After a long hiatus marked by minimal diplomatic interactions, Pakistan and the US have witnessed a significant renewal in their engagement over the past few months. This discernible reset in US-Pakistan relations is characterized by enhanced defence cooperation, economic agreements, and high-level symbolism. Pakistan’s Army Chief has made two official visits to the US in as many months, reflecting a change in the approach of the US. Unprecedented invitations to a private White House lunch with President Donald Trump and the change of command at CENTCOM highlight the reestablishment of close military-to-military and diplomatic ties. The Trump administration has also recalibrated its approach to Pakistan, unveiling a “massive” oil exploration and development deal, and discussing broader cooperation in critical minerals, trade, technology, and counterterrorism. Although several factors have contributed to this shift, media coverage has particularly emphasized Pakistan’s endorsement of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as a personal glorification, along with the signing of a deal with World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency firm connected to the US President’s family. Underlying strategic reasons include possible future assistance in addressing Iran if required, changing regional dynamics marked by rising US-India trade tensions, new US tariffs on Indian goods, and Washington’s growing frustration with India over its increasing purchases of Russian oil and arms. Unlike in the past, Pakistan is positioning itself as a multidimensional partner of the US to enhance its leverage, not just as a security enabler.

The use of terrorism against India as an instrument of state policy by Pakistan began in 1989. Pakistan’s importance to Washington has fluctuated—peaking during periods such as the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the late 1980s, US military engagement in Afghanistan post-9/11, and more recently when Pakistan has been viewed as a facilitator in the Afghan peace process. Historically, terrorist activities in J&K have tended to increase whenever Pakistan’s strategic utility to the United States has risen. Relying on US support as a shield, Islamabad has perceived greater latitude to support proxy war operations with reduced fear of international repercussions and strong punitive measures. During these periods, Pakistan has benefited from increased political leverage and aid flows, while militant groups operating in J&K have often found greater freedom of action. The highest numbers of terrorist killings in J&K occurred during the 1990s and early 2000s, which were the peak years of militancy. During this period, a large portion of the overall casualties—estimated at around 41,000 deaths, including civilians, security personnel, and terrorists—took place. In the 2010s, escalations in terror attacks like the 2016 Uri attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack coincided with critical moments in US-Pakistan cooperation in Afghanistan. Therefore, empirically, the Kargil conflict of 1999 and other surges in violence occurred during or just after periods of intense US-Pakistan cooperation. However, despite periods of global anti-terror pressure, infrastructure and support for militants have persisted in Pakistan, with the involvement of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in training, arming, and financing these groups.

Operation Sindoor, initiated on May 7, 2025, in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed the lives of 26 innocent civilians, achieved its strategic and military objectives decisively. These objectives were to punish the perpetrators and planners of terror, destroy their infrastructure, demonstrate resolve, raise costs, impose caution on Pakistan, and thus restore deterrence that had waned since the Balakot air strikes five years ago. India has also adopted a declaratory policy on May 10, stating that any future act of terror will be considered an act of war against the country and will be responded to accordingly. This being an inflection point, the India-Pakistan equation has changed permanently by introducing the certainty of retaliation to every attack. However, it is important to distinguish between high-profile terrorist attacks like Mumbai, Uri, Pulwama, and Pahalgam, and localized, low-intensity terrorist incidents in J&K, which has been suffering from militancy abetted by Pakistan since the late 1980s. These low-intensity attacks, which have been occurring in J&K regularly, cannot be construed as a loss of deterrence.

Now, with Pakistan’s utility to the US having surged, it will be emboldened to continue the proxy war against India and keep tensions simmering. Therefore, terrorist actions below the tolerance threshold—restricted to J&K, targeted killings of migrants, tactical actions on the Line of Control (LC), and trans-LC firing—are likely to continue. The current estimated number of active terrorists in J&K, according to police and intelligence reports, is around 120, with 61 being foreign terrorists. Therefore, to make up numbers, a spike in infiltration of terrorists across the borders in J&K is very likely in the next few months before winter snows make passage across the LC in Kashmir difficult. Murmurs of statehood being restored in J&K are also likely to build pressure on Pakistan to direct terrorist handlers to initiate incidents to demonstrate that it is a disputed territory. These efforts will be complemented by increased narcotics smuggling—especially using drones—incitement of communal violence, and the smuggling of fake Indian currency notes, among other activities aimed at destabilizing India.

This can be related to recent media reports and intelligence inputs alluding to Pakistan having reactivated and rebuilt over 15 terrorist training camps and launch pads within the last 90 days in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), following India’s Operation Sindoor. Pakistan’s ISI and other government agencies are reportedly providing substantial funding—estimated at more than PKR100 crore—and logistical support to rebuild these camps. The reconstructed camps are smaller in size to avoid detection and are equipped with advanced technological counter-surveillance measures such as radar camouflage, satellite masking, and drone usage. These camps are located across various places in POK, including Kel, Shardi, Dudhniyal, Athmuqam, Jura, Leepa Valley, Tandpani, Nayyali, Jankot, Chakothi, and others. Additionally, four launch pads along the International Border in the Jammu region have also been reactivated. The terrorists are apparently using lessons from Operation Sindoor by employing smaller camps of about two dozen militants and dispersing locations to evade Indian intelligence and military forces. The rebuilt infrastructure efficiently supports recruitment, training, and operational planning for attacks in J&K.

Until US interests shift and Pakistan feels greater pressure to curb such activities again, the security forces need to retain and sustain a robust counter-infiltration posture on the LC, as well as an extensive counter-terrorism grid in the depth areas of J&K, irrespective of overall violence levels. At present, there is no room for complacency or lowering the guard, given the improved security situation in J&K. The gains made by the security forces should not be squandered at this stage.

The author is a former Vice Chief of Army Staff

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Pakistan’s Khushab nuclear complex, located in Punjab province, sits at the heart of the country’s weapons-grade plutonium production effort. This facility stands apart from standard nuclear power plants, thanks to its specialized heavy-water-moderated reactors – four in total – that collectively produce significant amounts of both plutonium and tritium, two essential ingredients for modern nuclear weapon designs. Estimates suggest that Pakistan currently maintains a stockpile of around 170 nuclear devices, each requiring on the order of 10 grams of tritium to achieve boosted fission yields. By leveraging short irradiation cycles, uranium metal fuels, and potentially lithium-6 doping, these reactors can generate not only the desired high-purity ²³⁹Pu (weapons-grade plutonium) but also tritium-albeit at levels that may be constrained by operational inefficiencies.

A pivotal enabler in this setup is heavy water (D₂O), produced onsite using hydrogen sulfide (H²S) exchange technology. Heavy water allows the use of natural or low-enriched uranium, making the process more flexible and cost-effective for weapons purposes. Additionally, these reactors can be tuned to shorter burnups – around 5-6 MWd/kg – to keep the plutonium at ²³⁹Pu 90 wt%. Tritium emerges from two main pathways: neutron capture in deuterium (within the D₂O) and irradiation of lithium-6 (either in targets or doped into reactor elements). Because tritium decays at a rate of 5.6% per year, Pakistan must replenish its stockpile constantly to keep existing warheads operational, which, in turn, shapes how Khushab’s reactors might be run-whether in single-batch modes or partial/ continuous recycling to maximize throughput of weapons-usable materials.

This article:
1. Examines the Khushab Reactors’ Design and Operation
•              Outlining the four heavy-water reactors, their typical power ranges, and why short-cycle irradiation is crucial for achieving weapons-grade plutonium.
•              Highlighting the importance of uranium metal fuel and describe how its properties facilitate rapid breed-out of ²³⁹Pu .
2.            Explore Heavy-Water Production and Lithium-6 Doping
•              Detailing the hydrogen sulfide exchange process that supplies Khushab’s heavy water.
•              Explaining the use of lithium-6 targets or doping, illustrating how tritium is generated in tandem with plutonium.
3.            Analyzing Tritium Requirements for an Arsenal of 170 Devices
•              Demonstrating how tritium’s half-life drives annual replenishment needs for existing warheads.
•              Presenting a more realistic tritium production range (down 30-35% from theoretical maxima) and show how this impacts the number of additional weapons each year.
4.            Quantify the Potential for New Warhead Production
•              By comparing the available plutonium output and the leftover tritium to calculate 3-5 new boosted devices per annum.
•              Discussing how short reactor cycles, frequent refueling, or partial reloads can amplify or constrain these figures.

