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Since a grim New Year’s Eve message describing the West as Russia’s true enemy in the war on Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has sent several signals that Russia will not back down. He has despatched hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic and appointed his top general to run the war.

US and Russian officials have both described Poseidon as a new category of retaliatory weapon, capable of triggering radioactive ocean swells to render coastal cities uninhabitable.

“The first Poseidon ammunition loads have been manufactured, and the Belgorod submarine will receive them in the near future,” TASS, a state news agency, quoted the source as saying.

TASS said the main components of Poseidon, including a nuclear reactor to give the torpedo its own power source, had been successfully completed. The crew of the Belgorod nuclear submarine has also completed tests with models of the torpedo, TASS said.

The defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Putin first announced what would become known as Poseidon in 2018, saying it was a fundamentally new type of strategic nuclear weapon, confirming it would have its own nuclear power supply.

There are few confirmed details about the Poseidon in the public domain but it is essentially a cross between a torpedo and a drone which can be launched from a nuclear submarine.

Russia’s defence ministry has shown videos of the 24-metre Poseidon, known as Kanyon by NATO, including simulations showing it destroying an enemy aircraft carrier and hitting the shoreline.

Putin’s torpedo

The Poseidon has its roots in Soviet plans under Josef Stalin for a nuclear torpedo which would be able to devastate the shores of the United States.

In the 2018 speech, Putin said the range of the torpedo would be unlimited and that it could operate at extreme depths at a speed many times that of any submarine or other torpedoes.

“They are very low noise, have high maneuverability and are practically indestructible for the enemy. There is no weapon that can counter them in the world today,” Putin said.

The Poseidon will be carried by the K-329 Belgorod, a special purpose nuclear submarine that was built by the Sevmash Shipyard.

The United States said in its Nuclear Posture Review in 2022 that Russia and China “continue to expand and diversify their nuclear capabilities, to include novel and destabilizing systems.”

“Russia is pursuing several novel nuclear-capable systems designed to hold the U.S. homeland or Allies and partners at risk,” according to the Posture Review.

Last year, the US Naval Institute said Russia’s development of Poseidon turned assumptions about submarine-launched nuclear weapons upside down.

“Perhaps most frightening, this nuclear weapon has the potential for autonomous operation,” the institute said.

“A fully operational Kanyon would have an incredible strategic impact,” it said in an article. “As a new delivery platform, it is not covered by current nuclear arms treaties.”

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A brief statement by the defence ministry did not identify the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tested from the 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, which became fully operational in 2018, in the Bay of Bengal.

Sources, however, said that the SLBM tested was the B-O5 or K-15 missile with a strike range of 750-km. “INS Arihant is armed with the short-range K-15 missiles. Developmental trials of the K-4 SLBM (with a 3,500-km range) have been completed but it is yet to be fully inducted,” a source said.

This is the first time the launch of an SLBM from INS Arihant has been announced by the government. It comes at a time when India and China continue to have over 50,000 soldiers each, backed by heavy-duty weapon systems, ranged against each other along the frontier in eastern Ladakh, with the military confrontation there now into its 30th month.

The world is also currently watching with bated breath the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where the threat of use of nuclear weapons is being considered the most serious since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

The MoD, on its part, said, “The SLBM was tested to a predetermined range and impacted the target area in the Bay of Bengal with very high accuracy. All operational and technological parameters of the weapon system have been validated.”

“The successful user training launch of the SLBM by INS Arihant is significant to prove crew competency and validate the SSBN (naval parlance for nuclear-propelled submarines armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles) programme, a key element of India’s nuclear deterrence capability. A robust, survivable and assured retaliatory capability is in keeping with India’s policy to have ‘credible minimum deterrence’ that underpins its ‘no-first use’ commitment,” the statement added.

INS Arihant does give some teeth to the weakest leg of India’s existing nuclear triad – the capability to fire nukes from land, air and sea – but much larger SSBNs that can carry longer range missiles are required to make it more credible.

