The unthinkable is happening in the Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi: the Pakistan Army is divided in its political loyalties. For the better part of 76 years, it was Pakistani politicians who have been divided in their loyalties to the Army GHQ. And the GHQ unfailingly picked their favourite politician and installed him or her in office, usually to rescue a Martial-Law-Administrator-turned-President from the hot seat. These roles are likely to be reversed if the ongoing tussle on the streets of Pakistan for control of the country reaches its logical conclusion later this year. It may happen sooner if the streets of Pakistan become bloodied after Nawaz Sharif returns home from Umrah in Saudi Arabia instead of going back to his self-imposed exile in London. It may happen only next year if Sharif is able to – even while being out of any formal office – restore a semblance of normalcy in the life of the aam admi in his country or if simmering differences in the Army are papered over.

Divided Loyalties

The new Army Chief, General Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, will stop at nothing to prevent the hugely popular Imran Khan from returning to elected office in Islamabad. Khan sacked General Munir, as he is commonly known, as Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Chief before he completed even one year as spymaster and installed his most loyal General Faiz Hameed, now retired, in that crucial post. In Pakistan, the Chief of the (ISI) always has unfathomable tricks up his uniform, which less wily and conspiratorial Chiefs of Army Staff have to contend with. Despite his retirement, Faiz – as he is best known – commands huge loyalty at the Army GHQ.

After all, as ISI Chief, he won Afghanistan back for Pakistan without firing a shot on India’s Independence Day in 2021, went to Kabul soon after and practically handpicked and installed members of the new Taliban regime that September. Since retirement, Faiz has been helping Khan build his populist mass movement just as he is said to have covertly helped the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader build up his movement to dislodge Sharif as Prime Minister after the infamous 2016 Panama Papers leak on illegal foreign assets owned by politicians. Because Faiz has a following in the Army ranks, Munir has been viewing the former’s activities with great consternation. The Chief is unable to maintain the disciplined, monolithic atmosphere within the Pakistan Army any longer.

Then there is another General who has become a backroom player, the retired Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa. Always suspected, it has now been circumstantially acknowledged that Bajwa was instrumental in regime change in Islamabad last year because, for the most part, Khan had become an insurgent against Pakistan’s benefactors in Washington. After Shehbaz Sharif succeeded Khan, Bajwa is known to have been in constant contact with Nawaz Sharif in London.

Arrogated Guardian

The unprecedented intrigues within the Army – which were always firmly and quickly put down in the past before they drew big attention – do not bode well for India and for the rest of the world. The Army has been Pakistan’s only stable institution since General Ayub Khan – self-appointed Field Marshal in 1965 – seized power 11 years after that country’s formation in a constitutional coup d’état, justified by the Supreme Court under the “Doctrine of Necessity.” Every other institution in Pakistan has been systematically eviscerated and cannot be a reliable interlocutor for India. This applies to Washington as well, although successive administrations in the White House make a pretence of wanting democracy in Islamabad.

Most of Pakistan’s leaders like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had gradually, through trial by fire, been installed in office and also thrown out of office, matured under the Army’s overarching roof as the arrogated guardian of that country’s ultimate self-interest. Khan is yet to reach that level, having been in power just one time. Hillary Clinton, the United States of America’s Secretary of State, famously said: “It is like that old story – you cannot keep snakes in your backyard and expect them to only bite your neighbours. Eventually, those snakes are going to turn on whomever has them in the backyard.” Unlike other Prime Ministers mentored by the Army GHQ, Khan is yet to learn that lesson. Otherwise, he would not have committed the monumental mistake of making peace with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). That fragile peace ended when Khan ceased to be Prime Minister and Faiz retired as ISI Chief. The proverbial snakes have since been turning on those within Pakistan.

But the illusory idea of peace with the TTP has a big following within the Army’s ranks and this school is now ranged against Bajwa’s idea of accommodation with India and engagement of the US. Munir belongs to this camp, so does Nawaz Sharif. If these differences are not reconciled soon and the Army can no longer be the glue holding the country together, there is every possibility that Pakistan could splinter like Yugoslavia. With Pakistan’s secret warehouses full of nuclear weapons, this is not good news for anyone, least of all for neighbour India.

