The Type 003 carrier is China’s most-advanced warship ever built and its launch has cemented Beijing’s position as a top contender among global shipbuilding industries.​

China’s PLA Navy launched its latest Type 003 aircraft carrier on June 17, 2022, an indicator of Chinese naval shipbuilding prowess, making it the largest warship ever built in the nation.

China now has three aircraft carriers, in addition to over one hundred warships built over the last ten years, exceeding the growth of any navy worldwide.

Displacing 85,000 to 100,000 tons, and over 300 metres in length, the Type 003 is noteworthy for the speed of its development, particularly in skipping two generations of hydraulic and steam technology in its carrier launch technology. Instead, the Type 003 includes an electromagnetic launch system, competing with a more advanced US equivalent. The electromagnetic catapult technology will allow the Type 003 to field different military aircraft, increasing the range and effectiveness of the carrier, according to a US Department of Defence report to Congress.

China is in the process of developing a fourth aircraft carrier capable of nuclear propulsion, with leaked documents indicating that it will be capable of fielding advanced fighters and stealth jets, surveillance and control craft, anti-submarine helicopters and drones.

As China focuses on building its next-generation carrier, it’s also coming up short on aircraft to field them. With at least 22 J-15 carrier-compatible fighter jets, China will need more fighter aircraft if it is to equip two modern carriers, giving rise to expectations of a next-generation aircraft-based fighter to accommodate its new capacities.

A nuclear-capable aircraft carrier would only be limited by the amount of supplies it can carry at sea, and the resilience of its sailors, granting the ability to project force or deny across the world’s seas and coasts.

China’s latest aircraft carrier is not welcome news to US defence officials who also have to contend with the widespread use of satellite imagery and artificial intelligence, making it more difficult for large warships to maintain the advantage of surprise.

AI could allow satellites to quickly identify warship electronic signatures from space, despite scrambling and background noise.

Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System

Fujian’s electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS) will accelerate jets taking off at speed, assisting their take-off with such force the aircraft will be able to carry more fuel and weapons, therefore extending the reach and size of the punch the aircraft carrier packs. Early warning aircraft will be able to take off and land more easily, enhancing the carrier’s ability to spot its enemies from further away.

EMALS is also able to launch more aircraft at a greater rate, getting more jets into the air faster than its opponents using older technologies – and is vital for defending itself against incoming attacks.

This latest feature gives the Fujian a significant edge, as only the United States’ latest Ford-class of aircraft carrier is equipped with it. France is slowly developing a similar system and India is examining its feasibility, but outside the US, only China employs this system. Its navy has yet to operate a nuclear-powered carrier, as the US has done for decades. The Fujian is conventionally powered but predictions are that the next one to be built by China will be nuclear-powered.

The first two carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong, were ex-Soviet designs; the Liaoning initially bought for scrap from Ukraine and refitted. While antiquated, they have been used to train new generations of naval officers and pilots in the complex science and art of aircraft carrier operations.

This carrier will certainly impact the PLANs maritime capabilities… but it will not significantly impact U.S. warfighting capabilities in the Western Pacific.

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8 Feb 2024: Taiwan Straits

On 8 Feb 2024, China commenced a series of low-level air and naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These gradually increased in scope and scale. By early Mar 24, the PLAAF was sending almost 100 aircraft a day into the ADIZ (air defence identification zone) of Taiwan. The PLA Navy was regularly practising live fire drills in the waters around Taiwan. There were planted articles in the Chinese media saying these military exercises were to deter hotheads in Taiwan from making a Declaration of Independence. Solid intelligence had been received that this was likely. An announcement was made about a major amphibious exercise scheduled for mid or end-Apr that year. The aim of these exercises was to de-sensitise the Taiwanese defence forces as well as the Americans to high levels of military activity. In mid-Mar 24, a former presidential candidate made an impassioned speech condemning the president of Taiwan. He asked for the president’s impeachment and demanded that Taiwan declare Independence forthwith. He screamed, “China is trying to scare us with these endless war drills. This weak government is caving in. Enough is enough. ROC is a sovereign, democratic state. We declare our Independence from the hegemonistic Chinese regime now.”

Base 311 of the Strategic Support Forces Command dealing with Taiwan, went into overdrive. This statement was denounced in shrill terms on Chinese media and by the Chinese foreign minister himself. Chinese embassies in all major countries went into an overdrive with strident condemnation. The Chinese social media went berserk. The US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) was concerned enough to call his Chinese counterpart. “What’s happening? “he asked.

“Oh, don’t be alarmed General, these are just the usual noises we have to make to keep hotheads in Taiwan in line,” he soothed. Meanwhile, editorials in Global Times warned, “Let Taiwan not trifle with the mainland. China is a very powerful country.”

