The photos from January by satellite imagery firm Maxar Technologies reveal renewed levels of construction activity on Great Coco Island.

In an article published by Chatham House, an independent policy institute headquartered in London, satellite imagery expert Damien Symon, who goes by his Twitter handle @detresfa_, and foreign affairs and security issues expert John Pollock wrote that visible are two new hangars, a new causeway and what appears to be an accommodation bloc — all of which are visible in proximity to a freshly lengthened 2,300-metre runway and radar station.

Visible as of late March on the southern tip of Great Coco, just beyond the causeway connecting the islands, is evidence of land clearing efforts indicating construction work to come, the article said.

Great Coco Island, the largest in an isolated archipelago that lies just 55 km north of Andaman and Nicobar Islands — the home to India’s first tri-service command — has been rumoured to have Chinese presence over the last two decades at least.

Sources in the Indian defence establishment told ThePrint that the Chinese have always been suspected of having an intelligence set up on the island with the use of specialised radars and listening points which allegedly went for an upgrade last year and are capable of tracking India’s defence activities, including missile testing.

While India maintains a working relationship with Myanmar, China’s sway has increased with the military junta there taking control back from the civilian government.

Beijing has invested heavily in the country through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor to access Indian Ocean sea lanes as a way to bypass the Strait of Malacca — a critical sea lane for shipping destined for China’s east coast.

Growing evidence suggests Myanmar’s military coup has increased Beijing’s influence in the country. With Myanmar’s armed forces struggling to control large swaths of the country and with the economy in freefall, China seems to be shoring up the regime and protecting its investments for now.

“Chinese companies are believed to be operating on the ground, building major infrastructure projects such as deep-water ports, while the junta is allocating the few troops it has left to protect them,” the article said.

It added that India may soon face a new airbase close by in a country increasingly tied to Beijing.

The militarisation of the Coco Islands by the Tatmadaw (armed forces), combined with the wider Chinese developments occurring inland, could pose a significant security challenge to India and its navy.

Chinese commercial shipping could soon bypass the strait and offload their cargo in Myanmar, nullifying India’s advantage, the article said.

“There is another concern. If China were to further apply pressure to the Tatmadaw, leveraging naval intelligence acquired from surveillance flights from Great Coco for desperately needed economic investment, it would give Beijing a key regional advantage over New Delhi,’ it added.

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UMS Minye Kyaw Htin is the second submarine to join the Myanmar Navy fleet following the commissioning of former Indian Navy Kilo-class submarine INS Sindhuvir last year. It is named after the King of the Toungoo dynasty, who reigned from 1673 to 1698.

According to the official PR website of the Myanmar military:

Chairman of the State Administration Council of Republic of Union of Myanmar and Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was attends the commissioning ceremony of new warships, include UMS Minye Kyaw Htin (72), the former chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s Type 035 ‘Ming’-class submarine; UMS Inwa (53), the Inlay-class Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV); two of 18m Riverine Fast Attack Crafts and four of 20m Riverine Patrol Boats on 24 December 2021, 74th Anniversary of the Myanmar Navy.

About Type 35 Ming-class submarines

Commissioning ceremony of Type 035B submarine UMS Minye Kyaw Htin
According to “World Submarines Recognition Guide”, the Chinese Ming-class diesel-eclectic attack submarine was built in four variants over 25 years beginning in 1974. The Type 035B variant which just joined the Myanmar fleet is equipped to fire missiles from its torpedo tubes. Bangladesh is an existing customer of the class, having procured two Type 035G for $203 million. Both were delivered in 2016.

Type 035 main specifications

Displacement: 2,100 tons (submerged)
Length: 76 meters
Beam: 7.6 meters
Speed: 18 knots submerged
Operating depth: 300 meters
Propulsion: 2x Type E390ZC-1 diesels (5,200 hp each), two shafts
Complement: 57 sailors
Weapons: 8x 533 torpedo tubes (6x forward; 2x aft) for 16 torpedoes or 32 mines

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HI Sutton, a well-known specialist in submarine affairs, tweeted that this is a Type-035 submarine of the Ming class. At the same time, in another video from Myanmar, it is seen that for the protection of this submarine, the Navy of Myanmar had also sent one of its warships back and forth. It is believed that like India, China may have given this submarine to Myanmar or Dragon wants to sell its submarine to the Myanmar Navy through this.

