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The 1994 parliamentary resolution which Rajnath Singh referred to read, “On behalf of the people of India we firmly declare that the state of Jammu & Kashmir has been, is and shall be an integral part of India and any attempts to separate it from the rest of the country will be resisted by all necessary means…. India has the will and capacity to firmly counter all designs against its unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity and demands that Pakistan must vacate the areas of the Indian state of Jammu & Kashmir, which they have occupied through aggression and resolves that all attempts to interfere with the internal affairs of India will be met resolutely.’ 

Many would describe this as adventurism of the kind Russia has engaged in to capture areas in Ukraine.

Gilgit-Baltistan is right in the north of the Ladakh part of united Jammu & Kashmir. The Corps Commander of 15 Corps in Srinagar was asked to react to what the defence minister said. He said if orders came to march North, all forces are ready. We are refining our forces’ conventional capabilities. When it is required there should be no looking back.

This was not the first time when India had said that in its efforts to push towards Akhand Bharat “We will reclaim Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK).” As recently as in September 2019 the foreign minister said, “POK is part of India and we expect one day that we will have physical jurisdiction over.” Removal of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution has sent an unambiguous signal that J&K is not negotiable and all that has to be settled is PoK and Baltistan, he added.

All this is happening when Pakistan looks extremely feeble with a round of political infighting.

Sometimes politicians need to make statements which will boost the morale of the country but this was not something that was happening in isolation over the last few days or years, rather the prime minister and his ministers’ statements have been coming out with quite regularity.

Strategic Opportunity

If you go by a geostrategic precedent. In 1962 – Russia and the United States were teetering on the brink of a nuclear war.

If India were to choose a geostrategic window for carrying out this operation, it could not have had anything better.

When Shahbaz Sharif took charge in Pakistan, we had a segment in the Indian establishment that felt that he was Nawaz Sharif’s brother. India thought there was a window to improve relations with Pakistan and had reached out to Nawaz Sharif. He had reciprocated very well before Gen Musharraf torpedoed that peace initiative. But on the ground, Pakistan’s military establishment and ISI complex – the Deep State – calls the shots. It matters very little who is the political face in Islamabad. It is just a democratic facade.

The Pakistan Army and ISI have been making a concerted effort to revive the terrorist movements both in J&K and Punjab. This is not a friendly act. India agreed to a ceasefire when they needed it most, when they were trying to take over Afghanistan. It was, perhaps, geostrategically rather short-sighted.

India has given Pakistan full opportunity to show if they would be interested in peace. Their economy is collapsing, the ethnic fault lines are most exacerbated and the political turmoil does not make it wise for Pakistan to have India on the wrong side.

Does India Have the Capacity?

If India were to execute the march north to Gilgit-Baltistan, the armed forces would realise that mountains eat up troops. The Indian Army is already stretched with its deployment in Northern Command on the LAC versus China. on the LOC and the AGPL. Huge number of troops are deployed but they are stretched to control the area in their possession.

Military operations of attack require the forces to have at least a 3-to-1 superiority with a lot of fire power to be able to capture an objective like a hill or a dominating ground the ration goes up. If a battalion is holding a feature, then a brigade level attack goes in, if a brigade is holding it, then at least a division is required. In the case of mountains even higher troop levels are required.

The idea to capture Skardu-Gilgit was first mooted by Gen Sunderji as the Army chief while planning exercise Brasstacks. Ravi Rikhi in his book “1984 The Fourth Round”, suggested that operational model but it never happened for a variety of political reasons.

Pakistan may be in political turmoil but the Army is still capable of holding its own in a defensive scenario. That territory is a conjunction between China’s steady in roads into the Northern Areas where the Chinese have invested at least $26 billion in four or five dams. They are going to invest more because water is part of China’s strategy for global dominance.

At the time of the Kargil War, prime minister Vajpayee in his wisdom did not allow the armed forces to cross Line of Control. Gen Musharraf went in to Kargil to divide the sanctity of the LoC. With these actions, the LoC got sanctified. World opinion will go against India if we cross the LoC at a time when prime minister Modi himself has maintained that this is not the era of wars. He said so about Chinese expansionism and he told Putin publicly on his actions in Ukraine.

Wars cost money and basic calculation is about Rs 5,000 crores upwards every week. Military operations are not only expensive, they have the knack of escalating out of control, no matter what the results of war gaming say. This operation is not going to finish in three days. Gen Sunderji told prime minister Rajiv Gandhi that Indian forces could finish off Sri Lanka’s problems in three days but the armed forces got stuck there for almost two years.

Echoing the views of the defence minister is fine, but the Corps Commanders, the Northern Army Commander and the Army Chief should privately and professionally caution the political leadership that rhetoric apart, a situation like 1962 must be avoided until the forces are fully prepared.

The Folly of War

The Pakistani Army have a tight grip over the entire POK and Northern Areas. There is no real political freedom in either of the two regions and the military establishment calls the shots. Although liberation of Kashmir is a misnomer, Pakistanis are made to believe that they will fight for Kashmiris and their ‘freedom’.

If the Indian armed forces are to carry out any operations in Pok or in Gilgit-Baltistan, it would be a declaration of war. It will not be a Limited War but an all-out war under a nuclear overhang. We cannot adopt a cavalier approach.

With the kind of involvement and involvement the Chinese have made in Pakistan, it will effectively mean a very active two-front situation. No general in any army ever wants to fight on two fronts simultaneously. A two-front war can only be a defensive one.

The defence minister has, perhaps, rattled the cage, not so much because of some domestic political dividend but to put the Pakistanis on the defensive. In the past the Pakistanis kept talking about and threatening to wrest Kashmir from India. India was always seen to be on the defensive.

It will put the Pakistanis on the backfoot and rattle them into thinking that India might do something like that However, seen in the larger context, the defence minister statement was incongruent to what the prime minister Modi told the Russian president that “this is not an era of war.”

India should not fight a war, which it has not won already. In the 1971 War, India had already won the world when it started fighting. It is also important to enhance comprehensive National Power before engaging in any aggressive action.

India is rising but it has a multitude of problems. While there is no need to keep quiet and show that we have the prowess, and put the enemy on the defensive, it is quite another to start exercising that voice. It must be considered that the enemy’s economy will sink but what happens to your own economy at time must also be considered.

Initiating war under a nuclear environment, with a two-front situation, when the when the world is in a flux would be a folly, which is best avoided.

Voids Must Be Made Up

In the last two years of Covid pandemic, India armed forces stopped all recruitment. Sixty thousand men go out every year on pension. We are about 1,50,000 to 2,00,000 lakh troops short in the Indian army right now. Recruitment of Agniveers has opened up. The first step that is required is to speed up getting manpower, otherwise like Russia, we would start the conflict and then start mobilizing. In India, we have a major manpower versus equipment debate. Russia is not short of weapons but because of shortage of manpower they have been hit hard. There are clear lessons for us here.

War is the domain of risk. If you go back to the initial operations of the Second World War, when Hitler’s generals told him you cannot go. With the Blitzkrieg tactics he was able to bluff his way through.

