8 Feb 2024: Taiwan Straits

On 8 Feb 2024, China commenced a series of low-level air and naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These gradually increased in scope and scale. By early Mar 24, the PLAAF was sending almost 100 aircraft a day into the ADIZ (air defence identification zone) of Taiwan. The PLA Navy was regularly practising live fire drills in the waters around Taiwan. There were planted articles in the Chinese media saying these military exercises were to deter hotheads in Taiwan from making a Declaration of Independence. Solid intelligence had been received that this was likely. An announcement was made about a major amphibious exercise scheduled for mid or end-Apr that year. The aim of these exercises was to de-sensitise the Taiwanese defence forces as well as the Americans to high levels of military activity. In mid-Mar 24, a former presidential candidate made an impassioned speech condemning the president of Taiwan. He asked for the president’s impeachment and demanded that Taiwan declare Independence forthwith. He screamed, “China is trying to scare us with these endless war drills. This weak government is caving in. Enough is enough. ROC is a sovereign, democratic state. We declare our Independence from the hegemonistic Chinese regime now.”

Base 311 of the Strategic Support Forces Command dealing with Taiwan, went into overdrive. This statement was denounced in shrill terms on Chinese media and by the Chinese foreign minister himself. Chinese embassies in all major countries went into an overdrive with strident condemnation. The Chinese social media went berserk. The US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) was concerned enough to call his Chinese counterpart. “What’s happening? “he asked.

“Oh, don’t be alarmed General, these are just the usual noises we have to make to keep hotheads in Taiwan in line,” he soothed. Meanwhile, editorials in Global Times warned, “Let Taiwan not trifle with the mainland. China is a very powerful country.”

8 Apr 2024. Off the Coast of Taiwan.

In early Apr 2024, the met and tide conditions were just right. President Xi gave his final nod. The aircraft carrier battle group led by Liaoning steamed off for exercises in the East China Sea. The newest Fujian CV-18 aircraft carrier with its battle group sailed off for north of Taiwan. It had 70 J-15 aircrafts with an AEW on board. The Shandong CV-17 aircraft carrier battle group sailed for the South China Sea, also for exercises. Large flotillas led by Rinhai-class cruisers started moving out for exercises to off the coast of Fujian for an amphibious landing drill. As a precaution, the US Navy started staging forward one of its aircraft carrier battle groups.

0600 hours, 8 Apr 2024. An intense barrage of DF-11, DF-15 and DF-16 Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs 500-700 kms range), Navy anti-ship cruise missiles and YJ-12A supersonic cruise missiles, hit the presidential palace and Ministry of Defence, in Taipei. They also targeted three airfields, six radar stations and some major communication nodes. The president and senior officials were whisked away to safety in the nick of time. One General however, was wounded. At 0630 hours, a second wave of ballistic and cruise missiles hit the remaining air bases and radar stations and three major ammunition dumps and fuel storage tanks. A third wave of missiles struck airfields and radar stations again after an interval of 10 minutes.

Special Forces Operations. Meanwhile, six small teams of PLA Special Forces had landed on the coast of Taiwan via submarines and rubber dinghies well before dawn. They now raided the land-based cruise missile sites of the Taiwanese Navy that could target any invasion force. They succeeded in destroying four sites. The other teams were spotted by civilians and rounded up by the Taiwanese Army.

Air and Maritime Air Operations

0645 hrs, 8 Apr 2024. Some 200 fighter jets of the PLA Air Force crossed the median line and headed straight for Taiwan airfields from the Western direction. They were led by J-20 Stealth aircraft armed with BVR missiles. Just 10 minutes later, 60 aircraft took off from the aircraft carrier Fujian along with an AEW aircraft to help in the expected air-to-air combat with the Taiwan Air Force. Fierce air battles erupted as the dazed Taiwanese fighters rose up to challenge the invaders. The J-20s shot down eight F-16 and two Mirages. The F-16s downed one J-20 and three J-11s with their ARAAM missiles. The Chinese fighters from the Fujian did better, as all attention had been diverted towards the PLA Air Force fighters coming from the west. The Navy fighters bombed the target air bases. When they were returning, some brave Taiwanese F-16s and Mirages scrambled up to engage them. In the ensuing air battle five Mirages and two F–16 fighters were shot down for the loss of three J-15s.