The other two legs of the triad are, of course, much more robust with the induction of the land-based Agni series of ballistic missiles as well as fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Rafales that are capable of dropping nuclear gravity bombs.

Under the Rs 90,000 crore top-secret advanced technology vessel (ATV) project, India is currently building three more SSBNs to follow INS Arihant, which is propelled by an 83 MW pressurized light-water reactor at its core.

The second such submarine, INS Arighat, is slated to become fully operational next year after some delay. The vessel will be followed by two 7,000-tonne SSBNs, currently called S-4 and S-4*, under the ATV project. There is also the plan to build 13,500-tonne SSBNs with much more powerful 190 MW reactors.

Concurrently, the K-4 SLBM is to be followed by the K-5 and K-6 missiles in the 5,000 to 6,000-km class. All this will decidedly narrow the gap with countries like the US, Russia and China, which have much larger SSBNs with over 5,000-km range missiles.

Much more capable SSBNs will give India’s deterrence posture greater credibility because they are considered the most secure, survivable and potent platforms for retaliatory strikes after a surprise first-strike by an adversary.

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The world first became aware of Russia’s Poseidon torpedo in 2018, when it was revealed in a speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The torpedo is a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed, autonomous underwater vehicle designed to deliver a massive payload of explosives.

The Russians claim to have tested the Poseidon torpedo in November 2019. According to them, the Russian Navy conducted a successful test launch of the Poseidon torpedo from a submerged submarine. The test was conducted in the White Sea and was reportedly successful.

However, it should be noted that there is no evidence of the Poseidon being tested, especially over an intercontinental range. There are serious doubts about its operational status. Some sources have made exaggerated claims about Poseidon’s ability to destroy coastal infrastructure.

In addition to the above they will not be able to test the Poseidon for two reasons :

If a nuclear detonation test went wrong and the ensuing radioactive tsunami hit Crimea, it might make the situation extremely difficult for Russia.

Without a nuclear weapon, a test failure would raise questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear deterrent.

There are other torpedoes with similar capabilities to the Poseidon in the world’s navies. For example, the United States Navy has the Mark 48 torpedo, which is a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed, autonomous underwater vehicle with a range of up to 6,000 kilometers and a speed of up to 50 knots. Additionally, the Royal Navy has the Spearfish torpedo, which is a conventional-powered, nuclear-armed, autonomous underwater vehicle with a range of up to 10,000 kilometers and a speed of up to 50 knots.

The Poseidon Torpedo or Status-6 is an autonomous, nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

The designer claims it can autonomously navigate to the intended target, travelling at speeds up to 200 km/hr, and deliver a 100 MT nuclear warhead that will generate tsunami waves 500 meters in height, all while remaining undetected throughout its journey to the target.

Several Russian submarines are believed to be armed with the Poseidon torpedo. These include the Borei-class submarines, the Yasen-class submarines, and the Lada-class submarines. Additionally, the Russian Navy is reportedly planning to equip its new Project 885M submarines with the Poseidon torpedo.

The first question that comes up is, “How will the torpedo navigate to the intended target with enough accuracy and without being detected?” Inertial Navigation System (INS) alone is not going to be sufficient. It would have to be augmented with seabed Terrain Controur Matching (TERCOM) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Given the size of the guidance, navigation and control compartment in the torpedo, it would make sense if they included a backup legacy navigation system such as GLONASS and rode extremely low frequency beacons (82 Hz) using phase adjustment, whose transmitters would be land-based (at Murmansk and the others might be based near Venezuela or Cuba). During a war, the first targets would be these land-based transmitters; the torpedo would then switch to the GLONASS/INS system. The extra space in the guidance, navigation & control (GN&C) compartment could be used for the equipment for seabed TERCOM, data for the predetermined paths, autonomous switching between operation modes, terrain avoidance, drift calculation modules, etc.

