After a long hiatus marked by minimal diplomatic interactions, Pakistan and the US have witnessed a significant renewal in their engagement over the past few months. This discernible reset in US-Pakistan relations is characterized by enhanced defence cooperation, economic agreements, and high-level symbolism. Pakistan’s Army Chief has made two official visits to the US in as many months, reflecting a change in the approach of the US. Unprecedented invitations to a private White House lunch with President Donald Trump and the change of command at CENTCOM highlight the reestablishment of close military-to-military and diplomatic ties. The Trump administration has also recalibrated its approach to Pakistan, unveiling a “massive” oil exploration and development deal, and discussing broader cooperation in critical minerals, trade, technology, and counterterrorism. Although several factors have contributed to this shift, media coverage has particularly emphasized Pakistan’s endorsement of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as a personal glorification, along with the signing of a deal with World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency firm connected to the US President’s family. Underlying strategic reasons include possible future assistance in addressing Iran if required, changing regional dynamics marked by rising US-India trade tensions, new US tariffs on Indian goods, and Washington’s growing frustration with India over its increasing purchases of Russian oil and arms. Unlike in the past, Pakistan is positioning itself as a multidimensional partner of the US to enhance its leverage, not just as a security enabler.

The use of terrorism against India as an instrument of state policy by Pakistan began in 1989. Pakistan’s importance to Washington has fluctuated—peaking during periods such as the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, US military engagement in Afghanistan post-9/11, and more recently when Pakistan has been viewed as a facilitator in the Afghan peace process. Historically, terrorist activities in J&K have tended to increase whenever Pakistan’s strategic utility to the United States has risen. Relying on US support as a shield, Islamabad has perceived greater latitude to support proxy war operations with reduced fear of international repercussions and strong punitive measures. During these periods, Pakistan has benefited from increased political leverage and aid flows, while militant groups operating in J&K have often found greater freedom of action. The highest numbers of terrorist killings in J&K occurred during the 1990s and early 2000s, which were the peak years of militancy. During this period, a large portion of the overall casualties—estimated at around 41,000 deaths, including civilians, security personnel, and terrorists—took place. In the 2010s, escalations in terror attacks like the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack coincided with critical moments in US-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan. Therefore, empirically, the Kargil conflict of 1999 and other surges in violence occurred during or just after periods of intense US-Pakistan cooperation. However, despite periods of global anti-terror pressure, infrastructure and support for militants have persisted in Pakistan, with the involvement of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in training, arming, and financing these groups.

Operation Sindoor, initiated on May 7, 2025, in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 innocent civilians, achieved its strategic and military objectives decisively. These objectives were to punish the perpetrators and planners of terror, destroy their infrastructure, demonstrate resolve, raise costs, impose caution on Pakistan, and thus restore deterrence that had waned since the Balakot air strikes five years ago. India has also adopted a declaratory policy on May 10, stating that any future act of terror will be considered an act of war against the country and will be responded to accordingly. This being an inflection point, the India-Pakistan equation has changed permanently by introducing the certainty of retaliation to every attack. However, it is important to distinguish between high-profile terrorist attacks like Mumbai, Uri, Pulwama, and Pahalgam, and localized, low-intensity terrorist incidents in J&K, which has been suffering from militancy abetted by Pakistan since the late 1980s. These low-intensity attacks, which have been occurring in J&K regularly, cannot be construed as a loss of deterrence.

Now, with Pakistan’s utility to the US having surged, it will be emboldened to continue the proxy war against India and keep tensions simmering. Therefore, terrorist actions below the tolerance threshold—restricted to J&K, targeted killings of migrants, tactical actions on the Line of Control (LC), and trans-LC firing—are likely to continue. The current estimated number of active terrorists in J&K, according to police and intelligence reports, is around 120, with 61 being foreign terrorists. Therefore, to make up numbers, a spike in infiltration of terrorists across the borders in J&K is very likely in the next few months before winter snows make passage across the LC in Kashmir difficult. Murmurs of statehood being restored in J&K are also likely to build pressure on Pakistan to direct terrorist handlers to initiate incidents to demonstrate that it is a disputed territory. These efforts will be complemented by increased narcotics smuggling—especially using drones—incitement of communal violence, and the smuggling of fake Indian currency notes, among other activities aimed at destabilizing India.