8 Apr 2024. Off the Coast of Taiwan.

In early Apr 2024, the met and tide conditions were just right. President Xi gave his final nod. The aircraft carrier battle group led by Liaoning steamed off for exercises in the East China Sea. The newest Fujian CV-18 aircraft carrier with its battle group sailed off for north of Taiwan. It had 70 J-15 aircrafts with an AEW on board. The Shandong CV-17 aircraft carrier battle group sailed for the South China Sea, also for exercises. Large flotillas led by Rinhai-class cruisers started moving out for exercises to off the coast of Fujian for an amphibious landing drill. As a precaution, the US Navy started staging forward one of its aircraft carrier battle groups.

0600 hours, 8 Apr 2024. An intense barrage of DF-11, DF-15 and DF-16 Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs 500-700 kms range), Navy anti-ship cruise missiles and YJ-12A supersonic cruise missiles, hit the presidential palace and Ministry of Defence, in Taipei. They also targeted three airfields, six radar stations and some major communication nodes. The president and senior officials were whisked away to safety in the nick of time. One General however, was wounded. At 0630 hours, a second wave of ballistic and cruise missiles hit the remaining air bases and radar stations and three major ammunition dumps and fuel storage tanks. A third wave of missiles struck airfields and radar stations again after an interval of 10 minutes.

Special Forces Operations. Meanwhile, six small teams of PLA Special Forces had landed on the coast of Taiwan via submarines and rubber dinghies well before dawn. They now raided the land-based cruise missile sites of the Taiwanese Navy that could target any invasion force. They succeeded in destroying four sites. The other teams were spotted by civilians and rounded up by the Taiwanese Army.

Air and Maritime Air Operations

0645 hrs, 8 Apr 2024. Some 200 fighter jets of the PLA Air Force crossed the median line and headed straight for Taiwan airfields from the Western direction. They were led by J-20 Stealth aircraft armed with BVR missiles. Just 10 minutes later, 60 aircraft took off from the aircraft carrier Fujian along with an AEW aircraft to help in the expected air-to-air combat with the Taiwan Air Force. Fierce air battles erupted as the dazed Taiwanese fighters rose up to challenge the invaders. The J-20s shot down eight F-16 and two Mirages. The F-16s downed one J-20 and three J-11s with their ARAAM missiles. The Chinese fighters from the Fujian did better, as all attention had been diverted towards the PLA Air Force fighters coming from the west. The Navy fighters bombed the target air bases. When they were returning, some brave Taiwanese F-16s and Mirages scrambled up to engage them. In the ensuing air battle five Mirages and two F–16 fighters were shot down for the loss of three J-15s.

0700 hours, 8 Apr 2024. President Xi Jinping went on TV and radio to broadcast a message. He said, “We had patiently and peacefully tried for re-unification of the motherland but to no avail. We recently received very disturbing intelligence that renegades on the island were trying to declare Independence. Such statements have now indeed been made in Taipei. We have still showed great restraint. Today, the Strategic Rocket Forces have made purely demonstrative strikes on Taiwan along with our PLA Air Force and Naval aviation. To seek reunification of the renegade island with the motherland, we are now announcing an air and maritime blockade of the island with immediate effect. We do not want any further escalation. This is purely an internal matter of China and no other country has any right to intervene. China is a peace loving country and would like to resolve it peacefully. We call upon authorities in Taiwan to commence negotiations at once for peaceful re-unification. That will resolve the crisis

0715 hours, 8 Apr 2024. Crisis Room, White House. Washington.

Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed the President and NSA. The president was shaken. “I thought we had defused it. We now have three wars on our hands. Do we want the third?” he asked.

“Mr President, we will have to react. Doing nothing will seriously erode our credibility,” said the grim-faced Chairman JCS.

“Frankly General, if this escalates, how ready are we now for a two-front war?” asked the NSA.

“Ready or not, we have no choice. We simply can’t do nothing. We will have to react,” replied the Chairman JCS obdurately.

“Yes, but can we do it in a way that this doesn’t escalate out of control?” asked the President. The Chairman JCS fell silent. He thought for a bit. Then he said, “Mr President, you could demand that the Chinese immediately call off the blockage and pay compensation for the damage caused in their so called ‘demonstrative’ strike. Meanwhile, we have already told our submarines to stage forward. By tomorrow they should be able to sink one or two major capital ships of the Chinese, as a ‘demonstration’ to start with. One of our aircraft carrier battle groups is already steaming toward the area. I have ordered two more carrier battle groups to set sail immediately,” said the Chairman JCS.

“Sink one or two Chinese warships? Won’t that be a declaration of war, General? asked the NSA.

“Yeah and China is a f—g nuclear armed country. This would be a direct clash, not a proxy war, as in Ukraine,” added the President.

“Sir, we can always say it was not us but one of their own mines they had sown for the blockade. That will put them in a decision dilemma as our carrier battle groups race for Taiwan.”

