Objectives of Japan’s National Strategy

Over the 77-year period since the end of World War II, Japan has, in the face of the Cold War as well as the dramatic changes in the security environment that ensued its ending, preserved peace and security by:

• Enhancing its diplomatic strength and defence capability

• Expanding and deepening cooperation with other countries, with the Japan-U.S. Alliance being the key pillar.

In so doing, Japan, under the Constitution, has adhered to the basic percept of maintaining the exclusively defence-oriented policy and not becoming a military power that poses threats to other countries, ensured civilian control of the military, and observed the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

As Russia’s aggression against Ukraine attests, Japan is facing serious challenges and has plunged into a new crisis, especially China’s continued attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and South China Sea. North Korea has escalated its ballistic missile activities at an unprecedented high frequency and pursues further miniaturization of its nuclear weapons. As Japan is situated on the very frontlines of these trends, the future shape of Japan’s security and defence policy has a direct link to the peace and stability of the region and the international community.

Japan considers it critical for it to deepen cooperation and collaboration with its ally and like-minded countries with whom Japan shares universal values and strategic interests.

Japan considers it necessary to engage in fundamental reinforcement of defence capabilities which focuses on opponent’s capability and new ways of warfare to protect the lives and peaceful livelihood of Japanese nationals. Strengthening of Japan’s architecture for national defence by integrating national power as well as fundamentally reinforcing Japan’s defence capabilities in a unified manner with strategic intent is the way Japan wishes to enhance deterrence capabilities and further strengthen the Japan-U.S. Alliance, which will also be a cornerstone for the security cooperation with like-minded countries and others.

Based on these recognitions, as a substitute for the National Defence Program Guidelines (NDPG) , Japan’s basic guideline for buildup, sustainment and operation of defence capability with the Self-Defence Forces (SDF) as its core and formulated six times since 1976, Japan has formulated the National Defence Strategy (NDS) to comprehensively demonstrate Japan’s defence objectives, approaches to accomplish them and their means.

The policies of the fundamental reinforcement of defence capabilities and the level of defence buildup supporting them, which were decided by the Government through the NDS and “Defence Buildup Program” (approved by the National Security Council and the Cabinet on December 16, 2022), represent a major turning point for the post-war defence policy.

Strategic Environment and Defence Challenges

Changes in the Strategic Environment. The global power balance has significantly changed and interstate competitions across the political, economy and military spheres are emerging. Such trends are especially notable in the Indo-Pacific region, where China has been continuing and strengthening its unilateral changes to the status quo by force and such attempts. Not only China but also North Korea and Russia have been intensifying their activities more than ever.

In particular, it is expected that the interstate competition between China and the United States will continue to intensify in various fields, and the United States shows a recognition that the next ten years will be the decisive decade for the competition with China.

Rapid advances in science and technology have fundamentally changed the paradigm of security, and countries are developing cutting-edge technologies, what can be called as game changers, to completely transform future warfare. Notably, China has been rapidly promoting the acceleration of technological innovation and its application for military purposes under the name of the “Military-Civil Fusion Development Strategy” and in particular, accelerating the strengthening of military power on the premise of unmanned assets employing artificial intelligence (AI). These trends have led to fundamental changes to traditional military forces in terms of their force structure and way of warfare.

There are also challenges in global security including the increasing risks in domains such as cyber, the expansion of information warfare including the spread of disinformation, and climate change.

Military Trends of Japan’s Neighboring Countries and Regions. In the report to the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party of China (NCCPC) in 2017, the goals of “basically achieving modernization of national defence and the military” by 2035 and building “a world-class military” by the middle of the century have been set, and in the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee in 2020, the achievement of “the centennial military building goal” by 2027 was added as a target. In a report to the NCCPC in 2022, it was newly stated that more rapidly elevating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to “world-class military” at an early stage is a strategic task for building “a modern socialist country” in all respects, and under such goals, China holds up a “new system concentrating nationwide effort and resources,” will continue integrated development of “mechanization, informatization and intelligentization” and is broadly and swiftly strengthening its military capability in both quality and quantity. Moreover, it has stipulated that next five years will be the critical period to start the full-scale construction of a “modern socialist country.”

China’s announced national defence budget first exceeded Japan’s defence-related expenditures in FY1998 and has since increased at a rapid pace, reaching approximately 4.8 times of Japan’s defence-related expenditure in FY2022. China’s announced national defence budget is just a portion of actual expenditures spent for military purposes, and backed by the rapid increase in national defence expenditures, China now possesses more numerous modern naval and air assets than those of Japan.

