China has been taking advantage of huge Indian market to enhance its economic strength in the garb of peace and tranquillity but it has been working quietly and deliberately against the Indian national interests which became obvious in Apr-May 2020 wherein it carried out large scale transgressions in Eastern Ladakh which are still continuing.

The sacrifices by CO and 19-unit personnel during the Galwan clash are a watershed moment for Indian Defence Forces wherein the Chinese have betrayed India ‘once again’. This necessitates that the Indian masses understand the Chinese behavioural pattern as that has not emerged ‘overnight’. It is towards this that the book ‘China Betrays Again’ written by Maj Gen (Dr) Ashok Kumar, VSM (Retd) fills this gap to assist the readers to comprehend the multiple dynamics of Chinese expansionist agenda and as to why it behaves the way it behaves.

ALSO READ: China Fuelling An Asian NATO?

The Book also throws light on Galwan clash, multiple rounds of Corps commander level discussions, infrastructure development and implications for India & China due to continuing Stand Off. It also highlights as to how the Chinese have converted the ‘territorial issue’ into a ‘sovereignty issue’ by adopting its Land Boundary Law effective from 1 Jan 2022.

China is also aggressively changing/ bringing in new sovereignty markers by extended infrastructure development and establishment of the model villages all along the LAC which have to be actively responded by India with enhanced focus on the ‘vibrant villages.

The author has taken pains to elaborate the developments in China since 1911 including conflicts between ROC and PRC. The expansionist agenda and its physical manifestation has also been comprehensively covered. This will help in crystal gazing in its future behaviour.

The details of border disputes and LAC disputes have been comprehensively covered in the simplest language for reader to understand. The book also helps to understand the Chinese design of debt trapping in the other countries with specific details of Sri Lanka.

ALSO READ: Fujian – China’s Newest Type 03 Aircraft Carrier

The book also looks at multiple other issues connected with China whether it is BRI or CPEC. Chinese collusivity with Pakistan and its impact on the resolution of the Siachen glacier has also been comprehensively covered.

The reader will be able to get a clear sense of the Chinese activities in South China Sea as well as East China Sea besides its efforts to affect the freedom of navigation for the other countries. Its ambitions to integrate Taiwan have also been covered in detail.        

Prof Hoppymon Jacob has written the ‘Foreword’ of the book which comprehensively captures the essence of the content. The book has been published by ‘Sabre and Quill’ publishers containing 283 pages with cost of Rs 1295/- for hardcover edition. The book is available at Amazon, Sabre & Quill publishers and Book Mart distributors. Author signed copies can be obtained directly from the author.

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READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochment Between India and China—Part 1)

The Galwan Clash

A border standoff in eastern Ladakh erupted on 5 May 2020. The face-off escalated after the Galwan Valley clashes.

On 15 June 2020, Chinese troops, estimated to be more than 250, attacked a group of 50 Indian soldiers who were inspecting the progress of the Chinese withdrawal from the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Galwan Valley. The encounter ended in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an undeclared number of Chinese troops, and led to a prolonged standoff between the two sides.

There had not been a single death from hostilities at the LAC in over 45 years — since 1967 – despite several hundred Chinese LAC violations annually.

The Current Situation is not promising.

The 16th Border Meeting was held on 17 July 2022, a step-by-step de-escalation was agreed but very little progress has been made.

The stated Indian position has been that until and unless there is peace and tranquility on the border, overall China-India relations cannot much progress. So far, India has remained reluctant to engage China normally in the bilateral context.

Beijing has repeatedly said that border standoff does not represent the entirety of China-India relations, while New Delhi has maintained that peace along the frontier is essential for the two countries to work together.

Chinese violations the LAC in all sectors are growing in frequency – up to 660 LAC violations by the PLA in 2019. There is an uncommon level of hostility, including fist-fighting and rock throwing that were rare prior to 2017.

The trends suggest LAC standoffs are growing more hostile, more frequent, longer in duration, and are receiving more media coverage and international attention, potentially restricting both sides’ room for manoeuvre.

There is a substantial massing of military forces in Ladakh to positions near the LAC.