0700 hours, 8 Apr 2024. President Xi Jinping went on TV and radio to broadcast a message. He said, “We had patiently and peacefully tried for re-unification of the motherland but to no avail. We recently received very disturbing intelligence that renegades on the island were trying to declare Independence. Such statements have now indeed been made in Taipei. We have still showed great restraint. Today, the Strategic Rocket Forces have made purely demonstrative strikes on Taiwan along with our PLA Air Force and Naval aviation. To seek reunification of the renegade island with the motherland, we are now announcing an air and maritime blockade of the island with immediate effect. We do not want any further escalation. This is purely an internal matter of China and no other country has any right to intervene. China is a peace loving country and would like to resolve it peacefully. We call upon authorities in Taiwan to commence negotiations at once for peaceful re-unification. That will resolve the crisis

0715 hours, 8 Apr 2024. Crisis Room, White House. Washington.

Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed the President and NSA. The president was shaken. “I thought we had defused it. We now have three wars on our hands. Do we want the third?” he asked.

“Mr President, we will have to react. Doing nothing will seriously erode our credibility,” said the grim-faced Chairman JCS.

“Frankly General, if this escalates, how ready are we now for a two-front war?” asked the NSA.

“Ready or not, we have no choice. We simply can’t do nothing. We will have to react,” replied the Chairman JCS obdurately.

“Yes, but can we do it in a way that this doesn’t escalate out of control?” asked the President. The Chairman JCS fell silent. He thought for a bit. Then he said, “Mr President, you could demand that the Chinese immediately call off the blockage and pay compensation for the damage caused in their so called ‘demonstrative’ strike. Meanwhile, we have already told our submarines to stage forward. By tomorrow they should be able to sink one or two major capital ships of the Chinese, as a ‘demonstration’ to start with. One of our aircraft carrier battle groups is already steaming toward the area. I have ordered two more carrier battle groups to set sail immediately,” said the Chairman JCS.

“Sink one or two Chinese warships? Won’t that be a declaration of war, General? asked the NSA.

“Yeah and China is a f—g nuclear armed country. This would be a direct clash, not a proxy war, as in Ukraine,” added the President.

“Sir, we can always say it was not us but one of their own mines they had sown for the blockade. That will put them in a decision dilemma as our carrier battle groups race for Taiwan.”

“What about our carrier battle group already half way? Won’t that get into a mess with their Fujian aircraft carrier or Chinese submarines before your neat subterfuge about mines hitting their ships can confuse them?” asked the President.

The Chairman JCS pursed his lips, “Mr President, that was a deterrence action. The situation has changed drastically now. I can order it to slow down and let other CBGs catch up if you wish to avoid immediate escalation and gain time. That will make the situation a bit more predictable and we won’t blunder into a shooting war right away.”

All three took a deep breath. The President knitted his brows, “OK, do that, I can’t think of anything smarter for the time being,” he said, but he was not liking this whole thing one bit.

1503 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Off North Eastern Coast of Taiwan.

The carrier battle group headed by CV-18 aircarft carrier Fujian had two Rinhai-class cruisers, four Luyang-class destroyers and 6 Jinhai-class frigates. It was the main battle group enforcing the blockade. At 1503 hours on 9 Apr 24, a torpedo struck a Rinhai-class cruiser. There was a massive explosion. The warship caught fire. The ship listed to one side and then sank slowly. Meanwhile, Taiwan scrambled its F-16s and Mirages also to attack this Chinese armada enforcing the blockade. The Taiwan jets were picked both by shore-based J-2000 AWACS and the AEW then in the air from the Fujian. J-15 fighters from the carrier and then a whole host of J-20, J-10 and J-11 aircrafts from the shore-based airfields, swarmed up. A major air battle erupted. The BVRs from the J-20s managed to shoot down 10 Mirages and four F-16s. Three J-15s and two J-10s were shot down in this melee. One Mirage fighter fired an Exocet anti-ship missile and badly damaged a Jiangkai-class frigate of the Chinese Navy. Three American carrier battle groups were now steaming full speed towards Taiwan.

