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In the case of India, there are strong projections for the Prime Minister Modi to occupy the office again. In India, the general elections are scheduled to be conducted in several phases between 19 April-1 June, 2024. Due to the enormity of the voter population, India’s elections will be held in phases to ensure 970 million voters can cast their votes in a secure environment. In India, Prime Minister Modi is seeking a successive third term. The opposition coalition, INDI alliance, has faced significant turmoil even before it could take off. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party attempted the Bharat jodo yatra, he is able to gather crowds but failed to project himself as a strong prime minister candidate. On the other hand, the incumbent prime minister with the country-wide infrastructure development, scientific advancements, economic restructuring with social development programs, is most likely assured victory in the elections.

The US is due for presidential elections in November 2024. In the US, it is a lengthy stretched process, over a period of two years, with several rounds of debates and elections, even within the parties themselves, for the selection of the presidential candidate. Towards the 2024 elections, after the Super Tuesday, President Trump has emerged as the Republican candidate, and President Biden is a leading Democrat candidate for the upcoming Presidential elections. Nonetheless, no matter who occupies the office in the US, its relationship with India stands on a solid foundation, and there has been bipartisan support for India.

There are several factors, over couple of decades, that catapulted the current momentum for a multidimensional strategic partnership.

Shifting of Nuclear Goal Posts

The upward swing in the US-India relations can be traced to the Clinton administration. Especially, to the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh talkathon, fourteen rounds of talks between 1998-2000, launched in the immediate aftermath of India’s nuclear tests and the resultant sanctions. This unprecedented dialogue led to mutual understanding of the geopolitical concerns of India along with the circumstances caused the “shifting of the nuclear goal posts”. Prior to the talks, Clinton was adamant on India to ‘Cap, rollback and eliminate.’ Later, in 1999, during the Kargil War, he came forth in outright support of India against Pakistan. This was in “stark contrast to the 1971 war, when Washington had situated its nuclear submarines in support of Pakistan.”

Subsequently, in March 2000, Clinton during his state visit and addressing India’s Parliament, affirmed that, “I say this with great respect. Only India can determine its interests.” His visit marked the first visit of a US President in 17 years and “institutionalized a high-level, multi-tiered and multi-faceted dialogue with India.”

Nuclear Agreement

His successor President Bush confronted with the post 9-11 challenges, recognized the dire urgency to engage India in the global counterterrorism and nonproliferation efforts. Bush coined the term ‘Strategic Partnership,’ with India, based on reciprocal obligations to deal with the “multitudinous and complex threats of the post 9/11 world.” Viewed narrowly, in the Cold War perspective, the strategic partnership was mistaken as an alliance to maintain the Asian geopolitical balance of power, specifically directed against China. On the contrary, the Bush Administration wanted to enlist India’s support at a global level for the shaping of the future world order.

Alongside, the landmark US-India collaborative measures, the High Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG) and the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) overcame the nuclear disjuncture, hitherto plaguing the US-India relationship. This enabled the Bush Administration to uproot the nuclear barriers, and the offer of the civilian nuclear technologies based on reciprocal obligations. This helped US-India overcome decades of nuclear estrangement and launch partnership based on strategic interests. In 2010, Obama supported India’s seat in the UNSC as a permanent member recognizing it as ‘indispensable’ partner for the coming century.” Over successive administrations, this created space for the US-India relationship to emerge as “one of equal partners and equal strategic interest.” Thus, in the last couple of decades, this change in approach towards India, can be greatly attributed to the change in Washington’s approach to restructure its own security framework- from region focused to global level.

Modi Factor

This restructuring aligns with Modi’s approach to (re)launch India at the global level to be recognized as a global stakeholder. Towards this, Modi based on his diplomatic craftsmanship with two Democrat and a Republican Presidents, yet three different personas (from Obama to Trump and now, Biden) ignited multi-sectoral comprehensive strategic partnership.

Initially, the Obama Administration seemed to be proceeding cautiously with the so-called Hindu nationalist Modi regime. However, subsequently, in an unprecedented move, recognized India as a “Major Defense Partner.” In 2016, Obama and Modi signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), that allowed the militaries of both countries to use each other’s facilities for refueling and strategic coordination. Especially for India, it was a significant development, as it enhanced India’s maritime prowess and navigation in Indian Ocean, for humanitarian and strategic purposes.

