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China is fielding two types of land-based ballistic missiles with a capability of hitting ships at sea-the DF-21D, a road-mobile anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) with a range of more than 1,500 kilometers (i.e., more than 910 nautical miles), and the DF-26, a road-mobile, multi-role intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a maximum range of about 4,000 kilometers (i.e., about 2,160 nautical miles) that DOD says “capable of conducting both conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets.”

Until 2020, reported test flights of DF-21s and SDF-26s had not involved attempts to hit moving ships at sea. A November 14, 2020, press report, stated that an August 2020 test firing of DF-21 and DF-26 ASBMs into the South China resulted in the missiles successfully hitting a moving target ship south of the Paracel Islands. A December 3, 2020, press report stated that Admiral Philip Davidson, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, “confirmed, for the first time from the U.S. government side, that China’s People’s Liberation Army has successfully tested an anti-ship ballistic missile against a moving ship.”

In April 2022, it was reported that China may have developed a new type of ASBM, perhaps designed the YJ-21, that is small enough to fit into the vertical launch tube of a surface combatant, and that China had test fired such a weapon from a Type 055 cruiser (or large destroyer).

China reportedly is also developing hypersonic glide vehicles that, if incorporated into Chinese ASBMs, could make Chinese ASBMs more difficult to intercept.

Observers have expressed strong concerns about China’s ASBMs, because such missiles, in combination with broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting systems, would permit China to attack aircraft carriers, other U.S. Navy ships, or ships of allied or partner navies operating in the Western Pacific. The U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea. For this reason, some observers have referred to ASBMs as a “game-changing” weapon. 

Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs)

China’s extensive inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) includes both Russian- and Chinese-made designs, including some advanced and highly capable ones, such as the Chinese-made YJ-18.

Although China’s ASCMs do not always receive as much press attention as China’s ASBMs (perhaps because ASBMs are a more-recent development), observers are nevertheless concerned about them. As discussed later in this report, the relatively long ranges of certain Chinese ASCMs have led to concerns among some observers that the U.S. Navy is not moving quickly enough to arm U.S. Navy surface ships with similarly ranged ASCMs.

Press reports in April 2019 and December 2021 state that China might be developing a YJ-18 launcher that can be packaged inside a standard commercial shipping container, for the potential purpose of surreptitiously deploying YJ-18s on merchant ships, a capability that, if implemented, could violate the law of naval warfare.

Submarines

Overview

China has been steadily modernizing its submarine force, and most of its submarines are now built to relatively modern Chinese and Russian designs. Qualitatively, China’s newest submarines might not be as capable as Russia’s newest submarines, but compared to China’s earlier submarines, which were built to antiquated designs, its newer submarines are much more capable.

Types and Numbers

Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSs). China also operates a small number of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and a small number of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The number of SSNs and SSBNs may grow in coming years, but the force will likely continue to consist mostly of SSs. DOD states that “the PLAN has placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine force, but its force structure continues to grow modestly as it works to mature its force, integrate new technologies, and expand its shipyards. The PLAN will likely maintain between 65 and 70 submarines through the 2020s, replacing older units with more capable units on a near one-to-one basis.” ONI states that “China’s submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units. Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.” ONI projects that China’s submarine force will grow from a total of 66 boats (4 SSBNs, 7 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2020 to 76 boats (8 SSBNs, 13 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2030.

China’s newest series-built SS design is the Yuan-class (Type 039) SS, its newest SSN class is the Shang-class (Type 093) SSN, and its newest SSBN class is the Jin (Type 094) class SSBN. 

DOD states that “the PRC continues to increase its inventory of conventional submarines capable of firing advanced anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the PLAN purchased 12 Russian-built Kilo class SS units, eight of which are capable of launching ASCMs. China’s shipyards have delivered 13 Song class SS (Type 039) and 17 Yuan class diesel-electric (SSPs) (Type 039A/B). The PRC is expected to produce a total of 25 or more Yuan class submarines by 2025.” DOD states further:

“Over the past 15 years, the PLAN has constructed twelve nuclear submarines-two Shang I class SSNs (Type 093), four Shang II class SSNs (Type 093A), and six Jin class SSBNs (Type 094). Equipped with the CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the PLAN’s six operational Jin class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. Each Jin class SSBN can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs. In 2019, Beijing displayed these missiles at the PRC’s 70th anniversary parade, revealing that at least a full complement of 12 JL-2s are complete and operational. The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN, which likely began construction in the early 2020s, will reportedly carry a new type of SLBM. The PLAN is expected to operate the Type 094 and Type 096 SSBNs concurrently and could have up to eight SSBNs by 2030. This would align with Chairman Xi Jinping’s 2018 directive for the SSBN force to achieve “stronger growth.”