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According to reports from Kabul, the Chaman border crossing was evacuated, and medical emergency declared as more than 15 civilians were injured in heavy machine gun and mortar firing by both TTP fighters and Afghanistan Taliban. The clashes erupted after Pakistan Army ostensibly tried to repair the border fence forcing both the TTP and the Afghan Taliban to retaliate. As many as seven Pak nationals were killed in cross-border shelling by the Taliban earlier in December.

With series of clashes erupting all along the Af-Pak border, the Taliban experiment is proving to be costly for the Pakistan government in Islamabad and its deep state in adjoining Rawalpindi. While the Taliban government occupied Kabul on August 15, 2021, with the help of then Pakistan ISI chief Gen Faiz Hameed, a protégé of then PM Imran Khan Niazi, the ultra-conservative Sunni Pashtun government has turned against its once upon a time handlers and started targeting the Republic.

The rise of Taliban in Afghanistan has taken Islamic radicalization in Pakistan to a different level with a large section of public wanting that Islamic Republic should be turned into Emirate with Sharia law akin to Afghanistan. Although Pakistani deep state thought that Taliban would push the TTP to compromise with Rawalpindi and lead to indefinite ceasefire, the radical extremist group broke the ceasefire on November 28 and asked its cadre to carry out attack in the entire Republic.

Even though then Pakistan PM Imran Khan Niazi praised the Taliban occupation of Kabul by calling it “throwing off their shackles of slavery” under two decades of US occupation, the Sunni Pashtun force is today totally at odds with Islamabad as it refuses to recognize the Durand Line as the border. The Taliban have made it amply clear that it does not recognize the British drawn Durand Line as it divides the Pashtun community and hence they want Pashtun dominated areas on Af-Pak border to be under control of Kabul.

With the Taliban government refusing to act as proxy of Rawalpindi, Pakistan is still to recognize the Emirate of Afghanistan despite Islamabad being the chief promoter of the Sunni group for the past three decades. Instead, it is using terror groups like so-called Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) and other terror groups to destabilize the Taliban government in Kabul. It is the same extremist forces which are also trying to spread instability and radicalization in the Central Asian Republics much to the chagrin of Russia.

While India has reached out to Taliban as part of its historic commitment to help the Afghan people notwithstanding the political regime in power, the strategic depth game of Pakistan against India has gone awry with the Sunni Pashtun not interested in fighting proxy wars for Rawalpindi headquarters. With Pakistan’s western borders heating up due to regular clashes with TTP and Afghan Taliban, Islamabad’s plan has gone all topsy-turvy.

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Intriguingly, each one of these allegations could be true. Imran has been on a course of confrontation with the army, blaming it — and the US — for his ouster. The attack could be the handiwork of religious fanatics, too — the would-be assassin has said that he wanted to kill Imran because he was ‘misleading’ people and the loudspeakers of his cavalcade were interfering with the aazan. And though it would be uncharitable to believe that it was a staged attack, there are many who believe this to be true.

The attack on Imran took place exactly a week after two Generals, representing the army and the ISI, declared that the army ‘as an institution has decided that it would stay out of politics.’ This claim is being treated with scepticism, and there are reports of there being pro-Imran and anti-Imran factions in the army. Indeed, it is believed that Imran could not have been so critical of the army if he did not have the backing of a few powerful Generals. India, ‘closely monitoring the situation’, would hope for democracy to prevail in Pakistan because military rule has been disastrous for that country, and detrimental to peace in the neighbourhood.

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During a roadshow in Peshawar, on 13 April, Khan who was ousted after the recent no-confidence motion against his government, questioned whether Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were safe in the hands of what he called “robbers” and “thieves”, referring to the newly elected Shehbaz Sharif regime.
Meanwhile, addressing a press briefing today, Major General Babar Iftikhar, the Director-General (DG) of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR)- the media wing of the Pakistan army- dismissed Khan’s allegations stating that Pakistan’s nuclear assets do not belong to just one individual.

In an incendiary speech, on 13 April night, Imran Khan had said he wanted to ask the country’s establishment if the people who were brought to power as part of a “conspiracy” can safeguard the country’s nuclear program.

“The conspiracy under which these people were brought to power, I ask my institutions, is our nuclear program which is in their hands, can they protect it?” Khan said.

The former Prime Minister has been claiming that his ouster was part of a foreign conspiracy hatched by the US, which furious over Khan’s Moscow visit on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had sought to remove Imran Khan so that it could “forgive” Pakistan.

