With hundreds of thousands of deaths and ever-increasing rates of infection, the world is going through one of the worst pandemics in recent history. When even routine plans of almost every government in the world are either halted or slowed down, China’s demonstration of elevated confidence and renewed expansionist ambitions challenge its claim of being a victim of coronavirus and reinforce theories of it being a Chinese virus, originating from some random bioweapon experimentation.
In between this coronavirus-led chaos, Australia faced a serious cyber attack, which it blamed on a rival foreign government and China came into the frame again. After cyber and bio attacks, lethal drone wars are the inevitable future and it is not a mere coincidence that our neighbor is leading in this front, too. The latest report (released in January 2020) by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) puts China as the second-largest arms producer in the world (behind the United States but ahead of Russia) and in achieving this rank, its combat drone exports have played a major role. According to some media reports, within a decade (from 2008 to 2018) China emerged as the third-largest exporter of multi-role strike-capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), next after Israel and USA.
The proliferation of Chinese drones in the Middle East and African markets is one of the highly discussed matters in the western press. In 2017, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to purchase 300 Chinese UAVs and to build a drone manufacturing and servicing facility in Saudi Arabia, with focus on producing Cai Hong-series drones. The deal was a part of a $65 billion cooperation agreement signed between the two countries. According to some Chinese military experts, earlier in February 2017, the Saudi Technology Development and Investment Company (TAQNIA) had signed a protocol with China’s Aerospace Long-March International Trade (ALIT) for the drone production line at the biennial International Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi. TAQNIA is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, while ALIT is a Chinese export-import company that specializes in aerospace technologies.
Some of these trends should alert us as well because, gradually, the terror harboring hub – Pakistan – has become a top Chinese drone buyer. In 2018, China and Pakistan reached an agreement to co-produce 48 Wing Loong II long-endurance drones.
It is important here to note that on 20 June 2020, a Chinese drone ferrying arms and ammunition from Pakistan into the Indian side was shot down by the Border Security Force (BSF) along the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir’s Kathua district. These events may look insignificant by themselves but cannot be easily ignored. Some other key buyers of Chinese drones are countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, Ethiopia, Iraq, Jordan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Turkmenistan, and Zambia.
Chinese drones often get compared with the Israeli and United States’ unmanned aerial systems but a product wise analysis reveals that China is gradually capturing the market. Between 2008 and 2018, China delivered 163 Cai Hong/Wing Loong series drones, surpassing the 35 Reaper/Predator drones exported by the US and the 166 Hermes/Heron TP drones sold by Israel. Some experts blame cheap pricing (an art which China has mastered) and the United States export control regulations (which strictly regulate the proliferation of combat drones), i.e., Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), as the key factors behind expanding Chinese drone dominance.
BRI Push Aligned With Drone Exports
While the Western press was making some early assumptions about China’s Belt and Road initiative being halted due to Covid-19 after impact, the Chinese government was determined to present a different narrative. By conducting a “High-level video-conference on Belt and Road international cooperation” on 18 June, during the so-called ‘second wave’ of the pandemic, China tried hard to demonstrate its determination in continuing this trillion-dollar ambition. Whether Covid-19 will affect the trajectory of BRI or not only time will tell but some interesting case studies have highlighted that many countries importing Chinese drones lie along the track of China’s Belt and Road trade route and a majority of them already come under China’s investments and loans periphery. The calculated expansion of China’s drone sales in African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries reflects the manner in which unmanned system sales are factored into China’s strategic posture. For example, some countries that are critical to BRI like Pakistan, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan all are now flying Chinese armed drones.
Until the Covid pandemic occurred, bio-warfare was merely and emerging global trend for us, which we were exploring, analyzing, and discussing with great curiosity and excitement. The pandemic came as an assault, at a time when India was unprepared, unaware and unwarned and its experiences have taught us that the nature of warfare is changing more drastically than we perceived and anticipated.
Status of India’s Drone Warfare capabilities
The current status of India’s drone warfare preparedness reflects that the country is yet to make a fair calculation about the challenges it may face in the absence of a proactive approach toward future threats. India tops the list of world’s drone importing nations and most of India’s unmanned aerial capabilities are imported. India’s military drone fleet is largely made up of IAI’s Searchers, Herons and Harops. Since 2017, talks between India and the United States on finalizing the deal for 22 to 30 Guardian drones have been going on and may get finalized soon.