1700 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Joint Operations Room. Beijing.

All members of the CMC and the entire top hierarchy of the PLA were in attendance. The Commander PLA Airforce briefed first. “In yesterday’s air battles we had shot down a total of 18 F-16s and 7 Mirages for a loss one J-20, three J- 10s and three J-11s (ratio 25:7). Today, the Taiwanese Air Force tried to attack our blockading force. In the combined air battle, we have shot down 10 Mirages and 8 F-16s. The enemy managed to shoot down three J-15s and two J-10 fighters (ratio 18 : 5). Overall, Taiwan has lost 43 jet fighters to our 12,” he said.

Commander PLA Navy briefed next. “Comrades, the most important development today is that an American nuclear submarine, fired a torpedo and sank our Rinhai-class cruiser. This is a major loss and is an act of war on part of the Americans. The Taiwanese Air Force mounted a major attack on our Fujian carrier battle group enforcing the blockade but was driven off with huge losses. One of our guided missile Jiangkai-class frigates was, however, damaged. We are now at war with USA and I recommend that we immediately fire DF-21D salvos on his three advancing carrier battle groups and stop them before they join battle.”

“Just one second,” Gen Zhang Youxia interjected. “I just got a call from the US Chairman JCS to say that they have no submarines in that area and this seems an accident caused by our own mines laid for the blockade.”

The Commander of PLA Navy went red in the face. “That’s a blatant lie. We must hit back immediately.”

“How do you want to do that?” asked President Xi Jinping.

Admiral Miao, member CMC spoke up. “As the Commander PLAN has rightly said, we must immediately engage the American aircraft carrier battle groups with non-stop salvos of DF-21D anti-ship missiles, till we draw blood. Meantime, we must not lose time and immediately attack the American bases in Okinawa and Guam. Otherwise, US and Japanese fighters and bombers from there, could hit our blockading forces and our cities on the east coast. Shanghai would be a prime target. Comrade President, this is not the time to hesitate. Hit back before we are hit hard. We must pre-empt the Americans.”

President Xi Jinping’s face was taut with tension. He swallowed hard and then took a few sips of water from his glass. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxia. “Comrade Zhang?” he queried.

“The Admiral is right. But that means full scale war that could go right up even to the nuclear level. So let’s pause and think now. The fact that the Americans have disowned their submarine attack on our Rinhai cruiser, tells me they are not keen to escalate. Maybe, they are also looking for a way out. We have amply shaken them up for now. Should we de-escalate and begin negotiations for a peaceful merger of Taiwan now? Or will that be too soon? Problem is, a day later may simply be too late.”

The question hung unanswered in the tense air of the Joint Operations Room in Beijing. All anxious faces turned towards the President of China.

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30 Jun 2023. White House. Washington.

Director CIA, William Burns asked for a most urgent meeting with President Joe Biden on 30 Jun 23. Director CIA pointed out that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had stalled badly and they had taken heavy losses.

“But you already told me that”, the president interjected. The Director CIA took a deep breath. “But what I’m about to tell you is far worse, Mr President. In fact, it is explosive.” The president looked at him in surprise.

“Mr President, we have received very hard intelligence that China has preponed its time line for attack on Taiwan. We understand that this will go in now in Apr 2024.”

“What? The president was genuinely alarmed. “How do we know this?”

The Director CIA pursed his lips. How much could he reveal now, he wondered to himself. “Mr President, firstly, these are the clear battle indications:-

• The Chinese are rapidly reducing their holdings of US treasury bonds and securities. They are trying to cut down dollar holdings of their forex reserves. They have drawn lessons from how we simply seized 300 billion dollars worth of Russian forex reserves.

• They are building up their gold reserves.

• They are building up stocks of fuel and food. In fact, even during Covid, they refused to touch their food reserve stocks.

• They are building up their blood banks for military hospitals.

• The PLA has been carrying out increasingly more realistic exercises. They have already practised enforcing a blockade and gaining air and maritime control over and around Taiwan. Next year, they are planning a full-fledged joint island landing campaign exercise which could easily be turned to actuals.”

“All of that still doesn’t give us an exact timeline” said the president impatiently.

