In the case of India, there are strong projections for the Prime Minister Modi to occupy the office again. In India, the general elections are scheduled to be conducted in several phases between 19 April-1 June, 2024. Due to the enormity of the voter population, India’s elections will be held in phases to ensure 970 million voters can cast their votes in a secure environment. In India, Prime Minister Modi is seeking a successive third term. The opposition coalition, INDI alliance, has faced significant turmoil even before it could take off. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party attempted the Bharat jodo yatra, he is able to gather crowds but failed to project himself as a strong prime minister candidate. On the other hand, the incumbent prime minister with the country-wide infrastructure development, scientific advancements, economic restructuring with social development programs, is most likely assured victory in the elections.

The US is due for presidential elections in November 2024. In the US, it is a lengthy stretched process, over a period of two years, with several rounds of debates and elections, even within the parties themselves, for the selection of the presidential candidate. Towards the 2024 elections, after the Super Tuesday, President Trump has emerged as the Republican candidate, and President Biden is a leading Democrat candidate for the upcoming Presidential elections. Nonetheless, no matter who occupies the office in the US, its relationship with India stands on a solid foundation, and there has been bipartisan support for India.

There are several factors, over couple of decades, that catapulted the current momentum for a multidimensional strategic partnership.

Shifting of Nuclear Goal Posts

The upward swing in the US-India relations can be traced to the Clinton administration. Especially, to the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh talkathon, fourteen rounds of talks between 1998-2000, launched in the immediate aftermath of India’s nuclear tests and the resultant sanctions. This unprecedented dialogue led to mutual understanding of the geopolitical concerns of India along with the circumstances caused the “shifting of the nuclear goal posts”. Prior to the talks, Clinton was adamant on India to ‘Cap, rollback and eliminate.’ Later, in 1999, during the Kargil War, he came forth in outright support of India against Pakistan. This was in “stark contrast to the 1971 war, when Washington had situated its nuclear submarines in support of Pakistan.”

Subsequently, in March 2000, Clinton during his state visit and addressing India’s Parliament, affirmed that, “I say this with great respect. Only India can determine its interests.” His visit marked the first visit of a US President in 17 years and “institutionalized a high-level, multi-tiered and multi-faceted dialogue with India.”

Nuclear Agreement

His successor President Bush confronted with the post 9-11 challenges, recognized the dire urgency to engage India in the global counterterrorism and nonproliferation efforts. Bush coined the term ‘Strategic Partnership,’ with India, based on reciprocal obligations to deal with the “multitudinous and complex threats of the post 9/11 world.” Viewed narrowly, in the Cold War perspective, the strategic partnership was mistaken as an alliance to maintain the Asian geopolitical balance of power, specifically directed against China. On the contrary, the Bush Administration wanted to enlist India’s support at a global level for the shaping of the future world order.

Alongside, the landmark US-India collaborative measures, the High Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG) and the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) overcame the nuclear disjuncture, hitherto plaguing the US-India relationship. This enabled the Bush Administration to uproot the nuclear barriers, and the offer of the civilian nuclear technologies based on reciprocal obligations. This helped US-India overcome decades of nuclear estrangement and launch partnership based on strategic interests. In 2010, Obama supported India’s seat in the UNSC as a permanent member recognizing it as ‘indispensable’ partner for the coming century.” Over successive administrations, this created space for the US-India relationship to emerge as “one of equal partners and equal strategic interest.” Thus, in the last couple of decades, this change in approach towards India, can be greatly attributed to the change in Washington’s approach to restructure its own security framework- from region focused to global level.

Modi Factor

This restructuring aligns with Modi’s approach to (re)launch India at the global level to be recognized as a global stakeholder. Towards this, Modi based on his diplomatic craftsmanship with two Democrat and a Republican Presidents, yet three different personas (from Obama to Trump and now, Biden) ignited multi-sectoral comprehensive strategic partnership.

