The 2010s saw Turkey undertake concerted efforts to expand its geopolitical influence, both within its immediate neighbourhood of the MENA region and beyond. Yet even as Ankara’s current economic fortunes indicate otherwise, her political and military actions continue to gain visibility, signalling Turkish President Erdogan’s continued intent to grow her security presence far beyond the Middle East. Perhaps, nowhere is this more evident than within the Indian subcontinent. India, for most part, has not shared any geopolitical grievances of note against Turkey over the course our history as a free nation. Yet Turkey’s ambitions, and determination to be recognised as a global power, has led President Erdogan to present Turkish security interests within the subcontinent and beyond as antagonistic to India’s. Identifying, strategising on, and countering this hostile presence is, therefore, essential for India’s national security interests.

Challenge 1: The Afghan Theatre

Over the past year, Turkey has sought to expand its influence within Afghanistan in the context of the US withdrawal. Ankara’s specific interest in Afghanistan thus far seems to be in securing Kabul airport. In July 2021, just a month before the fall of Kabul, Erdogan offered to send Turkish private military and security personnel to secure Kabul airport – only backtracking following a rebuke from the Taliban warning of “dire consequences”. Yet Turkey has retained its interest in Afghanistan, securing a deal in December 2021 with the Taliban regime to run airports in Kabul and across the rest of Afghanistan in partnership with Qatari firms.

The national security implications of this deal for India remain substantial. The December 2021 deal not only reiterates continued intention of operating as a key stakeholder in the Afghan geopolitical theatre, but also demonstrates Ankara’s links with key Taliban factions. Moreover, Turkey’s economic control over Afghan airports may translate into political control, cementing its control over all ports of entry in and out of that landlocked country. India must bear this last factor in mind when framing future HUMINT and diplomatic operations within Taliban-occupied Afghanistan, and exfiltrating ground assets.

At a diplomatic level, a Turkish presence in Afghanistan also blocks India’s outreach to Central Asia. In recent years, Turkey has sought to expand its influence into Central Asia as demonstrated by its leadership of the Turkic Council. A solidified Turkish presence in Afghanistan may be used by Ankara as leverage over the bloc’s other member-states to hamper India’s security and geostrategic interests in Afghanistan. These concerns remain particularly valid at a time when India has actively stepped up its engagement with Central Asia in coordination with its Afghan strategy, as illustrated by the December 2021 meeting in New Delhi between PM Modi, NSA Doval and the foreign ministers of five Central Asian states- four of whom represented member-states of the Turkic Council. Indeed, the meeting may signal South Block’s acknowledgment of this possibility, as well as its national security implications for India. India’s approach to Central Asia in general and Taliban-occupied Afghanistan cannot be divorced from the looming regional threat posed by Turkish belligerence. South Block will need to continue monitoring the extent of Turkish influence over the foreign policies of the Central Asian states, and devise policy accordingly- as it already seems to be doing.

Challenge 2: The China Connection

As highlighted previously, Turkey’s belligerence within its neighbourhood and beyond has taken a toll on its economy, leaving it vulnerable to foreign manipulation and leverage. The past decade has seen the Turkish economy struggle under the weight of its adventurism, leaving it susceptible to Chinese control. Tensions do remain – such as the Uyghur question, and the economic competition engendered with China due to Erdogan’s push for economic influence in Central Asia. However, China has exploited the Turkish economy’s weaknesses by rapidly expanding its BRI projects within the country over the past decade. In recent years, China’s economic influence has become increasingly visible in Turkey, from Chinese companies owning majority stakes in key Turkish infrastructure and business projects and to the Chinese construction of Turkey’s 5G infrastructure.

The primary threat posed to India by this encroaching Chinese control over Turkey’s sluggish economy is the potential exacerbation of Ankara’s belligerence against India under Chinese influence. Turkey’s growing hostility to the Indian stance on the issue of Kashmir increasingly coincides with China’s – and with Beijing’s vast economic leverage over China, the Turkey-China axis could pose serious security challenges to India within Kashmir in the future. Additionally, this Chinese influence could be used to heighten Turkish opposition to Indian interests within global for a like the UN, including on critical issues such as India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group and influence within UN committees.

