A major change in American foreign policy was brought about by Donald Trump’s reelection as president, which had an effect on international alliances, economic stability, and security dynamics. Nine key challenges that characterize America’s new foreign policy environment under Trump’s leadership are examined in this essay.

Allies Believing less in American leadership

The United States has been putting its own interests ahead of those of its longstanding allies under Trump. Traditional allies like Canada, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have lost faith as a result of this change. These countries are beginning to wonder if they can depend on the United States for economic and military assistance. Trump’s transactional approach to alliances, in which he frequently demands monetary reimbursement for U.S. military deployment and security promises, is partially to blame for the decline in confidence.

This approach was frequently expressed by Trump himself, who said, “The United States has been taking advantage for far too long.” Our allies must make the payment. NATO must take greater accountability for its own defense. Trump’s “America First” philosophy is evident in this statement, as he directly ties financial contributions to U.S. military support. Tensions were raised by his repeated criticism of NATO allies-especially Germany and France-for failing to achieve defense budget goals, which furthered the perception that the United States was prioritizing financial gains over international alliances.

Concerns about this strategy have been voiced by world leaders.

Unpredictability and Short-Termism

In reaction to U.S. unpredictability, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “Europe must take its fate into its own hands,” suggesting a possible move toward more autonomous European security capabilities.

Unpredictability and short-termism are hallmarks of Trump’s foreign policy. Both allies and enemies are now uncertain as a result of his capricious acts, which include putting tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico and challenging defense agreements. Other countries find it difficult to develop long-term plans because they are unable to forecast how the United States will respond to world events.

Regarding this topic, one of Trump’s most well-known statements was, “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.” His short-term, direct approach to international relations is best illustrated by this statement, which he made amid his trade battle with China. Markets are volatile as a result of his unconventional economic policies, which have caused panic throughout the world. Leaders of the European Union and other allies were left scrambling to comprehend U.S. goals and modify their strategy in response to these words.

French President Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, stated that “the world cannot longer rely on the United States alone to maintain peace and security.” This opinion highlights the ambiguity brought about by Trump’s erratic choices as well as the general apprehension among European leaders regarding the future of American leadership in the world.

Global Panic and Trade Imbalances

Global markets are uneasy due to the new U.S. policy, which include reciprocal tariffs. Because they foresee recessionary pressures in the U.S. economy, foreign investors are cautious about U.S. obligations. A global trade war has resulted from Trump’s “America First” trade strategy, which has affected economies all around the world and called into question the fundamentals of free trade.

Trump’s forthright remarks about trade demonstrate his combative approach: “We are the piggy bank of the world, and we have been taken advantage of for years. Time for a fair deal now. In an attempt to combat what he saw as unfair trade practices, he imposed unilateral tariffs on China, Mexico, and the European Union. However, these actions also led to retaliatory actions that affected U.S. exports and increased economic instability worldwide.

Concerns about the trade war have been expressed by world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, who said, “The trade war must stop, and both sides must start respecting international rules and norms.” Global dissatisfaction with Trump’s protectionist policies, particularly their disruption of long-standing trade frameworks, is reflected in this statement.

Possible Conflict in Military Partnerships

Allies like Japan are worried about whether the United States would uphold its security commitments in light of Trump’s position on NATO and military treaties. Although the United States has always been a pillar of NATO, Trump’s remarks regarding burden sharing and possible exit have raised questions. As a result, military alliances are being reevaluated, and European countries are being urged to become more independent.

In 2018, Trump made a particularly telling statement about NATO: “NATO is obsolete, and we should have pulled out long ago.” European leaders became alarmed by this and started thinking about other security arrangements in case U.S. involvement decreased. The idea that the United States will not always be left to shoulder the majority of defense obligations was strengthened by his frequent calls for NATO countries to fulfill 2% defense budget targets.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, on the other hand, stated that “NATO remains the cornerstone of transatlantic security, and its future is in the hands of its member states.” His remark demonstrated the alliance’s will to stand firm in the face of Trump’s demands that allies increase their financial contributions.

North Korea and China’s Strategic Concessions

Strategic compromises made by Trump in an effort to negotiate on his terms have the potential to erode U.S. allies and increase Taiwan’s vulnerability. He uses a combination of negotiation and force with China and North Korea, which could lead to agreements that jeopardize the interests of regional allies. This has raised concerns about what allies can do to protect their economic and security interests beyond flattery and compromises.

Trump’s unrestricted desire to meet with Kim Jong-un of North Korea caused controversy. Trump famously declared, “I get along well with Kim Jong-un. I think we can work something out.” However, detractors claimed that this strategy diminished South Korea’s security concerns and gave North Korea more confidence.

“The trade war between China and the United States is unnecessary, and we both need to find a balanced solution that benefits both nations,” said Chinese President Xi Jinping in a statement about U.S.-China ties. His remarks expressed concern over Trump’s unpredictable handling of such delicate issues while also reflecting the ongoing talks between the two nations.

America’s Allies Must Become Stronger

Allies are encouraged to create independent military infrastructure, establish new alliances, and reconsider their economic plans in light of the ambiguity surrounding U.S. promises. To combat global dangers without depending entirely on the United States, this entails investing in regional security frameworks and diversifying trading partners.

Ursula von der Leyen, the German defense minister, underlined that Europe needs to be more accountable for its own security. The United States is no longer our exclusive option.

Discussions regarding European defense autonomy, including possible partnerships with other nations like China and Russia, as well as the development of autonomous security frameworks, have increased as a result of this sentiment.

Concerned about the United States’ withdrawal from the Asia-Pacific area, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan said, “Japan must work to ensure its security, with or without U.S. support.” This illustrates Japan’s increasing recognition that, given the ambiguity surrounding U.S. promises, it could need to strengthen its own military capabilities.

Retaliatory Actions Regarding American Economic Policies

Allies may think about retaliating against US trade policy with economic leverage. Controlling “choke points” in trade lines, which carry a large amount of America’s imports, such as nuclear fuels, metal supplies, and medications, may be one way to do this. Negotiations with the United States may benefit from such actions.

Trump’s trade policies have drawn criticism from the European Union. “The EU will take action to defend its interests against unilateral U.S. tariffs, but we still hope for dialogue and constructive relations,” said EU President Ursula von der Leyen. Her remarks highlight the EU’s attempts to uphold its economic interests while criticizing the US for its trade policies.

