Pakistan military’s 2018 gamble to install the former Pakistan cricketer-turned politician, Imran Khan, flopped with the ousting of the former prime minister and his government in 2022. Along with the arrests of Imran Khan, his wife and several of his party workers, many serving military officers of various cadres were also interrogated and arrested on numerous charges.

Recently, on 12 August 2024, the former Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed was arrested by the Pakistan military. The Supreme Court ordered the arrest of the former chief. He was charged with misconduct, corruption and for abetting in political interference. Since then, court martial proceedings have been launched against him.

“Complying with the orders of Supreme Court of Pakistan . . . the process of Field General Court Martial has been initiated and Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (Retd) has been taken into military custody,” the Pakistan army stated. Since the conception of Pakistan, its military has been infamous for having influence over the country’s politics.

According to various reports presented against Hameed, there were allegations against him for allegedly harassing the owner of Islamabad’s ‘Top City’ housing scheme and society. Besides him, three other retired officers have been detained by the military in relation to Hameed’s case. But an important element to factor in, amidst all the said charges, is the undeniable close affiliation the former spy master has shared with the ousted prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan.

Khan has dismissed the charges against him as “frivolous and politically motivated,” even though he was forced to serve time in a jail for a year.

However, the appellate courts have since reversed, invalidated or suspended the charged convictions due to the lack of substantial evidence. But, the authorities in Islamabad seemed determine to file new cases against Khan in order to keep him in jail. Hence, the determination of the Pakistan Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), Gen Asim Munir to contain the political turbulence and to nail Imran Khan’s cronies should be no surprise with the arrest of his “top dog” spy master, Faiz Hameed.

The Former ISI Spy Chief, PMLN and the State

Lt Gen Faiz Hameed served as the 24th Director-General of Inter-Services Intelligence (DG ISI) from 2019 to 2021. He is known as the “India baiter” and Imran Khan’s affiliate.

It was reported that post-Taliban’s take over of Afghanistan in 2021, the chief had paid a visit to Kabul. The visits of the DG ISI had been clandestine in the past. However, it was not the case with his trip to Kabul. Several images of Lt Gen Faiz and Pakistan’s Ambassador Mansoor Ali Khan, having tea at Kabul’s Serena Hotel, surfaced on the social media. The purpose of Hameed’s visit was to seek “peace and stability” in Afghanistan and to get the first-hand account of the ground situation in Afghanistan. Despite the statements made by the former DG ISI, it was confirmed that the objective of his visit was to meet with the top Afghan leadership and certain foreign envoys in Kabul. Even though no official details were divulged at the time, it later came to light that the chief had brokered peace between the Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Baradar network.

The main promoter of Taliban had been Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, who was also in favour of the Haqqani Network when the fight to take over Kabul erupted between the warring factions. The ISI has been reported in the past to have utilized the Haqqani Network to orchestrate attacks on the Indian Embassy in Kabul as well as to sway the Sunni Pashtun force in a direction inclined to Pakistan. Additionally, under Hameed’s command’s, reports of the induction of Pakistan Army regulars in the anti-resistance operations against the Resistance Force, led by Commander Amrullah Saleh in Panjshir Valley, were conducted.

It was inferred, that Pakistan’s consistent aid to Taliban rose from their desire for a strategic depth in Afghanistan, while nurturing an outfit such as Taliban to act as ISI’s puppet to curb the possible terror threats, which it incurs from Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). However, the tables have turned since then. The disillusionment of the Pakistani government of controlling the Afghan Taliban shattered with Taliban’s lackadaisical and undetermined effort in fostering a peace deal with TTP and Pakistan. The TTP later called off the ceasefire with Pakistan in 2022. The negotiations were carried out between a delegation led by Faiz Hameed and TTP leaders in Khost, Afghanistan. Under the negotiations, corps commanders of TTP, Muhammed Khan and Muslim Khan were released. Since then, TTP has ravaged Pakistan with their persistent attacks.

