous pursuit of achieving self-reliance in defence manufacturing under ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ and in sync with the announcement made in the Union Budget 2022-23 that allocated 25 per cent of the defence R&D budget for industry-led R&D, 18 major platforms have been identified and announced by the MoD for industry led D&D,” stated the MoD in a written response to a Parliamentary question.

Under Make-1 procedure of the Defence Acquisition Procedure of 2021, 14 items are listed as follows:

•             Hypersonic glide vehicles

•             Anti-jamming systems for varied platforms

•             Directed Energy Weapons (>300 KW)

•             Light-weight tank

•             Self-healing minefields

•             Unmanned autonomous AI-based land robot

•             127 mm naval gun

•             127 mm guided projectile

•             Autonomous AI-based land robot

•             Standoff air-borne jammer

•             Lithium-ion/ Lithium-sulphur cells

•             Communication systems: AFNET switches, routers, encryptors & VOIP phones

•             Electro-optical pod with high-res sensing

•             Plug and Play’ housing/ infrastructure for soldiers posted at extreme altitudes

Under Make-2 procedure, only Anti-jamming systems for varied platforms is listed.

Under Special Purpose Vehicle, Long-range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and Indian multi-role helicopter (IMRH) are listed.

Under iDEX scheme, single item – Low-orbit pseudo-satellites – is listed.

Starting from August 2020, the MoD has issued three lists of defence equipment, the import of which is embargoed. The August 2020 list incrementally bans the import of 101 items, with the embargo growing wider each year.

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According to South Block officials, this collaboration will be tested in the development and manufacture of Indian Multi-Role Helicopter (IMRH), which will ultimately replace all Russian built Mi-17 and Mi-8 helicopters in the Indian military’s present inventory. The IMRH will have a 13 tons take-off weight and will perform with the Indian armed forces in air assault, air attack, anti-submarine, anti-ship, military transport and VVIP roles.

It is understood that Indian private sector companies have already shown their eagerness to participate in the project with the Defence Ministry telling them to start manufacturing in the next seven years. The French Safran has already signed an MoU with Indian HAL on July 8, 2022, to form a new joint venture company to develop, produce and support the IMRH engine including the naval variant.

According to officials, the private sector companies will also be allowed to export 25 per cent of their production to third countries and generate foreign exchange for the country. The Indian Armed Forces has been told to purchase the developed IMRH which is stipulated to roll out in next seven years. The private sector companies have also sought an assurance from the Defence Ministry that the Indian armed forces should purchase the helicopter if the product is manufactured in the next five years by advancing timelines and saving money and man-hours.

The decision to allow the private sector to acquire 51 per cent stake and form a joint venture with Indian PSUs was taken as the latter were not being able to deliver in required time leading to cost overruns. This delay was leaving the Modi government with no options but to purchase the much-required machines via the tender or government-to-government route from other countries.

While the IMRH is expected to roll out in the coming five to seven years, the Indian Navy is expected to get its first anti-submarine warfare Sirkorsky MH 60R Seahawk helicopters delivered in India by the end of this year. Although the first two to three helicopters have already been handed over to the Indian Navy for training purposes by San Diego Naval Station in the US, the remaining deliveries of 21 helicopters will begin soon as per the USD 2.3 billion February 2020 deal signed by both the governments.

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“HAL has successfully developed the basic trainer aircraft (HTT-40) to address the training requirements of IAF. There is a potential requirement of 70 aircraft. The contract with IAF for the same is in an advanced stage of approval,” chairman R Madhavan said.

The central government has imposed a phased ban on the import of 310 different types of weapons and systems to boost self-reliance in the defence manufacturing sector, and basic trainers feature on that list.

Rookie pilots in the IAF go through a three-stage training process involving the Pilatus PC-7 MkII basic trainers, Surya Kiran trainers and finally the British-origin Hawk advanced jet trainers before they can fly fighter jets.

In August 2020, the defence ministry gave a go-ahead for the purchase of indigenous basic trainer aircraft for IAF to provide a push to the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (self-reliant India) vision.

The defence acquisition council (DAC) accorded its acceptance of necessity (AoN) to buy 106 HTT-40 aircraft from HAL. Under India’s defence procurement rules, an AoN by the council is the first step towards buying military hardware. The IAF plans to order the basic trainers in two batches – 70 and 36, the officials said.

The HTT-40 aircraft has undergone a string of elaborate tests at HAL to demonstrate that it is safe for rookie pilots and meets the IAF’s exacting standards for trainer planes.

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The other two countries that have evinced interest in the aircraft are Argentina and Egypt, according to Minister of State for Defence Ajay Bhatt.

Tejas, manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, is a single-engine multi-role fighter aircraft capable of operating in high-threat air environments.