Iran also adopted a more assertive posture under President Hassan Rouhani, declaring, “We will use our oil exports as leverage against the U.S. sanctions.” We will take action if the United States violates international agreements. This comment highlights the dangers of a worldwide economic stalemate as well as the increasing use of economic retaliation against the United States.

Europe Must Close the Gaps in Its Armed Forces

In reaction to changes in U.S. policy, Europe is expected to increase its joint debt in order to fund its defense expenditures and potentially make investments in its own nuclear deterrent. It will take years to close these gaps, though, and will involve large expenditures for strategic planning and military modernization. European countries are already debating ways to take on more defense-related responsibilities, which could lessen dependency on the United States.

“Europe must develop its own defense capability,” said French President Macron. We cannot wait for every security issue to be led by the United States. This was a clear request for Europe to improve its military prowess and reconsider its reliance on American defense.

The Need for a Different International System

The need for Europe and Asia to establish a new security structure separate from the United States is increasing as a result of America’s withdrawal from long-standing alliances. This could entail new alliances and regional cooperation centered on mutual security assurances and common interests. A counterbalance to the dominance of superpowers like China and Russia, such an alternate order would aid in regional stabilization.

Xi Jinping, the president of China, has often called for a more multipolar global order. “We need to shift toward a more equitable and balanced global governance structure,” he stated. Without any one power controlling the others, nations must work together on an equitable basis. His comments demonstrate China’s increasing desire to establish a new global order where the United States has less sway.

Prospects for the Future

Global alliances and security institutions are expected to undergo additional changes in the upcoming years. The ability of countries to innovate and adjust to the changing geopolitical environment will determine how well they can handle these changes. Other areas must think about how to preserve stability and foster collaboration in a world where established alliances are being reassessed as the United States continues to uphold its “America First” strategy.

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Unsavoury Advices

On 22 March, China sent unsavoury advice to the Philippines over its decision to further boost bilateral relations with the US. The reasons cited by Secretary Blinken while in Manila, was China’s “provocative actions” in the region, the US diplomat was confident that it would “promote peace and stability in the South China Sea.” These assertions were just too much for Xi’s strategists to swallow comfortably. Naturally, with growing tension in the regional waters particularly around the contested Spratly Island, China views this as an ‘unnecessary intervention’ from the US. China also felt unhappy with the news from Japan that it plans to convert its 16 seaports and airports into dual-use military infrastructure. Global Times in a commentary on 29^th March termed the Japanese action as “Japan’s resurgence of militarism”. It appeared particularly infuriated that the new plans are actively promoted by the US in line with its Indo-Pacific strategy.

Not long back China had sent detailed advice on how Taiwan should plan and conduct its national election. In fact, it termed them as a regional election in its territory of Taiwan. From time to time, China has felt like advising many countries about their domestic policies. The list included major countries like Australia and India as well. Its ‘pearls’ of advice to India have special considerations about the conduct of diplomacy, foreign trade, state-to-state relations, multilateral military exercises, and of course, a list of restricted locations that must remain out of bounds in any case. China does not restrict its ‘advisories’ to comments from the Foreign Office but mostly it is pursued in great earnest by its state agencies and deeply controlled media.

ALSO READ: Chinese Influence Operations

The world has a great spectacle to witness the Chinese interference in the just concluded Taiwan national election where China pushed its state machinery to create a massive disinformation campaign discrediting the Democratic Progressive Party, the ruling alliance, and promoting its choice of candidates. It offered free trips to the mainland for a ‘better understanding’ of the perspective. When the election drew closer it even sent muffled threats to voters to ‘choose carefully’ as it imposed import restrictions under the garb of trade investigations.

In an aggressive show of strength, its fighters continue to breach the Median Line over the Taiwan Straits, once assumed as a sacrosanct air boundary between China and Taiwan. Its ships have dangerously attacked and blocked tiny Philippine boats with water cannons knocking them out of action on multiple occasions. It continues to send its ‘fishing boats’ further deeper into Senkaku Island raising alarms of territorial violation from the Japanese. Significantly, China conducts its affairs the way it desires, at the same time expecting everyone else to follow its directives. That’s being closest to how one can define the word hypocrites!

Raising Security Concerns

Countries in the neighbourhood of China not only feel threatened by its continued aggressive behaviour but are extremely worried about deteriorating future course. Japan’s National Security Council presented a very disturbing picture of the growing Chinese threat to Japan’s sovereignty. It was highlighted that with its current capacity, Japan would not be able to sustain a conflict with China. This strongly drove Japan to find a fix which was illustrated when they changed their national security outlook in December 2022 and dispensed with terms like Self Defence Force enshrined in Article 9 of their constitution. This was one of the reasons why Japan was so interested in getting NATO to set its foot there through a first-of-a-kind ‘Liaison Office’. Australia on the other hand was another major neutral power which decided it was time to ‘change course’. It boosted its defence investments, critically planned to adopt new platforms like nuclear submarines and almost rushed into the security grouping of AUKUS along with the UK and the US.

Deepening security concerns from China also took their toll on ASEAN. For the first time it decided to institute a dedicated commission for dialogue and discussion under the collective security approach for its members. Privately many ASEAN members have expressed alarming concerns over China’s hostile approach towards them. At one time ASEAN had entirely focussed on China to draw economic benefits, but the dramatic change in the situation demands credible management of security vulnerabilities with the same country. China has somehow been successful in creating a serious security quandary among almost all its neighbours. In global geopolitics unpredictability and unsavoury approaches are highly despised. It pushes countries further to find newer ways to preserve their sovereignty and dignity.

In such an unstable environment, countries joining hands in a promising formal security alliance is surely not out of context. If that happens, it will be a watershed moment for Asia and a point of no return. Xi’s chosen advisors may hurriedly dismiss such a scenario, and clearly, it is not an easy choice anyway. However, the perception is – they may be doomed if they choose and surely doomed if they don’t. It is a dark reality about China’s bloated ambitions and sadly for it, early signs of countries coming together have already begun to show!

