His comments come days after Indian and Chinese military commanders held a fresh round of talks on December 20 to resolve the remaining issues along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh – the first high-level talks after troops of the two sides clashed in Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh on December 9.

Addressing a symposium on the international situation and China’s foreign relations in 2022, Wang said: “China and India have maintained communication through the diplomatic and military-to-military channels, and both countries are committed to upholding stability in the border areas… We stand ready to work with India in the direction toward steady and sound growth of China-India relations.”

Wang, along with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, is the Special Representative of the India-China boundary mechanism which has remained dormant in the current standoff.

India and China have held 17 rounds of talks so far to resolve the standoff. A joint statement issued last Thursday after the 17th round, said the talks were “frank and in-depth” and “in line with the guidance provided by the leaders of the two countries to work for the resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest”.

 “In the interim, the two sides agreed to maintain the security and stability on the ground in the Western sector,” it said, referring to the eastern Ladakh region.

In September, Indian and Chinese troops disengaged in the Gogra-Hot Spring area, the last of the acknowledged “friction points” that were discussed over 16 rounds of Corps Commander level talks that began in June 2020, after Chinese incursions at several points weeks earlier.

Tensions in Ladakh continue over the presence of Chinese troops in Depsang, intrusions in Demchok and the rapid Chinese infrastructure build-up, including two bridges over Pangong Tso that will reduce Chinese mobilisation time on the lake’s southern bank.

Indian and Chinese troops clashed in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector in the early hours of December 9, assaulting each other with sticks and canes in their closest encounter since the deadly Galwan incident in eastern Ladakh in June 2020.

Asked whether the incident in Arunachal Pradesh was raised during the talks, the MEA spokesperson had refrained from giving a direct response. “We can all speculate but since I don’t have a confirmation, I am not going to be able to confirm that. We did talk about, to be honest, the Western sector. So if it has not been raised, I wouldn’t be surprised. Let me not make a comment either,” he had said.

 “We have been emphasising that our soldiers will stand firm to guard our frontiers. So I don’t want to say anything beyond that,” he had said.

In his lengthy address on China’s diplomatic work, Wang, who was elevated to the ruling Communist Party of China’s (CPC) political bureau during the recent party Congress, focused more on China’s troubled ties with the US and burgeoning relations with Russia, despite the Ukraine war.

“We have deepened good-neighbourliness, friendship and cooperation with Russia, and made China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination more mature and resilient,” Wang said. “Over the past year, China and Russia have firmly supported each other in upholding respective core interests, and our political and strategic mutual trust has been further consolidated,” he said.

Wang also spoke about China’s opposition to “bloc confrontation”. Beijing has always opposed the Quad grouping comprising the US, India, Australia and Japan, as well as the AUKUS alliance of the US, Australia, and the UK.

“We have continued to reject bloc confrontation and zero-sum competition, and maintained strategic stability in relations with other major countries,” Wang said.

He said the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have projected a resounding voice for global equity and justice, and injected strong impetus into global economic recovery and development.

Wang also briefly touched on China’s ties with Pakistan, saying the two countries have “continued to firmly support each other, uphold the invaluable all-weather strategic partnership, and consolidate the iron-clad friendship”.

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Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi on 25 March 2022, the first by a top Chinese official after the 2020 clashes. Neither Beijing nor New Delhi made an official announcement about Wang’s visit.

That Wang chose to visit was a surprise, that India agreed to the visit was a bigger one. The visit was considered a diplomatic breakthrough given the slump in bilateral ties since the standoff in Ladakh started in 2020.

Speaking after the visit, Jaishankar no time line was agreed upon for disengagement and de-escalation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). A parallel but a separate discussion took place in regard to sorting out the situation in border areas.  He said 15 rounds of talks were held between the Corps Commanders of the two Armies since April 2020 leading to some progress at several friction points.

Wang at OIC

Wang’s visit to New Delhi came just a day after his comments on Jammu and Kashmir at an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, managed to irk New Delhi.

