TRF is an amateur group created on 12 October 2019, virtually on Telegram. In its nascent stage, the Indian intelligence community and the Indian Army decoded its make and model and declared it was an extended hand of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

It was a ploy by Pakistan to revive its terror operations in Kashmir under a new name much similar to the Hamas, an acronym of the Arabic phrase ‘Harakat al-Muq wama al-Isl-miyya’,  meaning “Islamic Resistance Movement”.

Threat and Intent

Hostile social manipulation poses a larger threat than an active militancy itself. The virtual footprint of a terrorist’s image are birth grounds for otherwise amateurish terrorists like Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa. Their death has been encashed to further radicalise and recruit more innocent youth. Greater number of recruits for radical Islam-based terrorist organisations is a good indicator of radical Islamists’ hold in a conflict zone. In other words, the fire is still burning and the fuel will continue to be poured.

Numerous Islamist groups were formed in 1990 advocating Nizam-e-Mustafa (Rule of Muhammad) as the objective of their struggle. Murder of Kashmiri Hindus, intellectuals, liberals and activists was described as a necessity to get rid of ‘un-Islamic’ elements. Concurrently, all ‘sinful’ activities like cinema houses, beauty parlours, wine shops, bars, video centres, use of cosmetics and similar things were banned by the militant groups.

LeT, formed in 1987, is the armed wing of the Pakistan- based religious organization, Markaz-ud-Dawa-wal-Irshad (MDI), a Sunni anti-US missionary organization led by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed. The group construes lands once ruled by Muslims as Muslim lands and considers it as their duty to get them back. It embraces a pan-Islamist rationale for military action. LeT believes that jihad is the duty of all Muslims and must be waged until eight objectives are met:

•             Establishing Islam as the dominant way of life in the world.

•             Forcing disbelievers to pay Jizya (a tax on non-Muslims).

•             Fighting for the weak and feeble against oppressors.

•             Exacting revenge for killed Muslims.

•             Punishing enemies for violating oaths and treaties.

•             Defending all Muslim states.

•             Recapturing occupied Muslim territory.

The Digital Footprint

The geography of cyberspace is much more mutable than other environments. Low barriers to entry make it an attractive option for hybrid warfare especially popular amongst international terrorists and rogues states like Pakistan with abysmal financial resources. Some experts believe that as virtual communities develop on the internet, they will cut across territorial jurisdictions and develop their own pattern of governance.

The key characteristics of any influence operation is its speed and reach.

Scrapping of Article 370 was a much-required political move to resolve the stalemate situation in Jammu & Kashmir. For decades, the stalemate situation otherwise provided fertile grounds for numerous back door deals between non-state actors and other organisations.

Analysis of open data on Twitter reveals that there was a spike in new accounts from October 2019 to March 2020, dedicated to promote terrorism in Kashmir or Pakistani narrative in Kashmir. Most of the accounts were from Pakistan. (See images).

There was a co-dependence trend observed amongst the newly created accounts wherein every new account was boosted by an already existing pool of similar accounts. These could not be classified under bots, trolls or sock puppets. These were multiple accounts organically created which were boosting terror-related content on social media.

Other kinds of twitter accounts are online media channels dedicated to Kashmir.

The online medium is primarily used by the terrorist groups like the ISIS or Al-Qaeda for radicalising young vulnerable minds. In 2009 Al-Qaeda launched an English e-magazine called Jihad Recollections. The ISIS launched ‘Dabiq’ under Al-Hayat (Life) Media Centre — the media house of the Islamic State. It was named after a famous Syrian town near the Turkish border where the ‘believers’ battled against the ‘infidels’. The LeT launched its online magazine in 2018 called ‘Wyeth’.

Terrorist organisations in Kashmir have always maintained a euphoria amongst the locals that their fight was for a bigger cause and that the people from different parts of the world were supporting it; that they should rather feel proud and not sad, if their son becomes a ‘Shaheed’ and not a literate civilised peace-loving human being.

It was reported in the beginning of 2020 that Pakistan Army’s media wing Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) was organising competitions every month to award youths whose tweets were retweeted the most. The prizes included a job and contracts with Fauzi Foundation run by the Army. Like other ideas of Pakistan, this one is also borrowed from a state where the word ‘disinformation’ originated.

Defence against Online Radicalisation and Extremism

It is widely established that cutting down access to the Internet cannot be a long-lasting solution. Even in the absence of Internet, there are 15 Pakistan-based FM stations that are active in Jammu & Kashmir spreading propaganda against India.

