With both the US and India set for national elections this year, there are speculations about the future of their bilateral relationship. Especially, during the Modi-Biden era, there has been a comprehensive multidimensional strengthening of the bilateral relationship, despite minor issues that could have halted the surge. There are several factors that account for the momentum in the US-India relations to persist irrespective of the occupants of the leadership positions.
In the case of India, there are strong projections for the Prime Minister Modi to occupy the office again. In India, the general elections are scheduled to be conducted in several phases between 19 April-1 June, 2024. Due to the enormity of the voter population, India’s elections will be held in phases to ensure 970 million voters can cast their votes in a secure environment. In India, Prime Minister Modi is seeking a successive third term. The opposition coalition, INDI alliance, has faced significant turmoil even before it could take off. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party attempted the Bharat jodo yatra, he is able to gather crowds but failed to project himself as a strong prime minister candidate. On the other hand, the incumbent prime minister with the country-wide infrastructure development, scientific advancements, economic restructuring with social development programs, is most likely assured victory in the elections.
The US is due for presidential elections in November 2024. In the US, it is a lengthy stretched process, over a period of two years, with several rounds of debates and elections, even within the parties themselves, for the selection of the presidential candidate. Towards the 2024 elections, after the Super Tuesday, President Trump has emerged as the Republican candidate, and President Biden is a leading Democrat candidate for the upcoming Presidential elections. Nonetheless, no matter who occupies the office in the US, its relationship with India stands on a solid foundation, and there has been bipartisan support for India.
There are several factors, over couple of decades, that catapulted the current momentum for a multidimensional strategic partnership.
Shifting of Nuclear Goal Posts
The upward swing in the US-India relations can be traced to the Clinton administration. Especially, to the Strobe Talbott-Jaswant Singh talkathon, fourteen rounds of talks between 1998-2000, launched in the immediate aftermath of India’s nuclear tests and the resultant sanctions. This unprecedented dialogue led to mutual understanding of the geopolitical concerns of India along with the circumstances caused the “shifting of the nuclear goal posts”. Prior to the talks, Clinton was adamant on India to ‘Cap, rollback and eliminate.’ Later, in 1999, during the Kargil War, he came forth in outright support of India against Pakistan. This was in “stark contrast to the 1971 war, when Washington had situated its nuclear submarines in support of Pakistan.”
Subsequently, in March 2000, Clinton during his state visit and addressing India’s Parliament, affirmed that, “I say this with great respect. Only India can determine its interests.” His visit marked the first visit of a US President in 17 years and “institutionalized a high-level, multi-tiered and multi-faceted dialogue with India.”
Nuclear Agreement
His successor President Bush confronted with the post 9-11 challenges, recognized the dire urgency to engage India in the global counterterrorism and nonproliferation efforts. Bush coined the term ‘Strategic Partnership,’ with India, based on reciprocal obligations to deal with the “multitudinous and complex threats of the post 9/11 world.” Viewed narrowly, in the Cold War perspective, the strategic partnership was mistaken as an alliance to maintain the Asian geopolitical balance of power, specifically directed against China. On the contrary, the Bush Administration wanted to enlist India’s support at a global level for the shaping of the future world order.
Alongside, the landmark US-India collaborative measures, the High Technology Cooperation Group (HTCG) and the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) overcame the nuclear disjuncture, hitherto plaguing the US-India relationship. This enabled the Bush Administration to uproot the nuclear barriers, and the offer of the civilian nuclear technologies based on reciprocal obligations. This helped US-India overcome decades of nuclear estrangement and launch partnership based on strategic interests. In 2010, Obama supported India’s seat in the UNSC as a permanent member recognizing it as ‘indispensable’ partner for the coming century.” Over successive administrations, this created space for the US-India relationship to emerge as “one of equal partners and equal strategic interest.” Thus, in the last couple of decades, this change in approach towards India, can be greatly attributed to the change in Washington’s approach to restructure its own security framework- from region focused to global level.
Modi Factor
This restructuring aligns with Modi’s approach to (re)launch India at the global level to be recognized as a global stakeholder. Towards this, Modi based on his diplomatic craftsmanship with two Democrat and a Republican Presidents, yet three different personas (from Obama to Trump and now, Biden) ignited multi-sectoral comprehensive strategic partnership.
Initially, the Obama Administration seemed to be proceeding cautiously with the so-called Hindu nationalist Modi regime. However, subsequently, in an unprecedented move, recognized India as a “Major Defense Partner.” In 2016, Obama and Modi signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMA), that allowed the militaries of both countries to use each other’s facilities for refueling and strategic coordination. Especially for India, it was a significant development, as it enhanced India’s maritime prowess and navigation in Indian Ocean, for humanitarian and strategic purposes.
