Meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in the Uzbekistan city of Samarkand, Modi told Putin, “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.” He said democracy, diplomacy and dialogue have kept the world together.

Maintaining that Ukraine had rejected negotiations, Putin said Kyiv was set on achieving its own objectives “on the battlefield”.

Putin had made similar comments to Chinese President Xi Jinping on 15 September, saying he understood Beijing’s concerns over the conflict.

Putin told Modi, “We will do our best to stop this as soon as possible. However, unfortunately, the opposing side, the leadership of Ukraine, announced its refusal to continue negotiations and declared that they wanted to achieve their goals by military means, as they say ‘on the battlefield’. But nevertheless, we will always keep you informed of what is happening there.”

 “It is important that we constantly coordinate our positions,  despite the coronavirus restrictions: we spoke on the phone four times, our officials are constantly in contact with each other,” he said.

This was the first meeting of the two leaders since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 this year – and their most candid public conversation on the war between the two leaders. They have spoken at least four times in the last six months with Modi calling for cessation of hostilities and advocating the path of diplomacy and dialogue.

While India did not criticise the Russian invasion, it condemned the Bucha massacre in which innocent civilians were killed.

Putin said, “Constructive relations between our countries in the economic sphere are obviously developing. The trade turnover is growing, including due to, as you requested, additional deliveries of Russian fertilisers to the Indian market. Supplies of fertilisers from Russia to India increased by more than eight times – not by some percentage, but by more than eight times. I hope this will help Indian farmers solve the complex tasks of providing food for the country’s population.”

 “Large-scale joint projects in the oil and gas sector and nuclear power industry are consistently being implemented. For Russians, India’s rich history and ancient culture are traditionally of great interest. In this regard, we propose to intensify the negotiation process on an agreement on visa-free tourist trips. We could also consider holding the Cross Years of Russia and India in 2024,” he said.

After the meeting, Modi said, “Had a wonderful meeting with President Putin. We got the opportunity to discuss furthering India-Russia cooperation in sectors such as trade, energy, defence and more. We also discussed other bilateral and global issues.”

The Ministry of External Affairs, in a statement, said, “The leaders appreciated the sustained momentum in bilateral ties, including contacts at various levels. President Putin expressed appreciation for the Prime Minister’s video-message at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok earlier this month.”

“Discussions also pertained to global food security, energy security and availability of fertilisers in the context of the challenges emanating from the current geo-political situation,” it said.

“In the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Prime Minister reiterated his call for an early cessation of hostilities and the need for dialogue and diplomacy,” the MEA said.

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World politics and eco-nomics at present seems to be dictated by the Russian-Ukraine conflict. A war that no one thought would last this long is continuing despite sanctions, and the US, European Union (EU), China, Russia and India seem to be combatting the common conundrum of planning their next move. While it would be unfair to the devastating wars and humanitarian conflicts plaguing the global south, it would still not be wrong to say that the Russia–Ukraine War has put the perceived prowess and influence of international institutions to the test. The complete refusal by Russia to buckle under international pressure and, later, the sanctions imposed on the country is emblematic not just of the need to re-assess the working of international institutions but also a greater geopolitical shift in the accepted standard procedures of global politics.

The economic sanctions that have been imposed on Russia had a two-fold objective. While the foremost aim was to disrupt Russian economy and destabilise its logistical support to the troops, the additional aim was to deter nations from toeing the Russian line and send a message to countries, who continue to maintain a working relationship with Russia. Russian aggression against the erstwhile Soviet nation of Ukraine and the western reaction to it is being translated by some scholars as return to Cold War politics; however, the romanticisation of that bygone era fails to take into account some pertinent realities of the present geopolitical scenario.

The world that has so long been governed by the political and economic systems of the West is now witnessing and acknowledging a world that has multiple poles of power. This shift has led to a feeling of a relative levelling of the proverbial playing field. As the dynamics of geopolitics register a change, the reaction to the Russia–Ukraine conflict by the rest of the world is not all that the US had hoped it would be.