Why Did China Resort to Aggression?

Some of the likely reasons are discussed below

Infrastructure Development. There has been an acceleration of Indian infrastructure development near the LAC in an attempt to close a substantial deficit with China there.  In April 2019, India completed work on the critical Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road running parallel to the LAC in Ladakh, stretching all the way to its northernmost outpost at Daulet Beg Oldi. More recently, India began building east-west feeder roads from DSDBO to its forward outposts near the LAC. This year, India was also reportedly engaged in efforts to improve road infrastructure at Pangong Lake.

China has attempted to pressure India to halt infrastructure activities. India refused to heed China’s calls; the PLA applied military pressure. Only this time with more troops, more equipment, more locations, more pressure, and one potentially bold attempt to change the status quo at Pangong Lake.

India continues to construct and modernize over 60 “strategic roads” along the LAC, with an expected completion date of 2022.

Galwan River area has now become a hotspot because it is where the LAC is closest to the new road India has built along the Shyok River to DBO – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh.

Major Power Diplomacy. China tried to woo India to hedge against the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and making it a key partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. India declined.

China’s Neighborhood Strategy. China wants to effectively check a rising New Delhi by asserting its strength and psychological advantage in bilateral ties.  It wants to have a China-centered regional order with Beijing as the sole leader or rule-maker in the region.

Blame for Pandemic. China believed that India was catalyzing resentment against Beijing over poor handling of the pandemic that originated in Wuhan. India took over as the chair of the WHO executive Board on 22 May 2020 and it had a say in the probe into the origins of the pandemic and Taiwan’s participation in the 72nd session of the World Health Assembly.

Internal Dissent. Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced one of the biggest crises since the party came to power in 1949 because of dissatisfaction in handling the pandemic and the consequent surge in economic distress. At the NPC plenary, President Xi’s expected message was conciliatory to the domestic audience, while the international assertion was to be robust and defiant.

Restrictions on Chinese investments. The Chinese government took offence to India’s new rule notified in early April 2020 that blocked Chinese companies from acquiring Indian firms without government approval. The Indian government decided that all procurement orders of Rs 200 crore or less could not go to foreign companies. It could discourage cheap exports from China. Since the clash, India has also banned 224 Chinese Apps and a few dozen Chinese companies are facing tax evasion scrutiny including ZTE, Huawei, One Plus, Xiaomi and Vivo.

Change of J&K Status. India abrogated Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution on Jammu & Kashmir, which provided the province special status and autonomy on 5 Aug 2019. J&K was made a Union Territory directly administered from Delhi. China described India’s move as “unacceptable”, undermining its “sovereignty” — even raised the issue at the UN Security Council. Frequent calls have been made by Indians to integrate Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit- Baltistan as these territories rightfully belong to India. China is concerned about these demands since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is part of the ‘China Dream’ and the Karakoram Highway passes through these Indian territories to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.

India’s Accelerating Partnership with the US. China is concerned with India’s increasing and growing proximity to the US which it belives is aimed at countering China. Some of the developments which have taken place are

•             Major Non-NATO Defense Partner with all basic enabling agreements in place.

•             Over $20 billion in defense sales to India MQ-9B unmanned aerial systems; P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, C-130J transport aircraft, C-17 planes, MH-60R multi mission maritime helicopters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, CH-47 Chinook helicopters)

•             U.S.-India Defense Technology and Trade Initiative

•             Institutionalised 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue (2018)

•             Quad Initiative (March 2021).

•             Exemption from buying the S-400 Triumf AD systems from Russia

•             Malabar joint exercises

•             Close collaboration in Covid-19 response

•             Counterterrorism Joint Working Group

•             Homeland Security Dialogue

•             Counter Narcotics Working Group

The Ukraine War

With the attention of the US-led West diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine instead of countering China in the Indo-Pacific, an emboldened Beijing is likely to indulge in muscle-flexing along the LAC, especially in the Arunachal sector.

India will have to grapple with a more belligerent China along its northern borders as a fallout of the Ukraine crisis.