By piecing together these reactor operations, fuel cycles, and radioactive by-products, we gain a clearer view of how Pakistan sustains and potentially expands its nuclear arsenal. The Khushab complex emerges as a technically sophisticated enterprise that, through judicious use of heavy water, uranium metal fuel, and lithium doping, can co-produce high-quality plutonium and tritium. Understanding these processes, along with the numbers that shape arsenal maintenance and growth, remains central to grasping the full scope of Pakistan’s nuclear posture.

ALSO READ: Pakistan Army rubbishes Imran Khan allegations; says nukes are safe

Operational Layout: Three Modes of Khushab Reactor Operations
One of the distinctive features of the Khushab heavy-water reactors is their flexibility in how they can be fueled and operated. Depending on Pakistan’s objectives-tritium production for boosting to maximizing weapons grade Plutonium production-each reactor can be run in a specific mode. These modes differ in terms of fuel cycle length, lithium-6 doping, and burnup levels. Below is an outline of the three principal modes:

1. Baseline “Clean Core” Mode
Objective: Higher burnup for somewhat more conventional operations, not aimed at producing weapons-grade plutonium.
A.            Fuel & Burnup
•              Typically uses low-enriched uranium (could be 3.5-4% ²³⁵U) or even natural uranium, depending on design.
•              Operates with longer irradiation cycles (e.g.12-18 months, analogous to some commercial or research reactors) to extract more energy per kilogram of fuel.
•              The resulting plutonium has a higher concentration of ²⁴⁰Pu and other heavier isotopes (e.g. ²⁴¹Pu), making it unsuitable for weapons-grade needs.
B.            Tritium Production
•              Primarily from neutron capture in deuterium within the heavy-water moderator; lithium doping is minimal or absent.
•              Yields moderate amounts of tritium-tied to total neutron flux and operational conditions-but significantly less than a dedicated tritium-focused cycle.
C.            Fuel Recycling
•              Often a once-through approach or partial reload for experimental or civilian use.
•              This mode is not optimized for short discharge or high Li doping, so the impetus for reprocessing for weapons material is low.
Outcome:
•              A “clean core” yields relatively higher burnup but non-weapons-grade plutonium.
•              Tritium production is secondary, mostly a side effect of heavy-water usage, rather than a targeted outcome.

2.            “Tritium Core” Mode
Objective: Maximize tritium output-especially if the goal is to build or maintain boosted fission devices.
A.            Fuel & Li-6 Doping
•              The reactor can still use standard or lightly enriched uranium.
•              Lithium-6 doping (via targets) is significantly increased, so a greater fraction of neutrons produce ³H  (tritium).
B.            Cycle Length & Burnup
•              Can vary: some operators maintain a moderate cycle to strike a balance between tritium generation and overall reactor output.
•              Plutonium is still produced but has higher isotopic contamination (more ²⁴⁰Pu, ²⁴¹Pu  ) because the fuel remains in the core longer.
C.            Tritium Handling
•              Larger emphasis on tritium recovery and purification (through dedicated tritium extraction systems).
•              If the moderator or coolant is heavily doped with Li-6, specialized facilities are needed to capture the tritium.
Outcome:
•              High tritium yield due to lithium captures, but plutonium is not weapons-grade (longer irradiation times degrade the ²³⁹Pu  purity).
•              Useful when the operator’s main concern is sustaining or expanding tritium stockpiles.

3.            “Co-Production Core” Mode
Objective: Simultaneously produce weapons-grade plutonium (90% ²³⁹Pu) and significant tritium in one cycle.
A.            Short Irradiation for Pu
•              The fuel (often uranium metal for efficient breeding and short residence) is discharged at low burnup (e.g., 5-6 MWd/kg).
•              This ensures the plutonium remains high in   ²³⁹Pu content, avoiding excessive ²⁴⁰Pu  buildup.
B.            Enhanced Li-6 Doping
•              To drive up tritium production, operators may incorporate additional Li-6.
•              Each short cycle yields a batch of both high-purity plutonium and a notable quantity of tritium (recovered post-irradiation).
C.            Frequent Refueling / Partial Reload
•              Because burnup is capped so low, the reactor must be refueled more often (possibly every few months).
•              This leads to frequent shutdowns or continuous on-power refueling (if the reactor design allows).
•              Spent fuel is quickly reprocessed to extract the newly bred ²³⁹Pu .
Outcome:
•              Achieves both nuclear weapons materials in a single reactor cycle.
•              Less efficient in terms of energy production (since the fuel is discharged prematurely).
•              Typically the best approach for maximizing warhead potential:  90% ²³⁹Pu  plus tens of grams to over a hundred grams of tritium per year (depending on the reactor size and doping).

ALSO READ: NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Nuclear Dynamics in South Asia

How These Modes Impact Khushab’s Output
A.            Mode Selection is Driven by Objectives
•              Pakistan can switch between or balance these modes across its four Khushab reactors, depending on whether it prioritizes straightforward electricity/research (clean core), high tritium (tritium core), or co-producing tritium and weapons-grade plutonium (co-production core).
•              In practice, open-source assessments suggest co-production might be favored if the goal is to maintain a steady stream of both quality plutonium and sufficient tritium.
B.            Material Throughput
•              For co-production or tritium-focused modes, the reactors see frequent short cycles  -> more fresh or recycled fuel required.
•              Single-batch or partial reload patterns ensure ²³⁹Pu is extracted before significant neutron capture forms unwanted isotopes (²⁴⁰Pu, etc.).
C.            Arsenal Growth
•              Recent estimates place Pakistan’s arsenal at 170 nuclear devices.
•              If co-production is pursued, each Khushab reactor can yield a certain fraction of the required plutonium plus tens of grams of tritium per year, enough to maintain existing warheads (due to tritium decay) and produce 3-5 new devices annually in aggregate-depending on operational efficiency and doping strategies.

By adjusting among these three modes, Khushab’s operators effectively control the balance of weapons-grade plutonium, tritium yield, and overall burnup. This operational flexibility is what makes the Khushab complex central to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program-allowing shifts in strategy as material needs evolve.

Tritium Requirements and Warhead Production Potential
An integral part of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program revolves around managing tritium ³H – a short-lived isotope essential to boost the yield of fission warheads. Because tritium decays relatively quickly, maintaining and expanding a tritium stockpile becomes a continuous operational concern. This section explores how Pakistan’s estimated arsenal of 170 devices might drive ongoing tritium needs and how Khushab’s production fits into meeting those demands while still enabling the manufacture of new warheads.
A.            Existing Arsenal: Decay and Annual Replenishment
•              Tritium has a half-life of 12.32 years, meaning it decays at about 5.6% per year. Consequently, each device loses a fraction of its original T load annually.
B.            Annual Top-Up Needs
•              Each device’s 10 g T inventory diminishes by around 0.56 g per year (5.6% of 10 g).
•              Multiplied by 170 devices, the entire arsenal loses an estimated 95 grams of T annually.
•              Replacing that 95 g is necessary to keep the boosted warheads at full potency.
C.            Role of Purity
•              It is crucial that only high-purity tritium-free of contaminants-is used in warheads.
•              Because tritium often needs re-extraction and purification, Pakistan’s actual annual requirement may be somewhat higher than 95 g to account for processing losses.

Tritium Production at Khushab
A.            Reduced Output Estimates
•              Under ideal “co-production” mode, open-source estimates once placed the four Khushab reactors’ total tritium capacity near 200 g per year.
•              However, factoring in operational inefficiencies (maintenance downtime, suboptimal lithium doping, partial cycles), a 30-35% reduction is realistic.
•              This lowers the annual production to around 130-140 g across all four reactors.
B.            Meeting the Arsenal’s Replenishment
•              If Khushab provides  130-140 g T per year, then 95 g must go to replace decayed tritium in existing warheads.
•              That leaves  35-45 g surplus T for expansion or other strategic reserves.
C.            Tritium Extraction & Handling
•              Whether produced via lithium-6 doping (in metallic Li targets or Li-bearing coolant) or as a by-product of heavy-water operation, tritium must be removed from reactor systems.
•              Dedicated tritium recovery facilities (and possibly enrichment systems) are needed to purify T to weapons-grade quality.
•              This adds complexity and expense but is essential for ensuring a reliable supply of boost-quality tritium.

