8 Feb 2024: Taiwan Straits

On 8 Feb 2024, China commenced a series of low-level air and naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These gradually increased in scope and scale. By early Mar 24, the PLAAF was sending almost 100 aircraft a day into the ADIZ (air defence identification zone) of Taiwan. The PLA Navy was regularly practising live fire drills in the waters around Taiwan. There were planted articles in the Chinese media saying these military exercises were to deter hotheads in Taiwan from making a Declaration of Independence. Solid intelligence had been received that this was likely. An announcement was made about a major amphibious exercise scheduled for mid or end-Apr that year. The aim of these exercises was to de-sensitise the Taiwanese defence forces as well as the Americans to high levels of military activity. In mid-Mar 24, a former presidential candidate made an impassioned speech condemning the president of Taiwan. He asked for the president’s impeachment and demanded that Taiwan declare Independence forthwith. He screamed, “China is trying to scare us with these endless war drills. This weak government is caving in. Enough is enough. ROC is a sovereign, democratic state. We declare our Independence from the hegemonistic Chinese regime now.”

Base 311 of the Strategic Support Forces Command dealing with Taiwan, went into overdrive. This statement was denounced in shrill terms on Chinese media and by the Chinese foreign minister himself. Chinese embassies in all major countries went into an overdrive with strident condemnation. The Chinese social media went berserk. The US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) was concerned enough to call his Chinese counterpart. “What’s happening? “he asked.

“Oh, don’t be alarmed General, these are just the usual noises we have to make to keep hotheads in Taiwan in line,” he soothed. Meanwhile, editorials in Global Times warned, “Let Taiwan not trifle with the mainland. China is a very powerful country.”

8 Apr 2024. Off the Coast of Taiwan.

In early Apr 2024, the met and tide conditions were just right. President Xi gave his final nod. The aircraft carrier battle group led by Liaoning steamed off for exercises in the East China Sea. The newest Fujian CV-18 aircraft carrier with its battle group sailed off for north of Taiwan. It had 70 J-15 aircrafts with an AEW on board. The Shandong CV-17 aircraft carrier battle group sailed for the South China Sea, also for exercises. Large flotillas led by Rinhai-class cruisers started moving out for exercises to off the coast of Fujian for an amphibious landing drill. As a precaution, the US Navy started staging forward one of its aircraft carrier battle groups.

0600 hours, 8 Apr 2024. An intense barrage of DF-11, DF-15 and DF-16 Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs 500-700 kms range), Navy anti-ship cruise missiles and YJ-12A supersonic cruise missiles, hit the presidential palace and Ministry of Defence, in Taipei. They also targeted three airfields, six radar stations and some major communication nodes. The president and senior officials were whisked away to safety in the nick of time. One General however, was wounded. At 0630 hours, a second wave of ballistic and cruise missiles hit the remaining air bases and radar stations and three major ammunition dumps and fuel storage tanks. A third wave of missiles struck airfields and radar stations again after an interval of 10 minutes.

Special Forces Operations. Meanwhile, six small teams of PLA Special Forces had landed on the coast of Taiwan via submarines and rubber dinghies well before dawn. They now raided the land-based cruise missile sites of the Taiwanese Navy that could target any invasion force. They succeeded in destroying four sites. The other teams were spotted by civilians and rounded up by the Taiwanese Army.

Air and Maritime Air Operations

0645 hrs, 8 Apr 2024. Some 200 fighter jets of the PLA Air Force crossed the median line and headed straight for Taiwan airfields from the Western direction. They were led by J-20 Stealth aircraft armed with BVR missiles. Just 10 minutes later, 60 aircraft took off from the aircraft carrier Fujian along with an AEW aircraft to help in the expected air-to-air combat with the Taiwan Air Force. Fierce air battles erupted as the dazed Taiwanese fighters rose up to challenge the invaders. The J-20s shot down eight F-16 and two Mirages. The F-16s downed one J-20 and three J-11s with their ARAAM missiles. The Chinese fighters from the Fujian did better, as all attention had been diverted towards the PLA Air Force fighters coming from the west. The Navy fighters bombed the target air bases. When they were returning, some brave Taiwanese F-16s and Mirages scrambled up to engage them. In the ensuing air battle five Mirages and two F–16 fighters were shot down for the loss of three J-15s.