Chinese submarine seen entering the country’s Yangon river
Recently, India gifted its one kilo class second hand submarine to the Navy of Myanmar. China’s Ming class submarine is not as powerful as compared to Kilo but can be very beneficial for Myanmar’s Navy. At the same time, a user named mehmlwinsoe shared the Tiktok video of Myanmar and told that this Chinese submarine has been seen entering the country’s Yangon River.

The growing closeness between the army of Myanmar and China can be a matter of concern for India. Recently, the Foreign Secretary of India has returned from a visit to Myanmar and he has asked the military government to crack down on the extremists of the Northeast. In fact, Myanmar’s army, which is crushing democracy supporters at gunpoint, has also stabbed India in the back.
Myanmar’s army has allowed insurgents operating in Northeast India to set up camp in their area. These insurgents are taking training in Myanmar and carrying out bloody attacks in Manipur and Nagaland with the help of Chinese weapons.

Extremists are attacking people of pro-democracy forces
In return, extremist organizations operating in Northeast India are attacking people of the pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces in Myanmar to help the army. India has given from war weapons to humanitarian aid to the Myanmar army. Even after this favor, the Myanmar army is helping the militants of the Northeast. According to the Asia Times report, when militant groups carried out a bloody attack in Manipur on November 13, India’s once soft and sometimes warm relations with Myanmar once again boiled over. Seven people including an officer of the Assam Rifles were killed in this attack. This includes the officer’s wife and a 6-year-old child.

It is easy for extremists to flee to Myanmar by attacking India.
This attack on the Assam Rifles was carried out jointly by the militants of the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur and the Manipur Naga People’s Front. The camps of both these groups are present within the border of neighboring Myanmar and reports are pointing to the fact that the militants fled to the Myanmar border after carrying out the attack. India has a 1600 km long border with Myanmar. This range is filled with many hilly and inaccessible areas. This makes it easy for militants to flee to Myanmar after attacking India.

Insurgents from Naga, Manipuri and Assam have been maintaining their base in the Sagaing area of ​​Myanmar for the past several years. From this they attack in India and then run back. These camps have been the subject of dispute between India and Myanmar for a long time, but in January 2019, when the Myanmar army took action on the camp of the rebels, it was believed that there has been a change in its policies. The Myanmar army carried out a clean-up operation in the self-styled capital of Naga, Manipuri and Assam rebels, Taga. This improved relations between Myanmar and India.

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All these camps were evacuated in 2019 after a joint operation by the armies of India and Myanmar and terrorist activities had stopped there. After the occupation of the army here, these camps have become active again in the last few months. According to intelligence sources, the activities of terrorist organizations PLA and RPF have increased in the Chin State of Myanmar. Their number is said to be around 18-20 and their presence is from Senam to Sialmi adjacent to the border.

According to information received by Indian agencies, these terrorists were involved in the killing of Colonel Biplab Tripathi, the commanding officer of the 46th Assam Rifles, his wife and son, besides 4 other soldiers on the Manipur border last month. After that incident, all of them entered the Myanmar border in search of a safe haven and are still hiding in the forests near Sialmi.

According to intelligence sources, 150 terrorists of UNLF, PLA and PREPAK have been brought to the villages of Chin State so that they can be infiltrated into India. Similarly, dozens of NSCN(KYA) terrorists have become active in Tirap and Changlang districts that have recently infiltrated from Myanmar.

The sources claim that 30-40 terrorists of different terrorist gangs are trying to infiltrate Manipur. It is feared that in the coming days, there may be a major terrorist incident in Manipur as well as Nagaland.

Earlier this year, the Indian Army, along with the Myanmar Army, took major action against the terrorist gangs that set up a base in Myanmar. In this operation that lasted for several weeks, a large number of terrorist camps were destroyed and terrorists were killed.

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Foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Army chief Gen MM Naravane visited to Myanmar on 5-6 October to engage Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders. The timing of the visit was decided to drill through India’s commitment to the Neighbourhood First policy amid rising tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

What probably influenced both Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Gen MM Naravane most was the spectre of “Paukphaw”, the China-Myanmar friendship that President Xi Jinping had underscored during his state visit in January.

The major outcome of the meeting included a project agreement for the upgrading of agricultural mechanization sub-station, virtual inauguration of the Centre for Excellence in Software Development and Training, Myitkyina and opening of a liaison office in Nay Pyi Taw by Shringla, G20 debt service and quota on pulses.

ALSO READ: Neighbourhood : Indian Interests Hampered by China-Myanmar Pacts

India also announced a grant of $2 million for the construction of the border haat bridge at Byanyu/Sarsichauk to provide increased economic connectivity between Mizoram and Myanmar.

