China continues to advance its global capabilities to confront the United States and its allies across the diplomatic, information, military, and economic domains. China’s President Xi Jinping will continue to oversee a whole-of-government effort to better prepare China for competition with the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, and focused efforts to undermine popular and political support for U.S. military alliances and security partnerships.

This year, Beijing will watch Washington carefully for changes in policy and probably is preparing measures to deter, defeat, and retaliate against any U.S. moves it perceives as intending to disrupt China’s diplomatic, economic, and security objectives. China’s officials also will seek opportunities to drive wedges between the United States and its allies and partners. Along its periphery, China is likely to continue multidomain pressure campaigns against the Philippines, Taiwan, and other nations resisting China’s territorial claims. China will seek opportunities to exploit narratives that criticize Washington’s ability to manage crisis and conflict. These efforts are aimed at presenting China as a more responsible global leader.

Military Modernization and Spending

China is rapidly advancing its military modernization and developing capabilities across all warfare domains that could enable it to seize Taiwan by force, to better project power in the western Pacific, and to disrupt U.S. attempts to maintain presence or intervene in conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s leaders are stressing the imperative of meeting key military transformation targets set for 2027 and 2035. These milestones seek to align the transformation of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with its other national modernization efforts, which include advancing “a new type of international relations”, being actively involved in “global governance”, and unification with Taiwan.

• In 2025, China announced a nominal 5.2 percent annual military budget increase to $247 billion. However, China’s actual defense spending is significantly higher, following 2024 defense spending of an estimated $304-$377 billion. These figures include publicly omitted defense spending such as research and development and defense industrial base subsidies.

• The PLA increased military pressure on Taiwan last year following the election of a new president. In April, the PLA conducted large-scale drills in the waters and airspace around Taiwan that included an aircraft carrier battle group to warn Taiwan. The PLA has demonstrated an improving ability to conduct near-simultaneous, geographically dispersed exercises. In particular, China’s Joint Sword series of exercises showed that the PLA is advancing its capabilities to blockade Taiwan. The PLA Navy (PLAN) executed its first dual aircraft carrier exercise in the South China Sea (SCS) last year, demonstrating a growing ability and capacity to project power across the region.

• China announced it had realigned the PLA’s Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistic Support Force directly under the Central Military Commission, which includes President Xi Jinping and other top military leaders. This realignment reinforces the importance PLA leaders place on space, cyberoperations, and EW as asymmetric weapons to paralyze adversaries’ information systems during a conflict.

•  PLA Air Force and PLA naval aviation forces continue to evolve into more technologically advanced, effective, and capable forces proficient at conducting joint operations. This past year, China unveiled the J-35A, a fifth-generation fighter that can operate from PLAN aircraft carriers.

• The PLA Rocket Force has fielded approximately 900 short-range ballistic missiles (compared to 1,000 in 2023), 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles (compared to 1,000 in 2023), 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (similar to 2023), 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (compared to 350 in 2023), and 400 ground-launched cruise missiles (compared to 300 in 2023).

Despite these military advances, China continues to be either unwilling or unable to ensure safe operations in international air and maritime domains, which poses a threat to U.S. and international air and sea traffic operating in the area. Last year, a PLA J-10 fighter deployed flares in the path of an Australian Seahawk helicopter operating in support of UN-imposed sanctions against North Korea in the Yellow Sea.

President Xi continues to publicly express concern about disloyalty and corruption in the PLA’s ranks, and in 2024 a long-serving admiral in charge of enforcing loyalty and ideological compliance across the PLA was removed and investigated for corruption. The dismissal resembles the abrupt removal in 2023 of China’s defense minister and senior PLA Rocket Force officers, reportedly because of corruption surrounding weapons procurement and nuclear modernization. In mid-March, press outlets identified a vice-chairman of China’s Military Commission-Gen He Weidong-as another senior target of anti-corruption investigations.

Nuclear Capabilities

China’s nuclear warhead stockpile probably has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads. We estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030-much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels for faster response times-and will continue growing its force until at least 2035. This supports the PLA’s objective to achieve a more diverse nuclear force, comprising systems including low-yield precision strike missiles and ICBMs with multi-megaton yields, to provide a broader range of nuclear response options.

• China’s approach to using nuclear force is based on PLA “deterrence” of an enemy first strike and “counterstrike” against an adversary’s military capability, population, and economy when deterrence fails. China’s current force modernization suggests that it seeks to have the ability to inflict far greater levels of overwhelming damage to an adversary in a nuclear exchange.

Space and Counterspace Capabilities

China’s space-related activities aim to erode U.S. space superiority and exploit a perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems to deter and counter intervention in a regional military conflict. China is investing in space systems that enhance its own Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting (C5ISRT) capabilities. China will continue to launch a variety of satellites that substantially enhance its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities; field advanced communications satellites able to transmit large amounts of data; improve its space-based positioning, navigation, and timing capabilities; and deploy new weather and oceanographic satellites.

•  China possesses more than 1,000 satellites, including about 500 remote-sensing/ISR satellites, second only to the United States. By 2030, Chinese companies plan to launch thousands of satellites as megaconstellations, which are intended to compete with Starlink as alternative providers of global internet and secure communications.

China continues to dedicate significant resources to ensure its ability to disrupt, damage, and destroy adversary space capabilities. The PLA has operational anti-satellite missiles intended to target satellites in low Earth orbit and probably is developing more advanced capabilities to destroy satellites in geosynchronous orbit. China also has developed a variety of electronic warfare systems, including mobile jammers, almost certainly dedicated to denying an adversary’s satellite communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities during conflict. China has fielded multiple satellites, such as the Shijian-21 in geosynchronous Earth orbit, capable of disrupting or destroying other on-orbit satellites.

Cyberspace Capabilities

China-led cyberintrusions, including by the PLA Cyberspace Force and the Ministry of State Security, are targeting information networks around the world, including U.S. Government systems, to steal intellectual property and data and develop access into sensitive networks. China very likely will continue to use its cyberspace capabilities to support intelligence collection against U.S. academic, economic, military, and political targets and to exfiltrate sensitive information from defense infrastructure and research institutes to gain economic and military advantage.

•   Since early 2024, the U.S. Government has publicly identified efforts by China’s cyberactors to pre-position for cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure. China probably would use its access to attack these systems if it viewed a major conflict with the United States as imminent.

Taiwan and South China Sea

China is likely to continue its campaign of diplomatic, information, military, and economic pressure on Taiwan to advance its long-term objective of unification with Taiwan, deter any move by Taiwan toward independence, and test the United States’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

China possesses a variety of military options to coerce Taiwan, including increasing the frequency and scope of China’s military presence operations, air and maritime blockades, seizure of Taiwan’s smaller outlying islands, joint firepower strikes, and a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan. China appears willing to defer seizing Taiwan by force as long as it calculates unification ultimately can be negotiated, the costs of forcing unification continue to outweigh the benefits, and its stated redlines have not been crossed by Taiwan or its partners and allies.

China has contested the Philippines’ presence in the South China Sea, particularly at Second Thomas Shoal, despite a 2016 international tribunal ruling in favor of the Philippines. The PLAN, China Coast Guard, and maritime militia sought to assert China’s perceived sovereignty by using water cannons and non-destructive lasers against Philippine ships and aircraft and conducting dangerous and aggressive maneuvering, resulting in collisions with Philippine counterparts.

These aggressive responses by the PLA are likely to continue during the next year, creating conditions that risk escalating conflict in the region.

Global Military Operations

China is improving PLA systems to operate further from China for longer periods and establishing a more robust overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to sustain deployments at greater distances, efforts that can potentially threaten U.S. global operations or international commerce during a conflict. China is pursuing a mixture of military logistics models-including bases with garrisoned forces, host-nation shared facilities, exclusive PLA logistics facilities collocated with commercial infrastructure, or ad-hoc access to commercial infrastructure abroad-to support China’s overseas military logistics needs.

