Major terrorist groups that focused on conducting attacks in Pakistan included Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and ISIS-K, the US Bureau of Counterterrorism’s report said. “Pakistan reviewed and revised its 2015 National Action Plan (NAP) to counter terrorism, reducing the NAP from a 20-point plan to 14 key points, but made meager progress on the most difficult aspects — specifically its pledge to dismantle all terrorist organizations without delay or discrimination,” the report read.

Terrorist attacks were conducted against varied targets in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Sindh provinces by separatist militant groups. The terrorists used a range of tactics to attack varied targets, including IEDs, VBIEDs, suicide bombings, and targeted assassinations.

Pakistan was in 2018, designated a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. It was redesignated as a CPC in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

In 2018, FATF identified Pakistan as a jurisdiction with strategic deficiencies in its AML/CFT system. Pakistan remained on the FATF grey list in 2021.

In 2021, members of religious minorities in Pakistan faced significant threats from terrorist groups. On January 3, ISIS-K militants claimed responsibility for the murders of 11 Shia Hazara coalminers in the Kachi district of Balochistan. On April 21, five persons were killed in a VBIED suicide attack in the parking lot of the Serena hotel in Quetta, Balochistan. According to details of the investigation, the attack targeted local and foreign officials. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack, also claiming the targets were police and law enforcement, according to the Bureau of Counterterrorism’s report on terrorism in Pakistan.

A prominent journalist in Pakistan was on October 10, 2021, killed in an explosion in Hub, Balochistan. According to law enforcement, the bomb was attached to his vehicle. The BLA claimed responsibility for the attack.

On December 30, attackers ambushed security officials in North Waziristan. Four security personnel were killed in the ensuing exchange of fire. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.

As per the ‘Country Reports on Terrorism 2021: Pakistan’, the Pakistani government continued to implement the Antiterrorism Act of 1997, the National Counterterrorism Authority Act, the 2014 Investigation for Fair Trial Act, and major 2014 and 2020 amendments to the Antiterrorism Act, all of which give law enforcement, prosecutors, and courts enhanced powers in terrorism cases.

Military, paramilitary, and civilian security forces conducted CT operations throughout Pakistan against anti-state militants. Pakistani law allows for preventive detention, permits the death penalty for terrorism offences, and creates specialized courts to try terrorism cases, as per the official report.

The extremist doctrine was being taught by some madrassas in Pakistan.

While the government continued efforts to increase madrassa regulation, some analysts and madrassa reform proponents observed that many madrassas failed to register with the government, provide documentation of their sources of funding, or comply with laws governing acceptance of foreign students, according to the official report.

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The officials also exposed the role of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in the 2008 Mumbai attacks before the CTC by playing an audio clip of top LeT operative Sajid Mir, in which he can be heard giving instructions to the attackers at Chabad House, a Jewish outreach centre where several Israeli citizens were killed.

The officials were briefing the members of the CTC during an informal session held at the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, one of the main targets of the attacks carried out in November 2008 by a 10-member LeT team.

Mir was arrested by Pakistani authorities and convicted of terror financing earlier this year, just ahead of a plenary meeting of the FATF. This followed years of claims by Pakistan that Mir was dead, an issue highlighted by one of the two intelligence officials who made the briefings. The terror-financing watchdog removed Pakistan from its grey list last week after more than four years.

In his presentation before the CTC, senior Intelligence Bureau officer Safi Rizvi said without naming Pakistan: “The FATF grey-listing of a troublesome jurisdiction and UN designation of Jaish-e-Mohammad [in 2001] and Lashkar-e-Taiba [in 2005] as well as nine India focused terrorist individuals have been able to create an impact by bringing down attacks on hard targets in Kashmir, reduction of terror bases across the border, open raising of funds and open terror activity between 2018 and mid-2021.”

He specifically mentioned the FATF listing of Pakistan, saying it provided India “a window of relative peace”.

“The FATF, in the last 10 years, has been a very effective tool to implement those very [UN] designations. While there were intelligence-led counter-terrorism operations, Balakot airstrikes [after the Pulwama attack of 2019] and removal of Article 370 from Kashmir which pushed the terror infrastructure in a troublesome jurisdiction [Pakistan], a large portion of the credit goes to FATF grey listing and the UN designation,” Rizvi said.

“In the mid of 2018, there were 600 terror bases across the border, which went down by 75% during FATF listing. This, we think, is the most important success, on account of which the counter-terrorism community should take a deeper look at as to how effective designations are,” he added.

He, however, expressed concerns that Pakistan’s removal from the grey list has already led to an increase in terrorist activity in India. “The moment talks started that grey listing [of Pakistan] is about to end, things have started to slide back. There is an increase in terror bases by 50% and we are expecting more scalable attacks on hard targets, and much more trouble,” Rizvi said.

By hard targets, the officer meant well-defended government establishments and military camps in Kashmir.

Earlier, in a presentation on terrorism, Pankaj Thakur, joint secretary in the home ministry, said the Mumbai attackers were trained in Muzaffarabad in June-August 2008 and were given motivational speeches by LeT chief Hafiz Saeed and operations commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi.

The attackers were also trained at Muridke near Lahore for two months in matters such as hostage-taking. In September 2008, they received marine training, including GPS-based navigation. When they infiltrated Mumbai, the attackers remained in constant touch with their LeT handlers through VoIP phone. Among the key conspirators was an ISI official identified only as Major Iqbal, Thakur said.

Thakur played the audio of Sajid Mir, in which the LeT operative responsible for surveillance of the targets in Mumbai, can be heard giving instructions to terrorists who were at Chabad House. He said a proposal for sanctioning Mir at the UN Security Council was on hold.

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The Ministers reviewed mutual efforts to respond to the worsening humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and assessed its broader implications. They urged an immediate cessation of hostilities. The Ministers unequivocally condemned civilian deaths. They underscored that the contemporary global order has been built on the UN Charter, respect for international law, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.

On Quad

Recalling the inaugural virtual Quad Leaders’ Summit in March 2021, the in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit in September 2021 in Washington, the February 2022 Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Melbourne, and looking forward to the next Quad Leaders’ Summit in Tokyo in 2022, the Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific in which the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states are respected, and countries are free from military, economic, and political coercion.