The Twitter handle of Pakistan’s prime minister Imran Khan is also used for the same purpose, to amplify the narratives.

The counter-strategy cannot be a ‘tit for tat’ or a battle of whose narrative is louder.

Democratic states are more vulnerable to information warfare as they do not believe in building their own cyber-wall like Russia, Iran or China. Hence, the other option is to create cyber policies under which social platforms like Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram and others take a responsible step in preventing radicalisation and extremism.

Big Data giants like Google, Facebook, Amazon, e-Bay and other internet companies that are used every day to track and profile their users have established relations with the US military and intelligence agencies.

According to Yasha Levine, the author of Surveillance Valley, “over the years, Google had supplied mapping technology used by the US Army in Iraq, hosted data for the Central Intelligence Agency, indexed the National Security agency’s vast intelligence databases, built military robots, co-launched a spy satellite with the Pentagon and leased its cloud computing platform to help police departments predict crime.’’

While India satisfies the appetite of data giants as the next promising market, it sure can strike some deals to preserve its own national security interests.

The post Digital Footprint of Terrorism in Kashmir appeared first on IMR.

With Naikoo, who carried a reward of Rs 12 lakh on his head, two other terrorists were killed in a separate encounter in Sharshali Khrew area of Awantipora on 5 May.

Six months of persistent surveillance and the arrest of a mason, who reportedly built HuM commander Riyaz Naikoo’s hideout, led the forces to the big catch. A cordon and search operation had been carried out after the security forces were tipped off about the presence of militants in Beighpora area.

Mobile internet services were suspended in Kashmir as a precautionary measure. Soon after the incident, stone pelting broke out in the area following which cellular services were also shut.

Naikoo had taken over the HuM leadership in the Valley from Mohammad Yasin Itoo, alias Mehmood Ghaznawi, after he was killed in August 2017 in a gunfight in Shopian’s Awneera. Before Ghaznawi, Burhan Wani, the poster boy of militancy in the Valley, was killed in July 2016.

Naikoo’s killing is a significant blow to pro-Pakistan group HuM. It also marked an end of an era in which a generation of militants, like Burhan Wani and Zakir Musa, evoked folklore popularity and gained an unprecedented support and sympathy. It also proved that the shelf life of terrorists in J&K was few months. None of the surviving commanders and cadres has been able to step forward.

The reversals began in autumn of 2018 when dozens of district-level commanders were killed in precise anti-insurgency operations that dramatically dented the capabilities of the militant groups.

Nearly 800 militants – most of them locals, ill-trained and ill-equipped – have been killed in last four years and during the first half of 2020.

Saifullah Mir, aka Qasim Haider, a resident of Malangpora in Pulwama and part of the Burhan Wani group of 12 terrorists, listed as a A++ category terrorist, is reported to have succeed Riyaz Naikoo to fill the void in the group. A medical assistant in the past, he has treated terrorists wounded in encounters with the security forces.

Saifullah began as a guide for terrorists in Pulwama, Tral, Kakapora and Kulgam areas. He has been active in Srinagar city as well.

On the killing of Naikoo, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen Bipin Rawat remarked, “The priority of the Armed Forces is to always get after the terrorist leadership and neutralize them as fast as possible. If you succeed in doing so, recruitment levels go down. They are not able to spread violence among the people because it is the leadership that spreads all the violence amongst the people and coerces the local population-young boys and girls through misinformation and they try to encourage them to join more often than not through fear and coercion. So if we are able to eliminate leadership, we are quite hopeful that you will find that recruitment will come down and there will be lesser violence in the Valley. It has always been the effort of the Armed Forces and they will continue doing so.”

“Creating a more than life-size image of a terrorist leader is somehow propagating them into this Rambo kind of image. I think the more we stay away from them and highlight their negativity more, we will not create this Rambo image of these people. They are people just spreading terrorism, mayhem, and not allowing normalcy to return in the state. They are not heroes in the eyes of the local population. People are being coerced to treat them as heroes because of social media,” the CDS opined on attempts to build a larger than life image of Riyaz Naikoo.

The Resistance Front Launched

The Resistance Front (TRF),  a new terror group has been rushed by Pakistan to take responsibility for major terror attacks and firefights in Jammu & Kashmir. It is controlled by three top handlers of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) in Pakistan – Sajad Jatt for South Kashmir, Khalid for Central Kashmir and Hanzala Adnan for North Kashmir.

