Chinese Influence Operation Myanmar Spur India Into Action
Foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Army chief Gen MM Naravane visited to Myanmar on 5-6 October to engage Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders. The timing of the visit was decided to drill through India’s commitment to the Neighbourhood First policy amid rising tensions with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
What probably influenced both Harsh Vardhan Shringla and Gen MM Naravane most was the spectre of “Paukphaw”, the China-Myanmar friendship that President Xi Jinping had underscored during his state visit in January.
The major outcome of the meeting included a project agreement for the upgrading of agricultural mechanization sub-station, virtual inauguration of the Centre for Excellence in Software Development and Training, Myitkyina and opening of a liaison office in Nay Pyi Taw by Shringla, G20 debt service and quota on pulses.
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India also announced a grant of $2 million for the construction of the border haat bridge at Byanyu/Sarsichauk to provide increased economic connectivity between Mizoram and Myanmar.
In addition to proposing the construction of a $6 billion petroleum refinery near Yangon, India discussed progress in ongoing infrastructure projects, including the Trilateral Highway, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the Sittwe port project. It also presented Myanmar with 3,000 vials of the antiviral Remdesivir, symbolic of the support India is extending to Myanmar in its efforts to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sittwe Port
Earlier, during virtual foreign office consultations between the two countries, on 1 October, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said, “With respect to the 69 bridges on the Trilateral Highway, I am happy to inform you that we will soon be moving forward with the tendering process.”
Port at Sittwe and IWT Terminals in Sittwe and Paletwa have been constructed with India’s grant assistance in May 2017 at a cost of about $78 million.
Sittwe is part of India-built mega Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The project when completed, will improve connectivity with Myanmar, by creating a transport corridor for shipment of cargo from the eastern ports of India to Myanmar as well as to the North-Eaastern region of India via Myanmar.
Security Aspects
Shringla and Gen Naravane called on Myanmar’s State Counsellor and de facto Head of Government, Aung San Suu Kyi, on 5 October. They also had a meeting with Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. During the visit, the foreign secretary and the Army chief conveyed that India was committed to help the Myanmar Army in capacity building apart from enhancing cooperation to address mutual security concerns.
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With several insurgent organizations operating in northeast India having bases in Myanmar, New Delhi has been maintaining close security cooperation with the neighbouring country.
The two nations in July 2019 inked a pact to step up bilateral defence cooperation.
India is also keen to ink a MoU on Maritime Security Cooperation with Myanmar, apart from starting exchanging data on the movement of commercial and non-military ships in the maritime neighbourhood of the two nations. The Indian Navy has also provided Myanmar Navy one of its submarines.
Myanmar is also involved in the India-China tangle. It shares a boundary tri-junction at Diphu Pass. Myanmar and China in 1960 demarcated the boundary between the two nations at the tri-junction. New Delhi, however, has not yet accepted it and it remains unsettled, just as the rest of the boundary between India and China.
Indian Submarine Gifted
India will transfer the Russian-origin Kilo-class Sindhuveer submarine, which will be commissioned by Myanmar as its first-ever submarine to give it the under-water fighting edge against its adversaries in the region.
INS Sindhuvir will be leased out to Myanmar, the only ASEAN country to have both land and maritime borders with India, as part of New Delhi‘s policy to checkmate China‘s strategic inroads into the Indian neighbourhood.
“This is in accordance with our vision of SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region – and also in line with our commitment to build capacities and self reliance in all our neighbouring countries.
The 3,000-tonne India-owned submarine is said to be 31 years old but has undergone regular refits at the Visakhapatnam-based state-run Hindustan Shipyard Limited and at Russia over the years, including adding of modern systems on board.
Myanmar has plans to buy similar Kilo-class submarines from Russia. This Myanmar move gained momentum after its neighbour Bangladesh inducted two Ming-class diesel-electric submarines from China in 2016.
In the run-up to the lease of INS Sindhuvir to Myanmar, the Indian Navy has been training its sailors at its submarine school, INS Satavahana, in Visakhapatnam as well as sending ‘mobile training teams’ to Naypyitaw for the last couple of years.
In 2017, India had supplied torpedoes to the Myanmar Navy. It has also sold sonars and radars to Myanmar in the past for its Kyan Sittha-class frigates.
Military Equipment
India has also supplied military hardware and software to Myanmar, which ranges from Islander maritime patrol aircraft and naval gun-boats to 105 mm light artillery guns, mortars, grenade-launchers and rifles.
Myanmar is also getting some armaments and electronic equipment, including radars manufactured by Bharat Electronics Limited, for its frigates and corvettes. The armies from the two countries have also smashed several insurgent bases and apprehended dozens of militants along their borders under ‘Operation Sunrise’ since January 2019.
During the visit India agreed to provide artillery guns, ammunition for T-72 tanks, radars, sonars and 500 bullet proof jackets to Myanmar’s military.
Insurgency on the Border
The Myanmar Army is conducting stepped-up offensive operations within its territory against Indian insurgent groups like NSCN (Khaplang), ULFA (I) and NDFB (S) as well as Myanmar outfits like Arakan Army and Kachin Independence Army.
Review of Chinese Projects
Suu Kyi’s government is re-assessing some of the infrastructure projects Beijing is keen to bankroll under the proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), apparently out of concerns over debt-trap the Belt-and-Road Initiative.
Nay Pyi Taw is purportedly upset over the continued flow of arms originating in China to the militant organizations in Myanmar.
Pressed on so many fronts, Myanmar might feel that the future would be better protected if China’s rising influence were to be checked. That might explain reports of New Delhi’s offer of a $6-billion petroleum refinery project and the talks to boost connectivity, power and energy projects, as well as joint efforts to tackle the pandemic.
Comments
The five-month-long stand-off not only took India-China relations to a new low but also brought under focus the competition between the two nations for geopolitical influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.
Relations between India and Myanmar have grown over the past decade and India has sought to engage Myanmar’s rulers, military or civilian, in a bid to counter China’s enormous presence in that country. However, its efforts have lacked the energy that characterizes China’s engagement of Myanmar. India’s infrastructure projects are running way behind schedule; the Kaladan project has moved at a snail’s pace. Meanwhile, China’s role in Myanmar’s economy and military has grown by leaps and bounds.
Keeping Myanmar on India’s side is essential to India’s security and territorial sovereignty. The possibility of China ramping up pressure on India by supporting anti-India insurgents in the North-East cannot be ruled out. India will be hoping for Myanmar’s continued support for its counter-insurgency operations in the North-East.
Myanmar’s civilian and military leaders are deeply suspicious of Chinese intentions in their country. But deep economic dependence on China has kept Myanmar in Beijing’s grip. It could make it vulnerable to Chinese pressure on strategic issues. This is a dependence that India must break.