“What about our carrier battle group already half way? Won’t that get into a mess with their Fujian aircraft carrier or Chinese submarines before your neat subterfuge about mines hitting their ships can confuse them?” asked the President.

The Chairman JCS pursed his lips, “Mr President, that was a deterrence action. The situation has changed drastically now. I can order it to slow down and let other CBGs catch up if you wish to avoid immediate escalation and gain time. That will make the situation a bit more predictable and we won’t blunder into a shooting war right away.”

All three took a deep breath. The President knitted his brows, “OK, do that, I can’t think of anything smarter for the time being,” he said, but he was not liking this whole thing one bit.

1503 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Off North Eastern Coast of Taiwan.

The carrier battle group headed by CV-18 aircarft carrier Fujian had two Rinhai-class cruisers, four Luyang-class destroyers and 6 Jinhai-class frigates. It was the main battle group enforcing the blockade. At 1503 hours on 9 Apr 24, a torpedo struck a Rinhai-class cruiser. There was a massive explosion. The warship caught fire. The ship listed to one side and then sank slowly. Meanwhile, Taiwan scrambled its F-16s and Mirages also to attack this Chinese armada enforcing the blockade. The Taiwan jets were picked both by shore-based J-2000 AWACS and the AEW then in the air from the Fujian. J-15 fighters from the carrier and then a whole host of J-20, J-10 and J-11 aircrafts from the shore-based airfields, swarmed up. A major air battle erupted. The BVRs from the J-20s managed to shoot down 10 Mirages and four F-16s. Three J-15s and two J-10s were shot down in this melee. One Mirage fighter fired an Exocet anti-ship missile and badly damaged a Jiangkai-class frigate of the Chinese Navy. Three American carrier battle groups were now steaming full speed towards Taiwan.

1700 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Joint Operations Room. Beijing.

All members of the CMC and the entire top hierarchy of the PLA were in attendance. The Commander PLA Airforce briefed first. “In yesterday’s air battles we had shot down a total of 18 F-16s and 7 Mirages for a loss one J-20, three J- 10s and three J-11s (ratio 25:7). Today, the Taiwanese Air Force tried to attack our blockading force. In the combined air battle, we have shot down 10 Mirages and 8 F-16s. The enemy managed to shoot down three J-15s and two J-10 fighters (ratio 18 : 5). Overall, Taiwan has lost 43 jet fighters to our 12,” he said.

Commander PLA Navy briefed next. “Comrades, the most important development today is that an American nuclear submarine, fired a torpedo and sank our Rinhai-class cruiser. This is a major loss and is an act of war on part of the Americans. The Taiwanese Air Force mounted a major attack on our Fujian carrier battle group enforcing the blockade but was driven off with huge losses. One of our guided missile Jiangkai-class frigates was, however, damaged. We are now at war with USA and I recommend that we immediately fire DF-21D salvos on his three advancing carrier battle groups and stop them before they join battle.”

“Just one second,” Gen Zhang Youxia interjected. “I just got a call from the US Chairman JCS to say that they have no submarines in that area and this seems an accident caused by our own mines laid for the blockade.”

The Commander of PLA Navy went red in the face. “That’s a blatant lie. We must hit back immediately.”

“How do you want to do that?” asked President Xi Jinping.

Admiral Miao, member CMC spoke up. “As the Commander PLAN has rightly said, we must immediately engage the American aircraft carrier battle groups with non-stop salvos of DF-21D anti-ship missiles, till we draw blood. Meantime, we must not lose time and immediately attack the American bases in Okinawa and Guam. Otherwise, US and Japanese fighters and bombers from there, could hit our blockading forces and our cities on the east coast. Shanghai would be a prime target. Comrade President, this is not the time to hesitate. Hit back before we are hit hard. We must pre-empt the Americans.”

President Xi Jinping’s face was taut with tension. He swallowed hard and then took a few sips of water from his glass. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxia. “Comrade Zhang?” he queried.

“The Admiral is right. But that means full scale war that could go right up even to the nuclear level. So let’s pause and think now. The fact that the Americans have disowned their submarine attack on our Rinhai cruiser, tells me they are not keen to escalate. Maybe, they are also looking for a way out. We have amply shaken them up for now. Should we de-escalate and begin negotiations for a peaceful merger of Taiwan now? Or will that be too soon? Problem is, a day later may simply be too late.”

The question hung unanswered in the tense air of the Joint Operations Room in Beijing. All anxious faces turned towards the President of China.

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Compared with Liaoning and Shandong, U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are larger (about 100,000 tons full load displacement), nuclear powered (giving them greater cruising endurance than a conventionally powered ship), able to embark and operate a larger number of aircraft (60 or more), and launch fixed-wing aircraft using catapults, which can give those aircraft a range/payload capability greater than that of aircraft launched with a ski ramp.