The TRF was launched in late 2019 after Parliament scrapped Jammu & Kashmir’s special status and divided the state into two centrally-administered union territories, Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.

The exercise is designed to give terror in Kashmir an indigenous face to ward off international pressure, particularly from the anti-terror financing watchdog Financial Action Task Force (FATF), over Pakistan sponsoring Islamist terror groups and what New Delhi describes as its jihadi terror factories.

This objective reflected the choice of names for the Inter Services Intelligence’s (ISI) recent terror initiatives such as TRF or the low-key JK Pir Panjal Peace Forum. These names do not have a religious label but suggest that they are homebred.

It is a facade to help the terror group gain space in the public mind and to attract local recruits. LeT’s old guard was focussing on getting TRF new recruits from the Kashmir Valley.

TRF’s social media managers in Pakistan claimed responsibility after five terrorists and an equal number of army soldiers were killed in the Keran sector in early April. The group also claimed responsibility for the gunfight in north Kashmir’s Handwara town that killed five security men, including the commanding officer of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion and a Major on 3 May. 

TRF is expected to carry out grenade attacks, mostly using its overground workers or fresh recruits rather than risking its trained hands. The group, however, lost dozens of grenades when the police caught some of its overground workers ferrying arms and ammunition in March.

Comments

The elimination of Riyaz Naikoo was a result of developing actionable human intelligence and operational synergy among forces fronting the counter-terror operations.

The Special Operations Group of the Jammu & Kashmir Police had been working on people in the Kupwara district who had access to Riyaz Naikoo. One of them was a man who had played a role in building the secret bunker in his native village in south Kashmir’s Pulwama. The intelligence was pinpointed.

Riyaz Naikoo’s elimination, a serious setback to terror group HuM in south Kashmir, is considered one of the most successful security operations in recent months in Jammu & Kashmir.

Even Syed Salahuddin, the Hizbul founder, who also leads the Pakistan’s ISI-backed alliance of terror groups – United Jihad Council – said the “the enemy (India) has the edge”. A day after Naikoo’s killing, he could be heard saying, “It’s a shock for all of us (killing of Riyaz Naikoo) but these ‘shahadats’ (sacrifices) are going on in Kashmir since long. Since January this year 80 Mujahideens (terrorists) have given their ‘Shahadat’ (eliminated by the security forces) and all of them were highly educated and trained.”

The security forces have now concentrated on spotting every terrorist infiltrating from Pakistan, analysing infiltration routes to spot gaps in counter-infiltration grid along the LoC, focusing on human intelligence, and stepping up offensive against foreign terrorists in Kashmir Valley.

Pakistan, by all accounts, is determined to bear down on India. This is the first summer after India scrapped Jammu & Kashmir’s special status in August 2019 and Islamabad has been prepping ever since.

It was clear that the Deep State was clearly in-charge of Pakistan’s Kashmir policy. And Imran Khan, quite like India had anticipated right in the beginning, was letting the army run the show.

Imran Khan’s tweets on Kashmir had attributed violence in Kashmir to an “indigenous resistance movement” and accused India of finding a pretext to launch a “false flag operation.” This remark has been interpreted in New Delhi to imply that the TRF model of funding terror and denying a role in terrorism in Kashmir was the template.

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Riyaz Naikoo’s Bad Deeds

Riyaz was involved in:

•             Killing of Haji Ghulam Mohammad Dar, father of a sarpanch, at Dogripora on March 8, 2014

•             Firing on a police bus near Bhatpora Tokena

•             Killing of Gh Mohi-Ud-din Dar

•             Killing of Javaid Akbar Khanday, resident of Khandaypora

•             Killing of police Head Constable Ashiq Hussain Mir at the Padgampoara crossing

•             Kidnapping of Constable Naseer Ahmad

•             Looting of nine weapons from the residence of former MLA Wachi

•             Killing of six migrant labourers in Kulgam

•             Killing of truck drivers and fruit traders post August 5, 2019

•             Release of an audio tape threatening attacks on the jail staff after preferential treatment being provided to militants and separatists lodged in various jails was discontinued.

The post Elimination of HuM J&K Head Significant Blow to Pakistan appeared first on IMR.

The volatile 778-km long Line of Control (LoC), recorded over 1,547 times until 3 May from January – nearly half of the entire year’s figure in 2019 at 3,168.

The highest number of violations (411) were recorded in March 2020 when Covid-19 cases started peaking globally.