Besides the TTP threat, Pakistan was also hopeful with regards to the Pakistan-Afghan border areas, which even though are demarcated by the Durand Line, still remain as areas of dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghans view the border as an artificial entity and do not recognize the Durand line agreement, which Pakistan inherited post-1947. Afghanistan has claimed certain areas of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as a part of their territory and views Pakistan as the illegal occupiers of their land. Hence, there have been several border skirmishes between the security forces of both nations. Pakistan’s relations with China and the presence of Chinese immigrants in the area have also served as reason for mistrust amongst the local habitants in these regions, who view the Chinese presence as a form of planned displacement of their communities to accommodate the Chinese, with exploitation of their land. Several attacks were orchestrated on Chinese citizens, who were assigned to Sino-Pakistan projects by various insurgents and militant outfits. Later on, at the behest of China, Pakistan decided to carry out a large scale military operation – Azm-i-Istehkam – to neutralize the threats especially around the Durand Line. This has resulted in rallies and ‘jirgas’ (tribal councils) being held in many cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) due to the fear of mass displacement.

Additionally, the refoulement of Afghans back to their homeland from Pakistan has also sparked further tensions between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan government is of the view that many Afghan refugees may be sleeper cells or individuals involved in organized crimes. The inhibitions arising from the growing TTP threat and other offshoots remain to be a strong reason for Pakistan’s preventive course of action. Pakistan has blamed Kabul for being lenient in their approach towards the TTP and has blatantly made accusations of Taliban allowing the anti-Pakistan elements to carry out operations from Afghanistan, while also providing safe havens to them.

Furthermore, with Pakistan struggling economically, the decision for refoulement of undocumented Afghans has been considered prudent and imperative by Islamabad.

With the evolving political developments, dotted with several security and political threats erupting from Imran Khan’s PTI party opposing and clashing with the newly installed prime minister Shehbaaz Shariff’s PML-N, it was expected of the COAS Gen Aseem Munir to employ pre-emptive measures to wrest control over the state of affairs with the favoured political government installed by the military in power.

As a handpicked candidate of Imran Khan, Fiaz Hameed has been acknowledged for his involvement in Khan’s PTI party rioting across Pakistan on 9 May 9, 2023. This move was enough to upset Islamabad, given that PTI workers barged into and torched the official residence of the IV Corps commander in Lahore and also attempted to force themselves into the army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Further reports of Hameed providing counsel to Khan after taking premature retirement from the army, also suggested of his abetment in the May 9 riots in 2023, which has been regarded as an anarchy against the military institution.

Additionally, Nawaz Sharif also asserted that Gen Hameed had colluded with few generals and individuals from higher judiciary to impeach him from power in 2017.

In 2017, Hameed became infamous for orchestrating anti-blasphemy protests against the PML-N government by the far-Right group Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan.

“The arrest of former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed sends a clear signal to those still on the fence – there will be no compromise, no exceptions. Fall in line or face the consequences. The writing is on the wall,” stated Baqir Sajjad Syed, the national security correspondent of the influential Dawn newspaper.

Apart from various charges against Hameed, his personal swipe at the COAS Gen Munir for being a Shia in hopes of dismantling the Saudi-Pakistan relations and expecting the response to remove Munir or halt his appointment also, may have fanned the growing conflagration.

The Military Institution Always Wins in Pakistan After years of impunity, the reign of the former chief ended with the military usurping back its socio-economic and political control. The COAS, Gen Munir seems to have solidified his position with the removal of the puppet government set by the former COAS Gen Javed Qamar Bajwa. He has also carried out a witch hunt against the associates and close affiliates of Imran Khan. The arrest of Gen Bajwa’s former ISI spymaster also has been made into an example for those who would conspire against the current military regime. It would be no surprise if the security of the former COAS may also be under threat.

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Intriguingly, each one of these allegations could be true. Imran has been on a course of confrontation with the army, blaming it — and the US — for his ouster. The attack could be the handiwork of religious fanatics, too — the would-be assassin has said that he wanted to kill Imran because he was ‘misleading’ people and the loudspeakers of his cavalcade were interfering with the aazan. And though it would be uncharitable to believe that it was a staged attack, there are many who believe this to be true.

The attack on Imran took place exactly a week after two Generals, representing the army and the ISI, declared that the army ‘as an institution has decided that it would stay out of politics.’ This claim is being treated with scepticism, and there are reports of there being pro-Imran and anti-Imran factions in the army. Indeed, it is believed that Imran could not have been so critical of the army if he did not have the backing of a few powerful Generals. India, ‘closely monitoring the situation’, would hope for democracy to prevail in Pakistan because military rule has been disastrous for that country, and detrimental to peace in the neighbourhood.

