Development of Phase-I of the two-tier BMD, which is designed to track and destroy nuclear missiles both inside (endo) and outside (exo) the earth’s atmosphere at altitudes from 15-25 km to 80-100 km for “a higher kill probability”, was completed by DRDO some time ago.

The government, however, has so far refrained from sanctioning its full-scale operational deployment at any vital location, sources said. This could be due to the high costs involved, or even strategic calculations that it may provoke Pakistan to go in for a larger nuclear arsenal and countermeasures to defeat the BMD system.

India, of course, has inducted the Russian S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems that can detect, track and destroy incoming strategic bombers, jets, spy planes, drones and even some intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

DRDO, on its part, is going ahead in developing the requisite technologies for a full-fledged BMD system. As per the original plan, Phase-I of the BMD system, with interceptors flying at 4.5 Mach supersonic speeds to intercept enemy missiles, was meant to tackle hostile missiles with a 2,000-km strike range. The Phase-II, in turn, is supposed to take on the 5,000-km range class of missiles.

On 2 November, the new interceptor missile called AD-1, with “a large kill altitude” was successfully tested against “an electronic target” from the APJ Abdul Kalam Island off the Odisha coast. The flight-test was carried out with elements of the BMD system being placed at different geographical locations.
“The AD-1 is a long-range interceptor missile designed for both low exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric interception of long-range ballistic missiles as well as aircraft (like AWACS or airborne warning and control systems),” the defence ministry said.

Propelled by a two-stage solid motor, the AD-1 is equipped with indigenously-developed advanced control systems, navigation and guidance algorithms to precisely guide the vehicle to the target.

Defence minister Rajnath Singh said AD-1 “is a unique type of interceptor with advanced technologies available with only a very few nations in the world”, while expressing confidence that it will further strengthen the country’s BMD capability and take it to the next level.

DRDO chairman Samir V Kamat, in turn, said the AD-1 interceptor will provide “great operational flexibility to the users and has the capability to engage many different types of targets”.

Only a few countries like the US, Russia, Israel and China have fully-operational BMD systems, with an overlapping network of early-warning and tracking sensors, reliable command and control posts, land and sea-based batteries of advanced interceptor missiles.

India’s BMD programme has been in the works since the late-1990s, with its first interceptor missile being tested in November 2006. Having conducted over a dozen tests of the BMD system since then, a few of which have failed, DRDO in the past has said that it has a “kill probability of 99.8%” with the mix of exo and endo-interceptor missiles. AD-1 is a new and flexible endo-interceptor missile.

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The Indian security establishment is keeping a close eye on the Russia-Ukraine developments and calculating the immediate and long-term impact on the country’s defence capabilities.

About 70 per cent of Indian defence equipment are of Russian origin. However, India procures many parts of the Russian systems from Ukraine. This is because several manufacturing hubs remained with Ukraine after USSR disintegrated.

One of the main problems facing Indian forces has been servicing and maintenance of Russian military equipment since spare parts are in short supply and have to be imported not just from Russia and Ukraine but from other countries as well.

Indigenisation

Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, India issued a list of 107 sub-systems, on 24 March, that are to be banned from import and indigenised over the next six years. Several of the items on the list are meant for T-90 and T 72 tanks, warships, helicopters, infantry combat vehicles, missiles, ammunition and radars among others, all of which are procured from either Russia or Ukraine.

The subsystems or strategically-important line-replacement units – will now be “indigenised”, or procured only from the Indian industry. The import of these products will be phased out from December 2022 to the end of 2028.

Incidentally, both India and Russia were already working on a deal to indigenously manufacture the spares here through tie-ups, something which had come up for detailed discussion in 2019 between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russia President Vladimir Putin.

The government had, in December 2021, issued the first positive indigenisation list of subsystems, assemblies, subassemblies and other components.

Two thousand and five hundred imported items from that list have already been indigenised and the other 351 will stop being imported in the next three years.