Unmistakable Similarities

Existing home truths point to unmistakable similarities between Asian security challenges and what Europe was going through at the fag end of the Second World War. Noticeably, China is striving to get the aura of the erstwhile Soviet Union. In the near term, it wanted to be counted as ‘equal’ to the US while carrying a secret ambition of soon replacing it as the most powerful country in the world. The hanging fear of war among European nations at that time seemed replaced by a growing security threat among many Asian countries today. A pre-security alliance before NATO already existed in the form of the ‘Brussels Pact’, whose charter was to ensure “Collective Self-Defence” for its five members. Asia has already witnessed the formation of QUAD and AUKUS with a deep security undertone;

The US formed an integral part of NATO since its inception while it held special relations with the UK. In the Asian context, the US already maintains a strong presence both politically and militarily, while it holds special relations with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The Soviets have tried to strengthen their influence with Eastern Europe. China does not have that buffer but it has someone like North Korea which is much more powerful than maybe what Belarus is for Russia today. A formal alliance like NATO in Asia may not be imminent but it may also be just a ‘few events’ away.

Asian Security Alliance

If and when the deteriorating security environment dictates the formation of a formal alliance, say an ‘Asian Security Alliance’(ASA), the driving purpose would only be to ensure ‘collective security’ for its members. It would be undoubtedly looking for the NATO construct as an inspiration, especially the nuances of Article 5 and Article 10, which define the alliance’s commitment to security for its members and modalities for membership. However, it would also present an opportunity to incorporate measures ab initio which are seen as creating hurdles and conflict within NATO today. The existing ingredients definitely indicate that an ASA would probably be a reality sooner than later while being a much-improved version of NATO, offering better security resolutions.

NATO has served one great purpose – its members haven’t seen a major war for more than half a century. This will be one of the most important stimulations towards the formation of the ASA. However, ASA must look to ensure its actions are – ‘time relevant’, unlike NATO it must dispense with the condition of ‘unanimity’. It should be able to undertake timely preventive military action with say even a 2/3rd majority, while punitive military actions could be undertaken with a 3/4th majority. Such an arrangement would obviate a ‘decision dilemma’ within the organisation which at critical times could be purposefully induced by the prime adversary through the weakest link and prevent unanimity from ever coming across, eventually defeating the entire raison d’être of the alliance.

ALSO READ: China’s Cyber Ranges for Attack and Defence

The membership should remain ‘by invite’ and only for those who meet the strict requirements to which its members are supposed to commit especially funding and national military spending. To give strength to this multi-nation grouping, it may propose that each member must get into a bilateral security commitment as a prerequisite to join the grouping. First, it would remove the scope of conflict among members, and second, it would fully commit them in the time of need removing all scope of geopolitical influences. It would enhance every member’s confidence that their national security challenges will be addressed promptly and cannot keep waiting for phoney approvals from the UNSC or unanimity of views. Such security arrangements are probably becoming more relevant as the UN has become hostage to a select few who continue to stall popular action time and again by their veto. This would create a new powerful grouping taking its place as a major pole, simultaneously addressing the yearning for multipolarity in global affairs. It will considerably diminish the idea of the sole superpower and prevent the urge for global policing.

Global Realities

In the existing dynamics, the ASA appears much more capable of stabilising the security situation in the Asian theatre. It will allow every member irrespective of their size and potential to better commit its national resources for its people without ever having to worry about bullying by anyone. It will definitely not be against anyone and remain very attractive for everyone! The charter would make it possible for even Taiwan and China to be members simultaneously, as long as both commit to abide by the bilateral security commitment of ‘no war’ and coming to fully help the other in case of any threat. Those who would find it ‘uncomfortable to join’ will have no locus standi to criticise it, as the entry though conditional, is ‘not denied’ for anyone. The global realities have given one prominent message to all that practice of shadow boxing and cold war tactics only create greater complications, sucking in more and more resources. A plain-vanilla grouping is what addresses the problem, especially against wayward adversaries and unpredictable proxies. When the scale of reprisal and fear of suffering become obvious it would create invisible guard rails keeping lunatics on globally accepted behavioural norms. Pundits in China must be strategising their next move to have a greater destabilising impact upon their chosen adversary, but they must also remain watchful, their every act is only pushing the tiniest of countries to gain stronger resolve to stand up and guard their national pride. China may end up being the greatest contributor towards the creation of an eventual security alliance like ASA, without ever qualifying as a member of the same!

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While the Goa Maritime Conclave sought to project the Indian Navy’s cooperative engagement at the strategic-operational level, by providing a forum for the Chiefs-of-Navy and Heads of Maritime Agencies in the Indian Ocean Region, the IPRD, on the other hand, was the principal manifestation of the Navy’s international engagement at the strategic-level, addressing ‘holistic’ maritime security issues across the Indo-Pacific.

The first two editions of IPRD were held in 2018 and 2019 respectively at New Delhi.  IPRD 2020 was cancelled due to the Covid-19 outbreak. The third edition of IPRD was held in 2021 in online mode and the fourth edition was conducted, reverting to a physical format, at New Delhi in 2022.

Theme of IPRD-2023

The overarching theme of IPRD-2023 was “Geopolitical Impacts upon Indo-Pacific Maritime Trade and Connectivity”. This year’s edition of the IPRD built upon the previous one, which focussed upon ‘Operationalising the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI)’, by specifically addressing the ‘Trade, Connectivity and Maritime Transport’ pillar of the IPOI.

IPRD-2023 explored geopolitical impacts upon Indo-Pacific maritime trade and connectivity through six professional sessions spread over a three-day period. 

The sessions were:

Nodes of maritime connectivity;

China’s impact vis-à-vis maritime connectivity across the Indo-Pacific;

Maritime connectivity through shipping and trade;

Maritime connectivity through shipping and trade (Part 2);

Private industry in the safety and security of Indo-Pacific maritime trade and shipping; and

Maintaining a rules-based, safe, and secure Indo-Pacific.

Eminent speakers from 16 countries and representatives of the various embassies and high commissions attended and offered diverse regional perspectives on the subject.

Navy Chief’s Address

Speaking at the Indo-Pacific Regional dialogue organised by the Indian Navy, navy chief Admiral R Hari Kumar said that violations of established rules pose a danger to good order at sea. He described the security situation in the South China Sea as “fragile.” He warned that the region is the most militarised in the world and a “contestation” at sea can have adverse economic and social consequences.

“The fragile security situation in the South China Sea, in addition to the happenings of violations of established codes of conduct or confidence building measures, pose a clear and present danger to good order and discipline at sea,” Admiral Kumar said.