They further reaffirmed their dedication to promoting regional stability and prosperity, with an inclusive regional architecture, abiding by the rule of law, the freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, and ASEAN centrality. They also reiterated the importance of adherence to international law to meet challenges to the rules-based order, including in the South China Sea.

Science, Technology, Cybersecurity, and Space

Reflecting on the positive science and technology cooperation between the two countries, the Ministers welcomed the announcement of a Joint Commission Meeting on Science and Technology in 2022, to discuss future science and technology collaboration.

The Ministers applauded the recent and upcoming meetings of the India-U.S. Cyber Dialogue and the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Working Group to deepen cybersecurity cooperation. They strongly condemned ransomware and other cyber-related crimes and recognized the need to bolster protection of critical networks and infrastructure.

Recalling their countries’ strong tradition of space exploration and endeavors, the Ministers announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness and pledged to expand bilateral space cooperation, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment. They applauded the ongoing development of the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite, planned for launch from India in 2023. The NISAR mission will collect data vital to tackling the climate crisis. The Ministers also looked forward to the convening of the next India-U.S. Civil Space Joint Working Group in 2022.

On UNSC Permanent Membership

The United States congratulated India for its significant contributions as a member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the term 2021-2022. In this context, the United States expressed its appreciation for India’s leadership as the Chair of the three Committees of the Security Council: the 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee, the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and the 1373 Counter Terrorism Committee.

The Ministers reiterated their commitment to work together in close coordination at the UNSC and in international organizations. The United States reaffirmed its continued support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UNSC and for India’s entry to the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group.

On Afghanistan

The Ministers called on the Taliban to abide by UNSC Resolution 2593 (2021), which demands that Afghan territory must never again be used to threaten or attack any country or to shelter or train terrorists, or to plan or finance terrorist attacks. The Ministers urged the Taliban to adhere to these and all other commitments; respect the human rights of all Afghans, including women, children, and members of minority groups; and uphold freedom of travel. They also emphasized the importance of an inclusive Afghan government and unhindered access for the United Nations and its implementing partners to deliver humanitarian assistance. The Ministers recommitted to close consultations on Afghanistan to help facilitate an inclusive and peaceful future for all Afghans.

Counterterrorism

The Ministers welcomed the convening of the 18th Meeting of the India-U.S. Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and the 4th Session of the India-U.S. Designations Dialogue in October 2021. The Ministers strongly condemned any use of terrorist proxies and cross-border terrorism in all its forms and called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attack, and Pathankot attack, to be brought to justice. They called for concerted action against all terrorist groups, including groups proscribed by the UNSC 1267 Sanctions Committee, such as al-Qa’ida, ISIS/Daesh, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), and Hizb ul Mujahideen. The Ministers called on Pakistan to take immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks. The Ministers committed to continued exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, countering violent radicalism, use of the Internet for terrorist purposes, and cross-border movement of terrorists. The Ministers also emphasized the importance of upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations.

The Ministers also reaffirmed their support for the early adoption of a UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) that advances and strengthens the framework for global cooperation and reinforces that no cause or grievance justifies terrorism.

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The two sides discussed free and open Indo-Pacific, the ongoing war in Ukraine and counter terrorism cooperation. Discussions also included the developments in the Indian subcontinent (Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Pakistan’s political chaos).

The readouts released by the both sides did not mention India speaking about China directly. However, the US Secretary of Defence did mention China directly. At the 2+2 meeting he said, “The People’s Republic of China is seeking to refashion the region and the international system more broadly in ways that serve its authoritarian interests. But as we operationalise our defence agreements and take our cooperation to the next level, I believe that we can sustain and strengthen a favourable balance of power in the region.”

In focus was building a resilient, regional security architecture.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke about the growing depth and scale of defence partnership. He highlighted how India’s defence supplies from USA has reached $20 billion.

The Ministers reaffirmed the vital role of secure, resilient, reliable, and diverse supply chains for Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET), and the need to enable regional and global innovation. The Ministers decided to put in place a framework to advance cooperation in CET such as advanced communication technology, artificial intelligence, quantum science, STEM, semi-conductors and biotechnology.

Recalling their countries’ strong tradition of space exploration and endeavors, the Ministers announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness and pledged to expand bilateral space cooperation, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment. They applauded the ongoing development of the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite, planned for launch from India in 2023. The NISAR mission will collect data vital to tackling the climate crisis. The Ministers also looked forward to the convening of the next India-U.S. Civil Space Joint Working Group in 2022.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022.

They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India.

The Ministers committed to continued exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, countering violent radicalism, use of the Internet for terrorist purposes, and cross-border movement of terrorists. The Ministers also emphasized the importance of upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations.

Recognizing the importance of protecting cultural heritage, the Ministers committed to work toward negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding that will deepen cooperation in this area and assist authorities in combatting the trade in cultural artifacts and facilitating their repatriation.

Defense and Security

The Ministers commended the significant and continuing progress in the India-U.S. Major Defense Partnership. Drawing on the momentum from the India-U.S. Defense Policy Group meeting in October 2021, they reaffirmed their ambitions for building an advanced and comprehensive defense partnership in which the U.S. and Indian militaries coordinate closely together across all domains.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022. They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

As information-sharing forms an important pillar of the India-U.S. defense cooperation, the Ministers underlined the importance of building a comprehensive framework under which our militaries are equipped to exchange information in real time across domains. The Ministers welcomed progress made toward full implementation of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) to support the exchange of geospatial information. The Ministers noted that information exchange and placement of liaison officers in each other’s military organizations will spur joint service cooperation between our militaries to support integrated and multi-domain cooperation.

Acknowledging that their navies have been a driving force in advancing the United States and India’s shared interests in the Indian Ocean Region and the wider Indo-Pacific, the Ministers discussed opportunities to further advance and deepen maritime cooperation, including in underwater domain awareness.

