Recalling Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis to Russian President Vladimir Putin that “this cannot be an era of war”, Jaishankar said: “Let me emphasise that even in conflict situations, there can be no justification for violation of human rights or of international law.

Where any such acts occur, it is imperative that they are investigated in an objective and independent manner. This was the position we took with regard to the killings in Bucha, and this is the position we take even today. The Council will also recall that we had then supported calls for an independent investigation into the Bucha incident.”

He also flagged that the “nuclear issue is a particular anxiety”, in the backdrop of Putin’s thinly-veiled threat of nuclear options.

In a reference to Beijing’s decision to block the listing of terrorists, Jaishankar said: “The fight against impunity is critical to the larger pursuit of securing peace and justice. The Security Council must send an unambiguous and unequivocal message on this count. Politics should never ever provide cover to evade accountability. Nor indeed to facilitate impunity. Regrettably, we have seen this of late in this very chamber, when it comes to sanctioning of some of the world’s most dreaded terrorists. If egregious attacks committed in broad daylight are left unpunished, this Council must reflect on the signals we are sending on impunity. There must be consistency if we are to ensure credibility.”

The session, which was chaired by French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna, was attended by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs James Cleverly, and foreign ministers of other UNSC members.

Earlier this month, China put a hold on a proposal moved at the United Nations by the US and co-supported by India to designate Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist Sajid Mir, wanted for his involvement in the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks, as a global terrorist.

In August, China had put a hold on a proposal by the US and India to blacklist Abdul Rauf Azhar, the brother of Jaish-e Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar and a senior leader of the Pakistan-based terror organisation. Abdul Rauf, born in 1974 in Pakistan, was sanctioned by the US in December 2010.

And, in June this year, China had put a hold, at the last moment, on a joint proposal by India and the US to list Pakistan-based terrorist Abdul Rehman Makki under the 1267 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee of the UN Security Council.

On the situation in Ukraine, Jaishankar said: “The trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is a matter of profound concern for the entire international community. The future outlook appears even more disturbing. The nuclear issue is a particular anxiety.”

 “In a globalised world, the impact of the conflict is being felt even in distant regions. We have all experienced its consequences in terms of surging costs and actual shortages of foodgrains, fertilisers and fuel. On this score too, there are good grounds to be worried about what awaits us. The global south, especially, is feeling the pain very acutely. We must therefore not initiate measures that further complicate the struggling global economy and that is why India strongly reiterates the need for an immediate cessation of all hostilities and a return to dialogue and diplomacy. Clearly, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasised, this cannot be an era of war. On our part, we are also providing both humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and economic support to some of our neighbours under economic distress.”

He underlined that the “need of the hour is to end this conflict in Ukraine and return to the negotiating table”. “This Council is the most powerful contemporary symbol of diplomacy. It must continue to live up to its purpose. The global order that we all subscribe to, is based on international law, UN Charter and respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all States. These principles too must be upheld, without exception,” he said.

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The two sides discussed free and open Indo-Pacific, the ongoing war in Ukraine and counter terrorism cooperation. Discussions also included the developments in the Indian subcontinent (Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, Pakistan’s political chaos).

The readouts released by the both sides did not mention India speaking about China directly. However, the US Secretary of Defence did mention China directly. At the 2+2 meeting he said, “The People’s Republic of China is seeking to refashion the region and the international system more broadly in ways that serve its authoritarian interests. But as we operationalise our defence agreements and take our cooperation to the next level, I believe that we can sustain and strengthen a favourable balance of power in the region.”

In focus was building a resilient, regional security architecture.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh spoke about the growing depth and scale of defence partnership. He highlighted how India’s defence supplies from USA has reached $20 billion.

The Ministers reaffirmed the vital role of secure, resilient, reliable, and diverse supply chains for Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET), and the need to enable regional and global innovation. The Ministers decided to put in place a framework to advance cooperation in CET such as advanced communication technology, artificial intelligence, quantum science, STEM, semi-conductors and biotechnology.