Challenge 3: Support for political extremism within India

Another security challenge posed to India by Turkey is its support of banned domestic terrorist outfits within India. Turkey’s funding of key domestic. extremist outfits through front organisations such as IHH –- most notably its links to the PFI – constitute a significant breach of India’s sovereignty, and demonstrate Turkey’s geopolitical adventurism within the subcontinent. This is a threat compounded by Turkey’s vast militant and intelligence networks in neighbouring states such as Nepal, aimed directly at fomenting terror and political instability within India.

Solution 1: Targeting the money trail via organised crime

Countering Ankara’s malign activities against India necessitates a recognition of the close links between transnational Turkish organised crime syndicates and the MIT- Turkey’s foreign intelligence services. Turkish organised crime, operating primarily out of Western European capitals, essentially serves as an extension of Turkish foreign policy interests- as the revelations by former Turkish mafia boss Sedat Peker have highlighted. Indeed, Peker’s revelations surrounding the MIT’s use of Turkish organised crime syndicates to funnel arms to al-Nusra in Syria, as well as the close links between AKP figures (including officials in the Foreign Ministry) and noted Turkish mafia figures abroad underscore the crime-intelligence nexus characterising Turkish security policy under Erdogan. Moreover, it demonstrates the centrality of these diasporic organised crime networks as a source of funding for Turkey’s offensive activities overseas – including in India, through support to extremist organisations and the establishment of centres of influence in Afghanistan, where India continues maintaining security interests.

As such, combatting Turkey’s malign activities against India requires a focus on the money trail, and specifically the role of Turkish diasporic criminal networks in this respect. Hence, identifying and targeting the activities of Turkish organised crime – both within India and elsewhere needs to take centre stage in New Delhi’s defensive strategy. This will require, among other factors, the provision of new mandates to Indian intelligence networks in Western Europe and the MENA region, and an expanded understanding of the threat posed by Turkish organised crime to Indian security interests.

Solution 2: Surreptitious Economic Control

Turkey’s economic woes have left it vulnerable to exploitation by foreign powers- most visibly that of China. However, opportunity still exists for India to use its comparative economic heft to acquire leverage over Ankara and hopefully help put an end to its nefarious activities. Turkey’s recent introduction of a ‘citizenship by investment’ regulation provides India with an opportunity to deepen its economic influence within Turkey, and hopefully utilise this influence to press the Turkish state to cease its anti-India activities.

Solution 3: The creation of a Middle Eastern Axis

Tackling Turkey’s anti-India activities will also require the MEA to step up India’s engagement with key Middle Eastern powers at a strategic level, and through military and intelligence cooperation.

Turkey’s belligerent attitude within the MENA region has isolated it among most of its fellow regional powers. Turkey is currently locked in a series of proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, ranging from Libya to Syria and increasingly, a battle for political influence in Lebanon. Ankara similarly shares an acrimonious relationship with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s Egypt, under whose leadership Egypt has seen a crackdown on the Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood within the country. Israel continues to remain vexed by Turkey’s support for Palestinian militant groups, despite its occasional cooperation with Ankara in non-regional conflicts such as the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. And Turkey continues to share a complex yet tense relationship with Iran, finding itself often operating on the opposite side of the fence through their proxies in the Syrian Civil War despite their common concerns surrounding Kurdish nationalism.

Unlike Turkey, however, India has maintained consistently positive relations with all these competing Middle Eastern powers. The creation of a Middle Eastern alliance, formal or otherwise, aimed at keeping a check on Turkish influence would therefore serve India’s interests in defending against Turkish belligerence. Indeed, India may use her image as a neutral arbitrator to increasingly position herself as a mediator within various Middle Eastern conflicts, simultaneously providing New Delhi with the opportunity to string together an alliance between like-minded nations to counter Turkish aggression. Such an alliance also leads into the first solution of tracking the money trail, as expanded intelligence cooperation between India and Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and Egypt provide policymakers in South Block with a better understanding of Turkish financial operations and their potential links to Ankara’s belligerence within the Indian subcontinent. It would also help maintain a lid on the establishment of Turkish centres of power across the region, which may hold future potential for anti-India activities on Ankara’s part.