In addition to proposing the construction of a $6 billion petroleum refinery near Yangon, India discussed progress in ongoing infrastructure projects, including the Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the Sittwe port project. It also presented Myanmar with 3,000 vials of the antiviral Remdesivir, symbolic of the support India is extending to Myanmar in its efforts to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sittwe Port

Earlier, during virtual foreign office consultations between the two countries, on 1 October, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said, “With respect to the 69 bridges on the Trilateral Highway, I am happy to inform you that we will soon be moving forward with the tendering process.”

Port at Sittwe and IWT Terminals in Sittwe and Paletwa have been constructed with India’s grant assistance in May 2017 at a cost of about $78 million.

Sittwe is part of India-built mega Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The project when completed, will improve connectivity with Myanmar, by creating a transport corridor for shipment of cargo from the eastern ports of India to Myanmar as well as to the North-Eaastern region of India via Myanmar.

Security Aspects

Shringla and Gen Naravane called on Myanmar’s State Counsellor and de facto Head of Government, Aung San Suu Kyi, on 5 October.  They also had a meeting with Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. During the visit, the foreign secretary and the Army chief conveyed that India was committed to help the Myanmar Army in capacity building apart from enhancing cooperation to address mutual security concerns.    

ALSO READ: China supplying weapons to terror groups in Myanmar  

With several insurgent organizations operating in northeast India having bases in Myanmar, New Delhi has been maintaining close security cooperation with the neighbouring country.     

The two nations in July 2019 inked a pact to step up bilateral defence cooperation.

India is also keen to ink a MoU on Maritime Security Cooperation with Myanmar, apart from starting exchanging data on the movement of commercial and non-military ships in the maritime neighbourhood of the two nations. The Indian Navy has also provided Myanmar Navy one of its submarines.     

Myanmar is also involved in the India-China tangle. It shares a boundary tri-junction at Diphu Pass. Myanmar and China in 1960 demarcated the boundary between the two nations at the tri-junction. New Delhi, however, has not yet accepted it and it remains unsettled, just as the rest of the boundary between India and China.     

Indian Submarine Gifted

India will transfer the Russian-origin Kilo-class Sindhuveer submarine, which will be commissioned by Myanmar as its first-ever submarine to give it the under-water fighting edge against its adversaries in the region.

INS Sindhuvir will be leased out to Myanmar, the only ASEAN country to have both land and maritime borders with India, as part of New Delhi‘s policy to checkmate China‘s strategic inroads into the Indian neighbourhood.

“This is in accordance with our vision of SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region – and also in line with our commitment to build capacities and self reliance in all our neighbouring countries.

The 3,000-tonne India-owned submarine is said to be 31 years old but has undergone regular refits at the Visakhapatnam-based state-run Hindustan Shipyard Limited and at Russia over the years, including adding of modern systems on board.

Myanmar has plans to buy similar Kilo-class submarines from Russia. This Myanmar move gained momentum after its neighbour Bangladesh inducted two Ming-class diesel-electric submarines from China in 2016.

In the run-up to the lease of INS Sindhuvir to Myanmar, the Indian Navy has been training its sailors at its submarine school, INS Satavahana, in Visakhapatnam as well as sending ‘mobile training teams’ to Naypyitaw for the last couple of years.

In 2017, India had supplied torpedoes to the Myanmar Navy. It has also sold sonars and radars to Myanmar in the past for its Kyan Sittha-class frigates.

Military Equipment

India has also supplied military hardware and software to Myanmar, which ranges from Islander maritime patrol aircraft and naval gun-boats to 105 mm light artillery guns, mortars, grenade-launchers and rifles.

Myanmar is also getting some armaments and electronic equipment, including radars manufactured by Bharat Electronics Limited, for its frigates and corvettes. The armies from the two countries have also smashed several insurgent bases and apprehended dozens of militants along their borders under ‘Operation Sunrise’ since January 2019.

During the visit India agreed to provide artillery guns, ammunition for T-72 tanks, radars, sonars and 500 bullet proof jackets to Myanmar’s military.

Insurgency on the Border

The Myanmar Army is conducting stepped-up offensive operations within its territory against Indian insurgent groups like NSCN (Khaplang), ULFA (I) and NDFB (S) as well as Myanmar outfits like Arakan Army and Kachin Independence Army.

Review of Chinese Projects

Suu Kyi’s government is re-assessing some of the infrastructure projects Beijing is keen to bankroll under the proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), apparently out of concerns over debt-trap the Belt-and-Road Initiative.

