It is a known fact that the prime conflict in West Asia is the Cold War between Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Arab states on one side and Shiite Iran on the other. This is mainly manifested through proxy wars in the region. The theatres where this Cold War plays out are Yemen and Syria. Here Iran receives strong support from Russia and China.

Shifting Allegiance

Although Iraq had been the focal point of the power struggle in West Asia, the US is a significant player here. Since the US toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, it has been a major security partner for Iraq. About 5,000 US troops are currently deployed in Iraq.

On the other hand, Iran is one of the most powerful neighbours of Iraq and its political elite share deep historical ties with the Iranian regime. Further, Iraqi Shia militia takes its orders from Tehran and not Baghdad. Hence, Iraq is unlikely to ignore Iran. Further, Iraq had expressed its dissent over US’s unilateral use of air power targeting Iraqi militias on its soil. Hence, post-Suleimani’s assassination, Iraq firmly backs Iran.

Turkish forces are deployed in Syria, which is a key Iranian ally and in due course can come in support of Iran. Although Turkey is a NATO member country, it’s stand could be unpredictable. Turkey’s President Erdogan is Russia’s close friend as evident from its import of S-400 ballistic missile defence system. It is close to the Iranians, too.

Iran’s Allies – Different Actors

Late Gen Suleimani has been credited to have been the main architect of Iran’s foreign operations. Since the time he took over the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in 1998, he extended operations of the unit by deepening Iran’s links with its proxy groups such as Hezbollah and the Badr Organisationand built new militias such as the Shia Popular Mobilisation Units and Houthis. Some of them are mentioned below.

Iraqi Militia. Iran has financed and trained Iraqi Shia militia numbering more than 140,000 fighters. The Popular Mobalisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of pro-Iran Iraq militias, was established in 2014 under the leadership of GenSuleimani with an objective to retain Assad’s regime and defeat the Islamic State (IS) in Syria. The PMF is constituted by organizations such as Kataib Hezbollah, Badr Orgnisation and Karaib al-Imam Ali. It is through them that Iran could exercise substantial influence on Iraq’s politics. 

The PMF played asignificant role in defeating IS fighting alongside the Iraqi Army, while the US provided air cover. However, once the IS was defeated and tension between US and Iran started to rise with US withdrawing from the nuclear deal, the PMF started attacking US forces in Iraq. With US’s retaliatory attacks, the situation became chaotic. 

Lebonon’s Hezbollah. IRGC founded the Hezbollah group during Lebanon’s civil war in the 1980s. It is known to be among the most efficient and effective armed groups in the region extending Iran’s influence to Israel. They are also effectively fighting in Syria.

Syria. Apart from Hezbollah, other armed groups such as Iraqi Nujaba and Fatemiyoun group have beenstrong allies of Iran and have been actively fighting in Syria.

Gaza Militia. Iran has long supported Palestinian militant groups, including Gaza’s Hamas rulers and the smaller Islamic Jihad group.

Yemen’s Houthis. They are Yemen’s Shia rebels. They captured the capital with support from Iran. They are currently fighting the Yemeni government, which is backed by a Saudi-led coalition.

Other than the above mentioned proxies, Iran receives strong support from both Russia and China. The three countries participated in a trilateral military exercise in December 2019.

US’s Intervention

It was not action by the Iranian military but by Iranian proxies in Iraq that put in motion the chain of events leading to the killing of Suleimani. It was Kataib Hezbollah, responsible for the rocket attacks on Iraqi bases in December 2019, that killed an American contractor and injured several soldiers. Therefore, in a sense, the US has already shown that it can be provoked by Iranian proxies. In this way, US has put itself and its allies, such as Israel, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, in a profoundly dangerous strategic position. In an attempt to deter Iran with maximalist threats, US has given independent armed militias the power to escalate conflict between two sovereign nations with a possibility of war involving other sovereign states of the region.

Gen Suleimani was not an impossible target for the previous US presidents but they chose not to take that route as the risk outweighed the benefits. US president Donald Trumps’s decision to attack Suleimani could result in a tsunamic effect not just for the US or the region but for the entire world. Although US officials have defended their attack saying that Iran’s allies in different parts of the region under the leadership of Suleimani were planning more attacks on US installations in the region and the assassination was to deter them. However, the fact remains that Iran is adamant on a complete end to the US presence in the region.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in January, after Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile strikes on US installations, “What is important is that America’s corrupt presence must come to an end in this region.” Hence, more attacks on US troops and installations can be expected.