If the armed forces are ordered to get the whole of POK, of course they have to prepare. The Air Force will have to come up to 45 squadrons, the Army will have to get the medium artillery induction speeded up. All shortages have to be made up.

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“We have noted this latest development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a media briefing here on Thursday while replying to a question from the official media.

“China’s position on the Kashmir issue is consistent and clear-cut. The Kashmir issue, a dispute left from the past, should be peacefully and properly addressed in accordance with the UN Charter, Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreement,” Zhao said.

He said the “parties concerned need to avoid unilateral moves that may complicate the situation. Efforts should be made to settle the dispute through dialogue and consultation so as to maintain regional peace and stability.”

Stating that the G20 is a premier forum for international economic and financial cooperation, Zhao said, “we call on all major economies to focus on steady recovery of the world economy, avoid politicising relevant cooperation and make positive contributions to improving global economic governance.”

Asked whether China, a member of G20, would attend the meeting to be held in 2023, he said, “We will look at whether China will attend the meeting.”

To another question that China is building the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in the disputed region in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and India’s objections over it, Zhao said the “two matters are completely different in nature. China has undertaken some projects in Pakistan to help it grow its economy and improve people’s livelihood.”

“These projects are in Pakistan-occupied areas of Kashmir,” Zhao said, perhaps a rare occasion when China has described PoK in this way.

“Relevant Chinese companies conduct the relevant projects with the purpose of helping Pakistan to develop its economy and improve people’s livelihood,” he said.

“This does not affect China’s position on the Kashmir issue,” he underlined.

On June 25, Pakistan said it rejected India’s attempt to hold a meeting of G20 countries in Kashmir, hoping that members of the grouping will be fully cognisant of the imperatives of law and justice and would oppose the proposal outright.

Jammu and Kashmir will be hosting the 2023 meetings of G-20, an influential grouping that brings together the world’s major economies, with the union territory administration last Thursday setting up a five-member high-level committee for overall coordination.

This will be the first major international summit expected to be held in Jammu and Kashmir after its special status guaranteed under Article 370 of the Constitution was withdrawn and the erstwhile state was divided into two union territories in August 2019.

Pakistan Foreign Office spokesperson Asim Iftikhar Ahmad said in a statement that Islamabad had taken note of news items appearing in the Indian media indicating that India might be contemplating to hold some G20-related meeting in Jammu and Kashmir.

“Pakistan completely rejects any such attempt by India,” Ahmad said.

He said it was a well-known fact that Jammu and Kashmir is an internationally recognised disputed territory between Pakistan and India, and has remained on the agenda of the United Nations Security Council for over seven decades.

He hoped that in case of any such controversial proposal from India, the G20 members will be fully cognisant of the imperatives of law and justice and would reject it outright.

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International and domestic observers, who were following the impact, if any, that was generated among the common mass in Pakistan and Kashmir regarding this “event”, have found that this year too, as has been the trend for some time now, KSD did not generate any traction on the ground.

KSD, according to Indian officials, was brought into being by GHQ, Rawalpindi with two intentions—to spread propaganda regarding a “free Kashmir” and use the same to instigate locals to take up arms.

According to official data seen by The Sunday Guardian, the number of public processions, rallies, special prayers or speeches in mosques in Kashmir that were frequent some years ago to mark this day, has gone down to zero. The decrease in the number of such “events” has coincided with the passing away of separatist Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Geelani and the abrogation of Article 370.

Officials said that due to the “massive focus” on carrying out development work in the valley since the last couple of years has also dissuaded local youths from participating in such propaganda events. “The difference in the standard of living and the level of infrastructure between Kashmir and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) is so stark that it is now being acknowledged by youths on both sides, and that is another reason that this KSD propaganda has lost whatever traction it used to have,” an official said.

On the Pakistan side, a scan of social media and traditional media by observers showed that the ordinary Pakistani too was not upbeat about KSD, which was termed by them as a state sponsored “antic” to deflect the attention of the Pakistani people from more pressing issues.

Officials in the security apparatus in Delhi told The Sunday Guardian that despite involving its embassies across the world, the strategists at GHQ were unable to achieve the result that they had hoped for regarding generating noise in support of KSD at a global level. The embassies were asked to conduct online events and debates, which generated an audience in two digits.

Official sources said that the Intercontinental hotel, Kabul refused to hold a KSD event following which the Pakistan mission in Kabul complained to the Afghan foreign ministry claiming that the hotel acted on the orders given by the Kabul government.

GHQ’s effort in Kabul witnessed another setback as even as the Pakistan embassy was celebrating KSD, a large number of Pashtuns assembled in front of the embassy and started protesting against the detention of Pashtun Tahafuz Movement leader, Manzoor Pashteen by Pakistani officials. As a result of the commotion, the embassy had to cancel the KSD event abruptly. According to watchers, the Pakistani civilian machinery, under the direction of GHQ, prevailed over local representatives of MNCs like Dominos, Hyundai, Toyota, Suzuki and Pizza Hut to put out messages on social media showing their support for KSD.

However, as soon as it came to the knowledge of their parent companies, that are based outside of Pakistan, all such messages were deleted, proving the propagandistic nature of KSD. All the parent companies issued multiple apologies and clarifications which further dismantled GHQ’s effort to portray KSD as a “pan-nation” sentiment. Details accessed by The Sunday Guardian show that the local administration in Pakistan occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) were asked to arrange for anti-India banners and gather people around it.

Despite pressure being put by the commander of the 10 Corps of Pakistan Army on the “Prime Minister” of PoK for not being able to organise enough noise against India’s 73rd Republic Day, the local PoK administration, despite its best efforts, was unable to bring a crowd for KSD too. Local policemen in civil clothes and women employee in local offices were asked to participate in the KSD events. But this too was resisted by locals in Bagh, Mong and Hajira, who called it a “Fraud day” while comparing the facilities in Srinagar and that in PoK.

The idea of KSD to portray negative image about India was first proposed by Jamaat-e-Islami leader Qazi Hussain Ahmed in 1990, which also got the support of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at that time and 5 February was declared as a public holiday to “express solidarity” with “Kashmir struggle for freedom”. GHQ Rawalpindi took up the responsibility of managing this event in 2004.

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The dam will be constructed on the River Indus in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) region. When completed in 2028, the Diamer Bhasha dam, China’s first major civil engineering scheme in Kashmir, will have a 272-metre-high barrage, making it the tallest roller-compacted concrete dam in the world. The project will be part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), itself part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

It will have a generating capacity variously given as 4.8GW and 6GW, and will be situated in the region of Gilgit-Baltistan, about 320km from the Chinese border. As well as power, the dam will create a 200 sq km reservoir, greatly increasing Pakistan’s water security.

The first phase of the dam, worth $2.8bn, has been awarded to a team made up of China’s Power Construction Corporation and FWO, with 70% going to the Chinese company.

Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), announced the project on 20 May. Pakistan government will provide 30% funding and “the rest will be arranged by the Wapda” – understood to be a reference to loans from China. The total cost of the project is expected to be US$8.8bn, but earlier a figure of $14bn had been quoted.