India is making some efforts to initiate joint research & development (R&D) and UAV manufacturing units with the U.S. and Israeli public-private sector partners too. In recent years deals between Indian and foreign companies have been struck – Between Mahindra Defence and Aeronautics Ltd of Israel for shipborne UAVs, between Adani Defence & Aerospace and Israel-based Elbit Systems’ for joint UAV manufacturing facility based in Hyderabad (which was inaugurated in 2018 and now produces export quality UAV systems for the international markets) and between US aerospace major Boeing and Tata Advanced Systems Ltd (TASL) for manufacturing aerospace products, including unmanned aerial vehicles, among others. During DefExpo 2020, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Israel Aerospace Industries and Dynamatic Technologies signed a MoU for joint manufacturing of UAVs. This partnership is expected to yield a good result for the sector.
Several indigenous UAV and UCAV projects of the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) are underway and they are in different stages of completion (that includes up-gradation of some decades-old indigenous systems too) but the pace at which they are moving does not seem at par with the speed that India needs to build its drone warfare capabilities.
Project AURA and Ghatak. One of the most talked-about strategically crucial indigenous UCAV project of India is the Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft (AURA) – a provisional name given to the future UCAV Ghatak. The feasibility study of the project was completed in 2013. In May 2016, with initial funding of Rs 231 crore, the project was sanctioned by the government. The design work on the UCAV is to be carried out by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and IIT Kanpur. Ghatak UCAV is an autonomous stealthy unmanned aerial vehicle. It is in the D&D stage and a majority of its technical specifications are classified. There are possibilities that indigenous stealth UCAV Ghatak will be powered by a 52kn dry variant of indigenously developed Kaveri engine.
DRDO Rustom. India’s indigenous Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV, which is available with three variants – Rustom I (tactical UAV with an endurance of 12 hours), Rustom H (larger UAV with a flight endurance of over 24 hours) and Rustom II (long-endurance UCAV), which is now called Tactical Airborne Platform for Aerial Surveillance-Beyond Horizon-201 (TAPAS-BH-201). According to some recent media reports, the new weaponized platform Rustom II, loaded with advanced features is all set for its first test flight this year.
Lakshya Pilotless Target Aircraft. Lakshya was inducted into the Indian Air Force, Indian Navy and Indian Army in 2000, 2001 and 2003 respectively. Its variant – Lakshya-1 – is used to perform discreet aerial reconnaissance of battlefield and target acquisition. According to DRDO’s official statement “Lakshya is a cost-effective re-usable high subsonic aerial target system powered by a gas turbine engine and launched either from land or ship. It carries two tow targets of lengths of 1.5 km each having radar, IR or visual signature augmentation, and Miss Distance Indication Scoring System.” It is comparable in the same class of vehicles such as Northrop BQM-74 Chukar (US Navy). On 16 March 2017, the latest version of aircraft Lakshya-2 was successfully flight-tested.
Nishant Multi Mission Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. According to DRDO’s official records “Nishant is a multi-mission UAV with day/night capability used for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance, target tracking & localization, and artillery fire correction.” The air vehicle has “autonomous flight capabilities and is controlled from a user-friendly ground control station.” Nishant is a highly mobile, compact, and easily deployable system. Nishant is said to be comparable in the same class of vehicles such as IAI’s Searcher.
Micro & Mini UAVs. Some good developments are going on in the micro and mini UAVs category. Three MAVs, namely, Black Kite, Golden Hawk, and Pushpak have been designed and developed by Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) along with CSIR-National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL). These vehicles have an endurance of 20 minutes to one hour. ADE and NAL have developed two variants of 2 kg-class fixed-wing mini UAVs – Imperial Eagle and Skybird, primarily for the NSG and military services. Both are said to be comparable in the same class such as Raven (small UAV of US military).
Apart from that, DRDO’s Research and Development Establishment (R&DE) and an Indian drone startup, IdeaForge, jointly developed a light-weight, autonomous mini UAV Netra (also called Netra Quadcopter) for surveillance and reconnaissance operations. As of now, BSF, CRPF, NDRF Maharashtra and Gujarat state police forces are some of the key operators of Netra. This year, IdeaForge also signed a pact with L&T for developing integrated high tech drone and anti-drone solutions. There are several other enthusiastic startups and MSMEs, which have the ability to develop best in class unmanned aerial system. They need strong support from the government and big private sector players to explore their true potential.
Need for Disruptive Moves
Drones and air defence systems that can combat them are the future and for many parts of the world drone wars are the present reality. From the last decade, we have watched drones becoming the most potent tool of proxy wars and, frequently, the big powers and their adversaries have targeted each other. One thing which India must learn is that in this domain, we have to confront an innovative enemy, who is already ahead of the curve.
