The Agnipath Scheme approved by the government and now under implementation has its serious flaws, which must be addressed.

Lessons from Ukraine

The ongoing war in Ukraine has some very pertinent lessons, which India must ingest and implement before it is too late. Simply put, 70 per cent of our high-tech equipment is of Russian origin, which has been put to the unforgiving test of combat. There is a dire need to retro-fit and re-design based on lessons learnt. The key lesson, however, is the unprecedented levels of lethality on the modern battlefield and the sheer scale of casualties that are staggering and unprecedented. We are almost back to the carnage and slaughter levels of World War I era. The Clausewitzian dictum of war, not just as an unrelenting contest of national wills but also of stamina and endurance, is back. This is the most inopportune time to downsize or reduce numbers (as we are doing in India). The world over, defence budgets are rising very fast and armed forces are adding not just new weapons and equipment but also increasing the size of their armed forces. This is the new era of not just high-tech but high-tech and Mass. Nations that want to win in such unrelenting wars will need to generate the mass that is required to prevail in such intense and long duration grinds of attrition. Wars will increasingly be a test of national will and stamina to stay the course. Both Russia and Ukraine are feverishly raising and training new formations even as they are locked in brutal combat. Downsizing a standing field force in such a dire scenario could well be an invitation to very severe problems in wartime.

High Tech and Mass. Today, the world is witnessing the sheer costs nations are willing to endure to attain their objectives and simply prevail in such hard fought slogs of attrition. Russia is not at all short of high-tech equipment. (We are buying most of ours from them). What Russia is painfully short of is manpower and its ill-effects are for the world to see as it recycles the same tiered and battered formations again and again and is constantly having to move its units and formations around to plug gaps. Russia attacked Ukraine with a force of just 1,50,000. Ukraine, in turn, mobilized fully and has fielded a force of 2,50,000. This has enabled it to regain the initiative because it can constantly open up new fronts. Manpower is not a drain on resources needed to buy high-tech equipment. It is a key resource without which no war can be won. India has no dearth of manpower. In fact, we have the largest and youngest population in the world. Yet we have been exhibiting an obsessive concern to down size and reduce our manpower, as if instead of being an asset, it was our biggest liability.

Historical Precedents

There are some underlying reasons and a history to this down-sizing urge – especially in the Indian Army. It goes back to 1990, when the Indian economy had come close to the point of collapse. The government of the day told the armed forces they simply had no money to give for our military modernsiation and we would have to wait till our GDP went up. In a desperate bid to raise money for the capital budget, then Army chief Gen VP Malik had come up with the idea of slashing the Revenue Budget by down-sizing. Desperate times call for desperate solutions, perhaps. Today, our economy is the fifth largest in the world. We had suppressed manpower by 50,000 men and were trying to cut another 50,000. That is the time the Kargil War intervened. We were forced to restore disbanded units and raise some 36 new Rashtriya Rifles battalions and new Sector and Force HQs (not to mention a new Corps HQ for Leh). In cost cutting and accounting exercises, we simply cannot afford to lose sight of our threat environment and need for retaining operational effectiveness. Accountant Generals cannot replace Generals in times of war.

The primary rationale for the launch the Agnipath scheme was the panic over the ballooning pension bill of the armed forces. This panic was not entirely unjustified. The combined salary bill of the armed forces today is Rs 1.08 lakh crores. The pension bill now surpasses it at a whopping Rs 1.12 lakh crores. Quite clearly, this level of outlay for pensions was unsustainable and something would have to be done about it. There was a proposal to apply the National Pension Scheme (NPS) to the armed forces, too, but this was deemed politically unacceptable. There was a far more viable Inverse Induction Model – wherein soldiers retiring from armed forces would automatically move on to the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) and paramilitary forces (PMFs) or do a short stint and then migrate to CAPFs. This was the most logical option and one which the armed forces have been asking for decades. Unfortunately, the IPS lobby has been most unwilling to accept this for pure reasons of turf, empire building and institutional egos. The ostensible reason given is that they need young troopers. Considering that the age of retirement in the CAPFs is 58, this sounds a bit rich. Data indicates that the CAPFs so far took only 0.9% of retired soldiers in Groupp C posts and just 0.47% in Gp D posts. Thus, the most logical and desirable model which would have provided tactical skills and combat experience of the Army soldiers to the CAPFs, was never allowed to take off.