The comments were a rare direct reference to the situation in the South China sea and come at a time when China and Pakistan are undertaking large-scale naval drills in the Arabian Sea.

He said that more than 50 warships of extra regional forces are deployed in the Indian Ocean Region on various missions, including anti-piracy patrols off the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indo-Pacific has a significant naval presence, which can lead to confrontation and contestation.

“Owing to the increased presence of multinational forces, and differing interpretations of international laws, there is this fear that the region’s ‘global commons’ can change to ‘contested seas’,” he said. The navy chief added that this contestation at sea “can have adverse consequences for security-physical, social as well as economic”.

Admiral Kumar made a case for greater collaboration between nations in the maritime nation. “We are traversing through a contested present into an uncertain future. The future of global commons hinges on cooperative efforts of nations,” he said.

He said that cooperative or collaborative systems amongst like-minded maritime nations are essential for a stable future. He also made a strong case for developing interoperability and trust between nations, saying this requires a sustained and continued engagement.

Chinese Threat

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) presents the greatest challenge to the Indian Navy in the Indo-Pacific region. The PLAN is supported by the China Coast Guard and the Chinese maritime militia in furthering Chinese national interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s friendship with Pakistan is of concern as they together present a new challenge to India in the maritime domain. India considers the Indian Ocean region as the key to India’s security and also aims to build credibility in the Indo-Pacific.

The dispute over Taiwan and China’s aggressive posture in the South and East China Seas, and China’s rivalry with America for dominance in those waters has brought the Indo-Pacific region centrestage. China’s ‘grey zone’ operations against US maritime forces and its allies have further sharpened rivalries in the Indo-Pacific.

India’s Linkages with the Indo-Pacific

The Indian government’s has often enunciated a vision of a free, open, inclusive, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

The Indo-Pacific is the gateway to the Indian Ocean from the east with crucial trade and security implications. Hence its is of vital interest to India as also to ASEAN countries. India has linkages with many countries of southeast Asia and east Asia. The Indian Navy has been exercising with navies of the ASEAN region for many years. The Malabar series of exercises include participation by the United States navy and Japanese Self Defence Forces. Ther Indian Navy has exercised not only in the Bay of Bengal but in the western Pacific as well.

India’s ‘Look East’ policy was enunciated in the early 1990s, keeping in mind its maritime and security interests. The same has transformed into ‘Act East’ policy. In pursuit of this policy, the Indian Navy has engaged its counterparts in the Indo-Pacific by way of maritime military cooperation and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Piracy, maritime terrorism, maritime crimes like drug and human trafficking, are some of the other threats which the Indian Navy has to be deal with. Other non-traditional threats include climate change-induced sea-level rise and maritime pollution. State actors in particular are challenging the rules-based, liberal international order and need to be dealt with.

Indian Navy’s Approach

The Indian Navy provides maritime security for safe trade and monitors vessels that enter or leave the Indian Ocean region through the Malacca Strait, with the Andaman and Nicobar Command’s undertaking regular surveillance. Coordinated naval patrols with Bangladesh, Thai and Indonesian navies have been institutionalised. Maritime partnership exercises are conducted with Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar, in bilateral or multilateral formats.

Indian naval ships, submarines and aircraft have undertaken long-range overseas deployments, across the Indo-Pacific as far as Japan, Hawaii and Australia.

Towards becoming a net security provider in the region, the Indian Navy has been helping smaller maritime neighbours and providing platforms and equipment for their navies. Neibhbours have appreciated India’s help in training, repairs, expertise in hydrography, maritime surveys and cartographic assistance.

The Indian Navy is the first responder in the region for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. In the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami, earthquakes, cyclones, and pandemics the Indian Navy’s contribution with relief supplies with professionalism has created yremendous goodwill.

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The Indo-Pacific region stretches from the coastlines of East Africa to the western Americas. It is today a vital oceanic space comprising critical chokepoints that carry a majority of the world’s trade. The chokepoints are situated at key geopolitical flashpoints. The Indo-Pacific is now perceived as vital for energy security, maritime security, and maritime commerce. The Indian Navy is is a formidable and potent force to provide such security in the region.

The Indian Navy is preparing a 175-ship plan (25 ships more than its current strength of 150) to particularly deal with the Chinese threat in the Indian Ocean.

India has strategic partnership with the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asian countries, and West Asian countries. India is also involved in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) featuring three partners in the US, Japan, and Australia.

The Indian Navy is playing an important role in realising the Indian government’s vision of a free, open, inclusive, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

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This is also important for sustaining our Maritime Dominance in all three geographical expanses of the IOR. The requirement of a third Aircraft Carrier for the Indian Navy has also been acknowledged by the Standing Committee on Defence.

‘INS Vikrant stands testimony to our nation’s efforts towards complete indigenization of our Armed Forces. With this, India has become part of the elite group of Nations possessing the niche capability to indigenously design and build an Aircraft Carrier.

The Carrier Battle Group (CBG), of which the Aircraft Carrier is the central entity, is a means of projecting maritime power at sea and from the sea.

It is a self-contained and composite force capable of undertaking an entire range of tasks that no other platform/shore-based aircraft can undertake. The CBG is capable of providing “persistent air power” in a region at extremely short notice and has the inherent flexibility and mobility to shift to a new theatre of operations in 48 to 72 hours. 

“Further, while the requirement for a Third Carrier is being actively considered by the Govt, the Navy is already ‘underway’ in bringing the nascent imperatives to the drawing board. “.

On the Indian Navy’s ‘capacity’ and ‘capabilities’ with reference to the dimensions such as surface, subsurface, aerospace, and cyber on the one hand and spheres such as ‘brown water’ and ‘blue water’ on the other, Admiral Kumar said, “IN platforms, by their role, are primarily categorized as Bluewater and Brown water platforms.

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While outlining the situation in the Indian Ocean Region and the Indo-Pacific, the Navy chief also said the Ukraine conflict has taught India to be self-reliant in Defence production. The nearly 10-month-old war has not impacted the Navy’s procurements.

Giving a low down on the increasing Chinese visibility in the strategically important Indian Ocean, Admiral Kumar said there are a lot of Chinese ships in the region including research vessels, warships and merchant ships. The Indian Navy is keeping a close watch, he said adding there are more than 60 other extra-regional forces also present in the ‘vital region.’

