In the case of India, there are strong projections for the Prime Minister Modi to occupy the office again. In India, the general elections are scheduled to be conducted in several phases between 19 April-1 June, 2024. Due to the enormity of the voter population, India’s elections will be held in phases to ensure 970 million voters can cast their votes in a secure environment. In India, Prime Minister Modi is seeking a successive third term. The opposition coalition, INDI alliance, has faced significant turmoil even before it could take off. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party attempted the Bharat jodo yatra, he is able to gather crowds but failed to project himself as a strong prime minister candidate. On the other hand, the incumbent prime minister with the country-wide infrastructure development, scientific advancements, economic restructuring with social development programs, is most likely assured victory in the elections.

The US is due for presidential elections in November 2024. In the US, it is a lengthy stretched process, over a period of two years, with several rounds of debates and elections, even within the parties themselves, for the selection of the presidential candidate. Towards the 2024 elections, after the Super Tuesday, President Trump has emerged as the Republican candidate, and President Biden is a leading Democrat candidate for the upcoming Presidential elections. Nonetheless, no matter who occupies the office in the US, its relationship with India stands on a solid foundation, and there has been bipartisan support for India.

There are several factors, over couple of decades, that catapulted the current momentum for a multidimensional strategic partnership.

Shifting of Nuclear Goal Posts

The upward swing in the US-India relations can be traced to the Clinton administration. Especially, to the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh talkathon, fourteen rounds of talks between 1998-2000, launched in the immediate aftermath of India’s nuclear tests and the resultant sanctions. This unprecedented dialogue led to mutual understanding of the geopolitical concerns of India along with the circumstances caused the “shifting of the nuclear goal posts”. Prior to the talks, Clinton was adamant on India to ‘Cap, rollback and eliminate.’ Later, in 1999, during the Kargil War, he came forth in outright support of India against Pakistan. This was in “stark contrast to the 1971 war, when Washington had situated its nuclear submarines in support of Pakistan.”

Subsequently, in March 2000, Clinton during his state visit and addressing India’s Parliament, affirmed that, “I say this with great respect. Only India can determine its interests.” His visit marked the first visit of a US President in 17 years and “institutionalized a high-level, multi-tiered and multi-faceted dialogue with India.”

Nuclear Agreement

His successor President Bush confronted with the post 9-11 challenges, recognized the dire urgency to engage India in the global counterterrorism and nonproliferation efforts. Bush coined the term ‘Strategic Partnership,’ with India, based on reciprocal obligations to deal with the “multitudinous and complex threats of the post 9/11 world.” Viewed narrowly, in the Cold War perspective, the strategic partnership was mistaken as an alliance to maintain the Asian geopolitical balance of power, specifically directed against China. On the contrary, the Bush Administration wanted to enlist India’s support at a global level for the shaping of the future world order.

Alongside, the landmark US-India collaborative measures, the High Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG) and the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) overcame the nuclear disjuncture, hitherto plaguing the US-India relationship. This enabled the Bush Administration to uproot the nuclear barriers, and the offer of the civilian nuclear technologies based on reciprocal obligations. This helped US-India overcome decades of nuclear estrangement and launch partnership based on strategic interests. In 2010, Obama supported India’s seat in the UNSC as a permanent member recognizing it as ‘indispensable’ partner for the coming century.” Over successive administrations, this created space for the US-India relationship to emerge as “one of equal partners and equal strategic interest.” Thus, in the last couple of decades, this change in approach towards India, can be greatly attributed to the change in Washington’s approach to restructure its own security framework- from region focused to global level.

Modi Factor

This restructuring aligns with Modi’s approach to (re)launch India at the global level to be recognized as a global stakeholder. Towards this, Modi based on his diplomatic craftsmanship with two Democrat and a Republican Presidents, yet three different personas (from Obama to Trump and now, Biden) ignited multi-sectoral comprehensive strategic partnership.

Initially, the Obama Administration seemed to be proceeding cautiously with the so-called Hindu nationalist Modi regime. However, subsequently, in an unprecedented move, recognized India as a “Major Defense Partner.” In 2016, Obama and Modi signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), that allowed the militaries of both countries to use each other’s facilities for refueling and strategic coordination. Especially for India, it was a significant development, as it enhanced India’s maritime prowess and navigation in Indian Ocean, for humanitarian and strategic purposes.

READ MORE : India-US : India, US Set to Deepen Strategic Relationship

In fact, the successive administration, headed by Trump, a Republican, exhibited ‘bromance’ with Modi. This was evident in the Howdy Modi event (Sept 2019), at the NRG stadium (Houston), a joint gathering of diverse groups of officials, businesses, along with gathering of 50,000 Indian diaspora. On the one hand, Trump focused on economic gains, removed India from special trade status from the preferential trade, called the Generalized System of Preferences. Yet, on the other hand, there was significant defense cooperation agreements along with the launching of the Tiger Triumph exercises with New Delhi. The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) agreement granted India access to the advanced communication technology and real time information sharing between the US and India defense agencies. Similarly, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) enabled geospatial information sharing, critical for India to navigate the maritime domain, marks significant strategic cooperation.