There were 3,479 CFVs and firings across the LoC and the 198-km international border (IB) in J&K in 2019, smashing all annual records since 2003.

The upward trend in CFVs has continued since the government revoked the special status of J&K on 5 August 2019 and then split the state into two union territories. Though there was a general decline in terrorist violence in the hinterland, with the snow in the mountain passes melting, there has also been a spike in infiltration attempts.

In April 2020, as many as 28 terrorists were killed in J&K – the highest since August 2019. 64 terrorists were killed in Kashmir and along the LoC in 2020 so far. In 2019, 152 terrorists were killed in J&K as against 215 in 2018, official figures stated.

Islamabad also blamed the Indian Army of 708 ceasefire violations in 2020, that it said killed two civilians and injured another 42.

Recruitment Up

The bigger cause of worry was that at least 35 local youths had joined terror groups in the first four months of this year, according to official figures of the armed forces. The local recruitment in 2019 was 119 – much less than 219 in 2018.

The Indian security forces have gone on the offensive, keeping the approaching summer in mind when infiltration attempts increase along the LoC and terrorists in the Valley become very active.

Casualties

Since 21 March, at least 33 militants and two of their associates have been killed in 15 gunfights across the Valley. Most of these encounters took place in four districts of south Kashmir – Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag, which are considered the hotbed of militancy.

Twenty security personnel lost their lives in this period. Eighteen were killed in gunfights and in attacks by militants, and two army men died on the LoC in CFVs by Pakistan.

Terror Factories in Pakistan

Terror factories in Pakistan are continuing training modules and launch pads along the border from where the final push is made to cross over are also active. The encounter in the Keran sector, on 5 April, in which five special forces soldiers died while taking down a group of infiltrating terrorists-also showed a clear Pakistan hand, with recoveries of food packets and other supplies that had evident markings.

Army chief, Gen MM Naravane also accused Pakistan, on 17 April, of backing terrorism in the region at a time when the world was united to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. “While the whole world is focused towards fighting Covid-19, Pakistan-instigated terrorists have been targeting innocent civilians in the hinterland; just three days back they targeted a retired Kashmiri soldier. Therefore, we cannot let our guard down,” Naravane said.

Intelligence Assessment

Intelligence agencies had earlier pointed to terror launch pads that had been activated in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir’s (POK) Dudhnial, Sharda and Athmuqam across the Keran sector on this side of the Line of Control.

The encounters which happened during March to April point towards Pakistan-backed terrorist groups focusing on north Kashmir. It was a renewed attempt by Pakistan to give Kashmir terrorism a local face. According to an assessment presented to national security planners in late April, the ISI had messaged the 100-odd foreign terrorists to lie low and let the local terrorists front the battle with security forces.

The assessment was that foreign terrorists would be consolidating logistics, expanding the overground workers facilitation network and concentrating on recruitment of Kashmiri youth. Foreign terrorists had also stepped up efforts to radicalise the youth in the Doda-Kishtwar-Ramban range to prepare them for recruitment.

The intelligence brief had also predicted a spike in terror activities and attacks from April, after the starting of Ramzan.

NSA’s Review

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval carried out a complete operational review of the security situation in Jammu & Kashmir on 9 May. The review meeting was attended by Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane, Intelligence Bureau director Arvinda Kumar, Research and Analysis Wing chief Samant Kumar Goel, Border Security Force director general SS Deswal, Central Reserve Police Force chief AK Maheshwari. Northern Army Commander Lt Gen YK Joshi, and general officer commanding of the army’s Srinagar-headquartered 15 corps Lt Gen BS Raju and the Nagrota-based 16 corps commander Lt Gen Harsha Gupta and Jammu and Kashmir police chief Dilbag Singh had also attended the high-level review at New Delhi.

The meeting noted Pakistan government’s renewed push from terror launch pads, the rise in infiltration and how Pakistan was funding newly-created outfits such as The Resistance Front or the J&K Pir Panjal Peace Forum to claim that terrorism in the Kashmir valley was indigenous and not sponsored by Pakistan.

Placing the Pakistan Air Force on high alert was assessed as an effort to further Imran Khan’s narrative that asks the international community to intervene lest there is a confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Comments

The security grid has increased surveillance in the four districts of south Kashmir, while also keeping a close watch on the LoC. The months of April and May saw a pattern of encounters going up every year, when the snow starts melting on the upper reaches of the Himalayas and militants start infiltrating from POK into Kashmir.