India’s abstentions in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and later in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not gone unnoticed by the US and the EU. Earlier, in April 2022, India played host to the foreign ministers of the UK and Russia along with a surprise visit by their counterpart from China, as well as dignitaries from the US. Such a reaction was elicited by India’s choice to continue their relationship with the Russians. While the US and EU want a democracy like India to openly condemn the aggression and invasion by Russia, it is in India’s strategic favour to continue a cordial working relationship with Moscow.

If one was to take lessons from history, India has been a non-aligned country and a move against the Russians could be viewed as a step towards the US and its allies. More importantly, the Indian armed forces depend primarily on Russia and Russian technology for their arms, vehicles, helicopters and frigates to mention a few. Conventional knowledge, which would be derived from instances in the past would also lead one to believe that Russia has proven to be a better strategic partner of India than the US. There is also the issue of geographical propinquity – Russia and India are geographically proximate countries that can potentially play a role in border disputes in the region. At the same time, it cannot be disregarded that Russia and India are also a part of multilateral platforms like Russia-India-China (RIC), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS), which play a pivotal role in evening the keel of global politics.

The Indian decision to abstain from voting against Russian aggression is a decision quite congruent with RealPolitik. The proverb about all politics being domestic holds true for the current scenario as India is holding its national interest supreme. As Russia and India come to an understanding that India would be able to import crude oil and gas from Russia at pre-war prices. it is in Indian strategic interest to continue energy trade with the country.

To circumvent the sanctions, India and Russia and the rest of the world are also exploring options of trade based on alternative currencies in place of the US dollar (USD). A similar agreement is being attempted between India and Iran to reduce the dependency upon the USD; it is also indicative of the greater shift towards a post-dollar world.

However, as the Indian stance has been condemned by the US and the EU; it has also been postulated that there could be rifts within the Quadrilateral Security Organisation (QUAD) as a repercussion of the Indian refusal to toe the American line. The QUAD is a derivative of the multinational group that was formed to lead the Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster R operations in the Indian ocean after the 2004 tsunami. The QUAD however, has evolved from a Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HADR) group to a strategic grouping in the Indian ocean primarily focused on containing the growing presence of China in the region.

Out of the four countries that make up the QUAD, the US, Japan, and Australia are allies and tend to follow a similar pattern when it comes to geopolitical decisions; however, for India there are no security guarantees from the US and, therefore, very little incentive for India to prioritise its national interests below the US diktat.

It is also imperative to understand that the purpose of the QUAD has no direct relation with Russia and the fact that its primary objective of containment of the Chinese expansion is a very real concern for QUAD member countries. The compulsion of reducing Chinese sphere of influence is the diving force behind the joint QUAD exercises and summits. Hence, the scenario of the threat of sanctions against India or a definitive rift in the QUAD seems like a distant possibility. It has been argued that the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) could replace the QUAD; however, that also has limited feasibility. India is an extremely important nation in Asia and its economic and military prowess outweighs that of Japan and/or Australia. India also has a network of well-established and long-term relationships in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and is a major player in the Indo–Pacific. The recent sale of the BrahMos missiles by India to Philippines and the interest that it has garnered from other countries of the region are emblematic of India’s significance in the Indian Ocean.

While the US would have liked an unequivocal denunciation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a complete debilitation of the Russian economy due to their sanctions, the reality is that nations have found ways to circumvent sanctions and continue international trade by moving on from the American dollar. As the world becomes more multi-polar, nations have begun to prioritise their national interests, and the US is now stuck in the reactionary cycles of an extremely globalised world where straightforward and uncomplicated actions have ceased to exist. The exigency of limiting China’s growth is as important as stopping Russia at the moment for the US. To balance the two, it must move in ways that forces Washington to make more concessions to nations as the “with us or against us” approach has become redundant.

The dynamics at play between the US, Russia, India and China are a precursor to what can be expected from global politics in the near future.