Russian-origin tanks

Amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine where the anti-tank missiles have achieved significant success against armour, the Indian Army is going to incorporate the lessons of the conflict in the design of its futuristic main battle tank.

The Indian Army has been one of the biggest users of Russian armour including the T-90, T-72 and BMP-series infantry combat vehicles which are the mainstay of the force.

In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reports from the war zone have suggested that the Ukrainians have extensively used anti-tank guided missiles to exploit the weakness of the Russian armoured vehicles and achieved significant success too.

Indian armed forces have been keeping a close eye on the developments on the battlefield as a lot of equipment is common including the tanks being used there.

The inputs are being analysed and the lessons would be incorporated into the design of the futuristic main battle tanks that would be produced and used by the Indian Army in coming years.

The Indian Army earlier used to deploy these tanks only along the desert and plain borders with Pakistan but they have now become the face of Indian resolve along the China border too as large numbers are deployed there from Ladakh to Sikkim.

In the Russia-Ukraine war going on for around 46 days now, a number of European and North American nations are supplying anti-tank and anti-aircraft equipment such as the Carl Gustaf anti-tank rocket launchers, NLAWs and AT-4.

The design of the tanks is at least three to four decades old but the anti-tank missiles and rockets have been designed as per the latest requirements and have an upper hand in the present scenario.

The Indian designers would make an attempt to offset that advance in the futuristic main battle tanks that would be built some years from now, they said.

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“I can confirm that if India displays interest in acquiring S-500 systems, we will study this possibility in the closest way,” Alipov said. “But, as far as I know, no concrete talks are on the current agenda,” he added.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said last December that India might become the first foreign purchaser of the Russian missile defense system S-500 Prometheus, should it display interest.

Earlier, in July 2021 the Russian Defense Ministry said that the S-500 had undergone live firing tests at the Kapustin Yar proving ground. All of the expected parameters were confirmed. The S-500 system – a product of the Almaz-Antey group – was designed to intercept any of the existing or yet-to-be developed aerospace attack weapons of a hypothetical enemy in the entire range of altitudes and speeds. The S-500 is seen as a successor to the S-400 Triumf system.

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India will have to grapple with a more belligerent China along its northern borders as a fallout of the Ukraine crisis. The Indian and Chinese armies have been locked in a border standoff since May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. Since then, the two sides held several rounds of military and diplomatic which have only resulted in partial disengagement of troops from friction points.

So far, India has walked the diplomatic tightrope between the US and Russia, given its own strategic compulsions. Warding off pressure from the US and its European allies to strongly oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is a matter by itself. India hopes that purchase of the five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile squadrons, under the $5.43 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) contract inked with Russia in October 2018, was an “urgent national security requirement” to counter aggressive neighbours like China and Pakistan. Hence, the US will not impose sanctions under CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act), which seeks to prevent countries from buying Russian weapons, by mounting a major diplomatic-military campaign with both the Trump and Biden administrations.

On the China front, India will need to keep an eagle-eye on the annual exercises of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in March-April along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) and be “prepared for any contingencies.

In addition to the stalemate along the LAC, the IA could face the emergence of another front on its western flank from China’s ‘willing’ affiliate Pakistan, with the aim of dividing India’s already overstretched forces and equally strained financial and equipment resources.

As it is, the PLA has shown no signs of de-escalating the 21-month-long troop confrontation in eastern Ladakh, even as it has systematically strengthened its military positions and infrastructure all along the LAC.

With the attention of the US-led West diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine instead of countering China in the Indo-Pacific, an emboldened Beijing is likely to indulge in muscle-flexing along the LAC, especially in the Arunachal sector.

Apart from conventional military capabilities, China’s focus on space, cyberspace and “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare has been a major concern for India.

“China’s latest demonstration of physically moving one of its disabled satellites into the graveyard orbit is bringing in newer threats in the race to weaponise the space domain, a domain hitherto considered relatively safe,” IAF chief Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said at a seminar on 24 February.