In 2016, the project was named as one of the projects in the China-Pakistan Economic corridor. However, in 2017, Pakistan backed out when the Chinese demanded 100% ownership of the completed asset.

The eight million acre feet (MAF) reservoir with 272-metre height will be the tallest roller compact concrete (RCC) dam in the world. It will have a spillway, 14 gates and five outlets for flushing out silt. The diversion system involves two tunnels and a diversion canal — all three having one kilometre length each. The bridge — a box girder structure — under the contract will be constructed downstream of the dam structure while the 21MW power plant will be built to meet energy requirements of the project during construction.

India’s Objections

India has raised objections to the project, partly on political and partly on engineering grounds. The engineering objection is based on the safety of such a tall roller-compacted dam in an earthquake zone. The political protest is over India’s claim that the project legitimises Gilgit-Baltistan as part of Pakistan’s sovereign territory.

India said that undertaking such projects in territories under Pakistan’s illegal occupation was not proper. The Ministry of External Affairs said, “Our position is consistent and clear that entire territory of the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh have been, are and will continue to be integral and inalienable part of India.”

“We have consistently conveyed our protests and shared concerns with both Pakistan and China on all such projects in the Indian territories under Pakistan’s illegal occupation,” it said.

China defended the contract to build the Diamer-Bhasha dam in POK despite objection from India, saying that it was part of a “win-win” bilateral cooperation to promote the well being of the local population.

According to WAPDA, “In the event that the dam bursts at its proposed height of 272m during a routine seismic movement, 10 cubic kilometres of water, with the destructive power of a hydrogen bomb, will wipe out everything on the Indus all the way down to Sukkur.”

Roller-compacted dams use a blend of concrete in which fly ash is substituted for Portland cement, reducing the risk of thermal cracking during construction. The highest dam built so far using the method is the Gilgel Gibe III Dam in Ethiopia, at 250m.

Kohala Hydropower Project

China will also set up a 1,124-MW Kohala hydropower project in POK under the multi-billion-dollar CPEC despite India’s objection to it. The details of the project were presented in the 127th meeting of the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) on 1 June.

A tripartite agreement has been finalised among China’s Three Gorges Corporation, the authorities in PoK and the PPIB to implement the project under the CPEC framework.

The project will be built on the Jhelum River and aims at annually providing more than five billion units of clean and low-cost electricity for consumers in Pakistan. The paper further reported that this marked one of the largest investments of $2.4 billion in an independent power producer (IPP) in the region.

The 3,000-km-long CEPC is aimed at connecting China and Pakistan with rail, road, pipelines and optical cable fiber networks. It connects China’s Xinjiang province with Pakistan Gwadar port, providing access to China to the Arabian Sea. The CPEC passes through PoK, over which India has conveyed its protests to China.

WAPDA has awarded a consultancy contract of the project to Diamer Basha Consultants Group (DBCG) worth 27.182 billion rupees ($168.8 million). DBCG joint venture comprises 12 top-ranked national and foreign consulting firms — Nespak (Pakistan), Associate Consulting Engineers (Pakistan), Mott MacDonald Pakistan, Poyry (Switzerland), Montgomery Watson and Harza (MWH) International-Stantec (USA), Dolsar Engineering (Turkey), Mott McDonald International (England), China Water Resources Beifang Investigation, Design and Research Company (China), Mirza Associates Engineering Services (Pakistan), Al-Kasib Group of Engineering Services (Pakistan), Development Management Consultant (Pakistan) and MWH Pakistan, with Nespak as the lead firm. These firms have a vast experience of providing consultancy services for mega water projects the world over.

The Council of Common Interests (CCI) had approved the project for construction in 2010, but it suffered delays because of international lending agencies which remained associated with the project but later backtracked because of opposition from India. The government has already spent about Rs170 bn on the project since then on land acquisition and other expenses. In view of the lenders’ resistance, it was decided about four years ago to divide the multi-purpose project into two major components — Rs650 bn worth of dam project to be constructed with the public sector funds and Rs750 bn worth of power project most probably to be developed in independent power producer (IPP) mode at a later stage.

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Satellites Detect Chinese Naval Base Plans at Gwadar

Recent satellite images shows that several new complexes have been built in the last few years in the Gwadar port complex. One of them, identified as being used by a Chinese company involved in port development, has unusually high security. These are considered the first signs of a long-expected Chinese naval base at Gwadar in Pakistan.

The high-security compound has been identified as being used by the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC Ltd). This is a majority state-owned company that is heavily involved in many Chinese civil engineering projects. While some degree of security is normal in the region, the level of security seen here is extensive.

It has anti-vehicle berms, security fences and a high wall. Sentry posts and elevated guard towers cover the perimeter between the fence and the inner wall. This suggests armed guards with rifles.

China has good reason to focus on security. The region, near the border with Iran and Afghanistan, is facing a long-standing insurgency. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) seeks an independent state for the Baloch people. They carried out an attack on the Chinese Consulate in Karachi on November 23 2018, and on a hotel in Gwadar on May 11 2019. The latter attack targeted the Zaver Pearl-Continental 5-star Hotel, which is another centerpiece of Chinese investment in the town.

The high security compound is not alone. There are also two smaller sites built in the last year with rows of blue-roofed buildings. It has been suggested that these might be barracks for a Chinese Marine Corps garrison. China was reported to be deploying marines there back in March 2017. But the sites lack the level of security that would be expected. Whatever their exact purpose, their location and timing suggests that they are connected to the port expansion.

Located at the western end of Pakistan’s coast, Gwadar is expected to be a major port in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This will allow Chinese goods to shortcut through Pakistan, instead of sailing all the way around South Asia. China was first reported to be planning a naval base there in January 2018. While the plan has never been confirmed officially, it would be a natural path.

The base, to complement an elaborate one in Djibouti, would strengthen China’s foothold in the Indian Ocean.

Whether the Chinese naval base materializes remains to be seen. But these new sites, including the heavily defended compound, may indicate that the next phase of port construction is imminent. And if the Chinese Navy does begin using the port it will strengthen their capabilities in the Indian Ocean.

The post INDIA-PAKISTAN: China to Construct Dam on Indus River in POK appeared first on IMR.

Senator Mushahid Hussain is Chairman of Pakistan’s Parliamentary Committee on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and founding Chairman of the think tank Pakistan-China Institute. This is an abridged extract of an article which was first published in the Pakistan Army Green Boo 2020. The views expressed do not represent the views of IMR

After the annexation of Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IOJK), it is clear that Modi has bitten off more than he can chew by spawning a crisis that is hitting at the heart of the Indian State, transforming its very character in a manner that it’s narrow-minded, bigoted Establishment could never have anticipated.

Consider the consequences and far-reaching implications of this decision:

•             Modi has divided India on political and communal lines that can have grave implications for Indian national unity and domestic stability.

•             Kashmir has been internationalized in a manner that was never done to this extent not since the 1965 India-Pakistan War, with wholesale condemnation of the Indian action from Beijing to Brussels.