Thus, during 2016-2020, the LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA sealed the foundational core for the US-India strategic defense partnership enabling India to obtain critical advanced technologies to strengthen its defense communications, navigation and targeting capabilities.

Modi-Biden

In 2020, with the onset of the Biden Presidency, there were speculations that the ‘bromance’ between US-India would be elusive. Nevertheless, the Biden Administration, moving beyond the narrow geopolitical confines, launched multi-sectoral cooperation with India. Probably because Biden, as former US Secretary of State during the Obama Administration, was aware of the necessity to harness India’s engagement in Washington’s global security framework, beyond the confines of South Asia. This aligned with the India’s strategic vision under the Modi regime as well, as evident in intense collaboration in the varied sectors – ranging from defence (joint production of F414 jet engines), critical emerging technology (iCET,) space exploration (NISAR), cyberspace, semiconductor supply chain, AI and quantum technologies, and 5G/6G telecommunications. Modi and Biden, besides their intense bilateral dialogue, have proactively engaged in multiple triangular and multilateral fora, such as the QUAD, I2U2, G20, etc.

‘Strategic Convergence’ beyond China

Currently, there is a persistent hyper-linkage with the ‘counter-China’ factor. Regardless to say, India’s and the US apprehensions of China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean have contributed to the “strategic convergence” and the urgency “to counter China in the Indo-Pacific Region.” This is visible in the revival of the QUAD, and other Indo-Pacific arrangements. Yet, it is not restricted to this factor alone. Modi is focused on establishing India’s military prowess as well as strategic positioning. This may deter China from military overtures, yet, India will be ready to successfully thwart such attempts, in case the situation arises.

US is clearly aware that India under Modi’s astute leadership, a strong India will handle the China challenge. So, definitely there is a ‘strategic convergence’ of interests, but, this is not a conditional relationship, nor exclusively setting up India to counter China. As Washington is aware that New Delhi will uphold its strategic autonomy and not take dictates regarding its foreign or domestic issues.

It is crucial to overcome the persistent China ‘hangover.’ China is a lingering challenge to both India and the US, but to view their relationship in the narrow confines of the China factor is erroneous. Rather the engagement of India should be viewed as an attempt by Washington to restructuring its foreign and security policy at the global level. Especially, in view of the growing focus on the strategic issues related to Indo-Pacific or the entire Indian Ocean region (covering the Middle East) as well as non-military challenges related to climate change, health, quantum computing, space, clean energy, AI and so on.

READ MORE: Support building in US think tanks against sanctioning India

Due to intense dialogue, since 1998, both official and informal (including policy community, Indian diaspora etc.) there is a greater multi-level, multi-dimensional sense of security partnership established between the two countries. This is the reason that regardless of the occupants of the political office, this symbiotic relationship will strengthen. There is possibility that at times, some issue(s) may emerge to create concerns regarding the internal or external issues related to India. For instance, US representatives expressed concerns on the alleged attacks on the Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, and the recent arrest of the Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal. There may be several reasons for the concerns being raised by Washington. India has handled these charges effectively.

However, besides political relations, multiple channels of communication and dialogue have been established that there may be some wavering but it will be difficult to derail the momentum. Moreover, the US recognizes India’s strategic autonomy and has on several occasions has recognized India’s exceptional stand on certain issues. For example, in 2014, the Obama Administration had categorically warned countries to prohibit trade with Iran. Yet, US realized India’s reliance on oil import from Iran was crucial for the latter’s energy security and simply advised to adhere to global obligations as well.

Thus, to conclude, India-US is a dynamic multidimensional strategic partnership, in several vital areas of defence, space, climate change, critical technologies. Regardless of the incumbents’ post 2024 elections, the US-India relations will forge ahead. As President Biden enthusiastically acknowledged that the US-India relationship, “is among the most consequential in the world, that is stronger, closer, and more dynamic than any time in history.”

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“I think it makes eminent sense for India to produce world-class defence equipment for its own needs, and potentially as an exporter, for the world,” US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu told PTI on 20 April.

The senior State Department official, however, refrained from giving details of the major defence collaboration to manufacture modern and sophisticated defence equipment in India.

“We are already major partners in the defence field. We, over the last 20 years, have had a defence trade of over USD 20 billion. And I know our private companies and our governments, our ministries of defence are talking on a regular basis about how we cooperate,” he said.