•  In 2024, the PLA conducted a highly scripted exercise in Tanzania, representing China’s largest-ever military exercise in Africa. This exercise demonstrated the PLA’s ability to project power globally with the deployment of more than 1,000 troops by sea and air.

•  This year, on 5 April 25, the Cambodian Prime Minister and a PLA delegation inaugurated the Joint Logistics and Training Center at Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. China’s Ministry of National Defense insists that the center is to support joint operations in areas like counterterrorism, disaster prevention, humanitarian assistance, and training. Preceding the official opening at Ream, the PLA continuously stationed two naval combatants-rotated a total of three times-at the facility’s pier. China probably also has considered establishing PLA military facilities in Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Gabon, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan.

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8 Feb 2024: Taiwan Straits

On 8 Feb 2024, China commenced a series of low-level air and naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait. These gradually increased in scope and scale. By early Mar 24, the PLAAF was sending almost 100 aircraft a day into the ADIZ (air defence identification zone) of Taiwan. The PLA Navy was regularly practising live fire drills in the waters around Taiwan. There were planted articles in the Chinese media saying these military exercises were to deter hotheads in Taiwan from making a Declaration of Independence. Solid intelligence had been received that this was likely. An announcement was made about a major amphibious exercise scheduled for mid or end-Apr that year. The aim of these exercises was to de-sensitise the Taiwanese defence forces as well as the Americans to high levels of military activity. In mid-Mar 24, a former presidential candidate made an impassioned speech condemning the president of Taiwan. He asked for the president’s impeachment and demanded that Taiwan declare Independence forthwith. He screamed, “China is trying to scare us with these endless war drills. This weak government is caving in. Enough is enough. ROC is a sovereign, democratic state. We declare our Independence from the hegemonistic Chinese regime now.”

Base 311 of the Strategic Support Forces Command dealing with Taiwan, went into overdrive. This statement was denounced in shrill terms on Chinese media and by the Chinese foreign minister himself. Chinese embassies in all major countries went into an overdrive with strident condemnation. The Chinese social media went berserk. The US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) was concerned enough to call his Chinese counterpart. “What’s happening? “he asked.

“Oh, don’t be alarmed General, these are just the usual noises we have to make to keep hotheads in Taiwan in line,” he soothed. Meanwhile, editorials in Global Times warned, “Let Taiwan not trifle with the mainland. China is a very powerful country.”

8 Apr 2024. Off the Coast of Taiwan.

In early Apr 2024, the met and tide conditions were just right. President Xi gave his final nod. The aircraft carrier battle group led by Liaoning steamed off for exercises in the East China Sea. The newest Fujian CV-18 aircraft carrier with its battle group sailed off for north of Taiwan. It had 70 J-15 aircrafts with an AEW on board. The Shandong CV-17 aircraft carrier battle group sailed for the South China Sea, also for exercises. Large flotillas led by Rinhai-class cruisers started moving out for exercises to off the coast of Fujian for an amphibious landing drill. As a precaution, the US Navy started staging forward one of its aircraft carrier battle groups.

0600 hours, 8 Apr 2024. An intense barrage of DF-11, DF-15 and DF-16 Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs 500-700 kms range), Navy anti-ship cruise missiles and YJ-12A supersonic cruise missiles, hit the presidential palace and Ministry of Defence, in Taipei. They also targeted three airfields, six radar stations and some major communication nodes. The president and senior officials were whisked away to safety in the nick of time. One General however, was wounded. At 0630 hours, a second wave of ballistic and cruise missiles hit the remaining air bases and radar stations and three major ammunition dumps and fuel storage tanks. A third wave of missiles struck airfields and radar stations again after an interval of 10 minutes.

Special Forces Operations. Meanwhile, six small teams of PLA Special Forces had landed on the coast of Taiwan via submarines and rubber dinghies well before dawn. They now raided the land-based cruise missile sites of the Taiwanese Navy that could target any invasion force. They succeeded in destroying four sites. The other teams were spotted by civilians and rounded up by the Taiwanese Army.

Air and Maritime Air Operations

0645 hrs, 8 Apr 2024. Some 200 fighter jets of the PLA Air Force crossed the median line and headed straight for Taiwan airfields from the Western direction. They were led by J-20 Stealth aircraft armed with BVR missiles. Just 10 minutes later, 60 aircraft took off from the aircraft carrier Fujian along with an AEW aircraft to help in the expected air-to-air combat with the Taiwan Air Force. Fierce air battles erupted as the dazed Taiwanese fighters rose up to challenge the invaders. The J-20s shot down eight F-16 and two Mirages. The F-16s downed one J-20 and three J-11s with their ARAAM missiles. The Chinese fighters from the Fujian did better, as all attention had been diverted towards the PLA Air Force fighters coming from the west. The Navy fighters bombed the target air bases. When they were returning, some brave Taiwanese F-16s and Mirages scrambled up to engage them. In the ensuing air battle five Mirages and two F–16 fighters were shot down for the loss of three J-15s.

0700 hours, 8 Apr 2024. President Xi Jinping went on TV and radio to broadcast a message. He said, “We had patiently and peacefully tried for re-unification of the motherland but to no avail. We recently received very disturbing intelligence that renegades on the island were trying to declare Independence. Such statements have now indeed been made in Taipei. We have still showed great restraint. Today, the Strategic Rocket Forces have made purely demonstrative strikes on Taiwan along with our PLA Air Force and Naval aviation. To seek reunification of the renegade island with the motherland, we are now announcing an air and maritime blockade of the island with immediate effect. We do not want any further escalation. This is purely an internal matter of China and no other country has any right to intervene. China is a peace loving country and would like to resolve it peacefully. We call upon authorities in Taiwan to commence negotiations at once for peaceful re-unification. That will resolve the crisis

0715 hours, 8 Apr 2024. Crisis Room, White House. Washington.

Chairman US Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed the President and NSA. The president was shaken. “I thought we had defused it. We now have three wars on our hands. Do we want the third?” he asked.

“Mr President, we will have to react. Doing nothing will seriously erode our credibility,” said the grim-faced Chairman JCS.

“Frankly General, if this escalates, how ready are we now for a two-front war?” asked the NSA.

“Ready or not, we have no choice. We simply can’t do nothing. We will have to react,” replied the Chairman JCS obdurately.

“Yes, but can we do it in a way that this doesn’t escalate out of control?” asked the President. The Chairman JCS fell silent. He thought for a bit. Then he said, “Mr President, you could demand that the Chinese immediately call off the blockage and pay compensation for the damage caused in their so called ‘demonstrative’ strike. Meanwhile, we have already told our submarines to stage forward. By tomorrow they should be able to sink one or two major capital ships of the Chinese, as a ‘demonstration’ to start with. One of our aircraft carrier battle groups is already steaming toward the area. I have ordered two more carrier battle groups to set sail immediately,” said the Chairman JCS.

“Sink one or two Chinese warships? Won’t that be a declaration of war, General? asked the NSA.

“Yeah and China is a f—g nuclear armed country. This would be a direct clash, not a proxy war, as in Ukraine,” added the President.

“Sir, we can always say it was not us but one of their own mines they had sown for the blockade. That will put them in a decision dilemma as our carrier battle groups race for Taiwan.”

“What about our carrier battle group already half way? Won’t that get into a mess with their Fujian aircraft carrier or Chinese submarines before your neat subterfuge about mines hitting their ships can confuse them?” asked the President.

The Chairman JCS pursed his lips, “Mr President, that was a deterrence action. The situation has changed drastically now. I can order it to slow down and let other CBGs catch up if you wish to avoid immediate escalation and gain time. That will make the situation a bit more predictable and we won’t blunder into a shooting war right away.”

All three took a deep breath. The President knitted his brows, “OK, do that, I can’t think of anything smarter for the time being,” he said, but he was not liking this whole thing one bit.

1503 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Off North Eastern Coast of Taiwan.