•             The Kashmir dispute has been discussed for the first time in the UN Security Council since the 1998 nuclear tests, when the UN Security Council, on June 6, 1998, passed the last unanimous Resolution # 1172, mentioning Kashmir by name: ”Urges India and Pakistan to resume dialogue between them on all outstanding issues… and encourages them to find mutually acceptable solutions that address the root causes of those tensions, including Kashmir”.

•             Modi’s move has galvanized separatists within India ranging from the Nagas who are now setting new pre-conditions in their talks with New Delhi, for example, seeking their”separate flag and constitution” as part of broader autonomy, while the Sikhs are actively campaigning for a Khalistan Referendum in 2020.

•             China has been alienated since China, now like Pakistan and the Kashmiri people, is directly a party to the dispute because of Modi’s action to partition IOJK and declaring Laddakh a Union Territory. It was, therefore, not surprising that high-powered Chinese Military Delegation that visited Pakistan on August 26, included the People’s Liberation Army Commander for ‘Southern Tibet’, the area on the Chinese side bordering India.

•             The worst possible consequences have been within IOJK where resistance to repression has been rising, with an unprecedented curfew and complete lockdown, complete cutoff of all communication, a situation that did not even prevail during the height of the siege of Stalingrad or Leningrad during World War II. 6000 Kashmir is have been arrested without any charges and sent outside IOJK to jails in India ranging from the octogenarian former Chief Minister Dr. Farooq Abdullah to young teenage girls whose only crime has been to talk of ‘Azadi’ (freedom).

•             While there is a lot of bluff and bluster in Indian posturing, even nuclear sabre-rattling with the August 16 statement of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh questioning the utility of India’s professed “No First Use” policy on nuclear weapons. The fact is that, deep down, the Indian Establishment, particularly the RSS gang led by Modi, combines a curious mixture of hatred and fear of Pakistan. They have what can be termed as a “Mehmood of Ghazni Complex”, in other words, a fear of the Muslim inclination to ‘go against the tide’ to challenge injustice and wrong irrespective of an unequal size or strength! Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni has always been a very fascinating figure for the Hindutva ideologues, who, for them, symbolises what they view as “Muslim hordes from the North” with the Pakistan State seen as his contemporary potential ‘successor’.

Modi, who is from Gujrat, also knows that the famous Somnath Temple, located in his State, was a favourite target of Sultan Mehmood of Ghazni. A deep-seated loathing of Sultan Mehmood is embedded in the Hindutva mindset. In 1978, when the then BJP Chief and Foreign Minister of India, Atal Behari Vajpayee, went on an official visit to Afghanistan, the only special request he made was to visit Ghazni. His Afghan hosts were surprised, they said ”Ghazni is just a small town, it’s not a tourist spot, it has no 5-star hotels, why would you wish to go to such a place?” Vajpayee said ‘Ghazni is like a thorn that continues to hurt us as Sultan Mehmood, the marauder who looted India several times, came from there!” Conversely, Allama Iqbal, who was invited by King Nadir Shah to visit Afghanistan in 1933, also requested for a special visit to Ghazni to pay homage to the memory of Sultan Mehmood, in whose honour he penned a few famous couplets. It is thus no accident that Modi declared his intention to “free India from1200 years of slavery” in his speech to the Indian Parliament on June 12, 2014. Clearly, Modi’s reference is to the period of Muslim domination in India as the British rule lasted for only 200 years.

For Pakistan, it should be clear that an existential threat is posed by Modi’s India as the annexation of IOJK is the most important development for South Asia since 1971, given that the geography of the region has been changed. Modi and his RSS gang are also fervent believers in the notion of “Akhand Bharat” (Greater India). So a fascist India will likely become more aggressive with Pakistan through low-intensity conflict, proxy wars, covert operations, threat of war and nuclear blackmail.

This situation should also be viewed in the context of the new global scenario where the balance of economic and political power is shifting from the West to the East. The 21st Century is an “Asian Century”, particularly China’s transition from a regional to a global power. Then there are makings of a New Cold War with the US National Security Strategy of 2018 terming China and Russia as a “more serious threat than Al Qaeda or ISIS”.

Therefore, Pakistan needs to understand the nature of the challenge posed by Modi’s move:

•             The challenge is multi-dimensional: military, diplomatic, media, legal, all of which require sustaining a long-term strategy over a protracted period for the rest of Modi’s term, at least 3-5 years.

•             70% of the battle is in the domain of public diplomacy and propaganda, the battle of narratives, the ‘battle of ideas’, through media, think tanks, NGOs/civil society, human rights groups, parliamentary diplomacy, keeping up the Kashmiri morale while promoting a cohesive and credible Pakistani narrative, which we can sell at home and abroad.

•             Clarity about the kind of enemy we are facing: this is the die-hard ideological Hindutva crowd who hate Muslims and Pakistan, who presided over the ethnic cleansing of over 2000 Muslims in India’s Gujrat State in 2002, who actually believe in ‘Akhand Bharat’, and who are proud successors of the killers of Mahatma Gandhi. They will give no quarter and we should have no illusions about them either, as they will goto any extent to damage Pakistan.

Given this context, Pakistan needs to pursue a multi-pronged strategy with a kind of clarity and commitment that Pakistani policy makers demonstrated while building the Nuclear Bomb. Once the decision was taken in 1974, the Bomb project was pursued to its logical conclusion in a relentless, single minded manner, irrespective of any pressures and it achieved success when Pakistan detonated its own homemade nuclear device on May 28, 1998, undoubtedly, Pakistan’s finest hour. Such a strategy should target Modi and his RSS gang, and separate them from the broader Indian society and polity that opposes Modi, along with a united front of all Kashmiris and the linkup of the Kashmiri resistance with other insurgencies inside India. Close coordination with China and the rest of the international community through a strategy sustained by national stamina are the need of the hour.

A good example of an unconventional approach is the legal initiative taken by the Kashmir-Khalistan Referendum Front in an American court of law. The 73-page law suit accuses Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah as well as IOJK Commander, Lt Gen Kanwaljeet Singh Dhillon, of carrying out “extra judicial killings, wrongful deaths, crimes against humanity” against Kashmiris. The law suit against the Indian Prime Minister was filed under a Federal American statute, Torture Victim Protection Act of 1991, which allows civil suits on US soil against foreign officials who have violated Human Rights. Similar law suits in European courts, which also have a universal jurisdiction on Human Rights, can embarrass and damage the Indian leadership and expose the crimes that are being committed by them in the IOJK.

For starters, the focus should be on a Pakistani narrative. Indian writer Arundhati Roy’s classic article in The New York Times of August 15, 2019,”Silence is the Loudest Sound” provides some useful pointers, since it says it all:

•             Modi’s annexation of IOJK has a “distinct whiff of colonialism in the air”.

•             ‘RSS is the State’ in Modi’s India.

•             ‘An Architecture of Indian fascism is quickly being put in place’ by Modi and the RSS gang.