In February last year, the defence ministry sealed a Rs 48,000 crore deal with HAL for the procurement of 83 Tejas light combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Replying to a question in Lok Sabha on Tejas, Bhatt said the HAL responded to a Request for Information (RFI) or initial tender received from Royal Malaysian Air Force in February 2019.

Subsequently, the HAL responded in October 2021 to a Request For Proposal (RFP) issued by Malaysia for 18 aircraft, adding the twin-seater variant of the Tejas was offered.

Malaysia is procuring the aircraft to replace its ageing fleet of Russian MiG-29 fighter planes. The number of aircraft that Malaysia is looking at procuring is not immediately clear. In July, the then Chairman and Managing Director of HAL R Madhavan said the Tejas aircraft has emerged as the top choice for Malaysia.

“Other countries which have evinced interest in LCA aircraft are Argentina, Australia, Egypt, USA, Indonesia, and the Philippines,” he said.

“Further, the desired information is sensitive in nature and its disclosure is not in the interest of national security,” he said.

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The missiles hit with precision and successfully defeated the targets at two different ranges. The all-indigenous ATGM employs a tandem high explosive anti-tank (HEAT) warhead to defeat explosive reactive armour (ERA) protected armoured vehicles, news agency ANI reported.

The ATGM has been developed with multi-platform launch capability and is currently undergoing technical evaluation trials from 120-mm rifled gun of MBT Arjun. With these trials, consistency of ATGM’s capability to engage targets from minimum to maximum range has been established successfully.

Defence minister Rajnath Singh complimented the DRDO and the army for the successful performance of the ATGMs. Secretary of the department of defence R&D and chairman DRDO G Satheesh Reddy congratulated the teams associated with the test firing of the ATGMs.

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The Yuan Wang-class ship was expected to dock in Hambantota Port on 11 or 12 August 11. It tracks satellites and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The ship, which has a crew of 400, is equipped with a large parabolic tracking antenna and various sensors.

If deployed in parts of the Indian Ocean, the ship may be able to monitor India’s missile tests from Wheeler Island off the coast of Odisha.  By tracking Indian ballistic missile tests, China will be able to glean information on the performance of missiles and their exact range.

The Sri Lankan government has told NDTV that they will allow the ship to dock since it is a non-nuclear platform but are aware of India’s concerns. “China informed us that they are sending their ship for surveillance and navigation in the Indian Ocean,” said Sri Lanka’s Defence Ministry media spokesman Colonel Nalin Herath.

Indian government sources said they are monitoring the progress of the ship. India has made it clear it will closely monitor “any bearing on India’s security and economic interests and takes all necessary measures to safeguard them”.

The ship is controlled by the China National Space Administration but has very significant military applications.

India remains suspicious of China’s growing influence in Sri Lanka, which owes large amounts of money to Beijing for infrastructure projects, including the $1.4-billion Hambantota Port.

Sri Lanka gave a Chinese company a 99-year lease on the port, located along the main East-West international shipping lanes, in 2017 after being unable to keep up with debt repayments on the facility. Sri Lanka defaulted on its $51 billion in foreign debts in April and has since opened bailout talks with the International Monetary Fund.

In 2014, a Chinese submarine had docked at Hambantota Port, sparking security concerns for the Indian Navy. No such Chinese submarine visits to Lankan ports took place since.

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In a statement released on 3 August, the rebel group claimed responsibility for targeting and downing the low-flying Pakistan military helicopter in the mountainous areas of Windar and Noorani in Balochistan.

According to reports, the wreckage of the Pakistan Army helicopter carrying senior military officers that had gone missing on August 1 was found in Musa Goth, Windar, Lasbela on Tuesday, August 2. Six individuals who were on board including Commander 12 Corps were found dead.

On 2 August, Director-General (DG) ISPR Tweeted that the initial probe revealed that the accident had occurred due to bad weather. “The wreckage of an unfortunate helicopter which was on flood relief ops found in Musa Goth, Windar, Lasbela. All 6 officers and soldiers including l Lt Gen Sarfraz Ali embraced shahadat. …Accident occurred due to bad weather as per initial investigations,” Director-General (DG) ISPR said in a tweet.

The Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) spokesperson Baloch Khan, however, said in a statement on 3 August, “Freedom fighters of BRAS targeted a low flying helicopter of Pakistan military. The targeted helicopter crashed near Moosa Goth in Dareji.”

“In the attack, carried out with anti-aircraft guns, the helicopter was badly damaged and later completely destroyed. All six enemy personnel on board the flight were killed in the attack. They included Core Commander 12 Core Lieutenant General Sarfaraz Ali, Director General Coast Guard Major General Amjad, Brigadier Khalid, pilot Major Saeed, co-pilot Talha and crew chief Naik Muddasir”, the statement by BRAS added.