Initially, the Obama Administration seemed to be proceeding cautiously with the so-called Hindu nationalist Modi regime. However, subsequently, in an unprecedented move, recognized India as a “Major Defense Partner.” In 2016, Obama and Modi signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), that allowed the militaries of both countries to use each other’s facilities for refueling and strategic coordination. Especially for India, it was a significant development, as it enhanced India’s maritime prowess and navigation in Indian Ocean, for humanitarian and strategic purposes.

READ MORE : India-US : India, US Set to Deepen Strategic Relationship

In fact, the successive administration, headed by Trump, a Republican, exhibited ‘bromance’ with Modi. This was evident in the Howdy Modi event (Sept 2019), at the NRG stadium (Houston), a joint gathering of diverse groups of officials, businesses, along with gathering of 50,000 Indian diaspora. On the one hand, Trump focused on economic gains, removed India from special trade status from the preferential trade, called the Generalized System of Preferences. Yet, on the other hand, there was significant defense cooperation agreements along with the launching of the Tiger Triumph exercises with New Delhi. The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) agreement granted India access to the advanced communication technology and real time information sharing between the US and India defense agencies. Similarly, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) enabled geospatial information sharing, critical for India to navigate the maritime domain, marks significant strategic cooperation.

Thus, during 2016-2020, the LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA sealed the foundational core for the US-India strategic defense partnership enabling India to obtain critical advanced technologies to strengthen its defense communications, navigation and targeting capabilities.

Modi-Biden

In 2020, with the onset of the Biden Presidency, there were speculations that the ‘bromance’ between US-India would be elusive. Nevertheless, the Biden Administration, moving beyond the narrow geopolitical confines, launched multi-sectoral cooperation with India. Probably because Biden, as former US Secretary of State during the Obama Administration, was aware of the necessity to harness India’s engagement in Washington’s global security framework, beyond the confines of South Asia. This aligned with the India’s strategic vision under the Modi regime as well, as evident in intense collaboration in the varied sectors – ranging from defence (joint production of F414 jet engines), critical emerging technology (iCET,) space exploration (NISAR), cyberspace, semiconductor supply chain, AI and quantum technologies, and 5G/6G telecommunications. Modi and Biden, besides their intense bilateral dialogue, have proactively engaged in multiple triangular and multilateral fora, such as the QUAD, I2U2, G20, etc.

‘Strategic Convergence’ beyond China

Currently, there is a persistent hyper-linkage with the ‘counter-China’ factor. Regardless to say, India’s and the US apprehensions of China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean have contributed to the “strategic convergence” and the urgency “to counter China in the Indo-Pacific Region.” This is visible in the revival of the QUAD, and other Indo-Pacific arrangements. Yet, it is not restricted to this factor alone. Modi is focused on establishing India’s military prowess as well as strategic positioning. This may deter China from military overtures, yet, India will be ready to successfully thwart such attempts, in case the situation arises.

US is clearly aware that India under Modi’s astute leadership, a strong India will handle the China challenge. So, definitely there is a ‘strategic convergence’ of interests, but, this is not a conditional relationship, nor exclusively setting up India to counter China. As Washington is aware that New Delhi will uphold its strategic autonomy and not take dictates regarding its foreign or domestic issues.

It is crucial to overcome the persistent China ‘hangover.’ China is a lingering challenge to both India and the US, but to view their relationship in the narrow confines of the China factor is erroneous. Rather the engagement of India should be viewed as an attempt by Washington to restructuring its foreign and security policy at the global level. Especially, in view of the growing focus on the strategic issues related to Indo-Pacific or the entire Indian Ocean region (covering the Middle East) as well as non-military challenges related to climate change, health, quantum computing, space, clean energy, AI and so on.

READ MORE: Support building in US think tanks against sanctioning India

Due to intense dialogue, since 1998, both official and informal (including policy community, Indian diaspora etc.) there is a greater multi-level, multi-dimensional sense of security partnership established between the two countries. This is the reason that regardless of the occupants of the political office, this symbiotic relationship will strengthen. There is possibility that at times, some issue(s) may emerge to create concerns regarding the internal or external issues related to India. For instance, US representatives expressed concerns on the alleged attacks on the Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, and the recent arrest of the Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal. There may be several reasons for the concerns being raised by Washington. India has handled these charges effectively.