The next aspect is the speed of the torpedo. The design bureau claims achievable speeds of around 200 km/h. To achieve these speeds, a high-power output reactor would be required. The downside is that it would make the torpedo very detectable and lose out on its surprise element. We can expect a reasonable output from the power plant. Given the dimensions of the platform, the reactor compartment is around 6–8 ft in length, and a rough estimate of the diameter is around 6-6.5 ft. Now the catch is that if the shielding is high to lower the radiation and its thermal signature on any anti-submarine warfare (ASW) platform, the internal core dimensions would reduce significantly and the output could be expected to be a lot less (around 3-5 MW). The other case is that if the shielding is minimal and the reactor core would be a bit larger with more space to accommodate coolant volume, the expected output would be around 6-7 MW. The choice of reactor would be a gas-cooled reactor, as the power output mentioned above would be more achievable with the same. In the event that a pressurized water reactor is used, the coolant pumps would basically advertise the location of the torpedo to any observer, making it a less desirable choice.

During engagement, assuming the torpedo moves at very slow speed towards the coastal target or a carrier battle group taking many weeks and then sprints at high speeds towards the target near the surface. The onboard batteries would need to be charged, assuming a low duty cycle, the output from the reactor and the storage capacity of the batteries, it would make adjustments in its final approach. The batteries could be Li-Ion batteries. Considering silent operations, the charging process could take many days and finally when the sprinting is required it would dispense the battery power making the high speeds viable. It could be possible to do both super slow and super fast propulsion. For super slow movements, the reactor could operate at 70-80% capacity without engaging the coolant pumps. As speculated Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) would be the fuel to make this possible. Minimizing movement of control rods would be essential in making the platform even more stealthy. The claim of speeds of up-to 100 knots can be disputed and brought down to a reasonable 67-74 knots range (after assuming the weight of the platform, the power requirements for cooling systems, the GN&C systems). During detonation of the warhead, the reactor would also likely undergo fission and provide additional yield to the blast.

The yield of the warhead is claimed to be around 100 MT which might not conform to the dimensional limitations of the Poseidon’s warhead compartment. The rough estimate of the compartment dimensions for the nuclear warhead are around 9-11 ft in length and 6.5 ft in diameter. The warhead design has certain limitations even if it is of the relatively newer generation ones. The amount of fissile material, the arrangement for the primary and secondary or the third stage would require more space and volume. We can consider the Tsar Bomba as a benchmark in regards to the dimensions. Over the course of years, the material and geometrical considerations have evolved but they still conform to the basic design laws. The amount of tritium required and the pressure required would be considerably larger. The metallurgical considerations for the plutonium pit of such size would severely limit the yield. The geometric setting for the x-ray transport phenomena to maximize the yield would stretch out the warhead. Keeping the above into consideration, the current size of the Poseidon’s warhead would be limited to anything under 10-15 MT (theoretically).

Another important consideration is the intended target, the most probable target as has also been conveyed through the propaganda is the heavily populated coastal regions. According to my calculations, the most probable target would be the region where two tectonic plates share their boundaries. There are coastal regions, especially cities and landmasses in very close proximity to the boundary of the North American Plate and the Pacific Plate. The buildup of stress in the San Andreas Fault might be quickly released if a detonation or a series of detonations of such yield take place. The long predicted earthquake might come a little earlier and cause devastation to the landmasses in the proximity. After the detonation in the near surface region of such landmasses, a Tsunami can be expected but the tide of the Tsunami might not exceed 100-150 ft. It will submerge some areas, but the subsequent destabilization of the San Andreas fault would be a much bigger concern.

