Scenario Generation Exercise – Part 2 – USA Ponders Over Options
30 Jun 2023. White House. Washington.
Director CIA, William Burns asked for a most urgent meeting with President Joe Biden on 30 Jun 23. Director CIA pointed out that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had stalled badly and they had taken heavy losses.
“But you already told me that”, the president interjected. The Director CIA took a deep breath. “But what I’m about to tell you is far worse, Mr President. In fact, it is explosive.” The president looked at him in surprise.
“Mr President, we have received very hard intelligence that China has preponed its time line for attack on Taiwan. We understand that this will go in now in Apr 2024.”
“What? The president was genuinely alarmed. “How do we know this?”
The Director CIA pursed his lips. How much could he reveal now, he wondered to himself. “Mr President, firstly, these are the clear battle indications:-
• The Chinese are rapidly reducing their holdings of US treasury bonds and securities. They are trying to cut down dollar holdings of their forex reserves. They have drawn lessons from how we simply seized 300 billion dollars worth of Russian forex reserves.
• They are building up their gold reserves.
• They are building up stocks of fuel and food. In fact, even during Covid, they refused to touch their food reserve stocks.
• They are building up their blood banks for military hospitals.
• The PLA has been carrying out increasingly more realistic exercises. They have already practised enforcing a blockade and gaining air and maritime control over and around Taiwan. Next year, they are planning a full-fledged joint island landing campaign exercise which could easily be turned to actuals.”
“All of that still doesn’t give us an exact timeline” said the president impatiently.
“Exactly, Mr President. I took this time to come to you because we wanted to be very certain. But we now have solid human intelligence that the CMC has decided to attack in Apr 2024.”
“How solid?” asked the president.
“I would say rock solid, Mr President.” The President got up in agitation.
“I say we call an immediate meeting with the Chairman JCS and Secretary of State.”
“Mr President, can’t we delay that a bit. It would endanger those very highly-placed sources who have risked their necks to share this.”
“You have given me this explosive bit of intelligence and expect me to sit on it? Talking about a two-front war is one thing, fighting a two-front war is quite another. No, we can’t afford this. We need to head this off preferably. We need to de-escalate right away. Go on a charm offensive,” the president said in considerable agitation.
Consequent to this exchange, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, made two efforts to resume talks with Beijing. This was followed up by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yallen, who went to Beijing and virtually pleaded with the Chinese not to get rid of their US treasury bonds. The way she kow-towed in Beijing had to be seen. Finally, the 100-year old former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, the author of the US–China reproachment in the 1970s, himself made a visit to Beijing to placate the Chinese leadership.
18 Aug 2023. On board the presidential plane of XI Jinping. Over Nanjing.
President Xi Jinping made a sudden unannounced visit to HQ Eastern Command Nanjing. On the return flight, Director of China’s State Security Bureau (SSB) boarded the plane. He asked for an absolutely one-on-one meeting with the president on the plane. He had some top-class intelligence to share. The president was surprised. Director SSB apologised, “I’m sorry Comrade President. What I have to tell you is so sensitive that I had to arrange this special flight, just in case your office was bugged.”
“What is it,” asked President Xi, nervously.
“Comrade President, we have been betrayed. Our plans to invade Taiwan have been leaked to the Americans.”
“Leaked? By whom?” the president said as his face clouded with anger.
“Comrade president, I don’t know how to say this but your defence minister and foreign minister, no less, have done this treachery.”
“Li Shang Fu and Quiqiang?” The President was amazed. Both were his proteges and he had promoted them out of turn.
“Are you certain?” he asked in shock.
“Sir, before we came to you, we checked and double-checked. This is the sad truth,” the Director SSB said. “It was Li Shang Fu who told the foreign minister and also shared this decision with the Chief and Deputy Chief of the Rocket Forces.”
“This Li Shang Fu!” the President got up from his seat in rage. He immediately sent for Gen Zhang, Vice Chief of CMC. “Put plans for Taiwan on hold immediately, till we clean up this stinking system,” he was almost spluttering in rage. The system was duly cleaned up. The department for Discipline Inspection went into overdrive. First the foreign minister and then the defence minister simply disappeared from public view. The foreign minister, had a torrid affair with a tele- journalist when he was ambassador in USA. He had even fathered a child with her. The defence minister was involved in huge corruption in defence deals and had been compromised. Terse announcements followed weeks of speculation. Both had been sacked.
30 Oct 2023. Top Secret Meeting CMC. Shenyang.
On 7 Oct 2023, the Hamas struck Israel viciously and achieved complete surprise. Some 1,200 Israeli citizens were killed, 3,700 wounded and 250 taken hostage. Israel mobilised 3,00,000 reservists and reacted in rage. They bombed Gaza to rubble and then launched a brutal ground invasion spearheaded by Merkava tanks. In eight weeks, over 11,000 Palestinians were killed and some 23,000 wounded. US despatched two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and rushed in arms and munitions to Israel. On 30 Oct, Xi Jinping called for another top-secret CMC meeting. This time it was held in Shenyang in northern China. The Director of SSB was in attendance to ensure there was no leakage.
The President began with the Director SSB, “Comrade have we managed to clean up our system?