The spokesperson for BRAS asserted that the helicopter was the target of its fighters and added that Lieutenant General Sarfaraz Ali, who had continued to serve as Director General of Military Intelligence and Inspector General of the Frontier Corps South of Balochistan, was directly involved in forced disappearances and the Baloch genocide. Lieutenant General Sarfaraz Ali was one of the six Pakistani commanders who were on board the helicopter, supervising the flood relief operations in Lasbela, Balochistan.

“Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) will continue to carry lethal attacks against the enemy (Pakistan army) until the full withdrawal of the enemy forces and the liberation of Baloch motherland”, the statement of BRAS added.

According to authorities, the helicopter left Uthal at 5:10 p.m. on Monday and was scheduled to arrive in Karachi at 6:05 p.m. but lost communication with the air traffic controller.

“A Pakistan army aviation helicopter which was on flood relief operations in Lasbela, Balochistan lost contact with ATC. 6 individuals were on board including Commander 12 Corps who was supervising flood relief operations in Balochistan. The search operation is underway,” Tweeted Director-General (DG) ISPR on Monday, August 1.

Balochistan has been devastated by flash floods and heavy rains, which have killed 147 people so far. Relief operations are now being offered to the displaced in the province by the Pakistan Army and civic authorities.

Police and Army officers combed the region on Tuesday in an effort to find the chopper. However, the hazardous hilly terrain and the region’s damaged roadways caused by the flooding hindered their attempts. Later, the Pakistan army’s media wing said in a statement that the wreckage of the helicopter was found and claimed that, “the accident occurred due to bad weather.”

Notably, in February this year, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) had attacked two posts in Pakistan’s southwest province neutralizing more than 100 Pakistani personnel and destroying a large part of their camps. The BLA issued an official statement confirming that the major parts of both the camps were still under their control. Then too the Pakistan military’s media wing Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) denied the intensity of the attack and declared a reduced number of deaths.

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BrahMos Aerospace CEO Atul Rane recently told TASS that about three or four nations in South East Asia and the Middle East could buy Indo-Russian BrahMos missiles in the next few years.

“I expect another one or two we will have another three-four countries on board from South East Asia and the Middle East. Those countries which are coming in the press – Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia,” the chief executive said. “In the Middle East, it could be UAE, Saudi Arabia,” Rane emphasized.

Oman has also shown interest in the BrahMos missiles, Rane said. Earlier, according to some sources that confirmed to Financial Express Online, “Talks with Indonesia are in advanced stage for the export of the Indo-Russian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

If a deal is indeed signed between the two sides, Indonesia will become the second ASEAN member country after the Philippines to import missiles from India. In January 2022, India signed a $375 million deal with Manila to supply three BrahMos ground-based anti-ship missiles.

In 2018, Indonesia first expressed interest in purchasing the Indo-Russian jointly produced cruise missile. As talks proceeded, a team from the BrahMos joint venture visited an Indonesian shipyard in Surabaya in 2018 to “assess the fitting of the missile on Indonesian warships,” as noted by Hindustan Times.

The negotiations with Jakarta have been in advanced stages for a while and were also on the “top of the agenda” when the Indonesian Defense Minister visited India in July 2020.

Indonesia plans to equip its warships with the BrahMos missile. The short-range BrahMos ramjet supersonic cruise missile can be launched from aircraft, ships, land platforms, and submarines. Additionally, this missile can fly at 2.8 Mach, or three times the speed of sound.

The agreement with Indonesia, which is anticipated to be finalized by the year’s end or next year, will offer India a strategic foothold in the area and accelerate the policy push to increase defense exports significantly.

India has traditionally been a defense importer, and the present government is hell-bent on carving its space in the export market.

However, that also presents a question of why the South East Asian countries are showing interest in the BrahMos missile jointly developed by India and Russia over the Harpoon missile developed by the United States.

It is pertinent to note that the US has a close functional partnership with most ASEAN states. In fact, Taiwan already has Harpoon missiles in the wider Indo-Pacific region. EurAsian Times spoke to experts for a perspective.

Why BrahMos Over Harpoons?

The Harpoon is an over-the-horizon, subsonic, high-explosive anti-ship missile. It follows its target with active radar and detonates on contact. The missile’s 224-kilogram payload is intended to provide a sharp burst.

The flexible missile can be launched from vehicles, including trucks, submarines, and airplanes. The Harpoon has gone through several Blocks or stages of development.

The newest operational Harpoon model, Block 2, has enhanced resilience to countermeasures and better targeting, among other significant characteristics.

In contrast, BrahMos is one of the few cruise missiles worldwide that can travel at high supersonic speeds. The missile is exceptionally challenging to intercept due to its speed. Harpoon is a subsonic missile, while BrahMos’ supersonic speed is one of its most significant advantages.