The carrier battle group headed by CV-18 aircarft carrier Fujian had two Rinhai-class cruisers, four Luyang-class destroyers and 6 Jinhai-class frigates. It was the main battle group enforcing the blockade. At 1503 hours on 9 Apr 24, a torpedo struck a Rinhai-class cruiser. There was a massive explosion. The warship caught fire. The ship listed to one side and then sank slowly. Meanwhile, Taiwan scrambled its F-16s and Mirages also to attack this Chinese armada enforcing the blockade. The Taiwan jets were picked both by shore-based J-2000 AWACS and the AEW then in the air from the Fujian. J-15 fighters from the carrier and then a whole host of J-20, J-10 and J-11 aircrafts from the shore-based airfields, swarmed up. A major air battle erupted. The BVRs from the J-20s managed to shoot down 10 Mirages and four F-16s. Three J-15s and two J-10s were shot down in this melee. One Mirage fighter fired an Exocet anti-ship missile and badly damaged a Jiangkai-class frigate of the Chinese Navy. Three American carrier battle groups were now steaming full speed towards Taiwan.

1700 hours, 9 Apr 2024. Joint Operations Room. Beijing.

All members of the CMC and the entire top hierarchy of the PLA were in attendance. The Commander PLA Airforce briefed first. “In yesterday’s air battles we had shot down a total of 18 F-16s and 7 Mirages for a loss one J-20, three J- 10s and three J-11s (ratio 25:7). Today, the Taiwanese Air Force tried to attack our blockading force. In the combined air battle, we have shot down 10 Mirages and 8 F-16s. The enemy managed to shoot down three J-15s and two J-10 fighters (ratio 18 : 5). Overall, Taiwan has lost 43 jet fighters to our 12,” he said.

Commander PLA Navy briefed next. “Comrades, the most important development today is that an American nuclear submarine, fired a torpedo and sank our Rinhai-class cruiser. This is a major loss and is an act of war on part of the Americans. The Taiwanese Air Force mounted a major attack on our Fujian carrier battle group enforcing the blockade but was driven off with huge losses. One of our guided missile Jiangkai-class frigates was, however, damaged. We are now at war with USA and I recommend that we immediately fire DF-21D salvos on his three advancing carrier battle groups and stop them before they join battle.”

“Just one second,” Gen Zhang Youxia interjected. “I just got a call from the US Chairman JCS to say that they have no submarines in that area and this seems an accident caused by our own mines laid for the blockade.”

The Commander of PLA Navy went red in the face. “That’s a blatant lie. We must hit back immediately.”

“How do you want to do that?” asked President Xi Jinping.

Admiral Miao, member CMC spoke up. “As the Commander PLAN has rightly said, we must immediately engage the American aircraft carrier battle groups with non-stop salvos of DF-21D anti-ship missiles, till we draw blood. Meantime, we must not lose time and immediately attack the American bases in Okinawa and Guam. Otherwise, US and Japanese fighters and bombers from there, could hit our blockading forces and our cities on the east coast. Shanghai would be a prime target. Comrade President, this is not the time to hesitate. Hit back before we are hit hard. We must pre-empt the Americans.”

President Xi Jinping’s face was taut with tension. He swallowed hard and then took a few sips of water from his glass. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxia. “Comrade Zhang?” he queried.

“The Admiral is right. But that means full scale war that could go right up even to the nuclear level. So let’s pause and think now. The fact that the Americans have disowned their submarine attack on our Rinhai cruiser, tells me they are not keen to escalate. Maybe, they are also looking for a way out. We have amply shaken them up for now. Should we de-escalate and begin negotiations for a peaceful merger of Taiwan now? Or will that be too soon? Problem is, a day later may simply be too late.”

The question hung unanswered in the tense air of the Joint Operations Room in Beijing. All anxious faces turned towards the President of China.

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30 Jun 2023. White House. Washington.

Director CIA, William Burns asked for a most urgent meeting with President Joe Biden on 30 Jun 23. Director CIA pointed out that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had stalled badly and they had taken heavy losses.

“But you already told me that”, the president interjected. The Director CIA took a deep breath. “But what I’m about to tell you is far worse, Mr President. In fact, it is explosive.” The president looked at him in surprise.

“Mr President, we have received very hard intelligence that China has preponed its time line for attack on Taiwan. We understand that this will go in now in Apr 2024.”

“What? The president was genuinely alarmed. “How do we know this?”

The Director CIA pursed his lips. How much could he reveal now, he wondered to himself. “Mr President, firstly, these are the clear battle indications:-

• The Chinese are rapidly reducing their holdings of US treasury bonds and securities. They are trying to cut down dollar holdings of their forex reserves. They have drawn lessons from how we simply seized 300 billion dollars worth of Russian forex reserves.

• They are building up their gold reserves.

• They are building up stocks of fuel and food. In fact, even during Covid, they refused to touch their food reserve stocks.

• They are building up their blood banks for military hospitals.

• The PLA has been carrying out increasingly more realistic exercises. They have already practised enforcing a blockade and gaining air and maritime control over and around Taiwan. Next year, they are planning a full-fledged joint island landing campaign exercise which could easily be turned to actuals.”

“All of that still doesn’t give us an exact timeline” said the president impatiently.

“Exactly, Mr President. I took this time to come to you because we wanted to be very certain. But we now have solid human intelligence that the CMC has decided to attack in Apr 2024.”

“How solid?” asked the president.

“I would say rock solid, Mr President.” The President got up in agitation.

“I say we call an immediate meeting with the Chairman JCS and Secretary of State.”

“Mr President, can’t we delay that a bit. It would endanger those very highly-placed sources who have risked their necks to share this.”

“You have given me this explosive bit of intelligence and expect me to sit on it? Talking about a two-front war is one thing, fighting a two-front war is quite another. No, we can’t afford this. We need to head this off preferably. We need to de-escalate right away. Go on a charm offensive,” the president said in considerable agitation.

Consequent to this exchange, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, made two efforts to resume talks with Beijing. This was followed up by Secretary of Treasury Janet Yallen, who went to Beijing and virtually pleaded with the Chinese not to get rid of their US treasury bonds. The way she kow-towed in Beijing had to be seen. Finally, the 100-year old former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, the author of the US–China reproachment in the 1970s, himself made a visit to Beijing to placate the Chinese leadership.

18 Aug 2023. On board the presidential plane of XI Jinping. Over Nanjing.

President Xi Jinping made a sudden unannounced visit to HQ Eastern Command Nanjing. On the return flight, Director of China’s State Security Bureau (SSB) boarded the plane. He asked for an absolutely one-on-one meeting with the president on the plane. He had some top-class intelligence to share. The president was surprised. Director SSB apologised, “I’m sorry Comrade President. What I have to tell you is so sensitive that I had to arrange this special flight, just in case your office was bugged.”

“What is it,” asked President Xi, nervously.

“Comrade President, we have been betrayed. Our plans to invade Taiwan have been leaked to the Americans.”

“Leaked? By whom?” the president said as his face clouded with anger.

“Comrade president, I don’t know how to say this but your defence minister and foreign minister, no less, have done this treachery.”

“Li Shang Fu and Quiqiang?” The President was amazed. Both were his proteges and he had promoted them out of turn.

“Are you certain?” he asked in shock.

“Sir, before we came to you, we checked and double-checked. This is the sad truth,” the Director SSB said. “It was Li Shang Fu who told the foreign minister and also shared this decision with the Chief and Deputy Chief of the Rocket Forces.”

“This Li Shang Fu!” the President got up from his seat in rage. He immediately sent for Gen Zhang, Vice Chief of CMC. “Put plans for Taiwan on hold immediately, till we clean up this stinking system,” he was almost spluttering in rage. The system was duly cleaned up. The department for Discipline Inspection went into overdrive. First the foreign minister and then the defence minister simply disappeared from public view. The foreign minister, had a torrid affair with a tele- journalist when he was ambassador in USA. He had even fathered a child with her. The defence minister was involved in huge corruption in defence deals and had been compromised. Terse announcements followed weeks of speculation. Both had been sacked.