This can be related to recent media reports and intelligence inputs alluding to Pakistan having reactivated and rebuilt over 15 terrorist training camps and launch pads within the last 90 days in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), following India’s Operation Sindoor. Pakistan’s ISI and other government agencies are reportedly providing substantial funding—estimated at more than PKR100 crore—and logistical support to rebuild these camps. The reconstructed camps are smaller in size to avoid detection and are equipped with advanced technological counter-surveillance measures such as radar camouflage, satellite masking, and drone usage. These camps are located across various places in POK, including Kel, Shardi, Dudhniyal, Athmuqam, Jura, Leepa Valley, Tandpani, Nayyali, Jankot, Chakothi, and others. Additionally, four launch pads along the International Border in the Jammu region have also been reactivated. The terrorists are apparently using lessons from Operation Sindoor by employing smaller camps of about two dozen militants and dispersing locations to evade Indian intelligence and military forces. The rebuilt infrastructure efficiently supports recruitment, training, and operational planning for attacks in J&K.

Until US interests shift and Pakistan feels greater pressure to curb such activities again, the security forces need to retain and sustain a robust counter-infiltration posture on the LC, as well as an extensive counter-terrorism grid in the depth areas of J&K, irrespective of overall violence levels. At present, there is no room for complacency or lowering the guard, given the improved security situation in J&K. The gains made by the security forces should not be squandered at this stage.

The author is a former Vice Chief of Army Staff

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Reversing the decision of its predecessor, the Biden Administration has approved a whopping $450 million F-16 fighter jet fleet sustainment programme to Pakistan. This is the first major security assistance to Pakistan after Trump ceased it in 2018alleging that Islamabad was not a partner in its fight against terrorism.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification, on 7 September, notifying Congress of this possible foreign military sale, arguing that that would sustain Islamabad’s capability to meet current and future counter-terrorism threats by maintaining its F-16 fleet.

According to the Congressional notification, the proposed sale does not include any new capabilities, weapons, or munitions.

It said that Pakistan has requested to consolidate prior F-16 sustainment and support cases to support the Pakistan Air Force F-16 fleet by reducing duplicate case activities and adding additional continued support elements.

The $450 million foreign military sale to Pakistan participation in F-16 Aircraft Structural Integrity Programme, electronic combat international security assistance programme, international engine management programme, engine component improvement programme, and other technical coordination groups; aircraft and engine hardware and software modifications and support and aircraft and engine spare repair/return parts.

The Pentagon said this proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by allowing Pakistan to retain interoperability with US and partner forces in ongoing counter-terrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations. According to the Congressional notification, the proposed sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military balance in the region.

Pakistan and US watchers believe that the F-16 support has been given to Rawalpindi because of the following reasons:

— Gen Bajwa has been instrumental in supplying ammunition in support of Ukraine’s war effort against Pakistan’s newfound ally Russia using British aircraft.

— It is also a reward for the Pakistan Army led by Gen Bajwa for remaining neutral during the ouster of former PM Imran Khan Niazi, who once was weaponized by the same Army Chief to get rid of Nawaz Sharif in the last general elections. Niazi was in Moscow and met ally Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, the day the Red Army invaded Ukraine.

— It is also US recognition for Gen Bajwa’s efforts to lower down temperatures with India on the Line of Control (LoC) with guns falling silent on the borders.

Indian Response

Although the United States is a QUAD partner and a close ally, India has not taken the Biden administration’s decision to provide $450 million F-16 fighter support to Pakistan lying down and expressed its displeasure through diplomatic channels to Washington.