Quad’s Focus

Furthermore, the inchoate and nebulous preemptive deterrent instrumentality like the naval-focused Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, initiated in 2007-08 as a China-containment strategy, and one which included Australia, Japan and the US, has, in its new avatar, proven ineffectual in discouraging Beijing’s adventurism in Ladakh. Besides, all four Quad members are now preoccupied with dealing with the fallout from Ukraine’s invasion and bracing themselves for a unified China-Russia front, in which the latter’s military technology, expertise and know-how would be more aggressively mated and advanced by a financially flush and industrially forward Beijing.

India should now forcefully use its considerable diplomatic clout and its deep friendships on all sides to end the conflict and stabilise the region. The additional advantage in such a solution would be to persuade India’s strategic partners including its Quad partners to turn back their focus on China and the Indo-Pacific.

Beijing-Moscow Axis

The ongoing confusion over the war in Ukraine could impact the LAC situation, as sanctions could drive Moscow into a ‘Chinese embrace’. In that case, India would have to deal with the PLA threat by itself. And to do so it needs to summarily and significantly augment its economic and military capabilities.

India could well end up facing the brunt of this deadly security partnership between Moscow, Beijing and Islamabad. Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on February 25, within hours of the latter having ordered his army’s mobilisation against Kyiv, was ‘significant.’ It had firmly secured Putin’s eastern flank, with the exception of India, which had opted to remain neutral. It is apposite to recall that Putin lifted sanctions on Pakistan in 2014, sold it Mi-35M Hind-E attack helicopters and conducted joint exercises with its army near Peshawar in October 2018.

India’s ‘nightmare scenario’ is  – Washington deciding to confront a greater threat from Russia in its European backyard than from China, and opting for a strategic accommodation with Beijing. Or the US conceding Chinese dominance in Asia to safeguard its European flank from an expansionist Russia.

India’s Options

India needs to forge long-term alliances with advanced materiel producing countries to eventually replace Russian equipment, in addition to ‘realistically’ beefing up its domestic defence manufacturing.

The government’s disjointed and ad hoc approach to fostering military capability development has to stop. The MoD needs to optimise scarce financial resources and focus on immediate security threats and not on optics, like the recent strident official announcement that Indian industry had indigenised the manufacture of assorted military-grade nuts and bolts.

Instead of half-baked measures, India must make self-reliance in military requirements a concrete national mission, along with a special thrust on space, cyberspace and special operations. Moreover, a robust nuclear deterrence is required to deter all adversaries.

The ongoing situation on northern Borders warrants the Indian Army to re-align the operational tasking of its reserve formations to focus on the northern borders and refine warfighting capabilities in high altitude mountainous terrain.

India uneasily awaits the next Chinese misadventure on its borders. Unlike Ukraine, India is alone.

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“My view is that it’s going to be very hard for anyone to buy major weapon systems from Moscow in the coming months and years, given sweeping financial sanctions that the administration, with the support of Congress has levelled…I would guess that India is one of those countries worried about that,” Lu said, as mentioned in a report by news agency ANI.

India is one of the largest importers of Russian arms. India recently cancelled orders for MiG-29 fighter aircraft, helicopters and anti-tank weapons, he said, further adding that the sanctions might motivate other countries to follow suit, the news agency reported.

Lu’s comments came after India was criticised by both Republicans and Democrats for abstaining from voting at the UN to rebuke Russia’s invasion. India was among 35 nations to abstain.

The diplomat said that the Biden administration is yet to decide on applying sanctions on India under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). He said that India is a “really important security partner” and that the US values the partnership.

Lu also said that the US is trying to urge India to take a ‘clear position’ on the Russia-Ukraine war. The diplomat said that India’s position arises from two things – to be able to leave the possibility of a diplomatic resolution open, and the 18,000 students still stuck in Ukraine, as mentioned in the report.

Even without a clear position, Lu said, some evolution can be seen such as India’s humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and its call to all states to abide by the UN Charter to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states.