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This was seen as a foreign policy move that has not yet been taken by China or Russia, both of which have close strategic and economic ties with these five countries. With growing Chinese footprints in these countries in both the defence and security segment as well as the economic sphere, it has become imperative for India to have a “robust foothold” there, sources said.

India, which considers the Central Asian countries part of its “extended neighbourhood”, firmed up plans to hold the summit meeting when the foreign ministers of these countries visited New Delhi in December 2021 for the third round of the India-Central Asia Dialogue.

India had invited the presidents of the five Central Asian nations as chief guests at the Republic Day celebrations, which was to be followed by a summit meeting, but the plans were cancelled due to the spiralling third wave of the Covid pandemic.

PM Narendra Modi’s Address

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing the virtual summit featuring presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyz Republic, on 27 January, talked about an ‘ambitious vision’ for the future.

In his initial remarks at the Summit, Modi said, “We all are concerned about the Afghan situation and this makes cooperation between India and Central Asia all the more important for regional stability and security.”

The prime minister called for defining an ambitious vision for cooperation between India and Central Asia in the coming years.

Mutual cooperation between India and Central Asia is essential for regional security and prosperity, Modi said.

Modi had paid a visit to all Central Asian countries in 2015. Subsequently, there have been exchanges at high levels at bilateral and multilateral forums.

The event was held to commemorate 30 years of the establishment of India’s diplomatic relations with these nations, witnessed unanimity on taking cooperation to the next level for boosting regional connectivity and security. The leaders agreed on considerably enhancing India-Central Asia trade, which is only about $2 billion at present, nowhere near China’s over $40 billion.

The prime minister and the five presidents decided to set up a joint working group on Afghanistan, with a broad consensus emerging on issues such as combating terrorism and drug trafficking.

Increased Significance

In July 2015, Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit all Central Asian countries to boost strategic and trade ties. He also met the leaders of these countries in 2018 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting that was held in Qingdao. However, the strategic importance of the five Central Asian countries “has increased” ever since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021. New Delhi believes these countries will prove to be beneficial for India in having some sort of a channel open with the Taliban regime that is currently in power in Kabul, they said, even as the Modi government has started sending humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.

Ties between India and Central Asia started taking a decisive turn as the US government signed the so-called peace deal with the Taliban in February 2020, and fears began to mount about Afghanistan in the aftermath of the NATO’s pullout. Prior to that India mostly looked at Central Asia from the perspective of energy ties.

As India closed all its embassy and consulates in Afghanistan, it also took the initiative to host the Delhi Regional Security Dialogue in November 2021, which was chaired by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. All security chiefs from the five Central Asian nations attended the meeting along with Russia and Iran, to send a message to the Taliban government.

Chinese Influence

New Delhi’s Central Asian outreach assumes significance amid China’s efforts to strengthen ties with these nations that are part of the eight-member SCO, which also includes India. What gives Beijing a geopolitical edge is the fact that it shares borders with three of the five countries.

Two days before the India summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping interacted with Central Asian leaders and announced an assistance of $500 million to support livelihood programmes in these former Soviet bloc countries. He also listed several big projects of strategic importance that had been completed, including the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan highway and the China-Tajikistan expressway. In a bid to counter the Chinese challenge, India has extended a $1-billion line of credit for infrastructure development projects and offered to provide more training slots and scholarships to meet the requirements of Central Asian countries.

After the recent unrest in Kazakhstan, Russia sent troops there as part of a peacekeeping mission to restore order, while China firmly backed the beleaguered nation’s efforts to curb violence.

Background

“The inception of the India-Central Asia Dialogue at foreign ministers’ level, the 3rd meeting of which was held in New Delhi from 18 to 20 December 2021, has provided an impetus to India-Central Asia relations,” said an official statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs.

“The participation of the secretaries of National Security Councils of Central Asian countries in the Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan held in New Delhi on 10 November 2021 outlined a common regional approach on Afghanistan,” it added.

