Brig Arvind Dhananjayan

India’s Submarine Development Plan (SDP)-2030 is quantitatively focused on development of Diesel-Electric Attack (DEA) submarines (SSKs) and Nuclear Attack Submarines (SSNs). It is complimented with the development and induction of SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines capable of firing ballistic missiles), which is imperative for nuclear deterrence on a regional and global scale to counterbalance the threat of China’s fast-paced naval modernization.

The Indian Navy currently operates two nuclear-powered attack submarines – INS Arihant and INS Arighat. INS Arihant was commissioned in 2016, and INS Arighat in 2022. The Indian Navy plans to build six SSNs of the Arihant class. The third and fourth submarines in the class, INS Aridhaman and INS Arighot, are under construction. The fifth and sixth submarines are still in the design stage.

The Indian Navy’s future plans for its SSN fleet include the construction of the Scorpene-class SSNs as explained in this article.

Acquisition of DEA Submarines/SSNs

Being largely oriented towards regional operations, the Indian Navy is predominantly focused on efforts towards safeguarding India’s territorial waters and deterring any inimical act of aggression by a potential adversary, either off the Eastern/Western Seaboards and the avenues of ingress into these waters or in the Northern Indian Ocean, which is traversed by favourable Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC). Concomitantly, China and Pakistan would have to set aside substantial naval resources to offset a surface and sub-surface threat from the Indian Navy to its naval patrols and mercantile shipping in these waters. The Indian Navy would also be tasked to effectively blockade Pakistan Navy’s attempts at any maritime misadventure off the peninsula. These tasks make it essential to have capabilities, among others, for maritime deterrence and sea denial.  While the former is a fallout of the combined operational capability of the Indian Navy, the latter would largely constitute the responsibility of the submarine arm.

Such an argument, among other financial and temporal considerations, would have influenced the decision to persevere with acquisition of modern SSKs and SSNs as part of the SDP.

Apart from the SSBNs mentioned, the acquisition of SSNs would significantly enhance the reach and stealth quotient of India’s sub-surface fleet, as SSNs have the capability to carry out fleeting attacks on an adversary’s static and sea-based assets, while staying submerged for protracted periods.

Growing Submarine Arm

Following the decision to introduce submarines into the Indian Navy six decades ago, imports and collaborative submarine-building ventures with foreign firms have effectively maintained a credible sub-surface fleet. In the aftermath of the Kargil War, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved a 30-year SDP to enable acquisition of 24 conventional submarines. Thus came into being a two-phase plan, with Project-75 and Project-75 (I) [75 (India)] constituting the initial phase, each envisaging development of six SSKs. The subsequent phase of 12 SSKs was envisaged to be undertaken indigenously. However, in keeping with the rapidly expanding maritime threat from China, the Indian Navy approached the CCS in early 2021, with a proposal to replace six of the balance 12 SSKs with SSNs, under the moniker of Project-75A/76.

Project-75, in collaboration with the French Naval Group (formerly DCNS), has now fructified, with five Kalvari Class (Scorpene) submarines having been commissioned and the sixth undergoing sea-trials.

Project 75A/76 

Project 75A/76 envisages the indigenous development of six SSNs over the present and next decade, with 6000-ton displacements and an overall projected cost of Rs. 96,000 crores. These vessels will be designed by the Indian Navy’s Directorate of Naval Design (DND) and manufactured at Vishakhapatnam.

Advanced Technology Vessel

In order to enhance the Indian Navy’s strategic reach, the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme was commissioned, envisaging development of four SSBNs (INS Arihant, commissioned in August 2016 and INS Arighat undergoing sea-trials, with two more larger vessels under development). These submarines would provide practically unlimited range, with intercontinental strike capability, as a component of India’s nuclear triad. These developments were spurred on by the void created due to termination of a brief three-year lease of INS Chakra-I, a Soviet SSN, which ended in 1991; and the subsequent expiry last year of a 10-year lease of INS-Chakra-II, an Akula-II Class SSN from Russia. A further addition to these ranks will come in the form of another Akula Class Russian submarine, INS Chakra-III, slated to be leased in 2025 for 10 years.

Project-75 (I)

Project-75 (I) could not be progressed concurrently as envisaged under the 30-year plan due to various reasons. Hence, the Naval Staff Qualitative Requirements for the project were modified to include procurement of SSKs with state-of-the-art Air-Independent-Propulsion (AIP) systems, enabling them to stay submerged for longer durations and substantially increasing their operational range and lethality. 