•             “There has not been a single year since 1947 when the Indian Army has not been deployed within India’s borders against its ‘own people’. The list is long: IOJK, Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Hyderabad, Assam,…”

To meet this existential threat, Pakistan needs single-minded determination with clarity and commitment. Luckily, Pakistan has got strategic space to pursue the Kashmir cause for the next couple of years due to changes in the regional scenario:

•             Pakistan’s timely ‘course correction’ on the flawed Afghan policy of the past, reinforced by a clampdown on domestic extremism and militancy, Pakistan will no longer be caught in a ‘nutcracker’ like situation of being tied down both on the Western and Eastern borders.

•             President Trump has linked his re-election in2020 with the Afghan peace process in which Pakistan’s role is pivotal, hence, he feels that the road to the White House lies through Pakistan. Sooner than later, the Afghan peace talk will have to be revived.

•             Thanks to China, which is providing strategic “air cover” to Pakistan through CPEC, the Pakistan-China alliance will be further strengthened for the common cause of a joint strategy to counter India.

•             With the Gulf in turmoil and tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the last thing the International Community will want is a conflict between the two South Asian nuclear neighbours.               

After India’s annexation of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, the future course of events will depend on three factors. First, while the Indian attempt is to seek a semblance of ‘normalcy’ through the diktat of their bayonets and bullets, with almost a million men under arms trying to enforce the annexation as a fait accompli. The Kashmiri determination to seek “Azadi” which is undeterred by any kind of force, will certainly supercede India’s ‘might is right’ approach as historically ‘right is might’.

Second, Pakistan, as the principal defender of the Kashmiri people and leading exponent of the Kashmir cause, must maintain the resolve and stamina to sustain a long term strategy of supporting the Kashmiri people and resisting Indian hegemony so that the status quo, which is untenable and unacceptable to the Kashmiri people, is changed. Third, the China factor would be key in any strategy as China, being Pakistan’s strategic partner provides Pakistan an entry into the international system, especially the UN Security Council, the G-20 and the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

China’s leadership role in world affairs is a plus for Pakistan after having made the successful transition from a regional power to a global power. As Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi stated on March 18, 2019 during his meeting with his Pakistani counterpart: “no matter how things change in the world and the region, China will firmly support Pakistan in upholding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and dignity”.

The China factor is also pivotal for two reasons in the context of Kashmir. China’s voice matters in the councils of power globally and when China speaks for Kashmir, that voice is heard loud and clear. An assertive China now has a global voice that resonates in key world capitals. As President Xi Jinping told the Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 18, 2017 that “China has now become a great power in the world and it is time for us take centre stage in the world and to make a greater contribution to humankind.”

The other factor is China’s growing military might which was on display during the massive October 1, 2019, Chinese National Day military parade in Beijing, which shows that China now has the military prowess as well as the political will and the economic clout to pursue its interests in the region and the world. A key component of those interests is China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan which, as the China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on September 24, 2019, is “unbreakable”.

The biggest challenge for Pakistani policymakers is going to be on the military front as India’s international image has suffered badly because of Modi’s August 5 blunder and for the first time in30 years, the situation in IOJK is not being blamed on Pakistan, rather the onus is on Indian actions alone. The Indian Establishment, including their military high command and the RSS gang might wish to divert attention away from their own follies and crimes in IOJK and shift the onus on Pakistan either via a “false flag” operation or even a tactical military move on the Line of Control. Such threats have been openly hurled by the Indian military brass. For example, General Bipin Rawat, the Indian Army Chief told the Indian media on September 30 that “if we have to go across (the LOC), we will through the air or the ground route or both. The red line has been very clearly drawn as to what will be the future course of action” and in the same interview, he repeated the canard about “Pakistani terror training camps in Balakot”.

History teaches us that military might cannot crush a people’s will to be free. Vietnam, Afghanistan, racist South Africa and America’s own experience of ‘shock and awe’ in the post 9/11 period are instructive examples of failures of brute force to subjugate a people determined to resist. On August 5, Modi used a tried, tested and failed formula, deploying 900,000 armed men to browbeat 8 million defenceless but resilient and defiant Kashmiris. He assumed, like the Americans did in Iraq in 2003, that it would be a ‘cakewalk’.

Like others of his ilk, that decision has boomeranged and Modi’s India is bound to get stuck and sink in the Kashmir quagmire. This action is a precursor of new challenges and opportunities for Pakistan to seize and to pursue a clear doable strategy that best preserves, protects and promotes the interests of Pakistan and the Kashmir cause that we as a Nation are committed to espouse. Above all, it is a test of our leadership and the mettle of our people. As the Quaid-e-Azam said: ”Let it not be said that we did not prove ourselves equal to the task”.

The post Pak View on India’s “Annexation” of Kashmir appeared first on IMR.

Farzana Shah is a Peshawar based journalist. This is an abridged extract of an article which was first published in the Pakistan Army Green Book 2020. The views expressed do not reflect the views of IMR

On August 5th, 2019 India unilaterally revoked Article 370 of its Constitution which promised autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, i.e., Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK). This unlawful decision with its dire pending consequences has triggered an outrage, not only in the region but also at the global level. The entire state has been put under siege with total communication blackout, enforced by deploying thousands of fresh troops. Over 3000 political figures including former chief ministers of the state were arrested under so-called Public Safety Act (PSA).

India also divided the state into two; an act through which she changed the geography of the disputed land, hence practically ending the 1971 Simla Agreement. This agreement has remained a critical milestone for both Pakistan and India, as it was this agreement based upon which both countries established what the world later on recognized as Line of Control (LoC). Not only that, August 5th action also undermined the very foundation of Indian constitution, as Article 370 was obliterated without the essentially required consent of state government and that’s why this action was not a constitutional reform, but a blatant coup in total disregard to the pending UNSC resolutions /UN Charter.

Modi government with full backing from hardliner Hindu groups, abolished IOJK’s autonomous status under a fabricated security threat perception to conceal the real intent. Pak-US peace overtures in Afghanistan had made Delhi very nervous because of the simple fact that any settlement between the US and Taliban would have enabled Pakistan to move almost 200,000 of its troops or at least a large number of these to its eastern borders in Kashmir and elsewhere. Indian desperation to counter Pakistan and limit her growing role in Afghan peace process led to such an abrupt abrogation of special status of IOJK and this timing was no coincidence.

Media reports suggest the Indian intelligence agencies were desperately waiting for this opportunity to strike. Delhi had sensed that a possible deal managed by Pakistan for US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan could eventually renew US military assistance for Pakistan.

Reportedly, to scuttle Afghan peace deal and legitimize Indian stance over Kashmir, Indian spy agency RAW’s new chief Samant Goel called on Narendra Modi on July 5th, 2019 and apprised him of the plan to abolish the Article 370 for IOJK. Preparations for the move were already in place in Delhi as a number of high profile military and intelligence visits were made to IOJK including those by RAW’s chief Goel, Indian NSA Ajit Doval and Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat in the months preceding August 2019. On July 24, Doval also held a meeting with Indian military chiefs and heads of all three intelligence agencies including National Technical Research Organization (NTRO), in the same context.