“Exactly, Mr President. I took this time to come to you because we wanted to be very certain. But we now have solid human intelligence that the CMC has decided to attack in Apr 2024.”

“How solid?” asked the president.

“I would say rock solid, Mr President.” The President got up in agitation.

“I say we call an immediate meeting with the Chairman JCS and Secretary of State.”

“Mr President, can’t we delay that a bit. It would endanger those very highly-placed sources who have risked their necks to share this.”

“You have given me this explosive bit of intelligence and expect me to sit on it? Talking about a two-front war is one thing, fighting a two-front war is quite another. No, we can’t afford this. We need to head this off preferably. We need to de-escalate right away. Go on a charm offensive,” the president said in considerable agitation.

Consequent to this exchange, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, made two efforts to resume talks with Beijing. This was followed up by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yallen, who went to Beijing and virtually pleaded with the Chinese not to get rid of their US treasury bonds. The way she kow-towed in Beijing had to be seen. Finally, the 100-year old former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, the author of the US–China reproachment in the 1970s, himself made a visit to Beijing to placate the Chinese leadership.

18 Aug 2023. On board the presidential plane of XI Jinping. Over Nanjing.

President Xi Jinping made a sudden unannounced visit to HQ Eastern Command Nanjing. On the return flight, Director of China’s State Security Bureau (SSB) boarded the plane. He asked for an absolutely one-on-one meeting with the president on the plane. He had some top-class intelligence to share. The president was surprised. Director SSB apologised, “I’m sorry Comrade President. What I have to tell you is so sensitive that I had to arrange this special flight, just in case your office was bugged.”

“What is it,” asked President Xi, nervously.

“Comrade President, we have been betrayed. Our plans to invade Taiwan have been leaked to the Americans.”

“Leaked? By whom?” the president said as his face clouded with anger.

“Comrade president, I don’t know how to say this but your defence minister and foreign minister, no less, have done this treachery.”

“Li Shang Fu and Quiqiang?” The President was amazed. Both were his proteges and he had promoted them out of turn.

“Are you certain?” he asked in shock.

“Sir, before we came to you, we checked and double-checked. This is the sad truth,” the Director SSB said. “It was Li Shang Fu who told the foreign minister and also shared this decision with the Chief and Deputy Chief of the Rocket Forces.”

“This Li Shang Fu!” the President got up from his seat in rage. He immediately sent for Gen Zhang, Vice Chief of CMC. “Put plans for Taiwan on hold immediately, till we clean up this stinking system,” he was almost spluttering in rage. The system was duly cleaned up. The department for Discipline Inspection went into overdrive. First the foreign minister and then the defence minister simply disappeared from public view. The foreign minister, had a torrid affair with a tele- journalist when he was ambassador in USA. He had even fathered a child with her. The defence minister was involved in huge corruption in defence deals and had been compromised. Terse announcements followed weeks of speculation. Both had been sacked.

30 Oct 2023. Top Secret Meeting CMC. Shenyang.

On 7 Oct 2023, the Hamas struck Israel viciously and achieved complete surprise. Some 1,200 Israeli citizens were killed, 3,700 wounded and 250 taken hostage. Israel mobilised 3,00,000 reservists and reacted in rage. They bombed Gaza to rubble and then launched a brutal ground invasion spearheaded by Merkava tanks. In eight weeks, over 11,000 Palestinians were killed and some 23,000 wounded. US despatched two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and rushed in arms and munitions to Israel. On 30 Oct, Xi Jinping called for another top-secret CMC meeting. This time it was held in Shenyang in northern China. The Director of SSB was in attendance to ensure there was no leakage.

The President began with the Director SSB, “Comrade have we managed to clean up our system?

“Comrade Xi, we have purged the system thoroughly. With your support, the traitors at the highest levels have been dealt with,” he said grimly.

Xi just nodded curtly. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxian. “Comrade Zhang, in view of the Israel-Hamas conflict, what is your assessment of the global situation? Does it create a good window of opportunity for our Taiwan contingency?”