Elaborating upon the importance of the Indian Ocean, Kumar said large amount of trade transits through the sea lanes of the region besides energy supply of several nations. The Indian Navy keeps track of the ships and will not allow vessels inimical to the country’s interest, the Navy chief said.

Informing that Chinese fishing vessels operate all over the world including the Indian Ocean Region, Admiral Kumar said, “our job is to track them through robust surveillance and not allow them to fish in India’s exclusive economic zone.”

On the issue of the Quad formation, the Navy chief said it is not a military treaty.  Like-minded countries having democratic traditions have come together to form the grouping, Admiral Kumar said.  China has all along criticised the Quad grouping claiming it will lead to the militarisation of the Indo-Pacific Region.  US, Japan, India and Australia are part of the Quad grouping and regularly hold the Malabar series of naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific.

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Immediately after the great International Fleet review that Japan hosted on November 6 at Sagami Bay, four Quad partners – Australia, India, Japan, and the United States – will commence the Malabar naval exercise off Yokosuka on Tuesday (November 8). This exercise will conclude on November 18.

The Navy chiefs of the four Quad countries met in Tokyo on November 5. They exchanged views on “further enhancing inter-operability” in future editions of the Malabar multilateral naval exercise.

The timing of both the IFR and Malabar exercise is significant, coming as they do in the wake of China’s increasing aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific and North Korea firing record numbers of missiles.

Incidentally, the IFR marked the 70th anniversary of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) founding. Around 40 warships from 13 countries came together in Sagami Bay, off Tokyo.

The naval parade involved 38 vessels, 18 from friendly countries such as the United States, South Korea, Britain, Australia, Singapore, India, and Thailand. Thirty-three aircraft flew overhead, including submarine-hunting patrol planes and helicopters. India’s two frontline warships, INS Shivalik and INS Kamorta were in this parade.

Overseeing the parade, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Japan and like-minded nations must be prepared for situations in which “some countries trample on the peace and security of others through the use or threat of force.”

In a speech aboard the MSDF helicopter carrier Izumo, Kishida reiterated Tokyo’s plans to “fundamentally strengthen” Japan’s defense capabilities within five years.

His assertion that “unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, such as the recent invasion of Ukraine, must never be tolerated in any region of the world” is also aimed at China, which is threatening to take over Taiwan Kishida forcibly and is staking territorial claims on the Japanese islands in the East China Sea.

However, it should be noted that the IFR, by its nature, is a symbolic and friendly gesture in which the host countries invite even the navies of the countries with which it has adversarial relations.

In this context, it was significant that China declined the Japanese invitation to send its vessels to the IFR. And equally substantial was Japan’s withdrawal of its invitation to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

It was clear that by hosting the IFR, Japan signaled that it is firmly committed to the vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Tokyo would like the international community to cement trust in its Self-Defense Forces as a proactive, reliable security partner, particularly in the maritime domain, where the power balance appears to be shifting toward China’s advantage of late.

That explains why Japan now consistently sends MSDF ships to similar events overseas, dispatches forces for engagements under its Indo-Pacific Deployment operations, and is one of the biggest supporters of exercises hosted by organizations such as the Western Pacific Naval Symposium, ASEAN Regional Forum, and ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus.

QUAD At The Malabar Military Drills

In contrast, however, the Malabar exercise is a proper military exercise. Over the next ten days, it will see the four Quad navies in action. Reportedly, the exercise will witness “high-tempo” drills in multiple domains and complex surface, sub-surface, and air operations, including live firing drills.

Apart from the ships (Shivalik and Kamotra), the Indian Navy is deploying other naval assets, including P-8I long-range maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft, in this exercise.

It may be noted that INS Shivalik is a multi-role guided missile stealth frigate, and INS Kamorta is an anti-submarine corvette. Both of them are indigenously produced, reflecting thus the growing capability of India to build its warships. And both of them are part of the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet based at Visakhapatnam.

Incidentally, this will be the 26th edition of the Malabar naval exercise. It started in 1992 as a bilateral drill between the Indian Navy and the US Navy in the Indian Ocean. Japan became a permanent member of the exercise in 2015. And Australia joined in 2020. It is an annual war game taking place in various parts of the Indo-Pacific.

Unmistakably, the continuous rise of the Chinese Navy (PLA Navy) in the Indo-Pacific binds all four countries in joining hands and bringing their armed forces together to develop joint strategies through military exercises. In the maritime domain, it is realized that they must act in unison individually; it is becoming tough to catch up with China’s growing naval prowess.

According to the World Directory of Modern Military Warships (2022), China now ranks second after the United States on the Global Naval Powers Ranking 2022 (India ranks seventh). China also has the largest number of major surface combatants of any navy globally, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 surface ships and submarines. The rate of its annual addition of naval vessels and frigates is the highest in the world.

This policy of acting together by the Quad partners, all concerned over the growing hegemony of China in the Indo-Pacific, was also manifested last week, with India and Australia conducting a bilateral maritime exercise off the Indian coast of Visakhapatnam in the Bay of Bengal.

Australia’s flagship regional engagement activity, Indo-Pacific Endeavour (IPE), arrived in Visakhapatnam on October 30. It comprised two ships (HMAS Adelaide and Anzac), helicopters, and 1,500 personnel. The Indian contingent in the exercise included INS Ships Jalashwa and Kavaratti. The exercise concluded on November 5.

Terming India and Australia as the guardians of the flanks of the Indian Ocean, visiting Australian Navy Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Jonathan Earley said that since the Indo-Pacific is marked by the ongoing “big power muscle movement,” it is vital that India and Australia must train together to build trust and confidence while stressing on Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) for the region.

He said good progress had been made on MDA and the exchange of information on the movement of military vessels in the region, a growing area of cooperation among the Quad countries. “There is an opportunity for that to grow in more classified domains.

That is ongoing… The enthusiasm and the motivation to share more are certainly there,” Earley added, adding that expanding surveillance in the P-8I maritime patrol aircraft and India’s recent acquisition of MH-60R helicopters build commonality.

He highlighted how the Quad countries have several common military platforms, with India acquiring more and more military hardware from the US. “The recent reciprocal exchange of P-8 aircraft exercises between the two countries had gone “exceptionally well,” said the Australian Admiral.