The United States also welcomed India’s decision to join the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force as an Associate Partner to expand multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean. The Ministers lauded the 2022 Indo-Pacific Military Health Exchange, which India and the United States co-hosted to bring together experts from 38 countries to discuss challenges and solutions to military medical issues. Both sides look forward to India’s co-hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC) and Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) in 2023.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of regular bilateral and multilateral exercises, including the MALABAR exercise with inclusion of Australia, the tri-service TIGER TRIUMPH exercise, the multilateral MILAN naval exercise, the bilateral YUDH ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR Army exercises, the bilateral COPE India air exercise, and Indian participation in RED FLAG. They supported increasing the scope and complexity of these exercises. They looked forward to deepening cooperation between the Special Forces of both countries.

Recognizing the importance of building robust private industry collaboration, the Ministers welcomed ongoing projects under the auspices of the India-U.S. Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), including a project agreement to co-develop Air-Launched UAVs. They called on both sides to consider additional DTTI projects, such as a counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS) system and an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform. They also lauded the rapid growth in bilateral defense trade over the past decade.

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India. To further enhance defense industrial cooperation in the naval sector, both sides agreed to explore possibilities of utilizing the Indian shipyards for repair and maintenance of ships of the U.S. Maritime Sealift Command (MSC) to support mid-voyage repair of U.S. Naval ships.

Military Tech Cooperation Document

India has shared a document with the US outlining emerging areas where military technology cooperation can be undertaken by the two nations and specialised teams are likely to conduct visits in the coming weeks to take the proposals forward. US defence companies, including those which met Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, are also likely to invest in India. India’s commitment to self-dependence has been received well.

Major US arms manufacturer Raytheon is likely to invest $100 million in setting up production and research facilities in India, while Boeing is exploring the possibility of creating a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul hub for systems like the P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft that are used by both nations. Plans by Raytheon could result in the creation of over 2,000 jobs in India.

Co-production of military systems was a key component of the talks, with emerging technology areas including artificial intelligence, cyber defence and space cooperation on the table. “There is now a clear understanding by both sides that jointly working on futuristic technologies is the way forward. It’s a major step above a simple buyer-seller relationship,” officials said.

The Indian side also pitched its shipyards for upcoming purchases planned by the US Coast Guard, showcasing their capability to deliver low cost, high quality products as well as a proven track record on delivery.

US teams are also expected to visit India soon to take forward a proposal to utilise Indian shipyards for repair and overhaul of American warships in the region. Such an arrangement, where US warships can be quickly turned around at Indian facilities, would be a key signal on the level of strategic partnership achieved.

“Closer military-military cooperation, increased engagement, information sharing and possible joint patrolling were discussed, with a focus on high end technology sharing,” officials added.

On the strategic front, the security scenario in the Indo-Pacific was discussed, with both sides sharing their commitment to peace and open access to all. The importance of the Quad initiative was appreciated during the talks and enhanced cooperation discussed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is likely to visit the remaining quad nations — Japan and Australia — in the coming months.

On the Russia front, officials said that India’s position on the matter was explained in detail and has been understood by the US.

Comments

The India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, held amid the Russia-Ukraine war, has ticked all the bilateral boxes, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to enhancing defence and strategic cooperation in various domains, including relatively new ones such as space, artificial intelligence and cyberspace.

The US has reiterated its support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council and New Delhi’s induction into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). India is keen to join the elite club whose members are entitled to hassle-free procurement of supplies from international markets for building and operating nuclear reactors, but China has been playing spoilsport in league with Pakistan. As of now, India’s N-push is powered by initiatives under the India-US Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group. Timely transfer of technology holds the key to a mutually beneficial strategic partnership, particularly in defence and energy sectors. India and the US need to redouble efforts to get the best results on this front.

Both countries are on the same page when it comes to envisioning a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and turning Quad into a formidable force that can make a lasting impact beyond its multilateral framework. With a new government set to take charge in Pakistan, it is significant that the troubled and troublesome country finds a mention in the joint statement. The ministers have called on Pakistan to take ‘immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks’. A similarly strong message has been conveyed to Afghanistan’s rulers, the Taliban. All in all, the dialogue makes it clear that India and the US will continue to give precedence to their common strategic interests, irrespective of geopolitical upheaval anywhere in the world.

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Imran Khan, who was elected as the 22nd prime minister of the country, on 18 August 2018, lost a no-confidence vote in the parliament and, on 11 April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif took oath as Pakistan’s new prime minister. Pakistan’s general elections are due in 2023. Hence, Sharif has just a year in office.

Since its formation 75 years ago, the country has had democratically elected governments for only 53 years. In these 53 years, 19 men and one woman have been prime minister, two of them more than once, and not a single one has ever completed a five-year term. The first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, lasted the longest—four years and 63 days—before he was assassinated.

In his first speech at the national assembly as prime minister, Sharif brought up Kashmir. Claiming that the valley was red with the blood of the Kashmiri people since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, he said that Pakistan would continue to “raise its voice for Kashmiri brothers and sisters at every forum…they will be provided diplomatic support, we will give them moral support”.

This is as per formula. No Pakistani prime minister can start off without making some belligerent noises about Kashmir. He cannot afford to be seen as being moderate on this issue.

No matter how hard Pakistan’s politicians try to equate India and Pakistan, India is light years ahead of Pakistan economically, technologically, and on every sociological parameter. If the world ever thinks of Pakistan, it is as a hub of Islamist terrorism.

Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who allegedly played a big part in Khan’s removal, also seems pragmatic, if one goes by his public utterances. “Pakistan will benefit if we improve ties with India,” he said recently. In February last year, he agreed to a ceasefire on the Line of Control and the ceasefire has held. He perhaps realizes that a military engagement with India makes no sense for Pakistan, given the many other problems the country faces.

Pakistan’s powerful military has traditionally controlled foreign and defence policy, thereby limiting the impact of political instability. India is aware of the dynamic of civil-military imbalance in Pakistan and the risk of blowback from the military establishment against India whenever there is momentum for bilateral cooperation.