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Imran Khan, who was elected as the 22nd prime minister of the country, on 18 August 2018, lost a no-confidence vote in the parliament and, on 11 April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif took oath as Pakistan’s new prime minister. Pakistan’s general elections are due in 2023. Hence, Sharif has just a year in office.

Since its formation 75 years ago, the country has had democratically elected governments for only 53 years. In these 53 years, 19 men and one woman have been prime minister, two of them more than once, and not a single one has ever completed a five-year term. The first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, lasted the longest—four years and 63 days—before he was assassinated.

In his first speech at the national assembly as prime minister, Sharif brought up Kashmir. Claiming that the valley was red with the blood of the Kashmiri people since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, he said that Pakistan would continue to “raise its voice for Kashmiri brothers and sisters at every forum…they will be provided diplomatic support, we will give them moral support”.

This is as per formula. No Pakistani prime minister can start off without making some belligerent noises about Kashmir. He cannot afford to be seen as being moderate on this issue.

No matter how hard Pakistan’s politicians try to equate India and Pakistan, India is light years ahead of Pakistan economically, technologically, and on every sociological parameter. If the world ever thinks of Pakistan, it is as a hub of Islamist terrorism.

Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who allegedly played a big part in Khan’s removal, also seems pragmatic, if one goes by his public utterances. “Pakistan will benefit if we improve ties with India,” he said recently. In February last year, he agreed to a ceasefire on the Line of Control and the ceasefire has held. He perhaps realizes that a military engagement with India makes no sense for Pakistan, given the many other problems the country faces.

Pakistan’s powerful military has traditionally controlled foreign and defence policy, thereby limiting the impact of political instability. India is aware of the dynamic of civil-military imbalance in Pakistan and the risk of blowback from the military establishment against India whenever there is momentum for bilateral cooperation.

Pakistan’s Economy

Pakistan’s current account deficit is around 4 per cent of GDP. Pakistan owes $122 billion—a third of its GDP—to various multilateral organisations and nations like China and Saudi Arabia. Foreign currency reserves, already depleted, seem to be now in free fall—in March, they dropped 30 percent from $16.2 billion to $11.3 billion. Interest rates are 12.25 per cent.

Terrorism

The number of terror attacks—and attacks on security forces—by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban, has actually increased since Imran Khan, the army and the ISI celebrated the (original) Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August last year.

The TTP has strong links with the Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and has the tacit support of the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan remains on the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money-laundering and terrorist-financing watchdog, precariously perched above the black list. After the 2+2 meeting between the defence and external affairs ministers of India and the US, on 12 April, the two countries issued a joint statement asking Pakistan to take “immediate, sustained, and irreversible action” to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks and called for the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attack and the 2016 Pathankot attack to be brought to justice.

Afghanistan

Ties between Pakistan’s ISI and the Afghan Taliban have loosened in recent years. The Taliban government is facing an economic and humanitarian crisis due to a lack of money and international isolation.

Tensions have risen between the Taliban and Pakistan’s military, which has lost several soldiers in attacks close to their mutual border. Pakistan wants the Taliban to do more to crack down on extremist groups and worries they will spread violence into Pakistan. That has begun to happen already.

Imran Khan, who was less critical of the Taliban over human rights than most foreign leaders, is no longer there to support the Taliban.

China-Pakistan

The only piece of good news for them seems to be that China has reiterated that it considers Pakistan an “all-weather strategic cooperation partner” and “iron-clad brother” and praised Sharif’s commitment to the $60-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

The CPEC was actually conceptualised and launched under Pakistan’s two established political parties, both against Khan. Shehbaz Sharif struck deals with China directly as leader of the eastern province of Punjab. Sharif will defend and push the corridor.

United States-Pakistan

Pakistan is not a priority for President Joe Biden, who is grappling with the war in Ukraine, unless it led to mass unrest or rising tensions with India. Since the military calls the shots on the policies that the U.S. really cares about, i.e. Afghanistan, India and nuclear weapons, internal Pakistani political developments are largely irrelevant for the U.S. Khan had blamed the United States for the current political crisis, saying that Washington wanted him removed because of his Moscow trip.

India-Pakistan

Imran Khan’s ambition was to normalise relations with India and play cricket. Army Chief Gen Qamar Bajwa also spoke about burying the past and focusing on geo-economy. Kashmir is a core issue in its National Security Policy, though Pakistan has tied itself in knots over it, especially after India annulled Article 370. In August 2019, following the approval of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill in Parliament, which revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, further tension resulted between the two countries, with Pakistan downgrading diplomatic ties, closing its airspace, and suspending bilateral trade with India.