However, besides political relations, multiple channels of communication and dialogue have been established that there may be some wavering but it will be difficult to derail the momentum. Moreover, the US recognizes India’s strategic autonomy and has on several occasions has recognized India’s exceptional stand on certain issues. For example, in 2014, the Obama Administration had categorically warned countries to prohibit trade with Iran. Yet, US realized India’s reliance on oil import from Iran was crucial for the latter’s energy security and simply advised to adhere to global obligations as well.

Thus, to conclude, India-US is a dynamic multidimensional strategic partnership, in several vital areas of defence, space, climate change, critical technologies. Regardless of the incumbents’ post 2024 elections, the US-India relations will forge ahead. As President Biden enthusiastically acknowledged that the US-India relationship, “is among the most consequential in the world, that is stronger, closer, and more dynamic than any time in history.”

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US on 22-25 September 2021 was significant for a number of reasons. His delegation includes External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Shringla among others.
Ahead of US visit, Modi said his visit to the United States would be an occasion to strengthen the Indo-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and consolidate ties with Japan and Australia. He said in his address to the United Nations General Assembly he would focus on the pressing global challenges including the Covid-19 pandemic, the need to combat terrorism, climate change, and other important issues. At a media briefing ahead of the prime minister’s visit, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla had said the developments in Afghanistan would be extensively discussed in the bilateral talks between Modi and Biden and the Indian side would convey that Washington needed to continue focus on that country.

Prime Minister’s Engagements

23 September

• Modi met US Vice-President Kamala Harris.
• The prime minister met one-on-one with five chief executives of top American companies – Heads of Qualcomm, Adobe, First Solar, General Atomics and Blackstone.
• Modi had bilateral meetings with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

24 September
*Modi participated in the first in-person summit of the Quad in Washington and had an important bilateral meeting with US President Joe Biden.

25 September
*Modi attended the UN General Assembly in New York and addressed the General Debate of the High-Level Segment of the 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
*Meeting With Joe Biden
The meeting with Joe Biden was the first in-person meeting between the two leaders after Biden became President in January.
*Biden and Modi discussed the current regional security situation following the recent developments in Afghanistan and a number of other issues. The need to “stem radicalism, extremism, cross-border terrorism and dismantling of global terrorist network”, also featured in the PM Modi-Biden talks.

Other issues on the agenda discussed with President Joe Biden were as follows:
• The Afghan crisis and its implications
• China’s growing assertiveness
• Ways to stem radicalism and cross-border terrorism
• Expansion of the India-US global partnership
• How to bolster bilateral trade and investment ties
• Strengthen defence and security collaboration
• Boost the Strategic Clean Energy Partnership
• Explore new avenues and emerging technologies, including R&D, innovation and industry linkages

Quad Summit

PM Modi also attended the first in-person Quad summit hosted by the US President. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga also attended the summit. This was Modi’s first in-person meeting with Mr Suga after the latter took over the reins from Shinzo Abe in September last year.
The Quad summit aims to boost cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region amid China’s growing dominance in the area. The Quad countries – Australia, India, Japan and the US – announced a new working group on space, a supply chain initiative and a 5G deployment and diversification effort apart from discussing issues like challenges in the Indo Pacific, climate change and COVID-19 pandemic.

For the US, the Quad meeting marked another step to reviving an American focus on diplomatic efforts, following its dramatic exit from the 20-year Afghanistan war.
Of the three regional groupings that Washington leads in its strategic chess game to manage China’s ascent, the Quad is deliberately the most open. The other two are the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance, comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States, and the newest arrival on the block – AUKUS.

