At the time of writing the Indian and Chinese armies were engaged in the excruciatingly slow and uncertain process of disengagement of forces from the face-off points in Ladakh. It would be idiotic to claim it as a great victory. After the 15 June clash, the issue has gone well beyond the border guarding paradigm of a few yards of territory here and there and preventing salami-slicing. We now have the far more serious threat of two Chinese mechanised divisions (4 Highland Motorised Division and 6 Mechanized Division) posturing menacingly and offensively on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and posing a direct threat to our vital communication artery to Sub Sector North (SSN) which we have constructed at such cost and effort.
Implications of 15 June Clash
With the very lethal Chinese attack of 15 June there has been a paradigm shift in India-China relations. In one fell stroke, China has trashed the Peace and Tranquility accords of 1993, 1996, 2005 and 2013. The entire concept of not using firearms within 2 kms of the LAC is now moribund. We have spent crores of rupees in constructing the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) road. We now have to defend it by tactically holding heights on either side of this vital artery. It can no longer be done by just patrolling under the benign aegis of the tranquility accords. China trashed them by killing our soldiers. Much as the foreign ministry mandarins may want it – we cannot go back to bonhomie and business as usual. The primary threat is from these two divisions offensively postured against us in Eastern Ladakh. These must go back to Xinjiang whence they came and restore status quo ante.
Roots of Rage
So why is China doing all this? Its actions stem from a deep sense of insecurity and a siege mentality. It perceives itself as being cornered from multiple directions – from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet and from the South China Sea (SCS). The US Navy has four carrier battle groups in the Pacific, two forward deployed now in the SCS to contest the Chinese amphibious exercise in the strategic Bashi strait. The USA is engaged in a trade war with China and has lined up the Quad alliance against it. The whole world rightly blames China for the Wuhan virus and pandemic. China is, therefore, lashing out in a very offensive manner designed to warn all comers not to mess with China.
Covid-19: A Preemptive Biological Warfare Strike?
So was Covid-19 Pandemic a proactive, premeditated and pre-emptive biological warfare strike by China to destabilize all its perceived tormentors? Was it a biological Pearl Harbour, which China has tried to exploit for economic and military gains? In hindsight , the scale and extent of the aggressive posturing by China’s armed forces from January along its entire periphery stretching from East China Sea, Taiwan to SCS and now Eastern Ladakh is cause for serious concern. It indicates a level of foreknowledge of the epidemic? The aggressive posturing along its entire periphery seems to be a defensive reaction.
War Zone Concept
China’s strategic culture talks of only one strategic direction at a given point in time. Currently, this is clearly towards China’s east coast, where its wealth creation and industrial centres are located. The War Zone Concept talks of China focusing all its military resources against one combat target country at a time. So why is it deliberately opting for a two front scenario? Maybe it thought that mere posturing would be enough to bring India to its knees.
India’ options
What then are India’s options? Must we go by the Chinese script? Will the game be played only by the Chinese rule book? Can China bully us year after year and refuse to settle the boundary dispute? 15 June was a significant turning point. India is trying to resolve the issue peacefully but we have a whole host of credible military options short of full scale war. The international climate could not be more favourable to us than it is now. The whole world has lined up against China. Most people do not know that right now India has the military advantage, in air power and mountain warfare ready formations deployed forward. We have the edge in combat experience and should not hesitate to safeguard our interests by limited kinetic action if push comes to shove. The problem is not safeguarding nibbles of territory here and there but the threatening posture of two Chinese mechanized divisions poised on our borders. This issue compares our military forces.
The Quad Dynamics
If push comes to shove what can the Quad do to help us? First of all, no one expects the Quad countries to put boots on the ground. India is big and strong enough to defend itself. What the Quad does is to tie down huge amounts of Chinese military resources in far away theatres and prevent their use against us. India is not a small country like the Philippines and China should be made to think twice before it tries to bully us.