Plutonium and the Production of New Warheads
A.            Plutonium Availability
•              Short burnups (5-6 MWd/kg) at Khushab produce weapons-grade plutonium with  90 wt%  ²³⁹Pu.
•              Aggregate annual output from the four reactors can reach tens of kilograms of Pu-enough for several warheads if each requires 5-8 kg.
B.            Tritium-Driven Bottleneck
•              Even if plutonium is plentiful, tritium often becomes the limiting factor for assembling new boosted warheads.
•              With an estimated 35-45g leftover per year (after replenishing the existing stockpile), the amount of new weapons possible depends on each warhead’s T load.
C.            3-5 New Devices per Year
•              A typical boosted device might again use 10 g of tritium.
•              Given 35-45g of surplus, 3-4 new warheads per year are comfortably supported.
•              Some slight year-to-year variance (e.g., improved Li-6 doping or improved reactor uptime) might push this figure to 5 in especially productive periods.

Through these interwoven processes, Khushab’s reactors uphold Pakistan’s capacity to maintain an existing arsenal of 170 devices, each reliant on regular tritium top-ups, while still enabling an incremental growth in warhead count of 3-5 new boosted devices per year. The precise output each year hinges on reactor uptime, doping strategies, and reprocessing throughput-but in broad terms, this arrangement presents a robust pathway to sustaining and modestly expanding a plutonium-based, boosted weapon program.

Technical Underpinnings: Uranium Metal Fuel, Heavy Water Production, and Lithium-6
The Khushab reactors derive their unique dual-production capability-of weapons-grade plutonium and tritium-from a combination of fuel choices, moderator technology, and isotopic doping. This section delves deeper into these critical elements, explaining why uranium metal is chosen over typical uranium oxide, how heavy water is produced and utilized, and the significance of lithium-6 in enhancing tritium yields.
1.            Uranium Metal Fuel
a.            Why Metal Fuel Instead of Oxide
•              Higher Density: Uranium metal has a greater density of fissile atoms compared to uranium oxide (UO₂), which can favor faster conversion of ²³⁸Pu into ²³⁹Pu.
•              Rapid Neutron Economy: Short-cycle or low-burnup reactors benefit from a more reactive core at startup. Metal fuel offers improved thermophysical properties (higher thermal conductivity, more favorable neutronics) for breeding.
•              Easier Fuel Fabrication for Weapons-Grade Goals: When the objective is to discharge fuel early (at 5-6 MWd/kg) to preserve a high fraction of ²³⁹Pu, metal fuel rods can be replaced more readily without the complexities associated with longer-burnup oxide fuels.
b.            Drawbacks and Handling
•              Corrosion Sensitivity: Uranium metal can be more reactive with coolants and requires protective cladding (e.g., Zircaloy or stainless steel).
•              Higher Fabrication Cost: Producing and shaping metal fuel assemblies is more specialized than standard reactor-grade UO₂.
•              Weapons-Focused: The tradeoff is that metal fuel is far less efficient for electrical power generation at high burnups but is excellent for short, intense plutonium production cycles.
2. Heavy Water (D₂O) Production at Khushab
a.            Role of Heavy Water
•              Key Moderator: D₂O has a low neutron absorption cross section, making it ideal for fueling with natural or slightly enriched uranium.
•              Higher Conversion Ratio: The superior neutron economy means more neutrons survive to convert ²³⁸Pu  into ²³⁹Pu.
•              Tritium By-Product: As neutrons interact with deuterium nuclei, a fraction of them form tritium (3H), especially over multiple reactor cycles.
b.            Hydrogen Sulfide (H₂S) Exchange Process
•              Industrial Setup: Pakistan relies on exchange towers where chemical equilibrium between hydrogen sulfide gas and liquid water progressively enriches deuterium.
•              Scalability: Multiple units and large volumes of H₂S allow for a steady throughput of deuterium, eventually yielding high-purity heavy water.
•              Onsite Integration: The Khushab site is believed to have its own heavy-water production facility, ensuring a domestic, uninterrupted supply crucial for fueling short cycles repeatedly.
c.             Moderator Management
•              In specialized “tritium core” or “co-production core” modes, operators may carefully monitor D₂O purity (removing contaminants, including the trace buildup of tritium) to maintain the moderator’s reactivity while also recovering the tritium.
3. Lithium-6 for Tritium Enhancement
a.            Capture Reaction
•              ⁶Li+n→α+³H: Lithium-6 has a high cross section for thermal neutrons, making it a potent driver for tritium production.
•              Metallic Targets or Coolant Doping: Li-bearing targets can massively boost T output. This approach is especially favored if the reactor runs in a “tritium” or “co-production” mode.
b.            Facility Requirements
•              Tritium Recovery: Post-irradiation, the tritium must be extracted-either from the coolant or from discrete target elements. This process demands specialized handling and radiochemical processing to achieve the high purity needed for weapons usage.
•              Cost & Complexity: Lithium doping adds extra costs and engineering overhead, but it allows operators to meet the arsenal’s T needs (both for replacing decayed tritium in existing warheads and for fueling new devices).
c.             Synergy with Heavy Water
•              While D₂O alone can produce some tritium via, ²H + n → ³H adding Li-6 significantly increases total tritium yield.
•              This synergy is pivotal in the “co-production” mode, ensuring there is enough T to match the volume of newly produced weapons-grade plutonium.

In essence, Khushab’s choice of uranium metal fuel, reliance on onsite heavy-water production, and selective use of lithium-6 doping are tightly interwoven strategies. They maximize plutonium quality and tritium yields, ensuring that Pakistan can both sustain its arsenal of 170 boosted devices over time and incrementally expand it by an estimated 3-5 new warheads per year in a “co-production” operational regime.