China’s third carrier, Fujian (Type 003), was launched (i.e., put into the water for the final stages of its construction) in on June 17, 2022. ONI expects the ship to enter service by 2024. It is expected to be conventionally powered, closer in size to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, and equipped with catapults rather than a ski ramp for launching aircraft. China’s fourth carrier reportedly may have begun construction as early as 2021.

Observers have speculated that China may eventually field a force of four to six (or possibly more than six) aircraft carriers. In late November 2019, it was reported that the Chinese government, while deciding to proceed with the construction of the fourth carrier, had put on hold plans to build a fifth carrier, known as the Type 004, which was to be nuclear-powered, due to budgetary and technical considerations. Observers expect that it will be some time before China masters carrier-based aircraft operations on a substantial scale.

Liaoning (Type 001)

Liaoning is a refurbished ex-Ukrainian aircraft carrier that China purchased from Ukraine in 1998 as an unfinished ship. It is conventionally powered, has an estimated full load displacement of 60,000 to 66,000 tons, and reportedly can accommodate an air wing of 30 or more fixed-wing airplanes and helicopters, including 24 fighters. The Liaoning lacks aircraft catapults and instead launches fixed-wing airplanes off the ship’s bow using an inclined ski ramp.

Some observers have referred to the Liaoning as China’s “starter” carrier. China has been using Liaoning in part for pilot training. In May 2018, China reportedly announced that the aircraft carrier group formed around Liaoning had reached initial operational capability (IOC), although that term might not mean the same as it does when used by DOD in connection with U.S. weapon systems.

Shandong (Type 002)

Shandong is a modified version of the Liaoning design that incorporates some design improvements, including features that reportedly will permit it to embark and operate a larger air wing of 40 aircraft that includes 36 fighters. Its displacement is estimated at 66,000 to 70,000 tons.

Fujian (Type 003)

Earlier press reports had generally stated that Fujian might have a displacement of 80,000 tons to 85,000 tons. A November 29, 2020, press report, however, stated that satellite images of the ship under construction suggest that this estimate may be a bit low, and that Fujian might be closer in displacement to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers, which have a displacement of about 100,000 tons. Fujian is expected to be equipped with electromagnetic catapults rather than a ski ramp, which will improve the range/payload capability of the fixed-wing aircraft that they operate. A July 14, 2021, blog post stated that the ship might be launched (i.e., put into the water for the final stages of its construction) before the end of 2021.

China’s Fourth Carrier

A May 1, 2022, press report states: “Recent images of a stealth fighter jet at a naval airbase suggest China has begun pilot training preparations for a fourth aircraft carrier, defence experts say.” Some sources have stated that China’s fourth aircraft carrier would be built to the Type 003 design. Press reports from October 10, 2022, and March 13, 2021, however, suggest that the ship may be nuclear-powered rather than conventionally powered.

Commercial Heavy-Lift Ship Reportedly Used in Exercise as Helicopter Carrier

In August 2020, it was reported that China had used a commercial heavy-lift ship in a military exercise as a platform for operating at least two PLA Army helicopters.

Carrier-Based Aircraft

China’s primary carrier-based fighter aircraft is the J-15 or Flying Shark, an aircraft derived from the Russian Su-33 Flanker aircraft design that can operate from carriers equipped with a ski ramp rather than catapults, but which some observers have critiqued for its range/payload limitations in operations from carriers equipped with ski ramps rather than catapults. December 2021 press reports stated that China has developed an upgraded, catapult-capable version of the J-15 that could have improved range/payload when operated from a catapult-equipped carrier.

China reportedly plans to develop a carrier-capable variant of its J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter and/or a carrier-capable variant of its FC-31 fifth-generation stealth fighter (reportedly now designated J-35) to complement or succeed the J-15 on catapult-equipped Chinese carriers.

China reportedly is also developing a carrier-based airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, called the KJ-600, that is similar to the U.S. Navy’s carrier-based E-2 Hawkeye AEW aircraft, and stealth drone aircraft.

Roles and Missions

Although aircraft carriers might have some value for China in Taiwan-related conflict scenarios, they are not considered critical for Chinese operations in such scenarios, because Taiwan is within range of land-based Chinese aircraft. Consequently, most observers believe that China is acquiring carriers primarily for their value in other kinds of operations, and to demonstrate China’s status as a leading regional power and major world power. Chinese aircraft carriers could be used for power-projection operations, particularly in scenarios that do not involve opposing U.S. forces, and to impress or intimidate foreign observers.

Chinese aircraft carriers could also be used for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) operations, maritime security operations (such as anti-piracy operations), and noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs). Politically, aircraft carriers could be particularly valuable to China for projecting an image of China as a major world power, because aircraft carriers are viewed by many as symbols of major world power status. In a combat situation involving opposing U.S. naval and air forces, Chinese aircraft carriers would be highly vulnerable to attack by U.S. ships and aircraft, but conducting such attacks could divert U.S. ships and aircraft from performing other missions in a conflict situation with China.