Pakistan’s Economy

Pakistan’s current account deficit is around 4 per cent of GDP. Pakistan owes $122 billion—a third of its GDP—to various multilateral organisations and nations like China and Saudi Arabia. Foreign currency reserves, already depleted, seem to be now in free fall—in March, they dropped 30 percent from $16.2 billion to $11.3 billion. Interest rates are 12.25 per cent.

Terrorism

The number of terror attacks—and attacks on security forces—by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban, has actually increased since Imran Khan, the army and the ISI celebrated the (original) Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August last year.

The TTP has strong links with the Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and has the tacit support of the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan remains on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money-laundering and terrorist-financing watchdog, precariously perched above the black list. After the 2+2 meeting between the defence and external affairs ministers of India and the US, on 12 April, the two countries issued a joint statement asking Pakistan to take “immediate, sustained, and irreversible action” to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attack and the 2016 Pathankot attack to be brought to justice.

Afghanistan

Ties between Pakistan’s ISI and the Afghan Taliban have loosened in recent years. The Taliban government is facing an economic and humanitarian crisis due to a lack of money and international isolation.

Tensions have risen between the Taliban and Pakistan’s military, which has lost several soldiers in attacks close to their mutual border. Pakistan wants the Taliban to do more to crack down on extremist groups and worries they will spread violence into Pakistan. That has begun to happen already.

Imran Khan, who was less critical of the Taliban over human rights than most foreign leaders, is no longer there to support the Taliban.

China-Pakistan

The only piece of good news for them seems to be that China has reiterated that it considers Pakistan an “all-weather strategic cooperation partner” and “iron-clad brother” and praised Sharif’s commitment to the $60-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

The CPEC was actually conceptualised and launched under Pakistan’s two established political parties, both against Khan. Shehbaz Sharif struck deals with China directly as leader of the eastern province of Punjab. Sharif will defend and push the corridor.

United States-Pakistan

Pakistan is not a priority for President Joe Biden, who is grappling with the war in Ukraine, unless it led to mass unrest or rising tensions with India. Since the military calls the shots on the policies that the U.S. really cares about, i.e. Afghanistan, India and nuclear weapons, internal Pakistani political developments are largely irrelevant for the U.S. Khan had blamed the United States for the current political crisis, saying that Washington wanted him removed because of his Moscow trip.

India-Pakistan

Imran Khan’s ambition was to normalise relations with India and play cricket. Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa also spoke about burying the past and focusing on geo-economy. Kashmir is a core issue in its National Security Policy, though Pakistan has tied itself in knots over it, especially after India annulled Article 370. In August 2019, following the approval of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill in Parliament, which revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, further tension resulted between the two countries, with Pakistan downgrading diplomatic ties, closing its airspace, and suspending bilateral trade with India.

Pakistan, today, is desperate to begin a formal dialogue with India which ceased in January 2013 after the beheading of an Indian soldier in J&K. Islamabad is also pressing New Delhi to participate even virtually in the SAARC summit, in abeyance since 2016. India is not budging. India is inflexible and has taken the position “no talks till cross-border terrorism stops.”

When Khan became the prime minister, while speaking at the United States Institute of Peace, he admitted to Pakistan having 40-50,000 terrorists who had fought in Kashmir and Afghanistan. In 2021, after Khan had called the Modi government ‘fascist, unleashing Islamophobia’, India rebutted: ‘The neighbour is an arsonist disguised as a fire-fighter…’

The current cease-fire on LoC — which does not preclude a two-front situation — is the result of one of the many effective back channels.

On Siachen, speaking at the Army Day 2022 media conference, Army Chief Gen Naravane said that demilitarisation of Siachen was possible once Pakistan agreed to marking the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) on the map. In 1988, 1992 and 2006, the two countries came within a whisker of demilitarisation.

Past Attempts at Normalisation

After inaugurating the new Afghan parliament building in Kabul on 25 December 2015, prime minister Narendra Modi, on the way back, unexpectedly landed in Lahore—the political bastion of prime minister Nawaz Sharif – for Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding. The symbolism of an Indian leader setting foot in Pakistan for the first time in 11 years, was unmissable. It riled the military establishment.

India, under Modi, has vigorously pursued a ‘neighbourhood first’ foreign policy. Modi’s vision is to integrate South Asia into a cooperative common space. The deep state in Pakistan pushed back against the attempted normalization of relations with India. Sharif had been ousted once before in a military coup in 1999 for being a ‘traitor’ who came under Indian pressure to withdraw Pakistani troops during the Kargil War. It was clear that the military-intelligence complex in Pakistan calls the shots and reins in politicians who try to cooperate with India.

Former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had also undertaken a bus journey from Amritsar in India to Lahore in February 1999 and was welcomed with open arms by prime minister Sharif. Vajpayee had hailed it as ‘a defining moment in South Asian history,’ but soon thereafter, the Pakistani military infiltrated into Kargil without Sharif’s knowledge and in the two-and-half-month war that followed, India lost 500 of its troops to throw out the infiiltrators.

By 2020, Sharif was in self-imposed exile. He blamed it on the deep state in Pakistan

The Pakistani jihadi attack on the IAF base at Pathankot, on 1 Januray 2016, was undertaken to derail the nascent Modi–Sharif peace process.

Future Prospects

India and Pakistan announced, in February 2022, an agreement to renew the 2003 ceasefire. India’s escalating military confrontation with China provided reason to try and stabilise the Pakistan frontier. But the continuation depends on Islamabad addressing Delhi’s core concerns on cross-border terrorism.

While Kashmir remains at the top of Pakistan’s agenda, it seems open to reviving commercial ties. It announced an intent to import sugar and cotton from India, but the Commerce Ministry’s decision was ostentatiously reversed by Imran Khan by declaring that “Pakistan can’t trade with India when Kashmir was bleeding”.

Islamabad is stuck with preconditions — reversing India’s constitutional changes in Kashmir — it has set for a renewed dialogue with Delhi.

Not talking to Pakistan has few domestic political costs to Delhi. Pakistan will have to lift the preconditions for engagement with India. Gen. Bajwa’s second term as army chief ends in November 2022 amidst sharpening civil-military differences. A lot will depend upon his successor.

