Patterns of history may not repeat themselves but they certainly rhyme. Let us take a brief look at the pattern of events that led to World War-I and World War-II. Both occurred in a period of multi-polarity and were preceded by massive economic devastation caused by trade wars. Thus, trade wars ruined the global economy prior to World War-I and the Great Depression of the 1930s, that virtually destroyed the global economy, set the stage for World War-II.
Covid-19 has been the most devastating Black Swan event in recent global memory. It has severely disrupted the global supply chains and will cause devastating levels of damage to the global economy. The patterns are obvious. A trade war had broken out between the USA and China prior to Covid-19 pandemic. Even as the bat-borne coronavirus was breaking out in Wuhan, a ceasefire of sorts was negotiated during the ongoing trade war. Trade negotiations were completed in December 19 and the deal was to be signed on 20 January when China deftly inserted a force majeure clause – that included an epidemic. China by then was well aware of the bat-borne novel coronavirus that had broken out in Wuhan. However, for reasons of national prestige (or otherwise), China was actively suppressing information of this dreaded epidemics outbreak.
While China enforced a strict lockdown in Wuhan and Hubei province, it kept its borders open and flights to USA and Europe and other countries continue unchecked. The epidemic spread widely by this unrestricted air travel and free local movement to neighbouring countries. In fact, the virus really came to light when Vietnam and other countries began to report cases. What has aroused great suspicion is the fact that even though countries located 12,000 miles away and more were severely hit – Beijing, the national capital (located just 1100 kms away) and Shanghai, the business capital (located a mere 830 kms away) – remained unscathed.
Initially, the consensus amongst experts was that it was a natural epidemic that had broken out from the wet markets of Wuhan, where the bat-borne coronavirus had made the leap from animals to humans. Then there was a chorus of accusations and innuendos that seemed to suggest that it was either an accidental release of a manmade coronavirus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (Wuhan lab) or even worse – a deliberate release. The first to make such accusation was Radio Free Asia (a CIA propaganda organ) and then The Washington Post that cited an Israeli bio-warfare expert, Dany Shoham stating that Wuhan city had two Chinese biological warfare facilities and insinuating the leak had occurred there. The accusations being made against China were two-fold:
• The novel coronavirus was made in the Wuhan lab and had leaked from there.
• China had deliberately suppressed information about the virus in the initial stages and, thereby, facilitated its spread. The World Health Organisation (WHO), under Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, toed the Chinese line. This delayed the global response, thereby, resulting in such massive casualties.
The Chinese Perspective
The trade war with the USA, the unrest in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and the US Government’s steps to strengthen relations with Taiwan had made the Chinese leadership fairly paranoid. They felt that the US was actively involved in destablising China and an aggressive response was called for. In these innuendoes and accusations it saw a sinister information warfare offensive. It retaliated with counter accusations that the US Army Special Forces had introduced this novel bat coronavirus in Wuhan during the October 2019 Army Games. Given the six weeks incubation period, patient zero was hospitalized in end-November 2019. It accused the USA of running three biological warfare facilities – one at Maryland, USA and one each in Lugan Centre Georgia and Kazakhstan (Research Institute for Bio Safety Problems) and demanded that these be shut down.
Military Moves
Military moves from both sides were underway in January 2020 itself. The USA had carried out missile firing tests in the South China Sea, sailed forward two aircraft carriers – USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Ronald Reagan. Astonishingly, their crews were infected by the novel coronavirus and soon their carriers were rendered hors de combat and were locked down in the ports of Guam and Yokohama. The coronavirus epidemic seemed to be raging there and media reports indicated withdrawal of several US warplanes and naval units from Guam, perhaps to safeguard them from the corona epidemic.
Meanwhile, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) mounted large scale military exercises against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Waves of fighters and bombers simulated attacks against Taiwan. China’s sole aircraft carrier Liaoning, along with two destroyers, two frigates and a support ship made a deep foray via the East China Sea and behind Taiwan to carry out provocative offensive manoeuevres. The PLAN and its associated ships sank a Vietnamese fishing boat in South China Sea and when two vessels were sent to save the crew, China arrested these ships. The USA was by then reeling under the virulent shock of the pandemic and China seemed to be spoiling for a fight at sea. Some felt it was trying to provoke a major incident to give itself an excuse to possibly mount an invasion operation against Taiwan. 2020 is the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and there were media speculations that China was planning to integrate Taiwan by 2021 to show a stellar achievement of the CCP to the Chinese people and the world.
Given this scenario of aggressive Chinese military posturing against Taiwan when the world was reeling with the Covid pandemic, could China have possibly unleashed a Biological Pearl Harbour at Wuhan to cause disarray and disorganization in the USA and Europe prior to striking? There were media speculations that, in 2020-21, China would attack Taiwan and in tandem North Korea would attack South Korea. Also Pakistan would attack India in Kashmir to keep India wholly tied down in this conflict to celebrate the CCPs 100th anniversary in 2021.