30 Oct 2023. Top Secret Meeting CMC. Shenyang.

On 7 Oct 2023, the Hamas struck Israel viciously and achieved complete surprise. Some 1,200 Israeli citizens were killed, 3,700 wounded and 250 taken hostage. Israel mobilised 3,00,000 reservists and reacted in rage. They bombed Gaza to rubble and then launched a brutal ground invasion spearheaded by Merkava tanks. In eight weeks, over 11,000 Palestinians were killed and some 23,000 wounded. US despatched two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and rushed in arms and munitions to Israel. On 30 Oct, Xi Jinping called for another top-secret CMC meeting. This time it was held in Shenyang in northern China. The Director of SSB was in attendance to ensure there was no leakage.

The President began with the Director SSB, “Comrade have we managed to clean up our system?

“Comrade Xi, we have purged the system thoroughly. With your support, the traitors at the highest levels have been dealt with,” he said grimly.

Xi just nodded curtly. He turned to Gen Zhang Youxian. “Comrade Zhang, in view of the Israel-Hamas conflict, what is your assessment of the global situation? Does it create a good window of opportunity for our Taiwan contingency?”

Gen Zhang said, “Comrade President, the situation is excellent. America is bogged down now in two wars, not just one. They have sent in two carrier battle groups to the Middle East and a large number of their army reserves are locked up in Europe. Both conflicts will drag on for a long time. 12% of Israel’s population were orthodox Jews who are extreme and don’t want a two state solution. This will likely go up to 32%. Both these conflicts will drag on. I say it is now or never. The correlation of forces will never be as favourable.”

Xi turned to Gen Hi Wei Dong, “Comrade?” he said briefly.

Gen Hi cleared his throat and said, “I agree entirely with Gen Zhang. The Americans know that we know, they know. In this situation they will least expect us to go ahead with the plan. We now need a good deception plan. Let us mount a good charm offensive to soothe American nerves and go right ahead in Apr 2024. We won’t get a more favourable global situation.”

“So what will it be? A full-scale Amphibious invasion, seizing some middle-sized island or a Blockade?”

Gen Hi said promptly, “The Americans are expecting a full scale invasion. So let us start with a joint fire strike on key targets in Taiwan, follow it up with the PLA Air Force and PLA Navy establishing air and maritime superiority. Concurrently, we announce a maritime blockade and if necessary, enforce it for months, till the renegades in Taiwan cave in. Let us learn from Ukraine. Defence today is far more powerful that attack. So, we put in blockade and, thereby, put the onus of attack on the Americans. Let them attack first. It will be best for our information and cognitive warfare theme – “We showed restraint, it is the Americans who were the aggressors.” This will be far less risky option than full scale invasion.”

Adimiral Miao Hua said excitedly, “I do not agree. The Americans will use submarines to break the blockade. If we do not pre-emptively strike their bases in Guam and Okinawa, they will use them to bomb our fleet and our cities on the east coast. Let us not make the same mistake the Russians did at start of Ukraine war. Either we go full on or not at all. Let’s not go to war with mental brakes full on.”

Gen Hi countered, “The amphibious landing phase will be very risky. They will focus on destroying maximum number of our ships as we come in. With US and Taiwanese air power, cruise and anti-ship missiles and drones they could do very great damage. Besides, do we have the full lift capability for carrying four if not all six of our amphibious brigades to make at least two major beach-heads on the western coast of Taiwan?

Adm Miao interjected, “We have been practising with civilian roll–on roll–off (Ro- Ro) with floating causeways. We have 64 of these that have trained for such assaults. Besides we have the largest merchant marine in the world. Even USA cannot lift as many troops as we can.”

“But these huge ships will be sitting ducks for US and Taiwanese anti–ship and cruise missiles. We could win or lose all. Are we prepared to lose all? And don’t forget, even if you do land successfully, you still have to fight through a very mountainous country with lots of built up areas,” Gen Hi countered.

The palpable tension was showing on President Xi’s face. He took a sip of water.

“So, if we blockade Taiwan, how will the Americans react,” he asked.

Gen Zhang Youxia replied, “The US will react first with his nuclear submarines to torpedo our blockading ships. Then, he will surge forward two or three carrier battle groups, maybe even five.”

“Then what do we do?” asked the President.

Gen Zhang replied, “Comrade President, our guided missile Renhai-class cruisers and Luyang-class destroyers have good anti-submarine warfare and anti-air capabilities. Besides, we have our nuclear powered hunter-killer submarines. In addition, our entire PLA Air Force and Marine Aviation will be up in the air. To take care of US carrier battle groups, we will fire salvos of Dong Feng-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles of 2000 km range. The Americans can’t accept casualties. Even if they lose one or two carriers, their ardour to intervene will evaporate quickly.”

There was a total silence in the room. You could cut the air with a knife. President Xi licked his lips to moisten them. His mouth had gone dry with the tension.

“OK, let’s go for the blockade,” he said finally. “But, what will be our pretext?”

“Oh, that is easy, Comrade President. Firstly, presidential elections in Taiwan are on 13 Jan next year. We can always take advantage of any pro-Independence sentiments expressed in the presidential campaign. If that does not work, we have an opposition candidate in our pay – a good agent provocateur. Next year, in March, he will make an impassioned speech denouncing President of Taiwan, ask for her impeachment and demand full Independence now,” said the Director SSB.

President Xi nodded grimly, saying, “Well, if a pro-Independence candidate wins in January elections, we will have very real reason to go in. Comrades, we plan for a blockade next year in Apr 2024. It will give us much better escalation control and lower any risk of catastrophic failure. If the first phase of the blockade goes well, maybe we could still go for full-scale amphibious assault. Let us see how that goes. We have a golden opportunity with the US already bogged down on two fronts. We can’t afford to let this pass. Meanwhile, let’s go on a charm offensive for full scale deception. I’ll go for the summit meeting with President Biden in California as planned on 15 Nov and try to be as nice as possible.” He then concluded the meet.

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16 Feb 2022. Meeting of Central Military Commission (CMC) on Taiwan Question. Beijing

Russia was fully poised to launch its invasion of Ukraine in Feb 22. President Putin had visited China just before the invasion and signed the “friendship without limits” agreement. Xi Jinping had assured Putin of full, tacit support. The Russian invasion could occur anytime now. On 16 Feb 2022, President Xi Jinping had convened a top-secret meeting of the CMC. Once Russia invaded Ukraine, it would create a crisis that would completely tie down the USA and the West. Would that present an ideal opportunity for China to invade Taiwan? Historically, China had exploited the opportunity provided by the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, to teach India a lesson while the world was pre-occupied. Was there a similar opportunity coming up? He asked for frank views.

Gen Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of CMC, spoke first. He was one of the last few veterans of the 1979 China-Vietnam war of 1979 still serving, and Xi gave great respect to his views on all matters military. Zhang said, “Comrade President, the West anticipates an invasion of Taiwan earliest in the 2025-27 timeframe. As such, we certainly would achieve strategic surprise if we attack before that. The crucial point is how ready are we today for such a massive operation? My second point is – should we not wait to see how the Russian invasion of Ukraine proceeds? What are the American reactions? Will Russia overcome Ukraine in a 7-10 days’ timeframe, as is being anticipated? The crisis will then dissipate in a very short timeframe. What if Russia fails or gets bogged down? The crisis could then get extended. I say let us wait and watch. It will give us valuable lessons and pointers for our own operation.”

 Xi turned to Gen He Weidong, Second Vice Chairman of CMC. He had been former commander of China’s Eastern Theatre Command and was considered an expert on Taiwan. He said, “I tend to agree with Gen Zhang. It would be most useful and instructive to wait and watch and see how the Russian offensive fares. That will give us clear pointers to how the West will react and we can prepare accordingly.”

President Xi now turned to the CMC members.

Gen Li Shangfu, Defence Minister spoke up next, “Comrades, I don’t think our operations in Taiwan will be contingent upon success or failure of the Russian offensive in Ukraine. A major amphibious invasion of Taiwan will be a very serious decision. Once war in Ukraine distracts global attention, we will have to take a clear cut call and then go firm. A lot of preparations will have to commence now for a major amphibious invasion. The met conditions are ideal in April, May or August each year. You will have to decide, go or no-go and then stick to it firmly. Now is the time to act. We cannot debate forever.”