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Over the last several decades, many Wahhabi organisations developed, flourished and survived in India. Most escaped the reach of our agencies and the strategic community, either because of lack of sufficient knowledge or lack of adequate political will to tackle them. The most prominent feature of such organisations is the legal umbrella under which they operate. They often work under the garb of rights ad charity groups, NGOs and religious institutions. However, internally they work to radicalise the demography selected by them, which is across faiths. This leads to polari sation, fuels hatred and causes germination of fundamentalist terrorist ideologies. A sophisticated network of organisations managed to thrive despite the heavy machinery of the Indian state.

Case of So-called Charities

The role of external support to such organisations is the most potent driving factor in the spread of radical ideologies in India. For instance, the import of Saudi endorsed hard-line Wahhabi ideology in the 1980s sprouted the seed of extremism in the Kashmir Valley. In the most recent example, the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based organisation, came across a massive cache of documents associated with Qatar-based Sheikh Eid Bin Mohammad Al Thani Charitable Association, also referred to as Eid Charity. It is claimed that Eid Charity, perhaps out of ignorance of the nature of the donees, funnelled millions of dollars since 2008-09 into India, funding organisations associated with the Wahhabi school of thought that is in fact antithetical to Islam. Eid Charity came under global scrutiny in 2013 when one of its founders, Abd Al-Rahman al-Nu’aymi, was named as Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGTs) by the US Department of Treasury. He was sanctioned for providing financial and material support to Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Somalia. The association also works with other charity groups in Qatar, such as Qatar Charity and Foundation Sheikh Thani Ibn Abdullah for Humanitarian Services (RAF). Donations made by these are under investigation in the US and elsewhere. Qatar needs to avoid falling into the FATF “Grey List” in the manner that its close allies Pakistan and Turkey have.

Investigation of documents revealed over 1,200 transactions made to India either directly under the name of Eid Charity or through individualistic contributions. A total of QR 28.492855 million (USD 7.82 million approx.) were transferred to eight organisations in India. The money was distributed for projects ranging from direct financial support within the Muslim community to other religious and community action programs such as building/supporting mosques and building handpumps.

The Kerala-based Salafi Philanthropic Society, registered as Salafi Charitable Trust Narikkuni, received the largest cache of funds, involving around USD 4.9 million between 2008-17. This charity group is run by another Qatar-based charity group mentioned earlier, RAF. The RAF is run by a royal family member of Qatar and was black-listed for terror financing by Arab nations in 2017. The Foundation has serious charges levied against it, including funding Al Qaeda affiliated groups Al Nusra in Syria and arming Muslim-Brotherhood-backed fighters in Sudan. It denies such charges.

A large part of the money received by Salafi Charitable Trust was meant to be directed towards individual financial assistance within the poor Muslim population. Money was also given for projects such as countrywide distribution/promotions of Hijab. Dr Hussain Madavoor runs the trust as its chairman. He is one of Kerala’s most prominent religious figures and vice president of one of Kerala’s largest faith-based organisations, Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen (KNM), which has tried to project itself as a progressive group over the years.

In a video message posted on Facebook in 2018, Dr Madavoor supported Peace Education Foundation and its founder and managing director, M.M. Akbar. Peace Education Foundation has been on the radar of security agencies since 2016 when it came to public notice that several ISIS recruits from Kerala had an association with the foundation. Akbar is known for his controversial speeches and is often called “Zakir Naik of Kerala”, another Islamic preacher absconding from India on terrorism and money laundering charges. Akbar was arrested in 2017 while trying to fly to Qatar on the charges of radicalising school children through alleged radical content in Peace-funded schools.

In an audio message released by ISIS-KP, Abdul Rashid Abdullah, the mastermind behind the ISIS module in Kerala and former employee at Peace Foundation, claimed that there are ISIS supporters among the teachers and parents of Peace schools. He also alleged that during a public interview, the group tried to conceal the identity of at least two former employees of Peace Foundation who travelled to Afghanistan to join ISIS-KP.

During our investigation, it was found that Eid Charity funded an organisation named Peace Education Centre. It is hard to ascertain the identity of this organisation, which almost received all the funds in the name of financial support to an orphanage. However, the only possible link could be with the Peace Education Foundation mentioned above, which runs several educational and charitable institutions for orphans. If Peace Education Foundation received money from Eid Charity, it would be the most direct evidence of Eid Charity funding organisations in India that are alleged to be involved in radicalisation activities.

Eid Charity’s second-largest reserve of funds to India is transferred in the name of Symposium Educational Charitable Society. This organisation received around USD 2.01 million, yet our investigation disclosed no traces of any organisation with such a name in the public domain. Following the transactions, it came into notice that the money was transferred for projects mainly in the Siddharthnagar district of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. A large sum of this money was given to Al-Farooq Group based in the Itwa area of the district. This group is directly funded by Eid Charity and is known for its dismissive stand against Sufi Islam, which is widely practised in India. The Itwa area also harbours other organisations with foreign backing, propagating fundamentalist Wahhabi interpretations that are intolerant towards non-Wahhabi Muslim sects.

Another organisation named Al Safa Educational, Industrial and Islamic Charitable Society received funds from Eid Charity. Another controversial preacher runs it from Kerala, Maulana Sheikh Meraj Rabbani, who was also arrested in 2010 over hate speech against other Muslim sects, including Barelvis and Sufis. Rabbani was also amongst several radical preachers in Kerala whose speeches allegedly aided the radicalisation of ISIS recruits. Rabbani is also involved in a high-profile Heera Gold fraud case, where he is alleged to have urged people to invest in a Ponzi scheme.

Most interestingly, a large amount of Eid Charity money is transferred to Al Safa in the name of supporting the operation of the Salafi Charitable Trust mentioned above. It shows that money from Qatar is circulated within these Salafist organisations. Many groups may only exist to work as proxy organisations to escape the scrutiny of law enforcement agencies and tax regulatory bodies. This could also be true since other recipients in the Eid Charity list, such as Al-Habib Educational and Charitable Foundation and Relevance Charitable Foundation, are publicly ghost, and our investigation couldn’t find any traces of their existence. These groups may be shell organisations, the most common practice amongst institutions funding global extremism and radicalisation.

