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India’s arms imports fell 11% between 2013-17 and 2018-22, but the country is still the world’s top importer of military hardware, a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said on Monday. The report comes at a time when India has sharpened its focus on achieving self-reliance in defence manufacturing.

India’s share of the global arms imports was the highest in the past five years at 11%, followed by Saudi Arabia (9.6%), Qatar (6.4%), Australia (4.7%) and China (4.7%), according to data published by the think tank that measures weapons imports over five-year periods.

The latest report is in line with what last year’s Sipri report said. In 2022, it said India’s imports fell 21% between 2012-16 and 2017-21, but that the country was still the world’s biggest arms importer. The new report said the reasons for the decline in India’s imports included attempts to replace imports with local makes and a complex procurement process.

India has taken a raft of measures over the past four to five years to boost self-reliance in defence. These include creating a separate budget for buying locally made military hardware, increasing foreign direct investment from 49% to 74%, and notifying hundreds of weapons and systems that cannot be imported and are planned to be indigenised over the next five to six years.

Around ₹1 lakh crore was set aside for domestic procurement in this year’s defence budget, compared to ₹84,598 crore, ₹70,221 crore and ₹51,000 crore in the three previous years.

“The Indian military is large and will continue to import weapons and systems for some more years. The decline in India’s arms imports is a significant achievement. Imports will drop further as indigenisation efforts succeed,” said Air Marshal Anil Chopra (retd), director general, Centre for Air Power Studies.

The ranking system is dynamic as it depends on how orders are placed in a particular year. For instance, the 2019 Sipri report said India was no longer the world’s largest importer of weapons, a position it held for decades, with Saudi Arabia topping the global share of arms imports between 2014 and 2018. Saudi Arabia accounted for 12% of the global share of arms imports in that period, followed by India in second place with a 9.5% share.

According to new Sipri data, the US was the world’s topmost military exporter in the past five years, accounting for 40% of global exports, followed by Russia (16%), France (11%), China (5.2%) and Germany (4.2%). US arms exports jumped 14% between 2013-17 and 2018-22, while Russia’s fell 31% during the same period. Russia’s imports to India fell 37%.

“It is likely that the invasion of Ukraine will further limit Russia’s arms exports. This is because Russia will prioritise supplying its armed forces and demand from other states will remain low due to trade sanctions on Russia and increasing pressure from the USA and its allies not to buy Russian arms,” said Siemon T Wezeman, senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme.

On March 3, chief of defence staff General Anil Chauhan said self-reliance in defence manufacturing was one of the biggest lessons for India from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the three services will have to be the driving force for the campaign to succeed.

“We can’t be dependent on military supplies from outside. We have taken some baby steps towards self-reliance in the last two to three years. The government has taken a large number of initiatives to boost it. I think for this campaign to succeed, the three services will have to be the driving force,” Chauhan said at the Raisina Dialogue.

Ukraine was the third biggest importer of major arms in 2022, and the 14th biggest during 2018-22, Sipri said.

France’s arms exports jumped 44% between 2013-17 and 2018-22, with India receiving 30% of its exports during the past five years, the report said, adding that France had displaced the US as the second largest supplier of arms to India after Russia.

“France is gaining a bigger share of the global arms market as Russian arms exports decline, as seen in India,” said Wezeman.

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This was discussed in a meeting chaired by defence minister Rajnath Singh on 8 July on targets to be achieved by India by 2047 as part of the Narendra Modi government’s Vision@2047. Other major targets discussed at the meeting were increasing the number of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the defence sector to 45,000 from 15,000 at present.

India’s defence exports in 2020-21 stood at Rs 13,000 crore, Sanjay Jaju, additional secretary (defence production), said. The Rs 2.6 lakh crore target by 2047 would hence amount to increasing the exports by nearly 20 times, the top source in the government said.

Indian defence exports have grown almost six times from Rs 1,500 crore to Rs 9,000 crore in the past five years, in which the participation of the private sector stands at 90 per cent, as per ministry of defence data. These exports are broadly going to 84 countries. A Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report of 2020 stated that India stands in the list of the top 25 countries in defence exports.

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Until recently, India bought almost all its frontline weaponry from Russia. Researchers at the Stimson Center calculate that, about 85% of India’s major weapons are overwhelmingly of Russian origin. Moreover, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says that “new orders [from India] for a variety of Russian arms in 2019–20… will probably lead to an increase in Russian arms exports in the coming five years.”

The Indian government’s unwillingness to condemn Russia forcefully for its invasion of Ukraine seems to have raised the question amongst US leaders – how to wean the Indian military off its dependence on Russian arms. The fact is that, like all developing nations, India confronts an impossible trinity when it comes to weapons programs: It cannot simultaneously achieve autonomy, affordability and quality.