In summary, India does not seek a poor relationship with Turkey. Yet as MI6 Chief Richard Moore recently noted during his speech at the IISS, policymakers are supposed to “deal with the world as it is, not the way they would like it to be”. Turkey’s unprovoked aggression towards India is unfortunate, yet undoubtedly merits a response. Synergising our military, intelligence and economic capabilities in this respect is, therefore, fundamental to India’s long-term security interests, allowing us to rid the subcontinent of hostile influence and negotiate with Turkey on equal terms.

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Over the last several decades, many Wahhabi organisations developed, flourished and survived in India. Most escaped the reach of our agencies and the strategic community, either because of lack of sufficient knowledge or lack of adequate political will to tackle them. The most prominent feature of such organisations is the legal umbrella under which they operate. They often work under the garb of rights ad charity groups, NGOs and religious institutions. However, internally they work to radicalise the demography selected by them, which is across faiths. This leads to polari sation, fuels hatred and causes germination of fundamentalist terrorist ideologies. A sophisticated network of organisations managed to thrive despite the heavy machinery of the Indian state.

Case of So-called Charities

The role of external support to such organisations is the most potent driving factor in the spread of radical ideologies in India. For instance, the import of Saudi endorsed hard-line Wahhabi ideology in the 1980s sprouted the seed of extremism in the Kashmir Valley. In the most recent example, the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based organisation, came across a massive cache of documents associated with Qatar-based Sheikh Eid Bin Mohammad Al Thani Charitable Association, also referred to as Eid Charity. It is claimed that Eid Charity, perhaps out of ignorance of the nature of the donees, funnelled millions of dollars since 2008-09 into India, funding organisations associated with the Wahhabi school of thought that is in fact antithetical to Islam. Eid Charity came under global scrutiny in 2013 when one of its founders, Abd Al-Rahman al-Nu’aymi, was named as Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGTs) by the US Department of Treasury. He was sanctioned for providing financial and material support to Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Somalia. The association also works with other charity groups in Qatar, such as Qatar Charity and Foundation Sheikh Thani Ibn Abdullah for Humanitarian Services (RAF). Donations made by these are under investigation in the US and elsewhere. Qatar needs to avoid falling into the FATF “Grey List” in the manner that its close allies Pakistan and Turkey have.

Investigation of documents revealed over 1,200 transactions made to India either directly under the name of Eid Charity or through individualistic contributions. A total of QR 28.492855 million (USD 7.82 million approx.) were transferred to eight organisations in India. The money was distributed for projects ranging from direct financial support within the Muslim community to other religious and community action programs such as building/supporting mosques and building handpumps.

The Kerala-based Salafi Philanthropic Society, registered as Salafi Charitable Trust Narikkuni, received the largest cache of funds, involving around USD 4.9 million between 2008-17. This charity group is run by another Qatar-based charity group mentioned earlier, RAF. The RAF is run by a royal family member of Qatar and was black-listed for terror financing by Arab nations in 2017. The Foundation has serious charges levied against it, including funding Al Qaeda affiliated groups Al Nusra in Syria and arming Muslim-Brotherhood-backed fighters in Sudan. It denies such charges.

A large part of the money received by Salafi Charitable Trust was meant to be directed towards individual financial assistance within the poor Muslim population. Money was also given for projects such as countrywide distribution/promotions of Hijab. Dr Hussain Madavoor runs the trust as its chairman. He is one of Kerala’s most prominent religious figures and vice president of one of Kerala’s largest faith-based organisations, Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen (KNM), which has tried to project itself as a progressive group over the years.

In a video message posted on Facebook in 2018, Dr Madavoor supported Peace Education Foundation and its founder and managing director, M.M. Akbar. Peace Education Foundation has been on the radar of security agencies since 2016 when it came to public notice that several ISIS recruits from Kerala had an association with the foundation. Akbar is known for his controversial speeches and is often called “Zakir Naik of Kerala”, another Islamic preacher absconding from India on terrorism and money laundering charges. Akbar was arrested in 2017 while trying to fly to Qatar on the charges of radicalising school children through alleged radical content in Peace-funded schools.

