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Editorial IMR January 2021

Maj Gen (Dr) GD Bakshi, SM, VSM — Fri, 15 Jan 2021 14:09:00 +0000

2020 – The Year That Was

Covid came as a curse upon mankind. It virtually destroyed the global economy, infected over 113 million people and left over 2 million dead. Was it a natural epidemic or a diabolical biological warfare exercise unleashed by China? That still remains to be established. What caused China’s overtly aggressive behaviour all along its periphery in the times of Covid? Was it a panic aggressive – defensive reaction to the mounting pressure by the Donald Trump administration in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang? It almost started a kinetic conflict in Eastern Ladakh and serious military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. So will the change of guard in Washington change the stance towards China? It may, for a time. But geo-strategic logic and the balance of power considerations are sure to ensure the emergence of a bi-partisan consensus in Washington. China is a rising power and a major threat to US primacy in the world and no amount of wishful thinking can alter that harsh geo-political reality.

After Galwan, India has been amply warned that a two-front war scenario could well emerge as an ominous reality. We simply cannot afford to neglect a long delayed military modernization any longer. We have to rebuild our Air Force and fill the gaping voids in our squadron strength. After the Galwan warning, if we still neglect our defence modernisation – it will only reflect a civilisational death wish. The Gandhian mind-set could well become an invitation for a civilizational disaster. Forget about matching up to China. We allowed even Pakistan to overtake us in critical military technologies like beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles. The replacement of our Soviet-era equipment should have happened in the 1990s. Unfortunately, our economy collapsed that year and delayed our military modernisation by two decades. The UPA-era refusal to modernise our military for another decade has created a most dangerous situation, which may well tempt our neighbours to press home their advantage. The trouble in Eastern Ladakh has come as a badly needed wake up call. This should give us an opportunity to rapidly fill all dangerous voids in our air power and firepower. The Armenia-Aizerbaijan conflict has driven home the urgent necessity to have armed UAVs. I cannot understand why we consigned them to a purely recce role for decades. How could we ignore military developments around the globe so blithely and for so long?

We have finally put a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) in place and are trying desperately to catch up. The availability of a CDS enabled us to make emergency purchases during the Eastern Ladakh crisis. We had to go in for emergent induction/purchases of Rafales, Su-30s and MiG-29s. We will urgently need to speed up induction of Tejas aircraft and possibly go in for the Su-35s. We urgently need BVRs and get out of the dog-fight era mindset. Balakote was adequate warning. The Army needs to mediumise the artillery and rapidly induct the Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS). We need two more aircraft carriers. We are still to see a full and proper reality check in New Delhi. The paltry increase in defence budget this year is stupefying. Does the Indian civilization have a death-wish? Why is it deliberately opening windows of vulnerability which could invite attack? The saving grace is that China’s main threat and strategic orientation is towards the east coast, Taiwan and the South China Sea, presently.

Which way will the Biden administration go is now is the critical question. Pure strategic logic calls for a bipartisan consensus in USA about the threat from China. However, it was baffling to see sections of the new administration supporting Khalistani terrorists to break up India. Ossified habits of thoughts in Washington are leading to calls for a reset of relations with Pakistan, which is now firmly in the Chinese camp. That defies logic. Maybe this confusion of the early days will soon resolve itself into coherent and logical strategic policy choices. The initial indications however are not reassuring. India will have to drastically speed up its progress towards autarky in weapons systems and real self-reliance that goes beyond the tokenism of assembling knocked-down kits. We will have to take serious steps to involve the private sector in a very major and decisive way in our defence manufacturing. We have to turn ourselves from the biggest importers of arms to a major exporter. Mercifully, this process has started at long last. We cannot afford to drift any longer.

A major problem area is the basal Gandhian mindset of non-violence and pacifism that has taken deep roots in our bureaucratic steel frame. That is the main stumbling block towards creating a realist mind-set in the Indian State. Since Nehruvian times, our foreign ministry has assumed the role of waging peace around the globe. That seemingly puts it at loggerheads with the armed forces designed to wage wars to defend India. The modern Westphalian system of nation states is premised upon the monopoly of violence. We are the sole state that has invented a false narrative premised upon non-violence and pacifism as the foundations of a modern state. That is a basic contradiction in terms. We have to sadly graduate from this contrived Gandhian narrative to the realism of Subhash Chandra Bose. It would be the most fitting tribute in his 125th birth anniversary year.

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Chinese troops vacate Hot Springs; pull back slow in other areas – Indian Military Review

IMR Reporter — Wed, 08 Jul 2020 18:00:56 +0000

Indian and Chinese armies continued with the troop withdrawal process on Wednesday clearing patrol point-15 – another friction zone in eastern Ladakh that was on the knife-edge during the nine-week long stand-off in India’s northernmost union territory.