READ MORE : India-US : India, US Set to Deepen Strategic Relationship

In fact, the successive administration, headed by Trump, a Republican, exhibited ‘bromance’ with Modi. This was evident in the Howdy Modi event (Sept 2019), at the NRG stadium (Houston), a joint gathering of diverse groups of officials, businesses, along with gathering of 50,000 Indian diaspora. On the one hand, Trump focused on economic gains, removed India from special trade status from the preferential trade, called the Generalized System of Preferences. Yet, on the other hand, there was significant defense cooperation agreements along with the launching of the Tiger Triumph exercises with New Delhi. The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) agreement granted India access to the advanced communication technology and real time information sharing between the US and India defense agencies. Similarly, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) enabled geospatial information sharing, critical for India to navigate the maritime domain, marks significant strategic cooperation.

Thus, during 2016-2020, the LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA sealed the foundational core for the US-India strategic defense partnership enabling India to obtain critical advanced technologies to strengthen its defense communications, navigation and targeting capabilities.

Modi-Biden

In 2020, with the onset of the Biden Presidency, there were speculations that the ‘bromance’ between US-India would be elusive. Nevertheless, the Biden Administration, moving beyond the narrow geopolitical confines, launched multi-sectoral cooperation with India. Probably because Biden, as former US Secretary of State during the Obama Administration, was aware of the necessity to harness India’s engagement in Washington’s global security framework, beyond the confines of South Asia. This aligned with the India’s strategic vision under the Modi regime as well, as evident in intense collaboration in the varied sectors – ranging from defence (joint production of F414 jet engines), critical emerging technology (iCET,) space exploration (NISAR), cyberspace, semiconductor supply chain, AI and quantum technologies, and 5G/6G telecommunications. Modi and Biden, besides their intense bilateral dialogue, have proactively engaged in multiple triangular and multilateral fora, such as the QUAD, I2U2, G20, etc.

‘Strategic Convergence’ beyond China

Currently, there is a persistent hyper-linkage with the ‘counter-China’ factor. Regardless to say, India’s and the US apprehensions of China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean have contributed to the “strategic convergence” and the urgency “to counter China in the Indo-Pacific Region.” This is visible in the revival of the QUAD, and other Indo-Pacific arrangements. Yet, it is not restricted to this factor alone. Modi is focused on establishing India’s military prowess as well as strategic positioning. This may deter China from military overtures, yet, India will be ready to successfully thwart such attempts, in case the situation arises.

US is clearly aware that India under Modi’s astute leadership, a strong India will handle the China challenge. So, definitely there is a ‘strategic convergence’ of interests, but, this is not a conditional relationship, nor exclusively setting up India to counter China. As Washington is aware that New Delhi will uphold its strategic autonomy and not take dictates regarding its foreign or domestic issues.

It is crucial to overcome the persistent China ‘hangover.’ China is a lingering challenge to both India and the US, but to view their relationship in the narrow confines of the China factor is erroneous. Rather the engagement of India should be viewed as an attempt by Washington to restructuring its foreign and security policy at the global level. Especially, in view of the growing focus on the strategic issues related to Indo-Pacific or the entire Indian Ocean region (covering the Middle East) as well as non-military challenges related to climate change, health, quantum computing, space, clean energy, AI and so on.

READ MORE: Support building in US think tanks against sanctioning India

Due to intense dialogue, since 1998, both official and informal (including policy community, Indian diaspora etc.) there is a greater multi-level, multi-dimensional sense of security partnership established between the two countries. This is the reason that regardless of the occupants of the political office, this symbiotic relationship will strengthen. There is possibility that at times, some issue(s) may emerge to create concerns regarding the internal or external issues related to India. For instance, US representatives expressed concerns on the alleged attacks on the Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, and the recent arrest of the Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal. There may be several reasons for the concerns being raised by Washington. India has handled these charges effectively.

However, besides political relations, multiple channels of communication and dialogue have been established that there may be some wavering but it will be difficult to derail the momentum. Moreover, the US recognizes India’s strategic autonomy and has on several occasions has recognized India’s exceptional stand on certain issues. For example, in 2014, the Obama Administration had categorically warned countries to prohibit trade with Iran. Yet, US realized India’s reliance on oil import from Iran was crucial for the latter’s energy security and simply advised to adhere to global obligations as well.