Based on the US Congressional Reserach Service Report on China Naval Modernisation, Nov 2022

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China’s aircraft carrier fleet is becoming more advanced, with larger and more capable ships, making them more powerful projection of military power.

China’s carrier-borne aircraft fleet is becoming more advanced and capable with the inclusion of stealth capabilities, making them more difficult to detect and defend against.

China’s frigates and destroyers are becoming more advanced and capable with the inclusion of stealth technology and advanced weaponry, making them more powerful in their roles as defensive and offensive platforms.

Developments in anti-ship missiles have led to concerns about the potential threat they pose to naval vessels in the region, particularly in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea.

China’s amphibious ships are becoming larger and more capable, making them more powerful platforms for amphibious operations and power projection.

Nuclear and Conventional Submarines

In terms of nuclear-powered submarines, China has developed the Type 095 and Type 096 classes of submarines, are believed to be equipped with advanced stealth technology and more advanced weaponry, including new types of cruise missiles and torpedoes.

China has also developed new conventional diesel-electric stealth submarines such as the Type 039A and Type 039B, equipped with land-attack cruise missiles.

Aircraft Carriers

The Chinese Navy currently operates two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning, a refurbished Soviet-era carrier and the Type 001A, which is a domestically built carrier.

China is currently building its third aircraft carrier, the Type 002. It will be the first aircraft carrier to be equipped with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), instead of traditional steam catapults.

China is also developing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Type 003, which is currently under construction. It will be the first aircraft carrier of its kind in the Chinese Navy and will be equipped with advanced technologies such as an EMALS, a more advanced radar system, and a larger flight deck.

Carrier-borne Aircraft

The Chinese Navy currently operates the J-15, a carrier-borne fighter aircraft, which is based on the Russian Su-33 aircraft and is primarily used for air defense and strike missions. The J-15 is equipped with advanced avionics, weapons systems, and radar, allowing it to engage both air and ground targets.

China is also developing a new carrier-borne fighter aircraft, the J-31, which is designed to have a stealth capability, to operate from both the Liaoning and the Type 001A aircraft carriers.

China is also working on a new advanced carrier-borne early warning aircraft, the KJ-600.

In addition, China has been developing new carrier-borne unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as the Lijian (Sharp Sword) stealth UAV which is designed for reconnaissance and strike missions.

Chinese Naval Surface Combatants

In terms of frigates, China has developed the Type 054A and Type 054B classes of stealth frigates, which are equipped with advanced weapons systems, including anti-ship missiles and surface-to-air missiles, as well as radar and sonar systems.

In terms of destroyers, China has developed the Type 055 class of stealth destroyers, which are equipped with advanced weapons systems, including long-range anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, as well as radar and sonar systems.

China is also developing the Type 056 class of stealth corvettes, which are smaller than frigates but larger than patrol boats.

Anti-ship Missiles

China has developed long-range, supersonic anti-ship missiles such as the DF-21D and DF-26, which are capable of striking targets at distances of up to 1,500 and 2,500 km respectively. China has also developed the YJ-12, an anti-ship missile that can be launched from land, ships, and aircraft and is capable of flying at low altitude to evade radar detection.

Another recent development is the Type 022 fast attack missile boat which is equipped with YJ-83 anti-ship missiles. Also, the development of the H-6N bomber that can carry CJ-20 air-launched cruise missiles with a range of about 2,500 km, capable of striking ships and land-based targets.

Amphibious Ships

China’s current amphibious ships include the Type 071 and Type 072III classes of landing platform docks (LPDs) and the Type 073 and Type 074 classes of landing ship tanks (LSTs) with a variety of capabilities.

China is also developing the Type 075 class of amphibious assault ships, which are larger than current ships and are expected to have a greater amphibious assault capabilities, including the ability to carry more landing craft and aircraft, as well as being equipped with a well-deck and a flight deck.

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Rivalry in the Indian Ocean

READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochment Between India and China—Part 2)

The map alongside shows the major sea routes between East and West and the choke points on the Sea Lanes of Communications. India, with its unique peninsular shape jutting into the Indian Ocean makes it the biggest player in the Indian Ocean Region.

The Indian Ocean Region stands out for its economic potential and riches, as follows:

•   28 states (21 are members of the IOR Assn)

•   17.5% of global land area

•   35.0% of the world’s total population (2.6 bn of which 1.3 bn Indian)

•   16.8% of all oil reserves

•   27.9% of all natural gas reserves

•   35.5% of global iron production

•   17.8% of world gold production

•   28% of global fish capture

•   Major sea routes connecting East and West

•   50% of world’s sea-borne oil

•   23 of the world’s top 100 container ports

China seems to be on its way to building a global alliance system of its own.  China aspires to equal and eventually surpass America.

