Maj Gen (Dr) GD Bakshi, SM, VSM
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that had started out as a war of manoeuvre quickly morphed into an attrition nightmare where several cities are surrounded and being savagely pounded. Generals do end up fighting the last war. In 2008 and 2014, there had been virtually zero resistance and initial Russian plans this time were based on a quick collapse of the Ukrainian forces. The Russians had not counted on the Western genius for creating and exacerbating fault lines within peoples. Once Slav brothers, the people of Russia and Ukraine are sworn enemies today.
As we go to press, the Russians have apparently called off their offensive on Kiev, which they have claimed was a diversionary move to ensure critical sectors in the east were not reinforced. They have achieved a clean break and are regrouping forces for a concerted offensive in the East (Donbas) and the South coast of the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Their attempt seems to be to partition Ukraine along the Dnieper river.
In this issue we have carried out a very detailed and objective analysis of the war in Ukraine. Since 70 per cent of our cutting edge equipment is of Russian origin we have a vital stake in an objective and truthful analysis. Truth unfortunately is the first casualty in any war. The CIA has deployed an army of some 3,00,000 cyber warriors to hack Russian computer networks and fill the social media with morphed images from war game videos and old conflicts to paint daily narratives of Ukraine’s great victory and an imminent fall of Moscow and Putin. (Quite incidentally, Putin’s popularity ratings have gone above 80 per cent in Russia. Biden’s have dropped steeply). Former US and UK media consultants are mounting strident campaigns on the electronic and print media to paint a military victory for Ukraine. America has clearly won the war of narratives on social media and TV screens. There is a danger, however, of believing your own propaganda as truth.
Russia may have erred initially. However, it has quickly readjusted to the new reality of a very dense anti-tank and shoulder-fired SAM envelope and has calibrated operations accordingly. It is clear that there will be no US/NATO boots on the ground or any No Fly Zones. So Russia is in no particular hurry. It is slowly but methodically wearing down the Ukrainian forces in an unrelenting, meat grinder war of attrition. Ukrainian tank and aircraft manufacturing plants have been destroyed, refineries and oil storage depots gutted and almost all nuclear plants captured (along with some 32 US-funded bio labs). Gas, water and power supply in Eastern and Southern Ukraine are now all in Russian hands. Some 40 towns have been razed to the ground. The asymmetry in military power is far too skewed. Each day that the war lasts will tilt the scales further in Russia’s favour. Yet, western strategy is to extend this war for a few months to bleed the Russians and spite Putin. In the bargain, they are prepared to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian man and building standing.
Russia has fired over a 1000 Iskandar tactical ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles and other PGMs. The destruction of infrastructure has been grim. An Israeli expert has said that since Russian military might is far superior, relentless destruction of infrastructure and sustained military pressure could lead to collapse of will of Ukrainian government. It could culminate in partition of Ukraine along Dniper river.
In sum, the Russian initial campaign was premised upon faulty intelligence. In addition cultural factors – a feeling of kinship with Ukrainians as fellow Slavs, led Russians to show uncharacteristic restraint in force usage in the initial phase of war. We could also see the tension between Gen Grasimov’s New Hybrid War Doctrine and standard Russian way of war fighting with very heavy reliance on fire power. After initial setbacks, however, they have readjusted tactics rapidly and are now fighting a methodical battle of attrition. In the long run.
Ukraine is taking fearful punishment and this is bound to tell on ground over time. The economic sanctions that seek to imperil Russia’s economic existence over time may well have lowered the nuclear threshold. Any spill over of conflict beyond Ukraine’s border could lead to serious escalation. Russia has been deliberately withholding its cutting edge equipment from Ukraine in anticipation of a larger war with NATO. (Eg, so far we have not seen any T-14 Armata tanks or Su-57 stealth fighters in Ukraine).
