These two nations seem to be taking the fullest advantage of the world’s preoccupation with Covid-19 to flex military muscles and make much of the chaotic scenario to posture aggressively and seek to push their adversaries by asymmetric means.
China
Patient Zero, it now turns out was not found on 8 December 2019, but a month earlier. Media reports indicate Hwang Yangling, a researcher working on Bat Corona Viruses in the Wuhan Institute of Virology had contracted Covid in November 2019 itself. This was precisely where Dr Shi Zheng Li was working on splicing the SARS hook or S-protein on to the novel bat coronaviruses. It now turns out that no bats were ever sold in the infamous Wuhan wet markets. That put paid to the Zoonotic theory of this being a natural pandemic. The bats that caused it were in fact the horse-shoe bat species. There is no colony of horse-shoe bats within 600 kms of Wuhan!
These bats were specifically caught and brought to the Wuhan Instiute of Virology for research. The spike proteins of the natural chain of bat-borne coronavirus does not infect humans. Their coronaviruses were genetically re-engineered with the pathogenic S-spike protein from the SARS virus. American virologist Judy Milkovits’ asserts that this did not occur due to natural mutation but was deliberately engineered in the Wuhan Institute of Virology labs by splicing the SARS S-protein on to this virus. The Covid-19 strain was, thus, genetically engineered in the said laboratory.
The Zoonotic Theory of the natural origins of this pandemic in the Wuhan wet markets stands discredited. There is now another startling piece of news. On 21 January 2020, Dr Shi Zheng Li’s Wuhan laboratory had filed a use patent for Remdesivir – an American medicine for Ebola virus as a highly effective treatment for Covid-19. This patent could have only been filed after extensive testing for at least a month or at the very least 10 days, so by start of January 2020, the Chinese were quite clear about the nature of the coronavirus and had a fairly effective line of treatment in Remdesivir. Let us now correlate this timeline with China’s military activities and posturing in recent months.
Eastern Seaboard
The highly reputed American analyst Anthony Cordesman has put out a chronology of Chinese military provocations since December 2019/ January 2020. At that time, the Americans were concerned about China’s rising aggression in the South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan Strait and had carried out a series of Freedom of Navigation patrols in this region. China went out of the way to flex muscles in this region. It is important to note the chronology of events to discern underlying motivations and intentions and cause–effect connectivity.
Thus, the Chinese PLAN and PLAAF have displayed very high levels of aggression in the East and South China Sea, right from January 20 when the Covid-19 virus was flaring in Wuhan. Was this just defensive brow-beating or offensive intent to exploit a biological weapon release? In Remdesvir did they think they had a cure? They have mounted considerable coercive pressure on Taiwan by non-stop aggressive manoeuevres and combat drills. This appears to be China’s main strategic direction. It is being speculated that China may attempt to attack and capture Taiwan before the 100th Anniversary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2021. These non-stop exercises are, perhaps, designed to desensitize the target and gain surprise. It is rumoured that North Korea could, in tandem, attack South Korea and Pakistan could launch attacks in Jammu & Kashmir to divert global attention.
Pakistan in Collusion
What is cause for concern and consternation is that China is flexing its military muscles not just in the East China Sea, SCS and Taiwan, but also against India in Eastern Ladakh and North Sikkim. Ladakh is the only area where physical collusion can take place between Chinese and Pakistani forces. Pakistan has illegally ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China and invited Chinese troops into Gilgit-Baltistan for construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.
Pakistan was in a fairly subdued mood after the Indian Air Force (IAF) hit Balakot in retaliation to the Pulwama attack in February 2019. In fact, even when Article 370 was abrogated in August 2019, Pakistan did nothing – it was so cowed down. Suddenly it all changed from January 2020. Pakistan violated the ceasefire 1,300 times to push up terrorist infiltration. It mounted a series of terror attacks in Handwara and killed over 18 Indian security personnel in April 2020 alone. In May 2020, Pakistan attempted a repeat of Pulwama with a 40 kg IED. Fortunately, the plot was foiled.