The Agnipath Scheme now adopted is a mish-mash of many models. Unfortunately, in trying to please all it has ended up pleasing almost nobody. The ostensible aims are rather noble. It is to infuse discipline into the Indian population at large. So far, each year 60,000 armed forces personnel used to retire and go back to the villages. If they and the National Cadet Corps (NCC) could not instill general discipline, I fail to see how 43,000 Agniveers every year (present intake) will make a greater difference? A great deal of concern is expressed about the second career of the Agniveers. Promises galore are being made but these would have to be fortified by an act of Parliament.

My basic question however, is about the first chosen career. How viable or attractive is it in comparative terms? A youth in a village – would he opt for the Police, CRPF or BSF, etc, where once in he can serve for 58 years or a most uncertain four year Tour of Duty in the Army? Four years is simply too short a period to integrate the Agniveers into the ethos and regimentation of an Army unit – especially where crew-served weapons are involved. There is also the danger of trained manpower being exploited by terrorists, gangsters or anti- national elements on release. We had faced this threat in the Punjab in the 1980s. Shabeg Singh was a former major general of the Army. If he and other boys could go astray then how can we be so sanguine that the Maoist or other groups will not exploit the Agniveers? Also, we need to consider the burden on the commanding officers at the unit level. If the CO is operationally committed on the Line of Control/ counter-terrorism operations/ Line of Actual Control, how does he train these Agniveers? By the time he does, they would be on their way out. Will a short-term inductee not be risk-averse? The Ukarine war has clearly highlighted the conscripts and short term inductees as the weakest link in the chain.

Cutting Manpower

The Agnipath scheme has been accompanied by a manpower cut of almost 1.5 lakhs in the Army. For two years no recruitment was done on the plea of Covid. Since 60,000 soldiers retire each year, it implies that the Army is short by minimum 1.5–2 lakhs already. Given the alarming level of rising threats from China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey and terrorists elsewhere, this almost sounds like a civilisational death wish. The Agnipath scheme is long term in impact. Financial gains will only be realized 15 year down the line when they would ostensibly have retired. So, no new weapons will come into the armed forces now as a result of this scheme. We still have to find resources to buy or produce the weapons in the here and now. Meanwhile, the existing manpower assets have also been slashed.

Ukraine Pointers

The Russia-Ukraine War has clearly highlighted the tremendous new lethality of the modern battlefield. The casualties to weapons, equipment and personnel have been of an unprecedented level, that is reminiscent of the slaughters of the First World War. Force preservation, reconstitution of battered units and casualty replacement are the worrying new dilemmas. Wars will no longer be short duration and high-intensity. The Ukraine War is already into its seventh month and the end is nowhere in sight. It is becoming a serious test of national stamina and endurance. Russia has no shortage of equipment. It is drastically short of manpower and its problems are acutely visible to the whole world. We have no dearth of manpower but are busy slashing and down-sizing when we need to be desperately creating new jobs for the rising youth-bulge in our population. The pattern of wars is inexorably shifting back to the levels of lethality of the two World Wars. The Indian Army was a regular standing army precisely structured to fight such intense wars. Now that we are returning to the era of such wars, we are busy destabilizing ourselves by creating unprecedented amounts of organizational turbulence. Why do we want to down size, get in short-term inductees as 50 per cent of the force, reduce 17 single service commands to just five Tri-Service ones, as also change our regimental model – and why do we want it done day before yesterday? We have a tried and tested armed forces, which have served us very well so far. An old military proverb says “don’t change horses mid-stream” before the battle.