At the OIC meeting before leaving for New Delhi, Wang said: “On Kashmir, we have heard again today the calls of many of our Islamic friends. And China shares the same hope.”

This drew a sharp reaction from the Ministry of External Affairs. The MEA spokesperson said: “We reject the uncalled reference to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his speech at the Opening Ceremony (of the OIC meeting).”

 “Matters related to the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir are entirely the internal affairs of India. Other countries, including China, have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India refrains from public judgement of their internal issues,” he said.

Delegation-level Talks

National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval told Wang Yi that there was a need to push for early and complete disengagement at the LAC for bilateral ties to return to their natural course.

During delegation-level talks at the South Block in the national capital, India made it clear that continuation of the present situation was not in mutual interest.

The Chinese side invited NSA Doval to visit China to take forward the mandate of Special Representatives on border issues. Doval responded positively to the invitation and said that he could visit after immediate issues are resolved successfully.

Disengagement Proposal Rejected

The Indian Express reported that around the time of Wang’s visit, China had sent a proposal for disengagement of troops from Patrolling Point 15 in the Hot Springs area of eastern Ladakh.

“Government sources said China proposed that Indian troops, who have been in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Chinese troops at PP 15 for almost two years now, move back to the Karam Singh Post between PP 16 and PP 17. China said it would withdraw its troops just behind the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as claimed by India in that region,” the newspaper reported.

The proposal was rejected since the Chinese claim line and India’s understanding of the LAC almost intersect at PP 15. If India were to accept the proposal, it would mean that while Chinese troops would move back very little, Indian troops would have to withdraw several kilometres even behind PP 16 which has never been claimed by China earlier.

State of India-China relations

Thousands of Indian troops remain deployed along India’s remote border with China in the Himalayan snow deserts of Ladakh, where hand-to-hand fighting broke out in June 2020.

At least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed during a clash in Ladakh’s Galwan valley – the first deadly encounter between the nuclear-armed neighbours in decades.

Their undemarcated 3,500-km-long frontier has remained largely peaceful since a border war in 1962, and both countries still claim vast swathes of each other’s territory.

After the Galwan clash, senior officers from both militaries held more than a dozen rounds of talks to de-escalate the standoff in Ladakh but progress has been limited.

Last February, after multiple military parleys, Indian and Chinese troops completed a pullout from a lake area in Ladakh. Days later, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar agreed to setup a hotline.

There has been little progress for disengagement from the Depsang Plains in north Ladakh. The Chinese have denied Indian troops access to their traditional patrolling points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 but the Chinese have moved machinery for roadbuilding behind these patrolling points.

A total of 15 rounds of talks has been held at the level of corp commanders between the two armies on disengagement from various parts of Ladakh. But progress has been slow.

Beijing has repeatedly said that border standoff does not represent the entirety of China-India relations, while New Delhi has maintained that peace along the frontier is essential for the two countries to work together.

New Delhi has numerous other concerns regarding China’s activities in almost all of India’s neighbours.

Aside from the tensions in the Himalayas, India’s mistrust stems from Beijing’s support of old foe Pakistan, the competition for influence in Nepal, and concern over China’s economic clout in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

Chinese Strategy

Unsettling signal from China show that it intends to continue the ‘string of pearls’ strategy to encircle India in South Asia.

By engaging with Afghanistan’s ruthless regime for rare earth and minerals, China is trying to use a vacuum where India has almost no leverage. Sri Lanka and Nepal’s infrastructure investments aim to cut India’s regional standing. Deep seaports in Myanmar extend that envelope. This is a strategy of boxing India in and flies in the face of Wang Yi’s assertion during his meetings in Delhi that China does not seek a unipolar Asia.

Defence Spending

The standoff in the high Himalayas is a costly undertaking. India is not walking the talk with its defence spending. China increased its defence budget by 7.1 per cent to $230 billion in 2022. It is three times that of India’s $70 billion in 2022.

Without spending at the very least three per cent of her GDP on defence, India will find it increasingly difficult to match China’s assertiveness on the borders.