Gen Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff, was a bit irritated by this oblique criticism of Gen Zhang, from someone who had not heard a shot fired in anger. ”Gen Li Shangfu, have we decided it will be a full-fledged amphibious invasion? We all know what the options are:-

• Air and maritime blockade of Taiwan.

• Limited kinetic strikes with missiles and airpower.

• Capture of small or medium sized offshore island or

• Full scale amphibious invasion.

Have we decided which option we will adopt? A lot will depend upon that.” That led to animated discussion on the options. Finally, Chairman Xi said, “Returning to the main theme, it appears to me that it would help to adopt a wait and watch option for now. Let the Russian invasion be for us a trailer, which will uncover Western reactions and counter moves for us.”

20 Jul 2022. Second Meeting of CMC – Taiwan Question. Beijing

The Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced on 22 Feb 2022. It made good progress initially. The Russians reached the outskirts of Kiev and captured 90% of Luhansk and 60% of Donbas. They created a land link to Crimea and captured all the ports on the Sea of Azov and Black Sea (less Odessa). However, thereafter they got bogged down. The West imposed severe economic sanctions to cripple the Russian economy. On 20 July, President Xi convened the second meeting of CMC. “Comrades, the Russian offensive in Ukraine seems to have bogged down badly. What has gone wrong? Gen Zhang, you are most combat experienced general here. Can you analyse this for us?

Gen Zhang Youxia said, “Strangely, the Russians opted for invasion “lite” that is so far removed from the standard Russian way of war with emphasis on using overwhelming force and mass. Here, the Russians attacked with just 1,50,000 men, whereas, the Ukrainians were 2,50,000 men to start with and then fully mobilised to get some 5,50,000 men in arms. If most of your fighting was to be in built-up areas, this was a terribly skewed force ratio to start with. The Russians had hoped that technological superiority would help them win, but now they are bogged down badly. Using too little force will just prolong this war. Ukraine has seen the gaps and have now started counter-attacking. The Russians forces are now tired and spread out too thin. I’m really surprised why the Russians are not mobilising. This is war and you can’t afford to fight half–heartedly.”

Lt Gen He Weidong spoke next. “What this war has so clearly demonstrated is that with recent advances in technology – especially satellites, AWACS and drones –  surprise is impossible to achieve. What is worse is, defence today has a very clear advantage over offense. With drones, loitering munitions, precision strike weapons like HIMARS, attacks are becoming prohibitively costly. The attacker has to pay a heavy price, as we have seen.”

Lt Gen Liu Zhenli, the Chief of Staff pitched in. “The Russian attack was overland. They had no major obstacles to cross. If they took such losses, we will have to pause and think. Our offensive will have to cross 80 miles of sea. An amphibious landing is the most complex and difficult operation to execute. It calls for total command of the sea and maritime domain. With the current state of technology, we will have to bear heavy losses and even accept risk of catastrophic failure. I think we may have to postpone our offensive plans and focus on increasing our military power in the meantime.”

Gen Zhang Shengmin, the powerful head of the Commission for Discipline Inspection, spoke next. “However, Russia has been very successful at defeating Western economic sanctions. The major lesson learnt is that we must immediately start reducing our investments in US securities and treasury bonds. We have to reduce our holding of dollars in US banks. Otherwise, like they simply seized 300 billion dollars worth of Russian forex reserves, they could do the same to us. We must strive for de-dollarization of global trade and invest more in gold reserves.”

Admiral Miao Hua, member of the CMC said, “Comrades, Americans have already sensed our hesitation and doubt. They are acting in such a triumphalist manner and trying to rub our noses in the dirt. They are being most reckless. They seem to think that they can take on Russia and China together and defeat us both. I do not think this hubris is justified.”

Chairman Xi Jinping was cautious and risk averse as usual. “Comrades, we have to keep in mind ground realities. Seeing the way Russia has become bogged down in Ukraine, this time does not at all seem opportune to proceed with our Taiwan contingency plans. We will have to pend them for now.”

26 Jul 2022. Emergency Meeting of CMC. Beijing

The American truculence towards China seemed to be rising by the day. They openly threatened China not to supply any weapons to Russia or help it evade the economic sanctions. Now, to further rub Chinese noses in the sand, the Americans announced that Congress Speaker Nancy Pilosi would be visiting Taiwan on 2-3 Aug 22 as part of Congress Member Delegation (CODEL). On 26 July, Xi Jinping summoned an emergency meeting of the CMC. He was really upset.

“Comrades, this is too much. The Americans are sending their Speaker, this Pilosi woman, to Taiwan, deliberately to spite us. We will have to work out how we react to this grave provocation.”

Admiral Miao Hua, spoke up instantly, “Comrade president, you will recall this is precisely what I had warned against in the last CMC meeting. The Americans have sensed our hesitation and caution and are trying now to push us around. This will become intolerable, if we let this pass.”

“So, what do we do?” asked the President.

Gen Hi Weidong, former Eastern Theatre Commander and Taiwan expert of the CMC, said, “Comrade president, we have worked out an effective response short of war. We will hold an exercise of imposing a simulated blockade of Taiwan. Concurrently, we will hold major air and naval exercises to practise seizing maritime and air control in the Strait. We will fire missiles over Taiwan. That will send a clear message.”

Gen Zhang Youxia added, “Simultaneously, let us cut off all military-to-military contacts with America, so no hot line works, and they worry.”

President Xi grunted, “Sounds good. Let’s do it.”

China fired a number of missiles with impact points all around the seas of Taiwan. Dangerously, four of them flew over Taiwan. The PLA Air force launched 250 sorties that crossed into Taiwan’s AIDZ (air defence identification zone) and 13 Chinese naval units sailed around Taiwan to its north, south east and south west, simulating a blockade. For a time, the Americans were worried. They even escorted Nancy Pilosi’s plane with F-16 fighters as it flew into Taiwan. But when nothing more happened, the Americans saw through the Chinese bluff. The response was more hysteria, exercises and nothing more.

The Ukrainians had started launching counter-attacks to take advantage of serious gaps in Russian defence lines. American satellites were picking up these gaps and vectoring the Ukrainian counter-attacks on the harried and over-stretched Russian contingent of forces in Ukraine. The Americans sent yet another delegation to Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping scowled darkly, “Threats don’t work now. We will have to do something real.”

15 Apr 2023. Top Secret CMC Meeting. Beijing

In Sep 2023, in a belated concession to common sense, the Russians finally mobilised 3,00,000 reservists. Gen Suvorvikin, used civilian construction companies to build a formidable, three-tiered Maginot line for the defence of all territories captured in Ukraine. Defence had proved to be the stronger form of war with current technology. Now, the Russians wanted the over-confident Ukrainians to get a taste of their own medicine. Accordingly, in a repeat of their strategy during the Kursk battle in World War II, the Russians deliberately decided to let the Ukrainians attack first, absorb and defeat these attacks and then go on the counter-offensive. The military situation in Ukraine was clearly shifting In Russia’s favour. That was the time that president Tsai Wen of Taiwan decided to visit the US (7 Apr 2023). President Xi Jinping was infuriated. There was no end to American provocations. Meanwhile, Russia was hitting Ukrainian cities with massive barrages of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Iranian Shahed drones. The damage was substantive and highly visible on global TV screens.

On 30 Apr 23, President Xi Jinping summoned the fourth meeting of CMC on the Taiwan issue. This was a top secret meeting held under very tight security blanket in Beijing.

The president said, “Comrades I am now getting sick and tired of American insults and provocations. Our shows of force are not working at all. We will have to now use actual force like our Russian friends. And, by the way, the Russian military position is far stronger than was painted by American propaganda. They were largely winning this war on TV screens. Now the truth is emerging. The war situation is now finally turning in favour of the Russians. Let us emulate the Russian example and finally take the plunge.”