The disengagement has been completed at PP-15 (Gogra Post/Hot Spring areas) where the troops have moved back by nearly two km from the line of actual control, government sources said. At PP-17 and PP-17A in the same area, it would take another day or two to finish the task.
PP-15 is the second friction point that was cleared by the two armies in the last two days after PP-14 that witnessed a bloody battle on June 15 between the troops leading to the death of 20 Indian soldiers and a significant number of Chinese troops. Satellite images also confirm the clearance.

On the northen banks of the Pangong Tso where the Chinese troops fortified their positions, sources said some more thinning of the People’s Liberation Army troops had taken place at Finger 4 up to which the Indian troops are restricted at the moment, but there is no sign of a definitive pull back yet.

Traditionally on the northern banks of the 135 km long lake, Indian troops used to patrol upto Finger 8, which is 8 km east of Finger 4.

Sources said the two armies were exploring yet another meeting of the senior military commanders to complete the verification process and decide on the future course of action. But no time schedule has been drawn yet.

The joint verification will assess the implementation of the disengagement process once the dismantling of temporary infrastructure and withdrawal of troops are completed. Besides the talks would also finalise the modalities for restoring normalcy and bringing back peace and tranquillity along the LAC after the disengagement exercise is completed.

At PP-14 and PP-15, a buffer zone has been created which no army is patrolling at the moment. Indian Army sources insist it was only a temporary measure necessary to avoid recurrence of any inadvertent clash between the troops.

“This is only a temporary step which would be in place till the disengagement process is complete. No permanent buffer zone has been created,” said an Army officer.

Sources said Indian Army would maintain its aggressive posturing along the LAC till the Chinese side cuts down on its significant build up in the depth areas on their side of the LAC.

Both sides brought in thousands of additional troops and weaponry including tanks and artillery guns to their rear bases as part of a build up following the face-off that began on May 5, even though increased Chinese presence along the LAC was noticed by mid-April.

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Tri-Services Command at A&N Islands on Alert

IMR Reporter — Sat, 20 Jun 2020 16:33:30 +0000

The recent incidents at Galwan and other parts on the LAC have got senior defence officials worried about the Andamans. Many feel the archipelago, nearly 700 nautical miles from the mainland, remains at risk from People’s Liberation Army Navy. The Chinese navy has been active in the region, surveillance has established. While most Chinese vessels, including submarines, have lurked close to India’s territorial waters, some had to be driven away.

“The Galwan incident and PLA’s build-up along LAC are indicative of China’s mindset from the start. China doesn’t want a full-scale conflict with India. In Galwan, they suffered casualties and this will be hard to digest for the Chinese. They will not try anything more at LAC but will look at other avenues. China has already launched artificial islands and floating landmasses that are actually military bases. Countries like China are on the lookout for islands they can put to use strategically. In the Andamans, we have such islands but fail to understand their potential,” a senior Navy official said.

The Indian mainland is actually further away from A&N than South China Sea over which China claims control. Moreover, rushing in assets will require planning and have to be guided by the prevalent weather.

Senior Navy officers say the Andamans and Nicobar Tri-Services Command requires capital ships, including missile frigates and even destroyers. At least 3-4 P-8I long range surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft should also be deployed there for constant patrolling.
Vice-Admiral (retd) P K Chatterjee, former commander-in-chief, Andamans and Nicobar Command and the seniormost submariner in the country when he retired, believes the Andamans nee-ds to be paid more attention.

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43 Chinese Dead or Injured in Galwan Valley

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 02:42:14 +0000

“Indian intercepts reveal that the Chinese side suffered 43 casualties including dead and seriously injured in face-off in the Galwan Valley,” ANI said quoting sources.

ANI further reported that an increase in chopper activity has been observed on the Chinese side of the LAC to airlift casualties suffered by their troops during the face-off.

The report comes moments after the casualty figure on the Indian side was updated from three to 20. Earlier it was reported that one Indian Army officer and two Jawans were killed in action. However, the Indian Army has now confirmed that “17 Indian troops who were critically injured in the line of duty at the standoff location and exposed to sub-zero temperatures in the high altitude terrain have succumbed to their injuries, taking the total that were killed in action to 20.”

The Indian Army statement did not mention casualties on the Chinese side.

The over five-week-long stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops turned violent on Monday night, inflicting casualties on both sides.

The armies on two sides have been engaged in the standoff in Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, Demchok and Daulat Beg Oldie in eastern Ladakh since May 5. A sizeable number of Chinese Army personnel even transgressed into the Indian side of the de-facto border in several areas including Pangong Tso.

The Indian Army has been fiercely objecting to the transgressions and demanded their immediate withdrawal for the restoration of peace and tranquillity in the area. Both sides held a series of talks in the last few days to resolve the row.

The Indian side has been pitching for the restoration of status quo ante and immediate withdrawal of thousands of Chinese troops from the areas which India considers on its side of the LAC.

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China claims all of Galwan Valley, part of Pangong Tso

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 02:29:03 +0000

Three days after Indian and Chinese military commanders met on Saturday at Chushul, in Ladakh, to discuss the crisis caused by the occupation by thousands of Chinese soldiers of territory traditionally patrolled by both armies, top army sources in New Delhi sought to portray a rapidly improving situation.