At the same time, we need to recall that until India tested its Anti Satellite (ASAT) weapon (Mission Shakti on 27 March 2019) it was lagging in the race for ASAT capabilities. It took strong political will, well-coordinated efforts and determination to make India the fourth space power in the world. Our experience of the unprecedented success of Mission Shakti tells us that India can think ahead of its time and needs to deal with future threats with powerful technologies. Anti-drone technology and drone swarms are the two trends where India needs to put more focus on, in parallel to innovating with the existing drone technologies (but on a much faster pace). With countries like China dominating the UAV/UCAV space, chances of this technology ending in the hands of terrorists and authoritarian regimes are high. This will be more catastrophic for the world than any pandemic. India being a responsible nation must disrupt this trend. India has some good defence partners who would be willing to join India in these efforts. The time for working in that direction has come.
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Major Chinese UAVs and UCAVs – A Snapshot
Wing Loong Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV)
Medium altitude long endurance (MALE) Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) Wing Loong is developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Design & Research Institute (CADI, a division of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China). In 2008, the first member of the Wing Loong series introduced into the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) service and ten years later in 2018, Wing Loong’s next-generation export version – Wing Loong II (also known as Gongji-2 or GJ-2) – officially joined the PLAAF.
Wing Loong II is capable of carrying a payload of up to 400 kg, can fly for about 20 hours with a maximum speed of 370 km/ per hour, and has an operational radius of 1,500 kilometers. Wing Loong II, can be armed with a variety of weapons including laser-guided bombs and missiles. According to the Air Force Technology news platform, it’s weaponry options include AKD-10 air-to-surface anti-tank missile, BRMI-90 90mm guided rocket, FT-7/130 small 130kg bomb with planar wing, FT-9/50 50kg bomb for drones, FT-10/25 25kg bomb, GB-7/50 50kg precision-guided munition (PGM) and GB-4/100 PGM. It is fitted with an electro-optical payload pod with integrated day-light and infrared cameras and sensors which help in collecting surveillance data and targeting. Wing Loong II has been marketed by Chinese manufacturers as a cheaper alternative to United States’ MQ-1 Predator. According to some media outlets, Wing Loong II’s per-unit price is estimated at around $1-2 million in comparison to MQ-9 Reaper’s $30 million, which speaks a lot about its increasing market dominance.
CASC Rainbow Series
Cai Hong (abbreviated as CH) is a series of an unmanned aerial vehicles developed by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics, a research wing of CASC (China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation). Popular products of CASC rainbow series are CH-3, CH-4, and CH-5. An overview of its capacity can help in understanding the pace at which China is advancing its drone warfare capabilities:
CASC CH-3 Rainbow UCAV. CH-3 is the armed version of CH-1 and CH-2 unarmed drone series. The first test flight of CH-3 was done in 2007 and it made its debut at the 2008 Zhuhai Air Show. With 80 kg of payload capacity, 8-meter wingspan, 12 hours of endurance window, 2400 km of range, and 4 km of service ceiling, CH-3 provides modern tactical over-battlefield capabilities at a lesser cost, which earned it some buyers like Nigerian and Pakistani armies.
CASC CH-4 Rainbow UCAV. Often compared in looks with General Atomics’ MQ-9 Reaper UCAVs, CH-4 is China’s one of the best selling armed reconnaissance drones in the international market. CH-4 is currently marketed in two forms – CH-4A- primarily for reconnaissance operations and CH-4B – for armed reconnaissance and strike role. With 345kg of payload capacity and up to 30 hours of endurance, CH-4 is capable of firing an air-to-ground missile from an altitude of 5,000 meters. Its current known operators are Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, where talks regarding local productions are also going on.
CASC CH-5 Rainbow UCAV. The latest in the UCAV rainbow series CH-5 is claimed to be one of the most capable attacks and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles. With a wingspan of 21 meters, a payload capacity of 1200kg, a service ceiling of 7000 meters, an endurance of up to 60 hours, and a range of 10000 km, CH-5 is giving a good competition to United States’ MQ-9 Reaper and Israel’s Heron TP. According to the China Power project platform, the Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) of the CH-5 is approximately 3,300 kg (7,275 lbs), which is about 1,500 kg less than the Reaper and 2,100 kg less than the Heron TP.
CH-5’s first flight was conducted in 2015 and in 2017, the CASC announced that the drone is ready for mass production. CH-5 can carry up to 16 air-to-ground weapons/missiles at a single time. According to Chinese media, the CH-5 can be “operated by an undergraduate student with basic knowledge of aviation after only one or two days of training.”
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The export version of the Wing Loong II UCAV is known as Gongji-2 or GJ-2
Rustom II (long-endurance UCAV), is now called Tactical Airborne Platform for Aerial Surveillance-Beyond Horizon-201 (TAPAS-BH-201).