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Given its own strategic compulsions, India has so far walked the diplomatic tightrope between the US and Russia. “But India will now come under tremendous pressure from the US and its European allies to strongly oppose Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” a senior defence official said on 24 February.

India till now has managed to stave off sanctions under the US law called CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act), which seeks to prevent countries from buying Russian weapons, by mounting a major diplomatic-military campaign with both the Trump and Biden administrations.

This allowed India to induct the first of the five S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile squadrons a couple of months ago, under the $5.43 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) contract inked with Russia in October 2018, as an “urgent national security requirement” to counter aggressive neighbours like China and Pakistan.

The US also did not make noises about India’s inking of another $3 billion deal with Russia for the lease of an Akula-1 class nuclear-powered attack submarine in March 2019.

Though Russia still remains its largest defence supplier, India has increasingly turned to the US, France and Israel for its military hardware and software requirements. The US itself has bagged lucrative Indian defence deals worth over $21 billion since 2007. “But the Biden administration may no longer be willing to grant a waiver to India for buying the Russian S-400 and other weapons,” another officer said.

On the China front, India will need to keep an eagle-eye on the annual exercises of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in March-April along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) and be “prepared for any contingencies”, defence officials said.

“With the attention of the US-led West diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine instead of countering China in the Indo-Pacific, an emboldened Beijing is likely to indulge in muscle-flexing along the LAC, especially in the Arunachal sector,” an official said.

As it is, the PLA has shown no signs of de-escalating the 21-month-long troop confrontation in eastern Ladakh, even as it has systematically strengthened its military positions and infrastructure all along the LAC.

Apart from conventional military capabilities, China’s focus on space, cyberspace and “informatized” and “intelligentized” warfare has been a major concern for India.

“China’s latest demonstration of physically moving one of its disabled satellites into the graveyard orbit is bringing in newer threats in the race to weaponise the space domain, a domain hitherto considered relatively safe,” IAF chief Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said at a seminar on 24 February.

The Ukraine crisis has also once again reinforced the inescapable need for India to emerge out of its strategically-vulnerable position of being the world’s second-largest arms importer after Saudi Arabia.

“Instead of half-baked measures, India must make self-reliance in military requirements a concrete national mission, along with a special thrust on space, cyberspace and special operations. Moreover, a robust nuclear deterrence is required to deter all adversaries,” an official said.

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The United States is continuing to talk to India about the risks of sanctions for its acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia under the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), but has not made a determination “with regard to this transaction”, the State department said on 27 January 2022.

Speaking at a regular press briefing, the State department spokesperson Ned Price said, “I think it shines a spotlight on the destabilising role that Russia is playing not only in the region, but potentially beyond as well. When it comes to CAATSA sanctions, you’ve heard me say before we haven’t made a determination with regard to this transaction, but it’s something we continue to discuss with the Government of India, given the risk of sanctions for this particular transaction under CAATSA.”

Price added that whether it was India or any other country, the US continued to “urge all countries to avoid major new transactions for Russian weapon systems”. When asked if the US had a timeline on the decision on CAATSA, Price said, “I don’t have a timeline to offer, but these are issues that we continue to discuss with our partners in India.”

S-400 Deal and Sanctions Act

CAATSA came into force in 2017, at a time when the political mood in Washington DC was hostile to Russia for its actions in Ukraine, Syria and alleged interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. The Act seeks to deter countries which engage with Russia, especially in the realm of defence purchases, through punitive measures. Under the Act, sanctions were imposed on Turkey — a NATO ally — for its acquisition of the S-400 system from Russia.

India has a long-standing defence relationship with Russia — and has pursued its acquisition of the S-400 missile system.

Turkey, India and China have purchased the S-400 systems but only companies from Turkey and China have been sanctioned under CAATSA, a US domestic law introduced during the Trump era, India has so far not been acted against.

India’s Position

India had signed a $ 5 billion deal in October 2018 with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems though the US administration had warned that such a move may attract sanctions. But in recent times, US Senators have also started flagging India’s purchase of naval warships from Russia.