What then is the way out? Two constructive suggestions – increase the colour service from four to seven years and retention from 25% to 50%. We will, thereby, make the army a viable career and return to the tried and tested model, which kept the Army young and won you the 1971 War!

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United States of America

The United States, which is the strongest military power in the world, recruits personnel for a four-year term during which time they are on “active” duty. Personnel serve another four years on “inactive” duty which means they can be recalled if the need arises. The usa.gov website says that after an individual has completed active duty time, he or she can either extend the contract or re-enlist if they want to continue serving. Soldiers are eligible for pension after they serve 20 years in the military. Those who opt out before are eligible for certain perks and allowances.

China

China has been downsizing its military’s human resources and adding more firepower to its strength.

The Chinese military is based on conscription which makes military service obligatory for all men aged above 18 years.

As per Chinese law, the term of service for conscripts is three years in the Army and four years in the Navy and the Air Force. For volunteers, the term of active service is eight years and no more than 12 years.

In recent years, China has been trying to reduce conscription and recruit more educated and technically proficient soldiers.

Russia

The Russian Army has historically used conscription to ensure they have reserves with military training, in case there is a need to mobilise for a major war.

Russia follows a hybrid contract and conscript model. Conscripts have a term of one year and are then put into reserve. All males aged 18 to 27 are subject to conscription for a year of military duty after an 8-month training period.

Russia has two conscription season every year – from 1 April until 15 July (spring) and between 1 October and 31 December (autumn). Men aged between 18 and 27, with no health issues or outstanding convictions could be called on to serve. However, failure to appear at the registration office is punishable by large fines and a two-year prison sentence.

Contract soldiers are given advanced training and deployed in strategic units. Despite conscription to create a reserve army, Russia has fallen short of men on the ground amid its war in Ukraine and has been reportedly hiring foreign fighters.

Israel

Conscription is a model Israel follows since its formation in 1948 to defend its territories from what was then a largely hostile neighbourhood. However, that is largely a “myth” now since Israel too has made a moved on from a conscription-based army to a leaner professional army as dynamics in the middle-east change.

The Ultra-orthodox and Arab Israelis are exempted from conscription. Arab citizens of Israel are allowed to enlist voluntarily.

Adult Israeli men must serve for 30 months and women for 24 months, unless they volunteer for a unit that requires additional service time. Afterwards they are put in a pool of reserves who can be called for service if required. 10 per cent of the conscripts are retained and given a contract for seven years. Those who serve a minimum of 12 years receive the benefits of a pension.

France

According to a SIPRI report of 2017, France has the largest armed forces in size in the European Union.

In 1996, President Jacques Chirac’s government announced the end of conscription and in 2001, conscription formally was ended.

Today, the youth of France joins the Armed Forces, called the Forces armées françaises, on a voluntary and contractual basis. The volunteer can sign a one-year contract, which can be extended to five years.

Soldiers are given training for three months and those who serve for over 19 years are eligible for state pension.

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The scheme has been accused of diluting the professionalism of the armed forces. They also feel that the process will result in mixed units, who will lack cohesion and hence regimentation, which will reduce their effectiveness. There is also the criticism that with the induction of women in all trades, a unit’s fighting efficiency and rigour will reduce.

The concept is new for the Indian armed forces, but similar schemes have been implemented in several other countries, without any adverse impacts.

The scheme has been evolved keeping in mind the phenomenal changes in society and technology, and to equip the organisation to be future ready. In a modern battle field everyone requires a younger workforce, tech-savvy or tech friendly armed force and a modern fighting soldier.

The future of warfare entails a lighter human footprint, but soldiers equipped with state-of-the-art weaponry, supported by cutting-edge technology to fight a war in a highly informationised environment. This recruitment reform would help in right sizing the armed forces provided it gets dovetailed into the imperatives of fifth generation warfare.

There is a desire among the youth, especially those in the border areas, to serve the country for a short duration, rather than settle for a service spanning about two decades.