Further, extending Trump’s maximum economic pressure, the US State Department issued a statement on 23 January 2020 imposing further sanctions on a Chinese, a UAE and two Hong Kong-based companies and two individuals for trading with the National Iran Oil Company (NIOC). The US stated that the sanctions were imposed on account of the fact that these entities had collectively transferred millions to NIOC, which was instrumental in financing Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force and other terrorists groups and militias that were active in the region.

Impact on India

India is concerned about the safety of the 10 million strong diaspora in West Asia,which sends at least $40 billion in remittances annually.Remittancesfrom this regionaccount for much of India’s foreign exchange earnings. Increased tensions can trigger their return to India.

lf a war between Iran and the US actually breaks out, India will be asked by the US to permit the American military to operate out of Indian bases along the border with Pakistan under the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) between the two countries.

In the recent India-US summit involving the foreign and defence ministers of the two countries, the US side had expressed eagerness to activate LEMOA. With Asian Islamic countries, including Pakistan, unwilling to be a part of any America-led military action in the region, the US would have been constrained to seek Indian cooperation. Such collaboration with the US might jeopardize India’s relations with other West Asian states like Iran and it’s allies.

India and Iran share deep historical, political, economic and strategic ties with each other. Both the states shared a 959 km border till 1947.Also, Persian used to be the court language in Delhi until Urdu edged it out.

India will not want Chabahar Port, a new transit route between India, Iran and Afghanistan bypassing Pakistan to be compromised.

Iran had emerged as the single largest importer of Indian tea, taking over 50 million kgs in 2019, which is about 10% of India’s total tea exports.

Because of US sanctions on Iranian oil, India had had to import oil from the US and Saudi Arabia at a higher cost. Iran wanted to sell more than 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) to India and had offered near free shipping and an extended credit period. However, the Indian leadershipwithdrew under threat of US sanctions.

Except for urging caution, India may not have any diplomatic space to influence the situation in the region. India’s key crude oil suppliers include Iraq, Saudi, UAE and Kuwait. A war, if it happens, could disrupt India’s oil supply lines which could be disastrous for India since it imports 84% of its oil requirements from the region.

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The threat of a major escalation in US-Iran tensions appears to be rising following General Soleimani’s death. Millions have expressed concern about the assassination and whether it could become the trigger for World War 3.

Tensions have been growing between the US and Iran since 2018 when Donald Trump announced the US would be withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal. Additionally, an independent US report warned the stage had been set for a full-scale war, with the US President filling his administration with hardliners.

However, World War 3 is not official and no nations have as yet declared war on another.

Likely Iranian Targets

The US embassy in Baghdad, which has been the target of attacks, is likely to see renewed action, while military patrols and bases could be hit by ground troops and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

There are some 5,000 US troops currently stationed around Iraq, with more on the way, all of whom are now targets for Shia militias which have fought for Iran – and in some cases directly with Soleimani – in the past. Targets in Iran’s crosshairs may include US troops and military bases in Iraq and Syria, Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.

The Quds Force, which Solemani controlled for almost two decades, will orchestrate the attacks from behind the scenes and may become directly involved in order to avenge their beloved leader’s death. In the past, questions have been raised over whether Quds Forces operate independently of the regime in Tehran, raising the prospect of attacks even if not directly ordered by Tehran.

Escalatory Ladder

If Tehran decides to strike Israel, Golan Heights region could be trageted with Hezbollah providing support, though Tel Aviv has warned that Iranian missiles can range much further across its borders.

China has ships in the Gulf of Oman. China, Russia and Iran recently carried out joint naval drills.

Any escalation by Tehran through Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen against Saudi Arabia would be met with a response from Riyadh.

Strikes on these targets could lead to a tit-for-tat series of events. Russian forces stationed in Syria defending a key Iranian ally in Bashar al-Assad, and Turkish forces fighting in the country’s north, could get involved. Turkish troops are deployed in northern Syria and. Being a member of NATO, Turkey’s actions would be unpredictable if a conflict escalates across the region. Turkey’s president Recep Erdogan is close to Russia and Iran as well.

Nuclear Weapons

US, China, Russia and Israel all have nuclear weapons – with at least three of those possessing next-generation hypersonic missiles capable of breaching all defence systems.

Israel is also armed with nuclear weapons and is an obvious target for any Iranian attacks, but Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will not hesitate to defend themselves and have recently struck Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Syria. 

In the case of conflict Iran could ramp up its nuclear programme. It has breached Uranium stockpile limits and has been enriching to above energy-grade levels since Trump cancelled the nuclear deal. It could begin enriching to weapons-grade levels in response to the latest threat. In that case, US warships, bombers and cruise missiles could be used to take out the facilities.