In October 2014, India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) decided that all six submarines would be constructed in India, and in June 2017, it was reported that the contract for construction would be awarded under the “Strategic Partnership” Model (SPM). This referred to participation of Indian firms along with foreign manufacturers under the ‘Make in India’ paradigm of Defence Acquisition Procedure-2020. The DAC subsequently approved an enhanced budget in January 2019.

Concurrently, an Empowered Project Committee (EPC) was constituted to steer the project till contract conclusion and Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for the project was accorded.  In January 2020, the EPC shortlisted Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and MDL as the two Indian firms that would collaborate with one of five shortlisted foreign manufacturers for the project. On 20 July 2021, the CCS allowed issuance of Request for Proposal (RFP) under the SPM to both Indian firms for a total amount of ?43,000 Crores, making this the first project under the SPM and India’s largest defence acquisition project!

The SPM envisages the setting up of manufacturing lines in India along with Transfer-of-Technology. Consequently, three of the five shortlisted foreign vendors exited, citing unfavourable contract clauses. Acceptance of the RFP by the balance two foreign firms saw MDL signing a pre-emptive agreement with German shipbuilder ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) in June 2023, while L&T had signed a Teaming Agreement with Spanish shipbuilding company Navantia on 11 April 2023 – both for the purpose of submitting a techno-commercial bid for the project. As per these pre-emptive agreements, Navantia would, if shortlisted, design and develop these submarines based on its Isaac Peral S-80 Submarine (due to be delivered to the Spanish Navy by end 2023), which boasts the most advanced AIP system in the world today. TKMS is, meanwhile, reported to be offering its Type 214/218 DEA submarines with AIP. Induction of Project-75 (I) submarines is expected to commence by the end of this decade.

Recent Developments

As part of the SDP, the DND, assisted by the DRDO, is reportedly working on the design of an indigenous DEA with AIP, soon envisioned to become the mainstay of India’s future SSK fleet. The DAC, in its meeting on 13 July, discussed the acquisition of three more Kalveri Class (Scorpene) submarines with AIP, as outlined in Project 75 (I), to be built at MDL and validated by France’s Naval Group, likely via a Government-to-Government contract. The Naval Group had earlier set up a 100% owned subsidiary, Naval Group India, with presence in New Delhi and Mumbai, to oversee the ‘Make in India’ commitment of Project-75, with an investment of over Rs 100 crores for establishment of three workshops for maintenance, spares and future refit of the Project-75 submarines. These workshops are also involved in validating the DRDO-developed AIP system for installation on existing submarines and those proposed for acquisition. An MoU between Naval Group and MDL was also reportedly signed, on 6 July 2023, for collaboration on the proposed acquisition of the additional submarines, which would include fitting of indigenous AIP and other onboard systems, resulting in a significantly higher indigenous content than before. Naval Group India would also oversee the fitting of indigenous AIP on existing Project-75 submarines as they commence their refit, beginning with INS Kalvari in 2024. The fitting of the indigenous AIP plug would require certain modifications to the hull of the submarines, including extension in length and subsequent integration, which would also be overseen by the Naval Group.

The revised Indo-French Joint Statement, issued on 14 July at the end of prime minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France to mark the 25th anniversary of the India-France Strategic Partnership, omits specific mention of these submarines but reiterates the joint readiness of both nations to explore development projects for expansion of India’s submarine fleet. This may be construed as a positive indicator for fruition of such acquisition by India.

Presently, design work for the SSNs is underway at the Submarine Design Group (SDG) under the DND, with the preliminary design phase having been completed in early 2020. The SDG, assisted by DRDO, is presently involved in the detailed design phase of the project. Construction of SSNs is expected to commence in 2023-24. with the first submarine expected to enter service in 2032.

Comments

Surveillance over India’s vast 7,500 km coastline, a 2 mn square Exclusive Economic Zone, and island territories off the eastern/ western coasts is a colossal mandate. Add to this the onerous responsibility of being a ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and India’s Navy and Coast Guard are landed with the unenviable charge of protecting India’s waters/seaboards from all forms of economic/military intrusion. Both China and Pakistan have viable navies capable of choking India’s maritime trade and denying operational sea-space for military or mercantile movement. Apropos, the Indian Navy on the cusp of metamorphosing into a genuine blue-water force, needs to be able to project maritime power, control sea-space for furtherance of own operations and deny the same to India’s potential adversaries. It is therefore imperative that India looks at self-reliance and indigenization to consolidate and enhance the effectiveness of its surface and sub-surface arsenal.