Lu pointed out that last April during the Two Plus Two Dialogue involving India’s Minister of Defence and External Affairs Minister and their American counterparts Secretary of Defence and Secretary of State, for the first time there was American support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Make in India initiative.

“We can see that India is shifting away from dependency on other countries and looking to produce defence supplies, and defence equipment in India itself and that’s a process we strongly support. And I hope in the coming months that you will see announcements, a major collaboration between our countries for sophisticated, modern, capable defence equipment that will be made in India,” Lu told PTI in response to a question.

This is “absolutely part” of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET) Dialogue that was launched by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit K Doval and his American counterpart Jake Sullivan, he noted.

“But it’s something we have been working on now for several years with India. I think you’ll see this year ahead will be pivotal in terms of our defence cooperation,” he said.

Lu, however, refrained from giving any other details. “I think that’s as much as I’m able to say in detail. But it will be exciting. And I hope by the end of the year that we will have a more detailed discussion about what those specific defence cooperation items are,” he said.

According to an Indian Embassy fact sheet, India-US defence cooperation is based on the “New Framework for India-US Defence Cooperation”, which was renewed for a period of ten years in 2015.

In 2016, the defence relationship was designated as a Major Defence Partnership (MDP) to build a comprehensive, enduring and mutually beneficial defence partnership.

On July 30, 2018, India was moved into the Tier-1 of the US Department of Commerce’s Strategic Trade Authorization license exception.

The Defence Policy Group (DPG) headed by the Defence Secretary and Under Secretary of Defence (Policy) provides a platform for a comprehensive review of defence dialogues/mechanisms.

In August 2022, a US Navy Ship (USNS) Charles Drew visited Chennai for repairs and allied services. This was the first-ever repair of a US Navy ship in India.

Several defence agreements have been signed, including the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Association (2016); the Memorandum of Intent between the US Defence Innovation Unit (DIU), and the Indian Defence Innovation Organisation – Innovation for Defence Excellence (2018); Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (2018); Industrial Security Agreement (2019); Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (2020).

Bilateral exercises include Yudh Abhyas (Army); Vajra Prahar (Special Forces), and a tri-services exercise- Tiger Triumph (inaugurated in 2019).

India joined the multilateral Combined Maritime Force (CMF) based in Bahrain, as an Associate Partner in April 2022. In November 2022, the Australian Navy joined the US-India-Japan MALABAR annual Naval Exercise. The US participated in India’s multilateral Exercise Milan 2022.

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The two sides discussed free and open Indo-Pacific, the ongoing war in Ukraine and counter terrorism cooperation. Discussions also included the developments in the Indian subcontinent (Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Pakistan’s political chaos).

The readouts released by the both sides did not mention India speaking about China directly. However, the US Secretary of Defence did mention China directly. At the 2+2 meeting he said, “The People’s Republic of China is seeking to refashion the region and the international system more broadly in ways that serve its authoritarian interests. But as we operationalise our defence agreements and take our cooperation to the next level, I believe that we can sustain and strengthen a favourable balance of power in the region.”

In focus was building a resilient, regional security architecture.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke about the growing depth and scale of defence partnership. He highlighted how India’s defence supplies from USA has reached $20 billion.

The Ministers reaffirmed the vital role of secure, resilient, reliable, and diverse supply chains for Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET), and the need to enable regional and global innovation. The Ministers decided to put in place a framework to advance cooperation in CET such as advanced communication technology, artificial intelligence, quantum science, STEM, semi-conductors and biotechnology.

Recalling their countries’ strong tradition of space exploration and endeavors, the Ministers announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness and pledged to expand bilateral space cooperation, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment. They applauded the ongoing development of the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite, planned for launch from India in 2023. The NISAR mission will collect data vital to tackling the climate crisis. The Ministers also looked forward to the convening of the next India-U.S. Civil Space Joint Working Group in 2022.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022.

They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India.

The Ministers committed to continued exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, countering violent radicalism, use of the Internet for terrorist purposes, and cross-border movement of terrorists. The Ministers also emphasized the importance of upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations.

Recognizing the importance of protecting cultural heritage, the Ministers committed to work toward negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding that will deepen cooperation in this area and assist authorities in combatting the trade in cultural artifacts and facilitating their repatriation.

Defense and Security

The Ministers commended the significant and continuing progress in the India-U.S. Major Defense Partnership. Drawing on the momentum from the India-U.S. Defense Policy Group meeting in October 2021, they reaffirmed their ambitions for building an advanced and comprehensive defense partnership in which the U.S. and Indian militaries coordinate closely together across all domains.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022. They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

As information-sharing forms an important pillar of the India-U.S. defense cooperation, the Ministers underlined the importance of building a comprehensive framework under which our militaries are equipped to exchange information in real time across domains. The Ministers welcomed progress made toward full implementation of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) to support the exchange of geospatial information. The Ministers noted that information exchange and placement of liaison officers in each other’s military organizations will spur joint service cooperation between our militaries to support integrated and multi-domain cooperation.