New Delhi has long talked of diversifying the suppliers to its huge armed forces, and even making more equipment at home, objectives that have taken on new urgency since Russia’s invasion.

India has identified $324 million worth of defence equipment it wants domestic firms to make this year, and avoid buying abroad, according to an online platform where the defence ministry lists its needs.

Defence transition is always a slow evolutionary process. Suppliers cannot be switched overnight.

Russian Imports

India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, although it has scaled back that relationship of late. Russia has historically supplied the majority of India’s military hardware, including fighter jets and missiles, as well as almost all its tanks and helicopters. Modi’s government has told the US the alternatives to moving away completely from Russian weapons imports are too expensive.

Over the past decade, India has bought more than $4 billion worth of military equipment from the US and more than $25 billion from Russia, according to SIPRI, which collects data on arms transfers. India’s dependence on Russia for weapons against neighbors China and Pakistan is a big reason Modi’s government has avoided criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine. As the US, Europe, Australia and Japan piled economic sanctions on Russia, India has held off and instead continued imports of discounted Russian oil.

Russia woos India

On the other hand, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said, on 20 April, that Russia could give India any defence platform and weaponry it wants. He also termed the transfer of defence technology to India as “unprecedented” among the foreign nations that India has ties with.

Asked about the Sino-Indian border dispute, he said: “We welcome the discussions between India and China”, adding that Russia wanted to further strengthen the trilateral Russia-India-China (RIC) format that he said was envisaged by Moscow way back in 1996 and made a reality.

Affordability and Autonomy

Shifting toward buying more Western weapons systems and lessening its dependence on Russia, for instance, would bolster India’s autonomy. But the country would have to sacrifice affordability, meaning it wouldn’t be able to buy as much. India is spending $5.5 billion on the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile platform. The U.S.-made Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system costs about six times that much and isn’t even as versatile.

India  is highly unlikely to want to rely on anyone else for essential defense requirements. In its last full-scale war with Pakistan, in 1971, India found itself constantly short of artillery shells and had to secretly import mortars from Israel. Insufficient weapons on hand represent a loss of autonomy that no Indian government could possibly countenance.

Self Reliance

For decades, India has tried to establish a local defense industry, building its own battle tank and jet. The Arjun, the Indian Army complains, can not be part of any battle plans on the canal-heavy, militarized border with Pakistan. It weighs almost 70 tons and would collapse most bridges in the Punjab. By contrast, Russia’s T-90 tank weighs less than 50 tons.

The Indian Air Force has a long list of reasons why the Tejas is not good enough: Its payload is smaller than the F-16’s, the plane takes too long to service and so on.

Indigenization offers affordability and autonomy, at the cost of quality. The Indian state’s toxic relationship with the private sector is one of the biggest obstacles to indigenizing weapons production. But if Indian leaders want a reliable and affordable pipeline of weapons of decent quality that arrive quickly enough to deter an aggressive China, they are going to have to fund domestic defence companies, increase military budgets, and field less powerful weapons until they can develop better ones.

US Preparing Package

The US and its allies have sought to woo Modi’s government as a key security partner – against China in the Indo-Pacific region. Links between the US and India have steadily deepened over the past two decades, with the two sides reaching agreements that allow for more interoperability between their military platforms.

The US is preparing a military aid package for India to deepen security ties and reduce its dependence on Russian weapons. The package under consideration would include foreign military financing of as much as $500 million, which would make India one of the largest recipients of such aid behind Israel and Egypt. It’s unclear when the deal would be announced, or what weapons would be included.

Fixing the problem is going to take time. And it won’t happen unless the Indian defense establishment is willing to make some hard choices. The effort is part of a much larger initiative by President Joe Biden’s administration to court India as a long-term security partner, despite its reluctance to criticize Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Washington wants to be seen as a reliable partner for India across the board, and the administration is working with other nations including France to make sure Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has the equipment it needs. While India is already diversifying its military platforms away from Russia, the US wants to help make that happen faster.

The major challenge remains how to provide India major platforms like fighter jets, naval ships and battle tanks. The administration is looking for a breakthrough in one of these areas. The financing package being discussed would do little to make those types of systems — which can cost billions or tens of billions of dollars — more affordable, but it would be a significant symbolic sign of support. Still, it remains to be seen how far India will go in accepting US military assistance.

The Biden administration has signaled that it was not interested in sanctioning New Delhi over its recent decision to buy the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. Turkey’s purchase of the same system deeply damaged US ties with the NATO ally.