Media also reported that India had flown Israeli Heron drones across the Pir Panjal range to rehearse controlling mob in case of protesteruption3; military aircrafts made a number of sorties flying relief supplies including food, water and medicines into the Valley for the Indian troops.

After Indian decision of obliteration of Article 370, LoC has become potential conflict with Pakistan under the nuclear overhang because of the simple fact that Delhi has changed the goalpost for future talks on Kashmir. According to Indian leadership, now talks will be on Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Post August 5th environment suggests that India with obliteration of Article 370 actually risked a high intensity insurgency in an already volatile state of IOJK; something India could not have done alone without external backing.

Pakistan’s Current National Security

Predicaments Developments in IOJK are neither random nor isolated as far as their impact on Pakistan’s national security is concerned. It is a dilemma imposed by our geography that Pakistan cannot stay isolated from regional developments. Even in some cases, extra regional developments also impact Pakistan’s security milieu; fast evolving situation in Middle East and ongoing trade war between US and China, are cases in point.

United Nations on April 21, 1948 adopted Kashmir resolution after India took the issue to the UN under article 35 of Chapter VI. Kashmir was declared disputed territory and call for a plebiscite was made as the said chapter outlines the means for a peaceful settlement of disputes. The shadowy annexation of IOJK by India and insistence upon

its fabricated history has resulted in 3 out of4 Indo-Pak wars. With current clampdown on basic human rights in IOJK, there is a clear and present danger of yet another round of conflict. LoC is already red hot; both countries are already exchanging artillery fire. Earlier, in February 2019,both sides deployed air power. India lost 2 fighter jets on 27/2 with one pilot becoming POW; who was immediately returned by Pakistan as a goodwill gesture.

India is desperate to get a role in the region, belittling what Pakistan has been doing for regional stability. This is critical for India to present Pakistan as a perpetrator of global terror, while fact is Pakistan has been the biggest victim of non-state actors’ actions within and without.

Two most important strategic goals of India are:

•             Bigger role, both in the region and world.

•             Solving Kashmir through UNSC resolutions, but after changing its demography to ensure a win. Solving Kashmir will pave the way for permanent UNSC seat; vital prerequisite for India to embark on Akhand Bahart agenda of RSS.

Indian threat has been intensified even more after August 5, 2019. Kashmir has dominated the security debate as it’s going to impact both internal and external security dynamics. How things will unfold in coming weeks and months, depends on how Pakistan formulates and executes its strategy on Kashmir.

Apart from the traditional foe in the east, the country has been fighting an endless war on the west, which despite clear gains, remains a perpetually bleeding front albeit with reduced fatalities.

Notwithstanding these obvious kinetic threats, Pakistan’s security landscape is inevitably affected by certain other factors as well, like peaceful rise of China and her ensuing trade war with the US, culmination of US’ longest war in history in Afghanistan and growing strategic competition around various parts of Asia including South China Sea, Indian Ocean, North Korea, and stand-off between US allies in Strait of Hurmuz against Iran. All these geopolitical development swill directly or indirectly impact Pakistan. Hence, it is likely to continue to be in the eye of global security storm due to its geography and may continue to suffer if not steered wisely.

Pakistan’s Significance to China

Chinese trillion-dollar Belt & Road Initiative(BRI) is pivotal for turning China into a world commercial empire. The region of Azad Jammu and Kashmir gains unprecedented importance in the wake of US-China emerging geopolitical competition worldwide. US wants to hit CPEC just like India for almost similar reasons; CPEC has in fact comprehensively demolished the US envisaged strategic encirclement of China in South China Sea, notwithstanding US quadrilateral alliance with Japan, Australia, and India. Idea was that CPEC brings global connectivity to China, so that Beijing can invest hundreds of billions of US dollars in its reserves to reignite the growth engine, which has slowed down during last 5-7 years (from10% annual to 6.5%). Beijing has plans to expand BRI to 70 countries and CPEC remains a critical part of this Chinese enterprise. Road to China’s strive for challenging American dominance passes through CPEC.

Apart from this economic dimension, the north eastern region of IOJK is attractive due to its close proximity to Russia, China and Pakistan. The Indian action in IOJK gives the US deep state an opportunity for furthering its own scheme of geopolitical maneuvering in Afghanistan, which is instrumental in containing Russia-China-Pakistanat the same time.

While US has remained stranded in Afghan quagmire, China’s BRI has been helping Beijing in positioning China to rise peacefully as a peace broker to the conflict zones like Afghanistan and Iraq in near future through trade compulsions. These very aspects substantiate the growing geostrategic prominence of Pakistan /Kashmir.

The changing geopolitics has forced Pakistan to adopt a more robust offensive maritime policy, apart from safeguarding its interests attached to land component of CPEC. Pakistan Navy has embarked on an ambitious project of acquiring eight submarines along with multiple advanced naval ships. All these may help restore some balance of power in South Asia /IOR.

China – India – Pakistan Paradigm

Recent, Sino-India skirmishes in Doklam went full circle in locking both the nuclear powers into a possible warlike situation. India has recently expressed her envisioned two front war strategy, which basically relies on the premise of preventing Chinese ingress across the LAC amid a high intensity short lived Indo-Pak conflict adopting Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). After initial denial, the top Indian military brass has not only publically acknowledged its presence, but has also hinted at considering unleashing CSD against Pakistan.

Indian aggressive attempts to outmaneuver Pakistan’s nuclear threshold forced it to adopt a full spectrum deterrence posture, while retaining/displaying the resolve to adopt policy of first use. Though it carries a great promise of strategic stability, but still there is a sizeable Indian defense intelligentsia that conceives this as a weakness in conventional balance of power, hence sees an opportunity of a limited, high-intensity conflict aimed at shallow gains across LoC/IB. This community of India is of the view that such gains will serve a devastating blow to Pakistan’s national morale. Indian strategy is to choke Pakistan economically, while raising cost of its deterrence by triggering an arms race.

Adding current volatile situation in IOJK into above discussed strategic contest between conventional Indo-Pak militaries and growing US-China wrestling for dominance, it would be safe to assume that the probability of an armed conflict in this region was never this high in last 72 years, as it is now.

Critical Appraisal of Pakistan’s Response Strategy

Let us begin with the most critical question, i.e., if all these preparations as highlighted in earlier part of this discourse were underway in India, why Pakistan remained oblivious to these developments about IOJK or was it caught totally unaware /surprised like rest of the World? A critical and candid appraisal is needed.

It would be safe to assume that Pakistan missed the opportunity to preempt and did very little or nothing before August 5th on diplomatic and media fronts to expose and pressurize India. Whatever and wherever it reacted, it did once unilateral annexation of IOJK by Modi had already occurred.

In the wake of Indian move over IOJK, Pakistan repeatedly reiterated its intention to undertake preventive measures to counter threats hurled by India. Such a move had always been seen by the US and her allies as jeopardizing War on Terror, a metrics which puts Pakistan at a crucial position with regard to peace in the region. The equation exhibits importance of Kashmir conflict and consequences of Indian attempt of redrawing map of erstwhile Jammu & Kashmir for the world peace and stability.