What has emboldened Pakistan to so dramatically up the ante? Obviously, it has received some Chinese assurances of support. Meanwhile, Pakistan had pushed in some 5,000 to 6,000 Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorists into Afghanistan in a virtual endgame to annex Kabul with the help of the Taliban and proclaim itself the regional superpower which has defeated America.
Chinese Moves
China’s deliberate and continual ambiguity about the exact alignment of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) enables it to mount pressure on India at will, at a place and time of its choosing. The Chinese had established the Western Theatre Command (combining the erstwhile Military Regions of Chengdu and Lanzhou) on 1 February 2016. It’s first Theatre Commander Gen Zhou Zhongqui was one of its last senior commanders with combat experience in Vietnam (as a Captain). He was a Tibet specialist and had served non-stop for 20 years in this region. The Chinese had fully exploited the Peace & Tranquility Accord signed in 1993 to develop first class rail and road infrastructure in Tibet.
When India tried to catch up belatedly in the 21st Century, China began its process of dissuasion and disruption. So far the Indian deployment was purely defensive. With the raising of India’s 17 Strike Corps, it was developing the capability to hit back and retaliate by effective ripostes. We had sat back and let the Chinese build roads designed to support major offensives in Tibet. China, however, would do its best to disrupt our efforts at infrastructure creation. So from 2013 onwards, we began to see annual standoffs. The most serious ones came in Depsang in 2013; Chumar in 2014 and Doklam in 2017.
Current Events
In March 2020, there were a few cases of Covid-19 in Ladakh, including some amongst the Army ranks. As a result the annual formation-level exercises and operational alert were put off. These were timed to coincide with the PLA exercises in Tibet and Xinjiang around the same time. Even the Chinese exercises were postponed by a month. But by April, the Chinese sprang a surprise.
In hindsight it is quite clear that it was a deliberately planned move by the Western Theatre Command with the General Staff and higher ups in Beijing fully on board. Instead of escalating at one single point, the Chinese this year chose four – three in Ladakh and one in North Sikkim. A Chinese brigade exercising opposite Ladakh was suddenly moved into the Galwan Sector. To achieve surprise and deception, it came in heavy civil trucks which were bringing construction material for the two airfields that were opposite this sector.
Darbuk-Shyok–DBO Road
The Chinese brigade swiftly moved in some 3 kms beyond the LAC into the Indian side in the Galwan Sector – just opposite the area where the Shyok and Galwan rivers meet and 5 kms from LAC. In a virtual Kargil redux – they seized the heights that overlook the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) road axis and (in the Chinese perception) could pose a threat to the Aksai Chin Road (the Tibet-Xinjiang Highway NH-219). Surprisingly there was no ambiguity in the LAC alignment in this sector. A brigade (minus) built up on these heights with one of its battalions in reserve.
There are reports that the Chinese were concerned about a perceived threat from our Sub Sector North (SSN). Some 15 years back a Chinese military wargame had visualized a Division-sized Indian force along with mechanized elements that would strike into the Aksai Chin plateau. SSN has always been a vulnerable area for India. In 2007, India had commenced construction of two roads here:
Sosoma-Saser La Road. This is a summer road as Saser La is closed by heavy snow during winters and would need a tunnel to make it all-weather.
Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road. This 255 km road was constructed along the bed of the Shyok River valley. It runs parallel to the LAC up to Murgo. The junction of Shyok and Galwan rivers is only 5 kms from the LAC. The trouble began when the Indians began to construct a spur road into the Galwan river valley, which is technically Indian territory. This seems to have alarmed the Chinese.
The Chinese have come in brigade strength each in the Galwan Sector and north of Pangong Tso Lake in the 4 to 8 Fingers area. Lt Gen HS Panag (former Northern Army Commander ) feels that the Chinese occupied some 8.40 kms of our territory on the ridge that overlooks the road. Forward deployments so far are in tented camps (not really designed to fight) with big trucks parked alongside. But in depth areas they are building bunkers and have brought in artillery and mechanized forces. The third intrusion point in Ladakh is the Hotsprings Area (Chang Chenmo River valley) and Demchok.