Another advantage that BrahMos has over the Harpoon missile is its low radar signature which makes it harder to intercept. While Harpoon Block II missile has a maximum range of 240 kilometers, the BrahMos can hit a target as far as 290 kilometers. Further, the BrahMos can carry a payload of 200-300 kilograms.

While the Harpoon can be launched from a fixed-wing aircraft, surface ship, and submarines, the BrahMos missile could be launched from the ground, ships, submarines, and fixed-wing aircraft.

While the Philippines has bought ground-based anti-ship missiles, Indonesia could be buying the warship variant. This is the versatility that BrahMos offers.

According to a Philippines-based military analyst Miguel Miranda, “the Indonesian navy operates a dazzling and somewhat ridiculous arsenal of different naval and coastal weaponry, including Chinese anti-ship missiles and even the Russian Yakhont, which is the missile the BrahMos is based upon.

The Harpoon is combat proven and in service with many countries, but it’s far from a unique weapon system as it’s subsonic, radar homing, and an old design. There are many similar missiles, and the Indonesians already have French-made Exocets.

The biggest selling point of the BrahMos is that it’s from a family of supersonic missiles that can be used on mobile launchers, naval surface and subsurface combatants, and even aircraft.”

While these are technical aspects, former Vice Admiral of the Indian Navy Shekhar Sinha gave us a different perspective: “First, affordability & cost is a preeminent reason. Second, in the foreign policy assessment, ASEAN probably sees Indian policies, both political & security, as more suitable for partnership than the United States.

Third, India’s policy of SAGAR and Act East. Help and assistance to neighbors have made a lasting impression on its maritime neighbors. It is India’s sincerity that is acknowledged by these nations. And lastly, India’s consistency in its China policy provides an underlying similarity with the ASEAN countries.”

India’s BrahMos Route To Challenge China

Apart from Indonesia, several other nations in the South East Asian region, such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, could be interested in BrahMos, developed on a modest budget of $300 million.

The BrahMos missile is among the best-performing in the class of air-breathing supersonic cruise missiles. The sale would potentially face no obstacle from the Russian side, which mostly remains on cordial terms with most ASEAN countries.

The military and bilateral relationship between India and Indonesia have been steadily strengthening due to Indonesia’s centrality in New Delhi’s Indo-Pacific Policy.

New Delhi sees Jakarta as a critical partner in its ‘Act East’ policy aimed at expanding connectivity and strategic ties with Southeast Asia to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The two nations launched a joint project to develop the crucial Indonesian port of Sabang, which is 90 nautical miles from India’s own Andaman and the Nicobar Islands and just off the northern tip of Sumatra side of the Malacca Strait, which is very strategic to China.

India could be seen negotiating a deal with countries with active disputes with China in the South China Sea- mainly the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

For instance, China consistently enters Indonesian waters, claiming the Exclusive Economic Zone of Indonesia to the north of the Natuna Islands as “traditional fishing grounds.” In addition to containing fishing grounds, the waters surrounding the Natuna Islands also contain oil and gas resources.

Indonesia’s potential purchase of BrahMos missiles is a part of a more considerable effort to deter China from threatening its sovereignty by strengthening its military. It is also in the process of upgrading its Air Force with new fighter jets.

On its part, the Philippines bears the largest brunt of the contest for the Spratly Islands. In 2021, it complained about the weeks-long presence of dozens of vessels from China’s so-called ‘maritime militia’ at Whitsun Reef, which lies about 320 kilometers (175 nautical miles) west of Palawan Island within its EEZ. The Chinese Coast Guard regularly intimidates the Filipinos at sea.

As for Vietnam, it remains embroiled in a perpetual dispute with China over the ownership of the Paracel Islands. Faced with an enemy several times the size of its military, it remains vulnerable to threats from the Chinese PLA. This is one of the primary reasons it is talking with India to purchase a BrahMos missile.

Not too long ago, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh signed India’s first-ever significant Mutual Logistics Agreement in the wake of growing Chinese intimidation in the region. And as far as Malaysia is concerned, India is not only pitching the BrahMos missile but also aggressively pushing the sale of LCA Tejas, which could see a massive breakthrough.

 The Indian Air Force Tejas performs at the opening ceremony of the Singapore Air Show on February 15, 2022.

These countries face a threat from China and have ongoing disputes with the Asian giant, assisting them increases China’s burden in the South China Sea.

It is, of course, in India’s interest to ensure that China has enough problems in its backyard to divert its attention and reduce the pressure it can bring on India and the Indian Ocean. India’s ongoing territorial dispute with China makes this much more critical, as do China’s growing naval capabilities.

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