“Comrade Xi, we have purged the system thoroughly. With your support, the traitors at the highest levels have been dealt with,” he said grimly.
Xi just nodded curtly. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxian. “Comrade Zhang, in view of the Israel-Hamas conflict, what is your assessment of the global situation? Does it create a good window of opportunity for our Taiwan contingency?”
Gen Zhang said, “Comrade President, the situation is excellent. America is bogged down now in two wars, not just one. They have sent in two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and a large number of their army reserves are locked up in Europe. Both conflicts will drag on for a long time. 12% of Israel’s population were orthodox Jews who are extreme and don’t want a two state solution. This will likely go up to 32%. Both these conflicts will drag on. I say it is now or never. The correlation of forces will never be as favourable.”
Xi turned to Gen Hi Wei Dong, “Comrade?” he said briefly.
Gen Hi cleared his throat and said, “I agree entirely with Gen Zhang. The Americans know that we know, they know. In this situation they will least expect us to go ahead with the plan. We now need a good deception plan. Let us mount a good charm offensive to soothe American nerves and go right ahead in Apr 2024. We won’t get a more favourable global situation.”
“So what will it be? A full-scale Amphibious invasion, seizing some middle-sized island or a Blockade?”
Gen Hi said promptly, “The Americans are expecting a full scale invasion. So let us start with a joint fire strike on key targets in Taiwan, follow it up with the PLA Air Force and PLA Navy establishing air and maritime superiority. Concurrently, we announce a maritime blockade and if necessary, enforce it for months, till the renegades in Taiwan cave in. Let us learn from Ukraine. Defence today is far more powerful that attack. So, we put in blockade and, thereby, put the onus of attack on the Americans. Let them attack first. It will be best for our information and cognitive warfare theme – “We showed restraint, it is the Americans who were the aggressors.” This will be far less risky option than full scale invasion.”
Adimiral Miao Hua said excitedly, “I do not agree. The Americans will use submarines to break the blockade. If we do not pre-emptively strike their bases in Guam and Okinawa, they will use them to bomb our fleet and our cities on the east coast. Let us not make the same mistake the Russians did at start of Ukraine war. Either we go full on or not at all. Let’s not go to war with mental brakes full on.”
Gen Hi countered, “The amphibious landing phase will be very risky. They will focus on destroying maximum number of our ships as we come in. With US and Taiwanese air power, cruise and anti-ship missiles and drones they could do very great damage. Besides, do we have the full lift capability for carrying four if not all six of our amphibious brigades to make at least two major beach-heads on the western coast of Taiwan?
Adm Miao interjected, “We have been practising with civilian roll–on roll–off (Ro- Ro) with floating causeways. We have 64 of these that have trained for such assaults. Besides we have the largest merchant marine in the world. Even USA cannot lift as many troops as we can.”
“But these huge ships will be sitting ducks for US and Taiwanese anti–ship and cruise missiles. We could win or lose all. Are we prepared to lose all? And don’t forget, even if you do land successfully, you still have to fight through a very mountainous country with lots of built up areas,” Gen Hi countered.
The palpable tension was showing on President Xi’s face. He took a sip of water.
“So, if we blockade Taiwan, how will the Americans react,” he asked.
Gen Zhang Youxia replied, “The US will react first with his nuclear submarines to torpedo our blockading ships. Then, he will surge forward two or three carrier battle groups, maybe even five.”
“Then what do we do?” asked the President.
Gen Zhang replied, “Comrade President, our guided missile Renhai-class cruisers and Luyang-class destroyers have good anti-submarine warfare and anti-air capabilities. Besides, we have our nuclear powered hunter-killer submarines. In addition, our entire PLA Air Force and Marine Aviation will be up in the air. To take care of US carrier battle groups, we will fire salvos of Dong Feng-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles of 2000 km range. The Americans can’t accept casualties. Even if they lose one or two carriers, their ardour to intervene will evaporate quickly.”
There was a total silence in the room. You could cut the air with a knife. President Xi licked his lips to moisten them. His mouth had gone dry with the tension.
“OK, let’s go for the blockade,” he said finally. “But, what will be our pretext?”
“Oh, that is easy, Comrade President. Firstly, presidential elections in Taiwan are on 13 Jan next year. We can always take advantage of any pro-Independence sentiments expressed in the presidential campaign. If that does not work, we have an opposition candidate in our pay – a good agent provocateur. Next year, in March, he will make an impassioned speech denouncing President of Taiwan, ask for her impeachment and demand full Independence now,” said the Director SSB.
President Xi nodded grimly, saying, “Well, if a pro-Independence candidate wins in January elections, we will have very real reason to go in. Comrades, we plan for a blockade next year in Apr 2024. It will give us much better escalation control and lower any risk of catastrophic failure. If the first phase of the blockade goes well, maybe we could still go for full-scale amphibious assault. Let us see how that goes. We have a golden opportunity with the US already bogged down on two fronts. We can’t afford to let this pass. Meanwhile, let’s go on a charm offensive for full scale deception. I’ll go for the summit meeting with President Biden in California as planned on 15 Nov and try to be as nice as possible.” He then concluded the meet.