0700 hours, 8 Apr 2024. President Xi Jinping went on TV and radio to broadcast a message. He said, “We had patiently and peacefully tried for re-unification of the motherland but to no avail. We recently received very disturbing intelligence that renegades on the island were trying to declare Independence. Such statements have now indeed been made in Taipei. We have still showed great restraint. Today, the Strategic Rocket Forces have made purely demonstrative strikes on Taiwan along with our PLA Air Force and Naval aviation. To seek reunification of the renegade island with the motherland, we are now announcing an air and maritime blockade of the island with immediate effect. We do not want any further escalation. This is purely an internal matter of China and no other country has any right to intervene. China is a peace loving country and would like to resolve it peacefully. We call upon authorities in Taiwan to commence negotiations at once for peaceful re-unification. That will resolve the crisis

0715 hours, 8 Apr 2024. Crisis Room, White House. Washington.

Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed the President and NSA. The president was shaken. “I thought we had defused it. We now have three wars on our hands. Do we want the third?” he asked.

“Mr President, we will have to react. Doing nothing will seriously erode our credibility,” said the grim-faced Chairman JCS.

“Frankly General, if this escalates, how ready are we now for a two-front war?” asked the NSA.

“Ready or not, we have no choice. We simply can’t do nothing. We will have to react,” replied the Chairman JCS obdurately.

“Yes, but can we do it in a way that this doesn’t escalate out of control?” asked the President. The Chairman JCS fell silent. He thought for a bit. Then he said, “Mr President, you could demand that the Chinese immediately call off the blockage and pay compensation for the damage caused in their so called ‘demonstrative’ strike. Meanwhile, we have already told our submarines to stage forward. By tomorrow they should be able to sink one or two major capital ships of the Chinese, as a ‘demonstration’ to start with. One of our aircraft carrier battle groups is already steaming toward the area. I have ordered two more carrier battle groups to set sail immediately,” said the Chairman JCS.

“Sink one or two Chinese warships? Won’t that be a declaration of war, General? asked the NSA.

“Yeah and China is a f—g nuclear armed country. This would be a direct clash, not a proxy war, as in Ukraine,” added the President.

“Sir, we can always say it was not us but one of their own mines they had sown for the blockade. That will put them in a decision dilemma as our carrier battle groups race for Taiwan.”

“What about our carrier battle group already half way? Won’t that get into a mess with their Fujian aircraft carrier or Chinese submarines before your neat subterfuge about mines hitting their ships can confuse them?” asked the President.

The Chairman JCS pursed his lips, “Mr President, that was a deterrence action. The situation has changed drastically now. I can order it to slow down and let other CBGs catch up if you wish to avoid immediate escalation and gain time. That will make the situation a bit more predictable and we won’t blunder into a shooting war right away.”

All three took a deep breath. The President knitted his brows, “OK, do that, I can’t think of anything smarter for the time being,” he said, but he was not liking this whole thing one bit.

1503 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Off North Eastern Coast of Taiwan.

The carrier battle group headed by CV-18 aircarft carrier Fujian had two Rinhai-class cruisers, four Luyang-class destroyers and 6 Jinhai-class frigates. It was the main battle group enforcing the blockade. At 1503 hours on 9 Apr 24, a torpedo struck a Rinhai-class cruiser. There was a massive explosion. The warship caught fire. The ship listed to one side and then sank slowly. Meanwhile, Taiwan scrambled its F-16s and Mirages also to attack this Chinese armada enforcing the blockade. The Taiwan jets were picked both by shore-based J-2000 AWACS and the AEW then in the air from the Fujian. J-15 fighters from the carrier and then a whole host of J-20, J-10 and J-11 aircrafts from the shore-based airfields, swarmed up. A major air battle erupted. The BVRs from the J-20s managed to shoot down 10 Mirages and four F-16s. Three J-15s and two J-10s were shot down in this melee. One Mirage fighter fired an Exocet anti-ship missile and badly damaged a Jiangkai-class frigate of the Chinese Navy. Three American carrier battle groups were now steaming full speed towards Taiwan.

1700 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Joint Operations Room. Beijing.

All members of the CMC and the entire top hierarchy of the PLA were in attendance. The Commander PLA Airforce briefed first. “In yesterday’s air battles we had shot down a total of 18 F-16s and 7 Mirages for a loss one J-20, three J- 10s and three J-11s (ratio 25:7). Today, the Taiwanese Air Force tried to attack our blockading force. In the combined air battle, we have shot down 10 Mirages and 8 F-16s. The enemy managed to shoot down three J-15s and two J-10 fighters (ratio 18 : 5). Overall, Taiwan has lost 43 jet fighters to our 12,” he said.

Commander PLA Navy briefed next. “Comrades, the most important development today is that an American nuclear submarine, fired a torpedo and sank our Rinhai-class cruiser. This is a major loss and is an act of war on part of the Americans. The Taiwanese Air Force mounted a major attack on our Fujian carrier battle group enforcing the blockade but was driven off with huge losses. One of our guided missile Jiangkai-class frigates was, however, damaged. We are now at war with USA and I recommend that we immediately fire DF-21D salvos on his three advancing carrier battle groups and stop them before they join battle.”