The PLA has shown no signs of de-escalating the 21-month-long troop confrontation in eastern Ladakh, even as it has systematically strengthened its military positions and infrastructure all along the LAC.

Apart from conventional military capabilities, China’s focus on space, cyberspace and “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare has been a major concern for India.

India’s Encirclement By China

New Delhi has numerous other concerns regarding China’s activities in almost all of India’s neighbouring countries.

Today, China with its unmistakable clout in South and Southeast Asia has used its economic-political-military influence, in intensifying its ties with Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Maldives causing Indo-China political and security discord.

According to the US annual report “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 2020” the Pentagon says that in addition to the Chinese military base in Djibouti, China is seeking to set up military logistics facilities in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. In addition, China is considering to base its military logistics and infrastructure in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, and Tajikistan.

China is using the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative first announced in 2013, to support its strategy of national rejuvenation by seeking to expand global transportation and trade linkages to support its development and deepen its economic integration with nations along its periphery and beyond.

While China finances the developmental projects in target countries, information about its loaning operations are kept secretive and vague. Consequently, governments of BRI countries end up being completely unaware of the amount of money that they owe to China when contracts expire since loans extended to Chinese state-owned companies, banks, special purpose vehicles, joint ventures, and private sector institutions. The terms and conditions of the loans give China the right to use the finished projects and land as collateral if the latter were to default on loan repayments.

Potentially, these projects, when taken over could provide a global PLA military logistics network to interfere with military operations against China and support its own offensive operations as the Chinese global military objectives evolve.

Let us look at Chinese inroads into India’s neighbouring countries.

Myanmar

Myanmar is also part of BRI and likely to face the Chinese Debt Trap. There is also a lack of trust on the Myanmar side, due to China’s historical role in supporting rebel groups in Myanmar.

China and Myanmar share a 2,227-kilometer-long border. They have a boundary protocol signed in 1961, to conduct joint inspections every five years. But this has only occurred twice—in 1984-86 and 1992-95. A dispute over the border between Myanmar’s northern Shan State and China has simmered since 2008. Parts of the 200 km fence built by China have been pulled down by locals. The Chinese government is pushing Myanmar to implement the long-delayed Belt and Road Initiative projects and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) Chinese townships are coming up inside Myanmar border areas administered by Wa authorities. The expansion of Chinese influence is obvious.

The CMEC will terminate at a new deep-water port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar’s Rakhine state. Some analysts have raised fears that the port could someday be used as a base or access point by the PLA.

China has a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence station on Great Coco Island in Myanmar. The Chinese Army is also building a base on Small Coco Island in the Alexandra Channel between the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea north of India’s Andaman Islands. These two islands, which have been leased to China since 1994.

Bangladesh

China is considered as an ‘all-weather friend’ of Bangladesh – Their ties cover geopolitical, economic spheres and defence ties form a key area of their relationship.

Bangladesh forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative-BRI. But all is not well between their ties. China tends to interfere with Bangladesh’s foreign relations matters.

Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jimming, on May 10, 2021, warned Dhaka against joining the QUAD and said that if Bangladesh did so, it will “substantially damage” bilateral relations between Bangladesh and China.

China accounted for around 74 percent of Bangladesh’s arms imports between 2010– 2019 including submarines.

Bhutan

Bhutan shares an over 400-km-long border with China and the two countries have held over 24 rounds of boundary talks in a bid to resolve the dispute.

Bhutan and China issued a 1988 Joint Communique on the Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Boundary and signed agreement on the maintenance of peace, tranquillity and status quo in the Bhutan-China Border areas in Kunming in April 2021.

China is using all tactics available to it for twisting Bhutan’s arms. China has established new villages roads and military or police outposts in disputed Bhutanese territory.

The Chinese game plan is probably to exchange it for another disputed pocket around Doklam, in western Bhutan at the cost of India’s security.

China seems to have managed to effectively lower India’s influence in Bhutan.

Nepal

China is trying to succeed in replacing India as the key economic as well as security partner for Nepal.

China’s main interest in Nepal has always been led by its concerns over Tibet. 25,000 Tibetans live in Nepal.