India’s Shifting Focus From Land To Maritime Power

Incidentally, the Indo-Australian exercise was taking place during India’s second Naval Commanders’ Conference in New Delhi (October 31  to November 3), which, among other challenges in the Indian Ocean region, is of vital concern to India, did focus on Chinese maritime activities.

The conference, addressed by India’s defense minister Rajnath Singh, new Chief of defense staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan, and the Navy Chief Admiral Hari Kumar, focused on how the Indian Navy would remain “a combat-ready, credible, cohesive, and future-proof force.”

Admiral Hari Kumar is on record to have stated that China remains a formidable challenge and has increased its presence not only along India’s land borders but also in the maritime domain by leveraging anti-piracy operations to normalize its naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

“At any point, we have anything between five to eight Chinese Navy units, be it warships or research vessels, and a host of Chinese fishing vessels operating in the IOR. We keep an eye on them and see how they are undertaking their activities in the IOR”, according to the Indian Navy Chief.

The IOR, which includes the Middle East, the eastern coast of Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, is a significant region of interest for the Indian Navy. More than 70% of the country’s imports and exports pass through sea lanes in this region. Therefore, the growing Chinese naval presence in the IOR seriously threatens India’s vital security interests.

In recent years, Indian strategic planners have rediscovered the importance of maritime power for the country’s security. Empires have risen and fallen as they lost command of the seas, whether the Persian, Napoleon, or Great Britain.

India was a global player as long as it had maritime interactions from Zanzibar off the coast of Africa to the shores of the Arabian Peninsula, all the way through the Andaman Sea to the mainland and islands of SouthEast Asia through people, faiths, ideas, mythologies, art, architecture and goods. India’s decline started when it became land-centric under the Mughal rule.

Even after independence in 1947, because of the wars with China and Pakistan, this land-centric or the “continentality-mindset” prevailed, with the Indian Navy getting scant attention in the security outlook.

Interestingly, China, like India, also had this continentality – mindset not long ago. But China now has become a foremost maritime power. Therefore, India’s stand is also shifting, as Admiral Arun Prakash, a former Indian Navy Chief, says, from pure ‘Continentality’ to the requisite mix of ‘Continentality-Maritimity.’

Accordingly, the Indian Navy is also growing. As Admiral Hari Kumar highlighted during the Naval Commanders’ conference, the Indian Navy has been strengthened by the recent commissioning of the second carrier INS Vikrant, acquiring of more missile power, two ALH squadrons, and the launch of platforms like Surat, Udaygiri, Dunagiri, Nistar, Nipun, and Nirdeshak.

He further pointed out that the maiden concurrent deployment of Indian Navy ships across six continents on August 15 this year served as valuable signaling to underscore India’s credibility – at home, in the region, and worldwide.

In the last six months, operational deployments have also emphasized India’s credibility, with a footprint covering all major oceans of the world, he added.

All this is said to be India’s signal that it will challenge China’s hegemonistic activities in the Indo-Pacific and the IOR in particular. And in this, India is not alone. India has solid support from Australia, Japan, and the United States in maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.

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The first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier named Fujian was launched at a brief ceremony held at Shanghai’s Jiangnan Shipyard. Fujian is the name of China’s eastern coastal province of Fujian.

The launch was delayed by two months due to the COVID lockdown of Shanghai. It was due to be launched on April 23 around the 73rd anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

The J-15 aircraft which China currently operates for its aircraft carriers were regarded a major problem for the PLAN as each plane weighed about 18 tonnes, too heavy for carriers in the long run. The planes were considered to be a big drag.

Catapult Details

The third aircraft carrier built by China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited has a displacement of more than 80,000 tonnes and is equipped with electromagnetic catapults and arresting devices.

EMALS was regarded by Indian naval experts as a major leap forward by the Chinese navy as currently, only the US has such an advanced one.

It is more energy-efficient and reduces maintenance. It is also used on the US Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class carriers.

China’s other two aircraft carriers, which are equipped with ski-jump take-off ramps, the Fujian features a flat-top flight deck.

The Type 003 warship with a hull number of 18 is the first carrier in China’s fleet to use an electromagnetic catapult to launch planes from the deck, which is faster than the older steam catapult system.

Future Plans

China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was a refit of the Soviet-era ship commissioned in 2012, followed by the indigenously built 2nd aircraft carrier Shandong in 2019.

China plans to have around five aircraft carriers, according to the official media.

The next aircraft carrier China plans to build is expected to be nuclear-powered.

However, recent reports said the speedy launch of the aircraft carriers is resulting in technical issues and repairs delaying their operational readiness.

China’s indigenously built 2nd aircraft carrier Shandong, which was launched in 2019, had to undergo in April its first maintenance and comprehensive examination.

China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, a refit of the Soviet-era ship which was commissioned in 2012, is so far the only Chinese aircraft carrier with initial operational capability or the basic level of combat readiness.

Strategic Significance

However, the launch of Fujian was expected to provide more room for China to operate in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits which have strategic significance for China where it is pitted against periodic US naval incursions, including the aircraft carriers.

Experts say the fast-paced construction of aircraft carriers by China has strategic significance for India too.

The launch of Fujian could provide leeway for PLAN to step out of the region and head to India’s backyard, the Indian Ocean, where the Indian Navy has a sizable presence. China has already expanded its naval base at Djibouti in the horn of Africa to berth aircraft carriers.

China has also acquired the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka as a debt swap for 99 years. It is also modernising Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.

Naval experts say Fujian may take some time for operationalisation. Perhaps PLAN may begin sending aircraft carriers to the Indian Ocean by 2025.

China’s naval buildup comes amid growing geopolitical tensions with the US, which under President Joe Biden is seeking to strengthen ties with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region to counter Beijing’s growing economic influence and military might.

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Moving on to delivering on the promises made in the first year of its establishment, the Quad in its second year, the Summit of the four leaders – US President Joe Biden and Prime Ministers Narendra Modi, Anthony Albanese and Fumio Kishida – announced a large number of initiatives in the joint statement released after the deliberations.

On the political front, the Quad was critical about the situation in North Korea, Myanmar and Afghanistan but in view of India’s reluctance, the joint statement did not criticise Russia. “Quad is a force for good, committed to bringing tangible benefits to the region,” said the statement.