In a Nutshell

Agniveers will go through 26 weeks of basic military training (the existing module is of 44 weeks), bear a distinct rank; and have on-the-job training in the unit. After the four-year engagement, they will go back to society. During the service, their uniform will have a distinct insignia. The armed forces should achieve a younger warrior profile without compromising on quality or capability. And, Agniveers should be looked after in terms of employment benefits and post-exit opportunities.

For the ranks below officers, the Agnipath Scheme is the equivalent of the short service scheme for officers The armed forces have a Short Service Commission (SSC) for officers for 10 to 14 years, which was necessitated as a cadre-management exercise. The SSC scheme has worked well and SSC officers have been fairly well employed in the civil world.

Agniveers will be selected from across the country. The selection process should improve homogeneity, national cohesion and integration.

Agniveers will be entitled to all medical facilities, leave, CSD facilities, honours and awards. They will have a fixed salary package, with annual increments. In addition, they will get the risk and hardship, dress, and travel allowances. Agniveers will be provided life insurance cover for their engagement period. They will also be entitled to compensation for disability. One-time ex-gratia will be paid in case of death on duty in addition to the insurance.

The tax-exempt ‘Seva Nidhi’ package and detailed skill-set certificate will be provided to Agniveers, for possible employment outside.

Significant Advantages

One significant advantage of this scheme would be the much lower age profile of the service. It will increase promotional avenues of the permanent cadre. The significant advantage for the young entrant will be early employment with significantly good emoluments and a 25 per cent chance of joining the permanent cadre. The Agniveers will acquire new skill sets, leadership and team-building capabilities.

It may not be possible to train or assign hi-tech jobs in this short period of engagement of Agniveers, but they will be used for many less technical jobs, including working on the aircraft and on ships. Those who become permanent employees will go through higher technical training. The armed forces have confirmed that their combat capability will not be affected by such enrolment.

Primarily, the scheme has been woven around the need for the national exchequer to save money, which can then be used for modernisation of the forces. India’s defence budget for 2022-23 is Rs 5.25 lakh crore, of which Rs 1.2 lakh crore is for pension component. As per reports, the “prospective life-term saving” in the cost of engagement of a jawan who leaves after 17 years of service with pension and other benefits, as compared to an Agniveer, will be Rs 11.5 crore. National defence budget management is essential. There has to be a much more significant percentage for Capital acquisitions. No major country has such adverse capital to revenue expenditure and pension bill ratios. It is hoped that the money saved would be used to focus more on the advancement of technology and military modernisation.

Countering Criticism

It is unfair to say that Agniveers will not have the desired status in the forces. They will be a key member of the team. Similarly, it will also give an opportunity for the youth to choose if they want to continue the armed forces career or switch to other options.

While there may not be assured side-stepping in paramilitary forces or in any other government organisation, help and guidance will be provided to soldiers for their employment, including in the private sector.

As regards professionalism, a cursory look at the list of gallantry award winners will indicate that most of them had service less than five years and there is no doubt that with better educational qualifications, it is feasible to abridge the existing training period.

As regards regimentation, there are mixed units in the army, which have in no way performed lesser than the ‘pure’ regiments. In any case, dedication is a factor of motivation and not of the number of years that one puts in.

The example of western countries indicates that the induction of women in no way reduces the efficiency, but in most cases enhances it. More significantly, the scheme would reduce the average age of the force thereby enhancing its youthful profile and fitness levels.

There is also an apprehension that this youthful population with military training could “create political militias”, if they cannot find suitable employment avenues. However, a young person aged 21-25 with a nationwide exposure and having led a disciplined life will have much better employability than any other youth from a similar background.

The Seva Nidhi funds will prepare them for self-employment. Of course, both the central government and the state governments as well as the society at large will need to provide an enabling environment for their absorption into other walks of life.