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Citing the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Minister of State for Defence Ajay Bhatt said India’s spending between 2011 and 2020 rose 76 per cent as against the global average of 9 per cent.

In reply to questions about low defence spending as a percentage of GDP, posed by DMK’s TR Baalu, Bhatt said, “The overall trend in defence spending is based on defence capability development requirements and the expenditure on defence services, including modernisation, and has been increasing year after year. Defence budget which was Rs 2,53,346 crore in 2013-14 has more than doubled to Rs 5,25,166 crore in 2022-23. More importantly, spending under capital outlay which includes modernisation and infrastructure development of the defence services, has grown by 76 per cent to Rs 1,52,370 crore in 2022-23 from Rs 86,741 crore in 2013-14. The defence budget is the highest among all ministries.”

Bhatt said it is not correct to say defence spending trends are not encouraging. He assured the House that there is no shortage in the defence budget. He quoted SIPRI to say India is the third highest spender on defence after the US and China.

“There is no shortage of budget. Also in 2020, India for the first time reached the 25th spot among defence export nations for the first time,” Bhatt added.

Intervening in the reply, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the Kargil Review Committee which studied the defence expenditure issue in detail had not recommended fixing of the defence budget as a percentage of the GDP.

“The committee had illustrious members who were not in favour of fixing the defence budget as a percentage of the GDP and had recommended targeting of maximum value against every rupee spent. The committee said there was no need for a fixed GDP to budget allocation ratio and advised prioritisation of defence spending, restructuring of restructure forces efficiency in defence production. We are doing all that the panel said,” Singh said after Baalu argued that defence spending was only 2.33 per cent of the GDP, lower than in the US and Russia.

Bhatt said the Indian borders are secure and the PM had authorised the forces “to address any security concerns there and then”.

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According to the researchers, the total amount for 2019 represents an increase of 3.6% from 2018 and the largest annual growth in spending since 2010, making military spending reach the highest point since the end of the Cold War. The researchers based their calculations on official government information, such as that found in national budgets. A country’s military expenditure as a share of GDP-also known as the military burden-is the simplest measure of the relative economic burden the military places on that country.

Globally, countries spent a total of $1.917 trillion on defence in 2019, equating to 2.2% of global gross domestic product, or $249 per citizen.

Largest Spenders

The five largest spenders in 2019, which accounted for 62% of expenditure with $1.2 trillion, were the United States, China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

For the first time, two Asian countries were among the top three, with China and India spending an estimated $261 billion (up 5.1%) and $71.1 billion (up 6.8%) respectively. While US military spending declined by 15% overall over the past decade, Chinese increased by 85% between 2010 and 2019.

In addition to China and India, Japan ($47.6 billion) and South Korea ($43.9 billion) were the largest military spenders in Asia and Oceania. Military expenditure in the region has risen every year since at least 1989.

Despite various armed conflicts, spending in the Middle East decreased by 7.5%. However, the SIPRI report has only partially recorded expenditure in the region since 2015 as no reliable data has been available for Yemen, Qatar, Syria and the United Arab Emirates.

US Defence Expenditure

Military spending by the United States grew by 5.3 per cent to a total of $732 billion in 2019 and accounted for 38 per cent of global military spending. The increase in US spending in 2019 alone was equivalent to the entirety of Germany’s military expenditure for that year.

For the US it marked the second year of growth with 5.3% after seven years of decline, making the country alone accounting for 38% of global spending. The increase was due to recruitment of additional personnel and nuclear and conventional weapons modernisation and return to a competition of the great powers.

European Countries

In Europe, expenditure rose more rapidly than in any other region by a total of 5% compared to 2018 and 8.8% to 2010, amounting to a total expenditure of $356 billion. In Asia and Oceania, expenditure grew by 4.8%, in North and South America by 4.7%.

Five of the world’s 15 largest military spenders are in Europe: Russia (rank 4), France (rank 6), Germany (rank 7), the UK (rank 8) and Italy (rank 12).

The French rise in 2019 by 1.6% to reach $50.1 billion followed the adoption of the Military Planning Law for 2019-25, which aims to bring France’s military spending in line with the NATO target of 2% of GDP by 2025.

Germany’s military spending rose by 10% in 2019 to $49.3 billion, the highest growth among the top 15 with almost 50 billion spent on defence in 2019. Overall Germany was also the country with the highest expenditure in the EU. According to the report, German military spending in 2019 was the highest since 1993, when the military burden was 1.7% of GDP compared to currently only 1.3%,

The growth in German military spending can partly be explained by the perception of an increased threat from Russia, shared by many North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states . Germany will reach a NATO defence spending target by 2031, its defence minister said on Thursday (7 November), missing a 2024 deadline agreed by the allies who are under heavy US pressure to beef up their military budgets. The total military spending by all 29 NATO member states was $1.035 trillion in 2019.