It is well known that China has increased strategic engagement and military exchanges with Russia, Pakistan, and Iran.

Next are South-east Asian nations including Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, and Laos as well as states further afield such as Egypt and Brazil.

However, China has a formal mutual defence treaty only with North Korea. Pakistan is like a client state. Compared to China, US alliances involve mutual defence clauses, extensive troop-basing agreements, and joint military capabilities.

Many friendly countries also fear China’s rise. There is a trust deficit. Except Russia, most have deepened ties with China primarily for economic reasons including New Zealand.

From Brown to Blue Waters

The establishment of a naval logistics facility in Djibouti in 2017 was justified by the Chinese government claiming that it will support peacekeeping operations, the protection of overseas citizens, anti-piracy operations, and protection of regional BRI-related investments.

The PLAN commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in 2012, its second and third aircraft carriers are afloat. Since then it has deployed Type 55 guided-missile cruisers, Type 52C/D destroyers and Type 54A frigates for anti-piracy operations.

It is also expanding its fleet of replenishment and auxiliary vessels, including oilers, salvage and rescue ships, hospital ships, and transport vessels.

China has increased its military-related engagements with countries in the IOR. Its aggregate number of outbound naval port calls and international military exercises began rising dramatically in 2013.

Both conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have undertaken patrols in the Indian Ocean and made port calls at friendly countries.’

Chinese Navy Buildup

The Chinese have other priorities such as Taiwan and Japan before they can come to Indian Ocean. And if they try to deploy a carrier, India is capable enough to handle them.

Nevertheless, China has been constructing aircraft carriers at a fast pace with a projected plan to operate 10 carriers by 2050. At present their third and most advanced aircraft carrier is being built with the first one, Liaoning, being commissioned in 2012 and second, Shandong, in 2019.

Similarly, Currently, PLANSF operates a fleet of 66 submarines which include nuclear as well as conventional submarines. 7 Ballistic missiles submarines are in service (8 more are planned).

Future Prospects

So, Can China and India come to an understanding on the territorial disputes between them?

Will India and China accommodate each other’s spheres of interest and spheres of influence?

Finally, Can India and China get along in the future?

When it comes to territorial claims, the problem with China is that it conjures up the boundaries of the Qing Dynasty to show all of Tibet, parts of J&K and Arunachal Pradesh. But that is the Chinese version of history and Chinese maps.

However,  findings of a project report presented on 23 Jun 2022 at the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China conclude that Tibet was never a part of China before the People’s Republic of China (PRC) invaded it in 1950. Maps from the Ming and Qing dynasties were presented to prove that Tibet was never part of a Chinese empire.

On the question of territorial disputes, the first requirement is to restore the status quo ante on April 2020. India has been consistently maintaining that peace and tranquillity along the LAC were key for the overall development of the bilateral ties.

India and China have held 15 rounds of military talks so far to resolve the eastern Ladakh row. As a result of the talks, the two sides completed the disengagement process last year on the north and south banks of the Pangong lake and in the Gogra area.

In September 2022, before the SCO summit in Samarkand on 16 September 2022, both sides agreed to further disengagement.

Each side currently has around 50,000 to 60,000 troops along the LAC in the sensitive sector.

China seems to be exploring a new India strategy that rests on exhibiting its strength advantage (by normalizing border conflicts like the Galwan Valley clash) alongside tactical cooperation (by ensuring that there isn’t a complete breakdown in bilateral ties and keeping the door open for working together when it is in Chinese interest).

At the same time, escalation of tensions or a full-scale conflict is carefully averted so that the United States, whom China considers its principal adversary, does not get to reap a benefit from the situation.

It must be noted that since 1962, the Indian Army is deployed on the Chinese borders vary of any land grab by the Chinese as happened in Sumdorong in 1986. Despite 22 rounds of talks between the SRs no progress worth its name has been made in resolving the territorial disputes.

In the Western Sector, ie, Aksai Chin, the Chinese have made the Sinkiang highway and have planned another one. All creeping forward actions in Ladakh are to protect the new highway from Indian threats. They are unlikely to give up their claims in this area at all.

China is in possession of the Shaksgam Valley ceded illegally by Pakistan to China in 1963. This was also done at China’s request to give depth and for the security of the Karakoram highway.

In fact, the Chinese would like to destroy the road infrastructure and the landing strips made close to the LAC in Ladakh to deny it to Indian forces.

In Southern Ladakh, the Pangong Tso area provides avenues for the Chinese advance to Leh. For tactical reasons, the Chinese will never agree to give up their claims in that area.

In the Eastern Sector, China claims the whole of Arunachal province as Southern Tibet. They have never recognised the McMahon Line as the border between India and Tibet. But indications have been given that they could be amenable to a trade off based on settled populations. It remains to be seen what they mean by settled populations since when residents of Arunachal apply for visas to visit China they issue them on separate paper slips and not on their Indian passports claiming that residents of Arunachal are citizens of China.