Spent Fuel Reprocessing and Fuel Cycle Management
While the Khushab reactors themselves lie at the core of Pakistan’s weapons-material generation, reprocessing of the discharged fuel is what ultimately unlocks the produced plutonium. In parallel, specialized tritium extraction processes ensure that any ³H generated-whether via lithium-6 targets or the heavy-water moderator-is recovered at sufficient purity for weaponization. This section explains how spent fuel reprocessing undergirds the entire cycle, from short core irradiation to final warhead production.
A.            Why Reprocessing Is Crucial
a.            Extracting Weapons-Grade Plutonium
•              When fuel is discharged at 5-6MWd/kg burnup, the newly formed ²³⁹Pu still resides within a matrix of other isotopes, fission products, and unburned uranium.
•              Chemical separation is necessary to isolate plutonium from this highly radioactive mix.
•              Pakistan’s known or suspected reprocessing sites (e.g., the New Labs facility at the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology) handle this critical step.
b.            Closing the Loop
•              Because the short cycle discards fuel while most of its fissile potential remains untapped (intentionally so, to keep ²³⁹Pu pure), reprocessing recovers unburned uranium and the newly created plutonium.
•              If operators choose, they can blend the recovered uranium-now possibly enriched with some plutonium-back into fresh fuel elements, continuing the cycle.
c.             Resource Efficiency
•              Continuous or partial reloads, combined with reprocessing, drastically reduce the amount of fresh enriched uranium needed each year to maintain Khushab’s production tempo.
•              While not as resource-efficient as commercial high-burnup reactors, it is optimal for weapons purposes.
B.            Recovering Tritium from Heavy Water and Li-6 Targets
a.            Tritium Extraction Systems
•              When reactors are doped with lithium-6, a significant fraction of   will be created directly in targets or in Li-bearing coolant sections.
•              Specialized tritium extraction facilities (chemical or cryogenic separation steps) are required to separate the ³H from other hydrogen isotopes.
•              Heavy-water cleanup can also yield T, but only if there is an attached tritium recovery plant.
b.            Purification for Weapons Use
•              Weapons-usable tritium needs to be virtually free of other isotopes (especially ²H) and contaminants.
•              Techniques may involve vacuum distillation, isotopic exchange columns, or cryogenic distillation. These are expensive and demand meticulous handling protocols.
c.             Inventory Management
•              Given the short half-life (12.32 years), reprocessing staff must track how much T is lost over time and ensure just-in-time transfers from the reactor/coolant loops to storage before decay lowers its effective concentration.
•              The synergy of frequent reactor refueling and regular extraction cycles helps keep a steady flow of fresh T ready for warhead assemblies.
C. Short Refueling Cycles: Operational Footprint
a.            Batch vs. Continuous Replenishment
•              Batch Refueling: The reactor is shut down at the end of a short (100-200 day) run, all fuel is removed, and fresh or recycled fuel is loaded.
•              On-Power Refueling: Possible in some PHWR designs, where spent bundles are swapped out gradually so that the core remains critical without lengthy outages.
b.            Frequent Fuel Transfers
•              Whether batch or continuous, the net result is significantly more frequent spent fuel transfers to reprocessing sites than in a typical commercial reactor.
•              This heightened traffic in spent fuel casks or reprocessing shipments is a key indicator that short-burnup cycles-and thus weapons-grade objectives-are underway.
D.            Closing the Weapons Cycle
a.            Plutonium Metal Conversion
•              Once separated, plutonium nitrate or oxide solutions undergo further chemical processing to yield plutonium metal-the form typically needed for nuclear warhead cores.
•              Pakistan’s specialized metallurgical and chemical labs oversee these final steps, ensuring the Pu meets the design specifications of the warhead.
b.            Warhead Assembly
•              After plutonium metal and high-purity tritium are secured, warhead components (e.g., implosion systems, neutron initiators) are brought together in specialized weaponization facilities.
•              This final assembly is presumably integrated with delivery vehicles-ranging from short-range ballistic missiles to cruise missiles-forming the operational deterrent force.
c.             Annual Production Outlook
•              Frequent reprocessing + short cycle ->  a steady, if modest, throughput of  60+kg WGPu annually and  130-140g T (under realistic conditions).
•              Enough to sustain 170 existing devices and produce 3-5 new warheads each year, reinforcing Pakistan’s incremental arsenal growth policy.

Together, spent fuel reprocessing and tritium recovery provide the crucial last links in Khushab’s nuclear supply chain. Only by extracting and refining the plutonium to metallic form-and concurrently purifying tritium-can the raw output of these heavy-water reactors be transformed into fully assembled, boosted nuclear warheads. This cycle underscores the role that reprocessing plants and specialized tritium-handling facilities play in underpinning Pakistan’s nuclear weapon capabilities.

Conclusion and Outlook
Over the course of these sections, we have traced how the Khushab nuclear complex in Pakistan accomplishes a dual mission of producing weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) and tritium (³H) through carefully managed reactor operations, specialized fuel choices, and systematic reprocessing. By leveraging heavy water moderators, uranium metal fuel, and lithium-6 doping, Khushab’s four heavy-water reactors can employ short irradiation cycles to secure high-purity plutonium (with ²³⁹Pu at 90 wt%) while also accumulating enough tritium to sustain and modestly expand its nuclear arsenal.

Kartikeya Sethi is the Founder CEO of Vel Atomics

The post NUCLEAR WEAPONS – How Pakistan Sustains Its N-weapons Supply Chain appeared first on IMR.

This has continued for more than a week as the huge number of servers across the institute were being sanitised and restored after the identification of the impacted servers. While a case of extortion and cyber terrorism was registered by the Intelligence Fusion and Strategic Operations (IFSO) unit of the Delhi Police on November 25, it denied that AIIMS had reported to them a demand for Rs 200 crores in cryptocurrency, as typically witnessed with a ransomware attack. So it becomes more critical to understand the motive behind the attack and do a review of cyber security preparedness across organisations and systems.

Cyber attacks on medical institutes are getting common and the pandemic has been a turning point as hackers and criminal syndicates realised the dependence of these institutes on digital systems to optimally manage medical functioning as well as store and handle large volumes of patient data, including their reports. In such a situation, both the aspects of security and privacy surface. This is why most countries define the health and medical sector as critical information (CI) infrastructure.

In India, while health is not specified directly as a CI, an organisation like AIIMS New Delhi could be counted as a “strategic and public enterprise” as it deals with crores of patients, including the top leadership of the country, and treats around 38 lakhs patients every year. It also handles and stores very sensitive medical research data. It is a natural target for cyber attackers and ransom seekers because the data available here is more precious than even oil. The pertinent point that arises is whether the thousands of servers and devices that connect to the system were handled with the highest cyber security standards and whether solutions and disaster recovery plans were in place. Also did the audits of cyber networks that are mandated by CERTIn show that everything was in order? Did AIIMS follow a cyber hygiene ecosystem similar to what it would want its patients to follow in the real world?

Typically such forms of attacks to keep networks from functioning after encrypting data, are carried out by ransomware-seeking entities and organisations are sent demands which are often negotiated and paid without informing law enforcement. In this case, both AIIMS and NIC have brought this outage to the public domain, reporting it on the first day. Since then, along with Delhi Police, multiple agencies are trying to investigate and identify the perpetrators and at the same time recovery and restoration efforts of the networks are on. The Delhi Police’s use of the provisions of section 66 (F) of the Information Technology Amendment Act 2008 identifying this incident as a case of cyber terrorism is significant and indicates a much larger ambit than a typical ransomware case. As cyber attacks on CIs have national security connotations also, one cannot lose sight of the fact that AIIMS servers had the critical health data of several individuals at the helm of the country’s government and the attack might have had a much larger motive than just garnering ransom.

While this incident is another wake-up call for organisations across sectors to shore up cyber security measures, it is also important to push and announce the national cyber security strategy that the prime minister mentioned a couple of years back. That strategy will be a guiding document to motivate and monitor the preparedness of cyber readiness of institutes and also enhance capacity on many fronts including forensics, accurate attribution and cooperation.

Significant budgets have to be allocated by various ministries to ensure that cyber security measures don’t remain the last priority. Likewise, the capacity enhancement for the National Critical Information Infrastructure Centre (NCIIPC) and CERTIn has to be undertaken to address the emerging sophisticated nature of threats and attacks and sectoral CERTs have to be set up for many areas including health. At the same time, international cooperation on countering cyber attacks has to gain more teeth beyond the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) meetings and the US-led Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) of 37 countries and the European Union.

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An interesting thing about Success Models is that those who pursue them, live in an illusion of ‘control’ and think that whatever they are getting is due to the pain and hard-work they are putting into it. Why? Because their schedule of ‘rewards’ is not fixed! It’s not that they are sure to be rewarded for each and every actions, sometimes they get nothing and sometimes a lot – this unpredictable nature of rewards make them more devoted pigeon, who try hard and thinks may be I have not pecked enough, it is for them there are some motivation quotes available in the market too, such as “No Pain, No Gain.” This is the idea of Variable Ratio Reinforcement theory, which in Skinner’s view yields maximum response rate and maximum sustainability!

We have experienced many such Success Models in the past, and today with Technology, producing these Success Models in any part of the world is only a matter of a few clicks!

Creator Economy – Early Signs

Over the last few weeks, some headlines are flashing in the mainstream media about the Tulsi Village of Chhattisgarh. The village is now called a YouTubers’ hub, YouTuber Hot Spot, and Content Capital of India, as one in every three residents of village is now a Youtuber, a member of Creator Economy. There are over 1000 Youtubers in the village with a population of approx 3000. And these days all national media outlets are filled with the Success Stories of this village. There are stories from an 85-year-old grandmother to a 15-year-old boy, from people leaving government jobs and farming types routine professions to earning the name, fame, and celebrity status. And the village is now promoted as a Model Village for the country! Some outlets have mentioned that every kid born in this village and its surrounding, now aims to be only a Youtuber in life. After all, those who used to earn 10-15 thousand in a month, today earning 35-40 thousand, and as the number of their subscribers/followers is ramping up, there is no limit to their Success!