Gen Zhang said, “Comrade President, the situation is excellent. America is bogged down now in two wars, not just one. They have sent in two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and a large number of their army reserves are locked up in Europe. Both conflicts will drag on for a long time. 12% of Israel’s population were orthodox Jews who are extreme and don’t want a two state solution. This will likely go up to 32%. Both these conflicts will drag on. I say it is now or never. The correlation of forces will never be as favourable.”

Xi turned to Gen Hi Wei Dong, “Comrade?” he said briefly.

Gen Hi cleared his throat and said, “I agree entirely with Gen Zhang. The Americans know that we know, they know. In this situation they will least expect us to go ahead with the plan. We now need a good deception plan. Let us mount a good charm offensive to soothe American nerves and go right ahead in Apr 2024. We won’t get a more favourable global situation.”

“So what will it be? A full-scale Amphibious invasion, seizing some middle-sized island or a Blockade?”

Gen Hi said promptly, “The Americans are expecting a full scale invasion. So let us start with a joint fire strike on key targets in Taiwan, follow it up with the PLA Air Force and PLA Navy establishing air and maritime superiority. Concurrently, we announce a maritime blockade and if necessary, enforce it for months, till the renegades in Taiwan cave in. Let us learn from Ukraine. Defence today is far more powerful that attack. So, we put in blockade and, thereby, put the onus of attack on the Americans. Let them attack first. It will be best for our information and cognitive warfare theme – “We showed restraint, it is the Americans who were the aggressors.” This will be far less risky option than full scale invasion.”

Adimiral Miao Hua said excitedly, “I do not agree. The Americans will use submarines to break the blockade. If we do not pre-emptively strike their bases in Guam and Okinawa, they will use them to bomb our fleet and our cities on the east coast. Let us not make the same mistake the Russians did at start of Ukraine war. Either we go full on or not at all. Let’s not go to war with mental brakes full on.”

Gen Hi countered, “The amphibious landing phase will be very risky. They will focus on destroying maximum number of our ships as we come in. With US and Taiwanese air power, cruise and anti-ship missiles and drones they could do very great damage. Besides, do we have the full lift capability for carrying four if not all six of our amphibious brigades to make at least two major beach-heads on the western coast of Taiwan?

Adm Miao interjected, “We have been practising with civilian roll–on roll–off (Ro- Ro) with floating causeways. We have 64 of these that have trained for such assaults. Besides we have the largest merchant marine in the world. Even USA cannot lift as many troops as we can.”

“But these huge ships will be sitting ducks for US and Taiwanese anti–ship and cruise missiles. We could win or lose all. Are we prepared to lose all? And don’t forget, even if you do land successfully, you still have to fight through a very mountainous country with lots of built up areas,” Gen Hi countered.

The palpable tension was showing on President Xi’s face. He took a sip of water.

“So, if we blockade Taiwan, how will the Americans react,” he asked.

Gen Zhang Youxia replied, “The US will react first with his nuclear submarines to torpedo our blockading ships. Then, he will surge forward two or three carrier battle groups, maybe even five.”

“Then what do we do?” asked the President.

Gen Zhang replied, “Comrade President, our guided missile Renhai-class cruisers and Luyang-class destroyers have good anti-submarine warfare and anti-air capabilities. Besides, we have our nuclear powered hunter-killer submarines. In addition, our entire PLA Air Force and Marine Aviation will be up in the air. To take care of US carrier battle groups, we will fire salvos of Dong Feng-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles of 2000 km range. The Americans can’t accept casualties. Even if they lose one or two carriers, their ardour to intervene will evaporate quickly.”

There was a total silence in the room. You could cut the air with a knife. President Xi licked his lips to moisten them. His mouth had gone dry with the tension.

“OK, let’s go for the blockade,” he said finally. “But, what will be our pretext?”

“Oh, that is easy, Comrade President. Firstly, presidential elections in Taiwan are on 13 Jan next year. We can always take advantage of any pro-Independence sentiments expressed in the presidential campaign. If that does not work, we have an opposition candidate in our pay – a good agent provocateur. Next year, in March, he will make an impassioned speech denouncing President of Taiwan, ask for her impeachment and demand full Independence now,” said the Director SSB.