By the mid-2020s, the PRC will likely build the Type 093B guided-missile nuclear attack submarine. This new Shang class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if equipped with land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs).

In February 2022, the first of a new class of SS, smaller than the Yuan design, was reported, but it is not clear whether this design is intended for China’s navy, for export to other countries, or both.

A May 16, 2022, press report states:

“A submarine seen in a satellite photo of a Chinese shipyard shows what could be a new class or subtype of a nuclear-powered attack sub with a new stealthy propulsion system and launch tubes for cruise missiles.”

The satellite photo of the shipyard at Huludao in Liaoning province, northern China, which was provided to Defense News by Planet Labs, was taken May 3 and shows a submarine on a drydock.

The unidentified boat’s presence at the yard was first noted in an April 29 satellite image by geospatial intelligence outfit AllSource Analysis. The organization said the submarine is possibly a new class undergoing construction by China.

Submarine Weapons

China’s submarines are armed with one or more of the following: ASCMs, wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes, and mines. Wake-homing torpedoes can be very difficult for surface ships to decoy. Each Jin-class SSBN is armed with 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). A May 2, 2021, press report stated that China’s latest Jin-class SSBN is armed with a new and longer-ranged SLBM called the JL-3.

Based on the US Congressional Reserach Service Report on China Naval Modernisation, Nov 2022

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In its December 29 report, the magazine declared that the submersible ballistic nuclear submarine (SSBN), known simply as S4, was launched on November 23 and had been ‘relocated’ to near the ‘fitting-out wharf’ that was presently occupied by INS Arighat, the second such nuclear-armed missile submarine. Arighat was launched in November 2014, and currently awaits commissioning that has reportedly been delayed possibly due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Janes said. Consequently, the Indian press had not reported the S4 SSBN’s launch.

The British publication further reported that satellite imagery had confirmed that at 7,000-tonnes, the S4 SSBN was ‘slightly larger’, with a load water line measurement of 125.4m compared with 111.6m of the 6,000-tonne INS Arihant, the lead boat in this class. It categorised the S4 – and successive boats – as ‘Arihant-stretch’ variants.

The magazine went on to infer that the satellite imagery indicated that the newly launched boats’ additional length ‘accommodates expansion of the submarine’s vertical launch system which has doubled to support eight (missile) launch tubes’. This, it said, would enable the SSBN to carry eight K-4 submarine launched ballistic missile missiles (SLBM), or alternately 24 K-15 SLBMs with respective strike ranges of 3,500 km and 750 km, respectively. The K-4 SLBM, however, remains under development and its pontoon launch is anticipated.

Developed jointly by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), select Indian Navy (IN) personnel and Russian scientists and technicians, the S4 boat and the follow-on, under-fabrication S4* like the previous two SSBNs, comprise a critical part of India’s three-tier credible nuclear deterrent. India plans on eventually fielding at least four such SSBNs, with an option to build two more, to add maritime strike capability to its existing land and aerial-based capacity in delivering strategic weapons.

Russia’s involvement in the programme in designing the SSBNs and miniaturising their reactors have long been an open, though downplayed secret amongst naval, atomic and strategic community personnel. But Arihant’s launch ceremony in July 2009 was the first time it was publicly acknowledged through the presence of the Russian naval design team and their country’s then ambassador V.I. Trubnikov. Such sensitive cooperation is also one of the underpinnings of the enduring strategic and military cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.

Meanwhile, Arihant, which was also constructed at the SCB, was quietly commissioned into the Indian Navy in August 2016 and completed its 20-day maiden deterrence patrol over two years in November 2018. Delayed by some 15-18 years, the SSBN was scheduled to conduct its first deterrence patrol in 2017, but was reportedly damaged early that year after its propulsion compartment was flooded while in Visakhapatnam harbour. The Hindu had reported in January 2018 that water had rushed into the boat ten months ago, after a hatch at the rear of the platform was left open, a claim that was never officially confirmed nor denied.

Industry and naval sources said Arihant’s on-board systems had ‘broadly’ been duplicated in the two follow-on boats, including Arighat and the S4, which awaits formal naming.