The whole scheme of the creator economy looks like nothing less than a dream for the residents of this small village of Bharat, at least in numbers and narration. This is a classic case of a ‘Success Model’ in making!

Creator Economy has already started setting its footholds in our small towns and villages, the Tier II/Tier III towns and villages are their main target! One can say that this is a unique model of ‘AatmaNirbharta’, which is developed by, nurtured by, and promoted by foreign platforms!

Now the question comes how we will convince a kid growing up in these villages, to perform the real work in life, when everyone around him/her is earning not just 100 times more money but name/fame and celebrity status too. And what all it takes is a Smartphone and some ‘fakeness’ before the camera!

We cannot ignore the fact that it is our Small Towns and Villages which produces our farmers, our soldiers, our craftsmen, and our Industrial clusters, so giving the foreign tech platforms’ Creator Economy a free runway here is like leasing out the potential of Bharat! And if these viral trends of today become ‘Success Models’ of tomorrow, it will probably take another War of Independence in future to bring our people back on track!

Addiction is a neurological process, which can shattered the life of individuals, societies and nation and it is generally irreversible! Drug Addiction in some of our border states like Punjab is one of our key national security issues, and we have seen our rural Punjab falling in the grip of this menace before our eyes!

Now these platforms of virtual dopamine- are another man made calamity in making, gradually spreading in the villages and small towns, under the shadow of ‘Creator Economy.’

Our inability to not see these trends can be called nothing but our intentional or unintentional ‘Vision Blindness.’ And it’s a matter of National Security concern!

‘Pit bull’ Controversy -– Uttar Pradesh

A few days back, news about a gym trainer’s 80-plus-year-old mother getting killed by their American bully dog pit bull surfaced in the media. The way hundreds of dog/cat lovers, across social media platforms, started a campaign to stand with the killer dog, started showing empathy with the owner for keep showing love to his dog despite losing his mother, and the way entire focus of discussions shifted toward pit-bull’s emotions, it makes one to wonder that what caused our society to become so insensitive, inhuman and immoral! From day one, the young man was pretending to be more ‘unusually’ caring and loving toward his killer pet, and his whole focus was on showing himself ‘cool’ and saving his and his American pit-bull’s brand image.

After all, he was in the center of a viral trend, how can he pretend to be a normal human!

This is the reality of this token economy, where being viral is more important than living as a normal human!

“With nothing else to seek but attention, ordinary people tend to become assholes, because the biggest assholes get the most attention. This inherent bias toward assholedom flavors the action of all the other parts of the BUMMER (Behaviors of Users Modified and Made into Empires for Rent) machine,”

Jaron Lanier, author ”Ten Arguments for Deleting your Social Media Account Right Now” and creator of Virtual Reality.

If we take the above case as a symbolic reference then the young man represents our Gen Z and emerging Creators’ community, his pit bull represents American tech platforms, and the old mother can be seen as a symbol of our National Interests. With whom do you think our youngsters will stand in the future?

“The mob rushes in where individuals fear to tread.”

― B.F. Skinner, Walden Two

There are many such early warning signs related to Creator Economy that exists, and it will need a separate case study of its own for those signs alone.

But in a nutshell, Creator Economy is now turning into the most upgraded engine of producing new/improved Success Models! Bit by bit, Success Models that it produces are tapping our society, politics, economy, religion, spirituality, cultural and civilizational symbols, and every single aspect of our National Identity, is being covered!

Observing these early warning signs/ symptoms with a System thinking mindset is beyond the capacity of traditional strategic security frameworks! A fresh approach is needed. And perhaps, this time, we will have to borrow the 10th Man View in our National security related issues!

The 10th Man View of the National Security

“If nine of us who get the same information arrived at the same conclusion, it’s the duty of the tenth man to disagree. No matter how improbable it may seem. The tenth man has to start thinking about the assumption that the other nine are wrong.”

This popular dialog is from the movie ‘World War Z’ is basically about an alternative method of intelligence estimates (also called critical method) developed by the team that was formed to analyze the intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War (1973). The logic behind this approach was based on the idea of “refutation” not verification or human tendency to generalize from the experience, and it says that: “from all the hypotheses that can explain what is happening, one must choose not necessarily the one that is better supported by information, but the one that has no information that refutes it,” as shared by Major Gen. (Res.) Professor Isaac Ben-Israel (a member of that team) in his paper ‘Philosophy and Methodology of Intelligence.’

It is important here to note that Israel is an example of the western bloc’s traditional partnership. It’s a nation whose dependency on the western world is crucial for its existence, in the most complex region and among the most complex neighbors in the world! But despite that, when it comes to their National Security, they work on two key doctrines: the 10th Man View and Rise and Kill First principles. No strategic calculations can stop them for not pursuing that. So this idea that bearing the burden of US Partnership is more important than our National Security priorities belongs to an obsolete outlook. It’s a moral hurdle that needs to be discarded!

Some of the early signs of the creator economy that we discussed above, are also based on this 10th Man View! At a moment, when everyone around seems becoming an active participant in the Creator Economy and its Success Models, then it is the job of a 10th Man, to suspect and reject them!

[Note: this article is an introduction to this view; we will continue to explore case by case situation/ trends/ early signs of technology shift, with a 10th Man’s perspective in the upcoming set of articles]

Invisible Success Models – A Case of Bharat

A unique case about Bharat is that more than 85 percent of our people are patriotic and possess a great love for their nation, which reflected on all major events/calamities, local or global, and it is this core element of our instinct that as a nation, we always bounce back stronger!

Now the question comes if there are numerous visible Success Models of outside forces around us, then what happens to those who reject them? Who have faith in everything that belongs to their mother land- what references exist for them? How they are motivated to follow a path of no rewards, and no return? Reason, it is generally a blank space for them, which one can fill as per his/her motivation! So, from where this motivation really comes from? How that blank space is so special than any reward/recognition? And why no Skinnerian Model works for them?

The one-line answer can be it cannot be defined- those who pursue it, know it!

But if we have to put it in words, then we can recall a small story, which our current NSA Ajit Doval once shared in a talk. He said that once there was a grand Banyan tree (Vat Vriksha) in a forest. As the time passed, it got encircled by many weeds and small trees (Khar-patwar) here and there. At one time, the presence of those small trees and weeds expanded to an extent that they overshadowed the Banyan Tree itself, and soon the entire existence of the Tree turned blurred, almost invisible, some people started saying that this area belongs to only those small trees and weeds, Banyan tree never existed here! But the truth is that the Banyan tree was always there. It stood there for ages; and will stand forever! Few small trees and weeds could never uproot the Tree from its roots, what all they can do is that they can overshadow its existence for some time!

That Banyan Tree, the Vat Vriksha, represents the Invisible Success Models of Bharat, which are planted by, nurtured by our great visionary ancestors, and to see their Invisible Success Models, the need is to cut the weeds that surround it, with the sharpness of self-consciousness and wisdom! The Tree also represents our national cultural civilization identity, the roots of which are so deep down in the earth, that even we have no idea how deep they are! Our job is to clean the weeds and small trees down, so that Tree shines with full glory before our young generation, and we need to ensure that it is from this Tree they derive their inspiration to put Bharat back on the throne of Superpower, not from the Artificial Success Models of outside forces!

When such a day will come, when Bharat will start identifying, acknowledging and working on their own Success Models, when we will start choosing our own problems, challenges, and even our enemies, that will be called the first Shankh Naad of a powerful Bharat!

Conclusion

“In such things as War, the errors which proceed from the spirit of benevolence are the worst!”

Karl Von Clausewitz

Whenever the issue of tech-related challenges comes, the most dominating thought in our security establishment is that we must be aware and educate the people! This idea that aware and enlightened people, can fight their own battle often comes as the first reaction in everyone’s mind, and the whole process of figuring out solutions ends with this conclusion. We cannot forget that there was a time when a similar Educate and Awareness campaign model was presented for our J&K Terrorism-related challenges too! A whole lobby in Lutyens’ Delhi, developed, nurtured, and promoted those false promises and those fancy solutions, and previous governments, unfortunately, gave enough space to those recommendations in their policies too (when ‘Pyara Gulshan Apna’ kind of song were used to frequently aired in Doordarshan around the mid 90s). Those models cost us so dearly!