Expanding the scope of China’s interests further, Beijing’s Western Development Strategy, its BRI or Two Oceans Strategy, that is, China’s own version of Indo-Pacific, aimed at connecting the Pacific and Indian Ocean economies under Chinese leadership and opening up a dedicated Indian Ocean exit for China, rests heavily on India.

India’s cooperation can secure Chinese gains of vital geopolitical and economic consequences, and its non-cooperation can pose the biggest hurdle to China’s South Asia strategy and advancement of its Indian Ocean footprints.

But to solicit this Indian cooperation, China is unwilling to pay a strategic cost or make any real tradeoff, such as accommodating India’s concerns or aspirations on the disputed border or South Asia or concerning its membership of international organizations.

Deep down, China recognizes India as a key threat that can intercept its energy lifelines, has the potential to replace it in global supply chains, and can compete with China in various international bodies, thereby challenging China’s ability to achieve an “overwhelming power advantage in Asia.”

China may well ask, “What if India manages to get these concessions from China, but still chooses to cooperate with the United States?”

India’s membership of the QUAD, with its political, military, and economic implications also makes China vary of India.

India will never approve of China’s BRI initiative since it has become clear that the real purpose is to help China gain access to strategic infrastructure and potential bases in India’s neighbourhood.

India’s Options

India would do well to come to terms with and perhaps leverage its increasing strategic value to China.

By taking a leaf out of China’s own playbook and consistently emphasizing India’s fundamental and growing importance in influencing Chinese strategic outcomes Indian policymakers can potentially extract greater concessions and conciliation.

The Tibetan govt-in-exile, the Dalai Lama’s succession, Taiwan, QUAD, BRI, its naval power projection in the South China Sea, its leadership role in global organisations, US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) (aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative in low and middle-income countries), India’s own growing bilateral relations and relevance with Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Iran, SAARC countries and the clout offered by a growing economy and market size are levers that India can use against China.

India must also consider the following steps to dissuade China from precipitating problems for India: –

• Improvement in geopolitical, cultural. and military relationships with BIMSTEC and other Countries in IOR.

• Make tangible investments in the countries in IOR,  for strengthening their infrastructure and meet their military needs, to mitigate their overdependence on China.

• Appreciate the importance of India’s relationship with Russia and initiate measures to reassure Russia to fortify that relationship.

• Upgrade capabilities of its defence forces and Coastguard on priority.

Conclusion

My conclusion is that:

The on-going Sino-Indian border crisis has revealed that China has little respect for India’s long-standing efforts to freeze the status quo along the two countries’ disputed frontiers or for New Delhi’s cautious efforts to avoid the appearance of balancing against Beijing.

Rather, it has chosen to expand its control over new parts of the Himalayan borderlands through brazen actions that confront India with the difficult choice of either lumping its losses or escalating through force, if the negotiations presently under way yield meagre returns.

It has forced India to join the rest of Asia in figuring out how to deal with the newest turn in China’s salami-slicing tactics, which now distinctively mark its trajectory as a rising power.

Over the centuries China looked up to Buddhist India. A millennium later, India held Imperial China in great regard. Today, China does not see India as a fellow great power. From a position of strength China does not see the need to accommodate India.

The opposite applies to India. From a position of weakness India feels it cannot afford to accommodate China without loss of standing and strategic autonomy.

Compared to the enormous disparities in economic strength, India and China are not as far apart in military strength. Given the stopping power of the Himalaya and the maritime distances, the imbalance is less daunting.

There will be more Ladakhs. China is likely to be more aggressive on Arunachal Pradesh, which is strategically more important because it’s rich in resources.

China’s comprehensive national power is about seven times that of India. Until India substantially closes the power gap, there’s little prospect of a lasting rapprochement.

READ ALSO: Can There Be Rapprochment Between India and China—Part 2)

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The aircraft carrier named Fujian was launched at a brief ceremony held at Shanghai’s Jiangnan Shipyard, the official media reported from the eastern metropolis. Fujian is the name of China’s eastern coastal province of Fujian.

The Fujian is China’s first domestically designed and built catapult aircraft carrier, Xinhua news agency reported.

The launch was delayed by two months due to the COVID lockdown of Shanghai. It was due to be launched on April 23 around the 73rd anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

The third aircraft carrier built by China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited has a displacement of more than 80,000 tonnes and is equipped with electromagnetic catapults and arresting devices.

China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was a refit of the Soviet-era ship commissioned in 2012, followed by the indigenously built 2nd aircraft carrier Shandong in 2019.

China plans to have around five aircraft carriers, according to the official media.

The next aircraft carrier China plans to build is expected to be nuclear-powered.