On international fora, India always presented Kashmir as a bilateral issue, supposed to be solved under Simla Agreement at bilateral level without any third party intervention. While on the bilateral level, Indian policy on Kashmir is immoveable as it always maintains that Kashmir is an integral part of Union, hence no bilateral dialogue is possible. On the contrary, India showed willingness to discuss Azad Jammu Kashmir and Northern Areas(parts of heretofore Kashmir state) of Pakistan for which nation gave blood in 1947-48 to liberate from the clutches of Dogra Raj; putting added pressure on our diplomacy.

Despite the fact that since 9/11 Pakistan’s security challenges have grown manifold, it has made abundantly clear that Pakistan cannot and will not remain oblivious from what goes on inside the Kashmir valley; any undertakings however, demand a comprehensive understanding of the total security paradigm. Pakistan will have to work pro actively and diplomatically support the indigenous KFM, else the state will be dragged into yet another regional conflict with India, giving her the advantage to choose time and place of her liking.

Notwithstanding initial surprise, post August 5th Pakistan’s political leadership has repeatedly and quite forcefully warned the World at large about the potential threat to global peace emerging from regional conflict in Kashmir in near future; it’s a nuclear flashpoint that has the latent potential to engulf the entire world.

Geo-Strategic Implications

Strategically speaking, the clash of interests among big powers alone makes Kashmir a bone of contention; contested directly by three nuclear powers (intrinsically linked are the strategic interests of two extra regional nuclear powers i.e. US, Russia).

Gilgit-Baltistan region has for centuries been the most vital part of Jammu and Kashmir. It is now a key part of CPEC, the cornerstone of China-Pakistan axis and the flagship project of China’s BRI for global trade domination; it aims at connecting South Asia with Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East /Africa; the shortest route from Arabian Sea ports of Karachi and Gwadar.

The growing competition in different fields(fanning economies and military insecurities) is forcing China and India to gain access to energy rich CARs. International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) was envisioned by India as alternative to CPEC. This corridor connects CAR to Iran and to India through Arabian Sea. Obviously, the route is not only much costlier due to its length, but also tremendously insecure as it goes through Iran and Persian Gulf, regions far from stable for long term investments and economic activities. The only alternative short and direct route for India passes through Azad Kashmir and Pakistan’s northern areas. Sooner or later, India will make a move to extend its jurisdiction over this area; current overture in IOJK may have this latent desire imbedded in it.

Apart from economic and strategic dimensions, Kashmir issue has become a cultural and social question as well.

Modi is planning to change the religious demography of IOJK, through ethnic cleansing and Hindu settlements in disputed territory on the lines of Jewish settlements by Israel. This drive itself is being fueled by right-wing Hindutva gangs, who have taken over India and have completely distorted her secular face. Hindutva ideology, much like Hitler’s Nazism, believes in supremacy of their own faith and considers all minorities in India as impure and hence, must be culled from Indian soil.

Modi appealed to the Indian society to”embrace Kashmiris” on Independence Day. It was sensible from both the domestic and international perspectives. But the news coming out of IOJK and even from mainland India, indicates that Hindutva’s control over Indian society has put Indian minorities in grave danger. Lynching of Muslims and Kashmiri students even within Indian cities has become new normal. This explains why Modi was compelled to ensure a complete media clampdown in the IOJK. Apart from that, Modi is now faced with severe internal pressure to act against Pakistan on AJK.

Apropos, it is beyond any doubt that the current fascist regime in India has nefarious designs against Pakistan /Muslims. Ruling RSS/ VHP/BJP has built anti-Muslim/anti-Pakistan sentiment so hard in Indian mainstream media and public discourse that BJP will have to continue undertaking some sort of anti-Pak overtures every now and then, to stay in power; hence current misadventure should not be taken as last.

Possible Emerging Scenarios and their Impact on Pakistan’s National Security

It is evident from the analysis so far that an Indo-US-Israel nexus is at play against Pakistan at multiple levels to close the Kashmir chapter once and for all. Hence, it is now prudent to examine the possible outcomes of Indian political discourse vis-à-vis Pakistan (Table Opposite).

A critical appraisal of the above scenarios suggests that Pakistan will have to walk a very thin line to fight for the Kashmir cause. Biggest challenge is that Pakistan will have to take the initiative and yet not to be seen as an aggressor as per international law. Having tested Pakistan’s response in February 2019, India may not escalate the situation along LoC any further than routine ceasefire violations, without consolidating control over IOJK. India’s best bet in current scenario is to maintain status-quo with a complete information and media control on developments inside IOJK particularly in the valley. This is where Pakistan will have to respond along with aggressive, non-apologetic and bold diplomacy. Proactive Foreign Office (FO) will produce results. If Pakistan keeps waiting for Indian action to react; Islamabad will be playing a losing game from the very onset.

Policy Recommendations

So far, Pakistan has given a standard response to Indian action of August 5th. Prevailing security crisis however, demands a robust and out of box solution, and that too in quick time. International community at best, will not go beyond condemning India over human rights violations in IOJK. In order to do that Pakistan will have to take the war into non-kinetic domains:

•   Information / Cyber Warfare

•   Electronic Warfare (EW) Spectrum

Relevant establishments must provide support to diplomatic efforts being done by government through operations in these two domains with focused goal of extracting authentic information from stakeholders in IOJK most importantly from general public facing the brutalities of Indian oppressive forces. Once information gathered, FO must disseminate it with proper narrative of the state of Pakistan.

A single video clip or picture can change the perception of India, which it has built so painstakingly over the years. Pakistan needs to keep world attention on IOJK and in order to do that communication links inside the valley must be established. Indian decision of communication blackout in IOJK was not random, but part of the planning. Pakistan’s response in these two domains will be purely non-kinetic, denying any involvement of arms. If executed properly anda local uprising occurs inside IOJK, it will make it extremely difficult for India to keep selling the terrorism card on IOJK. Burhan Wani was a local hero, India could not blame his action on Pakistan. Only a native uprising will be just and politically defendable for Pakistan on international forums. Even such an uprising will need support in the information domain.

EW Spectrum would be critical as it will enable Pakistan to keep Indian preparation in check. There is a possibility that India creates a deception in IOJK and opens war across IB on a spot like Pakistan’s soft-belly (Rahim Yar Khan – Kashmore) to sever Karachi from rest of Pakistan. There are rumors suggesting similar planning going on in Indian military headquarters; Pakistan must take requisite safeguards.

Pakistan must also keep refining standard diplomatic response along with taking into consideration above mentioned suggestions. Few areas where improvement can be made are mentioned below:

•             Pakistan, according to UN charter, can openly help Kashmiris in their fight. Indian intervention in East Pakistan and recent Syrian conflict between Russia and the US are clear examples.

•             India may try to capture areas 5 to 7 km inside AJK to make claim on the area. Pakistan army must have own similar plans and be executed preemptively.