President Xi nodded grimly, saying, “Well, if a pro-Independence candidate wins in January elections, we will have very real reason to go in. Comrades, we plan for a blockade next year in Apr 2024. It will give us much better escalation control and lower any risk of catastrophic failure. If the first phase of the blockade goes well, maybe we could still go for full-scale amphibious assault. Let us see how that goes. We have a golden opportunity with the US already bogged down on two fronts. We can’t afford to let this pass. Meanwhile, let’s go on a charm offensive for full scale deception. I’ll go for the summit meeting with President Biden in California as planned on 15 Nov and try to be as nice as possible.” He then concluded the meet.

The post Chinese Leadership Discusses Strategy appeared first on IMR.

16 Feb 2022. Meeting of Central Military Commission (CMC) on Taiwan Question. Beijing

Russia was fully poised to launch its invasion of Ukraine in Feb 22. President Putin had visited China just before the invasion and signed the “friendship without limits” agreement. Xi Jinping had assured Putin of full, tacit support. The Russian invasion could occur anytime now. On 16 Feb 2022, President Xi Jinping had convened a top-secret meeting of the CMC. Once Russia invaded Ukraine, it would create a crisis that would completely tie down the USA and the West. Would that present an ideal opportunity for China to invade Taiwan? Historically, China had exploited the opportunity provided by the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, to teach India a lesson while the world was pre-occupied. Was there a similar opportunity coming up? He asked for frank views.

Gen Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of CMC, spoke first. He was one of the last few veterans of the 1979 China-Vietnam war of 1979 still serving, and Xi gave great respect to his views on all matters military. Zhang said, “Comrade President, the West anticipates an invasion of Taiwan earliest in the 2025-27 timeframe. As such, we certainly would achieve strategic surprise if we attack before that. The crucial point is how ready are we today for such a massive operation? My second point is – should we not wait to see how the Russian invasion of Ukraine proceeds? What are the American reactions? Will Russia overcome Ukraine in a 7-10 days’ timeframe, as is being anticipated? The crisis will then dissipate in a very short timeframe. What if Russia fails or gets bogged down? The crisis could then get extended. I say let us wait and watch. It will give us valuable lessons and pointers for our own operation.”

 Xi turned to Gen He Weidong, Second Vice Chairman of CMC. He had been former commander of China’s Eastern Theatre Command and was considered an expert on Taiwan. He said, “I tend to agree with Gen Zhang. It would be most useful and instructive to wait and watch and see how the Russian offensive fares. That will give us clear pointers to how the West will react and we can prepare accordingly.”

President Xi now turned to the CMC members.

Gen Li Shangfu, Defence Minister spoke up next, “Comrades, I don’t think our operations in Taiwan will be contingent upon success or failure of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. A major amphibious invasion of Taiwan will be a very serious decision. Once war in Ukraine distracts global attention, we will have to take a clear cut call and then go firm. A lot of preparations will have to commence now for a major amphibious invasion. The met conditions are ideal in April, May or August each year. You will have to decide, go or no-go and then stick to it firmly. Now is the time to act. We cannot debate forever.”

Gen Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff, was a bit irritated by this oblique criticism of Gen Zhang, from someone who had not heard a shot fired in anger. ”Gen Li Shangfu, have we decided it will be a full-fledged amphibious invasion? We all know what the options are:-

• Air and maritime blockade of Taiwan.

• Limited kinetic strikes with missiles and airpower.

• Capture of small or medium sized offshore island or

• Full scale amphibious invasion.

Have we decided which option we will adopt? A lot will depend upon that.” That led to animated discussion on the options. Finally, Chairman Xi said, “Returning to the main theme, it appears to me that it would help to adopt a wait and watch option for now. Let the Russian invasion be for us a trailer, which will uncover Western reactions and counter moves for us.”

20 Jul 2022. Second Meeting of CMC – Taiwan Question. Beijing

The Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced on 22 Feb 2022. It made good progress initially. The Russians reached the outskirts of Kiev and captured 90% of Luhansk and 60% of Donbas. They created a land link to Crimea and captured all the ports on the Sea of Azov and Black Sea (less Odessa). However, thereafter they got bogged down. The West imposed severe economic sanctions to cripple the Russian economy. On 20 July, President Xi convened the second meeting of CMC. “Comrades, the Russian offensive in Ukraine seems to have bogged down badly. What has gone wrong? Gen Zhang, you are most combat experienced general here. Can you analyse this for us?

