For most of the 20th Century, military advantage was purchased with money that only states could spend. Stealth coatings, satellite constellations, cryptographic systems, and precision-guided munitions were the products of defence budgets, classified laboratories, and export-controlled supply chains. That world is receding. A growing share of the technology that now decides battlefield outcomes—commercial drones, small satellites, foundation models, quantum computing, and advanced semiconductors—is developed first for civilian markets and only later adapted for war. The direction of technology transfer has quietly reversed, and with it, the advantage once enjoyed by states that could out-invest their rivals in military-specific research is eroding in ways that are difficult to see and harder to reverse.

This erosion is not dramatic. It does not resemble the loss of a battle or the collapse of a treaty. It shows up instead as a widening gap between what a nation’s defence establishment assumes it can do and what a determined adversary, or even a non-state actor with a credit card, can now do as well. Understanding which technologies are driving this shift, how the erosion actually happens, why it has accelerated now, and what a state such as India can do about it is the purpose of this paper.

The Technologies to Watch

Seven categories of dual-use technology deserve close and continuing attention:

• Drones and small unmanned systems. The same motors, cameras, radios, batteries, and flight electronics that power hobbyist drones now underpin tactical ISR platforms and loitering munitions. The crossover is strongest at the small end of the market, where mass-produced commercial components give attackers scale and cost advantages that were unimaginable a decade ago.
• Commercial space and satellite communications. Earth-observation constellations built for agriculture and insurance now provide targeting-grade imagery, while broadband constellations built for rural connectivity now carry military command traffic. A synthetic aperture radar satellite produces the same picture whether the customer is a farmer or an intelligence agency.
• Artificial intelligence and foundation models. Computer vision, autonomous navigation, and large language models developed for consumer and enterprise use now underpin drone targeting, signals analysis, and battlefield decision support. Much of this capability is openly published or commercially licensed rather than classified.
• Quantum computing. Still immature as a computing platform, quantum research already threatens the cryptographic backbone of secure military communications. Adversaries can capture encrypted traffic today and decrypt it once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available—a strategy known as harvest now, decrypt later.
• Advanced semiconductors. The chips that train frontier AI models and the chips that guide precision munitions increasingly come from the same fabrication lines, making export control an exercise in chasing a single, fungible commodity across a globalised supply chain.
• Cyber and offensive intrusion tools. Commercially sold spyware and intrusion frameworks, built and marketed as lawful-intercept or security-testing products, have repeatedly ended up enabling state-level surveillance and sabotage operations well outside their advertised use case.
• Additive manufacturing and precision electronics. Desktop and industrial 3D printers, combined with widely available design files, allow small workshops to produce drone airframes, munition components, and jigs that once required a dedicated defence-industrial supply chain.

How the Erosion Is Actually Happening

The mechanisms are quieter than they sound:

1. Cost democratisation. Platforms that once cost a state tens of millions of dollars to field now have functional civilian equivalents costing a few hundred or a few thousand. Ukraine alone is estimated to have produced close to two million first-person-view drones in 2024—a scale of precision-strike capability that would have been unthinkable for a state defence budget a generation ago, let alone for the non-state and irregular groups now copying the model.
2. Dependency substitution. Militaries increasingly rely on commercial infrastructure they do not own and cannot fully control. When Ukraine’s access to Starlink connectivity and Maxar’s commercial satellite imagery briefly became a point of political leverage in a negotiation over a critical-minerals deal in February 2025, it exposed how thoroughly modern militaries had come to depend on privately owned, foreign-controlled systems for functions once considered sovereign—communications and intelligence.
3. Silent obsolescence of cryptographic advantage. Encrypted government and military communications are already being harvested and stockpiled by adversaries who cannot yet read them but expect to within the next decade. Recent research has cut the estimated quantum resources needed to break RSA-2048 encryption from twenty million qubits to under one million, with credible estimates of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arriving as early as 2029.
4. Diversion through globalised supply chains. Even where export controls exist on paper, enforcement struggles to keep pace with dual-use goods routed through intermediaries. In December 2025, the United States disrupted a network responsible for diverting more than 160 million dollars’ worth of advanced AI chips to restricted destinations—a single case among a steady stream of similar actions.