Gen Zhang Youxia cleared his throat, “Comrade President, I could not agree more with you. We have taken enough bullying from the Americans. America’s military industrial capacity has grown weak in their unipolar era. They have transferred huge stocks of ammunition to Ukraine and locked up their land forces reserves in Europe. This could seriously weaken their capability to react to any crisis over Taiwan. I think it is time to take another look at our decision to defer the Taiwan contingency operations. There are very strong reasons to prepone the time-line for Taiwan. Maybe if we strike in 2024 itself we will achieve full strategic surprise and take advantage of America’s preoccupation with Ukraine.”

Gen He Weidong fully endorsed the views of Gen Zhang. He said, “Comrades our military thinking and planning has been very realistic. We have invested so much in our Strategic Rocket Force and our drones. Both have proved their value in combat in Ukraine. It is time to press home this resource. Today, the PLA Navy is the biggest navy in the world and the PLA Air Force has over 1300 fourth generation aircraft. I say let us strike out boldly and resolutely.”

The Defence Minister Gen Li Shangfu was most enthusiastic. He said, “Comrades let us act in a decisive manner and do it finally. We need to set a firm time line cast in stone and then not dither. That will enable the PLA to prepare in a decisive manner. We must take the firm decision today and stick to it with resolve.”

“So, when do you propose we go in? 2024 or the next year?” asked the president. He was not liking the undertone of criticism in the Defence Minster’s statement.

“Comrade president, I think we should go firm on Apr 2024,” Gen Li Shangfu said emphatically.

There was total silence in the room. One could feel the tension. Finally, Xi Jinping spoke up, “Comrades let us do it. We go firm on Apr 2024. Please plan accordingly.”

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While there is regular interaction between members of the political executive in most countries and the military branches, the timing of Xi’s interaction with a cross-section of forces responsible for China’s internal and external security has been taken note of by military strategists. 2020 saw China’s worst conflict in decades with India that led to casualties on both sides. India and China remain engaged in a protracted confrontation in the icy Himalayas, with the theatre of conflict expanding to Arunachal Pradesh, where Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Tawang sector in December 2022. Xi has launched large-scale exercises and regular patrols in areas claimed by China like the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. China’s air force has been flying near Taiwan with increasing regularity and its war games close to Taiwan’s shores went to unprecedented levels last year after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island.

China’s air force has been flying near Taiwan with increasing regularity and its war games close to Taiwan’s shores went to unprecedented levels last year after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island.

In addition to external factors, one needs to carefully peruse domestic discourse in China. 2022 was an important year in China’s political calendar as Xi was expected to wrest an unprecedented third term in October 2022, bringing a renewed focus on the preparedness of the defence forces.

Overhauling the military

Significantly, Xi in his capacity as the Chief of the Central Military Commission (CMC) – an important institution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) that is responsible for managing the armed forces – inspected its joint operations command centre in November 2022. His address warned that on account of the rapidly transforming situation the nation faced grave risks and that the forces must focus their energy on fighting wars, and expediting training to enable the People’s Liberation Army to win wars. Earlier addressing the National Defence and Military Reform Seminar in September 2022, Xi asserted that the reform of national defence during his tenure had been a historic achievement since it had addressed “structural obstacles and institutional issues. In different phases, Xi has restructured troop units and command theatres. China has built capacities to soldier on new fronts like space and cyberspace with the formation of the Strategic Support Force. The PLA Rocket Force was upgraded to a full military service branch and, is in charge of China’s land-based nuclear and conventional missile forces.

China has built capacities to soldier on new fronts like space and cyberspace with the formation of the Strategic Support Force.

Moreover, there has been a painstaking effort in China’s internal propaganda to burnish Xi’s role in the transformation of the PLA as a modern force, and billed as his signature initiative. CMC vice-chairperson General Zhang Youxia argued in an article in the People’s Daily that the defence forces had been exposed to risks before Xi took over in 2012 and that he carried out the task of rebuilding the army and purging it of corrupt generals. Implicit in this assertion is that Xi’s predecessors allowed a drift in the armed forces, imperilling national security. It may be recalled that there was a purge of CMC chairpersons Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, and other senior military figures shortly after Xi took over on grounds that they had been responsible for taking bribes in lieu of doling out promotions in the armed forces. The downfall of senior figures in the military establishment revealed the extent of the unholy practice of buying ranks in the services, which has put a question mark on the combat readiness of one of the world’s largest armies. At a time when Xi has branded the modernisation of the PLA as a pet project, he has to constantly harp on its preparedness.

Ukrain-Taiwan analogy

Since the Ukraine crisis, China has assiduously promoted a view that the situation is due to America’s obsession with forming alliances that threaten stability. Juxtaposing the European situation in Asia, an article in the PLA Daily describes the Indo-Pacific strategy as responsible for creating blocs in Asia and therefore, endangering peace and stability. In fact to the contrary, China’s live-fire drills in the Taiwan straits in response to the Pelosi visit last year spilt over to Japan with missiles landing in the latter’s exclusive economic zone. This has led to a growing belief among the Japanese elite that Japan would not remain unscathed in the eventuality of China’s invasion of Taiwan. This belief has consequently led to Japan boosting its security cooperation with the US and increasing its defence budget. In the Xi era, China’s internal narrative has tried to weaponise historical grievances, particularly Japan’s wartime role in China. In 2014, it declared two national holidays: “War against Japanese Aggression Victory Day” and “Nanjing Massacre Memorial Day”, and publicly honoured the assassin of Japan’s Prime Minister Hirobumi Ito.

Juxtaposing the European situation in Asia, an article in the PLA Daily describes the Indo-Pacific strategy as responsible for creating blocs in Asia and therefore, endangering peace and stability.

To conclude, first, the bribes-for-promotions scandal will linger on in the psyche of China’s political elite despite the PLA’s overhaul, and continue to cast doubts on its efficacy. Besides, the armed forces still remain untested in battle, having last seen active combat in the late 1970s in the Sino-Vietnamese war. To bridge the gap, China has sought to engage veterans of foreign militaries to train its personnel as evidenced from an inquiry launched by the Australian government recently to uncover China’s overtures to their defence personnel. Second, China’s elite see Japan’s security posturing from a prism of history that has caused its strategists to argue that the latter is moving away from its avowed pacifism, which has led to Xi’s call to his army for greater combat readiness. Considering Xi’s belligerence, it is not something the world can ignore.

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Xi, 69, has been reappointed as the General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) and head of the Central Military Commission (CMC) — the overall high command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for an unprecedented third five-year term by the party’s once-in-a-five-year Congress here last month.

Holding the three powerful posts of the head of the party, the military, and the Presidency, Xi is the only leader besides the party founder Mao Zedong to continue in power after completing 10-year tenure, while all his predecessors retired.

On 8 November, Xi inspected the joint operations command centre of the CMC here which provides vital support to the strategic command of the CPC Central Committee and the CMC.

Upon arriving at the command centre, the Chinese leader was given a briefing, the official media reported.

In his first address to the two million-strong military — the largest in the world — as he kicked off his third term as head of the CMC, Xi said the world is undergoing more profound changes unseen in a century and stressed that China’s national security is facing increased instability and uncertainty, and its military tasks remain arduous.

He said the entire military should devote all its energy to carry out all its work for combat readiness, enhance its capability to fight and win, and effectively fulfill its missions and tasks, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Xi instructed them to resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and successfully complete various tasks entrusted by the party and the people, the report said.

Though President Xi did not mention a particular country in his address, it came amidst growing international concern over China’s aggressive military manoeuvring in the resource-rich Indo-Pacific region. The armies of China and India are also engaged in a prolonged standoff in eastern Ladakh.

China claims nearly all of the disputed South China Sea, though Taiwan, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam all claim parts of it.

Beijing has built artificial islands and military installations in the South China Sea. China also has territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea.

Xi said the military leadership must focus on realising the PLA’s centennial goal – to make the PLA a world-class armed force by 2027, which is broadly interpreted as making it on par with the US armed forces.