Indian Response
India reacted swiftly and matched the Chinese man-to-man in the intrusion areas. There were media reports of deployment of medium artillery (Bofors) and an armoured regiment as a precaution. On 5 & 8 May 2020, serious scuffles broke out between the Indian and Chinese troops in the Pangong Tso Lake area and then in North Sikkim. However, so far, since 1967, there has been no major kinetic action on the Chinese front. There have only been fist-cuffs and scuffles.
This time the Chinese used iron rods, sticks and pelted stones, injuring some of our boys. Our boys retaliated in even measure. The Chinese even used sticks wound with barbed wire to cause bad injuries. However, that said, till date no shot has been fired from either side. The first shot fired will, however, radically alter the scenario.
Most of the forward deployments are for posturing purposes and as yet no indication has been received of troops digging in for a set-piece operation. Noting India’s very strong and proportionate response, the Chinese seemed to be having second thoughts. The Chinese ambassador to India, Sun Weidong made conciliatory statements about resolving the standoff peacefully. A number of meetings between local military commanders have failed to resolve the deadlock. On 6 June 2020, a meeting at corps commander level took place between Lt Gen Harinder Singh GOC 14 Corps and Maj Gen Liu Lin of the Xinjiang Military Command. Some preliminary signs of easing off were reported by the media in Galwan sector. However, both sides are sticking to their base positions. India wants restoration of status quo ante to Apr 20 positions. Both India and China have politely turned down US President Trump’s offer to mediate.
Analysis
So what are China’s possible aims and objectives for this very deliberately orchestrated flare up in Ladakh? These could be as follows:
• Grand Strategic Level. Warn India to desist from aligning too closely with America in the Second Cold War and taking advantage of China’s economic problems by hosting foreign industries moving out of China. Whip up nationalism internally and divert attention from growing internal and external unpopularity of the CCP regime.
• Theatre Level. Deter India from altering the existing status quo in J&K by any attempts to take Gilgit-Baltistan (through which the CPEC passes), POK or Aksai Chin (to cut the Chinese NH 219 linking Xinjiang with Tibet).
• Collusive Support to Pakistan. Bolster up Pakistan, which has been cowed down due to Balakot air strikes in which China did nothing and encourage it to destabilize J&K through Intensified asymmetric warfare. Instigate Nepal to turn hostile towards India.
India’s Options
There is no point in constructing a road axis that cannot be secured. This cannot be done with fist-cuffs and hand-to-hand scuffles. We must revert to standard military tactical procedures. Continued ambiguity is dangerous. So what are the options?
• Get the Chinese to withdraw through military/diplomatic level talks. We will have to clearly define our red lines. The Chinese strategic military doctrine calls for focusing on one single strategic direction at a time, ie, toward Taiwan and SCS, presently. Does china want a second front opened against India? I doubt that. China will go only so far to support Pakistan. The tail cannot be allowed to wag the dog.
Failing this, the options are:-
• Diplomacy. Get the Chinese to withdraw through a combination of military talks and diplomacy. Chinese strategic culture abhors a two front situation. We should exploit this aspect to get it to back down. China will not go beyond a point to support a pariah state like Pakistan. The tail cannot be allowed to wag the dog. Lt Gen level talks were left on 6 June.
• Kinetic Action. Kinetic military action to remove the threat to our vital road artery entails minimum a two division sized operation backed by heavy artillery, airpower and mechanized forces. This implies a local war of Kargil level intensity and more. If either side loses face it could escalate dangerously. Would India want that? For that matter, would China? The Chinese Army has not seen a shooting war in the last 42 years and is a peacetime army more used to posturing than live combat. Xi Jinping has pointedly asked the PLA to shed it’s peacetime sickness. It is not 1962 and the boot may well be on the other foot now. Armies that go to combat after a long gap do get their share of initial shocks.
• Counter Ingress. An indirect approach to avoid an escalatory counter-attack is to counter ingress in areas of ambiguity and gain bargaining chips for trade-offs of territory.