The Fujian was launched at a short but festive ceremony where the naming certificate of the vessel was given to the top officer receiving the delivery of the aircraft carrier.

The Fujian, which is the “first fully domestically developed and constructed” aircraft carrier with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), has a flat, straight flight deck and arresting device.

It has a full displacement of more than 80,000 tonnes, as much as 20,000 tonnes more than the other two aircraft carriers.

EMALS was regarded by Indian naval experts as a major leap forward by the Chinese navy as currently, only the US has such an advanced one.

It is more energy-efficient and reduces maintenance. It is also used on the US Navy’s Gerald R. Ford-class carriers.

China’s other two aircraft carriers, which are equipped with ski-jump take-off ramps, the Fujian features a flat-top flight deck.

The Type 003 warship with a hull number of 18 is the first carrier in China’s fleet to use an electromagnetic catapult to launch planes from the deck, which is faster than the older steam catapult system.

But the J-15 aircraft which China currently operates for its aircraft carriers were regarded a major problem for the PLAN as each plane weighed about 18 tonnes, too heavy for carriers in the long run. The planes were considered to be a big drag.

However, the launch of Fujian was expected to provide more room for China to operate in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits which have strategic significance for China where it is pitted against periodic US naval incursions, including the aircraft carriers.

Experts say the fast-paced construction of aircraft carriers by China has strategic significance for India too.

The launch of Fujian could provide leeway for PLAN to step out of the region and head to India’s backyard, the Indian Ocean, where the Indian Navy has a sizable presence.

China has already expanded its naval base at Djibouti in the horn of Africa to berth aircraft carriers.

China has also acquired the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka as a debt swap for 99 years. It is also modernising Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.

Naval experts say Fujian may take some time for operationalisation. Perhaps PLAN may begin sending aircraft carriers to the Indian Ocean by 2025.

In a major rejig of its military doctrine, China since 2013 stepped up the development of the navy with a massive budget while cutting down the number of army troops.

The modernisation included building several aircraft carriers besides submarines, frigates and assault ships as part of its efforts to expand its global influence.

According to one estimate, China is building almost a naval ship a month.

However, recent reports said the speedy launch of the aircraft carriers is resulting in technical issues and repairs delaying their operational readiness.

China’s indigenously built 2nd aircraft carrier Shandong, which was launched in 2019, had to undergo in April its first maintenance and comprehensive examination.

China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, a refit of the Soviet-era ship which was commissioned in 2012, is so far the only Chinese aircraft carrier with initial operational capability or the basic level of combat readiness.

China’s naval buildup comes amid growing geopolitical tensions with the US, which under President Joe Biden is seeking to strengthen ties with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region to counter Beijing’s growing economic influence and military might.

Fujian, in the southeast, is the closest province to Taiwan, a self-ruling province that China says must be reunified with the mainland, even by force.

For the time being, China’s aircraft carriers may provide strategic heft for China in the disputed South China Sea where it is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes.

Beijing has built up and militarised many of the islands and reefs it controls in the region. Both areas are stated to be rich in minerals, oil and other natural resources and are vital to global trade.

China claims almost all of the South China Sea. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims over the area.

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Images obtained by Reuters from private satellite imagery provider Planet Labs and others circulating on social media show the submarine in a dry dock in Huludao Port in Liaoning province.

Greenish covers shroud areas behind its superstructure and stern – parts of the vessel that could house missile launch tubes and a new, quieter propulsion system, analysts said. Such clear images of submarines in dry dock are seldom seen.

The submarine was out of the water between April 24 and May 4, and was later seen mostly submerged in the same place after the dry dock was flooded.

Singapore-based security scholar Collin Koh said there was a great deal of interest in the prospect of a new class of Chinese Type 093 “hunter-killer” submarine with vertical launch tubes for guided missiles. But he said the recent satellite images were too limited to definitively identify the vessel.

The images “are very interesting but it is still very hard to be sure yet whether we are looking at some kind of refit for testing or a whole new class of submarine,” said Collin Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Collin Koh said he and others were watching closely to see whether new Chinese submarines would shift to quieter pump-jets instead of conventional propellers for propulsion. Because the stern is shrouded, it is not possible to tell what sort of propulsion the ship in the image uses.

Vertical launch tubes would add considerable flexibility to China’s “hunter killer” submarine fleet, arming the vessels with more guided missiles.

The Chinese Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

China’s attack submarines are evolving to tackle a growing range of potential demands, from protecting ballistic missile submarines and the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s aircraft carrier battlegroups to tracking enemy ships.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor in arms control at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said the latest images raised more questions than answers as to whether they revealed a new class of vessel.

“It’s plausible, but there are questions I’d want answered. It wasn’t in dry dock very long and it is unclear how they may have reconfigured this submarine,” he said. “Given the Pentagon report, there is certainly a lot of interest.”

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