With modern surveillance gadgets, security forces are registering big successes in tracking and zeroing in on militants. Once a militant is caught on radar, he is tracked through electronic surveillance, and the success is remarkable. Also, human intelligence inputs help the forces to coordinate operations in the better way. Intelligence gathering has also seen a marked improvement.

A section of security officials and experts believes CFVs by Pakistan are a desperate attempt to foment unrest in India.

In the security grid, many consider these CFVs an attempt to give a cover fire to help militants crossing over to India.

Pakistan’s strategy of pushing terrorists across the border continues unabated. It’s likely that Pakistan is actually trying to take advantage of the Covid-19 outbreak and hit India with terror strikes when the latter is trying to control the epidemic. Plus, the nullification of special status of J&K by New Delhi last year did not lead to the kind of unrest that Islamabad had expected.

The post COUNTER-TERRORISM: Spike in Encounters and Recruitment appeared first on IMR.

Seventeen security forces personnel lost their lives while fighting the terrorists in the union territory, they said.

The militants also killed nine civilians in the last four months, the officials said.

Giving details, a senior official told PTI that the slain terrorists included top commanders of JeM, LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen.

He said of the 50 terrorists killed so far this year, 18 were eliminated during the ongoing lockdown imposed to contain the spread of coronavirus.

Four terrorists, including district commander of LeT Muzaffar Ahmed Bhat, were killed in an encounter with security forces in the Dialgam area of Anantnag district in south Kashmir on March 15, the official said, adding they belonged to LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen outfits On January 25, three terrorists, including JeM self-styled Kashmir chief Qari Yasir, were killed while three soldiers were injured in an encounter between security forces and ultras in the Tral area of south Kashmir’s Pulwama district, he said.

On January 23, another top militant commander Abu Saifullah alias Abu Qasim, an associate of Yasir, was killed in the Khrew area of Pulwama district, the official said.

On April 9, top Jaish-e-Mohammed commander Sajad Nawab Dar was killed by security forces in Sopore in Baramulla district in north Kashmir, he said.

A top Hizbul Mujahideen ‘commander’ Haroon Wani was killed in a fierce encounter with the security forces in the Gundana area of Doda in Jammu and Kashmir on January 15, he said.

Giving further details, the officer said 18 terrorists were killed during the lockdown in the union territory since March 14.

As many as nine civilians were killed by the terrorists during this year, he said.

Besides, seventeen security force personnel were killed during the same period, which includes 13 security personnel, three Special Police officers (SPOs) and one policeman, he added.

As many as 160 terrorists were killed and 102 arrested in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, Director General of Police Dilbag Singh had said earlier.

By Anil Bhatt
Source: Yahoo News

The post 50 Terrorists Killed in J&K in 2020; 18 During Lockdown appeared first on IMR.

Operational Matters

Gen Naravane need not spend too much time on integration with the Air Force and Navy, seeking increase in budgetary allocations, joint doctrines, employment of strategic forces, space, cyber, information warfare and so on, except insofar as it concerns the Army alone. Luckily, Gen Bipin Rawat, having just side-stepped from the Army chief’s office into the CDS’s, is well aware of the Army’s requirements. The new Army chief will, of course, have to take forward the changes initiated by Gen Rawat, when it comes to Integrated Battle Groups, restructuring of the Army HQ, manpower, and so on.

Army Restructuring

The restructuring of the Army HQ in New Delhi, initiated by Gen Biopin Rawat, is in progress. It is the beginning of the first full-cadre review of the Army in over 30 years. Keeping in sight the emerging security matrix and the abiding challenge of sprucing up the force and equipping it with cutting-edge armoury and equipment on a budget, this is a part of changes that must be executed to achieve the objectives of a competitive force.

The restructuring of Army HQ to gear it up towards capability-based modernisation needs, would synergise and coalesce all revenue and capital spending under one organisation and effectively prioritise competing requirements with an operational focus to get better value for funds allocated by the government.

Under the restructuring approved now called Reorganisation of the Army Headquarters, two weapons and systems procurement branches will be merged and a new post of Deputy Chief of Army Staff created to coordinate with military intelligence, operations and logistics wings.

At present, there are an estimated 950 to 1,000 officers posted at the Army HQ. The officers who will be weaned off the HQ will be available to the formations and units. As many as 229 officers from the headquarters will be “optimised and relocated to units and formations of the filed armies”. Ninety per cent of these officers are from the ranks of Colonel and below.