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In fact, the successive administration, headed by Trump, a Republican, exhibited ‘bromance’ with Modi. This was evident in the Howdy Modi event (Sept 2019), at the NRG stadium (Houston), a joint gathering of diverse groups of officials, businesses, along with gathering of 50,000 Indian diaspora. On the one hand, Trump focused on economic gains, removed India from special trade status from the preferential trade, called the Generalized System of Preferences. Yet, on the other hand, there was significant defense cooperation agreements along with the launching of the Tiger Triumph exercises with New Delhi. The Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) agreement granted India access to the advanced communication technology and real time information sharing between the US and India defense agencies. Similarly, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) enabled geospatial information sharing, critical for India to navigate the maritime domain, marks significant strategic cooperation.
Thus, during 2016-2020, the LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA sealed the foundational core for the US-India strategic defense partnership enabling India to obtain critical advanced technologies to strengthen its defense communications, navigation and targeting capabilities.
Modi-Biden
In 2020, with the onset of the Biden Presidency, there were speculations that the ‘bromance’ between US-India would be elusive. Nevertheless, the Biden Administration, moving beyond the narrow geopolitical confines, launched multi-sectoral cooperation with India. Probably because Biden, as former US Secretary of State during the Obama Administration, was aware of the necessity to harness India’s engagement in Washington’s global security framework, beyond the confines of South Asia. This aligned with the India’s strategic vision under the Modi regime as well, as evident in intense collaboration in the varied sectors – ranging from defence (joint production of F414 jet engines), critical emerging technology (iCET,) space exploration (NISAR), cyberspace, semiconductor supply chain, AI and quantum technologies, and 5G/6G telecommunications. Modi and Biden, besides their intense bilateral dialogue, have proactively engaged in multiple triangular and multilateral fora, such as the QUAD, I2U2, G20, etc.
‘Strategic Convergence’ beyond China
Currently, there is a persistent hyper-linkage with the ‘counter-China’ factor. Regardless to say, India’s and the US apprehensions of China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean have contributed to the “strategic convergence” and the urgency “to counter China in the Indo-Pacific Region.” This is visible in the revival of the QUAD, and other Indo-Pacific arrangements. Yet, it is not restricted to this factor alone. Modi is focused on establishing India’s military prowess as well as strategic positioning. This may deter China from military overtures, yet, India will be ready to successfully thwart such attempts, in case the situation arises.
US is clearly aware that India under Modi’s astute leadership, a strong India will handle the China challenge. So, definitely there is a ‘strategic convergence’ of interests, but, this is not a conditional relationship, nor exclusively setting up India to counter China. As Washington is aware that New Delhi will uphold its strategic autonomy and not take dictates regarding its foreign or domestic issues.
It is crucial to overcome the persistent China ‘hangover.’ China is a lingering challenge to both India and the US, but to view their relationship in the narrow confines of the China factor is erroneous. Rather the engagement of India should be viewed as an attempt by Washington to restructuring its foreign and security policy at the global level. Especially, in view of the growing focus on the strategic issues related to Indo-Pacific or the entire Indian Ocean region (covering the Middle East) as well as non-military challenges related to climate change, health, quantum computing, space, clean energy, AI and so on.
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Due to intense dialogue, since 1998, both official and informal (including policy community, Indian diaspora etc.) there is a greater multi-level, multi-dimensional sense of security partnership established between the two countries. This is the reason that regardless of the occupants of the political office, this symbiotic relationship will strengthen. There is possibility that at times, some issue(s) may emerge to create concerns regarding the internal or external issues related to India. For instance, US representatives expressed concerns on the alleged attacks on the Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, and the recent arrest of the Delhi Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal. There may be several reasons for the concerns being raised by Washington. India has handled these charges effectively.
However, besides political relations, multiple channels of communication and dialogue have been established that there may be some wavering but it will be difficult to derail the momentum. Moreover, the US recognizes India’s strategic autonomy and has on several occasions has recognized India’s exceptional stand on certain issues. For example, in 2014, the Obama Administration had categorically warned countries to prohibit trade with Iran. Yet, US realized India’s reliance on oil import from Iran was crucial for the latter’s energy security and simply advised to adhere to global obligations as well.
Thus, to conclude, India-US is a dynamic multidimensional strategic partnership, in several vital areas of defence, space, climate change, critical technologies. Regardless of the incumbents’ post 2024 elections, the US-India relations will forge ahead. As President Biden enthusiastically acknowledged that the US-India relationship, “is among the most consequential in the world, that is stronger, closer, and more dynamic than any time in history.”