•             Question of Kashmir must be debated among legislators on regular basis so that policy can be kept proactive rather than calling session of parliament on special occasions. Kashmir’s importance as vital strategic national interest must be seen by whole nation. Kashmir demands and deserves more pragmatism than emotional outburst.

•             Pakistan’s foreign policy needs more consistency, more inclusiveness of security institutions and constant review of emerging developments around the world particularly in South Asia.

•             Kinetic intervention from Pakistan has proven counter-productive as far as larger goals of Kashmir’s freedom is concerned. It created problems locally as well. State must adopt transparent policy in this regard. Proscribed organizations must remain ineffective and immobile.

•             Pakistan must establish a dedicated and permanent desk at FO focused on human rights violation in India against minorities. These efforts must be driven not by shallow patriotism, but true humanitarian grounds. In this regard, contacts must be established with oppressed groups within Indian society. This desk must be tasked to constantly arranging seminars and programs for this single purpose. Kashmir Committee must work along with this desk.

•             Especial efforts must be put on proactive diplomacy on Kashmir in P-5 nations. Pakistan embassies must conduct seminars, conferences and round tables with local intellectuals about Indian oppression in the valley.

Conclusion

Indian government has gravely endangered the global peace by unilaterally changing the status of disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir. Due to RSS/BJP actions in IOJK, future of 8 million Kashmiri Muslims is at stake with a probability of their systematic genocide or forced exodus from their native land. The subsequent strategic situation demanded an appraisal to assess the way forward for the state. This paper is an attempt in the same direction. It argued and examined various vertices of Kashmir’s geography, its linkage with national security and impacts of various policy options. Pakistan will have to act proactively. Standard diplomatic response will not be enough and a delay in decisive line of action will be suicidal.

Pakistan must ensure regional peace by adopting an aggressive and just policy on Kashmir, while also ensuring that state must not be seen as aggressor till the time an armed conflict with India becomes inevitable. Information and EW Spectrum domains must be explored for non-kinetic operations against Indian political and military leadership so that Pakistan can expose Indian atrocities and can achieve higher moral ground before any open conflict.

The post Pak View of Emerging Geopolitical Scenario Post Article 370 Abrogation appeared first on IMR.

Handwara Operation

In the Army’s best traditions, Colonel Ashutosh Sharma, a decorated commanding officer of a Rashtriya Rifles battalion, along with company commander Maj Anuj Sood, two other soldiers and a policeman laid down their lives in a fierce encounter with terrorists at Chanjimulla area of Handwara in north Kashmir’s Kupwara district on 2 May.

Two terrorists were killed in the encounter, one of whom was identified as top Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander Haidar alias Iqbal, a resident of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. They were part of a large group of Pakistani infiltrators who had sneaked into Kashmir through the Wadarbala-Rajwara forests in Kupwara in April. Col Sharma and his team reached the site after receiving reports that civilians were being held hostage in a house by terrorists. The Army officers were leading a team to rescue civilians who had been taken hostage by the terrorists.

Kishtwar Encounter

In a gunfight in Kishtwar district, on 17 April, two militants were slain. They had killed a Special Police Officer and injured another near Dacchan a week earlier, before decamping with their weapons. The weapons were recovered after the encounter near Sounder village.

In another encounter at Dairoo village in South Kashmir’s Shopian the same day two militans killed. 

Keran Gunfight

The Army suffered its biggest casualties in a day since the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammau & Kashmir (J&K), on 5 April. It was foiling an infiltration bid at a high-altitude pass on the Line of Control (LoC) at Shalbatoo, in the Jumgund area of the Keran sector in Kupwara in north Kashmir, in tough terrain and bad weather.

Five members of the elite para unit – 4 Para – and five militants were killed in the fierce hand-to-hand combat and gunfight in the snowbound Ringdori forest area of Keran, 120 km from Srinagar. The unit took part in the 2016 cross-LoC surgical strikes in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

The special forces troopers, who had been air dropped near the LoC after information on the infiltrators was received, were found just six feet away from the terrorists, who they eliminated in an intense battle when the search party found them . They had infiltrated across the LoC from Qasim-II post in PoK and were headed to the Gulab Post on the Indian side.

At least three of the five terrorists gunned down on April 5 in the Keran sector belonged to Jammu & Kashmir and had gone across the border to Pakistan for training in 2018. Five AK-47 rifles, grenades, and GPS and wireless sets were recovered from the encounter site.

Kulgam Gunfight

A day earlier, on 4 April, four terrorists of Hizbul Mujahideen (HuM) responsible for killing several civilians were shot dead by security forces in a shootout in Kulgam district of Jammu & Kashmir. Two soldiers of the Indian Army were also injured in the encounter, which took place in Hardmand Guri village of Kulgam. The house in which the terrorists were held up was demolished.

Army’s Response

The army responded to the unprovoked ceasefire violation and the killing of Special Forces commandos, on 10 April, by targeting Pakistani positions across the LoC in the Keran sector with artillery guns and caused severe damage to posts, terror launch pads and an ammunition dump in PoK.

A 48-second video clip released showed heavy and precision artillery blasting some positions, including an ammunition dump that was seen exploding in a huge ball of fire. It was a message to Pakistan that nothing goes unpunished.

The assault on terror launch pads at Dudhnial facing the Keran sector killed eight terrorists and 15 Pakistan Army soldiers. There was an effort to camouflage the extent of the casualties on the Pakistani side.

It was from Dudhnial that the five terrorists neutralised by the Indian Army special forces in the Keran sector on April 5 had been launched.

The Indian Army had no option since credible information suggested that nearly 160 terrorists of mixed tanzeems – LeT, Jaish e Mohammed and HuM – were waiting in the area to infiltrate into Kashmir.

At least one terror launch pad, among other targets, was apparently “completely destroyed” in the firing by the Indian Army, which used 105mm field guns as well as 155mm Bofors howitzers.

Defence minister Rajnath Singh, on 19 April, said the Indian Army was carrying out “targeted strikes” on terror launch pads along the LoC in Jammu & Kashmir and eliminating the Pakistani infiltrators before they crossed over to the Indian side.

“As you would have gathered from the operations along the LoC in the last two weeks, we are dominating the enemy through targeted intelligence based strikes on their launch pads and eliminating them before they set foot on Indian soil,” Singh said.

Comments

Dispite the coronavirus (Covid-19) panedemic spreading in Pakistan, there has been a spike in incidents across the LoC suggested that the operations to foment trouble in Kashmir – by first radicalising locals in Valley; then getting them to cross over for weapons training with terror groups such as the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed and HM; and then sending them back to wage war in India. There were attempts to smuggle assault rifles across LoC to supply to foreign and local terrorists in the Valley. Other moves which include propping up smaller indigenous armed groups, were linked with retaliation against India for the August 2019 nullification of Article 370.

Pakistan often resorts to ceasefire violations to push militants into the Indian side. Indian troops have also been retaliating to Pakistani actions under its policy of hot pursuit.

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