Strait of Hormuz

One of the most extreme option available to Iran would be closing the Strait of Hormuz completely, cutting off a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. While Tehran has often threatened to close the waterway, such a move would almost certainly prompt a response from US carrier groups in the region as well as dragging in other world powers who rely on the oil.

Iran could choose to harass, disable or destroy oil tankers sailing in the Persian Gulf which separates it from the Arabia Peninsula, potentially disrupting a key source of income for the Saudis.

Iranian Forces

Iran has the world’s 13th most powerful military. In addition, there are a host of proxy militia forces spread across the Middle East, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and allies like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

Iran can draw reserves from a population of some 82 million. It has an arsenal of ballistic missiles, tanks, attack helicopters, fast jets and gunboats.

Iran’s biggest asset is geography – surrounded on three sides by mountains, a fourth by ocean, and with a vast desert at its center, it poses a formidable obstacle – even for the US Army.

Cyber War

Cyber attacks have also become an increasingly popular method of warfare and could be used by both Iran, America and their allies to attempt to win an early upper hand.

Targets would likely include Iranian nuclear facilities – which were successfully targeted with the Stuxnet virus in the past – communications equipment, radar, power networks and other key infrastructure.

Stand-off Warfare

To nullify the threat of American drones, Iran could use anti-aircraft missiles to shoot them down, as it did in June 2019. Iranian missiles could also be trained on US warships around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, but this would be an extreme option and likely only taken after a ground invasion. 

Syria

Bashar al-Assad is a close ally of Iran, and owes the continued existence of his regime in large part to the personal intervention of Soleimani, who helped him turn the tide of Syria’s years-long civil war along with Russia.

Assad could be persuaded to ignore attacks by pro-Iran militias against several hundred US troops and Kurds remaining in Syria after Donald Trump ordered a withdrawal.

Russia has ground forces stationed in Syria defending a key Iranian ally in Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s latest S400 anti-aircraft systems in Syria could be used against American jets and bombers in the event the crisis spirals into a wider war. If fighting escalates then Russian forces stationed across Syria could quickly become embroiled, along with Turkish forces currently deployed in the north.

ISIS will also likely exploit the situation to try and pit the sides against each-other, allowing them to seize back territory they lost in recent years.

Lebanon

The country is controlled by Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy fighting force, which has vowed ‘worldwide resistance’ following Soleimani’s death. The group could launch rocket attacks against targets in Israel, as well as anti-aircraft attacks against Israeli jets and drones operating in the region.

Iran also exerts control over Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, both of which operate in the Gaza Strip and could be used to cause further problems for Israel.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has seen attacks against its oil infrastructure in recent months which were blamed on Tehran. Saudi oil infrastructure is likely to feature in Iran’s plans for strikes in the region, following on from major disruption caused after a drone and missile attack on the country’s largest oil refinery last year, though security was massively ramped up afterwards, making success far from a sure thing.

Yemen

Iran has been fighting a proxy-war in Yemen using Houthi rebels, fighting against Saudi forces which are allied to the ruling regime. Attacks against the Saudis could increase, and Iran could use Houthi drones and guided missiles to launch attacks against pipelines in Saudi Arabia and other infrastructure as it has done in the past.

Afghanistan

The US has just reached a ceasefire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan in an attempt to put an end to the longest war it has ever fought. But, as in Iraq and Syria, Iran has links with Shia militias across the region which it could leverage in an attempt to derail the process and plunge the region back into conflict, further extending US engagement there. 

Qatar

The country houses the largest American military base in the Middle East, at Al Udeid, which is home to some 10,000 troops and dozens of fighters and bombers including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers. If all-out war breaks out with Iran, then Al Udeid air base in Qatar will be at the center of US efforts to establish air superiority in the event of a wider war. There are dozens of aircraft at the base, including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers.

U.S. Retaliation

The United States has a vast array of military hardware in the Middle East and Persian Gulf. Among the military options are F22 Raptor fighters based in Dubai, cruise missile-armed Ohio class submarines and aircraft carriers and US Special Forces who are still based in northern Iraq and Syria. Strategic assets such as B2 Stealth bombers can also strike by flying over from the US mainland, and – in the ultimate event – America can also field nuclear weapons fired from silos on the mainland at virtually anywhere in the world.

Russian Forces

Tens of thousands of Russian troops and aircraft are based in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They include special forces and the feared S400 anti-aircraft missile – the most advanced missile system in the world. If the conflict escalates, Russia could feel compelled to defend its ally or Iran or retaliate if its troops are killed as collateral damage by the US. It could also use strategic assets based in Russia such long range missiles and long-range bombers, along with ships and submarines based in the Mediterranean at Sevastopol.