Nay Pyi Taw is purportedly upset over the continued flow of arms originating in China to the militant organizations in Myanmar. 

Pressed on so many fronts, Myanmar might feel that the future would be better protected if China’s rising influence were to be checked. That might explain reports of New Delhi’s offer of a $6-billion petroleum refinery project and the talks to boost connectivity, power and energy projects, as well as joint efforts to tackle the pandemic.

Comments

The five-month-long stand-off not only took India-China relations to a new low but also brought under focus the competition between the two nations for geopolitical influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

Relations between India and Myanmar have grown over the past decade and India has sought to engage Myanmar’s rulers, military or civilian, in a bid to counter China’s enormous presence in that country. However, its efforts have lacked the energy that characterizes China’s engagement of Myanmar. India’s infrastructure projects are running way behind schedule; the Kaladan project has moved at a snail’s pace. Meanwhile, China’s role in Myanmar’s economy and military has grown by leaps and bounds.

Keeping Myanmar on India’s side is essential to India’s security and territorial sovereignty. The possibility of China ramping up pressure on India by supporting anti-India insurgents in the North-East cannot be ruled out. India will be hoping for Myanmar’s continued support for its counter-insurgency operations in the North-East.

Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders are deeply suspicious of Chinese intentions in their country. But deep economic dependence on China has kept Myanmar in Beijing’s grip. It could make it vulnerable to Chinese pressure on strategic issues. This is a dependence that India must break.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to assist Myanmar in financing and constructing a range of infrastructure projects under the proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The offer is similar to the one extended to Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Joint Statement

A joint statement, issued on January 18, claimed that “a new chapter” had been opened “in the ever-lasting friendship” between the two countries, stemming from the broad understanding to promote “comprehensive strategic cooperation.” It referred to building the “Myanmar-China Community with a Shared Future.” Exchanges of “experience in governance” will be deepened and strategic communication will be enhanced. Besides, the two governments plan to make good use of the 2+2 high-level consultations, comprising the two foreign ministers and defence ministers.

Rohingya Issue

Relationship between the two countries has warmed since 2017 when China refused to join the international outcry against the military campaign to force more than 730,000 Rohingya to flee across the border to Bangladesh.

China is making the case that some of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects can help alleviate the Rohingya conflict by accelerating the development of the Arakan region. It is also offering projects to promote economic development in the conflict-prone northern frontiers of Myanmar that have long challenged the writ of the central government in the south.

The Chinese also made it clear that the Myanmar government, currently under intense international pressure due to its rigid position on the Rohingya issue, will continue to receive China’s full support. Beijing has positioned itself as the great defender of Myanmar’s legitimate rights, interests and national dignity at a time when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is about to pronounce on the charges of genocide against the Myanmar military.

Three Pillars of CMEC

Xi met Myanmar’s leaders, including state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and army chief Min Aung Hlaing, in the capital, Naypyitaw, on 17 January. Ahead of the visit, Xi wrote an article in the Myanmar newspapers discussing the proposed projects in the economic corridor which will be part of China’s BRI.

“Our two sides need to deepen results-oriented Belt and Road cooperation and move from a conceptual stage to concrete planning and implementation in building the CMEC,” Xi said in the article.

Elaborating, Xi said, “Efforts need to be made to promote the three pillars of the CMEC, namely the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone, the China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone and New Yangon City.”

Through the agreements signed and discussions held about their follow-up during the visit, CMEC’s three pillars seem to have been consolidated.

The centrepiece of the so called CMEC is a $1.3 billion deep-sea port at Kyaukphyu in Rakhine state, giving Beijing a gateway to the Indian Ocean. A high-speed rail link is also on the cards to connect the port and nearby planned industrial zone with the countries’ shared border. Bilateral trade was worth $16.8 billion last year and Beijing holds the biggest share – around $4 billion or 40% – of Myanmar’s foreign debt.

Myanmar has successfully hammered down the price from $7.2 billion to swerve fears of a Chinese debt-trap, but will still pick up 30 per cent of the bill. Alongside the port, swathes of paddy fields and teak forests are poised to be transformed into a vast industrial zone of garment and food processing factories.

The first segment of the proposed high-speed rail link from China’s landlocked Yunnan province to Myanmar’s west coast will cut through the border town of Muse to former capital Mandalay. But engineering challenges through Myanmar’s hilly Shan State would likely be dwarfed by security concerns. The region is awash with weapons and a centre for meth production as armed rebels and militias jostle for a share of any potential windfall. They will first need to be appeased and reassured the rail link will not jeopardise their income or security.