Addressing the US, Khan at the Peshawar rally said, “America, we don’t need your apology… who are you to forgive us? You are accustomed to these slaves, these Sharifs, these Zardaris.”

“Is the nuclear program safe in the hands of these robbers, whose money is outside?” Imran Khan further said. Addressing the country’s institutions again, he said, “Aren’t you putting the safety of Pakistanis in the hands of these thieves, have you no fear of God?”

Pakistan Army has rubbished Khan’s allegations. “There is no such threat to our nuclear program and we should not bring it up in our political discussions,” DG-ISPIR, Gen Iftikhar said.

“Our program is at such a place that our command and control mechanism, asset security is one of the best in international evaluation,” he added.

Meanwhile, Imran Khan in a tweet on Thursday thanked all those who attended his Peshawar rally to “reject the US-initiated regime change” in Pakistan.

“Want to thank all those who came to our jalsa in Peshawar making it a mammoth & historic jalsa. The passion & commitment crowd showed in support of an indep sovereign Pak & their total rejection of US-initiated regime change bringing to power criminals, shows where nation stands,” Imran Khan said in a tweet.

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Sources have told ET that there have also been delays in supply of field artillery guns by China’s NORINCO (North Industries Corporation) and the production of main battle tanks have been temporarily halted as investigations are on to determine the reason for the faults.

In an attempt to increase its artillery firepower, the Pakistani Army received at least eight of the heavy 203 mm towed guns from NORINCO that were tested at its ranges earlier this month. Sources said that the guns faced several issues during firing trails at Sonmiani (Pakistan), which included faults in the rammer assembly and breech lock.

Following the trials, the Chinese manufacturer has been told to investigate the cause and identify reasons for failure. In the past, Pakistan has relied on the US to supply it 203 mm heavy artillery grade weapons but has gradually been shifting towards cheaper Chinese options. While eight guns were initially supplied, the Pak Army would look at a larger number in the future if satisfied with their performance.

Similarly, sources said, problems have also been discovered in the VT 4 main battle tanks imported from China. The Pakistani Army ordered 44 of the tanks and shortcomings were observed in post delivery tests and field firing trials. It is believed that the shortcomings and possible reasons were conveyed to the Chinese manufacturer.

In fact, sources added that the delivery of a second batch of 44 tanks has been delayed as rectification of the faults is now underway. The second batch was to be delivered in December last year but has now been postponed to at least October. “The production has been suspended for now till the faults are properly identified and corrective measures put in place,” sources said.

Delays have also taken place in the delivery of SH 15 self propelled artillery guns purchase from NORINCO in 2019. The Pakistani Army had placed an order for 236 guns but at present, the delivery schedule is believed to be at least seven months behind the contracted time, with the first batch of 54 arriving in January. Sources said that the quality of these guns will also now be put to test during firing trial and training activities in the coming weeks. China has become the largest arms supplier to Pakistan in recent years, with another close partner being Turkey. Major arms contracts inked include frigates, submarines, fighter aircraft and tanks. This increased reliability on China has reduced the influence of the US that in the past supplied billions of dollar worth of equipment, including F 16 fighter jets under the war on terror umbrella.

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The main themes of the National Security Policy are national cohesion, securing an economic future, defence and territorial integrity, internal security, foreign policy in a changing world and human security.

The original version of the policy will remain classified. Unveiling the public version of the policy, which was separately endorsed by the National Security Committee and the Cabinet last month, Prime Minister Khan said that the previous governments had failed to strengthen Pakistan’s economy.

The national security has been clearly explained in the new original 100-page document, he said, adding that the policy articulates a citizen-centric framework, placing economic security at its core and seeking a secure and economically resilient Pakistan.

Khan said that Pakistan, since its evolution, has had a one-dimensional security policy where the focus was on the military. “For the first time, the National Security Division has developed a consensus document which defines national security in a proper way,” he added.

The powerful army, which has ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 70 plus years of existence, has hitherto wielded considerable power in the matters of security and foreign policy.

The five-year-policy document covering a period between 2022-26, is being propped up by the Khan government as the country’s first-ever strategy paper of its kind that spells out the national security vision and guidelines for the attainment of those goals.

“We need to realise that our biggest security is when the people become stakeholders and stand up for the country. And this can be achieved through inclusive growth. We need to develop as a nation, not in sections, Khan said.