The Quad mentioned its focus on South China Sea but refrained from mentioning China though the tone and tenor of several formulations in the joint statement left no doubt about their determination to counter Beijing’s forward forays. The Pacific Island countries this time came for prominent mention in the backdrop of China signing a military pact with one of them which is geographically close to Australia.

The Quad also dwelt at length on terrorism. It denounced the use of terrorist proxies, emphasised the importance of denying any logistical or military support to terrorist groups and condemned the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks.

But a considerable focus was on emerging and critical technologies where the West is intent on maintaining an advantage over China. Work will begin by the four countries aligning their baseline software security standards and promoting interoperability and security in 5G supplier diversification.

Taking note of Quad’s capacity and vulnerabilities in global semiconductor supply chains, they decided to strengthen cooperation through a new International Standards Cooperation Network (ISCN).

A “Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP)” will be launched with “mitigation” and “adaptation” as its two themes.

A Quad Debt Management Resource Portal will help countries with debt issues.

Quad partners have also collectively committed $524 million for the development of new vaccines to prevent and contain infectious diseases.

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The two sides discussed free and open Indo-Pacific, the ongoing war in Ukraine and counter terrorism cooperation. Discussions also included the developments in the Indian subcontinent (Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Pakistan’s political chaos).

The readouts released by the both sides did not mention India speaking about China directly. However, the US Secretary of Defence did mention China directly. At the 2+2 meeting he said, “The People’s Republic of China is seeking to refashion the region and the international system more broadly in ways that serve its authoritarian interests. But as we operationalise our defence agreements and take our cooperation to the next level, I believe that we can sustain and strengthen a favourable balance of power in the region.”

In focus was building a resilient, regional security architecture.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke about the growing depth and scale of defence partnership. He highlighted how India’s defence supplies from USA has reached $20 billion.

The Ministers reaffirmed the vital role of secure, resilient, reliable, and diverse supply chains for Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET), and the need to enable regional and global innovation. The Ministers decided to put in place a framework to advance cooperation in CET such as advanced communication technology, artificial intelligence, quantum science, STEM, semi-conductors and biotechnology.

Recalling their countries’ strong tradition of space exploration and endeavors, the Ministers announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness and pledged to expand bilateral space cooperation, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment. They applauded the ongoing development of the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite, planned for launch from India in 2023. The NISAR mission will collect data vital to tackling the climate crisis. The Ministers also looked forward to the convening of the next India-U.S. Civil Space Joint Working Group in 2022.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022.

They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India.

The Ministers committed to continued exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, countering violent radicalism, use of the Internet for terrorist purposes, and cross-border movement of terrorists. The Ministers also emphasized the importance of upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations.

Recognizing the importance of protecting cultural heritage, the Ministers committed to work toward negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding that will deepen cooperation in this area and assist authorities in combatting the trade in cultural artifacts and facilitating their repatriation.

Defense and Security

The Ministers commended the significant and continuing progress in the India-U.S. Major Defense Partnership. Drawing on the momentum from the India-U.S. Defense Policy Group meeting in October 2021, they reaffirmed their ambitions for building an advanced and comprehensive defense partnership in which the U.S. and Indian militaries coordinate closely together across all domains.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022. They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

As information-sharing forms an important pillar of the India-U.S. defense cooperation, the Ministers underlined the importance of building a comprehensive framework under which our militaries are equipped to exchange information in real time across domains. The Ministers welcomed progress made toward full implementation of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) to support the exchange of geospatial information. The Ministers noted that information exchange and placement of liaison officers in each other’s military organizations will spur joint service cooperation between our militaries to support integrated and multi-domain cooperation.

Acknowledging that their navies have been a driving force in advancing the United States and India’s shared interests in the Indian Ocean Region and the wider Indo-Pacific, the Ministers discussed opportunities to further advance and deepen maritime cooperation, including in underwater domain awareness.

The United States also welcomed India’s decision to join the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force as an Associate Partner to expand multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean. The Ministers lauded the 2022 Indo-Pacific Military Health Exchange, which India and the United States co-hosted to bring together experts from 38 countries to discuss challenges and solutions to military medical issues. Both sides look forward to India’s co-hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC) and Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) in 2023.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of regular bilateral and multilateral exercises, including the MALABAR exercise with inclusion of Australia, the tri-service TIGER TRIUMPH exercise, the multilateral MILAN naval exercise, the bilateral YUDH ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR Army exercises, the bilateral COPE India air exercise, and Indian participation in RED FLAG. They supported increasing the scope and complexity of these exercises. They looked forward to deepening cooperation between the Special Forces of both countries.

Recognizing the importance of building robust private industry collaboration, the Ministers welcomed ongoing projects under the auspices of the India-U.S. Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), including a project agreement to co-develop Air-Launched UAVs. They called on both sides to consider additional DTTI projects, such as a counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS) system and an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform. They also lauded the rapid growth in bilateral defense trade over the past decade.

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India. To further enhance defense industrial cooperation in the naval sector, both sides agreed to explore possibilities of utilizing the Indian shipyards for repair and maintenance of ships of the U.S. Maritime Sealift Command (MSC) to support mid-voyage repair of U.S. Naval ships.

Military Tech Cooperation Document

India has shared a document with the US outlining emerging areas where military technology cooperation can be undertaken by the two nations and specialised teams are likely to conduct visits in the coming weeks to take the proposals forward. US defence companies, including those which met Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, are also likely to invest in India. India’s commitment to self-dependence has been received well.

Major US arms manufacturer Raytheon is likely to invest $100 million in setting up production and research facilities in India, while Boeing is exploring the possibility of creating a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul hub for systems like the P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft that are used by both nations. Plans by Raytheon could result in the creation of over 2,000 jobs in India.

Co-production of military systems was a key component of the talks, with emerging technology areas including artificial intelligence, cyber defence and space cooperation on the table. “There is now a clear understanding by both sides that jointly working on futuristic technologies is the way forward. It’s a major step above a simple buyer-seller relationship,” officials said.

The Indian side also pitched its shipyards for upcoming purchases planned by the US Coast Guard, showcasing their capability to deliver low cost, high quality products as well as a proven track record on delivery.