With 18 operational submarines at present, the Indian Navy’s Submarine Development Plan constitutes a much-needed fillip, in addition to the existing sub-surface fleet undergoing regular planned refit, refurbishment and modernization, to maintain its submarine arm as a potent and lethal sub-surface force.

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China is fielding two types of land-based ballistic missiles with a capability of hitting ships at sea-the DF-21D, a road-mobile anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) with a range of more than 1,500 kilometers (i.e., more than 910 nautical miles), and the DF-26, a road-mobile, multi-role intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a maximum range of about 4,000 kilometers (i.e., about 2,160 nautical miles) that DOD says “capable of conducting both conventional and nuclear precision strikes against ground targets as well as conventional strikes against naval targets.”

Until 2020, reported test flights of DF-21s and SDF-26s had not involved attempts to hit moving ships at sea. A November 14, 2020, press report, stated that an August 2020 test firing of DF-21 and DF-26 ASBMs into the South China resulted in the missiles successfully hitting a moving target ship south of the Paracel Islands. A December 3, 2020, press report stated that Admiral Philip Davidson, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, “confirmed, for the first time from the U.S. government side, that China’s People’s Liberation Army has successfully tested an anti-ship ballistic missile against a moving ship.”

In April 2022, it was reported that China may have developed a new type of ASBM, perhaps designed the YJ-21, that is small enough to fit into the vertical launch tube of a surface combatant, and that China had test fired such a weapon from a Type 055 cruiser (or large destroyer).

China reportedly is also developing hypersonic glide vehicles that, if incorporated into Chinese ASBMs, could make Chinese ASBMs more difficult to intercept.

Observers have expressed strong concerns about China’s ASBMs, because such missiles, in combination with broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting systems, would permit China to attack aircraft carriers, other U.S. Navy ships, or ships of allied or partner navies operating in the Western Pacific. The U.S. Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving ships at sea. For this reason, some observers have referred to ASBMs as a “game-changing” weapon. 

Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs)

China’s extensive inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) includes both Russian- and Chinese-made designs, including some advanced and highly capable ones, such as the Chinese-made YJ-18.

Although China’s ASCMs do not always receive as much press attention as China’s ASBMs (perhaps because ASBMs are a more-recent development), observers are nevertheless concerned about them. As discussed later in this report, the relatively long ranges of certain Chinese ASCMs have led to concerns among some observers that the U.S. Navy is not moving quickly enough to arm U.S. Navy surface ships with similarly ranged ASCMs.

Press reports in April 2019 and December 2021 state that China might be developing a YJ-18 launcher that can be packaged inside a standard commercial shipping container, for the potential purpose of surreptitiously deploying YJ-18s on merchant ships, a capability that, if implemented, could violate the law of naval warfare.

Submarines

Overview

China has been steadily modernizing its submarine force, and most of its submarines are now built to relatively modern Chinese and Russian designs. Qualitatively, China’s newest submarines might not be as capable as Russia’s newest submarines, but compared to China’s earlier submarines, which were built to antiquated designs, its newer submarines are much more capable.

Types and Numbers

Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSs). China also operates a small number of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) and a small number of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). The number of SSNs and SSBNs may grow in coming years, but the force will likely continue to consist mostly of SSs. DOD states that “the PLAN has placed a high priority on modernizing its submarine force, but its force structure continues to grow modestly as it works to mature its force, integrate new technologies, and expand its shipyards. The PLAN will likely maintain between 65 and 70 submarines through the 2020s, replacing older units with more capable units on a near one-to-one basis.” ONI states that “China’s submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units. Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.” ONI projects that China’s submarine force will grow from a total of 66 boats (4 SSBNs, 7 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2020 to 76 boats (8 SSBNs, 13 SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2030.

China’s newest series-built SS design is the Yuan-class (Type 039) SS, its newest SSN class is the Shang-class (Type 093) SSN, and its newest SSBN class is the Jin (Type 094) class SSBN. 