Thus, to conclude, India-US is a dynamic multidimensional strategic partnership, in several vital areas of defence, space, climate change, critical technologies. Regardless of the incumbents’ post 2024 elections, the US-India relations will forge ahead. As President Biden enthusiastically acknowledged that the US-India relationship, “is among the most consequential in the world, that is stronger, closer, and more dynamic than any time in history.”

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Maj Gen Deepak K Mehta

India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War could be viewed as a tilt towards Russia. To be coveted for support by both sides provided both opportunities and challenges, and could help shape India’s foreign policy postures to deal with the geopolitical turbulence that lies ahead.

The Russia-Ukraine clash made India walk a fine balance between a values-based foreign policy and stark geopolitical compulsions.

India cannot evade the economic impact of rise in prices of oil and several other commodities including agricultural products like refined oil.

US, Russia and China have wooed India to toe their line due to its global geopolitical standing, derived from its geography, size, population, economic and nuclear weapons.

India’s Initial Posture

Amid the Russian attack on Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed for an “immediate cessation of violence” in his phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 Feb 2022 and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue. He expressed his “long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue”, the PMO said.

This was a fine balancing act as it called for “immediate cessation of violence” – something the Western bloc would appreciate.

Earlier, India expressed “regret” – an upgrade from expressing “concern”, but stopped short of condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

One of India’s initial concerns was the Indian community in Ukraine, mostly medical students. Most were helped to leave through land borders in neighbouring countries — Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovak Republic – and many were air-lifted back to India. India also sent humanitarian aid and medical supplies to war-hit Ukraine in the evacuation flights.

External Affairs minister S Jaishankar got calls from the EU’s High Representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. The ambassadors of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) and Ukraine met in Delhi to express solidarity on what they called “Russia’s unjustifiable military aggression”.

UNSC Discussion

India sat on the fence and abstained on two UN Security Council resolutions. India’s abstention gave it the option of reaching out to both sides to find a middle ground as well as ensure the safety of its citizens in Ukraine.

India’s actions and statement during the discussion on United Nations Security Council Resolution, which sought to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, indicate that New Delhi saw it as an issue between NATO and Russia that should be resolved through dialogue. It abstained from the vote saying, “It is a matter of regret that diplomacy was given up. For these reasons, India has chosen to abstain from the resolution.”

There was Western criticism over India’s underwhelming and insufficient response at the UN Security Council to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. response was described as ‘careful, avoid angering Putin at all costs’ which expose its unpreparedness to step up to major power responsibilities or be a dependable partner.

But the fine print of India’s explanation for not voting and PM Modi’s conversation with Vladimir Putin show that India did convey the need for Moscow to step back.

Both at the UNSC and during the Modi-Putin phone call, New Delhi underlined the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations and immediate cessation of violence and hostilities. At the same time, India’s abstention showed its unwillingness to jump on the US bandwagon for a ‘strong collective response’ to the Russian invasion after witnessing the aftermath of previous such responses in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

India’s statement at the UN Security Council, made in an emergency meeting, said, “The Security Council had met two days ago and discussed the situation. We had called for urgent de-escalation of tensions and emphasized on sustained and focused diplomacy to address all issues concerning the situation.”

At the meeting, India’s Permanent Representative at the UN T S Tirumurti said, “However, we note with regret, that the calls of the international community to give time to the recent initiatives undertaken by parties to diffuse tensions were not heeded to.

“The situation is in danger of spiralling into a major crisis. We express our deep concern over the developments, which if not handled carefully, may well undermine the peace and security of the region.” He called for “immediate de-escalation and refraining from any further key to India’s engagements in Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held informal summits with only leaders of two countries — Putin and China’s Xi.

Growing Russia-China Proximity

India is worried about the Russia-China axis too. India is conscious that the hostility between the West and Russia is likely to push Moscow further in the direction of Beijing.

One of the key players which has been cautious in its response to the Ukraine crisis is China which is the real cause of worry for India. China seems to be gaining the most out of the situation.

