Russian Nuclear Operations Part 2
Assuming the missile has left the silo and is on the way to the target, the questions arise where it will strike and what would be the damage done. The target and the yield will be the focus of this article.
The ability to select the yield according to the target is a big advantage and will be fully utilized by the planners/commanders of the Strategic Rocket Forces.
Given below are the possible targets which the rocket forces might choose to target.
Destinations :
1. Kiev
2. Odessa
3. Forward areas of Donetsk
4. Black Sea
5. Kherson
The yield would vary according to the targets enumerated above.
Kyiv : This target might have been on the list since days before the starting of the war. In order to eliminate the political leadership and top military commanders, Russia might use a more precise weapon of choice. The civilian losses will be extremely high if such an option is exercised. The yield of the device used for this might be under 100KT as they would be primarily targeting the leadership(civil and military) which is stationed underground.
Odessa : Russia might choose to go after the port in Odessa to permanently cripple Ukrainian exports. To go through with this, they might employ a device under 50KT.
Forward Areas of Donetsk : They might utilize the warheads with yield less than 25 KT to stop the advances of the Ukrainian army. They might use several of them on the battlefield. This would permanently deny the Ukrainians advance through the region.
Black Sea : The target which would most likely be hit would be No. 4 Black Sea. A detonation above the black sea would serve three purposes : i) Send a signal to all the parties to back out from Southern Ukraine and stall the counter offensive ii) Limit the amount of backlash and condemnation Russia will receive from the international community. iii) A detonation above the Sea will drastically limit the fallout and since wind might pick up towards the Russian side, they would be much safer. In this case, they might go ahead with a device with a yield exceeding 100KT, possibly 250KT to send a bigger message.
Kherson : This region might be of interest to the ground forces of both sides. They have been fighting fierce battles for the past many weeks. To cut off the Ukrainian reinforcements and the front line troops and to keep the artillery out of the reach of the rest of the region, they might target Ukrainian military detachments with smaller 10-15KT warheads in several locations.
Impact and Aftermath
A detonation over the Black Sea will have the least amount of damage to human life and practically no fallout. Russia might get chided by the international community and even the neutral parties will raise alarm and criticize the action. But that would be it. It will serve to scare Ukraine and NATO and will stop the counter offensive. Russia will be able to hold out much longer. The Russian military might be sent further to consolidate the gains and take over the vacated territories. Peace negotiations will start with terms favorable to Russia.
However, employing this device over Kyiv would entail a much more difficult situation for all. The Russians might have defeated Ukraine completely but winning the war will be pyrrhic. Civilian casualties would be very high. The high radiation fields will make rescue operations almost impossible.
This act will serve to distance all close allies of Russia and will further isolate Russia. Western nuclear forces would be ready for further escalation and prepare for pre-emptive strikes on Russian positions. There might be a possibility of severing Kaliningrad from the rest of Russia. Extensive conventional strikes by Western air forces would render Russian air defence ineffective and they will proceed to neutralize Russian nuclear platforms and command centres, the only option would be a fully fledged World War or Nuclear War.
A strike on Odessa would earn Russia the ire of the entire world. It will not only cripple Ukraine’s ability to export its produce but complicate issues like food security. This will serve to isolate Russia from Africa, Turkey and even China. Only conventional means would be used by Ukraine to deploy even more advanced western weaponry on Russians positions in Ukraine. NATO presence could be seen in Ukraine after such a strike in order to deter further nuclear strikes. Crimea would be cut off from the Russian Federation. As per the escalation vortex, cyber and space options will be employed by the West but they might not retaliate in a nuclear way. Crippling attacks on the Central government, military services and nuclear command and control centres would limit Russia’s options. The Russian economy would be in a complete disarray without the possibility of ever recovering.
Battlefield engagements on the front lines in Donetsk and Kherson will stop the advance of Ukrainian troops. It would inflict major military losses on Ukraine. The fallout would be immense and the region will become inhabitable for many centuries to come. Russian troops might advance in the fields of high radiation with specialized equipment and platforms. They would not be able to consolidate the gains due to radiation. This action will cause immediate cessation of all hostilities but Russia will suffer from the fallout, additional sanctions and a non-existent economy. Ukraine will have to give up the claim to its territories in the East and South. Retaliation will not stop there, the Russian Navy will face the brunt and lose its entire Black Sea fleet along with several submarines. Strong disapproval would be forthcoming from countries which may be neutral (China) in the form of sanctions from them as well.
In the end, the desired result is the de-escalation of the situation. Dialogue should be the way forward.
Assessment and Possibilities
In view of the foregoing, what are the possibilities about the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
In an interview with 60 Minutes, US President Joe Biden was asked what he would say to Russian President Vladimir Putin if he considered using tactical nuclear weapons. His response was “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t. It would change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.” In a televised address to the Russian people on September 21, Putin explicitly raised the specter of a nuclear conflict by saying, “Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them.”
The majority of the experts believe that the possibility that Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon is low but is growing. As Putin runs out of options and feels worried about losing the war, the threat of nuclear escalation rises.
Some of them assessed that such an event is quite probable as a means of sending the Ukrainians a signal they should stop fighting and start talking, if not capitulate entirely. The experts assessed that the only reason Putin would take such a drastic action would be to force Kyiv to stop fighting and agree to Russian conditions.
However, some of the experts believed such a possibility remains highly improbable. According to them, “the Russian leadership has very little to gain from a military standpoint and everything to lose with regards to strategic consequences.”
In addition, the experts view such a possibility as a complete sea change in the course of the war. It would embolden the Ukrainian population even more, potentially shift opinions in Russia itself, and lead the international community into uncharted territory regarding the proper response. Some of the experts argued that such a decision would drastically diminish, if not eliminate, the remaining support Russia has in Europe and the world.
Experts believe that Putin is aware of the consequences of such a decision and is not deterred from using such a weapon. As one expert put it, Putin “is almost completely sure that the Western powers will never strike Russia with nukes because of the war in Ukraine,” and is therefore undeterred by a Western response.