It is only after 2014, when the outlook and methods of our National Security challenges response changed when we adopted an action-oriented mindset, implemented needed policies/reforms in that direction, and most importantly when we reflected the right leadership intent, only then the whole situation started improving and today we can say that we are genuinely on the path of peace, prosperity, and security in the region!

Something similar is the case with Education and Awareness solutions to tech-related challenges! An educated and aware public can do nothing that can stop the Tsunami of improvisations coming from an engine, which is based on not some technical skills/competencies but on the craft of psychologists and behavioral experts! In one line, expecting common people to fight their own battle in this domain- is an unfair demand!

On a global level, Bharat, which is ready to lead in all major problems, from climate change to terror to food and fuel/energy security, always prefers to present itself as a mute follower on matters related to technology! A country that believes in the ‘Let noble thoughts come to us from all sides,’ mantra since Rig Veda times, surprisingly turn deaf/ dumb on Technology related challenges! The reason for this can be anything but not our inability, or lack of intellect.

There are many such discussions about the trajectory of technological/ psychological innovations of our time, that are going on all over the world, and a majority of these debates are going on at the HQs of these very technologies, their home countries themselves! Today, there is a whole lobby of Silicon Valley’s Hippies (the founding members, ex-executives of Big Tech corporations, scientists, and inventors) that exists, who are on a campaign to find a global solution for the menace that their products have created, and are in search for a human-centric perspective, which rests with the Bharat!

The world is looking at Bharat to provide a perspective, and a template to follow and this is the right time to introduce our Human Intelligence improvisation as the Success models to the world!

READ ALSO: 10th Man View of National Security (Part-1)

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Technology of Behaviour and Success Models

Technology dominance is a misleading term! Some of the most impactful innovations of our time are not ‘technological,’ they are ‘psychological,’ crafted by psy-chologists/ behaviorists of Silicon Valley labs!

Ideas after experimenting successfully on rats and pigeons are offered to the social media animals (a bit higher class of species), to confirm their validity/effectiveness. Then our responses are monitored/ recorded in real-time so that improvements/ enhancements can be made for better ‘conditioning’ in the future release! It’s an endless loop of behavior modification, and there is no way to turn it off!

If these visuals sound unusual and uncomfortable, then we need to look at what one of the most radical behaviorists of the 20th century, B.F. Skinner was doing with his ‘Skinner Box’ in the middle of World War II.

Skinner and a ‘crackpot’ Idea

One fine day, an American psychologist received funding from the U.S. Military to implement his ‘crackpot idea’ (as he referred to it) to set up the Project Pigeon, a proposal to use living organisms (pigeons in this case) to guide missiles.

Two of his programs, a research program during World War II called “Project Pigeon” and a peacetime continuation of that program called “ORCON” (short form for Organic Control), obtained sponsorship from U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. While working on the project, he realized the power of ‘behavior shaping’ methods, which in simple words means rewarding an animal for a desired behavior/response and punishing him for doing the opposite.

Shortly, Project Pigeon got suspended, but the idea was captured and implemented in developing the electronic guided systems! Encouraged by the response to his crazy ideas, Skinner continued his experiments to test his ‘ideas of behavior shaping’ on rats, pigeons, and other testable animals and developed a doctrine called ‘Technology of Behavior,’ which is also known as a technology of behavior modification.

Skinner box and the idea of ‘Conditioning’

“Almost all major problems involve human behavior, and they cannot be solved by physical and biological technology alone. What is needed is a technology of human behavior.” (B.F. Skinner, Beyond Freedom and Dignity, 1971)

In Skinner Box – a soundproof enclosure with a food dispenser, that a rat can operate by pressing a lever or a pigeon by pecking a key, Skinner used to experiment with the animal’s behavior through ‘contingencies of reinforcement’ – circumstances under which desired behavior is rewarded to make sure it will be repeated.

The behavior he demanded from those pigeons/ rats was weird and unnatural for them, such as he used to make them walk by making figure eight, by rewarding them with food at some moments. And the process, as explained by Skinner, goes like this: “I watch a hungry pigeon carefully. When he makes a slight clockwise turn he’s instantly rewarded for it. After he eats, he immediately tries it again. Then I wait for more of a turn and reinforce again. Within two or three minutes, I can get any pigeon to make a full circle.” Through this process, what he called operant ‘conditioning’ or technology of ‘behavior,’ he taught pigeons to dance and to play Ping Pong too. And one of his partners in those experiments got so excited that he left his full-time psychology career and started a commercial behavior business for animals!

One of the key discoveries from those experiments, in Skinner’s view, was the ‘schedule of reinforcements/rewards,’ and based on that, he devised different ways of delivering rewards, as per the response rate of animals(pigeons/ rats). He insisted that “a procedure in which behavior is reinforced or rewarded after scheduled but unpredictable time durations yields the most stable rate of response,” which in simple words means that if an animal knows he will get some rewards for his particular behavior but the timing for that is not fixed, it is unpredictable, then he can be tempted to do more, as long as the person who controls the box and lever of rewards wants! This is how all gambling/ casino system works and they are highly addictive too.

If it can work for rats or pigeons then why can’t it work on humans too, with this fantasy in his mind, he invented several other devices too, i.e. a cumulative recorder, an air crib for training infants, a teaching machine to automate the task programmed learning, and a verbal summator, etc. It is said that he went to an extent of performing those experiments on his kids!

Skinner aspired to build such a Skinner box for the whole of humanity, where people’s behavior can be shaped and controlled by a few and chosen people of the world! But who are those few people in his views? It’s a question that he never bothered to answer! Later, Skinner wrote a sci-fi novel called “Weldon Two” (1948) where he visualized a perfectly socially engineered society, working as per his principles of operant conditioning!

“I’ve had only one idea in my life…to put it as bluntly as possible – it is the idea of having my own way, the control of human behavior…I remember the rage I used to feel when a prediction went awry. I could have shouted at the subjects of my experiments, Behave, damn you! Behave as you ought!”

– B.F. Skinner’s novel Walden Two, 1948 (the dialogue is from a character in the novel, who is also an alter ego of the author).

It is interesting that this radical behaviorist who denied the idea of ‘free-will’ and independent thinking (he used to call them illusion), propagated the thesis of ‘conditioning’ human actions like those of rats and pigeons, and formulated devices of social engineering- is the Man behind the ‘User Experience’ of the world’s first computer network and the first social media platform (PLATO system) too!

As Skinner mentioned in his paper ‘Pigeons in a Pelican,’- “One virtue in crackpot ideas is that they breed rapidly and their progeny show extraordinary mutations.”

In typical western hypocrisy, B.F. Skinner emerged as one of the most ridiculed as well as most acclaimed behaviorists of his time! It seems that his ideas were criticized in public but implemented in private, particularly in all the Tech innovations of the post-war phase! And interestingly, to see whether Skinner was successful in his experiments or not, one needs to simply look around, Skinner box is already in action!

How dopamine-driven social platforms work and how they exploit the vulnerability of human behavioral aspects is now an open fact! But that does not stop people from indulging in them! After all, a pigeon inside the Skinner box has no ‘liberty’ to choose, other than constantly pecking, either for reward or to avoid punishments! Look at the state of User Experience today, terms like ‘User Friendly,’ ‘Customer Focused,’ or YES/NO buttons are obsolete ideas in the world of auto-play, auto-correct, auto-post, auto-feed, auto-update, and auto ‘Everything,’ people are denied even fraction of seconds to decide what they want to see/ hear or read, it’s like feeding whatever the box owner wants!