Russia has carefully scripted an alternative path out, by increasingly courting China bilaterally and also at global forums. China and Russia are both permanent members of the United Nations security council and between them have a bilateral trade relationship of nearly $150 billion. Russia has carefully cultivated China (or vice versa) to develop an alternative “Russian” standard of international payment and settlement system.

What is worrying from India perspective is, the growing dependency of Russia on China for its survival which could turn the tables for India. India has had several decades of warm relationship with Russia, unhampered by regime changes. India’s dependence on Russian military equipment is a well-known fact. Growing proximity between Russia and China is a potential threat for future.

Russia has been calibrated in its statements on issues China is sensitive to, such as Huawei’s 5G rollout, Hong Kong and Covid-19. Beijing and Moscow, however, do not always see eye to eye with each other. China does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and Moscow, formally speaking, takes a neutral stance on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

Is it not possible that China can use Russia-like pluck and revised history to lay claim to large parts of Nepal and march up to the Terai region? What if Russia backs China’s aggression in the future?

Comments

There are no permanent friends nor enemies; only permanent interests. Building cooperative relationships based on common interests will continue to provide the sinews of crafting India’s strategy.

With pressure piling from the western bloc, led by the US, this is a test for New Delhi to make a strategic choice — principles and values on one side, and pragmatism and interests on the other side.

India’s dependence on Russia and the US for strengthening its military preparations can be expected to be leveraged by both Moscow and Washington  to pressurise New Delhi in terms of alignments on issues contested between them.

Strengthening India’s military power is an imperative and not a choice that can depend on foreign policy initiatives or depend on the goodwill of others.

The global chessboard of geopolitics is a mix of issue-based cross-purposes and theatre-specific agendas that often generate asymmetric perceptions. After dragging its feet, fence-sitting on Ukraine, India needs a gameplan.

Modi will have to use all his political and diplomatic skills and continuously navigate between competing US and Russian demands to ensure that India’s interests are protected.

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At UN Security Council, India has abstained on two resolutions on Ukraine in the 15-nation UN Security Council and one in the 193-member UN General Assembly.

In its first statement on the crisis between Russia and the West led by the US over Ukraine, India called for a “peaceful resolution” of the situation through “sustained diplomatic efforts” for “long-term peace and stability” in the region and beyond.

India maintained neutrality during the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014. Alongside 57 nations, India had abstained from the UN Resolution in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea.

The Indian decision to stay neutral has no doubt irked the US, which is seeking to muster global support for its actions. The US has still to announce its decision on sanctions against India for procuring the S-400 missile system from Russia. It continues to keep the sword dangling.

With key strategic partners on both sides, India could not afford any hasty moves hurting its vital stakes.

Almost 60 per cent of India’s military supplies are Russian manufactured, which means it cannot afford to alienate Moscow, particularly at a time when Indian and Chinese troops continue to be in a stand-off on the eastern border.

India has close defence ties with Ukraine. Ukraine is currently involved in upgrading India’s AN-32 fleet as also providing gas turbine engines for naval vessels.

At the same time, the US and Europe, which are pushing back against Russia over Ukraine, are both important partners from India’s strategic calculus. Many American platforms have been used for reconnaissance and surveillance along the India-China border. Winter clothing for 50,000 troops has been sourced from these western strategic partners.

Another concern for Delhi is the small Indian community in Ukraine, of which 18,000 are students in medical colleges.

Imposition of sanctions on Russia will be a headache as Indian procurement of defence equipment and spares continue, apart from other economic activities. Russia is the world’s third largest producer of oil and second largest of natural gas. Most of its supplies are sent to Europe through oil pipelines, some transiting through Ukraine. Currently it supplies one third of Europe’s natural gas and one fourth of its oil. In case of escalation, these would be impacted, enhancing oil prices.

While India has been increasing its parleys with the US and entering into various pacts and alliances with it, Russia has been cementing its ties with China in a bid to be able to better counter US aggressiveness, should the need for doing so arise. For India, the China threat is perceived to be managed well through a strengthening alliance with the US.

Ties between India and Russia would have to navigate through the tortuous ways of the present scenario, seemingly tempestuous dynamics of international politics.

The primary objective of the China-Russia alignment is and will be undermining American power. The US is essential to anchor any effort to balance China. Without this anchor, there is little hope that China’s domination over Asia can be countered. Anything that diminishes the US strengthens China and vice-versa. Russian interests are thus directly contradictory to India’s because the weakening of the American power that Russia desires will strengthen China, much to India’s detriment.