Why the Erosion Is Happening

The underlying causes are structural rather than accidental, and they will not resolve themselves:

• The centre of gravity for frontier innovation has moved from defence laboratories to commercial markets. Venture capital and consumer demand now fund research at a scale and speed that defence procurement cycles cannot match. A smartphone camera sensor, a drone flight controller, or a large language model reaches maturity in commercial markets years before an equivalent military-specific programme would clear its requirements process.
• The very nature of dual-use technology resists the tools states have traditionally used to control it. A rocket that launches a weather satellite can launch a reconnaissance satellite; a communications network built for rural broadband can carry military traffic; a robotic arm designed to service a satellite can just as easily interfere with one. Export control regimes built around discrete, identifiable military hardware struggle against technology whose military application is a matter of software configuration rather than physical design.
• Globalisation has distributed manufacturing and expertise across many jurisdictions with uneven enforcement capacity. Well-designed controls in one country can be routed around through a third-country intermediary, a shell subsidiary, or a permissive jurisdiction, as the steady cadence of diversion prosecutions illustrates.
• The states that own the largest share of dual-use infrastructure—commercial satellite operators, cloud providers, and chip manufacturers—are concentrated in a small number of countries. This means access to militarily relevant civilian technology is increasingly conditioned on the political relationship with the country hosting the provider, not merely on the buyer’s ability to pay.

What Can Be Done

None of this argues for retreating from commercial technology, which is neither possible nor desirable. It argues for a deliberate strategy that treats dual-use dependence as a risk to be actively managed rather than a convenience to be passively accepted:

• Build sovereign backup capacity. For functions where foreign commercial dependence has already proven coercible—satellite communications and imagery chief among them—states need at least a minimum viable indigenous or allied alternative that can be activated if commercial access is withdrawn or degraded.
• Accelerate the migration to post-quantum cryptography. Because harvest-now, decrypt-later attacks are already under way, waiting for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer to appear before upgrading encryption guarantees that today’s most sensitive traffic will eventually be exposed. Migration needs to begin now, prioritised by how long the underlying data must stay secret.
• Mandate secure-by-design standards for dual-use platforms. Requiring cybersecurity and anti-spoofing protections to be embedded at the design stage, rather than added afterward, for satellites, drones, and networked sensors closes a class of vulnerability that has already produced a documented rise in signal-spoofing incidents against space assets.
• Coordinate export controls with trusted partners rather than pursuing them unilaterally. Since dual-use goods move through globalised supply chains, controls that are not harmonised across allied jurisdictions simply redirect trade through the weakest link. Recent friction over unpredictable licensing has already strained cooperation between India and the United States on exactly this point.
• Invest in indigenous capacity in the technologies that matter most. Rather than attempting to control or replicate every dual-use technology, states should concentrate scarce capital and talent on sovereign capability in the handful of domains—secure communications, critical sensors, autonomous systems software—where dependence carries the highest strategic cost.
• Treat commercial-sector monitoring as a standing intelligence function. Because the technologies eroding military advantage are being developed in civilian laboratories and start-ups rather than defence establishments, tracking their maturation requires the same systematic attention traditionally reserved for tracking an adversary’s weapons programmes.

Conclusion The erosion of military advantage through dual-use technology is silent precisely because nothing about it looks like a threat when it happens. A start-up ships a better drone camera. A cloud provider trains a more capable model. A satellite operator signs a new broadband customer. Each transaction is commercially unremarkable. Only in aggregate, and usually only in hindsight, does the pattern become visible: capabilities once confined to defence budgets are now available to anyone with market access, and control over the underlying infrastructure has migrated from ministries of defence to corporate boardrooms in a handful of countries. For India, as for every state seeking to preserve a credible military edge, the task ahead is not to resist this shift—which is neither possible nor sensible—but to build the sovereign redundancy, cryptographic resilience, and coordinated export discipline that allow it to draw on the same civilian innovation without becoming hostage to it.