The Chinese have always considered Nepal the soft underbelly of Southern Tibet and are now determined to keep it under their influence.

Under a Marxist government, Nepal is trying to reshape its ties with China as a possible counterweight to India by proposing extension of their railway network from Tibet to Nepal, infratsructure projects and providing land link to Chinese ports.

Nepal as a buffer is important for India but India is losing its clout in Nepal to China.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka joined China’s BRI with several projects but now Colombo has fallen into the premeditated scheme of a Chinese debt trap, paying off its loans through debt-equity swaps to creating extra-jurisdictional Special Economic Zones.

An often-cited example of the ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ is the case of Hambantota in Sri Lanka, where the local government was forced to sign the port away on a 99-year lease after failing to repay Chinese loans.

For India, Lanka is an island that can be transformed into a veritable enemy aircraft carrier anchored on her doorstep, within strike range. Sri Lanka is also a potential kick-off point for an Antarctica mission at some future point.

Maldives

Maldives is barely 70 nautical miles away from Minicoy island in India’s Lakshadweep archipelago and 300 nautical miles away from India’s west coast.

Until 2017, Maldives was part of the Indian security grid receiving defence and economic assistance from India.

In 2013, after Abdulla Yameen came to power, Xi visited Maldives. Maldives joined the Maritime Silk Road and the two nations inked a free trade agreement. Chinese infrastructure projects flourished. Maldives accumulated a debt of nearly $3.1 billion (GDP $4 billion). There have been speculations about a possible Chinese naval base in Maldives. However, since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih came to power as president in 2018 after defeating Yameen, India has been prioritized over China.

Pakistan

China’s “irreplaceable, all-weather friend” Pakistan is China’s biggest arms buyer, counting for nearly 47% of Chinese arms exports.

China has established ammunition factories, provided technological assistance and modernised existing facilities.

The Chinese Chengdu J-10B fighter and Low to Medium Altitude Air Defence System (LOMADS) LY-80 has been supplied to the Pakistan Air Force. The Chinese have provided technology to manufacture JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, AWACS systems and Al-Khalid tanks.

China is the largest investor in Pakistan’s Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.

China played a major role in the development of Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure, such as in building the Khushab reactor (for production of plutonium) and the completion of the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility.

China inroads in  Pakistan/Sindh/Baluchistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, under the garb of BRI and strategic importance attached by it to China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are an open secret.

India’s Opposition to CPEC. India has not endorsed the CPEC because it passes through the contested Gilgit-Baltistan region that remains, according to India, under the illegal occupation of Pakistan.

It is crucial for China to gain control over the Gilgit-Baltistan region (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir PoK), as the region borders the Xinjiang province of China.

CPEC would link Pakistan’s southern Gwadar port in Balochistan on the Arabian Sea to China’s western Xinjiang region. It also includes plans to create road, rail and oil pipeline links to improve connectivity between China and the Middle East.

Gwadar port, located on the Arabian Sea, will allow China to have a say in global energy economics as the country can use a naval base to hold control over the maritime traffic passing between West Asia.

READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochement Between India and China? (Part 3)

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In his nearly three-hour “candid” talks with visiting Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, external affairs minister S Jaishankar asserted that restoration of normalcy in ties will require restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

Wang flew into Delhi from Kabul on 24 March evening in an unannounced trip in the first highest-level visit to India by a Chinese leader after the border standoff in eastern Ladakh erupted nearly two years ago.

At a media briefing shortly after his talks with Wang, Jaishankar said: “If we are both committed to improving our ties then this commitment must find full expression in the ongoing disengagement talks.”

Describing the current situation as a “work in progress”, he also said that relations between India and China have been “disturbed” as a result of the Chinese actions in April 2020.

“So long there are very large deployments, border situation is not normal. We still have ongoing friction areas, have made progress in resolving some friction areas including Pangong Tso. Our discussion today was how to take this forward,” he said.