In an audio message released by ISIS-KP, Abdul Rashid Abdullah, the mastermind behind the ISIS module in Kerala and former employee at Peace Foundation, claimed that there are ISIS supporters among the teachers and parents of Peace schools. He also alleged that during a public interview, the group tried to conceal the identity of at least two former employees of Peace Foundation who travelled to Afghanistan to join ISIS-KP.

During our investigation, it was found that Eid Charity funded an organisation named Peace Education Centre. It is hard to ascertain the identity of this organisation, which almost received all the funds in the name of financial support to an orphanage. However, the only possible link could be with the Peace Education Foundation mentioned above, which runs several educational and charitable institutions for orphans. If Peace Education Foundation received money from Eid Charity, it would be the most direct evidence of Eid Charity funding organisations in India that are alleged to be involved in radicalisation activities.

Eid Charity’s second-largest reserve of funds to India is transferred in the name of Symposium Educational Charitable Society. This organisation received around USD 2.01 million, yet our investigation disclosed no traces of any organisation with such a name in the public domain. Following the transactions, it came into notice that the money was transferred for projects mainly in the Siddharthnagar district of the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. A large sum of this money was given to Al-Farooq Group based in the Itwa area of the district. This group is directly funded by Eid Charity and is known for its dismissive stand against Sufi Islam, which is widely practised in India. The Itwa area also harbours other organisations with foreign backing, propagating fundamentalist Wahhabi interpretations that are intolerant towards non-Wahhabi Muslim sects.

Another organisation named Al Safa Educational, Industrial and Islamic Charitable Society received funds from Eid Charity. Another controversial preacher runs it from Kerala, Maulana Sheikh Meraj Rabbani, who was also arrested in 2010 over hate speech against other Muslim sects, including Barelvis and Sufis. Rabbani was also amongst several radical preachers in Kerala whose speeches allegedly aided the radicalisation of ISIS recruits. Rabbani is also involved in a high-profile Heera Gold fraud case, where he is alleged to have urged people to invest in a Ponzi scheme.

Most interestingly, a large amount of Eid Charity money is transferred to Al Safa in the name of supporting the operation of the Salafi Charitable Trust mentioned above. It shows that money from Qatar is circulated within these Salafist organisations. Many groups may only exist to work as proxy organisations to escape the scrutiny of law enforcement agencies and tax regulatory bodies. This could also be true since other recipients in the Eid Charity list, such as Al-Habib Educational and Charitable Foundation and Relevance Charitable Foundation, are publicly ghost, and our investigation couldn’t find any traces of their existence. These groups may be shell organisations, the most common practice amongst institutions funding global extremism and radicalisation.

Sowing Seeds of Extremism

The whole investigation shows that this funding mechanism has evolved and acquired a sophisticated form over the last several years. The non-uniformity of transactional patterns makes it almost impossible to ascertain the actual purpose for these funds. The money comes under small heads for small-scale undertakings, which are extremely hard to trace and makes it almost impossible to link this money with any nefarious anti-national activity. Most of these organisations have almost no online and popular media presence. Our investigation also couldn’t find any public records of using these funds or any social media promotion of any of the projects, a standard practice of other mainstream charity groups.

Another major cause of concern is the financial support for certain organisations in Kerala. Over the past years, this southern state of India has become the hub of radicalisation and recruitment ground for several transnational extremist groups. Some organisations in Kerala have constantly been accused of supporting violent extremism, and several ISIS recruits from the state have been associated and radicalised through them. Banned Kerala-based Islamist terror groups such as the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and groups like Popular Front of India (PFI) have used hardcore teachings to radicalise youth and recruitment. The fact that raises alarm is that these transactions also match the period when radicalisation and extremist trends in Kerala acquired a steeper trajectory. India has a rich history of progressive Islamic practices for centuries, and an external targeted design promoting extremism could disrupt the social fabric and become problematic for India’s national integrity. The recent decision by Government of India to tighten the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) is a welcome step in this direction. However, much more comprehensive tracking of suspect organisations is needed at the grass-roots level. Indian security and strategic community need to build a holistic approach to eradicate such networks, including through extensive involvement of civil society. Authorities in Qatar need to be made aware that without their knowledge or involvement, the kingdom may follow Turkey and Pakistan on the FATF grey list, given the extensive international investigation into the doings of several of its citizens.

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