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML): AI and ML are expected to be increasingly used to improve decision-making, target identification, and battlefield awareness. They could also be used to develop autonomous weapons, which could make warfare more efficient and less reliant on human decision-making.

Autonomous Systems: Unmanned aerial and ground vehicles, as well as underwater drones, are expected to become more prevalent on the battlefield. These systems could be used for reconnaissance, surveillance, and other military tasks, and could greatly enhance the capabilities of military forces.

Directed Energy Weapons (DEW): Lasers and microwave weapons are expected to become more powerful and more widely used in warfare. These weapons could be used to disable or destroy targets at a distance, and could greatly enhance the capabilities of military forces.

Quantum Technology: Quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum encryption are expected to play a major role in future warfare. They could be used to develop more powerful and secure communication systems, as well as to improve intelligence gathering and analysis.

Cybersecurity: As more military systems become connected to the internet, protecting them from cyberattacks will become increasingly important. Emerging technologies such as blockchain and quantum-resistant cryptography are expected to play a key role in securing military networks and systems.

Robotics and Drones: Robotics and drones are expected to play a more prominent role in future warfare, they could be used for reconnaissance, surveillance, and other military tasks including search and rescue, reconnaissance, and explosive ordnance disposal.

Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR): AR/VR are likely to be used for training, simulation, and for enhancing the situational awareness of soldiers on the battlefield.

Hypersonic Weapons: These are missiles that travel at speeds above Mach 5 and can evade traditional missile defense systems.

Space-based Assets: Satellites are being used for a variety of military purposes, including communication, navigation, and intelligence gathering.

Autonomous Systems

India has been actively working on developing autonomous systems and Robotics for defence purposes.

Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has been developing various UAS for reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition. DRDO’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Rustom-2 can be used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs). DRDO has been developing UGVs for a variety of tasks, including explosive ordnance disposal and reconnaissance. DRDO’s UGV named Daksh is capable of handling Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs). A Minefield Breaching System (MBS) has also been developed, which can be used to clear minefields and other explosive hazards.

Autonomous Naval Systems. Autonomous surface and underwater vehicles for naval applications such as mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, and surveillance are under development. Indian Navy has developed an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle named AUV-62.

Autonomous Weapon Systems. DRDO has been working on autonomous weapon systems for use in air, land and naval defence. These systems are intended to improve decision-making and target identification.

Humanoid Robots. DRDO is also researching the development of humanoid robots for military and civilian applications.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

AI and ML technologies are being used to improve decision-making, target identification and tracking, predictive maintenance and cybersecurity.

AI-based Decision Support Systems. The Indian armed forces are using AI-based decision support systems to improve situational awareness and decision-making on the battlefield. The Indian Army has developed an AI-based decision support system called the Tactical Control and Analysis System (TCAS).

ML-based Target Identification and Tracking. DRDO has been working on developing ML-based systems for target identification and tracking, for use in air and missile defence. DRDO has developed an ML-based system for tracking and identifying aircraft and missiles, called the Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS).

AI-based Predictive Maintenance. India’s armed forces are using AI-based predictive maintenance systems to improve the maintenance of weapons and equipment. The Indian Navy has developed an AI-based predictive maintenance system called the Automatic Maintenance Management System (AMMS).

AI-based Cyber Security. AI and ML has been in use to improve cybersecurity, including intrusion detection and response, and threat intelligence.

AI-based Autonomous Systems. DRDO is been researching the use of AI to improve the autonomy and decision-making capabilities of unmanned systems, including UAVs and UGVs.