DOD states that “the PRC continues to increase its inventory of conventional submarines capable of firing advanced anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, the PLAN purchased 12 Russian-built Kilo class SS units, eight of which are capable of launching ASCMs. China’s shipyards have delivered 13 Song class SS (Type 039) and 17 Yuan class diesel-electric (SSPs) (Type 039A/B). The PRC is expected to produce a total of 25 or more Yuan class submarines by 2025.” DOD states further:

“Over the past 15 years, the PLAN has constructed twelve nuclear submarines-two Shang I class SSNs (Type 093), four Shang II class SSNs (Type 093A), and six Jin class SSBNs (Type 094). Equipped with the CSS-N-14 (JL-2) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the PLAN’s six operational Jin class SSBNs represent the PRC’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. Each Jin class SSBN can carry up to 12 JL-2 SLBMs. In 2019, Beijing displayed these missiles at the PRC’s 70th anniversary parade, revealing that at least a full complement of 12 JL-2s are complete and operational. The PRC’s next-generation Type 096 SSBN, which likely began construction in the early 2020s, will reportedly carry a new type of SLBM. The PLAN is expected to operate the Type 094 and Type 096 SSBNs concurrently and could have up to eight SSBNs by 2030. This would align with Chairman Xi Jinping’s 2018 directive for the SSBN force to achieve “stronger growth.”

By the mid-2020s, the PRC will likely build the Type 093B guided-missile nuclear attack submarine. This new Shang class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if equipped with land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs).

In February 2022, the first of a new class of SS, smaller than the Yuan design, was reported, but it is not clear whether this design is intended for China’s navy, for export to other countries, or both.

A May 16, 2022, press report states:

“A submarine seen in a satellite photo of a Chinese shipyard shows what could be a new class or subtype of a nuclear-powered attack sub with a new stealthy propulsion system and launch tubes for cruise missiles.”

The satellite photo of the shipyard at Huludao in Liaoning province, northern China, which was provided to Defense News by Planet Labs, was taken May 3 and shows a submarine on a drydock.

The unidentified boat’s presence at the yard was first noted in an April 29 satellite image by geospatial intelligence outfit AllSource Analysis. The organization said the submarine is possibly a new class undergoing construction by China.

Submarine Weapons

China’s submarines are armed with one or more of the following: ASCMs, wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes, and mines. Wake-homing torpedoes can be very difficult for surface ships to decoy. Each Jin-class SSBN is armed with 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). A May 2, 2021, press report stated that China’s latest Jin-class SSBN is armed with a new and longer-ranged SLBM called the JL-3.

Based on the US Congressional Reserach Service Report on China Naval Modernisation, Nov 2022

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This is the most significant offer of military equipment to India and could give the Indian Navy formidable sea denial capability in the Indian Ocean Region and provide it the sea legs to exercise a credible military presence in the Indo-Pacific Region. Nuclear submarine technology is regarded as the crown jewel of military capability.

Coming close on the heels of the Rafale fighter aircraft deal, this reported French offer to provide India the knowhow to make nuclear submarines has the potential to establish France as India’s pre-eminent Defence partner, a position traditionally enjoyed by Russia.

This is the first time that a nuclear-powered attack submarine technology would be offered to India. In the past, Russia and the erstwhile Soviet Union have on two occasions leased nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) to India. India has also signed a reported $3 Billion deal in 2019 for the lease of another SSN of the Akula class to the Indian Navy, making it the only navy other than those of the P5 countries to have operated a nuclear attack submarine.

The Barracuda class submarine is nuclear-powered but not nuclear armed. An SSN like the Barracuda is nonetheless the most formidable sea denial weapon. This submarine, while remaining submerged for extended durations, has a powerful land attack capability with the 1,000-km-range Scalp Naval cruise missile. The time between refueling is a reported 10 years.

Observers reckon that the door for the French offer of nuclear submarines to India opened up after the deal to provide American and British nuclear submarine knowhow to Australia upon the forging of the AUKUS grouping to deter China. France is also smarting from the Australian cancellation of a mega deal for 12 conventional submarines while accepting the American offer under the AUKUS umbrella.

But acquiring deep technology for SSNs has been a priority for India for many years. The indigenous programme for six SSNs is still in the design stage. The offer for the Barracuda is the consequence of regular deep consultations with France to deepen military cooperation. In October, the 5th session of the India-Franco Maritime Cooperation dialogue was held in Paris to carry forward discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron.

The Barracuda submarine is produced by the Naval Group, which is currently engaged in delivering the contract to build six Scorpene class diesel-electric submarines at Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL), Mumbai, for the Indian Navy.

If the Barracuda offer gains momentum, it is expected to have repercussions for the ongoing $5.7 Billion programme to build a new line of six diesel-electric submarines for the Indian Navy under Project 75 (I), which is already struggling with a de facto single vendor situation.

The Barracuda offer could potentially subsume Project 75 (I), informed observers reckon.

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