“We must do all we can to make this happen,” he said.

During his speech at the party congress last month, Xi also set “victory in local wars” as a goal and told the PLA to “improve training and preparation for war in all aspects and improve the ability of the army to fight and win”.

“We will strengthen the normal and diversified use of military forces, carry out military struggles with determination and flexibility, shape the security posture, contain crises and conflicts, and win local wars,” he said.

Commenting on Xi’s address to the military, retired Air Force General Xu Qiliang, who was the former vice-chairman of the CMC, said in a commentary that the PLA must prepare for a rapid transformation from peace to wartime.

“Always maintain a high readiness posture like arrows on a taut string ready to go, to ensure that the troops are prepared to fight at all times,” Xu, who retired from the top post in the CMC, was quoted as saying by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

In his address to the CPC Congress last month, President Xi said China will establish a strong system of strategic deterrence, which was interpreted by observers as a call to increase China’s nuclear weapons.

Analysts said Xi’s remarks indicated China would improve its nuclear deterrence capability amid its increasing rivalry with the US.

Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor, said the statement meant China would “strengthen its development of strategic nuclear forces” to safeguard its national security.

Song said the PLA must strengthen its “nuclear triad” forces – its combination of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched missiles, and air-launched weapons – as well as its second-nuclear strike capability to respond to a nuclear attack.

“All of these require the PLA to have a modern nuclear-armed force … and to moderately increase the nuclear arsenal,” he told the Post.

In his address to the military officials on Tuesday, Xi instructed the armed forces to thoroughly study, publicise and implement the guiding principles of last month’s 20th CPC

National Congress and take concrete actions to further modernize national defence and the military.

He said the entire armed forces implement the Party’s thinking on strengthening the military for the new era, following the military strategy, and adhering to combat effectiveness as the sole criterion.

The new era refers to his assumption of the leadership of the party in 2012.

The command centre, which provides vital support to the strategic command of the CPC Central Committee and the CMC, is of great importance and shoulders heavy responsibilities, Xi said.

The command centre should make new and greater contributions to boosting military training and combat preparedness, effectively fulfilling all missions and tasks in the new era, Xi said.

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The most significant outcome of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which ended on 23 October, is the re-election of Xi Jinping for a record third term as the general secretary of the party. This is a prelude to his extension as the President of the People’s Republic and the Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission for yet another term, and possibly for life.

Deng Xiaoping, who led China following the disastrous decades of Maoist excesses, pushed the CPC to adopt the norms of collective leadership that led to presidential terms being limited to two and put in place an informal retirement age of 68. Xi has pushed all these conditions aside to emerge as an all-powerful figure after the last 19th Party Congress did away with presidential term limits.

Xi’s power is evident from the two key political ideas introduced into the CPC constitution last week. “Two establishes” calls on the party to recognise Xi as the “core” and to accept his ideas as a key tenet of the party rule. The “two safeguards” calls on the CPC to protect Xi’s status and safeguard the party’s leading role in China.

Xi’s centralisation of power was visible on Sunday, when he paraded China’s apex ruling team, the Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) on the dais at the 20th Party Congress on its closing day. They are all his key allies, signalling that loyalty was the key criterion for their appointment.

No. 2 to Xi in the CPC’s apex body is Li Qiang, who is expected to replace Li Keqiang as Prime Minister in March 2023 when the National People’s Congress meets to select a new government. Li Qiang’s current job is as chief of the CPC in Shanghai. Among the other new appointees are Cai Qi, party chief of Beijing, Ding Xuexiang, former chief of staff of Xi, and Li Xi, party leader from Guangdong.

Premier Li Keqiang and Vice-Premier Wang Yang were both dropped from the PBSC. Both are 67 and could have been considered for another term. Another 67-year-old leader, Wang Huning, an associate of Xi was re-elected. Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua, who was once considered a potential successor, failed to make it to the PBSC and was actually dropped from the Politburo itself.

In the lineup of the new leaders, what is significant is dropping of leaders like Li Keqiang, who is a trained economist. Another two important figures — People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang and banking regulator Guo Shuqing — have been dropped from the new Central Committee. There is speculation that leaders who take a more liberal approach to economic policy have been dropped.

Having done away with the only significant constitutional limitation on the personal power of a leader attempted by Communist China, the fears are that Xi will also shed restraints in the exercise of that power. He has been known for policies of nationalism, enhancement of the role of the CPC in the everyday life of China, a hard line on Taiwan and confrontation with the West and other countries like India.

There is every expectation that Xi will double down on his policies relating to the economy and security, both of which were important themes of his work report to the Party Congress on its very first day. In the ensuing week, some of the issues were written into the CPC’s constitution. The report provided a policy blueprint for the coming five years.

In his two-hour speech, Xi spelt out the CPC’s priorities on economic policy and security. There were new sections on science and education, signalling the increased emphasis on their role in China’s plans for the future. The essence, according to observers, was on the “Chinese characteristics” of modernisation and governance.

Xi’s emphasis on the economic front was a call to promote the development of science and technology and at the same time orient Chinese economic growth towards a more equal distribution as indicated by the slogan he gave in 2021, calling for “common prosperity”. He has, however, made it clear that the overall policy of promoting economic growth will continue.

There was a significant emphasis on security and a veiled attack on the US, which was attempting to “blackmail, contain, blockade and exert maximum pressure on China.”

Xi boasted that China would have a world-class army by 2027 and said besides “strategic deterrence” (nuclear), “new domain forces with new combat capabilities” would be introduced. From India’s point of view, there was a reference that the PLA modernisation would “shape our security posture, deter and manage crises and conflicts and win local wars.” There is little doubt that this refers to China’s issues with Taiwan and India. The screening of clips of the Galwan clash for the Congress delegates confirmed that India is very much in the minds of decision-makers in Beijing.

The notion of term limits for high offices goes back into history, and so does the opposition to it by strong men like Julius Caesar and Napoleon. Modern experience suggests that in eight to 10 years of office, leaders get jaded. This is evident from the record of office of leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and numerous African heads of government.

There was a certain wisdom in Deng Xiaoping’s effort to promote collective leadership and check the power of a single leader. Those restraints have been removed by Xi and China may once again have to confront the consequences of being ruled by a supremo who has no check on his authority.

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Acutely conscious of the fate of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), Chinese President Xi Jinping is particularly concerned that the army remains “an army of the party” and to ensure this, he mandated a series of consecutive year-long education campaigns to instil the CCP’s ideology and correct political orientation among the soldiers. A book released last week, titled “Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Army Q&A”, has now indelibly affixed his imprimatur on the PLA. It has been distributed throughout the army as “important” reading for officers, soldiers, cadres and the masses.

Xi’s grip on the PLA is near absolute. At an “enlarged” meeting of the Central Military Commission (CMC) within two days of taking over China’s top three posts, including Chairman of the CMC in November 2012, Xi announced that the political reliability and loyalty would trump all other considerations and be the sole determining criterion for promotions in the PLA. Other steps were taken to ensure the PLA’s “absolute obedience” to the CCP and CMC Chairman. The CCP’s anti-graft outfit, the Central Discipline Inspection Commission (CDIC), weeded out corrupt officers and those of doubtful loyalty and by September 2017 had dismissed over 4,885 officers, including 150 Generals. Each General in the PLA today has been appointed by Xi, who has also donned the operational role of the Commander-in-Chief.

With the PLA maintaining the number of delegates to the upcoming 20th Party Congress at 304, despite its downsizing by 3,00,000 personnel, it appears that the PLA’s representation in the new 20th CCP Central Committee (CC) will probably stay at 37 full members and 22 alternate members as in the outgoing 19th CCP CC. Its representation in the Politburo is similarly unlikely to be reduced. The PLA’s presence in the Party Congress would give Xi added leverage in the CCP CC.