Meeting with Kamala Harris

During his first meeting with US Vice President Kamala Harris, Modi latter brought up Pakistan’s role in terrorism and asked Islamabad to take action so it does not impact America and India’s security.
Modi and Harris had earlier spoken on the telephone in June this year. Harris had offered to prioritise India, in making US vaccines available in the wake of the Covid situation at that time in India.

Address to UN General Assembly

PM Modi will conclude the US visit with an address at the United Nations General Assembly, focusing on global challenges including the pandemic, the need to combat terrorism, climate change and other important issues.

India – US Issues

India and the US are close partners and share an economic and military relationship. Bilateral trade was $88.75 billion (Rs 6.5 lakh crore) in 2019-20, and the stated goal is of taking it to $500 billion (Rs 36.9 lakh crore) over the current decade. A new trade deal between the two countries is off the table but there are other areas of mutual convergence.

1. Defence. Since being designated a ‘major defence partner’ by the US in 2016, India has been able to access cutting-edge US military technology. Both countries conduct more military exercises with each other than with any other country. Over the past 15 years, India has bought arms worth $22 billion (Rs 1.6 lakh crore) from the US and is negotiating a fresh batch of defence deals worth approximately $10 billion (Rs 73,825 crore). The new deals include those for 30 MQ-9B Predator drones, worth approximately $3 billion (Rs 22,147 crore), additional C-130J transport aircraft and NASAMS-II air defence missile systems. India wants this relationship to move into the realm of joint development and to include more cutting-edge prowess in the field of stealth technologies, jet fighter engines and nuclear propulsion reactor technology.
3. Terrorism and Afghanistan. Since the swift takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban and the shocking collapse of the earlier Democratic Republic of Afghanistan and its US-trained and equipped military, both India and the US have common concerns about Afghanistan becoming a hub of terrorism, with terrorists operating out of safe havens there to target the world outside, as it was during the previous Taliban rule between 1996 and 2001. A shared concern is intelligence cooperation after the US pullout to warn of possible terror threats. The immediate issue at hand is the push by the Taliban to gain global legitimacy, including claiming its seat at the United Nations. The US aims to exert leverage on the Islamist group using what Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month was a “range of tools”.
4. Climate Change. The two countries this year launched a new high-level team-up—the ‘US-India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership’. The partnership envisages bilateral cooperation to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this long-term goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate-neutral world by mid-century.
6. The US has set an economy-wide target of reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030. As part of its climate mitigation efforts, India has set a target of installing 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030. The two countries are to collaborate on this 2030 agenda for clean technologies and climate action. The first announcement in this direction was made in New Delhi when Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry travelled to launch the initiative in April 2021.
7. Free and open Indo-Pacific. China’s rise as a military power has sparked global anxiety and uncertainty, particularly with regard to the South China Sea that Beijing has militarised and claims as its territorial waters. Over $5 trillion (Rs 7.3 lakh crore) worth of trade, which is over 60 per cent of the global maritime trade, passes through the South China Sea. An immediate response to China’s belligerence has been the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, in March this year. The Quad countries—US, India, Australia and Japan—are to hold their first in-person meeting at the White House this week after a virtual summit last year. India and the US have reiterate their commitment to a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’—a region comprising the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean and including the South China Sea.
9. Vaccine Exports. In April, India halted vaccine exports after it was hit by a crippling second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic but resumed them from October. Indian manufacturers source raw materials, such as sterile filters and disposable bags for cell culture, used in vaccine production from the US. At a global Covid-19 summit on September 22, PM Modi emphasised that India would be stepping up vaccine production. He said India wants the vaccine raw material supply chains to be kept open so that it could step up vaccine production and resume exports to other countries. Global vaccine supply, particularly to the poorer countries, remains a huge bottleneck. The World Health Organization (WHO) has flagged vaccine inequity wherein a majority of the over 5 billion vaccines have been administered by the rich nations and the poorer countries were left to fend for themselves. President Biden has committed to donating 1.1 billion vaccine doses to the poorer countries, especially those in Africa. This is another area of collaboration between the two countries.

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