US teams are also expected to visit India soon to take forward a proposal to utilise Indian shipyards for repair and overhaul of American warships in the region. Such an arrangement, where US warships can be quickly turned around at Indian facilities, would be a key signal on the level of strategic partnership achieved.

“Closer military-military cooperation, increased engagement, information sharing and possible joint patrolling were discussed, with a focus on high end technology sharing,” officials added.

On the strategic front, the security scenario in the Indo-Pacific was discussed, with both sides sharing their commitment to peace and open access to all. The importance of the Quad initiative was appreciated during the talks and enhanced cooperation discussed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is likely to visit the remaining quad nations — Japan and Australia — in the coming months.

On the Russia front, officials said that India’s position on the matter was explained in detail and has been understood by the US.

Comments

The India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, held amid the Russia-Ukraine war, has ticked all the bilateral boxes, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to enhancing defence and strategic cooperation in various domains, including relatively new ones such as space, artificial intelligence and cyberspace.

The US has reiterated its support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council and New Delhi’s induction into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). India is keen to join the elite club whose members are entitled to hassle-free procurement of supplies from international markets for building and operating nuclear reactors, but China has been playing spoilsport in league with Pakistan. As of now, India’s N-push is powered by initiatives under the India-US Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group. Timely transfer of technology holds the key to a mutually beneficial strategic partnership, particularly in defence and energy sectors. India and the US need to redouble efforts to get the best results on this front.

Both countries are on the same page when it comes to envisioning a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and turning Quad into a formidable force that can make a lasting impact beyond its multilateral framework. With a new government set to take charge in Pakistan, it is significant that the troubled and troublesome country finds a mention in the joint statement. The ministers have called on Pakistan to take ‘immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks’. A similarly strong message has been conveyed to Afghanistan’s rulers, the Taliban. All in all, the dialogue makes it clear that India and the US will continue to give precedence to their common strategic interests, irrespective of geopolitical upheaval anywhere in the world.

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India will have to grapple with a more belligerent China along its northern borders as a fallout of the Ukraine crisis. The Indian and Chinese armies have been locked in a border standoff since May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. Since then, the two sides held several rounds of military and diplomatic which have only resulted in partial disengagement of troops from friction points.

So far, India has walked the diplomatic tightrope between the US and Russia, given its own strategic compulsions. Warding off pressure from the US and its European allies to strongly oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is a matter by itself. India hopes that purchase of the five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile squadrons, under the $5.43 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) contract inked with Russia in October 2018, was an “urgent national security requirement” to counter aggressive neighbours like China and Pakistan. Hence, the US will not impose sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act), which seeks to prevent countries from buying Russian weapons, by mounting a major diplomatic-military campaign with both the Trump and Biden administrations.

On the China front, India will need to keep an eagle-eye on the annual exercises of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in March-April along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) and be “prepared for any contingencies.

In addition to the stalemate along the LAC, the IA could face the emergence of another front on its western flank from China’s ‘willing’ affiliate Pakistan, with the aim of dividing India’s already overstretched forces and equally strained financial and equipment resources.

As it is, the PLA has shown no signs of de-escalating the 21-month-long troop confrontation in eastern Ladakh, even as it has systematically strengthened its military positions and infrastructure all along the LAC.

With the attention of the US-led West diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine instead of countering China in the Indo-Pacific, an emboldened Beijing is likely to indulge in muscle-flexing along the LAC, especially in the Arunachal sector.

Apart from conventional military capabilities, China’s focus on space, cyberspace and “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare has been a major concern for India.

“China’s latest demonstration of physically moving one of its disabled satellites into the graveyard orbit is bringing in newer threats in the race to weaponise the space domain, a domain hitherto considered relatively safe,” IAF chief Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said at a seminar on 24 February.

Quad’s Focus

Furthermore, the inchoate and nebulous preemptive deterrent instrumentality like the naval-focused Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, initiated in 2007-08 as a China-containment strategy, and one which included Australia, Japan and the US, has, in its new avatar, proven ineffectual in discouraging Beijing’s adventurism in Ladakh. Besides, all four Quad members are now preoccupied with dealing with the fallout from Ukraine’s invasion and bracing themselves for a unified China-Russia front, in which the latter’s military technology, expertise and know-how would be more aggressively mated and advanced by a financially flush and industrially forward Beijing.

India should now forcefully use its considerable diplomatic clout and its deep friendships on all sides to end the conflict and stabilise the region. The additional advantage in such a solution would be to persuade India’s strategic partners including its Quad partners to turn back their focus on China and the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing-Moscow Axis

The ongoing confusion over the war in Ukraine could impact the LAC situation, as sanctions could drive Moscow into a ‘Chinese embrace’. In that case, India would have to deal with the PLA threat by itself. And to do so it needs to summarily and significantly augment its economic and military capabilities.

India could well end up facing the brunt of this deadly security partnership between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad. Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 25, within hours of the latter having ordered his army’s mobilisation against Kyiv, was ‘significant.’ It had firmly secured Putin’s eastern flank, with the exception of India, which had opted to remain neutral. It is apposite to recall that Putin lifted sanctions on Pakistan in 2014, sold it Mi-35M Hind-E attack helicopters and conducted joint exercises with its army near Peshawar in October 2018.

India’s ‘nightmare scenario’ is  – Washington deciding to confront a greater threat from Russia in its European backyard than from China, and opting for a strategic accommodation with Beijing. Or the US conceding Chinese dominance in Asia to safeguard its European flank from an expansionist Russia.

India’s Options

India needs to forge long-term alliances with advanced materiel producing countries to eventually replace Russian equipment, in addition to ‘realistically’ beefing up its domestic defence manufacturing.

The government’s disjointed and ad hoc approach to fostering military capability development has to stop. The MoD needs to optimise scarce financial resources and focus on immediate security threats and not on optics, like the recent strident official announcement that Indian industry had indigenised the manufacture of assorted military-grade nuts and bolts.

Instead of half-baked measures, India must make self-reliance in military requirements a concrete national mission, along with a special thrust on space, cyberspace and special operations. Moreover, a robust nuclear deterrence is required to deter all adversaries.

The ongoing situation on northern Borders warrants the Indian Army to re-align the operational tasking of its reserve formations to focus on the northern borders and refine warfighting capabilities in high altitude mountainous terrain.

India uneasily awaits the next Chinese misadventure on its borders. Unlike Ukraine, India is alone.

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