Pakistan, today, is desperate to begin a formal dialogue with India which ceased in January 2013 after the beheading of an Indian soldier in J&K. Islamabad is also pressing New Delhi to participate even virtually in the SAARC summit, in abeyance since 2016. India is not budging. India is inflexible and has taken the position “no talks till cross-border terrorism stops.”

When Khan became the prime minister, while speaking at the United States Institute of Peace, he admitted to Pakistan having 40-50,000 terrorists who had fought in Kashmir and Afghanistan. In 2021, after Khan had called the Modi government ‘fascist, unleashing Islamophobia’, India rebutted: ‘The neighbour is an arsonist disguised as a fire-fighter…’

The current cease-fire on LoC — which does not preclude a two-front situation — is the result of one of the many effective back channels.

On Siachen, speaking at the Army Day 2022 media conference, Army Chief Gen Naravane said that demilitarisation of Siachen was possible once Pakistan agreed to marking the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) on the map. In 1988, 1992 and 2006, the two countries came within a whisker of demilitarisation.

Past Attempts at Normalisation

After inaugurating the new Afghan parliament building in Kabul on 25 December 2015, prime minister Narendra Modi, on the way back, unexpectedly landed in Lahore—the political bastion of prime minister Nawaz Sharif – for Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding. The symbolism of an Indian leader setting foot in Pakistan for the first time in 11 years, was unmissable. It riled the military establishment.

India, under Modi, has vigorously pursued a ‘neighbourhood first’ foreign policy. Modi’s vision is to integrate South Asia into a cooperative common space. The deep state in Pakistan pushed back against the attempted normalization of relations with India. Sharif had been ousted once before in a military coup in 1999 for being a ‘traitor’ who came under Indian pressure to withdraw Pakistani troops during the Kargil War. It was clear that the military-intelligence complex in Pakistan calls the shots and reins in politicians who try to cooperate with India.

Former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had also undertaken a bus journey from Amritsar in India to Lahore in February 1999 and was welcomed with open arms by prime minister Sharif. Vajpayee had hailed it as ‘a defining moment in South Asian history,’ but soon thereafter, the Pakistani military infiltrated into Kargil without Sharif’s knowledge and in the two-and-half-month war that followed, India lost 500 of its troops to throw out the infiiltrators.

By 2020, Sharif was in self-imposed exile. He blamed it on the deep state in Pakistan

The Pakistani jihadi attack on the IAF base at Pathankot, on 1 Januray 2016, was undertaken to derail the nascent Modi–Sharif peace process.

Future Prospects

India and Pakistan announced, in February 2022, an agreement to renew the 2003 ceasefire. India’s escalating military confrontation with China provided reason to try and stabilise the Pakistan frontier. But the continuation depends on Islamabad addressing Delhi’s core concerns on cross-border terrorism.

While Kashmir remains at the top of Pakistan’s agenda, it seems open to reviving commercial ties. It announced an intent to import sugar and cotton from India, but the Commerce Ministry’s decision was ostentatiously reversed by Imran Khan by declaring that “Pakistan can’t trade with India when Kashmir was bleeding”.

Islamabad is stuck with preconditions — reversing India’s constitutional changes in Kashmir — it has set for a renewed dialogue with Delhi.

Not talking to Pakistan has few domestic political costs to Delhi. Pakistan will have to lift the preconditions for engagement with India. Gen. Bajwa’s second term as army chief ends in November 2022 amidst sharpening civil-military differences. A lot will depend upon his successor.

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During a roadshow in Peshawar, on 13 April, Khan who was ousted after the recent no-confidence motion against his government, questioned whether Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were safe in the hands of what he called “robbers” and “thieves”, referring to the newly elected Shehbaz Sharif regime.
Meanwhile, addressing a press briefing today, Major General Babar Iftikhar, the Director-General (DG) of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)- the media wing of the Pakistan army- dismissed Khan’s allegations stating that Pakistan’s nuclear assets do not belong to just one individual.

In an incendiary speech, on 13 April night, Imran Khan had said he wanted to ask the country’s establishment if the people who were brought to power as part of a “conspiracy” can safeguard the country’s nuclear program.

“The conspiracy under which these people were brought to power, I ask my institutions, is our nuclear program which is in their hands, can they protect it?” Khan said.