• Taiwan and Tibet Cards. If China continues to provoke and destabilize via Pakistan and Nepal (and now Maldives), India must play the Taiwan and Tibet cards. It takes two to tango. If China will not head our sensitivities in our own backyard there is no reason for India to be over concerned about China’s proclaimed red lines. We must firmly lay down ours and not be over-anxious to please.
• Alignment Architecture. Non-Alignment is not likely to work in Cold War 2.0. We will be forced to choose sides and seeing the way China is trying to hurt us, our choices are obvious. We may as well go the whole hog now. There is a vital need to upgrade and give teeth to our strategic partnerships with USA, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia. We must enhance the military technical component of this quasi alliance architecture. Quad is the way to go – an alignment of liberal democracies against an aggressive totalitarian state makes sense.
Chronology of Aggressive Behaviour in Taiwan Strait
Taiwan Straits
December 2019. China’s first wholly indigenous aircraft carrier Shandong (CV-17) was commissioned at the Sanya Naval Base in the SCS.
26 December 2019. Shandong sailed through the Taiwan Strait as part of its sea trials and weapons testing.
6 January 2020. In retaliation, US guided missile cruiser, USS Shellog sailed through Taiwan Strait.
11 Jan 2020. President Tsai was re- elected in Taiwan for a second term.
21 January 2020. Swarms of Chinese Su-30 and Y-8 aircrafts flew from the airfields in Southern China and passed through Bashi Channel in a major show of force.
23 January 2020. Another show of force exercise by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) in the Bashi Channel.
9-10 February 2020. Massive PLA Navy (PLAN) and PLAAF joint drills in waters south of Taiwan. This was timed to coincide with the visit of Taiwan’s President elect to the USA. J-11 fighters , Hong-6 bombers and KJ-500 AWACs were employed.
9 February 2020. Hong-6 bombers of PLAAF carried out long distance training flight. Crossed the centre line in the Taiwan Strait, forcing Taiwan to scramble F-16 jet fighters. Chinese bombers circumambulated Taiwan – flying from Bashi Channel into West Pacific Ocean and back via Miyako Strait.
12 February 2020. In response, the USAF flew B-52 bombers and C-130 Transport aircraft along Taiwan’s east coast.
13 February 2020. A US Navy guided missile cruiser sailed through Taiwan Strait.
17 February 2020. A US Navy P-8 maritime recce aircraft laser painted by a PLAN destroyer.
28 February 2020. PLAAF Hong-6 bomber again circumambulated Taiwan via Bashi Channel.
8-9 March 2020. The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) made a port visit to Da Nang in Vietnam. The crew was infected by coronavirus and the ship was rendered non-effective and forced into quarantine in Guam since 27 March 2020.
The US aircraft carrier US Ronald Reagan also affected by Covid-19 was forced into quarantine till 4 May 2020 at the Yokosaka Harbour in Japan.
16 March 2020. PLAAF mounted large scale night-time sorties over the sea south west of Taiwan.
26 March 2020. US Navy guided missile destroyer Mc Campbell transited Taiwan Strait.
2 April 2020. Chinese Navy Coast Guard ships sank a Vietnamese fishing boat near Paracel islands. Arrested two tugs that were sent for rescue.
6 April 2020. PLAN held major sea exercise in SCS.
10 April 2020. US Navy guided missile destroyer passed through Taiwan Strait.
21 April 2020. Worried about both of its aircraft carriers (USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Ronald Reagan) being out of action, the US Navy sent amphibious assault ship USS America with 13 F-35 VTOL fighters on board along with a guided missile cruiser and destroyer to the waters off Malaysia. Chinese survey ships and coast guard vessels were trying to hound a Malaysian oil exploration ship there.
22 April 2020. US guided missile destroyer sailed through Taiwan Strait.
28 April 2020. PLAF and PLAN began to track and posture against USS guided missile destroyer in SCS.
29 April 2020. Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning Battle Group (with two guided missile destroyers, two frigates and a support ship) sailed from Daren via East China Sea to Miyako Strait, south of Taiwan.
2 June 2020. China announced a major 70-day long amphibious landing exercise on Hainan Island in the South China Sea – warned shipping to stay clear of Bashi Strait.