Hypersonic Weapons

India is actively researching and developing hypersonic weapons technology, including the Hypersonic Technology Demonstration Vehicle (HSTDV), the BrahMos-II missile, and the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC). India has also successfully tested a hypersonic scramjet engine, which is a key technology for hypersonic propulsion.

HSTDV can be used to test and validate hypersonic propulsion technologies. BrahMos-II is an upgraded version of BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, designed to be able to travel at hypersonic speeds. HAWC will be a new class of missile that can travel at hypersonic speeds and carry conventional or nuclear payloads.

India has successfully tested a hypersonic scramjet engine. This technology will be used to power the HSTDV and the HAWC.

Directed Energy Weapons

India is actively researching and developing directed energy weapons (DEW), such as high-energy laser systems and microwave weapons, for use in air and missile defense, electronic warfare, and communications.

High-energy Laser Systems. DRDO has been researching and developing high-energy laser systems to disable or destroy incoming missiles and aircraft. DRDO is also working on microwave weapons for use in electronic warfare. These weapons can be used to disrupt or damage electronic systems, such as radar and communications systems.

Laser-based Communication System. The Department of Space has been developing a laser-based communication system that uses a beam of laser light to transmit data through the atmosphere.

Solid-state Laser Technology. DRDO is also working on solid-state laser technology for use in high-energy laser systems.

Space-based Assets

India has been developing a variety of space-based assets for military use, including communication, navigation and reconnaissance satellites, military satellite launch vehicles and space-based early warning systems.

Communication Satellites. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has developed a number of communication satellites that can be used for military and civilian purposes.

Navigation Satellites. ISRO has developed a regional satellite navigation system called NAVIC (Navigation with Indian Constellation) which provides accurate positioning and timing information for military and civilian use.

Reconnaissance Satellites. ISRO has developed a number of reconnaissance satellites that can be used for intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance. These include the Cartosat series of satellites which provide high-resolution imagery.

Military Satellite Launch Vehicles. The Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) are used to launch military and civilian satellites into orbit.

Space-based Early Warning Systems. Space-based early warning systems is being developed to detect and track incoming ballistic missiles, and other potential threats to Indian airspace.

Quantum Communication and Quantum Computing

In summary, India is actively researching and developing Quantum communication and Quantum computing technology for defence applications, with a focus on Quantum key distribution, quantum computing, quantum random number generator, and quantum communication network. DRDO and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have been leading the development of these technologies.

QKD uses the principles of quantum mechanics to generate and distribute cryptographic keys, making it extremely difficult to hack.

DRDO has been researching the use of quantum computing for cryptography, simulation and optimization. A quantum random number generator has been developed that can be used for cryptographic applications, such as key generation and encryption. Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) and Indian Institute of Science (IISc) are also actively researching and developing quantum computing technology.

Quantum Communication Network. DRDO is also researching the development of a quantum communication network that would be able to transmit information securely using quantum cryptography.

Critical Technologies for Next-gen Fighter Aircraft

Several critical technologies are required for military aerospace and next-gen fighter aircraft. These include:

• Stealth technology by reducing the radar cross-section of an aircraft to make it more difficult to detect by radar. This can be achieved through the use of advanced materials and shaping techniques.

• Avionics systems that can integrate and process a large amount of data from various sensors, including radar, infrared, and electronic warfare systems, to improve situational awareness and decision-making.

• Supersonic and hypersonic propulsion that enable aircraft to fly at supersonic or hypersonic speeds, greatly increasing their speed and range, as well as their ability to evade enemy defences.

• Directed energy weapons like laser and microwave weapons that can be used to disable or destroy enemy aircraft, missiles and other targets.

• The use of advanced materials, such as composites, that can withstand high temperatures and stresses, as well as structures that can withstand high-g manoeuvres are critical for next-generation fighter aircraft.

Complexities Involved in Development of Aeroengines

The development and manufacture of aeroengines is a complex and challenging process that involves a number of technical, logistical, and financial complexities. Some of the major complexities involved in this process include:

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Techniques. Aeroengines are made from a variety of materials, including metals, ceramics, and composites, which must be engineered and manufactured to exacting tolerances to withstand the high temperatures, pressures, and loads encountered in flight.