Theoretically, the Poseidon torpedo is capable of causing a huge tsunami. Its yield of up to 100 megatons, can cause a devastating tsunami if detonated in the ocean. It was claimed that the United Kingdom could potentially be drowned in a tsunami from a Poseidon torpedo attack. As it is, the UK is also at risk of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, which can occur when large amounts of sediment are displaced by an earthquake. Additionally, the UK is at risk of tsunamis generated by volcanic eruptions, which can occur when large amounts of magma are displaced by an eruption.

One way to counter the Poseidon is through the use of anti-torpedo systems, such as the US Navy’s Mk-48 Advanced Capability (ADCAP) torpedo. This system is designed to detect and intercept incoming torpedoes, allowing for a greater chance of successful defence against the Poseidon. Additionally, other countermeasures, such as acoustic decoys, can be used to confuse and divert the torpedo away from its intended target.

Verdict : While the Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo excels at fulfilling the internal and external propaganda, but the claims made by the designer need to be fully validated.

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A brief statement by the defence ministry did not identify the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) tested from the 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, which became fully operational in 2018, in the Bay of Bengal.

Sources, however, said that the SLBM tested was the B-O5 or K-15 missile with a strike range of 750-km. “INS Arihant is armed with the short-range K-15 missiles. Developmental trials of the K-4 SLBM (with a 3,500-km range) have been completed but it is yet to be fully inducted,” a source said.

This is the first time the launch of an SLBM from INS Arihant has been announced by the government. It comes at a time when India and China continue to have over 50,000 soldiers each, backed by heavy-duty weapon systems, ranged against each other along the frontier in eastern Ladakh, with the military confrontation there now into its 30th month.

The world is also currently watching with bated breath the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where the threat of use of nuclear weapons is being considered the most serious since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

The MoD, on its part, said, “The SLBM was tested to a predetermined range and impacted the target area in the Bay of Bengal with very high accuracy. All operational and technological parameters of the weapon system have been validated.”

“The successful user training launch of the SLBM by INS Arihant is significant to prove crew competency and validate the SSBN (naval parlance for nuclear-propelled submarines armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles) programme, a key element of India’s nuclear deterrence capability. A robust, survivable and assured retaliatory capability is in keeping with India’s policy to have ‘credible minimum deterrence‘ that underpins its ‘no-first use’ commitment,” the statement added.

INS Arihant does give some teeth to the weakest leg of India’s existing nuclear triad – the capability to fire nukes from land, air and sea – but much larger SSBNs that can carry longer range missiles are required to make it more credible.

The other two legs of the triad are, of course, much more robust with the induction of the land-based Agni series of ballistic missiles as well as fighters like Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Rafales that are capable of dropping nuclear gravity bombs.

Under the Rs 90,000 crore top-secret advanced technology vessel (ATV) project, India is currently building three more SSBNs to follow INS Arihant, which is propelled by an 83 MW pressurized light-water reactor at its core.

The second such submarine, INS Arighat, is slated to become fully operational next year after some delay. The vessel will be followed by two 7,000-tonne SSBNs, currently called S-4 and S-4*, under the ATV project. There is also the plan to build 13,500-tonne SSBNs with much more powerful 190 MW reactors.

Concurrently, the K-4 SLBM is to be followed by the K-5 and K-6 missiles in the 5,000 to 6,000-km class. All this will decidedly narrow the gap with countries like the US, Russia and China, which have much larger SSBNs with over 5,000-km range missiles.

Much more capable SSBNs will give India’s deterrence posture greater credibility because they are considered the most secure, survivable and potent platforms for retaliatory strikes after a surprise first-strike by an adversary.

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This is the most significant offer of military equipment to India and could give the Indian Navy formidable sea denial capability in the Indian Ocean Region and provide it the sea legs to exercise a credible military presence in the Indo-Pacific Region. Nuclear submarine technology is regarded as the crown jewel of military capability.

Coming close on the heels of the Rafale fighter aircraft deal, this reported French offer to provide India the knowhow to make nuclear submarines has the potential to establish France as India’s pre-eminent Defence partner, a position traditionally enjoyed by Russia.