China has been strengthening its capabilities in new domains including the space and cyber domains. Regarding nuclear forces, it appears highly likely that China intends to possess at least 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by the end of the 2020s. Moreover, China is promoting development and deployment of unmanned assets, and their increased activities have been confirmed in the areas surrounding Japan.

Backed by these military capabilities, China has been intensifying its activities across the entire region surrounding Japan, including the East China Sea, particularly the exterritorial water around Senkaku Islands, the Sea of Japan, and the western Pacific Ocean including the areas around the Izu and Ogasawara Islands, extending beyond the so-called First Island Chain to the Second Island Chain, as well as increasing military pressure on Taiwan and promoting its militarization in the South China Sea.

Regarding Taiwan, the report to NCCPC in 2022 reiterated that China “will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force.”

Moreover, China has launched nine ballistic missiles in August 4, 2022, five of which landed within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This was perceived as a threat to local residents. China, thus, has intensified its coercive military activities around Taiwan, and concerns about the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait are rapidly growing not only in the Indo-Pacific region but also in the entire international community.

North Korea has concentrated on building up its weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and ballistic missiles in order to maintain its regime. Technologically, North Korea is considered to already have the capability to launch an attack on Japan with a ballistic missile which includes Japan in its range, fitted with a nuclear warhead. North Korea’s military activities pose an even more grave and imminent threat to Japan’s national security than ever before.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has shaken the very foundation of the international order and is perceived as the most significant and direct threat to defence in Europe. As for the areas surrounding Japan, the Russian forces intensified their military activities including through the deployment of newer-model equipment and implementation of large-scale military exercises in the Far East region including the Northern Territories.

In addition, in recent years, Russia has strengthened collaboration with China in terms of military aspect by conducting activities such as joint navigations with naval vessels and joint flights with bombers. Such military activities in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan, together with its strategic coordination with China, are of strong concern from a defence perspective.

Defence Challenges. Russia has openly launched an aggression against Ukraine and repeatedly took actions and sent messages that could be interpreted as threat of use of nuclear weapons, creating an unprecedented situation. This kind of unilateral changes to the status quo by force, this time happening in Europe, could also occur in the Indo-Pacific region.

Also, while no country can defend its own security by itself alone, there is a renewed recognition of the importance of cooperation with allies who have the intention and capability to respond to invasion jointly in order to deter invasion from outside.

Moreover, it should be noted that a country with high military capability can have the intention to launch an aggression at some point. A threat emerges when capability is combined with intention, but it is difficult to accurately grasp the intention from outside. When the decision-making process of the state is unclear, there is always a foundation for a threat to be actualized.

To protect one’s own country from such states, it is necessary to have deterrence capability thereby making them realize that unilateral changes to the status quo by force are difficult. It is also important to build own capability, or defence capability focused on their capability in order to prevent them from harboring the intention to launch an aggression.

The way of warfare has also been drastically changing. In addition to the traditional forms of invasion through air, sea, and land, new ways of warfare have emerged with the combination of massive missile strike by ballistic and cruise missiles with enhanced precision strike capabilities, hybrid warfare including information warfare such as false-flag operations, asymmetric attacks leveraging the space, cyber, and electromagnetic domains and with unmanned assets, and actions and remarks that could be interpreted as threat of use of nuclear weapons made publicly by nuclear powers. Whether or not to be able to respond to these new ways of warfare has become a major challenge to building defence capabilities in the future.

Surrounded by the sea and with long coastlines, Japan possesses numerous islands remote from the mainland and is blessed with vast EEZ, and continental shelves: spread widely therein are life, person, and property of the Japanese nationals, as well as its territory, territorial waters, airspace, and various natural resources, all of which Japan must defend to the end. For Japan, a maritime nation that depends on overseas trade for the majority of its resources and food, it is essential to reinforce the free and open maritime order as well as to ensure the freedom and safety of navigation and overflight.

On the other hand, Japan has frequently suffered from natural disasters with significant damage. Because while its industrial, population, and information centers are concentrated in urban areas with a large number of critical facilities such as nuclear power plants located on the coast, making it a challenge to protect the Japanese nationals and critical facilities from various threats.