Strategy & Operations. The new Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Strategy) will oversee strategy and operations, intelligence collation, conduct of operations and the movement of logistics. At present, the DG (Military Operations) and the DG (Military Intelligence) report to the Army Chief or Vice-Chief. The new DG (IW) will have the erstwhile ADGs (Public Information) and Information Warfare (IW) wings under him to counter social media propaganda and hybrid warfare.

Information Warfare. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has also okayed the creation of a consolidated information warfare wing that will subsume two existing wings under the DGMI and the DGMO. The Information Warfare branch will be headed by the Lieutenant General rank officer and will come under another newly created appointment- Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Strategy).The new DG IW (Director General Information Warfare) will have under him the erstwhile ADGs PI (Public Information) and IW (Information Warfare) to meet needs of the future battlefield, hybrid warfare and social media reality.

The ADGPI branch deals with media projection and has a social media wing, which is likely to remain untouched. The existing Information Warfare branch operates under the Military Operations directorate. Separately, a cyber unit will also be placed under the DG IW.

Military Training. The third major reform is that the Army’s Training Command based in Shimla will now be sole adviser to the Army Chief on all training matters. The Military Training Directorate in Delhi is being merged into the Army Training Command (ARTRAC) in Shimla.

Capability & Sustenance. Also, the restructuring will merge the Master General Ordnance (MGO), who is currently under the Vice-Chief, and the DG (Weapons and Equipment) under a single vertical with the Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Planning and Strategy), which will be renamed Capability and Sustenance. Now all acquisitions of the Army will be handled by a new office under the Director-General (Capability Development). The revenue budget will be handled by DG (Sustenance).

Vigilance & Human Rights. New wings for vigilance and human rights issues will be set up under major-generals. The ADG (vigilance) wing will have officers drawn from the three services for an objective and impartial approach and will report directly to the army chief. The ADG (human rights) branch will have a police officer on deputation, he said. The ADG (human rights) will report to the director general of military operations.

Countering Pak-sponsored Terrorism

Gen Naravane inherits the threat posed by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and its asymmetric warfare offensive against India, which began some 30 years ago in the Punjab in the 1980s. Since then Pakistan has shifted its proxy war to Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), although we have seen some sparks again in Punjab through its support to Khalistanis and the use of drones to drop arms, ammunition and equipment to the separatists there. Yet, it is an existential threat in Punjab.

In Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), the Abrogation of Article 370 on 5 August 2019, and the subsequent steps taken to prevent large scale disturbances have brought down violence in the state, but the reorganization has brought in its own internal and external challenges, which are yet to show up in full. The political initiative, which was long overdue and which the Army had always been asking for, has yet to run its full course – until the elections are held in the state, as promised by the central government.

Pakistan’s deep state – the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the military – is somewhat subdued at present, partly due to the pressure being asserted by the Unites States and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to force Pakistan to take action against declared terrorists, money laundering and to conform to international financial transaction standards. It has not helped Pakistan that its all-weather ally, China, has not done sufficiently enough to come to its help despite trying to raise the J&K issue in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its chairmanship of the FATF. In fact, China has tried but Indian diplomacy has successfully thwarted all attempts by China to rake up the issue.

Troops levels are being reduced in J&K, casualty figures show a downward trend but cease fire violations on the Line of Control show an upward trend. The upper hand and the moral ascendency over Pakistan in the proxy war must be maintained. That would be Gen Naravane’s principal operational task.

One way which has been tried and tested in the last two years is to retaliate every time there is a serious breach by Pakistan and raise costs and consequences for it in all manner possible without crossing the threshold. That threshold is now being pushed further and further as the deep aerial strike of 26 February 2019 at Balakot, in response to the Pulwama attack that killed 45 CRPF soldiers, showed. It is no one’s guess that the surgical strike 1.0 carried out on 29 September  2016 after the Uri attack was not the last one that the country has seen. The time to remain defensive, confined to consequence management in our own territory, which was the norm for 30 years, has now passed. As a corollary, one must say that creating the military capacity for punitive action is a sine qua non if Pakistani terror is not to continue unabated.

Maoist Menace

The police and home ministry have been claiming great success in containing the Maoists and reducing their influence. The unfortunate fact, however, is that each year in Apr-May they launch an annual tactical counter-offensive and inflict heavy losses on the police and Central Police Organisations (CPOs) and loot weapons. Their strike power is intact and we have not been able to penetrate the dense jungles of Dantewada to destroy the armed Maoist groups in that sanctuary. The number of armed Maoist battalions has gone up from 3 to 21 in this forest redoubt. This is most dangerous and we cannot lull ourselves into complacency.