Sowing Seeds of Extremism

The whole investigation shows that this funding mechanism has evolved and acquired a sophisticated form over the last several years. The non-uniformity of transactional patterns makes it almost impossible to ascertain the actual purpose for these funds. The money comes under small heads for small-scale undertakings, which are extremely hard to trace and makes it almost impossible to link this money with any nefarious anti-national activity. Most of these organisations have almost no online and popular media presence. Our investigation also couldn’t find any public records of using these funds or any social media promotion of any of the projects, a standard practice of other mainstream charity groups.

Another major cause of concern is the financial support for certain organisations in Kerala. Over the past years, this southern state of India has become the hub of radicalisation and recruitment ground for several transnational extremist groups. Some organisations in Kerala have constantly been accused of supporting violent extremism, and several ISIS recruits from the state have been associated and radicalised through them. Banned Kerala-based Islamist terror groups such as the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and groups like Popular Front of India (PFI) have used hardcore teachings to radicalise youth and recruitment. The fact that raises alarm is that these transactions also match the period when radicalisation and extremist trends in Kerala acquired a steeper trajectory. India has a rich history of progressive Islamic practices for centuries, and an external targeted design promoting extremism could disrupt the social fabric and become problematic for India’s national integrity. The recent decision by Government of India to tighten the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) is a welcome step in this direction. However, much more comprehensive tracking of suspect organisations is needed at the grass-roots level. Indian security and strategic community need to build a holistic approach to eradicate such networks, including through extensive involvement of civil society. Authorities in Qatar need to be made aware that without their knowledge or involvement, the kingdom may follow Turkey and Pakistan on the FATF grey list, given the extensive international investigation into the doings of several of its citizens.

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The Pakistani Government is racing to approve multiple bills to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing—and fulfill a 27-point plan of the global watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF). With 13 remaining conditions and an eye on the mid-October deadline, Pakistan hopes to avoid a demotion from the FATF’s grey list to the black list, joining countries such as Iran and North Korea.

Over the last two years, Pakistan has made progress by fulfilling fourteen of the criteria required by the FATF, such as developing an integrated database at airports for enhanced coordination across financial, administrative, and law enforcement agencies, and establishing successful outreach and regulatory safeguards aimed at countering terrorist financing within the country’s financial sector.

In recent months, Pakistan has taken some major steps under the plan, by which the country will allow no foreign currency transactions without a national tax number and ban currency changes of up to $500 in the open currency market without the sides submitting a copy of their identification documents.

Anti-Money Laundering Bill

Pakistan’s parliament, on 16 September, passed an anti-money laundering legislation, which was a key demand from the FATF.

According to the Anti-Terrorism Act (Amendment) Bill, 2020, the investigating officer, with the permission of the court, can conduct covert operations to detect terrorism funding, track communications and computer system by applying latest technologies in 60 days.

ALSO READ: Pakistan Minister admits Islamabad’s role in Pulwama terror attack

In addition to the money laundering bill, Pakistan has also proscribed several militant groups and seized their assets, including Jamaat ud Dawah and Jaish-e-Mohammad – the groups blamed for several terrorist attacks such as the 2009 deadly Mumbai attacks killing over 150 people.

Earlier in 2020, an anti-terrorism court sentenced Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, the chief of the Jamaat ud Dawah, to 11 years in jail in two terror-financing cases – a development widely seen as an attempt to woo FATF members.

Assets of Banned Organisations Frozen

Pakistan’s provincial home departments have frozen 964 properties of proscribed outfits Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), under the United Nations Security Council (Freezing and Seizure) Order, 2019 issued by the foreign affairs ministry.

A total of 611 properties of JuD were frozen in Punjab, followed by 108 in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, 80 in Sindh, 61 in ‘Azad’ Jammu & Kashmir, 30 in Balochistan and 17 in Islamabad Capital Territory.

Similarly, eight properties of JeM were frozen in Punjab, 29 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 12 in ‘Azad’ Jammu & Kashmir, four in Islamabad Capital Territory, three in Sindh and one in Balochistan.

The frozen properties of the JuD include 76 schools, four colleges, 330 mosques and seminaries, 186 dispensaries, 15 hospitals, 262 ambulances, a funeral bus, three disaster management offices, 10 boats, 17 buildings, a plot, an agricultural land and two motorcycles.

The properties of the JeM frozen by the government include 53 mosques and seminaries, two dispensaries and two ambulances.

About the FATF

The FATF, an inter-governmental body, was established in 1989 on the initiative of G7—a coalition of the world’s most developed economies – to develop policies to combat money laundering. Currently, it has 39 members. The FATF plenary that meets thrice a year, can monitor money laundering and terror financing anywhere in the world involving any country and make recommendations.

According to the FATF, it monitors the progress in implementing necessary measures, reviews money laundering and terrorist financing techniques and countermeasures and promotes the adoption and implementation of appropriate measures globally. In collaboration with other international stakeholders, the FATF works to identify national-level vulnerabilities with the aim of protecting the international financial system from misuse.

ALSO READ: Pakistan Going in Reverse Direction

In the FATF back-listing is referred to as “Call for action” which is a shorthand for the Task Force’s description of “Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories. “(NCCT). While the “grey list” is formally called the “other monitored-jurisdictions.” Pakistan has been in this list for over seven years, in two phases. It was put on the FATF grey list from 2012 to 2015 and then again from 2018 up till now. The blacklist makes it very difficult for a country to get international aid and funding that Pakistan desperately needs. And though the list gets updated regularly, its two virtually permanent members are Iran and North Korea.

Challenges Ahead

The FATF found that Pakistan lacks the necessary mechanisms to ensure that taxpayer money is not going to terrorist organizations, and that Islamabad was unable to monitor cash flow to these groups. 

Pakistan’s status on the FATF grey list inevitably impacts the country’s ability to attract foreign investors. This is incredibly important in the current economic climate of the pandemic where there are serious barriers to economic growth globally. Moreover, Pakistan’s grey list status could impact imports, exports, remittances, and its ability to borrow money from international lenders, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the near future.

