Maj Gen Deepak K Mehta
Pakistan is in flames and simultaneously in denial. It faces a perfect storm – economic, political, terrorism, security, demographic, health. It is economically broke, politically unstable and socially fragile. After massive floods in August 2022, insurgencies and internal security situation is out of control.
A suicide blast in Peshawar at a mosque in the well-protected police district killed and injured dozens. The TTP, nurtured by Pakistan, was blamed.
When in mid-2021, when the Taliban took over Kabul, Pakistanis danced with abandon. The prime minister hailed it as the second liberation of the Afghan people. Pakistan’s ISI tried to influence the composition of the Taliban Government. Today Afghanistan considers Pakistan as hostile and favours aid from India.
A collapsed state is the result of a longer-term degenerative process, in which a ruling regime is no longer able to satisfy the demands of societal groups rather than a temporary disruption such as a riot or a coup. Such appears to be the case of Pakistan.
Pakistan has the world’s fifth-biggest population but less than $3 bn in the state bank – just enough to cover one week of imports. There was a backlog of thousands of shipping containers at Karachi port stuffed with stock the country can no longer afford. The rupee has been devaluated number of times.
Pakistan owes $33 bn in loans and other foreign payments before the end of the fiscal year in June 2023. $4 billion has been rolled over by lending nations.
The unemployment rate is high, the currency is collapsing, reserves are depleted, exports are failing, imports have surged, inflation has risen manifold and businesses are going bankrupt.
IMF’s Strict Conditions
With national bankruptcy looming and no friendly countries willing to bail it out, Pakistan has followed IMF’s diktats, embracing austerity, raising prices, dismantling subsidies, floating its currency, banning luxury imports, but there is a trust deficit with IMF and donors.
In the midst of political chaos no one trusts Pakistan. The IMF is not willing to help, unless Pakistan slashes defence spending and eliminates subsidies. Pakistan’s austerity programme has been rejected. Pakistan has not honoured the promises made to IMF in 2022 after its bailout package of $7 bn. The tranche of $1.1 bn is held up. The Finance Minister publicly chided the IMF for acting “abnormally”!
In late January 2023, Pakistan’s Finance Minister recused himself from any responsibility for his country’s development claiming that since Pakistan was created in the name of Islam, Allah was responsible for its development and prosperity.
Aid Dried Up
Few nations trust Pakistan because much of the international aid in previous calamities had been purloined by the military. Even patron Saudi Arabia and trusted friend China seem tired of Pakistani leaders coming to beg every few months.
China’s Betrayal
Owners of China-built coal-fired power plants in the China Pakistan Exploitation Corridor have asked for their pending bills to be settled before supplying electricity. China is angry that its much-touted China Pakistan Exploitation Corridor is dying because Pakistan has reneged on its promise to pump money into it.
China, reeling under a growing mountain of debt (as much as 120% of its GDP), and is reluctant to sink more money.
Insurgent groups in Pakhtunistan and Balochistan are fighting occupying Chinese forces. Chinese workers have been killed in Pakistan. Pakistan’s inability to protect Chinese workers despite raising two divisions for the purpose, has led to Beijing threatening to post its own security agencies inside Pakistan, and demanded huge compensation for the slain Chinese nationals.
The cracks are showing in the relationship between China and Pakistan famously termed by Pakistanis as deeper than the oceans, higher than the mountains, sweeter than honey.
Pakistan’s entire fleet of JF 17 fighter planes (co-produced in Pakistan with China) has been grounded since 2022 owing to Russia-designed engine issues.
Economic Situation
The economic situation continues to deteriorate. Pakistani banks have refused to honour their own Letters of Credit leading to containers with imports piling up at the port.
A Pakistan International Airlines passenger plane with the passengers
still on board was seized by Malaysia, in January 2021, for non-payment of leasing fees of $15 mn.
Pakistan lost the Roosevelt Hotel in New York and the PIA-owned Scribe Hotel in Paris, after a court in the British Virgin Islands enforced an international arbitration decision regarding a disputed mining license involving two multinational mining firms.
An international arbitration tribunal, in July 2019, awarded approx $6 bn to an Australian joint venture, following Balochistan’s 2011 cancellation of a lease for copper/gold mines. The damageswere as large as the latest IMF loan package approved for Pakistan.
Spiralling inflation and unemployment and not Kashmir are the biggest problems haunting the people of Pakistan. Pakistan briefly and partially lifted its ban on trade with India to control the soaring prices of food grains, sugar and cotton, but quickly rescinded it.
In January 2023, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif did make some conciliatory statements and said it wanted good relations with India but, possibly threatened by the military, promptly went back on it and said no talks were possible till Article 370 that ended Kashmir’s unusual status was reintroduced.
The Bogie of Kashmir
Pakistanis have been brainwashed into believing that “Kashmir banega Pakistan.”
The abrogation of Article 370 removed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, bringing it on par with other states in India. This step towards constitutional integration has strengthened Kashmir’s territorial integrity. Abrogation has paved the way for increased economic opportunities and development in the region, infrastructure projects, investments, and job opportunities, potentially improving the socio-economic conditions of the local population.
The abrogation ensures that all citizens of Jammu and Kashmir have equal rights and opportunities as citizens of other Indian states. This includes access to education, employment, and other government schemes and benefits.
Internal Security
The Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan has forged relations with Punjabi jihadi groups, al-Qaida, Baloch and Sindhi fighters, Islamic State and Punjab criminal gangs, and now runs the hinterland. TTP’s primary goal is to establish their version of Islamic law in Pakistan and overthrow the government. They have been responsible for numerous attacks targeting security forces, government officials, and civilians.
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), an ethno-nationalist separatist group operating has become active to gain independence for Balochistan, which they perceive as being politically and economically marginalized by the Pakistani government. The group has targeted security forces, government officials, and infrastructure projects.
Sindhudesh Liberation Army (SLA) has claimed responsibility for several low-level attacks and acts of sabotage in the past, targeting infrastructure and security forces. Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM), a political organization, seeks greater rights and autonomy for the Sindhi people within Pakistan.
Conclusion
Pakistan is in an advanced stage of decay due to its corrupt political system, despotic politicians, an Army accountable to none, a misplaced judiciary and a delusional society.
Imran Khan: From Blaming the U.S. to Getting Shot in the Leg
From blaming the United States for toppling his government to getting shot in the leg at a rally to force snap polls, here is a timeline of the events:
April 10, 2022: Khan is voted out of office in a no-confidence vote.
May 25-26, 2022: Khan leads his “long march” into Islamabad; the protest is called off to avoid confrontation.
July 18, 2022: Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party sweeps Punjab province in a by-election.
Aug 22, 2022: Khan is charged under an “anti-terror” law; charges are later dropped.
October 21, 2022: Pakistan’s election commission disqualifies Khan from running for public office for five years.
October 28, 2022: Khan launches his second “long march” from Lahore to Islamabad to force early elections.
November 3, 2022: Khan is shot in the leg in a protest convoy in Punjab province.