The business model of these ‘psychological’ cum tech innovations is based on three key things: Rewards – Like/share/re-tweets/followers/impressions/branding and other symbolic items with some real monetary benefits too, Punishments – shadow ban, complete ban, downgrading, false ratings, suspension, follower reduction, de-branding, etc., and Feedback-Monitoring response/ movements in real-time and customizing settings accordingly, everything which tech corporations sum up in one word ‘Engagement,’ and these are the similar kind of components on which Skinner’s Technology of Behavior was weaved around!

Within a few years of his research, Skinner’s box launched in a new avatar – the ‘World Wide Web,’ and the rest is history!

Today, India is the most online country in the world, an average Indian spends approx 6.36 hours a day online, which is close to a full day work shift! Now the question that we need to ask is how long can we afford to watch our people and societies being ‘conditioned’ by some devoted disciples of Skinner, sitting in Silicon Valley, Harvard, or at the campus of the American Psychological Association?

It is important here to note that all these experiments were going in parallel to the efforts of developing the “Information Warfare” doctrine by the US Military establishment, and their main theme was to ‘Target’ and ‘attack’ the Will of the enemy or enemy nation! So if in Skinner’s argument, ‘Free-Will’ is nothing but an illusion, then what US military was planning to attack? And why do they invest so heavily in subverting/ conquering something which does not exist?

‘Success Models’ – A Serious Business

“War belongs not to the province of Arts and Sciences…it would be better instead of comparing it with any Art, to liken it to business competition, which is also a conflict of human interests and activities;” Karl von Clausewitz

Developing, promoting, and nurturing ‘Success Models’ is a serious business for the powerful nations of the world!

Think about this, what would be the response of those rats/pigeons, which were not inside the ‘box’ but were watching their community members earning some easy ‘rewards’ (food in that case) only by displaying a particular kind of behavior, repeatedly! For them, the whole process occurs as nothing but a Success Model, a path to sure Success!

To explore the idea of Success Models, let’s take an example from our colonial past!

Colonial Past – with whom we fought?

Today, Bharat is on a mission to free itself from all the symbols of the colonial past! The historic images of Netaji’s Statue getting its deserved place at India Gate filled the hearts of all Bhartiya with immense pride and honor!

But this is a moment to take a pause and introspect too. Through different creative improvisations, we are often reminded that we fought with the British for our freedom and dignity. But those visuals sometimes haunt us! A mighty and ancient civilization like Bharat (and an economic superpower of that time too) fought with a bunch of British invaders, for over 200 years, this is not an easy-to-grasp fact! So the question comes, with whom we fought?

There are many dimensions to view our ‘Freedom Struggle’ with the British and all of them have their relevance in different contexts. But what makes us wonder is that- how after the first war of Independence in 1857, which started with a straight mission and slogan ‘Maro Feringhee ko,’ our fight for Independence streatched for another 100 years? Why it took us so long to reclaim our freedom and dignity back?

We fought not with the British but with their Success Models!

Some economic/ political Success Models were created, nurtured and promoted by British in our land, that initially appealed to our people, and they started participating in them, for different interests, a majority of which were not economical alone, but behavioral/psychological too. Through some rewards, some gains, and some benefits, our people were ‘conditioned’ to an extent that living under the instructions of foreign masters was more attractive, rewarding and convenient to them than old days of local rulers! The loyalty to British was more rew

“Oh Martyrs…say that the only cause of the defeat of Hindusthan was Hindusthan herself, that shaking away the slumber of centuries, the mother rose to hit the foe, but while her right hand was striking the Feringhee dead, her left hand struck, alas, not the enemy, but her forehead! So she staggered and fell back into the inevitable swoon of 50 years.”

(‘Letters from Andaman’ Veer Savarkar, while recalling the martyrs of 1857–

First War of Independence)

READ ALSO: 10th Man View of National Security (Part-2)

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After these official accounts were withheld in  India, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Twitter to restore the accounts with immediate access. This development comes shortly after the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting blocked 16 news channels on YouTube, including 6 based in Pakistan, for ‘spreading misinformation related to India’s national security, foreign relations, and public order’.

The Ministry said these YouTube channels were spreading false, unverified information to create panic, incite communal disharmony, and disturb public order in India. The blocked accounts include six Pakistan-based and 10 India-based YouTube news channels, having a cumulative viewership of over 68 crores.

YouTube channels based in Pakistan were found to have been used in a coordinated manner to post fake news about India on various subjects such as the Indian Army, Jammu, and Kashmir, and India’s foreign relations in the light of the situation in Ukraine among others, the ministry said.

Pakistan’s disinformation campaign

Earlier, India had called out Pakistan for propagating fake news through social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram. Despite being frequently lambasted by the global community due to its violation of human rights, Pakistan carries on with its propaganda to diminish India on the world stage.

Apart from the government accounts in Pakistan, it was revealed that many fake accounts created by Pakistanis are running hashtags with an agenda to target India’s prestigious institutions.

These accounts blatantly spread disinformation with the sole purpose of defaming India. After pushing the agenda, they change their username. All those who were fuelling this agenda campaign seemed to be copying each others’ content to escalate the fake narrative.

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India’s neutral stand is mainly because all the key protagonists in the crisis are India’s close allies. Hence, India’s unaligned and diplomatic efforts. Possible support to Russia might hamper India’s relations with the NATO countries, including USA.

India’s stand on Ukraine has been appreciated within the country and by other countries, notably Pakistan, whose prime minister Imran Khan too appreciated India’s role and policies.

India-Russia relationship still continues to remain strong. Russia has been a significant supplier of military equipment. India is also procuring the S-400 Triumf Missile from Russia, despite strong US opposition.  A new ten-year defence pact between the two countries was being discussed. India-Russia annual trade is also worth about $10 billion. India’s support to Ukraine may mean Russia developing stronger ties with China and Pakistan. That can be a real-time threat to India’s national security.

Ukraine has consistently taken anti-Indian position in the United Nations, be it in terms of voting against India in UNSC after 1998 nuclear tests, voting for UN intervention in Kashmir after abrogation of Article 370 or in terms of selling military equipment to Pakistan to use against India.

India wants de-escalation of the crisis, but only through arbitration or conciliation. Thus, considering all the angles to this crisis, India is adopting the strategy to solve this dispute keeping in mind that any country’s national interest is above the overall global interest.

The US has managed to get most countries on its side, and the United Nations resolution condemning the Russian invasion has been supported by many countries. Countries like India chose to abstain from the vote due to a strong and continuing linkage with Russia, and due to considerations of what such a vote will imply to the geopolitics of the region.

The immediate impact is, of course, adverse due to high oil prices and investor nervousness. India has a very large oil deficit and also a current account deficit. The latter needs a continuous supply of foreign investor dollars to plug that deficit. On food security, India is on a strong footing. Its military capabilities are significantly inferior to China, mainly due to a resource constraint. But the level of preparedness and the advantage of terrain means that the asymmetry is considerably reduced.

The US will soon have to think about the more important geopolitical alignment and strategy around its bigger rival, China. So far, the Quad formation (with the US, India, Japan and Australia) has not delivered any tangible benefits to India. But the strategic importance of India could grow. It is conceivable that in a new configuration, the Americans will value an alignment with India more than the reverse. India, too, has a strong trade and investment relationship already. If its domestic economy shows steady and consistent high growth, it can become important to the US when dealing with a strong China.

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng attacked the Quad thus, “No country should pursue its so-called absolute security at the expense of other countries’ security.” He drew a parallel between the situation in Ukraine — according to him, a result of “the NATO strategy of eastward expansion” — and the several provocations perceived by Beijing in the Indo-Pacific. The analogy does not hold. Amid recent geopolitical developments, India’s foreign policy priorities and the ties fostered with members of the Quad are holding fast.

The Quad is a response to China’s rising ambitions, which have manifested in the form of occupying islands and trying to control sea lanes in the Indo-Pacific, as well as its activities along the Line of Actual Control with India.

Both the Japanese and Australian prime ministers reportedly discussed the situation in Ukraine with prime minister Narendra Modi, and did not insist that India echo their position.

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The list of banned apps include – Sweet Selfie HD, Beauty Camera – Selfie Camera, Garena Free Fire – Illuminate, Viva Video Editor, Tencent Xriver, Onmyoji Arena, AppLock and Dual Space Lite. India has blocked 321 apps since border tensions with China in May 2020.