Way Forward

Pakistan has since twice escaped being placed on the watchdog’s financial crime blacklist with the support of Turkey, China, and Malaysia. According to the FATF charter, a country must have the support of at least three member states to avoid blacklisting.

To avoid being blacklisted by the FATF, Pakistan will have to demonstrate the effectiveness of sanctions including remedial actions to curb terrorist financing in the country; it will have to ensure improved effectiveness for terror financing of financial institutions with particular to banned outfits.

Pakistan Admits to Dawood’s Presence

For the first time Pakistan has admitted that India’s most wanted terrorist Dawood Ibrahim, is residing in Pakistan. The admission came in a list of 88 banned terror groups disclosed as part of its efforts to wriggle out of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) financial sanctions. The Pakistan government has imposed tough financial curbs on 88 banned terror groups and their leaders including the 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed, Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar and underworld don Dawood Ibrahim.

The Pakistani government issued two notifications on August 18 announcing sanctions on key figures of terror outfit. Ibrahim is among the 88 terrorists listed in a Statutory Regulatory Order by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign affairs. Dawood’s details are provided under serial no. QDi.135, as in the UNSC list of sanctions, and gives out all his details including his passport numbers, and address in Clifton, Karachi.

The notifications imposed sweeping sanctions, including an assets freeze, arms embargo, and travel ban on the on key figures of terror outfits such as the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), JeM, Taliban, Daesh, Haqqani Group, al-Qaeda, and others as part of Pakistan’s efforts to avoid being blacklisted by the FATF.

On August 23, the Pakistan Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressly stating that the SROs (Statutory Regulatory Orders) issued reflect the information contained in the list entry of UN designated individuals/entities. It said the reports in certain sections of the media about Pakistan imposing new sanctions measures, through these SROs, were not factual.

Pulwama Attack Perpetrators Charged

On 25 August 2020, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed a 5,000-page charge-sheet in a special NIA Court in Jammu, naming Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar and his brother Rauf Asghar as the masterminds behind the terror attack of 14 February 2019.

On 14 February 2019, a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy came under attack by a suicide bomber, employed by Pakistan-based Jaish. Terrorist Abdul Ahmad Dar rammed the convoy on Srinagar highway triggering an explosion and leaving 40 soldiers dead. 

The 13,500-page long charge-sheet identifies 19 people for carrying out the attack at Pakistan’s behest. Six of the 19 have been eliminated, seven have been arrested. At large are the three brothers across the border and three local terrorists. The charge-sheet is replete with evidence (phone calls, recordings, WhatsApp chats and photos) to incriminate the accused in the attack.

The Charge-sheet details how Pulwama attack was a result of a well-planned criminal conspiracy hatched by Pakistan-based leadership of terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammad.

The NIA charge-sheet reportedly names 20 accused, including some key Jaish-e-Mohammad conspirators:

•             Adil Ahmed Dar. the suicide bomber who rammed the CRPF convoy.

•             Umer Farooq. Jaish commander who oversaw the execution of the attack and who assembled the bomb used in the attack. He was killed in an encounter in March 2020 along with another bomb-making expert, Kamran.

•             Shakir Bashir Magrey. He allegedly drove the car used in the attack but got off around 500 meters from the attack site. He was also involved in procuring materials and in monitoring the movement of security convoys.

•             Mohammed Iqbal Rather. He facilitated transport to pick up Pak-based terrorists and brought them into Kashmir.

•             Bilal Ahmed Kuchey. Allegedly procured high-end mobile phones for Jaish, one of which was used to record a video as Adil Ahmed Dar slammed his vehicle into the CRPF convoy.

This was the chronology of the attack. Mohammed Umer Farooq infiltrated in India in late 2018 from the Sambha sector in Jammu region and took over as Jaish-e-Mohammad commander of Pulwama. RDX was brought by the Pakistani terrorists who infiltrated into India, and was stocked by another accused, Shakir Bashir, at his house for making the IED in January 2019. Farooq, along with his Pakistani friends, planned and prepared for the attack on security forces using IEDs. Shakir Bashir, Insha Jan, Peer Tariq Ahmad Shah and Bilal Ahmad Kuchey provided all logistics and sheltered the JeM terrorists in their houses. Sajjad Ahmad Bhat purchased a Maruti Eeco car for the purpose of carrying out the IED attack,which was driven by Bashir initially before he handed it over to Dar. Towards the end of January 2019, Mohammad Umar Farooq, Sameer Dar and Adil Dar made the propaganda video clip of the suicide attack at Insha Jan’s house which was released immediately after the attack.

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“The Pakistani establishment has to prove that it is serious about dismantling the terror-funding infrastructure, which is possible only by ensuring that cases against the key figures and organisations involved in raising funds and masterminding terror attacks attain finality and such elements are punished. Given that no such concrete steps are being taken, we need to flag the issue,” said a government official.

About a month ago, the National Investigation Agency arrested an alleged Jaish-e-Mohammad conduit for providing shelter and logistical support to those involved in the attack. The NIA said the accused named Bilal Ahmed Kuchey had arranged phones for the conspirators to facilitate their communication with Pakistan-based handlers and also prepare a video clip of the attack. The agency has so far arrested seven persons in the case

Another case pertains to the 26/11 Mumbai attacks carried out by the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in 2008, in which six U.S. citizens were killed. “The United States has also repeatedly asked Pakistan to bring four accused persons, Mazhar Iqbal, Sajid Mir, Abu Qahafa and Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed, to justice,” said the official. A case against seven accused, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, has been pending before a Pakistan anti-terror court since 2009. Top LeT figures like Hafiz Saeed were never arraigned.

The Daniel Pearl abduction and murder case has also not attained finality in terms of action against those involved. “About 18 years ago, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and three others were convicted. However, on April 2, the Sindh High Court overturned it and reduced the death sentence to seven years in jail, effectively setting him free. His accomplices, who were sentenced to life, were also acquitted,” the official said.