Exact details of Arihant’s powerplant are unclear, but it is understood to be propelled by an 82.5 MW pressurised light water reactor (LWR), turning a single seven-bladed screw to achieve submerged sprint speeds of 24 kt, or about 10 kt on the surface. Its principal strategic weapon load comprises 12 K-15/B-05 indigenously developed SLBMs fired from four vertical-launch tubes and each carrying a 5-tonne nuclear payload out to a range of 750 km. The S4, on the other hand, will potentially be better armed eventually as development of the DRDO-designed K-4 SLBM would have been completed by the time the SSBN is ready for commissioning.

Also involved in the SSBN programme are private defence contractor Larsen & Toubro (L&T), tasked with constructing their hulls at its Hazira facility in Gujarat and building the vertical launcher to test the K-15 SLBM. L&T also installed Arihant’s three 533 mm torpedo tubes believed to fire Russian TEST-71ME-NK variants.

Other private companies, such as Walchandnagar Industries, provided Arihant’s gearbox and shafting, while Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division in collaboration with UK’s BAE Systems designed a platform management system and electronic warfare consoles for the combat management system (CMS). The state-owned Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) supplied Arihant’ s two sonar systems – USHUS and Panchendriya – designed by the DRDO’s Naval Physical and Oceanographic Laboratory. Panchendriya is a weapons control system that contains surveillance, passive, intercept and active features, in addition to doubling as an underwater communication system.

BEL also developed Arihant’s CMS, while a handful of Israeli and French companies provided an assortment of radar, sensors, communication equipment, and anti-torpedo countermeasures among other systems and sub-assemblies. Numerous domestic micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) too were part of the SSBNs supply chain, acquiring in the process expertise in welding submarine hull sections capable of withstanding immense pressure at significant depths. They also supplied a host of pipes, pumps, cables, compressors, air-conditioning equipment and generators, in support of the navy’s wider indigenisation endeavours.

Built with Russian steel, broadly equivalent to the US HY-80 grade, Arihant is divided into seven compartments, with main divisions for the propulsion system – acoustically damped and sealed into a 600-tonne titanium shell circa 10 m in diameter – the CMS, platform management centre, and torpedo room. It also features a double hull, sandwiching ballast tanks. Two stand-by auxiliary engines and a retractable thruster provide the SSBN with emergency power and mobility to meet operational eventualities.

The SSBN programme will eventually be supplemented by the separate indigenous production – also at the SCB – of six nuclear-powered attack submarines (that come under the SSN category) for the Indian Navy, which were first approved by the Union government in early 2015. Janes had earlier reported in late November that the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) was expected to imminently sanction around Rs 50,000 crore to build three of these 6,000-tonne SSNs, with the first boat scheduled for completion by 2032-33.

Financial sanction for the remaining three SSNs that were expected to incorporate over 95% of locally sourced content would ‘follow subsequently’ once the programme progressed, the magazine said. The entire SSN programme would span a 25-year period from when the boat’s construction first started, it added.

The Indian Navy’s 1999 submarine building programme – delayed by almost a decade – had envisaged a force of 24 ‘hunter-killer’ diesel-electric conventional submarines (that comes under the SSK category) with air independent propulsion (AIP) and land-attack capability, which were scheduled to have joined service by 2029-30. But delays in inducting the SSKs, and an emerging unstable regional maritime security environment, had prompted the Indian Navy to recently opt for six SSNs instead to provide it greater operational flexibility.

“In its quest to become a Blue Water force, it’s imperative for the Indian Navy to acquire SSN capability if it wants to shape the maritime battlespace in the increasingly restive Indian Ocean Region,” said Indian Navy Commodore Anil Jai Singh (retired). It’s only an SSN that can constitute the cutting edge of the Indian Navy’s offensive capability, either by themselves or as part of an aircraft carrier battle group, the former submariner added.

Other navy officers said the SSN programme would ‘harness’ the know-how and technologies gained from the SSBN project, but questioned the inexplicable lack of expertise in domestically building conventional submarines, for which foreign original equipment manufacturer (OEM) assistance remained imperative.

The Indian Navy is presently evaluating responses to the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) July 2021 tender to two domestic shipyards to construct six SSKs with AIP and land-attack capability in collaboration with one of the five overseas OEMs under the P75(I)-India project worth over Rs 43,000 crore.

“All these variegated achievements (in designing and building SSBNs) are spread thinly across the technological spectrum without any coordination to secure success in key thrust areas, especially with regard to enhancing the country’s overall military capability,” said Amit Cowshish, former MoD financial advisor on acquisitions. Unfortunately, these successes are isolated, he lamented, adding that India also ironically qualifies for yet another major global distinction: as the world’s second largest arms importer between 2016 and 2020.

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