The issue of maintaining close ties with the Central Asian countries, when it comes to Afghanistan, was something that was also discussed between Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the India-Russia Summit held in December 2021.

Besides, India is also keen to strengthen trade and energy ties with the Central Asian countries with a focus on increasing connectivity. New Delhi has pushed for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the TAPI (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India) pipeline for natural gas during the summit.

Comments

The summit is a huge stride for India’s diplomacy and is a first step to carve out its zone of influence.

India should know what it wants out of the Central Asian region and use its influence accordingly. Countries with interests in Central Asia have their own groupings and connect: China from economic (BRI), Russia from strategic (CSTO), Turkey from ethnic (Turkic Council), and the Islamic world from the religious (OIC) It would be befitting for India to give a poignant cultural and historical perspective to the region through a summit-level annual meet. The aims are different – targeting Russia, sabotaging China’s BRI, thrusting Islamisation, economic linkages, military cooperation, trade, lobbying, etc.

Since the region is a critical lynchpin to India’s security policy, the summit will have a waterfall impact to facilitate India’s multifaceted approach towards the region. Central Asia carries no specific stance towards any country, with the exception of Russia. While their strategic visions are often  opaque, they are wary of China.

For three decades, Central Asia remained a cauldron of outside actors. Today, the main security provider to the region is Moscow, which considers Central Asia as its ‘near abroad.’

After the US forces left Afghanistan overnight, the Islamists too have been eyeing to launch their holy jihads to establish new Khilafats there. Regional analysts have estimated that some 8,000 ISIS and Takfiri extremists have been waiting in North Afghanistan to infiltrate across the 2,245 km long porous border.

While leaders of all five states of the CAR have visited India, yet, India’s commercial success has been negligible at a paltry $1.4 billion trade in 2019.

In 2017, India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) but SCO is only a sluice gate to regulate the Russian and Chinese and prevent them from dominating the region. Moscow tends to use it for regulating India-China tensions.

India’s civilisational influence and still enjoys a range of attributes. The Ferghana Valley was India’s crossing-point (to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) on the Great Silk Road to connect with China and Europe. Buddhism spread to the rest of Asia from here. This can be the basis of an annual summit. A string of cultural events highlighting the facets of medieval culture, art and painting, including Sufi traditions, should be highlighted.

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At a time when two member nations – India and China – are in confrontation at the borders, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defence Ministers’ meet was held on 4 September. India and China are two important members of SCO. The defence ministers of all eight SCO member nations deliberated on regional security challenges like terrorism and extremism and ways to deal with them collectively in Moscow.

India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh was on a 3-day visit to Moscow at the invitation of Russian defence minister General Shergei Shoigu. During the visit, he also took part in the meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Rajnath Singh said in a tweet said that India and Russia were privileged strategic partners.

It was Rajnath Singh’s second visit to Moscow since June. He had represented India at the Victory Day Parade in Moscow on the 24 June that commemorated the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

Russia has also invited external affairs minister S. Jaishankar to attend the SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting on 10 September.

ALSO READ: India, China hold border talks to clear LAC perceptions at Depsang

The SCO meeting brought Rajnath Singh face to face with his Chinese counterpart, Gen Wei Fenghe amid the border standoff.

Russia had ruled out the possibility of playing any sort of role in mediating between India and China. The Russian side was briefed by the Indian side on the border situation but there was no discussion on any sort of mediation.

Singh and Jaishankar travelled to Moscow largely because of the insistence of the Russian side, currently the chair of both BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and SCO.

These meetings were preceded by a virtual meeting of the foreign ministers of the BRICS grouping on 4 September. Chaired by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, the foriegn ministers at the BRICS meeting exchanged views on “topical international matters.” BRICS foreign ministers discussed cooperation in three key areas – politics and security, economics and finance and humanitarian ties.

The BRICS and SCO summits are expected to be held in St Petersburg in October.