Complex Design and Engineering. Aeroengines are highly complex systems that require advanced design and engineering techniques to optimize performance, efficiency, and reliability. This includes the use of computational fluid dynamics, finite element analysis, and other advanced simulation tools to model and optimize the engine’s performance.

High Development and Manufacturing Costs. Developing and manufacturing aeroengines is an extremely costly process, involving significant investments in research and development, engineering, testing, and production facilities.

Critical Technologies for Next-gen Armoured Fighting Vehicles

Some critical technologies for next generation armoured fighting vehicles include:

• Active protection systems (APS) which detect and intercept incoming projectiles before they can hit the vehicle.

• Advanced armour materials, such as ceramic and composite materials, that can provide better protection against high-powered weapons.

• Electric drive systems and hybrid powertrains to improve mobility and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

• Advanced sensors and networking systems to improve situational awareness and communication among vehicles and with command and control centres.

• Autonomous capabilities such as autonomy and artificial intelligence to improve decision-making and reduce the risk to crew members.

• Stealth technology to reduce the vehicle’s detectability by enemy sensors.

• Laser weapons, directed energy weapons, to provide longer range and more precise firepower.

Critical Technologies for Next-gen Submarines

Next-gen submarines require some critical technologies as follows:

• Advanced stealth technology to reduce the submarine’s detectability by enemy sensors. This includes quieting systems for the propulsion, electrical and mechanical systems, as well as hull coatings and designs that minimize the submarine’s acoustic, magnetic and electromagnetic signatures.

• AIP (air-independent propulsion) systems that allow the submarine to operate for extended periods without surfacing. This can include fuel cells, closed-cycle diesel engines, or Stirling engines.

• Advanced sensors, including sonar systems, for improved underwater detection and classification of other vessels and submarines.

• Integrated communications and networking systems to improve the submarine’s command, control, and information-sharing capabilities.

• Hybrid electric drive propulsion system that allows extended low-speed operations and silent running, as well as increased range and endurance.

• In the case of next-gen frigates and destroyers, additional technologies, as follows, are required:

• Advanced propulsion systems, such as gas turbine or integrated electric drive, to improve the ship’s speed, range, and manoeuvrability.

•  Advanced sensors, including radar, sonar and electronic warfare systems, for improved situational awareness and threat detection.

• Integrated communications and networking systems to improve the ship’s command, control, and information-sharing capabilities.

• Advanced armour materials and active protection systems to improve the ship’s survivability against incoming projectiles.

Way Ahead

India is a significant player in the defence and aerospace industries, with a strong focus on developing advanced technologies. The country has a robust domestic defence industry, which produces a wide range of military equipment and weapons systems, including tanks, fighter jets, and warships. India also has a growing aerospace industry, with several major companies and research institutions including DRDO working on developing new technologies in areas such as satellite launch vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and hypersonic vehicles. Additionally, India has a strong tradition of scientific research, including in areas such as aerodynamics, propulsion, and materials science, which it is leveraging to develop advanced technologies for defence and aerospace applications.

To further enhance its capabilities and catch up with the world leaders in advanced technologies, India should increase investment in research and development; encourage collaboration and partnerships between its defence and aerospace companies, research institutions, and international partners; create a conducive policy environment (funding, tax incentives, and other benefits); increase indigenization with a focus on building capabilities in design, development, and production of defence equipment; and emphasize on education and training (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).

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The Indian Army is making steady, yet significant strides in the field of emerging technology domains.

Quantum Lab

The Army, has established the Quantum Lab at Military College of Telecommunication Engineering (MCTE), with support from the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) to spearhead research and training in this key developing field. Research undertaken by the Indian Army in the field of Quantum Technology will help leapfrog into next-generation communication and transform the current system of cryptography in the Indian Armed Forces to Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Key thrust areas are Quantum Key Distribution, Quantum Communication, Quantum Computing and Post Quantum Cryptography.