Earlier, National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf said that Pakistan, under the new policy, will be shifting to a Comprehensive National Security Framework with the aim of ensuring the safety, security, and dignity of the citizens of Pakistan. “The policy puts economic security at the core. A stronger economy would create additional resources which would then be distributed to further bolster military and human security, he said.

The report in the Express Tribune, quoting the Pak NSA, said the policy places the Jammu and Kashmir issue as the core of the bilateral relationship. When asked about the message it sends to India, Yusuf said: it tells India to do the right thing and jump on the bandwagon to benefit from regional connectivity to uplift our peoples. It also tells India, if you don’t want to do the right thing, it will be a loss to the entire region, but most of all India.

Peace with immediate neighbours and economic diplomacy will be the central theme of Pakistan’s foreign policy in the new National Security Policy, the newspaper reported.

Hindutva and Kashmir

There is the mention of ‘Hindutva politics’, which needs hostility to Pakistan as the centre-point of India’s internal politics. There is also a fear expressed that an India driven by this ideology could try enforcing one-sided solutions. Or warfare could break out, whether conventional or, interestingly, of the ‘no-contact’ variety.

On the foreign front, the new policy highlights disinformation, Hindutva, and the use of aggression for domestic political gains as key threats from India, the Express Tribune newspaper reported.

Pakistan has blamed “Indias hegemonic designs” and the “unresolved Kashmir dispute” for the strained bilateral ties. In its first ever National Security Policy, Pakistan said: “Towards the immediate east, bilateral ties have been stymied as a consequence of the unresolved Kashmir dispute and India’s hegemonic designs”.

Jammu and Kashmir finds only a small mention in the document which runs into 48 pages. “A just and peaceful resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains a vital national security interest for Pakistan. India’s illegal and unilateral actions of August 2019 have been rejected by the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

“Indian occupation forces continue to undertake human rights abuses and oppression through war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocidal acts in IIOJK. In addition, India continues to create false propaganda around the Kashmiri resistance to hide its illegal actions.

“Pakistan remains steadfast in its moral, diplomatic, political, and legal support to the people of Kashmir until they achieve their right to self-determination guaranteed by the international community as per UN Security Council resolutions,” the document said.

India’s Position

India has told Pakistan that it desires normal neighbourly relations with Islamabad in an environment free of terror, hostility and violence.

During the first term of Narendra Modi in 2014, the relations took a positive turn when he announced his intentions to have cordial relations with Pakistan. He had also visited Islamabad in 2015 unannounced to attend a marriage ceremony in Sharif’s family.

However, the relations between the two countries turned south following the horrific 2016 Uri attacks in which four terrorists launched grenade attacks on Indian Army soldiers in the Indian’s Jammu and Kashmir on 18 September. The attack killed 19 soldiers and injured 19–30 others. It was reported as “the deadliest attack on security forces in Kashmir in two decades”. Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed was involved in the planning and execution of the attack.

Comments

Kashmir merits only 113 words and is among the smaller segments in this plan document is curious. There is no demand for the reversal of the 5 August 2019 changes made by India in the status of Jammu & Kashmir.

The emphasis is on the economy being main bedrock of national security. Pakistan is hurting economically, with internal instability and global indifference. It is involved in humiliating negotiations with the IMF for further disbursals from the sanctioned loan. Pakistan’s 11th since 1993.

Recently Imran Khan said that Pakistan’s economy was in a better place than India’s! At the same time it has asked for the IMF Board meeting to be deferred to the end of this month, as it weighs the risks in losing this bailout or raising prices of goods, utilities, taxes, and passing a new law guaranteeing the autonomy of its central bank.

This emphasis on the economy, internal stability, threat from sectarian strife and internal separatist movements underlines a much more inward-looking Pakistan than we have seen for three decades.

An assessmento fhte world situation covers Afghanistan, China, India and ends with Iran. All others are covered under ‘Rest of the World’. The US features under Rest of the World.

On America, it says Pakistan does not subscribe to “camp politics”. Considering that Pajistan was once a member of multi-national military-strategic alliances with the US, and are still treaty-bound security allies, it is acutely aware that US President Jowe Biden is only showing indifference to Pakistan.

Pakistan is hurting, looking inwards, and realises it has lost global stature and friendship with the US.

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