“Just one second,” Gen Zhang Youxia interjected. “I just got a call from the US Chairman JCS to say that they have no submarines in that area and this seems an accident caused by our own mines laid for the blockade.”

The Commander of PLA Navy went red in the face. “That’s a blatant lie. We must hit back immediately.”

“How do you want to do that?” asked President Xi Jinping.

Admiral Miao, member CMC spoke up. “As the Commander PLAN has rightly said, we must immediately engage the American aircraft carrier battle groups with non-stop salvos of DF-21D anti-ship missiles, till we draw blood. Meantime, we must not lose time and immediately attack the American bases in Okinawa and Guam. Otherwise, US and Japanese fighters and bombers from there, could hit our blockading forces and our cities on the east coast. Shanghai would be a prime target. Comrade President, this is not the time to hesitate. Hit back before we are hit hard. We must pre-empt the Americans.”

President Xi Jinping’s face was taut with tension. He swallowed hard and then took a few sips of water from his glass. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxia. “Comrade Zhang?” he queried.

“The Admiral is right. But that means full scale war that could go right up even to the nuclear level. So let’s pause and think now. The fact that the Americans have disowned their submarine attack on our Rinhai cruiser, tells me they are not keen to escalate. Maybe, they are also looking for a way out. We have amply shaken them up for now. Should we de-escalate and begin negotiations for a peaceful merger of Taiwan now? Or will that be too soon? Problem is, a day later may simply be too late.”

The question hung unanswered in the tense air of the Joint Operations Room in Beijing. All anxious faces turned towards the President of China.

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 For the world, the prime lesson of this war is the paradigm shift between the power of Defence over Offense. With satellite surveillance and drones, surprise is virtually impossible to achieve. Modern technology has made attacks prohibitively costly. It was this that had deterred China so far.

Russia was attacking across land. China would have to mount a prohibitively costly amphibious assault over 80 miles of sea. Politically and militarily, it would be a very high-risk venture with inordinately high chances of failure and fiasco. China’s habitually cautious political and military leadership baulked at taking such risks. There was an air of triumphalism in America then. They completely believed their own propaganda that they had beaten Russia hollow. The Americans went out of their way to rub China’s nose in the dirt. China was taunted with a series of high-profile political visits to Taiwan. There was a reckless air of hubris in Washington that it could take on Russia and China simultaneously and beat the hell out of both of them. The reality check came in June-July 2023, when the long advertised Ukrainian counter-offensive stalled badly on solid Russian defence lines. This seems to have engendered a sobering rethink in Washington and a number of senior officials (including the legendary Henry Kissinger) were sent to placate a humiliated and infuriated China. With its shrill and strident rhetoric of the last few decades, no Chinese leadership can afford to be seen as backing down on Taiwan. The more they wait, the stronger will Taiwan’s defences become. It’s a Hobson’s choice.

Meanwhile, the Chinese military also seems to have seen through the shrill Western propaganda on Ukraine. Xi Jiniping has been exhorting his commanders to speed up their preparations and avoid any more humiliations. Intelligence of this hardened Chinese stance and, perhaps, a speeded up timeline for Taiwan, has possibly induced Washington to hold out an olive branch. It is one thing to talk glibly of a two-front war. It is quite another to fight one. It is also a monumental strategic folly to do so. Kissinger had specifically advised against such a high-risk venture and went himself to patch up with Beijing.

China has learnt its lessons from Ukraine. It should now be investing heavily on enhancing its arsenal of Tactical Ballistic Missiles, Cruise and Hypersonic missile capabilities. It has already started to push up its nuclear arsenal from 350 to over a 1000 war heads. It is rapidly augmenting its naval capabilities for amphibious assault. With such a determined national effort, this build up process should not take very long. The Chinese Strategic Support Forces will play a major role in waging cyber and electronic warfare and will launch a major cognitive war offensive to shape the global narrative and maintain information dominance.

A China-Taiwan war, however, will not be a limited and localised conflict. China will have to exert really hard to deter, delay and defeat third party intervention. At stake will also be the vital semi-conductors or micro-chip industry of the world. Taiwan is one of the largest chip-making countries on the planet. The world cannot afford to let that capacity fall into Chinese hands. If she is seen as winning, the US itself may have to undertake a scorched earth policy by bombing Taiwan’s chip-making plants (even as Great Britain had bombed the French fleet after France surrendered in World War II). That worry is also behind the attempt at friend-shoring chip making, by encouraging India and Vietnam, etc, to start the manufacture of micro-chips in a big way and create new supply chains.

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