The Sindh government appealed in the Supreme Court, which in July refused to suspend the High Court’s judgment and deferred the hearing to September 22. “The likelihood of bringing in fresh and compelling evidence or highlighting serious flaws in the High Court ruling now appears to be remote,” the official said.

Source

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The FATF meeting was held a week after an anti-terrorism court in Pakistan sentenced Hafiz Saeed, the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attack and founder of the LeT, to 11 years in two terror financing cases.

Pakistan should demonstrate that law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are identifying and investigating the widest range of terror funding activities and that terror funding investigations and prosecutions target designated persons and entities, and those acting on behalf or at the direction of the designated persons or entities and demonstrate effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all UN-designated terrorists and those acting for or on their behalf, including preventing the raising and moving of funds, identifying and freezing assets and prohibiting access to funds and financial services, the FATF said.

The FATF Plenary noted that till now, Pakistan has largely addressed 14 of 27 action items, with varying levels of progress made on the rest of the action plan. It strongly directed Pakistan to swiftly complete its full action plan by June 2020. Failure to take steps towards prosecuting and penalising terror funding by the next plenary, the FATF will take action, which could include the FATF calling on its members and urging all jurisdictions to advise their financial institutions to give special attention to business relations and transactions with Pakistan.

Grey List

The grey list categorisation means that the so-called improvement in Islamabad’s attitude on terrorism was being noted, but clearly it was far from enough. The improvement essentially lay in the Pakistan government taking over scores of seminaries that preach the terrorism gospel. FATF called for further action to show Pakistan’s commitment to deal with terror funding and money-laundering for terrorist purposes.

The United States was instrumental in the “grey listing” of Pakistan in June 2018 by the 39-member FATF, overriding stiff resistance from China and Turkey, two of Pakistan’s close allies. Islamabad has been since working on implementing a list of conditions laid down by the watchdog to avoid being bumped up to the blacklist, and, under the most optimistic circumstances, be taken off the grey list altogether.

The FATF

The FATF is a Paris-based international watchdog established in 1989 to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international financial system. It currently has 39 members, including two regional organisations – the European Commission and the Gulf Cooperation Council. India is a member of the FATF consultations and its Asia Pacific Group

India’s Efforts

Although, Pakistan is believed to have received strong backing from Malaysia, it failed to impress western nations due to India’s consistent efforts by providing materials and evidence on Pakistan’s inaction to check funding to terror groups operating from its soil.

Indian diplomatic channel saw it as a victory for them. The plenary noted that Pakistan addressed only a few of the 27 tasks given to it in controlling funding to terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and the Hizbul Mujahideen, which are responsible for a series of attacks in India. India has been maintaining that Pakistan extends regular support to terror groups like the LeT, the JeM and the Hizbul Mujahideen, whose prime target is India, and has urged the FATF to take action against Islamabad.

India has been maintaining that Pakistan extends regular support to terror groups like the LeT, the JeM and the Hizbul Mujahideen, whose prime target is India, and has urged the FATF to take action against Islamabad.

Next Course of Action

Pakistan was placed on the ‘Grey List’ by the FATF in June 2018 and was given a plan of action to complete by October 2019 or face the risk of being placed on the ‘Black List’.

In October 2019, FATF did not blackball Pakistan altogether on the terrorism question, placing Islamabad on its “grey” list for a period of another four months till February 2020. Again, at the February 2020 Plenary, the FATF gave an extension of four months to Pakistan to act against organisations involved in terror financing. This was leniency being shown since FATF is currently being chaired by China, which is known to be Pakistan’s all weather ally.

Pakistan’s Cosmetic Steps

An anti-terror court in Lahore in February 2020 sentenced Hafiz Saeed, founder-chief of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the mother outfit of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, and an associate to 11 years of rigorous imprisonment on two counts of terror funding and money-laundering, indicating that it was observing the letter of FATF’s instructions. Saeed, a UN designated terrorist on whom the US has placed a $10 million bounty, was arrested on July 17, 2019, in the terror financing cases.This 69-year-old head of the Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD), and an aide, were both given five-and-a-half year jail terms in two cases of terror financing by an anti-terrorism court in Lahore.

With the FATF threat looming, a court has meted out punishment, at least for the record. Although, years of diplomatic demands by India to proceed against the terrorist mastermind over the Mumbai 26/11 attacks of 2008, in which 166 persons were killed, had produced no results as the Pakistani courts always found the evidence insufficient. This time the Pakistani judiciary was quick in giving its ruling as a negative FATF recommendation could imperil the 2019 IMF bailout package of $6 billion and the economic reforms tied to it.

Whether the rigorous imprisonment meted out to Saeed (LeT) is observed seriously is moot, considering it is Pakistan, where all state agencies are believed to be compromised,  although Saeed has been declared a “global terrorist” by the UN and the US.

Further, the trial of seven people, including LeT operations commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, has floundered in a Pakistani anti-terrorism court for more than a decade with no visible results. Lakhvi was released on bail in April 2015 and his current whereabouts are not known.Pakistani officials have said the trial has not progressed because more evidence and information is required from India, but this claim has been rejected by Indian authorities

On Azhar, Pakistan has told FATF that it could not file an FIR against him since he could not be “found”. However, it is believed that Azhar is in the protective custody of the Pakistan government since 2016 but such reports were not confirmed by authorities. However, he used to release audio messages for his supporters. After Pulwama, he never released any video or audio message and the government also avoided speaking about him and his whereabouts. Since March 2019, government sources claimed several times that he had gone missing

Comments

With Pakistan’s continuation in the ‘Grey List’, it will be difficult for the country to get financial aid from the IMF, the World Bank, the ADB and the European Union, thus further enhancing problems for the nation which is in a precarious economic situation

If Pakistan fails to comply with the FATF directive, there is every possibility that the global body may put the country in the ‘Black List’ along with North Korea and Iran.

Although, FATF has been successful in putting pressure on Pakistan in taking actions to stop terror funding but certain key aspects are left unaddressed.

That being stated, it is in Pakistan’s national interest to prevent it from getting blacklisted. The latter would mean an embargo on all possible international aid it is scheduled to receive and which prove to be detrimental to its economy.

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