Recalling their countries’ strong tradition of space exploration and endeavors, the Ministers announced the conclusion of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Situational Awareness and pledged to expand bilateral space cooperation, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment. They applauded the ongoing development of the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite, planned for launch from India in 2023. The NISAR mission will collect data vital to tackling the climate crisis. The Ministers also looked forward to the convening of the next India-U.S. Civil Space Joint Working Group in 2022.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022.

They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India.

The Ministers committed to continued exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, countering violent radicalism, use of the Internet for terrorist purposes, and cross-border movement of terrorists. The Ministers also emphasized the importance of upholding international standards on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism by all countries, consistent with FATF recommendations.

Recognizing the importance of protecting cultural heritage, the Ministers committed to work toward negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding that will deepen cooperation in this area and assist authorities in combatting the trade in cultural artifacts and facilitating their repatriation.

Defense and Security

The Ministers commended the significant and continuing progress in the India-U.S. Major Defense Partnership. Drawing on the momentum from the India-U.S. Defense Policy Group meeting in October 2021, they reaffirmed their ambitions for building an advanced and comprehensive defense partnership in which the U.S. and Indian militaries coordinate closely together across all domains.

The Ministers acknowledged the importance of deepening collaboration in science and technology in the India-U.S. Joint Technical Group (JTG), and in evolving new defense domains, including space, artificial intelligence (AI), and cyber. The Ministers underscored the importance of cooperation in space and welcomed plans to conduct an inaugural Defense Space Dialogue in 2022. They welcomed the second Defense Cyber Dialogue held in 2021 and look forward to the next round this year. They decided to hold an inaugural AI Dialogue this year to harness opportunities for joint innovation and cooperation in new domains. The Ministers also discussed additional training opportunities for our respective militaries, and the United States welcomed enhanced Indian participation in advanced courses across these emerging domains.

As information-sharing forms an important pillar of the India-U.S. defense cooperation, the Ministers underlined the importance of building a comprehensive framework under which our militaries are equipped to exchange information in real time across domains. The Ministers welcomed progress made toward full implementation of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) to support the exchange of geospatial information. The Ministers noted that information exchange and placement of liaison officers in each other’s military organizations will spur joint service cooperation between our militaries to support integrated and multi-domain cooperation.

Acknowledging that their navies have been a driving force in advancing the United States and India’s shared interests in the Indian Ocean Region and the wider Indo-Pacific, the Ministers discussed opportunities to further advance and deepen maritime cooperation, including in underwater domain awareness.

The United States also welcomed India’s decision to join the Combined Maritime Forces Task Force as an Associate Partner to expand multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean. The Ministers lauded the 2022 Indo-Pacific Military Health Exchange, which India and the United States co-hosted to bring together experts from 38 countries to discuss challenges and solutions to military medical issues. Both sides look forward to India’s co-hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC) and Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) in 2023.

In support of the Indian military’s expanding operational reach and emerging opportunities for cooperation in the Indian Ocean and the wider region, the Ministers welcomed regular bilateral logistics operations such as replenishments at sea, air-to-air and ground-refueling and committed to increasing such cooperation, including through the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA).

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of regular bilateral and multilateral exercises, including the MALABAR exercise with inclusion of Australia, the tri-service TIGER TRIUMPH exercise, the multilateral MILAN naval exercise, the bilateral YUDH ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR Army exercises, the bilateral COPE India air exercise, and Indian participation in RED FLAG. They supported increasing the scope and complexity of these exercises. They looked forward to deepening cooperation between the Special Forces of both countries.

Recognizing the importance of building robust private industry collaboration, the Ministers welcomed ongoing projects under the auspices of the India-U.S. Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), including a project agreement to co-develop Air-Launched UAVs. They called on both sides to consider additional DTTI projects, such as a counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS) system and an Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) platform. They also lauded the rapid growth in bilateral defense trade over the past decade.