Gen Zhang Youxia said, “Strangely, the Russians opted for invasion “lite” that is so far removed from the standard Russian way of war with emphasis on using overwhelming force and mass. Here, the Russians attacked with just 1,50,000 men, whereas, the Ukrainians were 2,50,000 men to start with and then fully mobilised to get some 5,50,000 men in arms. If most of your fighting was to be in built-up areas, this was a terribly skewed force ratio to start with. The Russians had hoped that technological superiority would help them win, but now they are bogged down badly. Using too little force will just prolong this war. Ukraine has seen the gaps and have now started counter-attacking. The Russians forces are now tired and spread out too thin. I’m really surprised why the Russians are not mobilising. This is war and you can’t afford to fight half–heartedly.”

Lt Gen He Weidong spoke next. “What this war has so clearly demonstrated is that with recent advances in technology – especially satellites, AWACS and drones –  surprise is impossible to achieve. What is worse is, defence today has a very clear advantage over offense. With drones, loitering munitions, precision strike weapons like HIMARS, attacks are becoming prohibitively costly. The attacker has to pay a heavy price, as we have seen.”

Lt Gen Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff pitched in. “The Russian attack was overland. They had no major obstacles to cross. If they took such losses, we will have to pause and think. Our offensive will have to cross 80 miles of sea. An amphibious landing is the most complex and difficult operation to execute. It calls for total command of the sea and maritime domain. With the current state of technology, we will have to bear heavy losses and even accept risk of catastrophic failure. I think we may have to postpone our offensive plans and focus on increasing our military power in the meantime.”

Gen Zhang Shengmin, the powerful head of the Commission for Discipline Inspection, spoke next. “However, Russia has been very successful at defeating Western economic sanctions. The major lesson learnt is that we must immediately start reducing our investments in US securities and treasury bonds. We have to reduce our holding of dollars in US banks. Otherwise, like they simply seized 300 billion dollars worth of Russian forex reserves, they could do the same to us. We must strive for de-dollarization of global trade and invest more in gold reserves.”

Admiral Miao Hua, member of the CMC said, “Comrades, Americans have already sensed our hesitation and doubt. They are acting in such a triumphalist manner and trying to rub our noses in the dirt. They are being most reckless. They seem to think that they can take on Russia and China together and defeat us both. I do not think this hubris is justified.”

Chairman Xi Jinping was cautious and risk averse as usual. “Comrades, we have to keep in mind ground realities. Seeing the way Russia has become bogged down in Ukraine, this time does not at all seem opportune to proceed with our Taiwan contingency plans. We will have to pend them for now.”

26 Jul 2022. Emergency Meeting of CMC. Beijing

The American truculence towards China seemed to be rising by the day. They openly threatened China not to supply any weapons to Russia or help it evade the economic sanctions. Now, to further rub Chinese noses in the sand, the Americans announced that Congress Speaker Nancy Pilosi would be visiting Taiwan on 2-3 Aug 22 as part of Congress Member Delegation (CODEL). On 26 July, Xi Jinping summoned an emergency meeting of the CMC. He was really upset.

“Comrades, this is too much. The Americans are sending their Speaker, this Pilosi woman, to Taiwan, deliberately to spite us. We will have to work out how we react to this grave provocation.”

Admiral Miao Hua, spoke up instantly, “Comrade president, you will recall this is precisely what I had warned against in the last CMC meeting. The Americans have sensed our hesitation and caution and are trying now to push us around. This will become intolerable, if we let this pass.”

“So, what do we do?” asked the President.

Gen Hi Weidong, former Eastern Theatre Commander and Taiwan expert of the CMC, said, “Comrade president, we have worked out an effective response short of war. We will hold an exercise of imposing a simulated blockade of Taiwan. Concurrently, we will hold major air and naval exercises to practise seizing maritime and air control in the Strait. We will fire missiles over Taiwan. That will send a clear message.”

Gen Zhang Youxia added, “Simultaneously, let us cut off all military-to-military contacts with America, so no hot line works, and they worry.”