This is the first time that a nuclear-powered attack submarine technology would be offered to India. In the past, Russia and the erstwhile Soviet Union have on two occasions leased nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) to India. India has also signed a reported $3 Billion deal in 2019 for the lease of another SSN of the Akula class to the Indian Navy, making it the only navy other than those of the P5 countries to have operated a nuclear attack submarine.

The Barracuda class submarine is nuclear-powered but not nuclear armed. An SSN like the Barracuda is nonetheless the most formidable sea denial weapon. This submarine, while remaining submerged for extended durations, has a powerful land attack capability with the 1,000-km-range Scalp Naval cruise missile. The time between refueling is a reported 10 years.

Observers reckon that the door for the French offer of nuclear submarines to India opened up after the deal to provide American and British nuclear submarine knowhow to Australia upon the forging of the AUKUS grouping to deter China. France is also smarting from the Australian cancellation of a mega deal for 12 conventional submarines while accepting the American offer under the AUKUS umbrella.

But acquiring deep technology for SSNs has been a priority for India for many years. The indigenous programme for six SSNs is still in the design stage. The offer for the Barracuda is the consequence of regular deep consultations with France to deepen military cooperation. In October, the 5th session of the India-Franco Maritime Cooperation dialogue was held in Paris to carry forward discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The Barracuda submarine is produced by the Naval Group, which is currently engaged in delivering the contract to build six Scorpene class diesel-electric submarines at Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL), Mumbai, for the Indian Navy.

If the Barracuda offer gains momentum, it is expected to have repercussions for the ongoing $5.7 Billion programme to build a new line of six diesel-electric submarines for the Indian Navy under Project 75 (I), which is already struggling with a de facto single vendor situation.

The Barracuda offer could potentially subsume Project 75 (I), informed observers reckon.

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The US, Britain and Australia announced, on 15 September, a new trilateral security alliance for the Indo-Pacific to take on the threats of the 21st century and allow for greater sharing of defence capabilities, including help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines, in a bid to counter China’s growing power in the strategically vital region.

Unveiling the ambitious security initiative, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison in a joint statement said their move will promote stability in the Indo-Pacific and support of their shared values and interests. “We are taking another historic step to deepen and formalise cooperation among all three of our nations because we all recognise the imperative of ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term,” President Biden said at the virtual launch of the new alliance known as AUKUS on Wednesday.

Biden said that the three countries will update and enhance their shared ability to take on the threats of the 21st century, just as they did in the 20th century, together. The United States, Australia, United Kingdom have long been faithful and capable partners and we’re even closer today. Today, we’re taking another historic step to deepen and formalise cooperation among all three of our nations because we all recognise the imperative of ensuring peace stability in the Indo-Pacific over the long term, he said.

Interestingly, the announcement of AUKUS came a week before a meeting of Quad leaders to be hosted by US President Biden in Washington on September 24. The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Australia Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

What is AUKUS

Under the AUKUS alliance, the three nations have agreed to enhance the development of joint capabilities and technology sharing, foster deeper integration of security and defence-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains.
Under the first major initiative of AUKUS, Australia would build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with the help of the US and the UK, a capability aimed at promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

France Indignant

The announcement is significant not only because it involves the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia but also since it implies the cancellation of an ongoing U.S.$90 billion project by France to manufacture conventional submarines for Australia.

Paris recalled its Ambassador to Australia, accusing Canberra of “backstabbing” and betrayal. When Australian and French ministers met less than a month earlier, French officials said there had been no talk of cancelling the deal. The two sides had even issued a joint statement indicating the continuation of the submarine programme. But Australia, it seemed, was secretly negotiating a deal with the U.K. and the U.S. Beyond Canberra’s unceremonious termination of the submarine contract, France was angry because it was kept in the dark about the discussions surrounding the new pact.