The border issue is understood to have figured prominently in the meeting between Wang and Doval too. Both sides agreed on the importance of early and complete disengagement in remaining areas to allow bilateral ties to take their natural course. They also stressed the need to continue positive interactions at diplomatic,military levels for restoration of peace, sources said.

Wang also met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who pressed insisted on an early and complete disengagement of troops in Ladakh, a source with knowledge of the discussions said. “The continuation of the present situation is not in our mutual interest,” the source quoted Doval as telling Wang.

“Restoration of peace and tranquillity will help build mutual trust and create enabling environment for progress in relations,” Doval added.

New Delhi has made it abundantly clear that it cannot be “business as usual” with China until the border stand-off is resolved on mutually acceptable terms.

‘Allow Indian students to return’

Jaishankar also raised with his Chinese counterpart the issue of return of Indian students to China to resume their studies and hoped that Beijing will adopt a “non-discriminatory approach” on it.

“I took up strongly the predicament of Indian students studying in China who have not been allowed to return, citing Covid restrictions. We hope that China will take a non-discriminatory approach since it involves the future of so many young people,” Jaishankar said.

“Minister Wang Yi assured me that he would speak to the relevant authorities on his return on this matter. He also recognised the particular concerns that medical students have in this difficult situation,” he said.

A large number of Indian students had come back to India when China has closed down all universities following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. China had restricted travel by suspending visa and residence permits from March 27, 2020, in view of the pandemic.

‘There should be immediate ceasefire in Ukraine’

The two ministers agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue to defuse the war in Ukraine.

“Wang Yi presented the Chinese understanding, the Chinese view of the situation developed there and the developments pertaining to it, and I presented the Indian view,” Jaishankar said.

The external affairs minister said both sides discussed their respective approaches and perspectives and agreed that diplomacy and dialogue must be the priority.

“I think, the Indian view, many of you may have heard me speak about it yesterday in Parliament as well. And obviously, what he said was his view and what I said was my view, but where we had a common element was that both of us agreed on the importance of an immediate ceasefire as well as a return to diplomacy and dialogue,” he said.

The external affairs minister said in Parliament on 24 March that India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been “steadfast and consistent” and that it wants resolution of the conflict through talks.

India has not criticised Russia yet for its invasion of Ukraine and also abstained from voting at the UN platforms in condemning the Russian attack.

China has close ties with Russia and it has been giving signals about its willingness to assist Moscow in offsetting the impact of economic sanctions announced by the US and other Western countries following the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Wang’s Kashmir remarks at OIC meet discussed

The external affairs minister said that the remark made by Chinese foreign minister at the OIC meet, which had sparked a strong response from New Delhi, featured in their talks.

Jaishankar said he conveyed to Wang that India hopes that China would follow an independent policy in respect to New Delhi and will not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries.

“Did the issue of what Minister Wang Yi said at the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) Conference come up? Yes, it did. I referred to it. I explained to him, why we found that statement objectionable. It was a subject discussed at some length. There was a larger context as well,” Jaishankar told reporters.

“I conveyed that we hope that China would follow an independent policy in respect of India and not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries and other relationships,” said Jaishankar.

3,500 km long border, varied perceptions

The India-China border, stretching from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh, is largely undemarcated. Both sides claim vast swathes of each other’s territory, primarily due to differences in perception about the exact location of the Line of Actual Control.

The border remained largely peaceful since the war of 1962, barring occasional skirmishes- until June 2020.

A violent clash erupted over a Chinese incursion into Indian territory and preventing Indian border patrols. 20 Indian soldiers were martyred when PLA troops attacked with hand-held weapons. Several reports said the Chinese side also suffered at least 35 casualties. However it has never been officially acknowledged by China.

Both sides deployed large number of troops and heavy weaponry in the region following the Galwan clash. The resulting stand-off has not been fully resolved, even after 15 rounds of military-level talks.

Growing trade, and the imbalance

Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

The exports from India to China have increased from $10.17 billion in 2016-17 to $21.19 billion in 2020-21. The imports from China have increased from $61.28 billion to $65.21 billion during the same period.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises and electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market, operate in India.

Since the Galwan clash of 2020, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

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