Seeking trusted and resilient defense supply chains, the Ministers welcomed the progress made towards implementation of the Industrial Security Agreement to facilitate collaboration on cutting edge defense technologies between industries. Both sides would explore and further promote the means to encourage reciprocal participation of U.S. and Indian vendors in each other’s defense supply chains. Acknowledging India’s focus on developing its domestic capabilities and helping to ensure reliable defense supplies, the Ministers committed to work closely across their respective governments on co-production, co-development, cooperative testing of advanced systems, investment promotion, and the development of Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities in India. To further enhance defense industrial cooperation in the naval sector, both sides agreed to explore possibilities of utilizing the Indian shipyards for repair and maintenance of ships of the U.S. Maritime Sealift Command (MSC) to support mid-voyage repair of U.S. Naval ships.

Military Tech Cooperation Document

India has shared a document with the US outlining emerging areas where military technology cooperation can be undertaken by the two nations and specialised teams are likely to conduct visits in the coming weeks to take the proposals forward. US defence companies, including those which met Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, are also likely to invest in India. India’s commitment to self-dependence has been received well.

Major US arms manufacturer Raytheon is likely to invest $100 million in setting up production and research facilities in India, while Boeing is exploring the possibility of creating a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul hub for systems like the P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft that are used by both nations. Plans by Raytheon could result in the creation of over 2,000 jobs in India.

Co-production of military systems was a key component of the talks, with emerging technology areas including artificial intelligence, cyber defence and space cooperation on the table. “There is now a clear understanding by both sides that jointly working on futuristic technologies is the way forward. It’s a major step above a simple buyer-seller relationship,” officials said.

The Indian side also pitched its shipyards for upcoming purchases planned by the US Coast Guard, showcasing their capability to deliver low cost, high quality products as well as a proven track record on delivery.

US teams are also expected to visit India soon to take forward a proposal to utilise Indian shipyards for repair and overhaul of American warships in the region. Such an arrangement, where US warships can be quickly turned around at Indian facilities, would be a key signal on the level of strategic partnership achieved.

“Closer military-military cooperation, increased engagement, information sharing and possible joint patrolling were discussed, with a focus on high end technology sharing,” officials added.

On the strategic front, the security scenario in the Indo-Pacific was discussed, with both sides sharing their commitment to peace and open access to all. The importance of the Quad initiative was appreciated during the talks and enhanced cooperation discussed. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is likely to visit the remaining quad nations — Japan and Australia — in the coming months.

On the Russia front, officials said that India’s position on the matter was explained in detail and has been understood by the US.

Comments

The India-US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, held amid the Russia-Ukraine war, has ticked all the bilateral boxes, with both nations reaffirming their commitment to enhancing defence and strategic cooperation in various domains, including relatively new ones such as space, artificial intelligence and cyberspace.

The US has reiterated its support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council and New Delhi’s induction into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). India is keen to join the elite club whose members are entitled to hassle-free procurement of supplies from international markets for building and operating nuclear reactors, but China has been playing spoilsport in league with Pakistan. As of now, India’s N-push is powered by initiatives under the India-US Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group. Timely transfer of technology holds the key to a mutually beneficial strategic partnership, particularly in defence and energy sectors. India and the US need to redouble efforts to get the best results on this front.

Both countries are on the same page when it comes to envisioning a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific and turning Quad into a formidable force that can make a lasting impact beyond its multilateral framework. With a new government set to take charge in Pakistan, it is significant that the troubled and troublesome country finds a mention in the joint statement. The ministers have called on Pakistan to take ‘immediate, sustained, and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks’. A similarly strong message has been conveyed to Afghanistan’s rulers, the Taliban. All in all, the dialogue makes it clear that India and the US will continue to give precedence to their common strategic interests, irrespective of geopolitical upheaval anywhere in the world.

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Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi on 25 March 2022, the first by a top Chinese official after the 2020 clashes. Neither Beijing nor New Delhi made an official announcement about Wang’s visit.

That Wang chose to visit was a surprise, that India agreed to the visit was a bigger one. The visit was considered a diplomatic breakthrough given the slump in bilateral ties since the standoff in Ladakh started in 2020.

Speaking after the visit, Jaishankar no time line was agreed upon for disengagement and de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). A parallel but a separate discussion took place in regard to sorting out the situation in border areas.  He said 15 rounds of talks were held between the Corps Commanders of the two Armies since April 2020 leading to some progress at several friction points.