The Modi government is not amused with this development and has let the Biden administration know about its views on the entire issue as the fighters will be used against India like they were on February 27, 2019 as a retaliation to India’s Balakot strike on Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist camp a day earlier.

Although the support is only to maintain the F-16 fighters with Pakistan and not upgradation of military capabilities or fresh ordnance or air to air missiles, India is cheesed with the narrative put out by the US State Department to justify the foreign military sale for sustainment and related equipment for the fighters.

Pakistan’s Acquisition of F-16s

The supply of F-16 multi role aircraft began in the Cold war scenario and continued throughout the post-9/11 era till the Biden administration.

Pakistan first received the F-16 aircraft package from the Ronald Reagan administration in the 1980s despite heavy objection from the Government of India which cautioned that the aircraft would be used against Indian targets. Indian objection was based on the findings that Pakistan would arm the F-16s with nuclear weapons that it had procured in a clandestine manner. President Reagan however cleared the sale despite opposition from certain members of the US Congress and CIA’s counter proliferation wing.

In 1990, U.S. cancelled the delivery of nearly 30 F-16 aircraft to Pakistan after the Pressler Amendment came into effect. The nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998, further confirmed the Indian concerns about the danger posed by nuclear-armed F-16 aircraft in Pakistan’s air force.

The U.S. has repeatedly used the strategic aircraft as a tool in its diplomatic relation with Pakistan. In 2001, following the al Qaeda attack on the World Trade Center in New York, the US had released a package of $3 billion to refit and supply new F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. With nearly 2000 miles as its range of operation, the F-16 has obvious usage against Pakistan’s primary military rival – India. The subsequent findings of widespread terrorist network inside Pakistan and the attacks against US citizens like Daniel Pearl could not dent the decision taken by the George W. Bush administration.

A similar decision to supply F-16 aircraft was taken in late 2015, when the Obama administration was in negotiation with the Pakistan-backed Taliban leaders in exile for an exit strategy for the U.S. forces from Afghanistan. India had vehemently protested against the sale of F-16 fighters to Pakistan and the then Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar had summoned US Ambassador Richard Verma and lodged a strong protest against the Obama administration’s decision.

The sale of spares is meant for about 19 block-52 aircraft. Reportedly, the PAF has about a squadron strength of these aircraft and two other squadrons. The PAF is also keen to replace its old French Mirage aircraft but F-16 is certainly not an option as Islamabad would not have the cash to pay for Western aircraft. The evolving geo-political circumstances also don’t seem to suggest that floodgates to American military and economic aid would open like in the past.

Comments

The Biden administration’s decision to refit Pakistan’s F-16 aircraft fleet with the latest weapons and electronic systems indicates that despite the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States will continue to maintain strong strategic commitment to the armed forces of Pakistan.

The $450 million support for Pakistan F-16 program could be a precursor to getting Islamabad removed from FATF’s grey list and as reward for Rawalpindi supplying ammunition to Ukraine. Islamabad’s move to ask the Taliban regime to locate and arrest super Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar is part of FATF relief exercise.

While the US has provided support in the name of counter-terrorism and as per lifetime F-16 fighter support contract with Pakistan, the real reasons lie within the Rawalpindi Headquarters and with Army Chief Gen Qamar Jawed Bajwa.

The fact is that Pakistan desperately needs spare parts for its F-16 fleet as the Chinese JF-17 aircraft has come out a cropper in military terms. Even during the Feb 27, 2019 strike, the Pakistani F-16 fired missiles at intercepting Indian fighters with the JF-17 fighters playing no role in the counter-offensive.

The upswing in America-Pakistan defence ties during Biden’s rule is an ominous sign for India, which should first safeguard its strategic interests and be wary of America’s ploy to use it as a pawn against China. New Delhi must call out Washington for its dubious policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.

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