Conventional Capacity Building

Balakot was a great morale booster but it also pointed out glaring shortcomings in our national security architecture. We need to get our act together for urgently needed arms acquisition. The process is dangerously dysfunctional and mired in so much red tape that it is becoming impossible to execute major arms acquisition programmes in any reasonable time frame.

With the CDS in place with the express mandate to coordinate and prioritise acquisitions, there should be some improvement, but one cannot shy away from the fact that within the Army, too, refining and deciding upon requirements is a time-consuming process. There are external factors, which are beyond the COAS’ control, like the planning and budgeting process itself, complicated defence procurement procedure (DPP), multi-layered sanctions and approvals, repeated cancellation of tenders, long trial periods and so on. But even government-to-government deals and procurement under fast-track procedures have always overshot the laid down timelines.

The Indian Army is the 2nd largest armed force at 1.3 million behind the Chinese Army. In the Global Fire Power Index, which is arrived at by considering 55 indices, Indian Armed Forces rank 4th. India ranks a poor 25th in terms of Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFV), which include Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV); and 26th in terms of Self-Propelled (SP) Artillery.

It would have been a different matter if India were an arms exporter but it ranks nowhere in the first ten. In fact, India was the world’s second-largest arms importer during 2014-18, accounting for 9.5% of the global total, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) which released its report released on 11 March 2019.

In terms of defence expenditure, China spends five times more than India, with its Defence Budget pegged at $250 bn (1,9% of GDP) for 2018, while India’s Defence Budget for 2018-19 was $51 bn (1.63% of GDP).

A large quantity of the Indian Army’s equipment is of foreign origin, notably Russian and much of it requires replacement or upgrade. Among them are T-72 tanks, T-90 tanks, BMP-2, Zsu-23-2, Zsu-23-4, Kvadrat air defence system, OSA-AK air defence system, Dragunov sniper rifles and so on.

Weapon Systems and Platforms

Mechanised Forces. The mechanised forces are equipped with Russian T-72 tanks, assembled in India, many of which have undergone upgrades but are nevertheless in need of replacement with a ‘Future Ready Combat Vehicle’ (FRCV) or future main battle tank (MBT) – ultimately 2400 to be precise. The Army will in time add 464 T-90MS standard tanks in due course after negotiating a licence to make them in India. That will bring the T-90 tanks to a fleet strength of 1000. The target is 1600.

All 1770 BMP-2 IFVs require to be replaced by modern IFVs. The search for a Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV) started in 2010. The Expression of Interest (EoI) was issued for the third time in November 2017 after two failed attempts. When it does come, it might be a world-class tank but whether the Army will embrace it, cannot be certain.

Anti-Tank Guided Missiles. The Russian Konkurs and French Milan anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) are widely used and the Army has been waiting for many years for DRDO to finalise the development of the Nag ATGM. While the project is delayed, the government appears ready to approve the procurement of limited numbers of Israel Rafael’s Spike ATGM.

Ammunition. The CAG had pointed out in 2017 that “Out of a total of 152 types of ammunition, the stock of 121 types of ammunition (80%) was below the authorization level of 10 days intense fighting. And availability of 55 per cent types of ammunition was below the minimum inescapable requirement to be maintained for operational preparedness and 40 per cent types of ammunitions were critical level having stock of less than 10 days,” The situation has since improved after fast-track purchases, but it is still alarming. What has emerged is that the Ordnance Factories are unable to meet the requirements of the armed forces as indented from time to time.

Artillery. 10 K-9 Vajra 155mm tracked self-propelled (SP) guns, made under licence by L&T Defence in India, were inducted on 9 November 2018.The entire process of inducting 100 K9 Vajra at a cost of Rs 4,366 crore will be completed by November 2020.

The Ordnance Factory Board’s (OFB) 155mm/45 calibre Dhanush gun, developed from the designs transferred by Bofors in 1980 to OFB, as part of transfer of technology (ToT) of the FH-77 155mm Bofors howitzer has been successfully inducted into the Army on 8 April 2019. The OFB will make 114 guns.

The Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS), developed both by Bharat Forge and Tata Defence& Aerospace, separately, based on DRDO designs has also passed muster and is undergoing final user trials. The MoD had sanctioned the ATAGS project in September 2012. A prototype was part of the Republic Day parade in 2017.

The BAE System’s M777 155mm ultra-light howitzer (ULH) was also inducted into service in November 2018. 145 pieces will be supplied.