Wang at OIC

Wang’s visit to New Delhi came just a day after his comments on Jammu and Kashmir at an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, managed to irk New Delhi.

At the OIC meeting before leaving for New Delhi, Wang said: “On Kashmir, we have heard again today the calls of many of our Islamic friends. And China shares the same hope.”

This drew a sharp reaction from the Ministry of External Affairs. The MEA spokesperson said: “We reject the uncalled reference to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his speech at the Opening Ceremony (of the OIC meeting).”

 “Matters related to the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir are entirely the internal affairs of India. Other countries, including China, have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India refrains from public judgement of their internal issues,” he said.

Delegation-level Talks

National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval told Wang Yi that there was a need to push for early and complete disengagement at the LAC for bilateral ties to return to their natural course.

During delegation-level talks at the South Block in the national capital, India made it clear that continuation of the present situation was not in mutual interest.

The Chinese side invited NSA Doval to visit China to take forward the mandate of Special Representatives on border issues. Doval responded positively to the invitation and said that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully.

Disengagement Proposal Rejected

The Indian Express reported that around the time of Wang’s visit, China had sent a proposal for disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point 15 in the Hot Springs area of eastern Ladakh.

“Government sources said China proposed that Indian troops, who have been in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Chinese troops at PP 15 for almost two years now, move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region,” the newspaper reported.

The proposal was rejected since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres even behind PP 16 which has never been claimed by China earlier.

State of India-China relations

Thousands of Indian troops remain deployed along India’s remote border with China in the Himalayan snow deserts of Ladakh, where hand-to-hand fighting broke out in June 2020.

At least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed during a clash in Ladakh’s Galwan valley – the first deadly encounter between the nuclear-armed neighbours in decades.

Their undemarcated 3,500-km-long frontier has remained largely peaceful since a border war in 1962, and both countries still claim vast swathes of each other’s territory.

After the Galwan clash, senior officers from both militaries held more than a dozen rounds of talks to de-escalate the standoff in Ladakh but progress has been limited.

Last February, after multiple military parleys, Indian and Chinese troops completed a pullout from a lake area in Ladakh. Days later, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar agreed to setup a hotline.

There has been little progress for disengagement from the Depsang Plains in north Ladakh. The Chinese have denied Indian troops access to their traditional patrolling points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 but the Chinese have moved machinery for roadbuilding behind these patrolling points.

A total of 15 rounds of talks has been held at the level of corp commanders between the two armies on disengagement from various parts of Ladakh. But progress has been slow.

Beijing has repeatedly said that border standoff does not represent the entirety of China-India relations, while New Delhi has maintained that peace along the frontier is essential for the two countries to work together.

New Delhi has numerous other concerns regarding China’s activities in almost all of India’s neighbours.

Aside from the tensions in the Himalayas, India’s mistrust stems from Beijing’s support of old foe Pakistan, the competition for influence in Nepal, and concern over China’s economic clout in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

Chinese Strategy

Unsettling signal from China show that it intends to continue the ‘string of pearls’ strategy to encircle India in South Asia.

By engaging with Afghanistan’s ruthless regime for rare earth and minerals, China is trying to use a vacuum where India has almost no leverage. Sri Lanka and Nepal’s infrastructure investments aim to cut India’s regional standing. Deep seaports in Myanmar extend that envelope. This is a strategy of boxing India in and flies in the face of Wang Yi’s assertion during his meetings in Delhi that China does not seek a unipolar Asia.

Defence Spending

The standoff in the high Himalayas is a costly undertaking. India is not walking the talk with its defence spending. China increased its defence budget by 7.1 per cent to $230 billion in 2022. It is three times that of India’s $70 billion in 2022.

Without spending at the very least three per cent of her GDP on defence, India will find it increasingly difficult to match China’s assertiveness on the borders.

Economic Lever

In the two years of the standoff, India’s trade deficit is a staggering $103 billion in China’s favour. The quality of this trade deficit is also startling. India exports primarily iron ore, aluminium, and agricultural commodities while importing finished products across consumer and industrial categories, like electronics, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, and infrastructure items from Beijing.