India, China Defence Ministers’ Meet

Rajnath Singh met his Chinese counterpart Gen Wei Fenghe in Moscow on 4 September. The meeting was requested by the Chinese side. The meeting took place amid heightened tensions between the two countries triggered by China’s fresh attempts to occupy Indian territory in the southern bank of Pangong Tso lake in eastern Ladakh. Two days later, the two countries accused each other of opening fire in Ladakh.

In the first highest level contact after border tension erupted in Ladakh in May, Rajnath said ahead of the talks that peace and security in the region demands a climate of trust, non-aggression, peaceful resolution of differences and respect for international rules.

Defence secretary Ajay Kumar and Indian ambassador to Russia DB Venkatesh Varma were part of the Indian delegation at the talks.

ALSO READ: China talks peace but raises troop deployment

The meeting between Rajnath and Wei did not bring any positive results. In fact, the Chinese defence ministry claimed that  Rajnath Singh was told by his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe during their meeting in Moscow that “responsibility (recent events in Ladakh) lies entirely with India.”

The Chinese defence ministry further went on to suggest that relations between the two countries and the two militaries have been severely affected by the border issue. The cause and truth of current tension on the border between China and India are very clear, and the responsibility lay entirely with India.

Foreign Ministers Meet

Foreign minister S Jaishankar had a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, on 10 September, in an attempt to defuse tension after a spike in hostilities, on the sidelines of the SCO meet, amid hopes of a possible breakthrough in reducing tensions along the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

India and China decided to “expedite” work on a new set of confidence-building measures as soon as the ongoing standoff between forces in the Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) eases, according to a joint statement issued after the meeting of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Both sides agreed to “take guidance” from their respective leaders, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of “not allowing differences to become disputes” — an understanding that was reached during the last informal summit held between the two in Mamallapuram last year.

“The Ministers agreed that as the situation eases, the two sides should expedite work to conclude new Confidence Building Measures to maintain and enhance peace and tranquility in the border areas,” the joint statement said.

Enumerating a five-point agenda on the easing of tensions, the joint statement said, “The two Foreign Ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.”

SCO, BRICS and RIC

Historically speaking, arrangements such as the SCO, BRICS or RIC have been convenient tools for Russia to pivot away from the Western bloc and rebrand itself.

In the post-Cold War world, Moscow tried building bridges with the West, but its brief flirtation with liberalism did not extend to the world’s largest democracy, India. Russia saw the United States, Europe and China as the loci of economic and political power.

Russia soon turned its back to the West and toward Asia, to restore Russia’s former position in the international system. In 1998, the concept of the RIC was floated to balance U.S. power while, in the backdrop, NATO continued to bomb Serbia without waiting for Moscow’s nod. RIC would become the political nucleus for BRICS.

In June 2001, SCO was created, building on the Shanghai Five arrangement of 1996, with Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – as the sixth entrant — as founding members. India and Pakistan became full members of the grouping in 2017.

Together with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Putin’s programmatic vision for a “non-West” with Russian leadership revolved around BRICS, RIC as well as the SCO. But suspicions between Russia and China, fueled by history as well as power asymmetries, never quite faded away from the scene. India is a “balancing” force within these groupings.

In the Russia-China relationship cracks are beginning to show and India could serve as a valuable link to the United States, if Moscow might seek to pivot back to the West. 

Exercise Kavkaz 20

India pulled out its contingent to the multinational military exercise Kavkaz-2020, a multilateral tri-services held in Astrakhan region of southern Russia on 15-27 September. The exercise was to bring together some 13,000 troops from 20 countries, including the eight members of SCO. India cited the COVID-19 pandemic for the pull-out. Both China and Pakistan were participating in the exercise.

China’s participation in the exercise was also a reason for India to pull out of the multilateral tri-services military exercise. While India was locked in a military conflict with the Chinese in eastern Ladakh and on high alert all along the 4,000 kilometre Line of Actual Control (LAC), it could not be business as usual for India troops to be participating in multilateral military exercises with them.

India, Pakistan and all SCO member-nations had participated in Exercise Tsentr last year.

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