An improved longer range Pinaka rocket for the multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL) has been developed by DRDO. The Artillery also wants an indigenous Smerch-type long-range MBRL to be produced in India.

Air Defence. The Russian Igla-S has been selected as the very short-range air defence (VSHORAD) system weapon of choice through a contest between but the contract is yet to be finalised.

Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) and DRDO have completed trials of the quick reaction Surface-to-air missile (QRSAM).

Akash Weapon System (AWS) has been developed as a short-range surface-to-air missile (SRSAM) and two regiments have been inducted into service, while two more have been approved for purchase.

For the ground-based air defence weapons systems for area and point defence – the L70 gun and the ZSU-23-2 – the RFI was issued in January 2019 and the upgrade efforts also continue.

Infantry. The Future Infantry Soldier as a System (F-INSAS) has been abandoned as an integrated approach. Instead, various components of the system are being pursued separately for procurement.

A Rs 639 crore contract was signed on 10 April 2018 with SMPP Ltd, an Indian vendor for the procurement of 186,138 bullet proof jackets (BPJs). The first lot of BPJs was delivered in April 2019.

A limited quantity (72,000) of Sig Sauer 716 assault rifles and 93,000 Caracal 816 carbines are being procured through Fast Track Procedure (FTP). Meanwhile, an Ordnance Factory is being established at Rae Bareilly to produce the AK-203 assault rifle in large numbers to cater for the remainder required of the armed forces and the paramilitary as well as for export.

The Infantry also requires a lighter, more lethal shoulder fired anti-tank weapon, notably the Carl Gustav Mk IV, a Battlefield Surveillance Radar (BFSR) and an improved 81mm mortar.

Network-centric Operations. The Rs 50,000 crore Battlefield Management System (BMS) was envisaged by the Army to enable a faster decision process by commanders at all echelons, enable better decision due to reliable operational information provided in real time and have the ability to quickly close the sensor to shooter loop by integrating all surveillance means to facilitate engagement through an automated decision support and command and control system, exploiting technology for mission accomplishment in the Tactical Battle Area (TBA).

The project has been abandoned indefinitely due to costs involved. The Army chief reviewed the project in 2018 and decided to put it on the back-burner in favour of other projects.

Army Aviation. While the Army had asked for 39 AH-64E multi-role attack helicopters, the government has accepted to procure six for it for the time being in addition to the 22 Apaches on order for the IAF.

The Rudra ALH-WSI armed helicopter based on the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) is making steady progress, though the selection of anti-tank missiles it will carry is yet to be finalised. The production of the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) has started. The Army wants 114 LCH.

Army Aviation is expected to replace its ageing Chetak and Cheetah helicopters with the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) Light Utility Helicopter (LUH).

The Army continues to use Israeli IAI Searcher II unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and is looking to add to its fleet. Sadly, the Army is poorly equipped with such vital force-multipliers.

Combat Engineering. The Engineers are looking for lighter, redeployable, foldable and air-portable bridges. Similarly, they would like to have lighter, higher capacity assault trackway, quick repair materials for damaged runways and fuel-air explosive (FAE) solutions for destroying mines.

Infrastructure

Alongside modernisation of equipment, it si important for infrastructure – strategic roads, railway and bases – to be improved. The Chinese have built all-weather class-9 or 24 roads right up to all their posts in all sectors. They have excellent lateral roads. Their railway system and pipelines are being extended to major logistics bases. Deployment time of their formations has been cut down to enable them to launch an offensive for short duration wars while stocking is done for follow up echelons.

Overview

The fact remains that in the case of major systems, like artillery guns, main battle tanks, infantry combat vehicles, anti-tank weapons, air defence weapon systems, etc, we are far short of the ideal mix of obsolete-legacy-modern systems that should be in service at any time. Blaming the Defence Reasearch& Development Organisation (DRDO), public sector undertakings (PSUs) or Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) alone is not enough. The Army should push for change. The Army Design Bureau, now in a fledgling state, the almost defunct Army Technology Board, and other initiatives must evolve into effective organisations capable of driving research and innovation. The enhanced powers of the Army Commanders, vice chief of army staff and other down the chain must be utilised to support procurement from private industry so as to force DRDO, PSUs and OFB to compete. The Army must also resolutely fight for user involvement in development, favourable terms and conditions like penalties for cost and time overruns, shortcomings in quality and guaranteed serviceability and availability of equipment.

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