As we go to press, Hamas has launched a surprise attack on Israeli settlements by defeating highly sophisticated technological surveillance infrastructure, killed more than 1,200 people and taken over 200 hostage on 7 October 2024. The deception, surprise, suddenness, and lightning speed of the attack totally flabbergasted Israel’s security establishment so much so that it took them a while for them to regain control of the situation and retaliate.
In the wake of the terror attack in Israel, immediate lessons need to be learnt.
India needs to have a crisis management response framework at the national level on extreme terrorist scenarios.
The scale and proportion of the unprecedented terror attack in Israel would never have been envisaged as the terrorists could get under the radar of extremely hi-tech sensors and perpetrated unimaginable atrocities.
While reliance on technology is imperative, it has to be complemented by highly skilled personnel who are at the pinnacle of their craft. We need to constantly invest in the skill upgradation of our personnel who are the ultimate redeemers in a terrorist response mechanism, ultimately it is the man and the weapon which make the final difference.
Intelligence failures can happen. No doubt there was a massive failure of intelligence. At the collection level, at the analysis level and at the top, where leaders may have not accepted the threat assessment.
HUMINT remains an important source and agencies dealing with counter-terrorism and should not ignore human assets even during peace or cease fire time. Analysts making assessments must consider all the inputs, which may on the face appear against their perception. While dealing with terrorism, the top leadership should not be complacent.
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Terrorist groups like Hamas, Taliban, ISIS, etc, who have bases in foreign countries, can develop their capabilities avoiding detection. they have better opportunities to develop their capabilities. Intelligence sharing and collaboration with friendly foreign countries has gained significance. In this case warnings from Egypt about unsual activities in the Gaza strip were ignored by Israel.
Hams had a wide and elaborate network of tunnels to avoiding detection, launching ambushes, and ensuring supplies. Terror groups are known to have used tunnels to infiltrate into India. The network may be larger than is known.
Israeli Iron-Dome missile defence system worked well against rocket attacks, the border fencing, considered impenetrable fell to Hamas bulldozers. Hamas also used drones to attack successfully Israeli tanks. Motorised paragliders were used to infiltrate Israel.
India’s long borders with several countries needs guarding round-the-clock. But border security and counter-measures against intruders deserve more attention.
There is also a need for border-guarding forces to carry out an in-depth analysis of the Israel-Hamas conflict and draw lessons to stave off such threats from both state and non-state actors ably supported by adversaries.
India faces threats not only from across land borders but maritime as well. 13 major and minor sea ports handle 95% volume of the foreign trade. The trade is facilitated by over 51,000 vessels comprising 14% of the global seafarers, which are registered. Other than that, there are a large number of small boats, dhows and many other types of vessels. Identification or classification of non-traditional threats is a daunting task.
India’s defence establishment needs to carry out realistic analysis to detect weaknesses in intelligence set up and make the intelligence grid dynamic and those responsible to be more accountable. Technical intelligence infrastructure must also be improved. In addition, human intelligence must be given a premium as there is no substitute to human intelligence.
In some ways the Hamas attack and Israel’s retaliation has shown that:
Confidence in your abilities is good, but over confidence, as the Israeli leadership showed, is counter productive.
There is no need to mollycoddle terrorists. They need to be dealt firmly. Peaceful coexistence policy with terrorists does not work. Nip terrorism in the bud.
Terror and talks cannot go together. Negotiating and expecting peace with those who have terror in mind can prove to be very costly. Destroy terror using all available means.
The Government must look after the armed forces, in that they must be given to means and allowed to act professionally against terrorists.
National unity is a pre-requisite to take effective action against terrorists.