Chinese Reactions

In Beijing, the Chinese foreign ministry sharply criticised the trilateral military partnership, saying it would closely monitor the pact that will gravely undermine regional stability and aggravate the arms race and hurt international non-proliferation efforts.
Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, on 29 September, in a phone conversation with the Malaysian and Bruneian foreign ministers, said the AUKUS move was likely to bring about five dangers to the region.

• Firstly, it will cause risks of nuclear proliferation. While the United States has unilaterally imposed sanctions on countries developing enriched uranium technology, it gave Australia a green light, which will inevitably give rise to more risks of proliferation of nuclear technology and materials, impacting the global non-proliferation regime.
• Secondly, it will induce a new round of arms race. Australia’s move will break the strategic balance in the region. It could not be ruled out that other countries would follow the move to wage a new round of arms race, even crossing the nuclear threshold.
• Thirdly, it will undermine regional prosperity and stability. AUKUS will surely to create tensions, casting a shadow on the region’s peace, stability, and development.
• Fourthly, it will sabotage the building of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in South-East Asia.
• Fifthly, it will revive the Cold War mentality. AUKUS, in line with the Quad, complies with and serves the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, seeking to overturn the current status quo and start all over again, with an eye to provoking rivalry among blocs in the region and ushering in geopolitical zero-sum games.

What does AUKUS mean for India

Australia will receive top quality nuclear submarine technology from the U.S. and the U.K., strengthening China deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. But if Australia and the U.S. could deceive France, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partner, what is to prevent them from doing the same with lesser allies?

The Indian Navy presently dominates the Eastern Indian Ocean, but its conventional underwater capability has been shrinking. An Indian plan to develop a fleet of nuclear attack submarines has elicited no offer of help from the U.S. that does not share its prized nuclear submarine technology with even its closest allies; all except Australia, evidently.

Washington’s willingness to help Canberra build SSNs raises the possibility that Australia could deploy nuclear submarines in the Eastern Indian Ocean well before India positions its own. The Indian Navy is not building submarines at a pacecommensurate with needs. Notwithstanding shared concerns over China’s growing submarine presence in the region, however, Indian officials are not comfortable with the prospect of friendly SSNs in India’s backyard.

India is being careful in its official response to AUKUS. The bottom line for New Delhi is that it cannot be seen to be taking sides in a feud among friends – France, U.S., U.K. and Australia – some of India’s closest partners.

Officially, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla distanced Quad — “a plurilateral grouping of four countries that have a shared vision of their attributes and values” — from AUKUS — “a security alliance between three countries”, adding that “from our perspective, it is neither relevant to the Quad nor will it have any impact on its functioning”.

Comments

The objective of AUKUS is “to deal with rapidly evolving threats”, and it envisages closer intelligence-sharing and cooperation in areas of Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyber-warfare and quantum computing. The US, UK and Australia are already part of the Five Eyes intelligence network, together with Canada and New Zealand. And so, up to this point, AUKUS would have been seen as an attempt to shore up an Anglo-Saxon grouping in the Indo-Pacific, attracting dismissive commentary from Beijing and mild speculation about how AUKUS would engage with Quad. However, it is the abrupt cancelling of the submarine deal that has shocked and angered France.

There was no denying a sense of wariness in New Delhi. It did not help that AUKUS took the focus away from the Quad. The agreement suggested preferential treatment on the part of Washington for a close Anglo-alliance partner. That led some in Delhi to wonder why the U.S. should make an allowance for one Quad partner and not another.
The Indian Navy’s indigenous SSN programme requires a nuclear reactor more powerful than the one installed in the Arihant (a non war-fighting platform). Some in India were hopeful that the U.S. would consider providing the Indian Navy with nuclear submarine propulsion technology.

New Delhi must seize the opportunity to push France to transfer its nuclear propulsion technology. Despite the less than satisfactory experience with the Project 75 ‘Scorpene’ class submarine programme, India, some say, should accept French assistance with building an SSN reactor.

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