The trade lever is firmly in China’s hands. Apart from banning a few apps, Narendra Modi’s government has been unable to bring structural reforms over two years to dent this relationship.

Investment and App Bans

China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expanding exponentially since the turn of the century to $95.02 billion in 2021/22. Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises, operate in India, including electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market.

Since 2020, however, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players in Asia’s third largest economy by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

The Indian government had previously held up investments worth billions from Beijing, but last week said that approvals for 66 proposals from neighbouring countries – including China – totalling $1.79 billion had been approved.

In February, India also blocked access to dozens of Chinese apps over security concerns, increasing the tally of such restricted mobile apps to more than 300.

Comments

The India-China relationship has been at its lowest point in three decades since Beijing tore up a decade’s worth of agreements for maintaining peace and tranquility at the border and sent troops into India’s side of the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh in 2020.

If the Chinese intention was to gauge if India was ready to normalise ties, then the visit was structured inauspiciously. Wang, who is also a state councillor, arrived via Islamabad and Kabul. In Pakistan, he aired pro-Pakistan views on Kashmir at the foreign ministers’ conference of Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). In Afghanistan, he engaged the globally-slighted Taliban regime as it regresses to its old behaviour. A cold reception in New Delhi was thus expected. South Block judged correctly that the China’s obduracy required a riposte as the China’s need for de-escalation was now greater than India’s.

In 2017, China had similarly shown flexibility to resolve the Doklam stand-off after the BRICS meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Hamburg. Subsequently, not only China has dug deeper at positions near Doklam but showed no hesitation in widening the confrontation three years later in Ladakh.

The onus of normalisation of ties lies with Beijing. The presence of a large number of troops, in contravention of agreements, denotes an abnormality and is a clear signal that border disengagement and de-escalation remain non-negotiable for any restoration of ties.

No breakthrough or major announcement came out of Beijing’s outreach. The conversation in the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times veered around the need for New Delhi to change its attitude and play down the border clashes for a positive thrust, given the two neighbours’ relations with Russia, a line taken by Wang Yi himself. Both Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval, though, responded to the call for taking a ‘long-term view’ by sticking to the stance that the overall development of ties was intrinsically linked to resolution of the border issues.

The new escalatory cycle now can be broken. India’s neutrality over Ukraine addresses Chinese worry about Indian proximity to the United States, after the Quad meetings were raised to the summit level. But China’s tactical moves must not be mistaken for a strategic shift. India will continue to be seen as a potential rival.

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Maj Gen Deepak K Mehta

India’s neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine War could be viewed as a tilt towards Russia. To be coveted for support by both sides provided both opportunities and challenges, and could help shape India’s foreign policy postures to deal with the geopolitical turbulence that lies ahead.

The Russia-Ukraine clash made India walk a fine balance between a values-based foreign policy and stark geopolitical compulsions.

India cannot evade the economic impact of rise in prices of oil and several other commodities including agricultural products like refined oil.

US, Russia and China have wooed India to toe their line due to its global geopolitical standing, derived from its geography, size, population, economic and nuclear weapons.

India’s Initial Posture

Amid the Russian attack on Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed for an “immediate cessation of violence” in his phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 Feb 2022 and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue. He expressed his “long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue”, the PMO said.

This was a fine balancing act as it called for “immediate cessation of violence” – something the Western bloc would appreciate.

Earlier, India expressed “regret” – an upgrade from expressing “concern”, but stopped short of condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

One of India’s initial concerns was the Indian community in Ukraine, mostly medical students. Most were helped to leave through land borders in neighbouring countries — Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovak Republic – and many were air-lifted back to India. India also sent humanitarian aid and medical supplies to war-hit Ukraine in the evacuation flights.

External Affairs minister S Jaishankar got calls from the EU’s High Representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. The ambassadors of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) and Ukraine met in Delhi to express solidarity on what they called “Russia’s unjustifiable military aggression”.