In October 2021, the ideation of Indian Army’s involvement in Electromagnetic (EM) Spectrum Operations had emerged at a seminar organised on EM Spectrum and National Security. Since then, Indian Army’s technology institutions have been encouraged to invest in AI, quantum and cyber domains.

Quantum key distribution, quantum computing, post quantum cryptography and quantum communication will be the key focus areas in the research. This research work is expected to transform the existing system of cryptography in the Indian armed forces to post quantum cryptography.

Artificial Intelligence Centre

The Army has several schemes underway on contemporary and emerging AI technologies. Apart from civil industry partnerships, an AI centre of excellence has been established at the Military College for Telecommunication Engineering in Mhow.

Application-oriented research in AI is also being conducted at two dedicated DRDO labs, Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) and DRDO Young Scientist Laboratory (DYSL)-AI, both at Bengaluru. Moreover, all DRDO system labs have started AI technology groups to introduce AI features in all products.

But with countries like the US and China galloping towards AI-driven warfare, there is widespread acceptance that much more needs to be done on this “disruptive technology” front to boost the combat capability and survivability of Indian forces.

“Improved situational awareness, fusion of sensors, faster decision-making, use of autonomous weapons, and integration of AI into every facet of warfare, will necessitate changes to war fighting doctrines, organisations and structures, training methodology and leadership. For militaries across the world as well as for us, this remains an ongoing challenge, and a work in progress,” Army chief Gen MM Naravane said at a seminar.

Cyber Warfare

Training on cyber warfare is being imparted through a state of art cyber range, and cyber security labs.

By undertaking a multi-stakeholder approach incorporating Academia (such as IITs), DRDO organisations, Research Institutes, Corporate firms, Startups and Industry players, this initiative is an apt example of Civil-Military fusion with ”Atmanirbhar Bharat” a key driving factor. Requisite timelines based objectives with adequate funding have been worked out for projects and progressive fielding of solutions in the Indian Army is expected on a fast track basis. .

”Hackathon’ on Emerging Technologies

The Indian Army conducted a first-of-its-kind ‘Hackathon’, on 1 October 2021 to 31 December 2021, giving a shot in the arm for proficiency and expertise in the use of emerging technologies, and to delineate the technological side of the armed force. The hackathon was conducted in the MCTE, Mhow under the overall guidance of the Army Training Command (ARTRAC).

The event was conducted from under the name of “Sainya Ranakshetram”, in collaboration with the Rashtriya Raksha University. The virtual event witnessed the participation of over 15,000 participants and comprised a number of challenges based on secure coding, software defined radio exploitation and cyber offensive skills.

Further, the main highlights of the event included participants competing with each other in cyberspace against simulated threats. Additionally, the event also hosted a plethora of training sessions and sessions by experts for the participants. Cyber enthusiasts from across India were the cynosure in the entire event.

Messaging Application

The Indian Army, on 23 December, launched a new messaging application called Army Secure IndiGeneous Messaging Application (ASIGMA) for in-house communication. ASIGMA has been developed entirely in-house by a team of officers of the Corps of Signals.

The new application is being deployed on the Army’s internal network as a replacement of Army Wide Area Network (AWAN) messaging application which has been in service for the past 15 years. ASIGMA has been fielded on Army-owned hardware and lends itself to lifetime support with future upgrades, it said.

The bespoke messaging application meets all futuristic user requirements and boasts of an enhanced user experience. It has a variety of contemporary features, including multi-level security, message prioritisation and tracking, dynamic global address book and various options to meet the Army’s requirements.

This future ready messaging application will meet real time data transfer and messaging requirements of the Army, especially in the backdrop of current geo political security environment and is in line with the government of India’s Make in India initiative.

The Indian Army has braced automation in a major way, especially after the COVID-19 outbreak, and is taking substantial steps towards paperless functioning.

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