No Change in Regimental System

No change is being done to the Army’s regimental system under the ‘Agnipath’ scheme and the numbers of personnel to be recruited in the first year of its roll out would only make up three per cent of the armed forces. There were apprehensions that the ‘Agnipath’ scheme would change the composition of several regiments that recruit youths from specific regions as well as castes such as Rajputs, Jats and Sikhs.

On the criticism that the short-duration tenure of ‘Agniveers’ will harm the effectiveness of the armed forces, such a system exists in several countries, and hence, it is already “tested out and considered best practice for an agile army. Most armies across the world depend upon their youths and the new scheme will only bring about a right mix of “50 per cent-50 per cent” slowly in a very long run of youngsters and experienced personnel in the supervisory ranks.

China Case Study

Military reforms in China were the result of the Gulf War of 1990 and the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995. The Chinese Communist Party leadership adopted a three-pronged approach by exponentially ramping up defence spending. It involved investing in new weaponry, enhancing anti-access area denial tactics, and establishing programmes to boost the Chinese defence industry. They brought in a fundamental change – integrated fighting force with first-rate naval and air capabilities. As the other services expanded, the army was shrunk to around 9,75,000 from an approximate three million in the mid-70s and the higher defence management paradigm was reorganised into theatre commands by February 2016.

Suggestions

In addition to the reservation provided for former Agniveers in CAPFs and other PSUs, both central government and state governments, there needs to be provisions to provide them with cheaper credit to start their own businesses. Despite 5th and 6th Central Pay Commissions clearly recommending ex-servicemen’s induction into the CPOs, it has not been implemented by bureaucrats, who occupy the top echelons of CPOs and consider them their handmaidens. It is essential that at least 25 per cent of jobs in all CPOs be reserved for former Agniveers. This will provide CPOs with trained workforce, thereby reducing their training costs, and will ensure that no Agniveer remains unemployed and disgruntled after his ‘Tour of Duty’.

The Agnipath Scheme should be seen as a national project, rather than just a defence ministry initiative to cut costs. It must, therefore, not be allowed to fail due to bureaucratic machinations.

Among a slew of reforms that the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) recommended, one pertained to the recruitment practices of the armed forces. It stated, “the Army must be young and fit at all times. Therefore, instead of the present practice of having 17 years of colour service (as has been the policy since 1976), it would be advisable to reduce the colour service to a period of seven to ten years and, thereafter, release these officers and men for service here”.

In 2000, a Group of Ministers (GOM) endorsed the KRC’s recommendation stating that, “in order to ensure that the armed forces are at their fighting best at all times, there is a need to ensure a younger profile of the services. However, this is a highly complex matter. While the army desires a younger age profile, so do the central paramilitary forces (CPMFs)”. The Naresh Chandra Task Force on National Security set up by the UPA government in 2011 also addressed this issue. Its report, however, is not public so far.

Keeping all aspects in mind, the colour service of jawans should be set at seven years, instead of four as incorporated in the Scheme.

The defence forces should absorb 50 per cent and release the balance to the civilian pool. Over the next 60 years, 13.8 lakh youth would be Agniveers, provided the 50 per cent absorption formulae is accepted.

The Agnipath scheme should be made an Act through legislation in Parliament with the proviso of being a pre-qualification for:

(i) Entry into all government and corporate jobs;

(ii) candidates for Assembly and Lok Sabha elections should be Agniveers as a prerequisite;

(iii) Ministry of Defence staff cadre.

Once the MoD stands dispensed with, 45% of the pension bill for civilians in the ministry, currently as part of the defence budget, will vanish, thereby resulting in national savings.

The post In Defence of the Agnipath Scheme appeared first on IMR.

The Union Cabinet took a historic decision approving an attractive recruitment scheme for Indian youth to serve in the Armed Forces for which a scheme has been introduced with the name Agnipath. The youth, in the age group of 17.5 years to 23 years (revised upper age limit) will be selected under the Agnipath and called Agniveers. With the announcement of this Agnipath Scheme, a window of opportunity has been opened for the youths to serve their nation for a period of four years.