There were sharp increases in military expenditure among NATO member states in Central Europe: for example, Bulgaria’s increased by 127 per cent-mainly due to payments for new combat aircraft-and Romania’s rose by 17 per cent. Total military spending by all 29 NATO member states was $1035 billion in 2019.

Poland, which accounted for 38% of the Central Europe total in 2019, increased its military spending by 51% over the decade 2010-19.

In 2019, Bulgaria had the highest relative increase in military spending of any country in the world with 127%, mainly due to payments for eight new combat aircraft.

UK’s military expenditure was unchanged in 2019 at $48.7 billion, but with 1.7% of GDP at its lowest level since 1950.

European countries buying more and more American fighter planes. All of Europe finds American fighter planes attractive, with first Slovakia and Romania and soon Bulgaria and Croatia opting to purchase these machines.

Russia

In 2019 Russia was the fourth-largest spender in the world and increased its military expenditure by 4.5 per cent to $65.1 billion. At 3.9 per cent of its GDP, Russia’s military spending burden was among the highest in Europe in 2019.

Post Covid-19 Spending

As the world heads for a potential global recession, governments will have to weigh military spending against other sectors, such as healthcare and education. It is highly likely that this will really have an impact on military spending. But the fall in spending would, however, not last.

 In Europe, NATO has encouraged its members to maintain their military spending despite the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, suggesting that military can play a role in helping to mitigate the crisis.

Several European countries had used their armed forces to enforce checks after introducing border controls in an attempt to contain the outbreak.

In 2019, spending targets of 2% GDP were fulfilled by only eight European NATO members, according to the Alliance’s annual report.

Africa

The combined military expenditure of states in Africa grew by 1.5 per cent to an estimated $41.2 billion in 2019-the region’s first spending increase for five years.

Armed conflict is one of the main drivers for the volatile nature of military spending in sub-Saharan Africa. For example, in the Sahel and Lake Chad region, where there are several ongoing armed conflicts, military spending in 2019 increased in Burkina Faso (22 per cent), Cameroon (1.4 per cent) and Mali (3.6 per cent) but fell in Chad (-5.1 per cent), Niger (-20 per cent) and Nigeria (-8.2 per cent). Among Central African countries that were involved in armed conflict, military spending in 2019 rose overall. The Central African Republic (8.7 per cent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (16 per cent) and Uganda (52 per cent) all increased military spending in 2019.

India Military Expenditure

India, with the third-largest military budget, increased spending by 6.8% – the highest increase in the top five. India’s military expenses have risen significantly over the past few decades. Over the 30-year period between 1990 and 2019, its spending grew by 259 per cent. In 2010-19 decade, the expenses grew by 37 per cent, the report said. However, the country’s military burden fell from 2.7 per cent of the Indian GDP in 2010 to 2.4 per cent in 2019.

India’s “tensions” and “rivalry” with Pakistan and China are among the main reasons for its increased military expenditure. India’s military spending grew by 6.8 percent to $71.1 billion in 2019, according to the SIPRO report on “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2019”. This was the highest military spending in South Asia.

India’s military spending has also grown due to an expanding salary and pension bill of its armed forces personnel and capital expenditure for procuring warships, submarines, aircraft and helicopters.

In 2018, India was the fourth largest military spender, a spot below Saudi Arabia. India had spent $66.5 billion in 2018. In 2019, Saudi Arabia’s decrease and the increase in Russia’s spending (4.5 per cent) led to Russia moving to fourth position from fifth, while Saudi Arabia fell from third to fifth.

Pakistan

In comparison, Pakistan’s military expenditure rose by 70% over the decade 2010-19, to reach $10.3 billion while the military burden increased from 3.4% of GDP in 2010 to 4% in 2019, says the report. Pakistan was at the 24th position in 2019 compared to 19th in 2018.

China

China, the world’s second-largest military spender, is estimated to have allocated $261 billion to the military in 2019-equivalent to 14 per cent of the global military expenditure. Its military spending in 2019 was 5.1 per cent higher than in 2018 and 85 per cent higher than in 2010. “China’s military expenditure has increased continuously since 1994 (for 25 consecutive years). The growth in its military spending has closely matched the country’s economic growth. Between 2010 and 2019, China’s military burden remained almost unchanged, at 1.9 per cent of its GDP,” the SIPRI report stated.

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