It was a wild card scenario. Covid-19 ensured that all news about these major military moves off the Taiwan coast and in the South China Sea went largely under- reported. Whenever China has unleashed aggressive moves against Taiwan, the US Navy has responded by surging forward 4-5 of its aircraft carrier battle groups. These were surged forward again, but surprisingly two were rendered unfit for action due to Covid-19 infection of their crew. China in the meantime triumphantly paraded its sole aircraft carrier and escort ships in the Taiwan Straits. In the South China Sea it sank a Vietnamese fishing boat. Pakistan stepped up its aggressive behavior in J&K with over a 1,000 ceasefire violations, major infiltration attempts and three high profile attacks against the security forces. The new Chinese axis seemed to be displaying military triumphalism. Was that born out of a perceived success in a biological first strike? After all, Chinese military doctrines have quite openly been advocating the use of biological agents to ensure disarray in enemy ranks prior to any kinetic military action. At times, bringing an enemy to its knees without resort to any kinetic action has also been emphasized. These events cannot be seen in isolation and have to be analysed as parts of a composite picture.
How was China so well prepared for the Covid pandemic? How did its national and financial capitals remain unscathed? Had it been caught by surprise by the pandemic would its military be undertaking such aggressive and reckless manoeuvres at precisely the same time? What assurances have been given to Pakistan to so embolden it to start destabilizing J&K once again – despite the clear warning of Balakot?
America’s Recovery and Response
America was reeling under the bat coronavirus pandemic. Lakhs of its citizens were infected and over 50,000 had died. Initially, experts the world over gave a clean chit to China and stated it was a natural epidemic that had originated in the wet markets of Wuhan. As the infection curve seemed to flatten out in the USA, we increasingly began to hear more strident accusations from the USA. Very soon President Trump and Mike Pompeo were accusing China of being responsible for an accidental leak of a novel man-made coronavirus from its lab at Wuhan. The US was also accusing China of deliberately withholding and suppressing information in the critical initial stage that allowed the pandemic to spread globally and cause so much economic disruption and loss of life.
Chinese Military Doctrines and Capabilities
The 2017 edition of the PLA Science of Military Strategy added a new chapter on Biological Warfare titled “Biology as a Domain for Military Struggle”. This is an official doctrinal document and not views of individual retired officers. In 2010, we had a book from Guo Jiwei of PLA University “War for Power”, which outlined a concept of war with biological characteristics. In 2017 itself, Gen Zhang Shibo (former president Chinese National Defence University) wrote a book called “New Highland of War”. He talked of weaponisation of living organisms and offensive capability of biological warfare. (Monika Chansoria).
The world has outlawed biological warfare. In such a scenario it is unacceptable for a major and responsible power to publish official doctrines openly advocating biological warfare.
Both China and the USA have been actively creating biological warfare capabilities with special emphasis on novel bat coronavirus strains that spread with great rapidity. Both have accused each other of accidental leaks/deliberate biological attacks.
With so much of disinformation doing the rounds it is hard to determine the truth. The following is however pertinent:
• Both the USA and China have been investing heavily in biological warfare capabilities despite the treaty banning biological warfare.
• In 2018, a Joint US-China study had identified 89 varieties of bat coronaviruses.
• These were not transmittable to humans. PLA biological labs led by Dr Shi Zhengli and Maj Gen Chen Wei (top epidemiologist/ virologist) have been conducting research on weaponising the bat coronavirus (allegation in law suit filed by Larry Klayman).
• Maj Gen Dr Shi Zhengli had written four research papers on splicing the S-protein (spike protein) of the SARS virus on to the novel bat coronavirus strains discovered earlier in PLA labs. These have suddenly been taken off the net and she has disappeared from view (Investigation report by Epoch Times of USA).
• The Covid-19 virus gene sequencing has revealed that it has 100% amino acids and 89.1% nucleotide matching with the two bat coronavirus strains isolated earlier by the PLA Biological Warfare Laboratory (Institute of Military Medicine, Nanjing). The virus strains isolated were Coviz C-45 and CovZX C-21 from bats in Zhoushan. This degree of matching cannot happen if it was a natural mutation. The inference being drawn is that the SARS S-protein molecule (spike-hook) has possibly been spliced on to the natural bat coronavirus strains isolated earlier in the PLA lab study. Judy Mikovetz has alleged that no bats were being sold in the Wuhan wet market. (Epoch Times report).
Was Wuhan virus a Biological Pearl Harbour? Have trade wars escalated into biological first strikes and will kinetic action follow in Taiwan and South China Sea? Time alone will tell but the drift towards war is ominous. Economic ruin urges nations to fight. Whether war will get kinetic or remain confined to a Cold War with covert biological and information war strikes remains to be seen. Conflict, however, is now in the open between the USA and China. President Trump and Mike Pompeo both have accused China of accidental release of a lab-made virus and deliberately suppressing information in the initial stages of the epidemic. A strong US economy was Donald Trump’s main election plank. With that suddenly gone, the situation has become ominous in an election year. US media reports indicate that President Trump has appointed Richard Grenell, a former media czar of Fox News, as the new director of National Intelligence with 17 agencies reporting to him. The thrust towards information war now appears clear. The fact that the Chinese regime is feeling highly threatened (Trade war, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc) and the USA is headed for a hotly-contested presidential election only complicates issues in a very major way. Accidents could happen when nations step on the escalation ladder.