The former Prime Minister has been claiming that his ouster was part of a foreign conspiracy hatched by the US, which furious over Khan’s Moscow visit on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had sought to remove Imran Khan so that it could “forgive” Pakistan.

Addressing the US, Khan at the Peshawar rally said, “America, we don’t need your apology… who are you to forgive us? You are accustomed to these slaves, these Sharifs, these Zardaris.”

“Is the nuclear program safe in the hands of these robbers, whose money is outside?” Imran Khan further said. Addressing the country’s institutions again, he said, “Aren’t you putting the safety of Pakistanis in the hands of these thieves, have you no fear of God?”

Pakistan Army has rubbished Khan’s allegations. “There is no such threat to our nuclear program and we should not bring it up in our political discussions,” DG-ISPIR, Gen Iftikhar said.

“Our program is at such a place that our command and control mechanism, asset security is one of the best in international evaluation,” he added.

Meanwhile, Imran Khan in a tweet on Thursday thanked all those who attended his Peshawar rally to “reject the US-initiated regime change” in Pakistan.

“Want to thank all those who came to our jalsa in Peshawar making it a mammoth & historic jalsa. The passion & commitment crowd showed in support of an indep sovereign Pak & their total rejection of US-initiated regime change bringing to power criminals, shows where nation stands,” Imran Khan said in a tweet.

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The Pakistanis wanted to use the opportunity to convert it into a state visit. The Chinese refused to entertain Pakistani requests. They also asked the Pakistanis to cut down Imran’s entourage to just about four ministers from the nearly dozen that the Pakistani Prime Minister was planning to take with him. Even the audience with the Emperor was granted after a lot of entreaties from the Pakistani side. There was some speculation in Pakistani media whether Xi would even meet Imran. In the end, however, both the Chinese premier and the president held ‘brief’ meetings with Imran. The Pakistanis had also sought a meeting with the Russian president who was also in Beijing at the same time. But the Russians did not make time for a bilateral between Putin and Imran.

On the eve of the visit, the Pakistani media had published stories about all the goodies that would be bestowed by Xi on Imran. There was talk of Russia and Kazakhstan giving a billion dollars each in addition to a $3-billion loan from China. The total money expected from China was around $11 billion – about $4 billion in rollover of earlier debt, about $4.5 billion in credit-swap arrangements (which is used less for funding trade with China – its original purpose – and more for funding balance of payments) and an additional $3 billion in other loans. But closer to the visit, the Pakistani officials debunked all these reports about the loans that were being expected.

It was clear that the goody bag Imran was expecting in return for paying obeisance in the court of Emperor Xi was going to be a lot lighter than what was being originally expected. From what is available in the public domain, the only real worthwhile thing to come from the visit was the ‘Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation under CPEC’ between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Pakistan’s Board of Investment. This agreement is expected to provide the foundation for the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But bulk of the heavy lifting under this framework agreement has to be done by Pakistan. Given the past track record of the Pakistanis, this appears to be a very onerous task especially since none of the Special Economic Zones have so far delivered even the basic facilities to potential investors.

The Joint Statement was full of verbiage – the standard homilies being paid to the ‘all weather friendship’ between the two ‘Iron Brothers’, and the usual encomiums that Pakistanis heap on Xi’s visionary leadership, the various accomplishments of China and the Pakistani support to One China, and on Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, blah, blah blah. In return, the Chinese “reaffirmed their support for Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and security”. Nothing new here.

Similarly, despite the Pakistanis playing up the purported Chinese backing on Kashmir, the formulation in the Joint Statement was pretty standard, no different from what the Chinese have said so many times in the past: Kashmir issue was a dispute left from history, and should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements. China opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation. If anything, the ‘unilateral actions’ bit is something of a double-edged sword. While it cuts at India in the context of the constitutional reforms in Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019, it also cuts at Pakistani plans to annex Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (what they euphemistically call “Azad Jammu and Kashmir”) and the Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) region.