Broad Objectives

The broad objectives of the Agnipath Scheme are:

•  To enhance the youthful profile of the Armed Forces so that they are at their fighting best at all times with increased risk-taking ability.

•  To imbibe the Armed Forces ethos, courage, commitment, and teamwork in the youth.

•  To provide abilities and qualities such as discipline, motivation, dynamism, and work skills so that youth remains as an asset.

•  To provide an opportunity to the youth who may be keen to serve the Nation in uniform for a short period of time.

•  To attract youth talent among the society to effectively exploit, adapt, and use emerging modern technologies with enhanced technical thresholds of intake while leveraging Technical institutions of the country.

The Scheme

The Key Features are:

• Opportunity to serve the nation as Agniveers through enrolment in the Forces.

•   Pan-India merit based recruitment.

•   Four years tenure.

•   Attractive monthly emoluments and handsome ‘Seva Nidhi’ package.

•   Opportunity to apply for enrolment in permanent cadre.

Based on merit and organisational requirement, up to 25% Agniveers selected through central, transparent, rigorous system after four years. The other 75 per cent will be released with benefits.

Agnipath scheme has a recruitment process for individuals below the rank of officer, with the goal of deploying fitter, younger troops on the front lines, many of whom will be on four-year contracts.

The Armed Forces will be recruiting 46,000 Agniveers in 2022 through Agnipath scheme. On completion of the four-year period, Aginveers will go to the society as a disciplined, dynamic, motivated, and skilled workforce for employment in other sectors to pursue their career in the job of their choice. During their four years in service, the recruits will be trained by the armed forces in the skills required.

Women will also be inducted into the armed forces under the new scheme. Officials, however, added that the recruitment of women under the scheme will depend on the needs of the respective services.

Conditions of Service

Eligibility. Age limit for applicants is 17.5 to 23 years.

Recruitment. Candidates will be enrolled under the respective Service Act for a service duration of four years including training period.

Selection. Selection will be done through a centralised, transparent and rigorous system. On enrolment in regular cadre, pay fixed as regular soldier. Pension as per extant regulations.

Screening Assessment. Centralised transparent screening, based on merit and demonstrated performance during service. Agniveers can apply on volunteer basis to enroll in the regular cadre.

Financial Package

Composite Annual Package. Firs year package – approx Rs 4.76 lakhs. Upgradation up to approx Rs 6.92 lakhs in the fourth year.

Allowances. Risk and hardship, ration, dress, travel allowances as applicable.

Seva Nidhi.

On completion of four years tenure all candidates will be entitled to ‘Seva Nidhi’.

•   30 per cent of monthly emoluments to be contributed by individuals.

•   Equal amount matched and contributed by the Government.

•   Corpus of approx Rs 11.71 lakhs after four years exempted from Income Tax.

Death Compensation.

•   Non-contributory life insurance cover of Rs 48 lakhs.

•   Additional ex-gratia of Rs 44 lakhs for death attributable to service.

•   Pay for unserved portion up to four years including ‘Seva Nidhi’ component.

Disability Compensation. Compensation based on percentage of disability laid down by medical authorities. One time ex-gratia of Rs 44/ 25/ 15 lakhs for 100%/ 75%/ 50% disability, respectively.

Incentives and Job Reservation

Incentives. The ministries of home affairs and defence announced concessions and incentives that will assist Agniveers in their further employment. PSUs under housing and petroleum ministries were working on hiring ‘Agniveers’ after their service in the armed forces. Shipping ministry announced 6 attractive service opportunities for Agniveers from Indian Navy for a smooth transition into Merchant Navy.

Reservation. The government has announced a 10% reservation for ‘Agniveers’ in central police forces & Assam Rifles with upper age relaxation. Defence Ministry also came up with a 10% quota in the Coast Guard, defence civilian posts and 16 defence PSUs, which include major ones like Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Electronics, as well as four shipyards and 41 ordnance factories.

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