Economic Lever

In the two years of the standoff, India’s trade deficit is a staggering $103 billion in China’s favour. The quality of this trade deficit is also startling. India exports primarily iron ore, aluminium, and agricultural commodities while importing finished products across consumer and industrial categories, like electronics, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, and infrastructure items from Beijing.

The trade lever is firmly in China’s hands. Apart from banning a few apps, Narendra Modi’s government has been unable to bring structural reforms over two years to dent this relationship.

Investment and App Bans

China is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade expanding exponentially since the turn of the century to $95.02 billion in 2021/22. Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises, operate in India, including electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market.

Since 2020, however, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players in Asia’s third largest economy by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

The Indian government had previously held up investments worth billions from Beijing, but last week said that approvals for 66 proposals from neighbouring countries – including China – totalling $1.79 billion had been approved.

In February, India also blocked access to dozens of Chinese apps over security concerns, increasing the tally of such restricted mobile apps to more than 300.

Comments

The India-China relationship has been at its lowest point in three decades since Beijing tore up a decade’s worth of agreements for maintaining peace and tranquility at the border and sent troops into India’s side of the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh in 2020.

If the Chinese intention was to gauge if India was ready to normalise ties, then the visit was structured inauspiciously. Wang, who is also a state councillor, arrived via Islamabad and Kabul. In Pakistan, he aired pro-Pakistan views on Kashmir at the foreign ministers’ conference of Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). In Afghanistan, he engaged the globally-slighted Taliban regime as it regresses to its old behaviour. A cold reception in New Delhi was thus expected. South Block judged correctly that the China’s obduracy required a riposte as the China’s need for de-escalation was now greater than India’s.

In 2017, China had similarly shown flexibility to resolve the Doklam stand-off after the BRICS meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Hamburg. Subsequently, not only China has dug deeper at positions near Doklam but showed no hesitation in widening the confrontation three years later in Ladakh.

The onus of normalisation of ties lies with Beijing. The presence of a large number of troops, in contravention of agreements, denotes an abnormality and is a clear signal that border disengagement and de-escalation remain non-negotiable for any restoration of ties.

No breakthrough or major announcement came out of Beijing’s outreach. The conversation in the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times veered around the need for New Delhi to change its attitude and play down the border clashes for a positive thrust, given the two neighbours’ relations with Russia, a line taken by Wang Yi himself. Both Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval, though, responded to the call for taking a ‘long-term view’ by sticking to the stance that the overall development of ties was intrinsically linked to resolution of the border issues.

The new escalatory cycle now can be broken. India’s neutrality over Ukraine addresses Chinese worry about Indian proximity to the United States, after the Quad meetings were raised to the summit level. But China’s tactical moves must not be mistaken for a strategic shift. India will continue to be seen as a potential rival.

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In his nearly three-hour “candid” talks with visiting Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, external affairs minister S Jaishankar asserted that restoration of normalcy in ties will require restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

Wang flew into Delhi from Kabul on 24 March evening in an unannounced trip in the first highest-level visit to India by a Chinese leader after the border standoff in eastern Ladakh erupted nearly two years ago.

At a media briefing shortly after his talks with Wang, Jaishankar said: “If we are both committed to improving our ties then this commitment must find full expression in the ongoing disengagement talks.”

Describing the current situation as a “work in progress”, he also said that relations between India and China have been “disturbed” as a result of the Chinese actions in April 2020.

“So long there are very large deployments, border situation is not normal. We still have ongoing friction areas, have made progress in resolving some friction areas including Pangong Tso. Our discussion today was how to take this forward,” he said.

The border issue is understood to have figured prominently in the meeting between Wang and Doval too. Both sides agreed on the importance of early and complete disengagement in remaining areas to allow bilateral ties to take their natural course. They also stressed the need to continue positive interactions at diplomatic,military levels for restoration of peace, sources said.

Wang also met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who pressed insisted on an early and complete disengagement of troops in Ladakh, a source with knowledge of the discussions said. “The continuation of the present situation is not in our mutual interest,” the source quoted Doval as telling Wang.

“Restoration of peace and tranquillity will help build mutual trust and create enabling environment for progress in relations,” Doval added.