Formal diplomatic positions with China have not shown much difference. Even on the Quad, India still appears the laggard — it refused to even name Quad in public until after the 2020 Galwan clash.

A China-dominated Asian order, which will be the consequence of Moscow’s efforts to undermine the US, can hardly be conducive to India’s strategic autonomy.

All in all, Indian involvement in any form would not yield any positive result. Neutrality is the best option for the current.

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Top diplomatic sources posted in South Block told The Sunday Guardian that the Chinese and Russian diplomats were seen vying with one another to establish contacts with the officials of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan when foreign ministers of these central Asian countries were in Delhi for the third round of India-Central Asia Dialogue hosted by foreign minister Subramanyam Jaishankar 18-20 December.
Carrying the message and orders from their respective leaderships in Moscow and Beijing, these diplomats were actually working on the agenda of expanding the footprints of their countries in the Central Asian region. Highly-placed sources told The Sunday Guardian that “Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to call Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the day the India-Central Asia Dialogue concluded (20 December) and made it a point to reassure the Indian leadership to step up Delhi-Moscow cooperation in the Central Asian region in view of the security threat from Afghanistan.”

Sources said that “Putin was earlier supposed to call the PM on some other date around Christmas, but it was advanced coinciding with the India-Central Asia dialogue”. According to sources, a couple of senior Russian diplomats also met with their counterparts from some of these five countries. Similarly, China is learnt to have chalked out a detailed plan for its foreign minister’s visit to the Central Asian countries sometime next month, sources said. Chinese diplomats are said to have spoken to officials of the five countries regarding the plan in what is being seen as a panic reaction to India’s outreach to the region.

While Russia is keen to expand its influence and presence in the Central Asian region so as to secure its backyard in view of the imminent threat of terrorism from Afghanistan, China is trying to fortify its engagement more for its geopolitical and geo-economic objectives. There is no denying that Beijing is also keeping in mind its rivalry with India in the central Asian region as well.

In the last few months, India has stepped up its engagement with the region. Apart from holding talks with these countries at different levels, India has also invited the presidents of all the five nations as chief guests for the Republic Day Celebrations next month. This is not going down well with China, and the leadership of the country is said to be panicky over this. Sources say that Beijing is pressurizing its diplomats to intensify efforts to score over India in the Central Asian region.

The US is also trying to get back in the region which has assumed major significance since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Moreover, the region is becoming the center of a new great power rivalry due to its huge mineral reserves. Undoubtedly, Russia is an important player in the region. China is also firmly entrenched with its Road and Belt Initiative. Pakistan is also not any less active in the central Asian region, with India keeping a close eye on its activities as well. With all this in view, India has stepped up its outreach to the region which is considered by Delhi as an extended neighborhood.

The concern about ISIS, Al Qaeda and other terror groups taking root and spreading extremist ideology and terrorism is a major issue for Afghan region. “Since India’s experience in tackling terrorism is well-known, these republics want its cooperation in the region to deal with any such security threat,” a diplomat says. “That New Delhi is going all out to woo Central Asian rulers is giving many players sleepless nights,” he added.

But India is determined to increase its outreach to Central Asia with greater vigour. Delhi has decided to hold more bilateral meets in days to come, say diplomats. India has offered to increase the slots for Central Asia in its Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme (ITEC), which has been New Delhi’s hugely successful outreach to developing nations. “No doubt, connectivity to the region is a major issue. But despite that India had been buying uranium for its nuclear power plants from Kazakhstan,” an official said. Referring to the connectivity issue, PM Modi once said, “The land-locked Central Asian countries can benefit immensely by connecting with India’s vast market. Unfortunately, many connectivity options are not open to them today due to lack of mutual trust. Our investment in Iran’s Chabahar port and our efforts towards the International North-South (Transit) Corridor (INSTC) are driven by this reality.”

PM Modi also visited all five central Asian countries in July 2015 in what underlined India’s emphasis on strengthening ties with the Central asian nations. This was followed in January of 2019 by the first India-Central Asia dialogue in Samarkand in Uzbekistan. The second India-Central Asia Dialogue was held virtually on 28 October 2020.

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