Relevant to India is the attention being paid by Xi to the PLA Western Theatre Command (WTC). The largest of China’s five theatre commands, it exercises operational jurisdiction over China’s borders with Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal and Myanmar. Its tasks include protection of Chinese personnel and assets deployed on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Western Theatre Command was operationally responsible for the intrusions in the Ladakh region in April 2020 that activated the entire 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC).

In this backdrop of continuing tension and deployment of 60,000-70,000 troops each by India and China in the high-altitude eastern Ladakh, what is interesting is that the number of delegates representing the PLA WTC at the 20th Party Congress is nearly double than that of the other four theatre commands. The WTC has selected 30 delegates for the 20th Party Congress. There are other signs of the leadership’s attention to the WTC.

The Chinese President visited Lhasa on July 23, 2021, Chengdu on July 9, 2022, and Urumqi on July 15, 2022, where he met WTC officers. The WTC receives advanced military hardware and latest jet aircraft ahead of all other theatre commands, except the Eastern Theatre Command.

Massive infrastructure projects sanctioned by the 14th Five-Year Plan are scheduled for completion by 2030-35. These will upgrade the WTC’s military capabilities and include new railways, a new highway and 30 additional airfields in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and its surrounding areas.

Coincidentally, the timeline matches that in the article published in June 2013 by Hong Kong-based Wen Wei Po, projecting China’s war with India for the “reconquest of the southern Tibet” between 2035 and 2040.

Furthermore, there is little sign of abatement of the considerable widespread discontent inside China, further inflamed by the “zero Covid” policy and unending lockdowns.

A PLA Daily editorial had earlier warned that the United States could “use the tense domestic situation in China to fan the social upheaval and provoke social conflict.”

“Colour revolutions” is a serious worry for the Chinese leadership. Significant for China’s neighbours and India is the fresh warning issued just weeks before the 20th Party Congress via a commentator’s article, which conveys the views of the CCP CC.

This commentator’s article in the People’s Daily last week stated that the world has become increasingly turbulent and more prone to change. In an unusually candid admission, it said the “country’s security situation has become increasingly unstable and uncertain.” It disclosed the CCP leadership’s concern at the increasingly “prominent issues” related to maritime disputes and the “increased likelihood of chaos on our doorstep”, thus making the task of “defending the country’s political security and social stability more formidable.”

The latest warning clearly implies that Xi is facing a difficult period and will be on the edge. The CCP cadres, public security apparatus and the PLA, including the WTC, are certainly on high alert. In case the situation doesn’t improve, or deteriorates, and the CCP’s authority and legitimacy are perceived as beginning to erode, Xi will be tempted to divert attention and resort to military actions abroad. The developments in Ukraine will be a factor in his calculations. In this backdrop, any expectation, prompted by disingenuous Chinese media comments or the disengagement at Gogra-Hot Springs, that Xi will change his attitude or policy towards India is unfounded and premature.

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The Pakistanis wanted to use the opportunity to convert it into a state visit. The Chinese refused to entertain Pakistani requests. They also asked the Pakistanis to cut down Imran’s entourage to just about four ministers from the nearly dozen that the Pakistani Prime Minister was planning to take with him. Even the audience with the Emperor was granted after a lot of entreaties from the Pakistani side. There was some speculation in Pakistani media whether Xi would even meet Imran. In the end, however, both the Chinese premier and the president held ‘brief’ meetings with Imran. The Pakistanis had also sought a meeting with the Russian president who was also in Beijing at the same time. But the Russians did not make time for a bilateral between Putin and Imran.

On the eve of the visit, the Pakistani media had published stories about all the goodies that would be bestowed by Xi on Imran. There was talk of Russia and Kazakhstan giving a billion dollars each in addition to a $3-billion loan from China. The total money expected from China was around $11 billion – about $4 billion in rollover of earlier debt, about $4.5 billion in credit-swap arrangements (which is used less for funding trade with China – its original purpose – and more for funding balance of payments) and an additional $3 billion in other loans. But closer to the visit, the Pakistani officials debunked all these reports about the loans that were being expected.

It was clear that the goody bag Imran was expecting in return for paying obeisance in the court of Emperor Xi was going to be a lot lighter than what was being originally expected. From what is available in the public domain, the only real worthwhile thing to come from the visit was the ‘Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation under CPEC’ between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Pakistan’s Board of Investment. This agreement is expected to provide the foundation for the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But bulk of the heavy lifting under this framework agreement has to be done by Pakistan. Given the past track record of the Pakistanis, this appears to be a very onerous task especially since none of the Special Economic Zones have so far delivered even the basic facilities to potential investors.

The Joint Statement was full of verbiage – the standard homilies being paid to the ‘all weather friendship’ between the two ‘Iron Brothers’, and the usual encomiums that Pakistanis heap on Xi’s visionary leadership, the various accomplishments of China and the Pakistani support to One China, and on Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, blah, blah blah. In return, the Chinese “reaffirmed their support for Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and security”. Nothing new here.

Similarly, despite the Pakistanis playing up the purported Chinese backing on Kashmir, the formulation in the Joint Statement was pretty standard, no different from what the Chinese have said so many times in the past: Kashmir issue was a dispute left from history, and should be properly and peacefully resolved based on the UN charter, relevant Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements. China opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the situation. If anything, the ‘unilateral actions’ bit is something of a double-edged sword. While it cuts at India in the context of the constitutional reforms in Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019, it also cuts at Pakistani plans to annex Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (what they euphemistically call “Azad Jammu and Kashmir”) and the Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) region.

Out of the six-page Joint Statement, around one page was about CPEC and how both sides were committed to the ambitious project that has been in a sort of go-slow mode ever since Imran Khan became Prime Minister in 2018. But notwithstanding all the hackneyed formulations on CPEC – “win-win enterprise”, “pivotal for regional prosperity” – and promises to re-energise it and “safeguard it from all threats and negative propaganda”, there are serious problems affecting the CPEC. The Pakistanis are already in default on some of the payments they owe the Chinese power plants set up under CPEC. Nearly seven years after they agreed to set up a revolving fund to ensure that there is no circular debt in Chinese power projects, this fund has still not been set up. There are also reports of Pakistan seeking renegotiations on the contracts they have signed with the Chinese. But the Chinese are not ready to cut any slack for their ‘sweeter than honey’ friends. In addition, one of the most crucial components of CPEC was the ML-1 rail line connecting Peshawar to Karachi. This project continues to hang in limbo because there is as yet no agreement on the financing. The Pakistanis have no money to pay their side of the $6-8 billion cost of this railway line.

As if this were not enough, there is the entire security question. The Pakistanis have raised a force of over 10,000 to guard the Chinese. But there have been regular attacks against the Chinese. While most of these attacks have so far been carried out by Baloch freedom fighters, there have also been instances of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants targeting the Chinese. The attack on Chinese engineers and workers working on the Dasu Dam project has cost Pakistan heavy in terms of compensations demanded by the Chinese. The recent attacks in Noshki, Panjgur and Kech in Balochistan would have certainly set off alarm bells in China. The massive protests in Gwadar would also have spooked the Chinese. Add to this the unsettled conditions in Afghanistan, where the Taliban are showing no signs of curbing Islamist militants targeting both China and Pakistan. There are, therefore, serious doubts on how much private Chinese investment will come to Pakistan under the second phase of CPEC. If the second phase doesn’t take off, Pakistan will find it difficult, even impossible, to service the Chinese debt.

Clearly, the economic glue to the China-Pakistan relationship is coming unstuck. But it would be a mistake to reach the conclusion that China-Pakistan strategic relationship is getting fractured. There is absolutely no sign of that because neither side can afford a divorce, or even a separation. This is despite the fact that there are people in Pakistan who are now realising the perils and pitfalls of getting in too deep with the Chinese. But efforts to balance the relationship with China with the relationship with the West is easier said than done. For now, for Pakistan, China is the only game in town. The Chinese too are in no position to turn their back on Pakistan. Chances are they will use their leverages to extract whatever they can but they will not let things reach break point. Even so, the first signs of strains are starting to appear in the Chi-Pak relationship, and all the spin being put on Imran Khan’s visit to Beijing isn’t going to cover this up.

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