In addition, considering Japan’s aging population with a declining birth rate and continued severe fiscal conditions, it is essential to make more efficient use of budget and personnel than ever before.

Based on National Defense Strategy published in December 2022.  Translated from Japanese.

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The U.S. has its own plans to roll out hypersonic weapons. The technology is nearly at the point of development of rocket-boosted hypersonic glide vehicles. The next evolution will be producing air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, which can carry a heavier payload.

The science and research is being done collaboratively by the US Missile Defence Agency (MDA), Space Development Agency (SDA) and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

Key to hypersonic weapons will be the development of thermal protection systems that protect the vehicles when they enter the earth’s atmosphere from space at high speed and heat up.

Russia and China are currently producing these. The Chinese hypersonic threat is severe and increasing. They outrun and outrange the US’s best radars.

A problem is tracking these weapons. The target acquisition, tracking and fire-control problem solution will have to come from the space domain. Sensors will have to be put into space to track these very dim targets against the clutter of earth background.

Japan Unveils Plans for Hypersonic Weapons

The Japanese blueprint reportedly stipulates the development of the Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM) and the Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) which are expected to enter service in the early 2030s.

The Japanese government has unveiled its research and development road map to create domestically-produced hypersonic weapons. Under the plan, there will be two classes of hypersonic weapon systems, including the Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM) and the Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP). Powered by a scramjet engine, the HCM appears similar to a typical missile, albeit one that cruises at a much higher speed while capable of traveling at long ranges. The HVGP, it will reportedly feature a solid-fuel rocket engine capable of boosting its warhead payload and maintaining high velocity when gliding to its target. The blueprint stipulates using different warheads to tackle seaborne and ground targets, including one that will be specifically designed to penetrate the deck of an aircraft carrier.

The warhead’s land-attack version, in turn, will feature a high-density explosively formed projectile, or EFP, to be used for area suppression purposes. Both warheads, which will be navigated via satellites, are expected to enter service in the early 2030s.

As far as warhead guidance is concerned, the process will be achieved via either radio-frequency imaging converted from Doppler shift data – which the government agency said will be able to identify stealthy naval targets in all weather conditions – or an infrared seeker capable to discriminating specific targets.

Unarmed Hypersonic Missile Tested

The United States announced, on 20 March, that it has successfully tested an unarmed prototype of a hypersonic missile, a nuclear-capable weapon that could accelerate the arms race between superpowers. The Pentagon said a test glide vehicle flew at hypersonic speeds – more than five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5 – to a designated impact point. The joint Army-Navy test was carried out on March 19 from the Pacific Missile Range facility in Kauai, Hawaii. The test was for the military’s common-hypersonic glide body, or C-HGB weapon, designed to be launched from a rocket that could be land-, air- or sea-based.

The test followed the first joint US Army and Navy flight experiment in October 2017, when the prototype missile demonstrated it could glide in the direction of a target at hypersonic speed.

The Pentagon is pressing to catch up with rivals Moscow and Beijing in the race to develop hypersonics, even as it recognizes they could dangerously raise the risks of a nuclear conflict, as countries struggle to build defenses against them.

In its fiscal 2021 budget the US Defense Department requested $3.2 billion for hypersonic programmes, up from $2.6 billion in 2020. The goal is a deployable hypersonic capability by 2023, though that could be difficult.

Russia and China

In December 2019, Russia declared it had placed into service its first Avangard hypersonic missile, making it the first country to claim an operable hypersonic weapon. Russian officials claimed that in tests it had reached speeds of up to Mach 27, roughly 33,000 kilometers per hour.

China is also investing significantly in their development. Last October it displayed its DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle in its national day military parade. The US military is meanwhile pouring money into advanced missile defense research to find ways to protect against hypersonics.

Layered Missile Defense

The MDA, in cooperative work with Israel and Japan, is planning to build next-generation interceptor and space-based sensors to track fast moving and fast maneuvering threats such as hypersonic weapons.

A system called Command and Control Battle Management Communications is being built that will allow operators to pass control or tracking information between various ballistic missile systems, such as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), Patriot, Standard Missile-6 and Aegis.

Sm3 Block 1B missiles are in production now. These are designed for midcourse engagement from ships and Aegis ashore sites. The SM3 Block 2A, going into production now will be tested later in 2020 against an intercontinental ballistic missile target. Upgraded early warning radars are being built in Alaska. The department is also seeking to produce a more capable THAAD design.

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