UNSC Discussion

India sat on the fence and abstained on two UN Security Council resolutions. India’s abstention gave it the option of reaching out to both sides to find a middle ground as well as ensure the safety of its citizens in Ukraine.

India’s actions and statement during the discussion on United Nations Security Council Resolution, which sought to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, indicate that New Delhi saw it as an issue between NATO and Russia that should be resolved through dialogue. It abstained from the vote saying, “It is a matter of regret that diplomacy was given up. For these reasons, India has chosen to abstain from the resolution.”

There was Western criticism over India’s underwhelming and insufficient response at the UN Security Council to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. response was described as ‘careful, avoid angering Putin at all costs’ which expose its unpreparedness to step up to major power responsibilities or be a dependable partner.

But the fine print of India’s explanation for not voting and PM Modi’s conversation with Vladimir Putin show that India did convey the need for Moscow to step back.

Both at the UNSC and during the Modi-Putin phone call, New Delhi underlined the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations and immediate cessation of violence and hostilities. At the same time, India’s abstention showed its unwillingness to jump on the US bandwagon for a ‘strong collective response’ to the Russian invasion after witnessing the aftermath of previous such responses in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

India’s statement at the UN Security Council, made in an emergency meeting, said, “The Security Council had met two days ago and discussed the situation. We had called for urgent de-escalation of tensions and emphasized on sustained and focused diplomacy to address all issues concerning the situation.”

At the meeting, India’s Permanent Representative at the UN T S Tirumurti said, “However, we note with regret, that the calls of the international community to give time to the recent initiatives undertaken by parties to diffuse tensions were not heeded to.

“The situation is in danger of spiralling into a major crisis. We express our deep concern over the developments, which if not handled carefully, may well undermine the peace and security of the region.” He called for “immediate de-escalation and refraining from any further key to India’s engagements in Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held informal summits with only leaders of two countries — Putin and China’s Xi.

Growing Russia-China Proximity

India is worried about the Russia-China axis too. India is conscious that the hostility between the West and Russia is likely to push Moscow further in the direction of Beijing.

One of the key players which has been cautious in its response to the Ukraine crisis is China which is the real cause of worry for India. China seems to be gaining the most out of the situation.

Russia has carefully scripted an alternative path out, by increasingly courting China bilaterally and also at global forums. China and Russia are both permanent members of the United Nations security council and between them have a bilateral trade relationship of nearly $150 billion. Russia has carefully cultivated China (or vice versa) to develop an alternative “Russian” standard of international payment and settlement system.

What is worrying from India perspective is, the growing dependency of Russia on China for its survival which could turn the tables for India. India has had several decades of warm relationship with Russia, unhampered by regime changes. India’s dependence on Russian military equipment is a well-known fact. Growing proximity between Russia and China is a potential threat for future.

Russia has been calibrated in its statements on issues China is sensitive to, such as Huawei’s 5G rollout, Hong Kong and Covid-19. Beijing and Moscow, however, do not always see eye to eye with each other. China does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, and Moscow, formally speaking, takes a neutral stance on Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea.

Is it not possible that China can use Russia-like pluck and revised history to lay claim to large parts of Nepal and march up to the Terai region? What if Russia backs China’s aggression in the future?

Comments

There are no permanent friends nor enemies; only permanent interests. Building cooperative relationships based on common interests will continue to provide the sinews of crafting India’s strategy.

With pressure piling from the western bloc, led by the US, this is a test for New Delhi to make a strategic choice — principles and values on one side, and pragmatism and interests on the other side.

India’s dependence on Russia and the US for strengthening its military preparations can be expected to be leveraged by both Moscow and Washington  to pressurise New Delhi in terms of alignments on issues contested between them.

Strengthening India’s military power is an imperative and not a choice that can depend on foreign policy initiatives or depend on the goodwill of others.

The global chessboard of geopolitics is a mix of issue-based cross-purposes and theatre-specific agendas that often generate asymmetric perceptions. After dragging its feet, fence-sitting on Ukraine, India needs a gameplan.

Modi will have to use all his political and diplomatic skills and continuously navigate between competing US and Russian demands to ensure that India’s interests are protected.

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