China has warned Taiwan that any attempt to seek independence “means war”. The warning came days after China stepped up its military activities and flew warplanes near the island on 23 January. It also came after new US President Joe Biden reaffirmed his commitment to Taiwan, and set out his stance in Asia.
China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state, with its own constitution, military, and elected leaders.
Taiwan’s status is a red line for Beijing, a part of what it regards as its unimpeachable territorial integrity. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has repeatedly said that it would use military force to prevent any move towards formal independence by Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province.
The US has called China’s latest warning “unfortunate”, adding that tensions did not need to lead to “anything like confrontation”.
What’s behind the China-Taiwan divide?
Analysts say Beijing is becoming increasingly concerned that Taiwan’s government is moving the island towards a formal declaration of independence and it wants to warn President Tsai Ing-wen against taking steps in that direction.
President Tsai, however, has repeatedly said that Taiwan is already a independent state, making any formal declaration unnecessary.
On 28 January, Chinese defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian defended the recent military activities near Taiwan, saying they were “necessary actions to address the current security situation in the Taiwan Strait and to safeguard national sovereignty and security”.
“They are a solemn response to external interference and provocations by ‘Taiwan independence’ forces,” he added. “We warn those ‘Taiwan independence’ elements – those who play with fire will burn themselves, and Taiwan independence means war.”
China and Taiwan: The Basics
China and Taiwan have had separate governments since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Beijing has long tried to limit Taiwan’s international activities and both have vied for influence in the Pacific region. Tensions have increased in recent years and Beijing has not ruled out the use of force to take the island back.
Although Taiwan is officially recognised by only a handful of nations, its democratically elected government has strong commercial and informal links with many countries.
Like most nations, the US has no official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but a US law does require it to provide the island with the means to defend itself.
The new US administration is expected to maintain pressure on China over a wide range of issues including human rights, trade disputes, Hong Kong and Taiwan, amid the deteriorating relationship between the two powers.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, meanwhile, said China should “not underestimate” the island’s determination to defend its sovereignty and uphold freedom and democracy.
What is the history and source of this tension?
The first known settlers in Taiwan are Austronesian tribal people thought to have come from modern day southern China. The island first appears in Chinese records in AD239, when China sent an expeditionary force to explore – a fact Beijing uses to back its territorial claim. After a brief spell as a Dutch colony (1624-1661) Taiwan was administered by China’s Qing dynasty from 1683 to 1895.
From the 17th Century, significant numbers of migrants started arriving from China, often fleeing turmoil or hardship. Most were Hoklo Chinese from Fujian (Fukien) province or Hakka Chinese, largely from Guangdong. The descendants of these two migrations now make up by far the largest population group.
In 1895, following Japan’s victory in the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing government had to cede Taiwan to Japan. After World War Two, the Republic of China – one of the victors – began ruling Taiwan with the consent of its allies the US and UK, after Japan surrendered and relinquished control of territory it had taken from China.
However in the next few years, a civil war broke out in China and the leader at the time Chiang Kai-shek’s troops were beaten back by the Communist armies under Mao Zedong.
Chiang and the remnants of his Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan in 1949. This group, referred to as Mainland Chinese and then making up 1.5mn people, dominated Taiwan’s politics for many years, even though they only account for 14% of the population.
Having inherited an effective dictatorship, facing resistance from local people resentful of authoritarian rule, and under pressure from a growing democracy movement, Chiang’s son, Chiang Ching-kuo, began allowing a process of democratisation, which eventually led to the 2000 election of the island’s first non-KMT president, Chen Shui-bian.
Where are things at now?
Relations between China and Taiwan started improving in the 1980s. China put forward a formula, known as “one country, two systems”, under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy if it accepted Chinese reunification.
This system was established in Hong Kong to be used as something of a showcase to entice Taiwanese people back to the mainland but over the last year it has come under massive pressure with many analysts already questioning whether it still exists in the city.
In Taiwan, the offer was rejected, but Taipei did relax rules on visits to and investment in China. It also, in 1991, proclaimed the war with the People’s Republic of China on the mainland to be over.
There were also limited talks between the two sides’ unofficial representatives, though Beijing’s insistence that Taiwan’s Republic of China (ROC) government is illegitimate prevented government-to-government contact.
Alarm in Beijing
Beijing became alarmed in 2000, when Taiwan elected as president Chen Shui-bian, who had openly backed “independence”.
Chen was re-elected in 2004, prompting China to pass a so-called anti-secession law in 2005, stating China’s right to use “non-peaceful means” against Taiwan if it tried to “secede” from China.
In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou was elected president. He sought to improve relations with China, mainly through economic agreements.
In elections in January 2016, Tsai Ing-wen defeated Kuomintang party candidate Eric Chu. She leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards eventual official independence from China.
After Donald Trump won the 2016 US election, she spoke to the president-elect in a phone call, in what was a break with US policy set in 1979 when formal relations were cut. Despite the lack of formal relations, the US has an agreement to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons and has stressed any attack by China would cause “grave concern”.
Throughout 2018, China stepped up pressure on international companies forcing them to list Taiwan as a part of China on their websites and threatening to block them for doing business in China if they failed to comply.
In 2020, Tsai won a second term. By that time, Hong Kong had seen months of unrest with protesters demonstrating against the mainland’s increasing influence – a trend that had many in Taiwan worried Beijing would next set its eyes on Taiwan.
Later that year, China’s implementation of a national security law in Hong Kong was seen by many as a yet another sign that Beijing was becoming significantly more assertive in the region.
In the meantime, the US has been intensifying its outreach to Taiwan, reassuring Taipei of its continued support. In September 2020, Washington sent its highest-ranking politician to hold meetings on the island for decades. Beijing strongly criticised the meeting, warning “not to send any wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ elements to avoid severe damage to China-US relations”. During the controversial visit, China conducted a live-fire military exercise in the waterway that separates the island from the mainland.
President Joe Biden’s administration has said its commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid”. In the first few days of Biden’s presidency, Taiwan reported a “large incursion” by Chinese warplanes over two days. Taiwan’s air force moved to warn away the Chinese aircraft and deployed air defence missile systems to monitor the planes. Analysts said China was testing Biden’s support for Taiwan.
How much of an issue is independence in Taiwan?
While political progress has been slow, links between the two peoples and economies have grown sharply. Taiwanese companies have invested about $60bn in China, and up to one million Taiwanese now live there, many running Taiwanese factories.
Some Taiwanese worry their economy is now dependent on China. Others point out that closer business ties makes Chinese military action less likely, because of the cost to China’s own economy.
A controversial trade agreement sparked the “Sunflower Movement” in 2014 where students and activists occupied Taiwan’s parliament protesting against what they call China’s growing influence over Taiwan.
Some Taiwanese vocally support formal independence but most favour the middle ground. Officially, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) still favours eventual formal independence for Taiwan, while the KMT favours eventual re-unification. Opinion polls show only a small minority of Taiwanese support pursuing one or the other at the moment, with most preferring to stick with the current middle ground.
Yet more and more people say they feel Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Support for the DPP increased at the January 2016 election. This was partly because of dissatisfaction with the KMT’s handling of economic matters, from the wealth gap to high housing prices, and partly because of worries that Mr Ma’s administration was making Taiwan too dependent on Beijing.
Comments
The Biden’s administration needs to deter China from greater military coercion of Taiwan. The issue of Taiwan was a war and peace issue for China and a conflict was certainly possible, but both sides have a variety of incentives for the situation not to escalate.
The whole world needed to get serious about what a long term strategic competition between the US and China looked like.