Claiming that both sides – the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Indian Army – have “retreated a bit” after the Saturday meeting, the army sources revealed that another Sino-Indian meeting would be held on Wednesday at a more junior level.

However, sources on the ground paint a far bleaker picture of Chinese intransigence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). They say that, during the talks, the PLA interlocuters flatly rejected the Indian demand for Chinese troops to withdraw from areas they occupied in May and restore the status quo that prevailed in April.

In fact, during the military-to-military dialogue on Saturday, China flatly refused to even discuss its intrusions into the Galwan River valley, instead claiming ownership over the entire area.

Underlining these sharp divergences between the Indian and Chinese positions, no joint statement was released after Lieutenant General Harinder Singh, the Leh corps commander, met PLA Major General Liu Lin, who heads the South Xinjiang Military Region in a bid to defuse the confrontation.

Nor did New Delhi release any details about the military discussions. Only on Tuesday, after being sharply criticised by opposition members, including Rahul Gandhi of the Congress Party, did “top army sources” present the media with the military’s version of events.

According to their version, the Indian and Chinese corps commanders met one-on-one for almost three hours before engaging further during delegate-level talks. The two sides “mutually agreed and identified five locations of conflicts” between PLA and Indian troops. These include Patrolling Point 14 (PP14), PP15, PP17, the north bank of Pangong Tso Lake and Chushul.

The fact that these conflict locations make no mention of the Galwan River valley lends credence to the argument that the sector did not feature on the discussion agenda.

Galwan River valley

During the talks, the PLA indicated they were taking control of the Galwan River valley, which has traditionally been a peaceful sector where China adhered to a claim line. Now PLA negotiators have asserted ownership of the entire Galwan Valley, claiming that China had controlled the hilltops astride the Galwan River for “as long as they could remember.”

The PLA alleged that the one-kilometre-long track that India had built from the Shyok-Galwan river junction, heading eastwards along the Galwan River, was an encroachment on Chinese territory. They alleged that India was developing this track into a metal (black-topped) road.

The Indian army representatives countered that the Chinese had constructed a metal road right to where the LAC had existed up till May – that is five kilometres from where the Galwan flows into the Shyok river – and that the road would soon cross the LAC. The Chinese responded that the Galwan Valley was their area and it was legitimate for them to build a road in it.

Indian negotiators also objected strongly to PLA troops deploying in the close vicinity of India’s Gogra post. Sources say the PLA did not offer a cogent response.

Nor was there a cogent PLA response to Indian allegations that the Chinese were constructing a road on India’s side of the LAC between Hot Springs and Gogra.

Responding to Indian charges of Chinese intrusions onto the Pangong Tso north bank, the PLA negotiators claimed they had “acted rightfully” in constructing a metalled road up to Finger 4, and preparing defensive positions in that disputed area.

Prior to May, Indian army regularly patrolled till their perceived LAC at Finger 8, eight kilometres east of Finger 4. However, since May 5, when thousands of PLA troops blocked and savagely beat up outnumbered Indian troops in that area, Indian patrols are unable to go beyond Finger 4, which the Chinese now claim is the LAC.

The Chinese military officials accepted that the aggression with which PLA soldiers attacked Indian troops at the Pangong Tso in mid-May “was not in the right spirit,” but said it was a reaction to Indian patrols crossing the PLA’s version of the LAC.

The Indian army also brought up the need to reduce forward deployments of PLA soldiers, armoured vehicles and artillery guns. The Chinese responded they would have to refer the matter to their superiors.

Gains and losses

Army sources apprehend the PLA has gained strategically in the Galwan Valley, where they now occupy positions overlooking the strategic Darbuk-Shyok-Daulet Beg Old (DSDBO) road to Depsang, at the base of the Karakoram Pass.

The Chinese have also gained strategically by isolating the Depsang area, as a consequence of dominating the DSDBO road. There is currently a large Chinese armour build up opposite Depsang, which is raising apprehensions of surprise ingress in that sector by the PLA.

Chinese gains in the Pangong Tso area, however, are being seen as tactical, even though the levels of violence the PLA displayed there is worrisome.

The other PLA activities at Naku La (Sikkim) and at Harsil and Lipu Lekh (Uttarakhand) are being viewed as “red herrings”, aimed at tying down Indian troops rather than serving any larger strategic objectives.

The army is also closely watching the long border between Arunachal Pradesh and Tibet, which is called the McMahon Line. This has been entirely quiet so far, with no Chinese activity in this area.

On Wednesday, Indian army sources provided a military-political perspective to the on-going PLA intrusions. “The core issue is the undecided LAC. Until that is solved, these episodes and issues will continue to happen,” they stated.

Also to blame, according to the army sources, was the PLA’s militarization of the border areas. “China has deployed fighter bombers, rocket forces, air defence radars, jammers, etcetera. India has also deployed all its major assets along the LAC… just a few kilometres away from the frontline. India will continue to have major build up until China withdraws the build up [it has] done there,” they said.

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