Out of the six-page Joint Statement, around one page was about CPEC and how both sides were committed to the ambitious project that has been in a sort of go-slow mode ever since Imran Khan became Prime Minister in 2018. But notwithstanding all the hackneyed formulations on CPEC – “win-win enterprise”, “pivotal for regional prosperity” – and promises to re-energise it and “safeguard it from all threats and negative propaganda”, there are serious problems affecting the CPEC. The Pakistanis are already in default on some of the payments they owe the Chinese power plants set up under CPEC. Nearly seven years after they agreed to set up a revolving fund to ensure that there is no circular debt in Chinese power projects, this fund has still not been set up. There are also reports of Pakistan seeking renegotiations on the contracts they have signed with the Chinese. But the Chinese are not ready to cut any slack for their ‘sweeter than honey’ friends. In addition, one of the most crucial components of CPEC was the ML-1 rail line connecting Peshawar to Karachi. This project continues to hang in limbo because there is as yet no agreement on the financing. The Pakistanis have no money to pay their side of the $6-8 billion cost of this railway line.

As if this were not enough, there is the entire security question. The Pakistanis have raised a force of over 10,000 to guard the Chinese. But there have been regular attacks against the Chinese. While most of these attacks have so far been carried out by Baloch freedom fighters, there have also been instances of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants targeting the Chinese. The attack on Chinese engineers and workers working on the Dasu Dam project has cost Pakistan heavy in terms of compensations demanded by the Chinese. The recent attacks in Noshki, Panjgur and Kech in Balochistan would have certainly set off alarm bells in China. The massive protests in Gwadar would also have spooked the Chinese. Add to this the unsettled conditions in Afghanistan, where the Taliban are showing no signs of curbing Islamist militants targeting both China and Pakistan. There are, therefore, serious doubts on how much private Chinese investment will come to Pakistan under the second phase of CPEC. If the second phase doesn’t take off, Pakistan will find it difficult, even impossible, to service the Chinese debt.

Clearly, the economic glue to the China-Pakistan relationship is coming unstuck. But it would be a mistake to reach the conclusion that China-Pakistan strategic relationship is getting fractured. There is absolutely no sign of that because neither side can afford a divorce, or even a separation. This is despite the fact that there are people in Pakistan who are now realising the perils and pitfalls of getting in too deep with the Chinese. But efforts to balance the relationship with China with the relationship with the West is easier said than done. For now, for Pakistan, China is the only game in town. The Chinese too are in no position to turn their back on Pakistan. Chances are they will use their leverages to extract whatever they can but they will not let things reach break point. Even so, the first signs of strains are starting to appear in the Chi-Pak relationship, and all the spin being put on Imran Khan’s visit to Beijing isn’t going to cover this up.

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The main themes of the National Security Policy are national cohesion, securing an economic future, defence and territorial integrity, internal security, foreign policy in a changing world and human security.

The original version of the policy will remain classified. Unveiling the public version of the policy, which was separately endorsed by the National Security Committee and the Cabinet last month, Prime Minister Khan said that the previous governments had failed to strengthen Pakistan’s economy.

The national security has been clearly explained in the new original 100-page document, he said, adding that the policy articulates a citizen-centric framework, placing economic security at its core and seeking a secure and economically resilient Pakistan.

Khan said that Pakistan, since its evolution, has had a one-dimensional security policy where the focus was on the military. “For the first time, the National Security Division has developed a consensus document which defines national security in a proper way,” he added.

The powerful army, which has ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 70 plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in the matters of security and foreign policy.

The five-year-policy document covering a period between 2022-26, is being propped up by the Khan government as the country’s first-ever strategy paper of its kind that spells out the national security vision and guidelines for the attainment of those goals.

“We need to realise that our biggest security is when the people become stakeholders and stand up for the country. And this can be achieved through inclusive growth. We need to develop as a nation, not in sections, Khan said.

Earlier, National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf said that Pakistan, under the new policy, will be shifting to a Comprehensive National Security Framework with the aim of ensuring the safety, security, and dignity of the citizens of Pakistan. “The policy puts economic security at the core. A stronger economy would create additional resources which would then be distributed to further bolster military and human security, he said.

The report in the Express Tribune, quoting the Pak NSA, said the policy places the Jammu and Kashmir issue as the core of the bilateral relationship. When asked about the message it sends to India, Yusuf said: it tells India to do the right thing and jump on the bandwagon to benefit from regional connectivity to uplift our peoples. It also tells India, if you don’t want to do the right thing, it will be a loss to the entire region, but most of all India.

Peace with immediate neighbours and economic diplomacy will be the central theme of Pakistan’s foreign policy in the new National Security Policy, the newspaper reported.