New Delhi has made it abundantly clear that it cannot be “business as usual” with China until the border stand-off is resolved on mutually acceptable terms.

‘Allow Indian students to return’

Jaishankar also raised with his Chinese counterpart the issue of return of Indian students to China to resume their studies and hoped that Beijing will adopt a “non-discriminatory approach” on it.

“I took up strongly the predicament of Indian students studying in China who have not been allowed to return, citing Covid restrictions. We hope that China will take a non-discriminatory approach since it involves the future of so many young people,” Jaishankar said.

“Minister Wang Yi assured me that he would speak to the relevant authorities on his return on this matter. He also recognised the particular concerns that medical students have in this difficult situation,” he said.

A large number of Indian students had come back to India when China has closed down all universities following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. China had restricted travel by suspending visa and residence permits from March 27, 2020, in view of the pandemic.

‘There should be immediate ceasefire in Ukraine’

The two ministers agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire and a return to the path of diplomacy and dialogue to defuse the war in Ukraine.

“Wang Yi presented the Chinese understanding, the Chinese view of the situation developed there and the developments pertaining to it, and I presented the Indian view,” Jaishankar said.

The external affairs minister said both sides discussed their respective approaches and perspectives and agreed that diplomacy and dialogue must be the priority.

“I think, the Indian view, many of you may have heard me speak about it yesterday in Parliament as well. And obviously, what he said was his view and what I said was my view, but where we had a common element was that both of us agreed on the importance of an immediate ceasefire as well as a return to diplomacy and dialogue,” he said.

The external affairs minister said in Parliament on 24 March that India’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been “steadfast and consistent” and that it wants resolution of the conflict through talks.

India has not criticised Russia yet for its invasion of Ukraine and also abstained from voting at the UN platforms in condemning the Russian attack.

China has close ties with Russia and it has been giving signals about its willingness to assist Moscow in offsetting the impact of economic sanctions announced by the US and other Western countries following the Russian attack on Ukraine.

Wang’s Kashmir remarks at OIC meet discussed

The external affairs minister said that the remark made by Chinese foreign minister at the OIC meet, which had sparked a strong response from New Delhi, featured in their talks.

Jaishankar said he conveyed to Wang that India hopes that China would follow an independent policy in respect to New Delhi and will not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries.

“Did the issue of what Minister Wang Yi said at the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) Conference come up? Yes, it did. I referred to it. I explained to him, why we found that statement objectionable. It was a subject discussed at some length. There was a larger context as well,” Jaishankar told reporters.

“I conveyed that we hope that China would follow an independent policy in respect of India and not allow its policies to be influenced by other countries and other relationships,” said Jaishankar.

3,500 km long border, varied perceptions

The India-China border, stretching from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh, is largely undemarcated. Both sides claim vast swathes of each other’s territory, primarily due to differences in perception about the exact location of the Line of Actual Control.

The border remained largely peaceful since the war of 1962, barring occasional skirmishes- until June 2020.

A violent clash erupted over a Chinese incursion into Indian territory and preventing Indian border patrols. 20 Indian soldiers were martyred when PLA troops attacked with hand-held weapons. Several reports said the Chinese side also suffered at least 35 casualties. However it has never been officially acknowledged by China.

Both sides deployed large number of troops and heavy weaponry in the region following the Galwan clash. The resulting stand-off has not been fully resolved, even after 15 rounds of military-level talks.

Growing trade, and the imbalance

Trade remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour. India’s trade deficit with China is the largest it has with any county, and the imbalance has been steadily widening.

The exports from India to China have increased from $10.17 billion in 2016-17 to $21.19 billion in 2020-21. The imports from China have increased from $61.28 billion to $65.21 billion during the same period.

More than 100 Chinese companies, including state-owned enterprises and electronics manufacturers that have come to dominate the country’s mobile phone market, operate in India.

Since the Galwan clash of 2020, New Delhi has tightened the screws on Chinese players by increasing scrutiny of investments or imports and banning some mobile apps.

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