2020 – The Year That Was
Covid came as a curse upon mankind. It virtually destroyed the global economy, infected over 113 million people and left over 2 million dead. Was it a natural epidemic or a diabolical biological warfare exercise unleashed by China? That still remains to be established. What caused China’s overtly aggressive behaviour all along its periphery in the times of Covid? Was it a panic aggressive – defensive reaction to the mounting pressure by the Donald Trump administration in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang? It almost started a kinetic conflict in Eastern Ladakh and serious military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. So will the change of guard in Washington change the stance towards China? It may, for a time. But geo-strategic logic and the balance of power considerations are sure to ensure the emergence of a bi-partisan consensus in Washington. China is a rising power and a major threat to US primacy in the world and no amount of wishful thinking can alter that harsh geo-political reality.
After Galwan, India has been amply warned that a two-front war scenario could well emerge as an ominous reality. We simply cannot afford to neglect a long delayed military modernization any longer. We have to rebuild our Air Force and fill the gaping voids in our squadron strength. After the Galwan warning, if we still neglect our defence modernisation – it will only reflect a civilisational death wish. The Gandhian mind-set could well become an invitation for a civilizational disaster. Forget about matching up to China. We allowed even Pakistan to overtake us in critical military technologies like beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles. The replacement of our Soviet-era equipment should have happened in the 1990s. Unfortunately, our economy collapsed that year and delayed our military modernisation by two decades. The UPA-era refusal to modernise our military for another decade has created a most dangerous situation, which may well tempt our neighbours to press home their advantage. The trouble in Eastern Ladakh has come as a badly needed wake up call. This should give us an opportunity to rapidly fill all dangerous voids in our air power and firepower. The Armenia-Aizerbaijan conflict has driven home the urgent necessity to have armed UAVs. I cannot understand why we consigned them to a purely recce role for decades. How could we ignore military developments around the globe so blithely and for so long?
We have finally put a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) in place and are trying desperately to catch up. The availability of a CDS enabled us to make emergency purchases during the Eastern Ladakh crisis. We had to go in for emergent induction/purchases of Rafales, Su-30s and MiG-29s. We will urgently need to speed up induction of Tejas aircraft and possibly go in for the Su-35s. We urgently need BVRs and get out of the dog-fight era mindset. Balakote was adequate warning. The Army needs to mediumise the artillery and rapidly induct the Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS). We need two more aircraft carriers. We are still to see a full and proper reality check in New Delhi. The paltry increase in defence budget this year is stupefying. Does the Indian civilization have a death-wish? Why is it deliberately opening windows of vulnerability which could invite attack? The saving grace is that China’s main threat and strategic orientation is towards the east coast, Taiwan and the South China Sea, presently.
Which way will the Biden administration go is now is the critical question. Pure strategic logic calls for a bipartisan consensus in USA about the threat from China. However, it was baffling to see sections of the new administration supporting Khalistani terrorists to break up India. Ossified habits of thoughts in Washington are leading to calls for a reset of relations with Pakistan, which is now firmly in the Chinese camp. That defies logic. Maybe this confusion of the early days will soon resolve itself into coherent and logical strategic policy choices. The initial indications however are not reassuring. India will have to drastically speed up its progress towards autarky in weapons systems and real self-reliance that goes beyond the tokenism of assembling knocked-down kits. We will have to take serious steps to involve the private sector in a very major and decisive way in our defence manufacturing. We have to turn ourselves from the biggest importers of arms to a major exporter. Mercifully, this process has started at long last. We cannot afford to drift any longer.
A major problem area is the basal Gandhian mindset of non-violence and pacifism that has taken deep roots in our bureaucratic steel frame. That is the main stumbling block towards creating a realist mind-set in the Indian State. Since Nehruvian times, our foreign ministry has assumed the role of waging peace around the globe. That seemingly puts it at loggerheads with the armed forces designed to wage wars to defend India. The modern Westphalian system of nation states is premised upon the monopoly of violence. We are the sole state that has invented a false narrative premised upon non-violence and pacifism as the foundations of a modern state. That is a basic contradiction in terms. We have to sadly graduate from this contrived Gandhian narrative to the realism of Subhash Chandra Bose. It would be the most fitting tribute in his 125th birth anniversary year.