President Xi grunted, “Sounds good. Let’s do it.”

China fired a number of missiles with impact points all around the seas of Taiwan. Dangerously, four of them flew over Taiwan. The PLA Air force launched 250 sorties that crossed into Taiwan’s AIDZ (air defence identification zone) and 13 Chinese naval units sailed around Taiwan to its north, south east and south west, simulating a blockade. For a time, the Americans were worried. They even escorted Nancy Pilosi’s plane with F-16 fighters as it flew into Taiwan. But when nothing more happened, the Americans saw through the Chinese bluff. The response was more hysteria, exercises and nothing more.

The Ukrainians had started launching counter-attacks to take advantage of serious gaps in Russian defence lines. American satellites were picking up these gaps and vectoring the Ukrainian counter-attacks on the harried and over-stretched Russian contingent of forces in Ukraine. The Americans sent yet another delegation to Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping scowled darkly, “Threats don’t work now. We will have to do something real.”

15 Apr 2023. Top Secret CMC Meeting. Beijing

In Sep 2023, in a belated concession to common sense, the Russians finally mobilised 3,00,000 reservists. Gen Suvorvikin, used civilian construction companies to build a formidable, three-tiered Maginot line for the defence of all territories captured in Ukraine. Defence had proved to be the stronger form of war with current technology. Now, the Russians wanted the over-confident Ukrainians to get a taste of their own medicine. Accordingly, in a repeat of their strategy during the Kursk battle in World War II, the Russians deliberately decided to let the Ukrainians attack first, absorb and defeat these attacks and then go on the counter-offensive. The military situation in Ukraine was clearly shifting In Russia’s favour. That was the time that president Tsai Wen of Taiwan decided to visit the US (7 Apr 2023). President Xi Jinping was infuriated. There was no end to American provocations. Meanwhile, Russia was hitting Ukrainian cities with massive barrages of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Iranian Shahed drones. The damage was substantive and highly visible on global TV screens.

On 30 Apr 23, President Xi Jinping summoned the fourth meeting of CMC on the Taiwan issue. This was a top secret meeting held under very tight security blanket in Beijing.

The president said, “Comrades I am now getting sick and tired of American insults and provocations. Our shows of force are not working at all. We will have to now use actual force like our Russian friends. And, by the way, the Russian military position is far stronger than was painted by American propaganda. They were largely winning this war on TV screens. Now the truth is emerging. The war situation is now finally turning in favour of the Russians. Let us emulate the Russian example and finally take the plunge.”

Gen Zhang Youxia cleared his throat, “Comrade President, I could not agree more with you. We have taken enough bullying from the Americans. America’s military industrial capacity has grown weak in their unipolar era. They have transferred huge stocks of ammunition to Ukraine and locked up their land forces reserves in Europe. This could seriously weaken their capability to react to any crisis over Taiwan. I think it is time to take another look at our decision to defer the Taiwan contingency operations. There are very strong reasons to prepone the time-line for Taiwan. Maybe if we strike in 2024 itself we will achieve full strategic surprise and take advantage of America’s preoccupation with Ukraine.”

Gen He Weidong fully endorsed the views of Gen Zhang. He said, “Comrades our military thinking and planning has been very realistic. We have invested so much in our Strategic Rocket Force and our drones. Both have proved their value in combat in Ukraine. It is time to press home this resource. Today, the PLA Navy is the biggest navy in the world and the PLA Air Force has over 1300 fourth generation aircraft. I say let us strike out boldly and resolutely.”

The Defence Minister Gen Li Shangfu was most enthusiastic. He said, “Comrades let us act in a decisive manner and do it finally. We need to set a firm time line cast in stone and then not dither. That will enable the PLA to prepare in a decisive manner. We must take the firm decision today and stick to it with resolve.”

“So, when do you propose we go in? 2024 or the next year?” asked the president. He was not liking the undertone of criticism in the Defence Minster’s statement.

“Comrade president, I think we should go firm on Apr 2024,” Gen Li Shangfu said emphatically.

There was total silence in the room. One could feel the tension. Finally, Xi Jinping spoke up, “Comrades let us do it. We go firm on Apr 2024. Please plan accordingly.”

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