Israel’s Response

If Israel is attacked by Iran it is sure to retaliate. It has nuclear weapons and an array of advanced fighter jets capable of launching strikes at Iran and Iranian forces in Syria, as it has done in the past. Its special forces are also among the most feared in the world, and stationed across the region.

Most Likely Scenario

The most likely outcome will be an intensified period of proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, staying just below the conventional threshold, given Iran’s inability to survive an overwhelming US’ “retaliatory” strike if Trump authorized one in response to the unlikely massive missile strike that some speculate Tehran might be preparing. The US might also carry out “surgical strikes” against places in Iran where it might claim other strikes were “organized”, such as an attempt to repeat the drone strike against Saudi Aramco from last September. “Decapitation strikes” might, therefore, become increasingly more frequent and nobody would be safe, since the US just signaled that it has the political will to take out “high-value targets”. As all of this unfolds, Russia and China will do their utmost to stay away from any regional fray and definitely would not intervene to defend Iran. As such, Iran’s expected responses will be purely asymmetrical and not conventional.

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Four precision missiles were fired from a deadly remote-controlled 4,900-pound U.S. drone, decimating a convoy that Soleimani was traveling in and tore his body ‘to shreds’.  

The strike, regarded as perhaps the riskiest American move in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, threatened to inflame hostilities across the region.

Muhandis, who was killed with Soleimani, oversaw Iraq´s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella grouping of paramilitary groups mostly consisting of Iran-backed Shi´ite militias that was formally integrated into Iraqi armed forces.

While American forces did not make it clear how they had tracked Soleimani’s location, he was thought to be under near-constant surveillance by US, Saudi and Israeli security forces. The attack drew upon a combination of highly classified information from informants, electronic intercepts, reconnaissance aircraft and other surveillance techniques. Soleimani survived several assassination attempts against him by Western, Israeli and Arab agencies over the past two decades.

The strike probably ended any prospect of negotiations to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the landmark nuclear agreement Iran signed in 2015 with the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany. The escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran began with the 2018 decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from the deal.

Quds Force

The US Defense Department said that the air strike was justified to protect American lives. ‘General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region,’ a Pentagon statement said. The statement added that Soleimani ‘orchestrated attacks on coalition bases in Iraq over the last several months’ including the embassy assault.

Quds Force, along with its stable of paramilitary proxies from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to the PMF in Iraq, has ample means to launch a multi-barrelled response against its enemies.

Quds Force, tasked with carrying out operations beyond Iran’s borders, shored up support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad when he looked close to defeat in the civil war raging since 2011 and also helped militiamen defeat Islamic State in Iraq.

Soleimani became head of the Quds Force in 1998, a position in which he kept a low profile for years while he strengthened Iran’s ties with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria’s government and Shi´ite militia groups in Iraq.

Soleimani, who has led the foreign arm of the Revolutionary Guards and has had a key role in fighting in Syria and Iraq, acquired celebrity status at home and abroad.

Trump’s Justification

The strike on 3 January was the latest escalation between the two nations after a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base, believed to have been carried out by an Iran-backed militia, killed an American contractor on 27 December.

The United States hit back with air strikes on an Iranian-backed militia that killed 24 and prompted outrage among some who saw that attack as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Pro-Iranian demonstrators broke into the United States Embassy compound on 31 December. The breach prompted Trump to order roughly 750 additional American troops to be deployed to the region. The Pentagon was also ready to deploy 4,000 troops based at Fort Bragg for a similar security mission to Kuwait. 

“Suleimani was plotting imminent and sinister attacks on American diplomats and military personnel, but we caught him in the act and terminated him,” Trump said, speaking to reporters from his resort in West Palm Beach, Florida. “We took action last night to stop a war, we did not take action to start a war.”

Trump said the United States was not seeking regime change in Iran, but called for Tehran’s “aggression in the region” to immediately end. He also warned Iran against retaliating, saying, “If Americans anywhere are threatened, we have all of those targets already fully identified, and I am ready and prepared to take whatever action is necessary.”

In September, US officials blamed Iran for a devastating missiles and drones attack on oil installations of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state energy giant and world’s largest oil exporter. The Trump administration did not respond, beyond heated rhetoric and threats.

Reactions of Iran’s Proxies

Iranian allies across the Arab world condemned the United States, reflecting the strength of the regional network Gen Suleimani spent much of his life building, including links to the government of Syria and militant groups in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and elsewhere.

The leader of Hezbollah vowed in a statement that his group would continue on the path the general set and “work night and day to achieve his goals.”

In Yemen, the administration run by the Houthi rebels condemned the United States strike as a “cowardly attack” that “makes clear the increasing American spite against all who are in favor of justice for the Islamic world.”