Acknowledging that their navies have been a driving force in advancing the United States and India’s shared interests in the Indian Ocean Region and the wider Indo-Pacific, the Ministers discussed opportunities to further advance and deepen maritime cooperation, including in underwater domain awareness.

The United States also welcomed India’s decision to join the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force as an Associate Partner to expand multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean. The Ministers lauded the 2022 Indo-Pacific Military Health Exchange, which India and the United States co-hosted to bring together experts from 38 countries to discuss challenges and solutions to military medical issues. Both sides look forward to India’s co-hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC) and Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) in 2023.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of regular bilateral and multilateral exercises, including the MALABAR exercise with inclusion of Australia, the tri-service TIGER TRIUMPH exercise, the multilateral MILAN naval exercise, the bilateral YUDH ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR Army exercises, the bilateral COPE India air exercise, and Indian participation in RED FLAG. They supported increasing the scope and complexity of these exercises. They looked forward to deepening cooperation between the Special Forces of both countries.

Recognizing the importance of building robust private industry collaboration, the Ministers welcomed ongoing projects under the auspices of the India-U.S. Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), including a project agreement to co-develop Air-Launched UAVs. They called on both sides to consider additional DTTI projects, such as a counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS) system and an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform. They also lauded the rapid growth in bilateral defense trade over the past decade.

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India. To further enhance defense industrial cooperation in the naval sector, both sides agreed to explore possibilities of utilizing the Indian shipyards for repair and maintenance of ships of the U.S. Maritime Sealift Command (MSC) to support mid-voyage repair of U.S. Naval ships.

Military Tech Cooperation Document

India has shared a document with the US outlining emerging areas where military technology cooperation can be undertaken by the two nations and specialised teams are likely to conduct visits in the coming weeks to take the proposals forward. US defence companies, including those which met Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, are also likely to invest in India. India’s commitment to self-dependence has been received well.

Major US arms manufacturer Raytheon is likely to invest $100 million in setting up production and research facilities in India, while Boeing is exploring the possibility of creating a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul hub for systems like the P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft that are used by both nations. Plans by Raytheon could result in the creation of over 2,000 jobs in India.

Co-production of military systems was a key component of the talks, with emerging technology areas including artificial intelligence, cyber defence and space cooperation on the table. “There is now a clear understanding by both sides that jointly working on futuristic technologies is the way forward. It’s a major step above a simple buyer-seller relationship,” officials said.

The Indian side also pitched its shipyards for upcoming purchases planned by the US Coast Guard, showcasing their capability to deliver low cost, high quality products as well as a proven track record on delivery.

US teams are also expected to visit India soon to take forward a proposal to utilise Indian shipyards for repair and overhaul of American warships in the region. Such an arrangement, where US warships can be quickly turned around at Indian facilities, would be a key signal on the level of strategic partnership achieved.

“Closer military-military cooperation, increased engagement, information sharing and possible joint patrolling were discussed, with a focus on high end technology sharing,” officials added.

On the strategic front, the security scenario in the Indo-Pacific was discussed, with both sides sharing their commitment to peace and open access to all. The importance of the Quad initiative was appreciated during the talks and enhanced cooperation discussed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is likely to visit the remaining quad nations — Japan and Australia — in the coming months.

On the Russia front, officials said that India’s position on the matter was explained in detail and has been understood by the US.

Comments

The India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, held amid the Russia-Ukraine war, has ticked all the bilateral boxes, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to enhancing defence and strategic cooperation in various domains, including relatively new ones such as space, artificial intelligence and cyberspace.

The US has reiterated its support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council and New Delhi’s induction into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). India is keen to join the elite club whose members are entitled to hassle-free procurement of supplies from international markets for building and operating nuclear reactors, but China has been playing spoilsport in league with Pakistan. As of now, India’s N-push is powered by initiatives under the India-US Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group. Timely transfer of technology holds the key to a mutually beneficial strategic partnership, particularly in defence and energy sectors. India and the US need to redouble efforts to get the best results on this front.

Both countries are on the same page when it comes to envisioning a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and turning Quad into a formidable force that can make a lasting impact beyond its multilateral framework. With a new government set to take charge in Pakistan, it is significant that the troubled and troublesome country finds a mention in the joint statement. The ministers have called on Pakistan to take ‘immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks’. A similarly strong message has been conveyed to Afghanistan’s rulers, the Taliban. All in all, the dialogue makes it clear that India and the US will continue to give precedence to their common strategic interests, irrespective of geopolitical upheaval anywhere in the world.

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