Hindutva and Kashmir

There is the mention of ‘Hindutva politics’, which needs hostility to Pakistan as the centre-point of India’s internal politics. There is also a fear expressed that an India driven by this ideology could try enforcing one-sided solutions. Or warfare could break out, whether conventional or, interestingly, of the ‘no-contact’ variety.

On the foreign front, the new policy highlights disinformation, Hindutva, and the use of aggression for domestic political gains as key threats from India, the Express Tribune newspaper reported.

Pakistan has blamed “Indias hegemonic designs” and the “unresolved Kashmir dispute” for the strained bilateral ties. In its first ever National Security Policy, Pakistan said: “Towards the immediate east, bilateral ties have been stymied as a consequence of the unresolved Kashmir dispute and India’s hegemonic designs”.

Jammu and Kashmir finds only a small mention in the document which runs into 48 pages. “A just and peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains a vital national security interest for Pakistan. India’s illegal and unilateral actions of August 2019 have been rejected by the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

“Indian occupation forces continue to undertake human rights abuses and oppression through war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocidal acts in IIOJK. In addition, India continues to create false propaganda around the Kashmiri resistance to hide its illegal actions.

“Pakistan remains steadfast in its moral, diplomatic, political, and legal support to the people of Kashmir until they achieve their right to self-determination guaranteed by the international community as per UN Security Council resolutions,” the document said.

India’s Position

India has told Pakistan that it desires normal neighbourly relations with Islamabad in an environment free of terror, hostility and violence.

During the first term of Narendra Modi in 2014, the relations took a positive turn when he announced his intentions to have cordial relations with Pakistan. He had also visited Islamabad in 2015 unannounced to attend a marriage ceremony in Sharif’s family.

However, the relations between the two countries turned south following the horrific 2016 Uri attacks in which four terrorists launched grenade attacks on Indian Army soldiers in the Indian’s Jammu and Kashmir on 18 September. The attack killed 19 soldiers and injured 19–30 others. It was reported as “the deadliest attack on security forces in Kashmir in two decades”. Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed was involved in the planning and execution of the attack.

Comments

Kashmir merits only 113 words and is among the smaller segments in this plan document is curious. There is no demand for the reversal of the 5 August 2019 changes made by India in the status of Jammu & Kashmir.

The emphasis is on the economy being main bedrock of national security. Pakistan is hurting economically, with internal instability and global indifference. It is involved in humiliating negotiations with the IMF for further disbursals from the sanctioned loan. Pakistan’s 11th since 1993.

Recently Imran Khan said that Pakistan’s economy was in a better place than India’s! At the same time it has asked for the IMF Board meeting to be deferred to the end of this month, as it weighs the risks in losing this bailout or raising prices of goods, utilities, taxes, and passing a new law guaranteeing the autonomy of its central bank.

This emphasis on the economy, internal stability, threat from sectarian strife and internal separatist movements underlines a much more inward-looking Pakistan than we have seen for three decades.

An assessmento fhte world situation covers Afghanistan, China, India and ends with Iran. All others are covered under ‘Rest of the World’. The US features under Rest of the World.

On America, it says Pakistan does not subscribe to “camp politics”. Considering that Pajistan was once a member of multi-national military-strategic alliances with the US, and are still treaty-bound security allies, it is acutely aware that US President Jowe Biden is only showing indifference to Pakistan.

Pakistan is hurting, looking inwards, and realises it has lost global stature and friendship with the US.

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“I want to ask our neighbouring country as to why they want to destabilize, divide our country? Earlier there was no airstrike, surgical strike but we did and gave a message that we can kill terrorists in our territory and across the border also,” Rajnath Singh said.

Last week, in an indirect attack on Pakistan, Singh said, “India is such a country in the world that has never attacked any country nor occupied one inch of the land of any country. If we wanted, we could have occupied their land in the 1971 war. I won’t take the name of that country.”

He also attacked Islamabad for naming its missiles after invaders who attacked India. In response, he said that India has named its missile arsenal after names like Sant, Prithvi and Agni.

“The ones who attacked India, Pakistan keep their missiles name’s on that like Ghazni, Ghauri. Whereas, India’s missiles names are Prithvi, Agni, Sant, which was tested yesterday. I congratulate the DRDO for this,” he added.

On December 16, India celebrated 50 years of its win against Pakistan and the liberation of Bangladesh. India won the war against Pakistan in just 13 days on December 16, 1971, with more than 93,000 Pakistani prisoners of war, when West Pakistan’s military forces surrendered in Bangladesh.

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