In Syria, a foreign ministry official condemned the “treacherous, criminal American aggression” that led to his killing.

Hamas condemned what it called “U.S. bullying” that it said served the interests of Israel.

World Powers’ Reaction

António Guterres, the United Nations’ secretary general, voiced his deep concern over the rise in tensions in the Middle East. “The world cannot afford another war in the Gulf,” spokesman Farhan Haq said in a statement. “This is a moment in which leaders must exercise maximum restraint,” it said.

China, Russia, the UK and France, all permanent members of the UN Security Council, took a dim view of the US air strike.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called the killing of General Suleimani “an adventurist step that will increase tensions throughout the region,” according to local news agencies.

A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry called for restraint on all sides, “especially the United States.” “China has always opposed the use of force in international relations,” the spokesman, Geng Shuang, said at a daily news briefing.

Britain’s foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, called for a de-escalation in tensions and said that further conflict in the region was not in his country’s interest. “We have always recognized the aggressive threat posed by the Iranian Quds force led by Qassim Suleimani,” Raab said in a statement. “Following his death, we urge all parties to de-escalate.”

In France,  the country’s junior minister for European affairs, Amélie de Montchalin, said that she would soon consult with countries in the region. “We have woken up to a more dangerous world,” Ms. de Montchalin told French radio, calling for “stability and de-escalation.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel praised Trump for the strikes for “acting swiftly, forcefully and decisively.” Netanyahu cut short an official visit to Greece to return to Israel.

Congress was divided over the killing. The strike immediately spurred debate among American lawmakers about President Trump’s war powers and left congressional leaders sharply divided along party lines.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi demanded that the administration brief the full Congress on the strike and the next steps under consideration, noting that the move was made without lawmakers’ consultation or an authorization of military force.

The strike, Pelosi said in a statement, “risks provoking further dangerous escalation of violence. America – and the world – cannot afford to have tensions escalate to the point of no return.”

In stark contrast, Republican lawmakers – including both Iran hawks and those who have frequently clashed with Trump over his foreign policy – almost uniformly praised the move.

Iran’s Response

Soleimani’s death is a considerable blow to Tehran, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called for retaliation and for three days of national mourning. Iran’s security body also pledged to avenge Gen Suleimani’s killing in the “right place and time,” saying it had reached a decision on how to do so.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Soleimani’s assassination would strengthen resistance against the United States and Israel in the region and the world. ‘The brutality and stupidity of American terrorist forces in assassinating Commander Soleimani…will undoubtedly make the tree of resistance in the region and the world more prosperous,’ Zarif said in a statement.

In the hours after the American strike, thousands of pro-Iranian social media accounts went to work.

Whether from actual accounts or state-backed bots, pro-Iranian and anti-American content was tweeted at a rate of 3,000 tweets every 45 minutes, according to New York Times data.

Iran may begin a digital campaign of cyber attacks and disinformation in retaliation for Gen Suleimani’s death. Over the past year, Iranian hackers have taken aim at Trump’s presidential campaign. They have also targeted telecom companies, infrastructure systems and more than 200 oil, gas and heavy machinery companies around the world.

Over the past five years, American officials and cyber security experts have tracked Iranian hackers as they have significantly advanced their capabilities beyond wiping data to sophisticated attacks on financial networks, internet infrastructure and energy companies.

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Where The Drone Struck

Gen Qassen Suleimani landed at Baghdad airport on a plane from either Syria or Lebanon around 12.30am. He was met on the tarmac by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.  

Soleimani and Mohammed Ridha Jabri, public relations chief for the PMF were driven away.

As the cars passed through a cargo area, the convoy was struck by missiles fired by an MQ-9 Reaper drone.

Both vehicles were instantly reduced to smoldering wrecks – killing Soleimani, Muhandis, Jabri and two others.

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MQ-9 Reaper

The unmanned drone that rains Hellfire from 50,000ft and can tear bodies ‘to shreds’

The devastating US drone has a range of 1,150 miles and is able to to fly at altitudes of 50,000 feet. It is an ‘armed, multi-mission, medium-altitude, long-endurance’ remotely piloted aircraft.

It is primarily used to execute targets – such as Soleimani – and secondarily to collect intelligence, according to the U.S. Air Force.

The drone is capable of annihilating targets with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles which provide ‘highly accurate’ and ‘low-collateral damage’ capabilities. 

AGM-114 Hellfire missiles – which are laser guided and subsonic – are so powerful that they are used to take out tanks. They can also be used as an air-to-air weapon against helicopters and other aircraft.

The 4,900-pound drone has a wingspan of 66 feet and a cruising speed of roughly 230mph.

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