Despite strong objections from the US and threat of sanctions from the Biden Administration, India has refused to make any changes in its decision and is going ahead with the purchase of the missile defence system.

Interestingly, S-400 is already being deployed in India and the second one is likely to be deployed by March, with the remaining three likely to arrive by September.

Asked about the possibility of US sanctions for buying the S-400 missile systems, in November 2021, MEA spokesperson Arindam Baghci said, “India and the US have a comprehensive global strategic partnership and India has a special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. We also pursue an independent foreign policy. This applies to our defence acquisition and supplies which are guided by our national security interests.”

Balanced Approach

US President Joe Biden’s nominee for coordinator for sanctions policy James O’Brien has hinted at balance in US approach on India’s requirements for Russian S-400 missile defence systems, which are being deployed here, vis-a-vis Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa).

O’Brien was asked at his confirmation hearing on Wednesday if the US experience with Turkey provided any warning or lessons on how to proceed with India. The US had imposed sanctions on Turkey over the procurement of S-400 missile systems.

O’Brien said it was difficult to compare the two situations, with a NATO ally that is breaking with legacy defence procurement systems, and then with India, a partner of growing importance, but that has legacy ties with Russia.

At the hearing US Republican senator Todd Young batted for granting Caatsa waiver to India. “I believe they are very different circumstances, and, of course, different security partnerships – but how do you believe we should think about the possibility of sanctioning our friends and not just threats?” Young asked O’Brien.

On his part Young said India was currently taking delivery of the Russian S-400 system and was also in the process of acquiring new frigate ships from Russia. “Both are important systems for the Indians,” he said, adding, “India is a vital ally in our competition against China, and thus, I believe we should resist taking any actions that might drive them away from us and the Quad. I am therefore strongly supportive of waiving CAATSA sanctions against India, given our shared foreign policy interests.”

“As most here know, the Indians have a lot of legacy systems from previous decades, and they are interoperable with the Russians’ systems. And the Indians seek to defend their land border from Chinese incursions and defend the Indian Ocean from an increasingly adventurous and lawless blue ocean navy in the People’s Liberation Army,” he said.

In October last year, two powerful US Senators – Mark Warner of the Democratic Party and John Cornyn of the Republican Party – had urged Biden not to impose provisions of CAATSA against India for buying the S-400 missile system, arguing that it was in America’s national security interest.

“We strongly encourage you to grant a CAATSA waiver to India for its planned purchase of the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile system. In cases where granting a waiver would advance the national security interests of the US, this waiver authority, as written into the law by Congress, allows the President additional discretion in applying sanctions,” they wrote in a letter to Biden.

Both Warner, Chairman of the Senate Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and Cornyn, Senate Minority Whip for the Grand Old Party (GOP), are co-chairs of the Senate India caucus.

When it comes to the crunch, New Delhi may not need the helping hand of the two co-chairs of the India Caucus in the US Senate as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in 2019, “I am reasonably convinced of the powers of my persuasion. It would be my hope that people understand why this transaction is important for us.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, in December 2021, that the S-400 missile defence deal between India and Russia has a very important meaning for India’s defence capability and it is being implemented despite the US attempting to “undermine” the cooperation.

Comments

Most observers of the India-US relationship in Washington believe the US is likely to recognise India’s defence imperatives with regard to China, and waive off sanctions. But the renewed tensions over Ukraine have created a strong bipartisan mood in Washington against Russian actions, and added to India’s challenge in balancing ties. New Delhi issued a statement on 28 January hoping for a peaceful resolution of the situation in Ukraine.

Commenting on the broader challenge for India as US-Russia tensions deepen, Ashley J Tellis, the Tata chair for strategic studies at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and among the foremost experts on Asian geopolitics in the US, said, “There are already anxieties in the Congress about India, including vis a vis its relationship with Russia. If Delhi feels compelled to be mildly sympathetic to Russia, or even excessively neutral, it will not find a receptive audience for its position in Washington DC. India is admittedly in a hard place.”

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