In June last year, India banned 59 Chinese mobile applications including the widely-used social media platforms such as TikTok, WeChat, and Helo citing a threat to the nation’s sovereignty and security. The apps were banned under Section 69A of the Information Technology Act, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology said.

The first round of bans was announced in June 2020, days after 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with Chinese troops at Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh. The tension had escalated following a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley on June 15 that year.

The eastern Ladakh border standoff between the Indian and Chinese militaries erupted on May 5, 2020, following a violent clash in the Pangong Lake areas and both sides gradually enhanced their deployment by rushing in tens of thousands of soldiers as well as heavy weaponry.

“It is good if we are attacked by the enemy, since it proves that we have drawn a clear line of demarcation between the enemy and ourselves. It is still better if the enemy attacks us wildly and paints us as utterly black and without a single virtue; it demonstrates that we have not only drawn a clear line of demarcation between the enemy and ourselves but achieved a great deal in our work.” Thus spake Chairman Mao. China is no longer in Mao’s thrall and follows Xi Jinping thought these days. Still, the notion that it is good to be attacked by the enemy retains its essential sense: it shows you make an impact that calls for countermeasures.

True, the initial ban that India imposed on a clutch of smartphone apps by Chinese companies, including TikTok, the short video app that is both a threat to US tech companies dominant in the business and a shield for them against the charge of unassailable monopoly, did not cause any serious damage to Chinese business. But, expanding the scope of the bans and persisting with them do, it would appear, make an impact.

At a press conference on 17 February, the spokesman for China’s commerce ministry, Gao Feng, expressed concern about India’s ban on Chinese apps.

saying that it hoped India would treat all foreign investors, including Chinese firms, in a transparent, fair and non-discriminatory manner. “We hope India can take concrete measures to maintain the sound development momentum of bilateral economic and trade cooperation,” Gao Feng, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, told a press conference.

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Chief of Army Staff Gen MM Naravane, on January 12, replying to a question submitted in advance, said, “We are not averse to the demilitarization of the glacier but the pre-condition for that is to accept the AGPL. Pakistan has to accept what are their positions and what are ours, and both of us have to sign on the dotted line before any kind of disengagement takes place.”

Stalemate in Talks

There have been 13 rounds of talks on the demilitarisation of Siachen, the last one at Rawalpindi in June 2012. After almost a ten-year hiatus, Gen Naravane’s statement shows that there is no progress.

India has been insisting on the marking of the current positions that the Army holds on maps that are to be ratified by both sides. This will establish Indian territorial control along the Saltoro range. On the other hand, Pakistan has been reluctant to authenticate Indian positions as it will legitimise India’s ‘illegal act’ of violating the Simla Agreement by occupying an area that was under Pakistan’s administrative control. The crux of the matter is that neither side is willing to make any territorial compromise.

After the fifth round of talks in June 1989, the joint statement stated: “There was agreement by both sides to work towards a comprehensive settlement, based on redeployment of forces to reduce the chance of conflict.” This was a direct result of Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto’s political intervention in attempting to find a solution on Siachen.

The sixth round in 1992 carried forward the discussions of 1989, and this was the second time that an agreement was almost reached. However, there was no political acceptance by then-Prime Minister Narsimha Rao to ratify the agreement. In 2006, a draft agreement was drawn up for a phased, mutual withdrawal and joint monitoring of a demilitarised zone at Siachen.

Importance of Siachen

Lt Gen V R Raghavan, who served as the Director-General of Military Operations, wrote in his book Siachen: Conflict without End: “It is apparent that neither India nor Pakistan secures a strategic advantage by contesting the possession of the Saltoro range. Neither also faces a military threat to the territory it occupies in Jammu and Kashmir from over the Saltoro range…A strategic veneer is given to what is actually a political necessity for continuing the conflict.”

On the other hand, the area is bound by Pakistan to the west, the Chinese Shaksgam valley to the North, and the Sub Sector North (SSN) of Ladakh to the east, where the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is confronting the Indian Army in the Depsang plains. If military collusion between Pakistan and China is to occur, this is the area where it is most likely to happen.

Shaksgam Valley

While Gen Naravane spelt out the Indian Army’s position on the issue, the matter has become far more complicated for national security planners with Pakistan and China proposing a road connecting Yarkand in Sinkiang to Muzaffarabad in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir through Shaksgam Valley, a 5193-square-kilometres territory that Pakistan illegally ceded to China in 1963. The Shaksgam Valley lies in the trans-Karakoram range watershed.

Area maps clearly show that Rimo Glacier, Teram Shehr Glacier and the Siachen Glacier are located within the Indian union territory of Ladakh. The adjoining areas of these glaciers are PLA dominated territories like Shaksgam Valley and Yarkand Valley in the north and PoK in the west in addition to the warlike deployments by the PLA in Aksai Chin opposite Daulat Beg Oldi sector in the east. The PLA has a history of aggressive transgressions into what the Army calls sub-sector north and it is adamant in blocking the Indian Army patrols in Depsang Bulge south of DBO.

The proposed Muzaffarabad-Shaksgam-Yarkand Valley road will not only boost the military interoperability between two iron brothers but also pose a two-front threat to Indian forces in the sub-sector north.

The Indian Army controls the Saltoro Ridge that provides ingress into Siachen Glacier since 1984 post-Operation Meghdoot. Siachen Glacier is located in the eastern Karakoram range, just northeast of NJ 9842, where the Line of Control between India and Pakistan ends.

The military situation in the area is quite precarious with China building all-weather access to Pakistan via Karakoram Pass, just 18 km from DBO plateau, and trying to militarily impose India rejected 1959 line on the LAC in Ladakh.

Historical Background

Siachen is a part of the former state of Jammu and Kashmir (now divided into two Union territories — Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh), which legally acceded to India on October 26-27, 1947 and has since then been its integral part. This was endorsed by every political party in the land, and both Houses of the Indian Parliament passed an unanimous resolution on February 22, 1994 that the State of Jammu and Kashmir has been, is and shall be an integral part of India!

It was in the later years of the 1970s that the India side picked up activities by Pakistan in the Siachen area, such as sponsoring international mountaineering expeditions. This would have implied that Pakistan had jurisdiction over this territory. This was also the time when official US maps began to show the LoC as extending right up to the Karakoram Pass on the India-China boundary, which would, in effect, imply that the Siachen glacier fell under the actual jurisdiction of Pakistan. The Chinese followed suit. As a result, roughly 2,300 sq km of territory in this glacier zone came to be shown as under Pakistani control. In response to this encroachment, the Indian Army launched what came to be known as Operation Meghdoot, in 1984, to occupy the Siachen-Saltoro ridge. Pakistani attempts to dislodge the Indian troops from the heights did not succeed though they did occupy and fortify the lower reaches on their side.

Comments

Brookings scholar Stephen Cohen said: “Siachen is a conflict between two bald men over a comb.” The cost of Siachen expedition over the years has been around 2,150 soldiers killed and 5,000 persons wounded on both sides with an estimated cost of roughly $1 million a day.

Any move to withdraw from our territory will also be a violation of the Constitution by India’s rulers. The reality is, Siachen can’t be a discussion point except for its acceptance and recognition as an integral/inviolable part of India.

In the best of times, India and Pakistan were engaged in what was known as a Composite Dialogue, the agenda for which contained eight items. Siachen and Sir Creek were two issues on which early agreement was possible.

It is true that the AGPL delineation had been a major sticking point in reaching an agreement on Siachen. However, this matter had been resolved between the two sides, first during bilateral defence secretary-level talks in 1992 and then subsequently in foreign secretary-level talks in 2006. These agreements could not be formalised and implemented due to political reasons.

Can Pakistan or China be relied upon for their diplomatic assurances?

It would be militarily prudent for Indian Army to put the demilitarization of Siachen on the back-burner till such time the Chinese PLA agrees to respect the Ladakh LAC and restores April 2020 status quo ante as well as allow India unhindered rights to patrol Depsang Bulge and Charding Nullah Junction (CNJ) in Demchok sector.

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