Yangon authorities hope to revolutionise the sprawling, gridlocked commercial hub by creating a whole new town on the west bank of the city’s river. They say the satellite city will help solve problems of congestion, overpopulation and the lack of electricity and water.

India’s Interests

As China steps into the backwaters of the Bay of Bengal, the littorals of the Bay have a stake in constructing a regional order that limits conflict and promotes cooperation across the Bay of Bengal.China has already acquired the Gwadar port in Pakistan, followed by Hambantota in Sri Lanka in India’s backyard. Instead of seeing itself in irreconcilable competition with Beijing in Myanmar, Delhi should focus on making more effective contribution to Myanmar’s development and security. India needs to focus on quickly completing its own infrastructure projects in Myanmar and develop a new strategy for commercial partnership with Naypyidaw that is in tune with India’s own capabilities and strengths.

Delhi should also strengthen its collaboration with like-minded partners like Japan which has a growing economic presence in Myanmar.

Delhi also needs to bring fresh energy to the dormant dialogue with Beijing on the so-called BCIM corridor involving Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar. Although India has rejected China’s BRI, it has left the door open for cooperation with China on the BCIM corridor.

By pushing mega projects in a country that has not been of much interest in the past, China looks to consolidate a connection between its South-Western province of Yunnan and Bay of Bengal. The Kyaukpyu deep-sea port being developed by China on the eastern bank of Bay of Bengal, when put together with Chinese ambitions of CMEC, creates a full-fledged and high-potential path for China in its trade route.

China, via the CPEC and the Gwadar port, has already established a foot in the Indian subcontinent. With Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, Kyaukpyu in the Bay of Bengal as well as Hambantota in Sri Lanka, China has seemingly engulfed India from point of view of its presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). And, while these ports offer China immense potential both from strategic as well as trade perspectives, they garner apprehension for India – the only absentee from China’s BRI.

With BRI derivatives all around, India has a cause for concern. Not only has China propagated its BRI, making its outreach to IOR and gulf peninsula a reality, strangely enough, but there has been no check on its expansion by the US – for whom China’s strides matter the most.

In recent years, Chinese debt trap has been instrumental in treading a path for China to reach Indian waters. IOR has been a prime transit route of the global maritime traffic following the inauguration of the Suez Canal. While naturally, India is comfortably positioned to utilise the benefits of strategically paramount IOR, aggressive Chinese advances to form bases in IOR has ensured competition.

China’s growing geopolitical influence in IOR does not sit well with Indian interests. India has also taken steps to curb Chinese dominance of the area by offering a hefty economic package to the Maldives, empowering the latter to come out of the Chinese debt trap and not give in like Sri Lanka.

With three ports covering the entire peninsula of India in a sense, China wishes to tap on the opportunity-galore IOR. Kyaukpyu allows China to access IOR which unlocks entire South-East Asia.

Year by year, Chinese advances ensure a consolidated foot in the IOR while India spectates. Blessed naturally with a most-strategic position – head of IOR – India has to step up and emerge as a leading power in IOR. While India cannot blame China for its expansion, it can certainly counter it, especially in collaboration with its allies.

Impact on Relations With Myanmar

The situation around India has taken an adverse turn in the recent months. Against the general backdrop of consolidation of China-Pakistan relations, Xi’s visit to Nepal, his strategic gains in Myanmar, and forthcoming visit of the Sri Lankan President to Beijing form part of a pattern. It is one of the setbacks and challenges to India’s diplomacy in South Asia. It calls for deep reflection and comprehensive consultations with the finest minds in the country.

For India, China making inroads along its periphery in South Asia has been a major source of concern, and New Delhi will be watching the progress and implementation of the pacts signed during the visit with a wary eye.

Kyaukpyu could end up being a “dual use” facility – ie, for military as well as commercial uses. India will have to stretch its security capabilities to monitor Chinese activities in the Bay of Bengal.

China’s increased presence in Myanmar could mean constraints on India that wishes to deepen cooperation with Myanmar. India’s northeast is riven with insurgencies. Though New Delhi has taken steps in recent years to sign peace agreements with several groups in the region, the situation still needs careful attention. India and Myanmar have conducted several military operations along their borders in close cooperation with each other.

With Myanmar seemingly drawing closer to China under pressure from the West, Beijing could attempt to keep the country under its influence like it does in the case of Cambodia and Laos. The addition of Myanmar to Laos and Cambodia could also weaken ASEAN from within.

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